By James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

5 Winners of the Week

1. Guttural Response (Fate Reforged, Mythic): $1.51 to $7.11 (371%)

I hear rumors that this card is spiking based on some fringe combo deck driving a buy out, but I’ve been unable to track down the relevant info. Clue us in via the comments section and we’ll update.

Format(s): ?

Verdict: ?

 

 

 

2. Pendelhaven (Legends, Uncommon): $10.00 to $15.00 (50%)

This is a common card in Infect strategies, and there really aren’t that many copies floating around despite the FNM, Anthologies and Time Shifted printings on top of the original. There are two Legends cards on our list this week, which just goes to show what you can expect as more and more MTG players get involved in MTGFinance and start contributing to buy outs on cards with low inventory. Whether you can move the cards into real demand is the pressing question in these cases, so if you want to hold tight on this one you need to feel sure Infect will be alive and kicking for a while in Legacy and Modern. So far all signs say you should be fine holding on to these for a while as a reprint is unlikely anytime soon.

Format(s): Modern, Legacy, Casual

Verdict: Sell/Hold

3. Tetsuo, Umezawa (Legends, Rare): $21.52 to $29.99 (39%)

This is a Tiny Leaders spec since Tetsuo is the only URB general available to that fledgling format. He’s also on the Reserved List and highly unlikely to be reprinted due to flavor/brand issues, so holding this guy for a bit isn’t a bad idea, at least until Wizards releases their inevitable Tiny Leaders product in 2017.

Format(s): Tiny Leaders

Verdict: Hold

4. Master of Waves and Thassa, God of the Sea (Theros, Mythic Rare):  MoW – $3.00 to $5.50 (83%) , Thassa – $4.81 to $6.53 (36%) 

These two centerpieces of the mono-blue devotion stratagem are on the rise because, well, Shorecrasher Elemental.

A UUU 3-drop may be just the thing to bring this oppressive archtype back into play as a Tier 1 or 2 option in Standard, and it’s not completely outside the realm of possibility that this card makes the archetype playable in Modern either, now that it has solid 1, 2 and 3 drops to lead into Thassa and/or Master of Waves and make a ton of tokens.  We’ll see how things play out, but I added to my positions in both cards on the basis that a failure to reemerge in Standard doesn’t necessarily count them out in older formats.

Format(s): Standard/Modern

Verdict: Hold

5. See the Unwritten (Khans of Tarkir, Mythic): $1.78 to $2.29 (29%)

I’ve had 40-50 of this card in my portfolio almost since release, on the basis that either Dragons or Eldrazi would eventually make it good. We’re not there yet, but with Battle for Zendikar confirmed for the fall set, we’re not miles out from this card becoming a real thing. The thing is, if it fails to find a home before rotation, it falls back to bulk and you get to hope your copies slow burn their way into success down the road on EDH/Casual demand alone.

Format(s): Standard/Casual/EDH

Verdict: Hold

 

 3 Top Losers of the Week

1. Hammer of Purphoros: $1.55 to $1.00 (-35%)

Making 3/3 tokens slowly just isn’t where you want to be in Standard right now and the rotation axe is grinding.

2. Elspeth, Sun’s Champion: $15.59 to $13.05 (-16%)

The old girl’s had a good run in Standard, and she’s still a viable threat at the top end of several real decks, but her printing in the most recent Duel Deck this month is not going to help her. You should already have outed your copies toward the beginning of the year, and I wouldn’t be caught holding any of this once $35 card for much longer.

3. Sidisi, Brood Tyrant: $5.58 to $5.02 (-10%)

Sidisi decks are looking less and less viable as the Standard metagame keeps shifting fast and furious this spring. I’m actually more excited about the undead version of this character once DoT is out, so I think now is a good time to be outing your copies, possibly looking to pick them back up in the mid-summer doldrums when the standard staples take a beating.

Quick Hits

My underrated cards from Dragons of Tarkir currently include (full article coming soon):

• Dragon Tempest
• Descent of the Dragons
• Sidizi, Undead Viziier
• Assault Formation
• Avatar of the Resolute
• Kolaghan’s Command
• Deathmist Raptor

• A run on foil Command Towers is ongoing. Grab ’em quick if you need one for your Commander decks or just want to go for a ride to $10+ in profit.

• Master of the Unseen absolutely dominated GP Miami last weekend, resulting in games so painful to watch it made my eyes bleed. The power of the card is no longer a secret however, and it will be topping this list next weekend along with Outpost Siege, another card that has legs on recently revealed power level.

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

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By James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

One of the most common misconceptions about folks involved in MTGFinance is that we are constantly manipulating the market and feeding players misinformation to help fuel achievement of our personal goals.

It recently occurred to us here that though we dole out a good deal of advice, most of you ultimately have very little insight into when we actually put our money where our collective mouths are pointing. As such we’ve decided to run a weekly series simply breaking down what we’ve been buying this week and why. These lists are meant to be both complete and transparent, leaving off only cards we bought without hope of profit, where appropriate. We’ll also try to provide some insight into our thinking behind the specs, and whether we are aiming for a short (<1 month), mid (1-12 month), or long (1 year+) term flip. Here’s what we were up to this week:

Buying Period: March 1st -7th, 2015

Note: All cards NM unless otherwise noted.

James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

BOUGHT

• 8x Thassa, God of the Sea @ $4.50 per
• 4x Master of Waves @ $2.60 per
• 8x Otujai Exemplars @ $8.00 per
• 3x Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver (Foil) @ $30 per
• 3x Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver (Foil, Japanese) @ $60 per
• 3x Decimate (Conspiracy Foil) @ $4.00 per
• 1x Lilianna of the Veil @ $58
• 3x Abrupt Decay @ $10.40 per
• 2x Chord of Calling @ $2.25 per
• 17x Sliver Hive @ $3.50 per
• 5x Tasigur, the Golden Fang (Foil) @ $24 per

SOLD

• 2x Counterbalance @ $15 per ($5 cost)
• 2x Ghostway @ $8 per ($2 cost)
• 1x Mindbreak Trap @ $6 ($2 cost)
• 2x Lotus Petal @ $4 (pack opened ages ago)
• 1x Dark Citadel (Japanese foil) @ $14 ($8 cost)

Wow, what a week! Between the Dragons of Tarkir reveals and the Magic Origins and Battle for Zendikar reveals, there are a lot of fresh specs in play.

With the new UUU Shorecrasher Elemental revealed in Dragons of Tarkir, Thassa and Master of Waves both have a chance at seeing fresh play in standard, but I was already acquiring both cards on the assumption that they will find fresh homes in Modern/Legacy eventually or simply age well as casual specs. Either way, they are undervalued mythics and I’m going deep. As of this morning, they’ve both spiked 40-70% off the reveal of Shorecrasher Elemental, so we’ll see if a deck emerges with legs. Some of my copies were bought around $2-3, so I’ll be looking to out them immediately.

Otujai Exemplars was a value play, since I snagged it well below the average pre-order price. I think this card settles in the $6-8 range, assuming some standard play at top tables, but could rise later if it fits into a winning deck and supply has dwindled. I’ll likely trade out early and buy back in when enough packs are cracked to see a new low.

Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver featured prominently in the winning deck at the first SCG Modern Series last weekend in the hands of Sultai master Gerrard Fabiano. He’s not a staple in the format yet, but any chance of this mythic planeswalker seeing continued play in Modern makes me willing to pick up foil copies at market price. Interestingly, the only Japanese copies I could find ended up being from Travis, who got in on them at $30 and is happy to nearly double up and move on to something else.

Decimate is a Conspiracy foil that is selling for 1/3 of the original foil. That gap will close, especially with more Conspiracy hoarded in sealed boxes than actually opened. It’s a great EDH/Commander card and should top $10 within a year or two.

The LoTV was a copy I found at an LGS that hadn’t boosted prices yet from her recent spike/US to CDN currency exchange. Abrupt Decay is a card we should all be acquiring in quantity. It will hit $20 within the year.

Sliver Hive is a highly specialized piece of real estate with huge casual demand, occasional Tier 2 Legacy play and a low chance of imminent reprint. As such I’m targeting an $8-10 price tag within 18 months and have been acquiring them in quantity since release.

As for Tasigur, my early call that he was underrated has come true, and I now expect this guy to be a multi-format player for many years. As such, his small set foils are pretty tasty at any price under $30 and I’ll aim to acquire plenty over the next few months.

On the sales side, I’m generally stock piling more than selling, but I cleaned out a few randoms this week, and I’m ramping up to out my Tasigur piles up 300% to move in on foils.

Jared Yost

• 15x End Hostilities @ $1.60
• 15x Whip of Erebos (Clash Pack FOIL) @ $2.60
• 1x Saffi Eriksdotter (Foil) @ $17.00

 

Travis Allen (@wizardbumpin)

BOUGHT

• 7x Utvara Helkite @ $3.50
• 14x Scourge of Valkas @ $2.75
• 60x Scourge of Throne @ $5.00 per
• 44x See the Unwritten @ $1.30
• 121x Battlefield Thaumaturge @ $0.25

• 95x Hall of Triumph Promo @ $0.49
• 6x Sage of Hours @ $1.25
• 36x Chord of Calling @ $3.25 per

Travis says:

Scourge of Valkas: Spreading out my Dragon holdings in anticipation of DTK increasing interest in the entire tribe. 

Utvara Hellkite: Ditto.

Scourge of the Throne: Dragons and dragon-related cards have been spiking a lot recently with Dragons of Tarkir on the horizon, and Scourge is well positioned. It’s been creeping up for awhile, and Conspiracy was not opened much. When I bought in I was intending to wait anywhere from a month or two to a year, depending on how long the demand took to squeeze the market. Turns out I was only a few hours ahead of the wave as we’ve already seen a good spike on Scourge this week!

See the Unwritten: Something will be battling against our heroes for Zendikar in the fall, and it’s a pretty safe bet they’re the Eldrazi. Who doesn’t want to dump the new Emrakul and Ulamog into play with this? At a little over $1 each, the card doesn’t even have to be good. People just have to think it will be in order to make a profit here.

Battlefield Thaumaturge: I’ve liked this card since it was spoiled, but never bought in. With Assault of Dragons in DTK, alongside another red token maker, you can kill your opponent turn four with a sequence of Dragon Tempest, Hordeling Outburst, Thamaturge and Assault. At $.25 the risk is very low and the price potential is in the double digits if the deck breaks out.

Sage of Hours: I talked about this card in my article on Wednesday.

Hall of Trimpuh: Glorious Anthem effects have always been popular, as noted by the >$1 price tag on the eponymous card despite six printings. A colorless anthem from a small spring set stands to be at least $1-$2, and possibly $3-$6.

Chord of Calling: Chord used to be a $40 card. It’s fallen out of favor somewhat lately, but with Birthing Pod gone, it is the best creature tutor in Modern. With the card at a lifetime floor, now seems as good a time as any to stock up for what could be a $7-$15 card in a year or two.

SOLD

• 3x Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver (Foil Japanese): $60.00 per

So there you have it. Now what were you guys buying and selling this week and why?

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

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I’m back. I don’t know how many people have been waiting for my next update but work got in the way. So much has happened in the magic world since I’ve been gone. The time spent away has taught me really how fast the finance market changes. Without much opportunity to trade lately I wanted to give a recap of where Legacy Hero stands and what I’m going to try and do in the near future.

I’ve had the chance to read a few things magic related while waiting to board a plane but generally, I needed the sleep more than the in-flight wifi. I missed pre-ordering any Fate Reforged but I’m not too upset about it. I try and avoid pre-ordering things in general. The Jace effect is real. (If you’ve not heard this term before, then: remember Jace, the Mind Sculptor? It wasn’t always such an expensive card. In fact, at release you could pick up copies at prices that now seem unbelievably low. But of course once people figured out how good Jace really was (coupled with being a second-set mythic with reduced supply from drafting due to A) the following third set being standalone and B) ZEN/ZEN/WWK being a miserable draft format), the price went through the roof. A lot of people felt very foolish for having sold Jaces so low. And so now, out of fear of missing “the next Jace”, pre-order and release-day prices of planeswalkers tend to be significantly inflated, with planeswalkers who have even a hint of play-ability being ludicrously inflated.*) Looking at the spoilers of Dragons of Tarkir so far I want to believe that the new Narset is going to fall into the same trap, but I’ve been wrong plenty in the past.

I don’t really play standard so I don’t have a pressing need for any of the new cards for a deck. However, I always manage to draft. A lot. Drafting gives me a great chance to get the cards I want without having to spend the money on singles.Spending the $12 on a draft that is going to entertain me for the day is great. My regular draft group doesn’t even play constructed. A couple of them play EDH but that doesn’t change the opportunities available for me to make a little profit. Having this kind of play group gives me a little bit of an advantage since (financially speaking) they’re only looking for another draft. But that only helps me if I’m there.

I haven’t played a game of magic in a while. I don’t know how many of you travel for work but if you do and you find yourself with a couple hours to spare, don’t try and use the Wizards Store Locator. It’s terrible. I tried chasing down a couple of stores but they either didn’t exist or Google Maps is the worst creation ever. Could be both. I did manage to stumble across one bookstore that used to sell magic but it had fallen out of favor with the locals. Normally, this is the opportunity that I would pay for. Being able to dust off a stores collection that hasn’t seen the light of day in god knows how long is how urban legends are born. This isn’t one of those stories. I spent an hour sifting through 8th and 9th edition bulk without finding even a Choke or Kird Ape. (In hindsight I passed on some Summer Blooms but Amulet Bloom hadn’t surprised at the Pro Tour yet) I did find something that was pretty neat. The older guy behind the counter said he had a small box of loose booster packs. He had a couple packs of Planeshift, a pack of Apocalypse, two packs of Betrayers of Kamigawa, and a open starter deck (but the cards were still sealed) labeled “Rattennest.” I don’t speak German but I knew that this was the theme deck that had Umezawa’s Jitte in it. His asking price was $40 for the box of packs. After a little negotiation I walked out of there paying $25 for

2 packs of Planeshift

1 pack of Apocalypse

2 packs of Betrayers of Kamigawa

1 theme deck ‘Rattennest” (German)

I can probably sell the theme deck on eBay for $50 and the packs I should get an average of $7 each for a total of $85 so roughly $50 profit after fees. I need a Jitte for the Stoneblade deck but I prefer to play competitive magic using non foil English cards though, so I will be selling the deck as a whole. That way I can profit and hopefully trade for a beat up English one.

Originally this article was going to be sort of a State of the Union type article because of the time I’ve been away until I reviewed my last few articles. Seems like they cover things pretty well. I mentioned that I was going to talk about trading outside the US but after looking over my notes, I realized that the topic is too deep for this installment.  It really deserves it’s own article entirely.

I was asked a few times recently about how I make ‘money’ with this and how I expect to trade up for the expensive cards like dual lands and such with ‘specs’ and nickel and dime stuff. I even received an email telling me that this whole Legacy Hero endeavor is a big waste of time. I’m not going to paste the whole email here but I will address a few of the legit points that were raised. I’m paraphrasing the points to clean things up.

“By the time you get the cards(if you even do) the deck you’ve built isn’t going to be relevant to the meta.”.  This would be a legitimate issue if I was married to a specific deck list. I’m pretty sure that I’ve mentioned before that I’m building a specific archetype, not a specific list. The archetypes in legacy are pretty consistent. The core of the decks are the same. Of course I will tune the deck based on the current meta. Yes, the original deck list(s) that I’ve posted are outdated due to the banning of Treasure Cruise but that is okay. Stoneblade isn’t going anywhere anytime soon.

“What makes you an expert?” I’m not an expert. I don’t earn my living buying and selling cards. I’ve been subsidizing my personal magic endeavors using ‘magic finance’ since I met one of the best in the business, Ryan Bushard  some years ago and listening to what he had to say. He introduced me to the very core of of mtg finance and that foundation literally changed my world. I don’t think I can ever thank him enough for everything he’s done for me. I could probably write an entire article singing his praises but you guys aren’t interested in that. That chance meeting led me to the man I call the Godfather, Jonathan Medina. I didn’t get to pick his brain nearly as much as Ryan but he really drove home the lesson of ‘Take your money now’ instead of the natural impulse of waiting for that last dollar. The tips, tricks, and tools these guys showed me a side of things that gives me an edge over the average guy in the shop but I don’t hold a candle to the true experts.

I want this whole series to show people that an average guy can do the things you read about on social media or hear about at the IQ. I want to show that I can grind my way into a legacy deck and you can too. Medina’s FNM Hero series is where I got the idea for this project. I was talking with another legend of the past, Mark Sun once upon a time about getting more people into legacy and his idea was to showcase budget legacy decks but I thought that the Legacy Hero concept was the way to go. Showing everyone the that the grind is possible will get more people on the bandwagon.

“If you already have the cards, why are you trading for them again? Why would anyone trade with you to help your legacy deck? ” I guess this is as good of a place as any to tell everyone that when I sent in my original submission to mtgprice.com I had planned on giving the deck and leftover trades away to someone that deserves it. The details of this will be announced later on but just know that this whole project will end well. It isn’t about me here.

That’s all I have for this week. Thanks for all of the feedback. I like to think that I was missed but I won’t be taking any extended breaks in the foreseeable future. This weekend will be my first visit to my local shops since I’ve been back. I hope to have some awesome trades to tell you guys about next week. I will be spending my store credit with Channel Fireball this weekend so I can try and turn that into some value. Anyone interested in buying/trading for a German Rattennest Theme deck, give me a shout.

Thanks again for reading!

@somethingsays on twitter

mtglegacyhero at the gmail