By James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

One of the most common misconceptions about folks involved in MTGFinance is that we are constantly manipulating the market and feeding players misinformation to help fuel achievement of our personal goals.

It has occurred to us at MTGPrice that though we dole out a good deal of advice, most of you ultimately have very little insight into when our writing team actually puts our money where our collective mouths are pointing. As such we’ve decided to run a weekly series breaking down what we’ve been buying and selling each week and why. These lists are meant to be both complete and transparent, leaving off only cards we bought without hope of profit, where appropriate. We’ll also try to provide some insight into our thinking behind the specs, and whether we are aiming for a short (<1 month), mid (1-12 month), or long (1 year+) term flip. Here’s what we were up to this week:

Buying Period: May 10th – May 23rd, 2015

Note: All cards NM unless otherwise noted. All sell prices are net of fees unless noted.

James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

BOUGHT

• 2x Modern Masters 2015 Booster Box (Japanese): $360 per
• 1x Fate Reforged Booster Box (Russian): $123
• 2x Khans of Tarkir Booster Box (Japanese): $105 per
• 1x Dragons of Tarkir Booster Box (Korean): $95
• 1x LOTV: $72
• 1x Rest in Peace (foil): $9
• 1x Sol Ring (Judge Foil): $115
• 1x Dragonlord Dromoka (foil): $13
• 4x Shorecrasher Elemental (Japanese): $3.25 per
• 1x Shorecrasher Elemental (Korean foil): $15
• 1x Collected Company (Japanese foil): $35
• 1x Humble Defector (foil): $10
• 4x Iroas, God of Victory (Korean): $3.25 per
• 4x Athreos, God of Passage (Korean): $5.25 per
• 4x Keranos, God of Storms (Korean): $5.25 per
• 4x Kruphix, God of Horizons (Korean): $2.75 per
• 4x Pharika, God of Affliction (Korean): $2.25 per
• 2x Pharika, God of Afflication: $3.25 per
• 4x Myth Realized (foil): $4.25 per
• 1x Eidolon of the Great Revel (foil): $21 per

SOLD (Pucatrade):

• 1x Stoneforge Mystic @ $31.98 (pack opened)
• 1x Tarmogoyf @ $188.50 ($135 cost)

The last couple of weeks have been pretty active for me. I’ve moved in a bit on choice foreign KTK block boxes that I think have great long term upside and I even picked up a couple of boxes of Japanese MM2 boxes that I expect to have solid mid-term upside due to their relative rarity and their use of normal tamper-proof, quality controlled, booster wrappers.

I also through some money at some nicely priced Korean Theros block gods since a few of them are likely to show up in Modern sooner or later, and the others have great casual/EDH chops. My other purchases were the usual crop of opportunistic late night Ebay snipes.

Pucatrade helped me out another Tarmogoyf at close to full value. I bought a couple at $135USD at GPToronto, so this was an easy $100 increase in value.

Once my latest trades are confirmed I’ll be holding about $1200 in Pucapoints, and on the hunt for Power 9, dual lands and Judge foils. If you have anything like that you want to send my way let me know.

Note: The rest of the guys were quiet so far this week.

Bonus Tips:

• MM2 is turning out to be a dramatic release indeed. First we had the overreaction to the lack of compelling rares and uncommons and widespread misinformation about the EV of the set (hint: it will turn out fine.) Now, with packs being opened across the planet, we’re seeing plenty of evidence of a highly dubious collation process, packages that can be tampered with easily, damage to cards from the new cardboard packaging and foils being replaced by placeholder cards. As the highest profile release of the year, and with packs at $9.99 MSRP, WOTC really should have put more effort into nailing this down. Shame.
• If the quality control of English boxes proves out to be suspect, the value of Japanese boxes (which use normal booster packaging) should increase, since MM1 was English only and Japanese vendors are technically forbidden from selling their boxes overseas. Picking up a couple of these as close to $300 as possible should serve your MTG portfolio well.
• Pricing on key MM2 cards has already started the predictable downward spiral. I recommend holding off for now, and jumping into the fray coming out of the triple GP weekend as mentioned last week.
• With the Euro at a low point against the USD, CardMarket.eu has some intriguing arbitrage opportunities on older, high value targets. Poke around and you may find some stuff you can buy list for a couple of hundred bucks.

By: Derek Madlem

Last week I might have come across a little hard on the #mtgfinance. Judging by the feedback I received, the zeitgeist was right there with me for most of what I said … and I received A LOT of feedback, more than any article I’ve ever written.

People associate a lot of bad things with #mtgfinance, even the use of the #mtgfinance hashtag has become a punchline to most people. Though to be fair, what hashtag has anyone ever taken seriously? #thanksObama

So now with everyone who tweets about the price of cards being evil we can all just agree that anyone that considers themselves a Magic financier is probably a terrible person right? After all, they’re out there just ripping off orphans, sharking trades from naive single mothers, and stealing Black Lotuses from the elderly using elaborate e-mail scams right?

The Retail Level

In the distant past there was a time when no Standard legal card was ever worth more than $20, it just didn’t happen. When you opened a pack of 4th Edition the best you could hope for was a Shivan Dragon because it was the most valuable card in the set at $20, with Royal Assassin right behind it at $18. Meanwhile, there were no “dollar rares” … even Chaoslace was $3, just go ahead and give that one a read.

Cards were hard to find, there were no internet stores…hell, there wasn’t really even an internet. It was years later when I convinced my mom to order a box of Tempest from an online store … she had to FAX HER CREDIT CARD INFO … things have come a long way since then.

When people began to approach selling cards as a business rather than a hobby, things revolutionized. Most cards got cheaper. As more and more people entered the fray, competition and innovation increased. The Chaoslaces of the world became what they should be – bulk. But some cards crept up in price. I missed the middle years of Magic, I was absent for everything that occurred from Invasion through Time Spiral block, but you know what I saw when I came back to the game?

Cryptic Command – $20
Bitterblossom – $20
Ajani Goldmane – $20

The best rares still didn’t seem to break through that $20 ceiling. But then we were introduced to Mythic Rares and everything was ruined. I mean seriously, it’s a Magic card … who would pay more than $20 for a stupid piece of cardboard?

As it turns out, a lot of people. Around this time there were a lot of people quitting because Magic was “getting too expensive.” At the  same time the game was experiencing a Groundswell of new players.

Did these players come out of the woodwork because they were secretly waiting for a more expensive game to play? Obviously not. I’m going to put this next part in bold letters because it’s really important.

Tying up more of a set’s aggregate value in a few cards made running a game store easier.

Game stores are popping up everywhere and one of the main drivers of their success is selling Magic singles. Higher prices on popular cards creates opportunity for entrepreneurs. Think about this for a second: most stores made more profit selling a playset of Goblin Rabblemasters than they did selling a box of M15 … this is the reality of running a modern game store.

You know what provides you with all those tables at your local game store? I’ll give you a hint, it’s not the dollar rares or booster pack sales; it’s Baneslayer Angel and Bonfire of the Damned and Jace, the Mind Sculptor. It’s players like you buying cards like these that are creating a place for you and your friends a place to meet up and battle with Magic cards.

Supply and Supply

In my last article I drummed up the artificial creation of demand for certain cards. You know what else the Magic finance community does for you? They create supply as well. Whaaaaaaaat?

The “scrappers” of the finance community are out there aggressively digging through 5,000 count boxes pulling out the gems you need and they’re selling them by the fist full to online retailers, vendors at events, and local game stores. These people keep prices down by keeping the supply flowing into the hands of people that need the cards. With cards as mundane as Gitaxian Probe already hovering around $3, you can imagine what the price would be if the supply were cut in half.

It’s not just about picking bulk, these guys are combing the local game stores that lack an online presence and buying up staples and putting them back into circulation so that you can find them. They’re out there flipping through the binders and boxes of the most casual of players to pluck out these diamonds in the rough.

They’re going into places like this to find cards, so you don’t have to. Those binder grinders are providing inventory for local game stores and online retailers alike to sell. You have to keep in mind that when a store runs out of Goblin Rabblemasters they can’t just order more from the distributor, they have to buy them second hand.

News Team Assemble!

“You heard it here first, the #mtgfinance crowd is not all bad … full story at 11”

One of the biggest benefits the #mtgfinance community has brought to the people is a dissemination of information. As more and more people provide regular content about the financial workings of the Magic economy, the average reader becomes more educated. While it sucks for the old-school sharks that made a fortune trading with the blissfully ignorant, the bulk of the Magic population is better served by being well-informed.

A genre that may have begun as articles about value trading has evolved into much much more. We have writers bringing over real-world finance lessons and explaining complicated concepts in simple terms. We have weekly reports on what we’re buying and selling to promote transparency.

We’ve got writers “attacking the format” from a variety of different angles – casual, Standard, Modern, eternal formats, Commander, Tiny Leaders, and the list goes on and on. I know that I sure don’t care to learn the worldwide metagame for EDH, I play against the same four or five people…but if I read what others are saying about popular EDH cards, then I have a more informed perspective.

All of these content creators are providing current and trending news on the cards you want and the cards you own. They’re boiling down complex concepts and interactions into 140 characters. They’re publishing 2,000 word manifestos on the inner workings of Tiny Leaders. They’re putting in the work analyzing and interpreting trends so you can focus your free time on what makes Magic so magical – playing the game.

As the volume of finance content created increases, the public becomes more informed and we have fewer people throwing away hundreds of dollars on sure-to-fail preorders. As the general public becomes more informed buyers we’ll see a decrease in those outrageous preorder prices and we’ll more quickly discover the cards that have real motivators for demand.

Most importantly we’ll hear less of that guy at our local game store making bold predictions on mundane cards because his audience will be informed enough to shut him up.

Technology

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w9ERiI1epI4

I agree, I love technology. You know what drives technology and innovation? Money. Take a look at all of the sweet offerings you have at your fingertips because of this whole #mtgfinance thing. Sites like MTGPrice and QuietSpeculation have cobbled together an assortment of tools to make your lives easier.

Buylist automation and collection tracking are just the tip of the iceberg as far as features we have at our disposal for under a few bucks a month.

We have portable access to pricing through apps and there are numerous “fair trade” apps that will make sure that you don’t leave a single penny on the trade table. All of this technology was created because of the #mtgfinance community. You may not think yourself a financier, but if you’ve ever looked up the price of a card then you’re a part of the community as a whole.

Maybe Not So Bad

Magic finance isn’t all about called shots, buyouts, and spec targets, it’s about understanding the underlying principles. We can read articles to find out the “why” instead of just looking up the “what” of a price.

We have access to a variety of resources that all popped up around this little community. Historic pricing data aggregated from dozens of sources? Yeah, we’ve got access to that. Daily gain / loss reports in our e-mail inbox? Yeah, we’ve got access to that. How many of you remember the old days when you had to log into starcitygames.com the night before you went to FNM to look up the prices of all your cards so that you were on point at the trade tables? Now we’ve got access to up to the minute pricing on our phones from a variety of sources.

We’re living in a world with no $3 Chaoslaces, and I have a hard time saying that’s a bad thing. The next time you hear someone mention MTG finance, remember the good things this community does for all of us regardless of our level of participation.

Until next time, you can find me on twitter @GoingMadlem or you can find me at GP Atlantic City working at the Aether Games booth, stop by and say hello.

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By James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

5 Winners of the Week

Dragons of Tarkir continues to shake up standard, but the hype is real for Modern Masters 2015 and the upcoming release is moving prices as well. Let’s have a look at what’s up with the Magic cards that are moving and shaking this week:

1. Dragonlord Ojutai (DTK, Mythic): $29.74 to $37.29 (+25%)

Dragonlord Ojutai is as close it’s likely peak as I’m willing to risk, and with the ever changing nature of the current Standard meta, I’m all about getting out of this fantastic spec at a healthy 450%+ profit.

Format(s):Standard/Modern/Casual/EDH

Verdict: Sell

2. Spell Snare (Modern Masters, Uncommon): $4.47 to $5.47 (+22%)

I don’t have good info on whether this is in Modern Masters 2015, but my instincts say that it won’t be. Apparently, others agree, as the card has started climbing. If you can find some lying around at earlier pricing, it’s not a terrible idea to jump in on a strong counterspell with legs in Modern and Tiny Leaders. My personal preference would be to make the play on foils here.

Verdict: Trade/Buy

Format(s): Modern/Tiny Leaders

Verdict: Sell

3. Dragonlord Dromoka (DTK, Mythic): $7.66 to $9.06 (18%)

Just when you thought it wasn’t possible for another DTK Dragonlord to make it to center stage, here we are with the big lug gaining momentum as a reasonable threat against Esper Dragons and other counter heavy decks. The ability to shut down opponent’s spell on your own turn can really help swing a game in your favor, as can the cards’ Baneslayer Angel mode in combat. The metagame coming out of the weekend didn’t feature many copies, so I’d be comfortable selling/trading into the minor hype bump and then looking to buy in around $5 or $10-12 foils later this summer. All of the Dragonlords have future casual appeal, and a few are good enough for EDH, so there are plenty of reasons to pick a good entry point on these soaring hype lizards.

Format(s): Standard/Casual/EDH

Verdict: Sell/Trade

4. Fleecemane Lion (DTK, Mythic): $2.73 to $3.10 (14%)

Fleecemane is the most popular aggressive creature in multiple green based aggro and mid-range decks and likely deserves this late game bump heading towards rotation and obscurity. The time will never be better to unload these, as rapid metagame shifts could lead it in the dust.

Format(s): Standard/Tiny Leaders

Verdict: Sell/Trade

5. Blood Moon (Modern Masters, Rare): $17.80 to $20.19 (+13%)

Just as speculation is running rampant on a Modern Masters 2015 reprint, Blood Moon finds itself waxing in importance for Modern. This is an interesting tension, as a reprint should send the card down towards $15, while a no-show in the set could see it climb above $30 in all versions.

Format(s): Modern

Verdict: Sell

 

3 Top Losers of the Week

1. Glittering Wish: $9.40 to $7.05 (-25%)

Folks (including myself) were nattering about this card earlier this year, pegging it to do new and exciting things in Modern, but that play pattern hasn’t appeared, so the card is falling back once again. I’ve always liked this card around $5, and I will be acquiring if it falls back a bit further. The power level of tutors simply cannot be denied, and I believe that a deck will eventually emerge that puts this to work.

Format(s): Modern/Tiny Leaders

Verdict: Buy at $5

2. Narset, Transcendent: $30.19 to $25.23 (16%)

I’ve been avoiding this chiquita like the plague as she seemed destined for a fall from the very beginning when she was pre-ordering for $50. Anyone who dove in on this underplayed (yet powerful) planeswalker up front has lost half their investment already, and I fully expect Narset to fade towards $15 before long on lack of play. That being said, a few great proactive spells are possibly all she needs to get back in the saddle, even if it doesn’t come together for several months. Dragons of Tarkir doesn’t rotate until fall 2016, so her moment may still be coming.

Verdict: Sell/Trade

3. Shorecrasher Elemental: $4.02 to $4.76 (+16%)

With so many cards in Dragons of Tarkir hitting peak value on reasonably high levels of play, any remaining rares and mythics that aren’t pulling their weight at the top tables have to fall back to balance the EV of the set. Like Narset, this fantastic Blue Devotion enabler hasn’t live up to the hype. The catch however, is that a thirty-two creature blue devotion deck just made Top 4 of the SCG open, running green generating lands to cast some epic end of turn Collected Companies and turn on Thassa when opponent’s least expect it. There isn’t a lot of time left for this strategy to come forward in the metagame, but a great 2-drop in Magic: Origins in July could be all we need to push it over the top heading into the fall rotation. As such, I like this card anywhere under $4, looking to exit around $7-8 if it finds it’s way.

Verdict: Buy/Trade

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

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