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Grinder Finance: Prerelease Week Edition

Editor’s note: Jim Casale is back this week with his second Grinder Finance article. This series is perfect for the average player looking to stretch their Magic budget just a little bit more, so enjoy!

By Jim Casale

So with the prerelease looming this weekend, it’s a good time to talk about what to do before a new set release. I will preface this by saying that, 99% of the time, it’s not worth pre-ordering new cards. The ones that are pre-ordering quickly become not worth pre-ordering and written media is not a quick enough media to inform you of good buys. For that reason, I intend this article to expand on the ways to self evaluate cards and determine if they are worth ordering for you.

An important distinction to make is how this set fits into the rotation scheme and how it affects drafting. Sets that are released and replace the booster packs that are currently being drafted have a different impact on older cards than sets that change or add to the current draft format. For example, the release of Fate Reforged did not remove Khans of Tarkir completely from the draft format. Yes you drafted one less pack, but it is still being opened. What this meant is that the supply of cards from Khans of Tarkir was still increasing while the bottleneck for deck building would be cards from Fate Reforged. Unlike in Modern, Standard bottlenecks are quickly solved by the supply of cards from drafts and Magic Online redemption (although this happens much later).

Vryn

Being able to predict the bottlenecks for decks is a difficult task, but very rewarding if you are able to figure it out. Standard has the same style of bottlenecking that is more pronounced in Modern but it lasts for a much shorter period of time. When the Esper Dragons deck became popular in Standard, Dragonlord Ojutai was a $35 or more card for a few weeks, not months or years like in the case with Modern. Being able to stay ahead of that crowd by purchasing cards during their cheap period is the way to make playing Magic more affordable.

Now what we have now with Magic Origins is a completely new draft format. The bottlenecks for the upcoming standard will likely be cards from Khans of Tarkir block and the absolute most powerful all-star cards from Magic Origins. Due to the fact that Dragons of Tarkir was not drafted as much as Khans of Tarkir despite being a large set since drafting was cut off early with the release of Modern Masters 2015, I think the cards in the set have the largest ability to get expensive. We’ve already seen how many great cards have come out of the set despite it being one the lowest pre-order prices in recent history. I am going to suggest anyone who doesn’t own all the cards from Dragons of Tarkir that they might play to pick them up quickly.

Outside of the obviously power cards like the Dragonlords, Deathmist Raptor, Collected Company, and Kolaghan’s Command, there are a lot of cards that don’t get enough appreciation. I’m going to highlight a few I’ve even begun to grab in the past few weeks to bolster my collection.

  • Ojutai’s Command & Silumgar’s Command: We’ve seen from the other 3 Dragonlords’ Commands, the power level is there it just needs to find a use for the modes. Despite the fact that Ojutai’s Command is the Buy-A-Box promo, I think it has room to grow. It has a lot of upside being able to return the new Jace and Gideon planeswalkers to the battlefield. With the impending rotation of Hero’s Downfall, Silumgar’s Command is the only card able to destroy planeswalkers. That alone may bring up its playability.
  • Den Protector: You almost always see Deathmist Raptor accompanied with Den Protector but there are also many green decks that will just play Den Protector by itself. At a $5-6 rare from an under-opened large set it doesn’t have a lot of financial upside but can see a week or two where supply is pressured due to the “Deck of the Month” syndrome and you’ll wish you already owned them.
  • Ojutai’s Exemplars, Risen Executioner, Dragon Whisperer, Shaman of the Forgotten Ways, Dragonlord Kolaghan: What do all of these cards have in common? They’re pretty close to bulk level mythics and have decent enough stats to see Standard play. With a lot of important Theros staples rotation soon, I don’t think there will be a cheaper time to pick these up. The downside is that you never play them in the next year and they stay the same price.
  • Soulfire Grand Master: Wait, what? This isn’t from Dragons of Tarkir. Well if you thought that, you are correct. This is a personal opinion of mine but I think Soulfire Grand Master will fit perfectly into the upcoming metagame. It’s at an all time low and casual appeal should continue to keep it buoyed for the next few years. I can see it filling a similar role to Rakshasa Deathdealer and Fleecemane Lion because it is a 2 mana creature that can eat your excess mana later in the game for value. Fate Reforged is a rather unpopular set so there could be supply problems in the future.

 

So enough about old cards, what do I buy from the new set? The only thing I’d recommend ordering is painlands if you don’t already own them. We’ll have them for another few months and it’s unlikely you’ll be able to pick them up for much less than $2. It’s hard to go wrong when the old Core set lands are still worth a few dollars after being printed into oblivion. I’m honestly not very jazzed on the price points of many of these cards. I think the trajectory will look a lot like M15 and we will see large price drops across the board in the next month or so. I’ve personally only ordered 3 Erebos’ Titan because I know I will be playing them on release day but nothing else really strikes me as worth buying currently.

Day's Undoing

That being said, I’m cautiously optimistic about a few cards. The more times I read Gilt-Leaf Winnower the more I think it’s a lot like Flame-Tongue Kavu and less like Skinthinner.   I’m going to try to pick up some at the prerelease for a buck or two and hang onto them for later. It’s hard to evaluate the Menace ability but if this was a 5 mana 4/3 flyer it would probably get a lot more looks. I think there is a strong parallel to Icefall Regent as it also has a relevant tribal type and evasion.

I’m also pretty interested in picking up some Mizzium Meddlers on release day as it will be a promo given to everyone. I think the card could see some looks in Modern as a replacement that fills in for Spellskite while Kolaghan’s Command remains popular.

That being said I hope you enjoy the pre-release and next week I’ll talk more about Modern and the future impact of reprints on the price of decks.

MTGFinance: What We’re Buying & Selling This Week (July 5/15)

By James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

One of the most common misconceptions about folks involved in MTGFinance is that we are constantly manipulating the market and feeding players misinformation to help fuel achievement of our personal goals.

It has occurred to us at MTGPrice that though we dole out a good deal of advice, most of you ultimately have very little insight into when and why our writing team actually puts our money where our collective mouths are pointing. As such running this weekly series breaking down what we’ve been buying and selling each week and why. These lists are meant to be both complete and transparent, leaving off only cards we bought for personal use without hope of profit. We’ll also try to provide some insight into our thinking behind the specs, and whether we are aiming for a short (<1 month), mid (1-12 month), or long (1 year+) term flip. Here’s what we we’ve been up to this week:

Buying Period: June 29th – July 5th, 2015

Note: All cards NM unless otherwise noted. All sell prices are net of fees unless noted.

James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

BOUGHT

So I finally landed the Big Kahuna Burger of collections this weekend, paying $14K for a collection that looks like it will end up being worth north of $30K. I’m going to be turning the handling of this collection into a new mid-term article series, providing transparency into the world of collection flipping, so keep an eye out for that on Friday this week. As such, for the first time in a long while, I didn’t purchase any singles this week, opting out entirely from the very tasty Origins pre-order opportunities to focus on the collection. I’ll be covering off potentially undervalued cards from the new set on Wednesday this week in the latest installment of Digging for Dollars. 

SOLD (Pucatrade)

  • 1x Shared Animosity  @ $7.01 ($2 cost)
  • 2x Mindbreak Trap @ $6.79 ($2 cost)

Just a few odds and ends I moved through Pucatrade this week.

Guo Heng Chin (@theguoheng)

Guo says:

All those below were acquired at GP Singapore.

BOUGHT

  • 2x Wurmcoil Engine (Prerelease promo) at $11/per: I bought it from a friend, hence the exceptionally low price. Vendors were selling it at around this price too at the Grand Prix. These are Wurmcoils 2 and 3 for my RG Tron.
  • 2x Painter’s Servant at $10/per: In my previous weekly purchases update (https://blog.mtgprice.com/2015/06/22/mtgfinance-what-were-buyingselling-this-week-june-2115/), I mentioned that I acquired a Painter’s Servant to try out it’s synergy with Ugin, the Spirit Dragon in this funky Tron build that surfaced in Tokyo a while back: http://www.mtgtop8.com/event?e=9272&d=253286&f=MO. I bought 2 more Painter’s Servants at the GP to tinker around with the ‘combo’. It’s a purely casual win-more synergy and under no circumstances should be brought to a competitive event. It’s helluva fun though. I may try and integrate the Ugin-Painter’s Servant combo into my EDH decks because I am a fun guy to play with.
  • 2x Karn Liberated (MMA2015) at $33/per:  I got these slightly lower than the fair trade price from a vendor due to plain luck, something I rarely attribute good deals to but in this case, it probably was a stroke of luck. Most of the vendors at the GP kept their displayed cards in perfect fit sleeves and marked the price of individual cards on the perfect fit sleeve using marker pen. The vendor I approached dug up the second copy of Karn from their box, which was why it wasn’t in a perfect fit sleeve. She then proceeded to scribble a ’49SGD’ on the back of Karn Liberated himself, before realising that the second copy of Karn was unsleeved. It turned out that it was their last copy of Karn as well. So she agreed to give me a bit of a discount on the total purchase (the original price of the Karns were $36 each) and gave me on of the foils in my purchase for free (foil Conspiracy Silent Arbiter).
  • 1x Foil Unburial Rites (Japanese) at $6/per: I‘ve read multiple accounts that UW Gifts Tron is an extremely fun deck to play, so I gave it a shot while testing for GP Singapore as I was lacking the expensive components of RG Tron. They were not exaggerating at all. While the deck is not exactly tier one, the deck was immensely satisfying to pilot. There is an incredible number of permutations of Gifts pile you could play around with and the deck could attack from a multitude of angles. I’ve decided to keep Gifts Tron as a permanent deck in my Modern repertoire and so I’ve begun the arduous quest of foiling it out.
  • 1x Iona, Shield of Emeria at $10/per:  For my Gifts Tron. I didn’t have an Iona as she was quite pricey prior to her Modern Masters 2015 reprint and I was replacing her with Sundering Titan, which was not as good as I thought it would be. GPs are good place to get deals from vendors as the $10 Iona testified.
  • 1x Emrakul, the Aeons Torn (Prerelease Promo) at $28/per: Another piece of RG Tron sorted out. Now to wait for a Grove of the Burnwillows reprint and I’ll be able to RG Tron-stomp my opponents. In the mean time I’ll experiment with the Mono-G Tron that showed up in a Modern daily a while back.
  • 19x Snow-Covered Mountains, 3x Snow-Covered Swamps, 1x Snow-Covered Forest at $0.74 per: Another acquisition for a Modern archetype I’ve been itching to try: Skred Red. Modern cards are not easy to find in Malaysia, and could be quite expensive. GP Singapore was a great opportunity for me to grab the Modern cards I need to complete certain decks. The Snow-Covered Swamps and Forest were for EDH.
  • 1x Snow-Covered Island @ $1.48 per: Another missing piece for Gifts Tron, for those rare situations where I am so desperate for a second blue source I Gifts up a Snow-Covered Island.
  • 2x Magus of the Tabernacle at $0.37/perFrom reader and fellow mtgfinance enthusiast Daryl (@mtgProjectZer0). Sometime ago I mentioned that I was attempting to brew a Modern incarnation of MUD. One of the version I toyed with splashed white for Ghostly Prison and Ethersworn Canonist. Taking a bit of inspiration off a Mono-White Stax deck posted here http://puremtgo.com/articles/mono-white-stax-legacy-modern a while back, I thought Magus of the Tabernacle may be a good addition. Thanks Daryl!

 

Note: The rest of the guys were quiet this week.

So there you have it. Now what were you guys buying and selling this week and why?

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

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PROTRADER: Guo’s Magic Origins Mythic Review Part I

By Guo Heng

The final mythic rare in Magic Origins has been spoiled (and sadly also Peter Mohrbacher’s last few pieces for Magic) and today we shall put the Magic Origins mythics under a financial microscope. First off, I would highly recommend checking out Magic Origins reviews from my fellow MTGPrice writers, Jared Yost and Derek Madlem. All the more for the fact that we have differing opinions on certain cards (I’m looking at you Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy).

The rest of this content is only visible to ProTrader members.

To learn how ProTrader can benefit YOU, click here to watch our short video.

expensive cardsProTrader: Magic doesn’t have to be expensive.

WEEKLY MTGPRICE.COM MOVERS: June 30/15

By James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

This week finds us in the throes of optimism over the potential of a several interesting new cards from the Magic Origins spoiler list. Compared to previous core sets, the final edition in the longstanding series looks set to add significantly more playable Modern cards to our collective deck design toolbox. Many of this week’s spikes derive directly from the unlocking of previously hidden potential, now freshly revealed due to these hot new slices of cardboard. Let’s see what we’re working with:

5 Winners of the Week

  1. Gilt-Leaf Palace (Lorwyn, Rare): $2.00 to $14.99 (+750%)

Gilt-Leaf Palace is just the latest in a long line of undervalued rare lands that spend a long time in the bulk bins before one day being yanked out by a spike that reveals their true potential. In this case it was the reveal of this card in Magic Origins that finally sealed the deal:

Shaman-of-the-Pack-Magic-Origins-Spoiler

So far I’m finding it hard to believe that Green/Black Elves is going to be definitively better than the CoCo/CoC mono-green version we have now.  Regardless, I have this silly rule about taking profits when I’m up 500%+ so I’ll be selling or trading off my small stash of this niche land shortly.

Verdict: Sell/Trade

Format(s): Modern/Casual

2. Auntie’s Hovel (Lorwyn, Rare): $3.04 to $14.99 (493%)

This land is up for similar reasons to Gilt-Leaf Palace, as the spoiling of Goblin Piledriver for Magic Origins now leaves the door open for a potential Tier 1 or 2 Modern deck that might want to splash black for discard, relevant black goblins or other tools. For those that don’t recall just how dangerous this card is, prepare to take a lesson from Goblin Rabblemaster playing with his new pal in Standard for a few months.

Goblin-Piledriver-Magic-Origins-Spoiler

Also similarly, the land is unproven, the profit taking potential is high, and I see no reason to cling to more than a playset until it hits a Top 8 table.

Verdict: Sell/Trade

Format(s): Modern/Casual

 

3. Quicken (M14/Eventide, Rare): $0.99 to $3.49 (+350%)

In the case of Quicken, it is the possibility of casting an end of turn Timetwister leading into an insane combo and/or aggro turn that has people excited about the best swipe at a modern Power 9 card since Treasure Cruise and Dig Through Time. Here’s the culprit:

undoing

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Now, keep in mind that the last three or four attempts at printing a less broken TimeTwister haven’t really gotten us anywhere. That being said, the reduction of the casting cost vs. prior versions to 2U should not be underestimated, as it means the card can be reliably cast in the early game to refill a hand that has been intentionally emptied before the opponent has had the chance to do much of anything.  I’m definitely from the camp that thinks someone will bust this card sooner or later, and I also feel relatively certain Quicken is one of the better ways to unlock it’s power, since it’s a cheap cantrip with relatively little downside. Quicken’s spike is a big one, but I think it’s going to be tough to scrape together more than a few bucks in profit per playset, so if I were holding these (and I’m not), I’d be fine with continuing to hold for 3-6 months to see what develops.

Format(s): Modern/Legacy/EDH/Casual

Verdict: Hold

 

4. Legion Loyalist (Gatecrash, Rare): $1.99 to $5.99  (+200%)

This is also spiking on the premise of a new Modern goblin deck. In this case Loyalist is being targeted as one of the most reliable ways of ensuring that Goblin Piledriver gets in for an impressive chunk of damage since it makes blocking profitably quite difficult for your opponent. It’s a pretty recent rare, with quite a few copies still floating around, so I’m inclined to sell or trade any spares, while holding back a playset to play with in case Goblins pays off as a serious contender in the format.

Format(s): Modern

Verdict: Sell/Trade

 

5. Warren Instigator (Zendikar, Rare): $10.00 to $20.00 (+100%)

Along with the other two cards above, Warren Instigator was targeted in a widespread buyout because of the Piledriver reprinting. The idea here is that Warren Instigator is a solid 2-drop in the deck that can help gets more threats into the red zone as fast as possible. As a double up that can easily yield $20+ per set right now after fees and expenses, I think getting out is a fine move, though there may be some additional upside to this card if and when the deck proves itself.

Format(s): Modern

Verdict: Sell

 

Most of the cards that have lost the most this week are also Magic Origins related, but in this case we’re talking about cards whose prices are dropping back to reality after the initial wave of hype wears off.

3 Top Losers of the Week

1. Kytheon, Hero of Akros (Origins, Mythic): $25.00 to $17.00 (-47%)

The verdict is still out on whether Kytheon/Gideon is just another useless Savannah Lions in Standard, or a multi-faceted tool for aggressive decks to lock up the game. Regardless, I expect most of the planeswalkers to drop down towards $12-15 once the set is actually opened, with a couple of spikes later appearing as people win a major tournament or two with 1-2 of them. (For the record, my money is actually on Nissa as the breakout ‘walker.)

kytheongideon

Verdict: Buy Under $15

 

2. Languish (Origins, Rare): $8 to 5.75 (-40%)

Languish is all set to be a major player in Standard for the next year or so, but as with most “sweeper” spells, it is already falling back towards the $3-5 range that they usually hold as rare cards. I won’t be buying my copies until they hit $4, and you probably shouldn’t either.

languish

Format(s): Standard

Verdict: Buy below $4

 

3. Liliana, Heretical Healer: $25.00 to $19.00 (-32%)

Liliana is in the same boat as the other Planeswalkers, but I do think she has the best chance of seeing play in Modern in some kind of low casting cost creature recursion and attrition build. Because there’s no existing build where she really slots in, I’m not in a rush to get my hands on her, and I may not jump in at all until I see a solid top table result appear.

Verdict: Hold Off For Results

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

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