One of the most common misconceptions about folks involved in MTGFinance is that we are constantly manipulating the market and feeding players misinformation to help fuel achievement of our personal goals.
It recently occurred to us here that though we dole out a good deal of advice, most of you ultimately have very little insight into when we actually put our money where our collective mouths are pointing. As such we’ve decided to run a weekly series simply breaking down what we’ve been buying and selling each week and why. These lists are meant to be both complete and transparent, leaving off only cards we bought without hope of profit, where appropriate. We’ll also try to provide some insight into our thinking behind the specs, and whether we are aiming for a short (<1 month), mid (1-12 month), or long (1 year+) term flip. Here’s what we were up to this week:
Buying Period: April 20 – April 26, 2015
Note: All cards NM unless otherwise noted. All sell prices are net of fees unless noted.
Most of my purchase activity again this week was dedicated to locking down a couple of cases of Modern Masters 2 on pre-order at a very solid price that helps ensure value regardless of the final set list. I moved in a bit on Risen Executioner as a potential answer to point removal and counterspell strategies dominating the Standard metagame, chiefly in the form of Esper Dragons. Executioner, played in a shell with enough Delve or recursion to selectively remove other creatures from the graveyard, has the potential to force through a lot of damage against the relatively ponderous control decks. The card is performing for me in my Abzan Final Form deck so far, so I’m happy to pick up a few sets of a small set mythic at $2.50 that could easily find upside during it’s tenure in the format while enjoying long term casual upside. If the card doesn’t break out soon, I’ll be looking to snag more copies around $2 in early summer. Similarly, Flamewake Phoenix is something I’m working on reinvigorating in a tempo based U/R/w shell using Frost Walker, Stratus Dancer, Ashcloud Phoenix, Rabblemaster, Ojutai and Dromoka to pressure Esper Dragons. $1.25 is a nice price for a good rare with some decent chance at upside. The rest of my paper buys were just opportunistic price snags.
Over on PucaTrade I continue to dump cards I expect are either peaking or likely to decline due to imminent reprint, with an eye to trading up into a $500-1000 card within a month or two of frequent trading.
“Based on the thoughts I had about Commander 2014 targets, I thought I would pick up Teferi based on casual popularity. Along with Freyalise, he is one of the most desired Commanders from the set. Most players agree that the blue deck is the weakest, and my thinking is that many sealed copies of the deck are probably still sitting on shelves across various stores. This makes picking up the singles from the deck a good play and I found a nice deal on Teferi.
I picked up Retract due to seeing this crazy Modern deck called Cheerios, featuring Retract as one of the combo enablers for the equipment drawing engine that Puresteel Paladin creates. I’m not sure if the deck is powerful enough to rise above the hate of the format but for near bulk rare prices I couldn’t pass it up as a speculation target.”
“Retract is in that funky Puresteel deck Gerry Thompson featured. It’s a Darksteel rare, 1 mana, powerful but niche effect, complete price floor currently at $.40 each.”
“I missed the boat on See the Unwritten at 300 points, and I believe it jumped as high as 600 points after Battle for Zendikar was announced. Now I’m getting them for an acceptable price of 410 points. The other three cards are for my cube. The Thirst for Knowledge was not at all near mint, but I chose not to report it because it’s 49 cents. I don’t know if that makes me nice or part of the problem. Of all the shock lands, I’m deepest in Steam Vents (thankfully). Every once in a while, I ship a few out to restock my Pucapoint stores. I’m a little surprised the Tectonic Edge promo isn’t higher, but with a potential reprint in Modern Masters 2015, I figured it couldn’t hurt too much to send it now. I’m pretty much out of Modern now, so I kept the one Deceiver Exarch in my cube and shipped the other three, because again, a reprint at common or uncommon would just kill the nearly $1 price. Finally, I lost value with the Blackcleave Cliffs by putting the stamp and the PucaTrade number on the envelope before noticing that it was a local who wanted the card. I probably could have salvaged the situation, but laziness won out when I could have saved myself the stamp and just met the dude at the LGS. Oh, well. In any case, I got this card for a dollar at Scars rotation, and I’m sick of waiting for it to go higher, so I shipped one out. I can’t imagine it will get a slot in MM15, but anything’s possible, I guess.”
Douglas Johnson (@roseofthorns)
BOUGHT
13x copies of Daretti, Scrap Savant @ $2.89/per
Douglas says:
“How many Planeswalkers in this game have an average cost of less than $5 and aren’t named Tibalt? Go ahead. Check. Daretti is an extremely powerful Commander in his own right, and fills a unique niche in the mono red Planeswalkers by having an artifact theme. I bought these from Troll and Toad, who also ships singles orders for free that total over $25. Even though this will likely be a long term hold if I’m aiming to sell for anything near $10, I have no doubt that these will be extremely easy to liquidate in my display case or trade out to local casual players for at least $5-6. “
So there you have it. Now what were you guys buying and selling this week and why?
James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.
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Welcome to the first instalment of Tiny Thursdays, a column dedicated to exploring Tiny Leaders decks, with an emphasis on the financial side of the cards used in the deck.
Tiny Leaders is a fledging format. After the Cambrian-like explosion the format experienced early this year, the hype for the Tiny Leaders simmered down. However that does not mean the format was a flash in a pan. While the incredible momentum that propelled the format during the early part of the year died down, the format is still growing.
The Tiny Leaders subreddit and Facebook group today has double the number of subscribers compared to when I first wrote about them. Tiny Leaders even have their own official forum which launched early this month, but it has yet to achieve the activity level found in the subreddit and Facebook group.
More importantly, Tiny Leaders is still driving card prices, with the latest Tiny Leaders-related increase being Blasting Station. Tiny Thursdays aims to the contribute to the growing Tiny Leaders content out there, and explore the format from a financial perspective. This column will feature a Tiny Leaders brew each week and discuss financially relevant cards in the deck.
If there are any decks you would like to see featured, feel free to leave a comment below or catch me at Twitter @theguoheng. This week, we shall start with a leader I’ve always wanted to build around: Shu Yun, the Silent Tempest.
Shu Yun Goes to Value Town
Decklist generated using TappedOut.net
Shu Yun is most often compared to Geist of Saint Traft, one of the undisputed top tier decks in the format, with some arguing that it would be better to just cut the red and go Geist if you are gunning for a highly competitive build. After all, Geist decks are more streamlined and the majority of their card pool overlaps with those used in Shu Yun.
There are two reasons why I gravitated to Shu Yun rather than Geist. First off, having Red gives you more options for efficient removals like Lightning Bolt, Flame Slash, Fire/Ice and Lighting Helix rather than having to lean on enchantment-based removals like Oblivion Ring and Banishing Light to bolster the number of answers in the list.
Board presence king in Tiny Leaders and Red gives you a removal suite that does compromise your tempo, on top of access to much needed sweepers in the sideboard like Anger of the Gods and Pyroclasm to shore up the matchup against swarm decks like Ezuri Elfball, and the increasingly popular Grenzo Goblins.
The other impetus to run tricolor Shu Yun over bicolor Geist of Saint Traft is Dack Fayden. Dack Fayden is probably the best planeswalker you can run in Tiny Leaders due to the ubiquity of Swords in the format. An unanswered Sword steals games and nothing turns the tide like stealing an opponent’s Sword and bashing him or her with it. From the playtesting I did with Shu Yun, I don’t think I have lost a game in which I stole opposing Swords.
Dack’s +1 was surprisingly useful even though it does not generates card advantage. Dack’s Faithless Looting filters away those late game Mana Leak and unwanted lands. Dack’s only downside is that he is already $27, and I could not list him as one of the pick-up targets in the next segment.
This Shu Yun list was designed based on the same philosophy Modern Jeskai ascribes to, that is to out-tempo and out-value your opponent. The deck switches gears at ease, depending on the matchup and draw and utilizes a suite of cheap, efficient removals to allow you to mount your offensive and control the board at the same time.
Young Pyromancer and Monastery Mentor fortify your board position while you cast answers to control the board, pulling you ahead both in the tempo and card advantage race. Stoneforge Mystic digs you the Sword for the occasion. Mantis Rider is a good tempo creature that plays the role of attacker and defender.
The removal suite consists of the usual Jeskai fare, a.k.a. the best one mana removals in the format. I’ve added a Condemn as an extra one mana answer because I realised that one mana removals were something I always love drawing while I was playtesting the deck. They always trade up and as a tempo deck, it’s exactly what I want. The more expensive removals, Fire/Ice and Electrolyze usually net card advantage. Detention Sphere and Council’s Judgment are necessary evils to answer opposing Swords.
Feel free to trade one-for-one in the early game. We have the ability to refuel with Ancestral Vision and to some extent, Dack Fayden. This build guns for the midrange game, which is why I’ve included Ancestral Visions in the list.
Now that let’s take a look at the cards in the deck that are financially relevant.
The Boss Himself
The graph above depicts Shu Yun’s foil price. I’ve always preferred to invest in foils for cards that are used as commanders or leaders. They tend to generate a larger return and more importantly, buffer better against reprints.
Shu Yun foils at $7.64 denotes a 13.6x multiplier on non-foil copies, which are going for a paltry $0.46, signifying his popularity both as a commander and leader. Shu Yun has been getting a lot of attention as a commander since he was spoiled, and rightfully so. Shu Yun is one of the most fun to build around commanders to come out from recent sets. There are multiple ways to build Shu Yun: you can either go voltron, or thread down the combo route. And Shu Yun is allegedly quite sick in 1v1.
Shu Yun is the only Jeskai leader in Tiny Leaders, which explains his tremendous popularity in the format. Jeskai has always been a competitive color combination in eternal formats and prior to the printing of Shu Yun, Tiny Leaders players have to resort to a generic 2/2 ‘legendary creature with a UWR casting cost’ to play Jeskai.
Does Shu Yun’s popularity in Commander and Tiny Leaders make foil copies a good pick-up? Certainly. Just not right now. For two reasons. First off there is something peculiar going on with Shu Yun’s price. Shu Yun’s foil buylist price dropped 24% from $3.12 to $2.51 two weeks back. However, two days ago Shu Yun saw his foil price hike as one major vendor increased their price for foil Shu Yun.
Whatever happens, it would be safer to wait until Fate Reforged hits peak supply at the end of May when DTK-DTK-FRF drafts are displaced by Modern Masters 2015.
The Loothouse
Desolate Lighthouse, which also sees play in Modern Scapeshift and Modern Splinter Twin, besides being a good utility land in Commander and Tiny Leaders, is just a $0.54 card. And Desolate Lighthouse would not be reprinted in Modern Masters 2015.
I think non-foil Desolate Lighthouse is a great pick-up at its current price. Foils are at $6.08, which is a whooping 11.2x multiplier from the non-foils. Either the foil is overpriced, or the non-foil is underpriced, and with the Modern and Commander play it is seeing, I am compelled to think that it is the non-foil that is underpriced.
The Catchall
Detention Sphere is another card in the Shu Yun list above which I think is underpriced. Detention Sphere is also a mainstay in Geist of Saint Traft Tiny Leaders and is a strict upgrade to Oblivion Ring as it catches those pesky tokens on top of everything else. Token strategies are not insignificant in the format. There are spirit tokens from Teysa and Lingering Souls, Grenzo’s goblin tokens, Thopter Foundry tokens, Bitterblossom tokens and the list goes on.
Detention Sphere is a decent buy in at under $1, but I would not go in too deep. It is a popular enchantment in Commander and could well be reprinted in the next Commander set.
That is all for this week’s Tiny Leaders segment. If there are any decks you would like to see featured, let me know in the comments below or beam me at Twitter @theguoheng.
With a bunch of the Dragons of Tarkir cards finally taking up their positions as dominant standard cards, we have now officially entered the age of the Elder Dragons. Let’s have a look at what’s up with Magic cards that are moving and shaking this week:
Fifth Dawn is certainly an aged set at this point, but the sudden motion on this card is almost certainly related to some Tiny Leaders speculation that is better off ignored. If you have these lying around, feel free to sell or trade into the hype.
In a format where the metagame is constantly shifting between control, aggro and mid-tier archtypes at the top tables, a relatively cheap threat that can answer Siege Rhino and make removal more costly is proving to be a reasonable 1-2 of in a few different decks. The Esper Dragons build has the most momentum, but Jeskai Dragons, UB Dragons and even some weird Temur builds have been pushing this guy into the red zone lately. This is close to his natural limit as a rare seeing moderate play, so it’s time to unload if you are holding these.
This Elder Dragon sees less play than Dragonlord Atarka, but has the tailwinds from being played in what many feel is the best deck in the format, aka Esper Dragons. At $13-15 I unloaded the copies I got in at around $5 during pre-order season this week, but if the deck stays popular, or the card enjoys a favorable metagame shift in the fall, it’s possible this card pushes past $20 at some point while legal. With the metagame being as unpredictable as it has been, my call was to exit, but you’ll need to decide for yourself what comes next.
Having gotten in on this king of the beat down at $6, I was likewise happy to exit around $18 this week, net of fees. That’s a truly great return, and you should be happy to exit in similar fashion even if this card could push $25-30 on steady play into the fall, since you should be able to find better returns on fresh specs around the time of Modern Masters 2 release events. There is no denying the power of the card and foils are especially tasty as long term holds if you can snag some at good prices during the upcoming summer standard doldrums.
Format(s): Standard/Casual/EDH
Verdict: Sell/Trade
5. Wilt-Leaf Liege (Dragons of Tarkir, Mythic Rare): $23.26 to $27.84 (20%)
I’ve been seeing this card pop up more often in Modern lists lately, especially with Liliana back on the prowl. It’s in some danger of a reprint in Modern Masters 2015, in which case it falls back to $4-5 in a hurry, so I’d be taking profits here if I was holding any.
Originally hyped as a great finisher for RG and Temur brews, this guy has largely fallen off the radar in Standard and his price tag is suffering accordingly. If it falls into the $3-4 range, I may start considering an entry point, but so far I remain unconvinced on his potential for big gains regardless of what happens in the metagame.
Tasigur is close to his natural supply peak, and as a card basically never played as a 4-of, he may have some more room to drop heading into the Modern Masters focused events of early summer. He doesn’t see play in most Esper Dragons builds, nor in RG Dragons or RG Aggro, so his Standard future largely hinges on the prospects for Abzan Control, a deck that is still well positioned against the field. I’ll be all over the card in the $4-5 range, because even if he doesn’t find a $10 price point this fall, he will eventually on Modern and Legacy play as a long term hold. Short term specs are a lot more interesting when you have a solid backup plan. The foils are also under-priced at $25, and I’ll be acquiring additional copies shortly.
Temur focused Standard lists abound, but most of them aren’t winning tournaments. As a result, this objectively powerful planeswalker is testing new lows, and could get as far down as $10-12 if he doesn’t put up big results before summer. I like getting out of this card for now, looking to get back in later on when we hit rock bottom.
Verdict: Trade/Sell
James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.
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What happens when you print a powerful pre-Mending planeswalker in all his or her godlike glory? What happens if you make that said planeswalker a colorless battlecruiser who is able to carry games all by him or herself? What happens when you bolt on the most popular creature type onto that said planeswalker?
Where is your Ugin now?
Ugin, the Spirit Dragon defied conventional Magic finance theorem on the price trajectory of planeswalkers. Planeswalkers often command a premium on their preorder price, better know as the planeswalker tax, ever since Jace, the Mind Sculptor shot up to more than 500% of his preorder price.
Most planeswalkers would have tanked in price when their hype died down upon a set’s release (Narset Transcendent wasn’t really that good after all) or experience a short-lived spike when it saw play in the StarCityGames Open or Pro Tour following the set’s release before dropping in price once supply of the card increased. The accepted norm is that planeswalkers would be nowhere near their preorder price by the time the next set hits the shelves.
Vertical bars denote Pro Tour weekends.
Ugin, the Spirit Dragon was preordering for $30 to $35. He retained a price of $35 for the first month of his release, on the back of the success of Sultai Control, Green Devotion and Abzan Control, all of which ran Ugin in their 75. Ugin’s price hiked to nearly $40 for the month of March, before returning back to the low $30s early April and spiked back to the high $30s again briefly over the Pro Tour weekend when control decks sported a spectacular performance at the Pro Tour.
As of writing, the next set, Dragons of Tarkir is already a month old and Fate Reforged has been drafted for three months. Ugin, the Spirit Dragon stubbornly remains at $33, the same price as his preorder price. Had you been one of the prescient (or lucky) few who preordered Ugin, you would have acquired Ugin at no planeswalker tax.
Ugin’s Future
Sarkhan may have traveled 1280 years back in time and secured Ugin’s fate, but what lies in store for Ugin’s financial fate?
Ugin, the Spirit Dragon is a one-of-a-kind in design and by extension, financially. My fellow MTGPrice writers, Sigmund Ausfresser and Travis Allen wrote briefly about Ugin in their Pro Tour Dragons of Tarkir review last week and both offered different stances on Ugin’s current and future price. Jared Yost offered an insightful analysis of Ugin based on Ugin’s spread last week. I would highly recommend checking out their articles to get their opinion on Ugin on top of reading this one.
This article aims to explain Ugin’s current trend-defying price and formulate a rough prediction on Ugin’s potential price in the future. This article casts a Deep Analysis on Ugin’s financial fate.
Analyzing Ugin’s fate, Bolas style.
Let’s start by having a look at the factors that kept Ugin, the Spirit Dragon at his preorder price three months after Fate Reforged’s release.
Ugin, the Ubiquitous
Below is a table of the mythics that saw play at Pro Tour Dragons of Tarkir in the decks that finished 18 points or higher in the constructed portion of the Pro Tour.
24 - 27 Points
21 - 23 Points
18 - 20 Points
Total
Elspeth, Sun's Champion
12
28
36
76
Whisperwood Elemental
11
20
33
64
Nissa, Worldwaker
9
22
32
63
Xenagos, the Reveler
13
29
21
63
Ugin, the Spirit Dragon
6
20
23
49
Deathmist Raptor
6
8
35
49
Polukranos, the World Eater
9
14
25
48
Dragonlord Ojutai
14
13
18
45
Dragonlord Atarka
7
17
13
37
Sorin, Solemn Visitor
5
10
12
27
Dragonlord Silumgar
8
8
5
21
Chandra Pyromaster
4
8
6
18
Soulfire Grand Master
0
4
9
13
Warden of the First Tree
4
2
5
11
Narset Transcendent
0
4
4
8
Shaman of the Forgotten Ways
0
3
1
4
The fact that the Ugin was the fifth most played mythic among the top decks even though he was mostly played as a one-of in the mainboard with the occasional second copy in the sideboard is a testament to Ugin’s pervasiveness in Dragons of Tarkir Standard. As with Fate Reforged Standard, Ugin saw play in multiple archetypes as a top-of-the-curve finisher. Or a Get Out of Jail Free card as Paulo Vitor Damo da Rosa called him in his Team CFB Esper Dragons deck guide.
Out of the total of 116 decks that finished 18 points or better in the Pro Tour’s constructed portion, 42 sported Ugin. Ugin, the Spirit Dragon was played in 36% of the top decks at the Pro Tour. The demand for Ugin is low per player, but there are a lot of players looking for their one or two copies of Ugin. Players running Abzan Control, Blue-Black or Esper Dragon Control or the various flavors of Devotion would need access to at least one Ugin, the Spirit Dragon.
Is that low-per-person but widespread pattern of demand sufficient to keep the price of Ugin at his preorder price even when the supply of Fate Reforged has never been higher after three months of drafting and nearly two months of redemption? Furthermore a full set of Fate Reforged is appallingly cheap on Magic Online. As of writing, Goatbots is selling a full Fate Reforged set for just $44.99.
Let’s take a look at the other Fate Reforged mythics on the high end of the set’s price spectrum to see if they follow Ugin’s price traction or if Ugin is the exception to the norm.
Captured on 21 April 2015.
Monastery Mentor remains the second most expensive card in Fate Reforged even though he saw minimal Standard play. He is making waves (or rather, 1/1 prowess tokens) in Modern, which explains his stubborn price trajectory. Nevertheless, Monastery Mentor’s price is half that of his preorder price as of writing.
A little side note about Monastery Mentor. The trend reversal at the last part of the graph could be attributed to the Mentor adding Legacy and Vintage (thanks for the tweet, Sigmund) to his repertoire over the last couple of days. He was found as a playset in the Stoneblade list that finished second at Asia’s largest Legacy Grand Prix and was present in multiple copies in five of the top 8 decks at a recent 71-person Vintage tournament in Europe , including three copies in the deck that took down the event.
Soulfire Grand Master‘s popularity waxed and waned in tandem with Red-White builds in Standard. At $14, her current price is half that of her $25 preorder.
After peaking for a month, Whisperwood Elemental’s price began a descent even though the elemental started seeing play beyond Green-White Devotion and was the second most played mythic at Pro Tour Dragons of Tarkir.
You get the gist. Every other Fate Reforged mythic have tanked from their preorder price, or peak price in the case of Whisperwood Elemental, except for Ugin, the Stubborn Dragon.
Could Ugin’s price trajectory be attributed to the individually low but widespread demand from Standard players? Perhaps. After all, every self-respecting control deck would run at least one Ugin in their 75 and control seems to be king these days.
However, I suspect there is another demand that kept Ugin’s price unusually high. I think we may be witnessing the power of casual demand in action.
Ugin, the Icon
Ugin may be colorless and is the father of all colorless magic, but he is Vorthos gold. Ugin is one of the most iconic character in Magic’s lore. Since time immemorial, the ancient planeswalker Ugin has been alluded to on many occasions by flavor texts, card name and stories, and he plays an integral role in the modern Magic plotline. But yet, we have never seen him in card form until Ugin, the Spirit Dragon was unveiled in Fate Reforged.
Ugin, the Spirit Dragon is the culmination of everything the casual and collector crowd love. First and foremost, he is a planeswalker. What is better than a planeswalker? A dragon planeswalker. In particularly a high casting cost dragon planeswalker who rewards its player with an insanely powerful effect for resolving him.
The Spike crowd’s initial reaction to Ugin may be lukewarm due to his prohibitive casting cost, but I can imagine the Timmies, Johnnies, the kitchen table players who comprise of the majority of Magic’s player base, jumping with joy when they saw Ugin unveiled on Christmas Eve.
Ugin, the Spirit Dragon is your very own Death Star. Ugin grants you the ability to do an Alderaan on the board:
Best of all, Ugin, the Spirit Death Star is colorless, which means every single Commander deck could run Ugin. All is Dust is cool, but not planeswalking dragon cool. All is Dust is just a board wipe, that’s all. Its not a win condition. Ugin is.
As expected, Ugin was an instant hit with the Commander crowd. And he is the Fate Reforged card that has been included the most in Commander decks, as scoeri’s monthly database illustrates below:
The numbers indicate the number of decks that included Ugin, the Spirit Dragon in the monthly count.
It is difficult to get accurate quantitative data on the popularity of cards in the Commander crowd as the majority are not as vocal as players who post on MTGSalvation and Redditors on r/EDH. Furthermore, the Commander metagame differs from area to area. Nevertheless, until we figure out a method to quantify the popularity of Commander cards, if at all possible, those are the next best litmus paper we have to assess a card’s popularity in Commander quantitatively.
If we adopt a qualitative approach to evaluate Ugin’s popularity among the casual crowd, we can compare Ugin to other high casting cost, splashy, colorless casual all-stars like Karn Liberated and the three Elzdrazis.
As of writing, the three Eldrazi titans are the most expensive cards in Rise of the Eldrazi.
Extremely popular among Commander players and the casual crowd, the Eldrazis also see play in Modern Tron and Reanimator variants and Legacy Omni-Tell and Twelve Post. The combination of kitchen table demand and eternal play contributed to the rise of the Eldrazis’ price since they rotated out of Standard. The gradual increase over the years depicted in the Eldrazis’ price history supported that.
The Eldrazis exude a huge Vorthos appeal. They are the big antagonists (in every sense) in contemporary Magic storyline and the events that occurred and will be occurring in future installments of the Magic plot were instigated by the Eldrazis’ awakening.
Karn Liberated was the first colorless planeswalker to be printed and is another iconic Magic character (or was, until we return to the Mirrodin New Phyrexia arc).
Karn Liberace.
While Karn hovered at $15 during his Standard life before spiking twice on the back of Modern and Commander demand, I do not expect Ugin to mirror Karn’s price history.
First off, Commander was not as popular as it is today during New Phyrexia Standard. Secondly, Modern was a fledgling format during 2011, and Tron was not a viable deck back then (what good is a turn three Karn when you were dead on turn two). Lastly, Karn Liberated barely saw any play in Standard besides Ali Aintrazi’s Blue-Black Control which he used to take down the final US Nationals. All those factors allowed Karn to drop to a paltry $15 during his early years. Unfortunately, Ugin was printed in a very different age of Magic finance and I highly doubt we would see Ugin stoop to $15.
However, Karn Liberated gives us another clue on what the future holds for the Spirit Dragon. Karn is one of the most popular planeswalkers in Commander. He serves as an answer to difficult permanents that could fit into all color identity, very much in the vein of Ugin.
Karn’s current price is sustained in part by Commander demand and Ugin’s future price could be as well. Actually, I think that outcome is given, seeing that Ugin’s current price is probably already being driven by Commander demand. Commander demand could explain the flat trajectory of Ugin’s foil price over the past few months,while most other Fate Reforged foils were gradually trending down (except Tasigur, the Golden Fang who is baring his fangs in multiple formats).
Based on the price history of Karn Liberated and the Eldrazis, we can assume there is a good chance that non-foil Ugin, the Spirit Dragon would be worth at least $30, the same level as his current price, in the long-term, buoyed by casual demand. I am not sure if Ugin would be able to sustain a price much higher than $30 on top of casual and Commander demand alone. The price of Karn and the Eldrazis were propped up by Modern and Legacy demand on top of those from the kitchen table demographic.
Does Ugin, the Spirit Dragon has what it takes to break into the eternal formats and demand a price tag beyond $30 years down the road?
Ugin, the Eternal
Although Ugin, the Spirit Dragon cannot be summoned on turn three with the assembled Tron lands in Modern, Ugin nevertheless snuck into Tron’s mainboard. Karn Liberated is one of the best threats in Modern due to the dearth of answers to planeswalkers, and Ugin is the same.
Here’s Ugin in Green-Red Tron, the combo version of Tron:
And here’s Ugin in Blue-White Gifts Tron, the control version of Tron, which has been putting up the occasional result on Magic Online:
Granted, Tron is nowhere near tier one at the moment. If the Modern metagame shifts to favor Tron, it would exert a little bit of additional upward pressure on the price of Ugin. But a bit is not enough.
How about Legacy? Can Ugin find a home in the ruthlessly efficient format that is Legacy?
Where better to slot in Ugin than decks that generate a licentious amount of mana? Justin Moss made the top 8 of a 230-player StarCityGames Invitational Qualifier piloting a MUD deck with two Ugin, the Spirit Dragon in his mainboard. Running Ugin in Metalworker was no fluke. Hayaki Hirokazu made the top 8 of an 80-player Legacy event in Japan the week before with a Metalworker deck that sported a singleton Ugin.
It seems that Metalworker was not Ugin’s only home in Legacy.
Ugin, the Spirit Dragon do have a place in Modern and Legacy, albeit in fringe or tier two decks. And he is at most ran as a two-of. Based on those statements, we could postulate that Ugin would probably not hit the heights of $60 to $70 enjoyed by Karn Liberated who is often a four-of in Tron, but rather he would follow the price pattern of the Eldrazis, with a long-term price tag of $50, driven by eternal demand in a small numbers on top of casual interest.
An argument could be made that the supply of Ugin outstrips that of the Eldrazi titans, on the merit of being printed six years later in an era where sets have a significantly larger print run. Without access to Wizards’ print run and sales data, we could only make deductions based on public information and I think there are a few factors to consider when comparing the supply of Eldrazis to Ugin.
Emrakul, the Aeons Torn was a prerelease promo, which bumped up its supply significantly. Ulamog, the Infinite Gyre was reprinted in the limited edition From the Vaults: Legends. Emrakul is $50 even though the flying spaghetti monster is banned in Commander. The Modern and Legacy demand for Emrakul is sufficiently high to warrant Emrakul becoming one of the marquee reprints in the the upcoming Modern Masters 2015. Ulamog is $38, the cheapest of the Eldrazi titans. Kozilek, the only Eldrazi with a single printing, is the most expensive at $53.
Based on Ugin’s presence in Modern and Legacy on top of his appeal in casual formats, it is reasonable to predict Ugin to hold a $50 price tag in the long run. I doubt Ugin would stay as low as Ulamog as Ugin offers more flexibility and utility compared with Ulamog.
Ugin’s Financial Fate
Hopefully by now, I have made my case sufficiently clear to establish that:
Ugin’s current $33 price tag is justified.
Ugin has the potential to grow to $50 in the long-term.
Now what do we do with Ugin, the Spirit Dragon?
Ugin may be a $50 card in the long run but he is already sitting at a lofty $33 today. The Eldrazis took years to cultivate their current price tag and it would be utter buffoonery to sink in money on Ugin hoping to make $17 in three years.
First of all, if you are waiting for Ugin to drop in price before grabbing your one or two copies for your Standard Esper Dragons, Modern Gifts Tron, Legacy Metalworker or just for your myriad of Commander decks, I would recommend grabbing your Ugin now. I doubt Ugin would fall much further, and indeed fellow MTGPrice writer Jared Yost offered another perspective on why Ugin may actually be undervalued even at $33, based on Ugin’s spread.
But beware of grabbing too many copies. There is one wildcard that could ruin the price of Ugin in the short run.
The 2016 spring Duel Deck.
There is a possibility that Ugin will appear alongside another planeswalker in a Duel Deck a la Elspeth vs. Kiora, Jace vs. Vraska and Ajani vs. Nicol Bolas. If there is an event that could tank the price of the financial fortress that is Ugin, the Spirit Dragon, a Duel Deck appearance would do it.
The announcement of next year’s spring Duel Deck happens late October or early November. Looking at the price history of Jace, Architect of Thought and Elspeth, Sun’s Champion, they both experienced a second spike in the October following their set’s release, only to have their price drop a month later when the following year’s spring Duel Deck was announced. And their price never recovered.
Could the fate that befell Jace and Elspeth happen to Ugin? After a Twitter discussion I’ve had with fellow writers and financiers, I am convinced that there is a good chance we would see an Ugin Versus X Duel Deck in spring 2016.
Furthermore, the fact that Wizards already has an alternate art commissioned for Ugin increases the odds of as Duel Deck reprint. It makes business sense for Wizards to utilize the art they have already commissioned (plus we have not seen the foil version of the alternate art Ugin, which I’d imagine would be drop dead gorgeous). On the other hand, recycling Chris Rahn’s art for a Duel Deck Ugin would royally screw collectors and players who have fogged up anywhere between $100 to $200 for the Ugin’s Fate Ugin. I imagine we would see the foil alternate art Ugin as a judge foil rather than a lowly Duel Deck foil.
Regardless of whether Wizards comes up with an Ugin Duel Deck, I would still recommend grabbing your own copies of Ugin right now if you intend to use him. The announcement of next spring’s Duel Deck would happen in late October or early November, giving you a whole six months to play with your Ugin before the possibility of his price dropping. You may even get to flip your Ugin for a slight profit in September and October, if Ugin follows the trend of Jace, Elspeth and Kiora and sees a September to October spike.
While the price of Ugin would drop due to the Duel Deck, I am confident that Ugin would be a $50 card within a few years. Even if Ugin drops to $20 (the lowest I could imagine for a planeswalker of Ugin’s stature) you would have paid and extra $13 per Ugin for a full six months of play, and in a few years time you would probably not regret getting in on Ugin at $30s.
If you are looking to speculate on the next Eldrazi, it may be prudent to wait until this fall to see if there is an Ugin Duel Deck next year. I would buy my speculation copies of Ugin instantly if we do not hear an Ugin Duel Deck by this December, of if the Duel Deck turned out to be Sarkhan vs. Sorin, Sarkhan vs. Narset (aww) or Sarkan vs. Sarkhan. If there is an Ugin Duel Deck after all, I would buy into my speculation copies of Ugin upon the release of the Duel Deck.
Sigmund Ausfresser illustrated in his article yesterday how the price of Modern, Legacy and/or Commander playable foils have a strong staying power in the light of reprints. I would highly recommend reading his article if you are looking a compelling reason to invest in the right kind of foils.
I am of opinion that Ugin falls in the right category of foils to invest in. Ugin, the Spirit Dragon is Commander gold and sees play in Modern and Legacy. I could not phrase it better than Travis did in his discussion of Ugin last week:
When was the last time we saw an iconic mythic character that pinged every single player demographic in every single format?
And I wholly agree with Travis’ statement. I can’t recall the last time we had a planeswalker that fits those criteria above.
I think we still have slightly more than a month to go before we hit peak supply of Fate Reforged. I admit I do not know how much foil Ugin would drop, with Ugin assailed by omnidirectional demand. The impact of a Duel Deck reprint on foils of a multi-format mythic planeswalker has yet to be recorded. Duel Deck reprints killed the price of foil Jace, Architect of Thought and Elspeth, Sun’s Champion because they were not eternal-playables. I am tempted to propose that the price of set foil Ugin would suffer from a Duel Deck Ugin reprint, but then again, how many Duel Deck needs to be sold to satiate the foil demand from the Commander and casual crowd, the Modern Tron players and the ramp fanatics of Legacy. Oh and Cube as well. Cube players fancy foils don’t they?
I can’t tell you when is the best window to acquire your foil Ugin because I do not know it myself. I would recommend at least waiting until the end of May, when Fate Reforged hits peak supply before buying or trading into foil Ugin. If you want to play it really safe, you can wait and observe the impact of an Ugin Duel Deck on the set foil, or even if it is in the pipeline. As for myself, I acquired my personal copy above from Magic Online redemption.
Thank you for going through the 3,600 plus words above about Ugin, the Spirit Dragon. Your thoughts and comments would be highly appreciated. Feel free to leave them in the comments below or catch me on Twitter @theguoheng.
Update: I’ve added a couple of sentences highlighting Jared Yost’s analysis of Ugin’s spread from his article last week, which provided important insights to the discussion of Ugin’s current and future price.
MAGIC: THE GATHERING FINANCE ARTICLES AND COMMUNITY
