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What Warren Buffett Knows About MTG Finance

Last week, I shared an introduction to me, my motivations, and my risk equation. A Twitter conversation prompted the last of these, and it felt like an appropriate topic to share when establishing my investment style on a new website. In a way, it reveals what you can expect from me as a writer for the weeks and months to come.

But I’ll admit I got ahead of myself a bit. I began delving into the how before first covering the what. In other words, I haven’t even revealed what my current portfolio distribution looks like and how I came to these positions. Such an introductory piece is certainly merited, as it gives a baseline for future discussions. Additionally, the topic overlaps nicely with my general approach to resource allocation in MTG finance—a strategy I picked up from one of the greatest investors of all time.

Perhaps it is most appropriate to share the latter while integrating examples of the former throughout the column.

 The Oracle of Omaha

If I had to choose one particular influence in how I structure my investment portfolios—both in Magic cards and in stocks—it would have to be Warren Buffett. The Oracle of Omaha has been a successful, active stock picker for many decades. While it is cumbersome to establish a basis for his entire strategy here in one column, I will take the liberty to highlight a few key mantras I’ve picked up through my research.

  1. Find the right value at the right price.
  2. Stick to what you know.
  3. Take advantage of extremes.
  4. Know the management team.

Applying these strategies to stock picking is trivial and systematized already.  But did you know they are also highly correlated to how I conduct my MTG investing as well?

investidaglorioso

For example, consider the value equation and taking advantage of extremes. If I am confident a given MTG card or item is destined for an upward trajectory over long periods of time, then I’m most intrigued by that opportunity. The key, of course, is choosing your entry.

This is exactly how I approached my investment in shocklands. Recognizing the growth of the Modern format and WOTC’s dedication to helping it grow, I decided a sizable investment in shocklands was a wise move. Furthermore, the cheapest shockland during Standard block—Steam Vents—was also the cheapest for quite a while. Copies could be had for below $7 at one point!

Vents

The disconnect was that Steam Vents was one of the most played shocklands in Modern. Yet the card’s price was beaten and battered due to the high Return to Ravnica print run and the low Standard demand. Opportunity was knocking, and when I bought deeply into shocklands, I made sure to go deepest on Steam Vents.

The bet paid off to an extent. Just a couple years later, Steam Vents hit retail pricing nearing $14 and buylists have exceeded the low reached right around the release of Dragon’s Maze. This represents a nearly 100-percent gain from trough to peak. That was enough for me, and I rang the register at a recent Star City Games Open.

I noticed an extreme, I considered the long-term utility of the card, and made my bet accordingly. Warren Buffett would have been proud.

warrenbuffetukulele
Weekly World News

Of course, the other shocklands haven’t responded nearly as well, much to my disappointment. Abzan strategies are ubiquitous in Modern thanks to the printing of Siege Rhino, yet the shocklands corresponding to black, white, and green have barely moved. Overgrown Tomb from Return to Ravnica is flirting with its all-time low established back in May 2013.

Tomb

Would this worry Warren Buffett? Not at all. He recognizes that the market often takes time before realizing the mispricing of a given asset. Therefore, in a similar vein, I choose to sit on my copies and wait for the appreciation I’m confident will come. And if prices linger below $7, I may buy even more.  This is why shocklands remain a top holding in my portfolio.

Stick to What You Know

Because I track the Modern metagame closely, investing in shocklands is a large bet I continue to make with confidence. I understand how the format works—particularly when it comes to mana bases—and I use this knowledge to strategize how I invest.  I also recognize the risks associated with this investment and I am comfortable with the potential upside versus the downside risk.

This is directly related to another strategy of Mr. Buffett’s: sticking to what you know. Rather than chase the trendy stocks, such as 3-D printing or Chinese internet companies, Buffett prefers to invest in companies with tried-and-true strategies, large “moats,” and a history of consistent profit growth. Coca-Cola remains in Warren’s portfolio not only because of its dominant market position and global brand recognition, but also because he understands the company’s business model: make delicious soda consisting primarily of water; find an inexpensive way to bottle the product and distribute it globally; profit.

Do you believe me when I say this strategy is also directly applicable to Magic finance too? I use it all the time!

You may have heard me claim ignorance of Standard in the past. Nine times out of ten, the format bores me, and the constant fluctuation in which cards are legal and which aren’t can be bothersome. One month you could be battling with the best deck in the format, and then a new set could come out with cards that completely redefine the format. Worse yet, Standard could rotate, nullifying half your deck.

nullify

Because I avoid researching Standard, I also tend to avoid investing in cards from the format. Sure, I’ve had some successes in the past: the Innistrad checklands, Terminus, and a few others were very profitable for me. But I’ve also missed nearly as often as I’ve connected, making Standard a very suboptimal investment area. I simply can’t predict which cards will be good enough. The only buying of Standard you’ll likely see me do is pick up cards on the cheap for a quick flip during a pro tour or new set release. I almost never buy deeply into anything Standard.

On the other hand, I’ve done thorough research on sealed booster boxes. Over time, I was able to identify which sets were most attractive for investing. Once I was confident that certain boxes were undervalued and destined to go higher, I made my buys. The most significant investments I made were in Innistrad and Return to Ravnica booster boxes, though I dabbled in a few other sets as well.

The Innistrad boxes paid off very well, and every one of mine are already sold.

Innistrad

Although I did make profit on this venture, I’ll be the first to admit I sold way too prematurely. With cards like Snapcaster Mage and Liliana of the Veil hitting record highs, and the set being one of the most enjoyable to draft of all time, I should have trusted my gut and held longer. A tough lesson learned, but one worth exploring more deeply in a separate article.

What I did manage to hold onto are my Return to Ravnica booster boxes. This set was also talked highly of by Limited aficionados, and the set contains an array of eternal favorites including shocklands, Abrupt Decay, Deathrite Shaman, and Supreme Verdict. While none of these cards have hit the same price point as Snapcaster Mage, they all have significant upside as the set ages further. Eventually, these will hit a turning point and boxes will move higher. In fact, they’ve already shown some appreciation—when I bought in, it was around the floor price of $80 to $85. Now boxes are consistently selling for just above $100. It won’t be long before these go even higher, just like every booster box with eternal cards and a good drafting reputation. Applying this insight after thorough research has helped me make well-informed investment decisions.

Of course, investing in booster boxes isn’t all sunshine and roses. There are some major pitfalls I have also learned about. I’ll share details in a separate article some time, but I wanted to add this disclaimer here before a reader gets trigger-happy and randomly buys ten Khans of Tarkir boxes or something. There’s a reason I’m not buying more boxes at this point in time: the investment could still pay off, but I think there are better opportunities elsewhere. The key is sticking to what you’re most comfortable with.

Know the Management Team

You may be wondering how I could possibly tie this Buffett-ism to Magic investing. Sure, it’s good to have trust in a CEO like Bob Iger who has helped Disney grow substantially over the past few years. But there really isn’t any “management” team in Magic, is there?

Perhaps not precisely, but there is a parallel. Consider who the key decision makers are, and you can begin to understand their motivations. These motivations could have a profound impact on MTG investment choices.

Allow me to elaborate. Who is the “boss” of Magic? If you ask me, I’d venture that the Hasbro management team is the answer. They’re the ones cracking the whip and demanding certain profit numbers be hit by the WOTC team. So when they demand consistent profit growth of their brands, WOTC does what it can to deliver.

And boy, oh boy, has the company succeeded: recent sets have been blockbuster hits and supplemental products like Commander and Modern Masters have bolstered sales even further.

Of course, sales are surely augmented when Wizards dangles a carrot in front of us, right? Khans of Tarkir was hugely attractive because of the Onslaught fetchlands that were reprinted in the set. Commander products give us cards like Containment Priest and Flusterstorm, sure to delight any Legacy player. And I don’t have to tell you how easy it is for Wizards to sell a product with $200 Tarmogoyfs in the mix.

In other words, Wizards knows that reprinting money cards and creating new staples results in more product sold. That’s the management team on which I am focusing. It is their motivations that inform my investment decisions.

Board-Room
Business-Ethics.com

So how am I using this information to allocate MTG resources? WOTC continues to focus on reprinting to improve barriers of entry for Modern and, to a lesser extent, Legacy. Therefore I’m focusing resources on eternal staples which are either a) likely to dodge reprint in the short term (e.g., shocklands), or b) guaranteed to dodge reprint (e.g. dual lands).

In fact, the largest position in my entire portfolio—exceeding my shockland and booster box holdings—is my dual land position. I completely understand what drives their demand, I believe in their long-term price growth, and I know “management” won’t reprint them. It may take some patience, but dual lands have to be some of the safest investments one could make in MTG at the moment. And with recent pullbacks in pricing, certain duals are the most attractive they have been in many months.

Savannah

Trop

These two duals in particular have drifted lower since their peaks in May 2014. Just because white-green and blue-green strategies are out of favor at the moment doesn’t mean they can’t ever return to center stage. Legacy is an eternal format, and I have to believe eventually the metagame will shift yet again, yielding to new dominant strategies. For now it’s red-blue strategies that seem to show up most frequently, but in the future, who knows? All I know is that I want to build up my position of duals now while they’re flat, so that I have them during their next inevitable spike. As long as “management” stays true to their word and doesn’t reprint these cards, then we can be confident in their long-term success.

Wrapping it Up

Hopefully, this Wall Street-centric approach to MTG investing makes at least some sense. To me, it’s the most logical approach. I could try chasing the buyout of the day or flipping cards quickly for short-term profits. I could also try the slow, steady grind, trading with the sharks at major events. But both of these approaches are time-consuming and arduous.

I would much rather use my time wisely by investing in cards with good long-term value, confident growth, and a wide moat. I trust in an investment like dual lands because I don’t think they’ll ever be outclassed and their demand is very steady while supply marches lower little by little over the years. This same reassurance just isn’t available for a short-term investment.

And when I find these opportunities—especially the ones with high upside potential and low downside risk—I make a decisive move.  In a way, this is also related to a Buffett type of strategy.  Once we find a great opportunity, we shouldn’t be afraid to move in with our resources.  Consider how Buffett’s current stock portfolio is very heavily weighted towards four individual stocks, making up 62 percent of his portfolio!

Portfolio

I follow this same weighted approach in my own stock investing.  But I also allow this principle to guide my MTG investing as well.  This is the reason I’ve got over 50 percent of my total MTG portfolio tied up in three primary investments: shocklands (foil and nonfoil), Return to Ravnica booster boxes, and dual lands.  These are three asset classes I’m confident in, and so I’m allocating my resources appropriately.  While I have plenty of smaller bets, just like Buffett, I try to place larger amounts in the areas I feel best about.

I may not make the most profit ever by following such a conservative approach, but I know I won’t be losing money either. And seeing as my goal is to make money to fund a college education, I can’t afford to be losing money too often. Therefore, I won’t be deviating from my strategy any time soon—in both my stock market and my MTG market investments. To do so would be bad for business.

Sig’s Quick Hits

  • Want to play blue-black in Tiny Leaders? Don’t look to Star City Games, then—they’re all out of the only blue-black leader legal in the format: Sygg, River Cutthroat. They’ve been sold out of the creature for weeks now with that same $6.19 price tag. I’m waiting for the inevitable price bump.
  • Ad Nauseam strategies seem to be showing up a little more frequently in Legacy top eights since the banning of Treasure Cruise. Perhaps this is why Lion’s Eye Diamond is once again sold out at SCG with a price tag of $86.29. As long as it doesn’t get banned, you could do worse than to pick up a copy or two in trade if you’re looking for a long-term investment beyond dual lands.
  • Need Rift Bolts for your Modern Burn deck? You’re not going to find any at Star City Games. Despite being reprinted a couple of times, the card is completely sold out at the major retailer. Prices range from $1.85 for the MMA copy to $3.99 for FNM and Time Spiral versions.

MTGFinance: What We’re Buying/Selling This Week (April 4/15)

By James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

One of the most common misconceptions about folks involved in MTGFinance is that we are constantly manipulating the market and feeding players misinformation to help fuel achievement of our personal goals.

It recently occurred to us here that though we dole out a good deal of advice, most of you ultimately have very little insight into when we actually put our money where our collective mouths are pointing. As such we’ve decided to run a weekly series simply breaking down what we’ve been buying this week and why. These lists are meant to be both complete and transparent, leaving off only cards we bought without hope of profit, where appropriate. We’ll also try to provide some insight into our thinking behind the specs, and whether we are aiming for a short (<1 month), mid (1-12 month), or long (1 year+) term flip. Here’s what we were up to this week:

Buying Period: March 29 – April 4, 2015

Note: All cards NM unless otherwise noted. All sell prices are net of fees unless noted.

James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

BOUGHT (Dragons of Tarkir)

SOLD

My buy list was pretty concentrated this week, with a lot of money dropped into my belief that Sidisi, Undead Vizier will continue to play a strong role in Standard as a 2-3 in multiple decks heading into summer. With supply rising at present, it could be next fall before this card has a chance to push towards it’s likely $8-10 upper limit, at which point I’ll be looking to trade out or leverage Pucatrade to exit. The likely presence of Eldrazi spawn in Return to Zendikar should keep the card relevant into 2016.

Snapcaster Mage can easily hit $60-70 this year, so I can’t pass up on a $35 entry point from a friend who chose to reward me for turning him on to the spec 18 months ago. A great example of the value of building community and working karma when pursuing your #mtgfinance objectives. Given that I can out the Snapcasters to Pucatrade for the equivalent of $50 immediately, this is just a solid all-around play.

Collected Company took down a mid-sized Modern tournament in Europe during it’s debut last weekend, and my ears perked up at the prospects on foils for this DTK rare card. In a world where power creep on low casting cost creatures is very real, this is a card that just keeps getting better as it finds more interesting aggro, tempo or combo oriented pieces to go searching for. The deck in question was even running a couple of copies of Garza’s Assassin so I snagged a few copies to test with.

Ashiok was a sell for me since Sultai has fallen of my radar for Standard and his price is surprisingly high given his pending fall rotation. I actually think Ashiok has potential legs in Modern, so I’ll be looking to re-enter around $5 come October.

 

Douglas Johnson (@rose0fthorns)

BOUGHT (Pucatrade)

Note: Points roughly equal USD/100. e.g., 700 points equals $7 in card purchasing value.

Douglas says:

“As noted in my article this week, I believe Nyxathid is a solid example of a spike waiting to happen. The card has casual appeal, minor competitive play, and has never been reprinted. I think non-foils can hit $6-7, and foils could go as high as $15. i want to have these so that I can list them on TCGplayer into future hype. 

The Olivia is for my Marchesa EDH deck that I’m slowly in the process of foiling out, and the rest of the mono-black EDH pieces are to complete a local customers’ order who buys singles from me. Always nice to turn Pucapoints into cash at a 1:1 ratio and be the hero who has stuff that no one else does!”

Jared Yost

Jared says:

“Similar to Dragonspeaker Shaman, Dragon Arch is another way to accelerate dragons into play in casual formats. Even though it only affects the multicolored ones, we just received a ton of them in Dragons of Tarkir and I feel that if the card becomes more known then more players will look to pickup copies. There is only one printing, so it also has that going for it.  It’s just a very solid overall card. It can even act as a slightly worse Quicksilver Amulet since it can put any multicolored creature into play.”

Ross Lennon

Ross says:

“DP feels like the exact kind of card to break out at a Pro Tour, and at ~30 cents each, it’s low risk and even if it tops out at $3-5, I’m still in at the ground floor. I plan to buy even more soon.

Pitiless Horde has an incredible amount of versatility in terms of playability, and it kills people FAST. I am a big believer in this card as a finisher for every possible archetype. “
Danny Brown
Note: Points roughly equal USD/100. e.g., 700 points equals $7 in card purchasing value.
  • 1x Dragon Hunter @ 52 points
  • 1x Zurgo Bellstriker @ 300 points
  • 1x Tasigur, the Golden Fang @ 774 points
  • 1x Dack’s Duplicate @ 105 points
  • 1x Craterhoof Behemoth @1197 points

Danny says:

“These were 100 percent Cube pickups, but if you read my introductory article, you know that I carefully consider all my pickups, even ones to play with. Dragon Hunter and Zurgo Bellstriker are both examples of me not being patient, as they will both likely be available for about half these prices at some point in the next year or two. I sucked it up because I can never have enough one-drops in white or red, and these ones are easy includes.

Tasigur, the Golden Fang has proven its power in Standard and Modern, and I would not be surprised to start seeing it more often in Legacy. It’s only a rare, but it’s from a small set, so even its floor is a little lower, it can’t be that much lower. I would start stockpiling these if they dropped to $6 or lower.

Conspiracy wasn’t hugely opened, so Dack’s Duplicate will probably never go lower, even if it never necessarily goes up from here. I’m going to try it out over Prophetic Bolt. Haste on a clone is pretty big game, and there’s even more upside here, so I’m hoping for big things.

Finally, Craterhoof Behemoth was a $6 boat I missed, but after hitting the $15 to $20 range at one point, this seems like a fine time to get a slightly better price before some Legacy Elf win causes the hoof daddy to jump overnight. Plus, it’s insane in Cube and it was impossible to justify not having it in my list.”

So there you have it. Now what were you guys buying and selling this week and why?

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

ADVERTISEMENT: Get the Cube Starter Bundle with the 3rd Edition Grimoire Deck Box, the brand new Grimoire Deck Box designed specifically for the red mage in you. 

So You Want to Play Magic for Free?

Greetings! Today is a big day for me: my first article on MTGPrice. I am humbled and honored to be part of this top-notch team of some of the best minds in MTG finance.

Goals and Expectations

When I first started writing about MTG finance, I felt woefully inadequate compared to many of my peers, and to some extent, that’s still true. Many of the writers on this site make a living exclusively by buying and selling Magic cards. Others have experience in real-life finance and stock trading. Some are funding their college educations through MTG.

By contrast, my primary goal in MTG finance is just to play for free. That’s it! Sure, every once in a while, I’ll buy in to a card and make some real-life cash profit. Those times are nice, but they’re not frequent, because constant speculating is time-consuming, and most of my free time is taken up by this little dude:

IMG_5546

The time I do have outside of my full-time job is precious, and the fact is that constantly buying and selling Magic cards is a pain. Maintaining a large inventory, the daily packaging and shipping of cards, having to travel to large events in far-off locations every single weekend… these things can be rewarding and profitable, but they’re a grind. Could I do it? Maybe. Do I want to? Not in the slightest.

I’ll tell you straight up: the perspective I’m bringing is of someone who worries over when the best time to buy a single copy of a card for my cube is, or maybe a playset for a Constructed deck. My definition of “going deep” on a card is 20 to 30 copies. If you’re a store owner or someone who goes hundreds deep on most speculation targets, I like to think my insights will still be applicable, but  there may be other columnists on this site whose objectives more closely align with yours.  Rather than feeling inadequate compared to those other writers, though, I’m just going to own it: my goals are different than theirs.

Namely, I’m looking to spend as little time as possible on Magic finance so I can spend the most time possible actually playing Magic without spending money to do so. Does that sound similar to what you want? Then we’ll get along just fine. Read on.

Why MTG Finance Matters

If you’re new to Magic: The Gathering, I hate to break it you, but you are going to have to spend a significant amount of money if you want to be competitive in basically any format. I know it’s rough, but unless you’re lucky enough to have inherited an old collection from a family member, you are just going to have to accept that this is an expensive hobby, and it’s at its most expensive of all when you’re just starting out.

Now, you’re currently on a Magic finance website reading an article about playing Magic for free, and that shows that you’re at least interested in mitigating these start-up costs. That’s awesome. Deciding you want to spend as little as possible to get as much as possible out of this hobby is an excellent first step.

I have good news for you new players, and it applies to the established players, too: once you have a decent-sized collection, the world of MTG opens up to you exponentially. Why? Because Magic cards are probably the most liquid, easy-to-sell assets that you own (unless you’re involved in commodities markets or drugs or something). There are buylists all over the internet, many of them featured on MTGPrice, waiting to buy your cards at a moment’s notice. Most adults don’t often work in the barter system, but trades of cards for cards happen every day in every LGS across the world. You can use a service like PucaTrade to turn the cards you have into cards you want from the comfort of your own home, or turn to eBay to try to sell individual cards for a little more than buylist pricing. There are many, many ways to get rid of cards for either cash or different cards.

So once you have a collection, it’s not hard to turn that collection into a specific group of cards you want—for play, for speculation, for collecting, or for chewing on (in my son’s case). Of course, you can only leverage your collection into the exact cards you want if you understand how MTG finance works: how seasonal price patterns work, how rotation works, how Standard pricing works, how eternal format pricing works, how casual formats impact the marketplace, the best ways to out your cards, and more.

That’s why Magic finance matters: because almost anybody can play almost any format with enough knowledge, time, and dedication. There’s no reason you need to resort to less powerful budget decks to get your fun out of this game, but there’s also no reason for you to overspend in acquiring top-tier staples in your favorite format. You just need to develop a couple important attributes.

Two Crucial Attributes for a Finance-Minded Mage

I can’t stress enough the importance of patience for the finance-inclined player.

It has been literal years since I preordered a card. Yes, occasionally there’s a Bonfire of the Damned or a Sphinx’s Revelation that blows up and makes those who got in early a ton of money, but in the vast majority of cases, cards fall steeply from their preorder prices. If we’re spending as little time as possible on MTG finance, that means just assuming everything in the set will fall and not worrying about the potential of underpriced cards.

Some players collect as much as possible from Standard-legal sets to allow the biggest pool possible when building a deck for FNM or other events. I’ve seen countless players who immediately start acquiring playsets of every card in the new set as soon as it’s available on shelves.

If you’re trying to stretch your MTG dollars to the max, though, you need to stop doing this. Between WOTC’s marketing and best-case-scenario mentality in a large portion of the playerbase, new cards are almost always over-hyped. So few of them end up being competitive staples, and those that do often still end up cheaper than their preorder prices.

Just wait. Observe what’s competitive, figure out what you want to play, and obtain the cards that apply. Picking up cards blindly—especially Standard cards—just because “I might need it someday” is a quick way to end up with a bunch of cards that are dropping in value quickly and don’t have a deck.

If you’re acquiring a card for a casual format like Cube or Commander, there is no reason to ever preorder. In fact, if a card is a Standard-only staple, I tend to not pick it up until it’s rotated. For example, Elspeth, Sun’s Champion could not be more of a staple in Standard, but at a mana cost of six, it will never see play in competitive eternal formats. This means it will drop steeply at rotation, when I will pick a copy for my cube. (Off topic: it was such a missed opportunity to go with “Sun’s Champion” instead of “Champion of the Sun.”)

Now, let me state that it’s absolutely a fair stance to take to pay more for a card because you desperately want to play with it and are willing to pay the extra cost. You also should be playing optimized decks in major tournaments, and if that means overspending on a card, you gotta do what you gotta do. And if you’re speculating on a card, then as a matter of course, you think the price you’re paying is fine and that it’s likely to go up. These are situations where patience doesn’t really apply. But if you’re looking to spend the minimum amount on Magic that still allows you to be competitive or just have a fun-to-play-with collection , it’s the most important attribute you can develop. Wait until a card is at its floor price before buying in. If you need it beforehand, sure, buy it, but until then, there’s no rush.

Speaking  of needs, the second key attribute I’ll be mentioning today is developing a good sense of the concept of wants versus needs. You need to be able to look at that Sower of Temptation foil in your LGS’s display case and say to it, “It’s you I want, but it’s [the non-foil copy] that I need.”

It’s hard to think of two less related things than playing Magic for free and acquiring foils and other high-value cards. This is 100 percent a matter of personal opinion, but to me, there’s no sense in acquiring anything other than the least expensive version of a card to play with (within reason—I’ll pay a little more for an old-bordered version of a card, for example). I believe that it’s easier to have fun with 30 cards worth $30 each than with one card worth $1000, and that’s how I treat my own collection.

Now, I’m not saying you’re not allowed to like foils, and you can even incorporate the acquisition of foils into this whole “playing Magic for free” thing, but you’re almost never going to see me talk about them or advocate buying them. They’re a facet of the market that  I don’t fully understand, appreciate, or even like. My advice is to simply focus on non-foils until you have every card you could ever want to play with and are ready to start upgrading. Until then, high-end cards just don’t make a lot of sense.

And frankly, even if I ever reach the point of owning every card I could possibly want, I’ll just keep my non-foils and spend that extra money on things unrelated to Magic, thank you. That is allowed, you know.

cheapass

Pass the Turn

Again, I’m looking forward to being here at MTGPrice for the foreseeable future, and I’d love to hear your feedback on both what I’ve written already and what you’d like to see me write moving forward. Always feel free to leave a comment below or reach out to me on Twitter at @dbro37.  See you next week!

Going Mad – Hello, and Good Luck

Hello, my name is Derek Madlem and I write about Magic: The Gathering. I’ve been writing articles about all types of topics on MythicMTG for a few years now and most recently wrote Insider articles for Quiet Speculation. Now I’m here to write articles for you. Yes, you. Because you deserve it.

You might have seen me around. I’m on Twitter (@GoingMadlem) disagreeing with basically everyone about everything and occasionally dishing out the same lessons in Magic finance over and over again.

Like this gem:

Give a man a ‘Goyf, and he’s going to want three more.

Which pretty much sums up everything I have to say about the impending Tarmogoyf reprint in Modern Masters II: The Remastering. Okay, I’ll spell it out for the slow kids: I don’t think the reprint will have much impact on Tarmogoyf’s price because half the people that open one will begin their quests for three more.  There’s also an upward pressure on Tarmogoyf’s price due to the fetch-wealth of the common man … a topic I’ll elaborate on another time.

Origins

I’m a trader at heart. I honed my trading skills in the first grade, trading Battle Beasts for Micro Machines and graduated to swapping X-Men action figures with my school friends. I would trade the hot character from a given week’s episode or a rare find for three or four other figures.

mu13main

When I picked up my first pack of Magic: The Gathering in 1995, I was hooked. I combined my weekly allowance with my lunch money to fund my addiction, thinking, “Why spend $4 on lunch when I could buy four packs of Fallen Empires?” Ah, hindsight …

It took me a while to stumble out of the awestruck phase of kitchen-table Magic and begin to trade with real goals. On a shoestring budget with an addiction for cracking packs, I traded my way into the power nine in just a couple short years, all while selling cards to negate the need for a part-time job. Obviously, I sold all my power right before college.

Sometime during Shards of Alara, I found my way back to Magic with limited funds and ever-growing ambitions. I had missed out on nearly a decade of the game and needed to fill in the gaps.

All the cool kids were playing formats that didn’t really exist when I stopped playing in 2000, and I wanted to be one of the cool kids, so I had to acquire some cards.

Finance Style

The most important thing for any budding MTG financier (a term I use loaded with sarcasm) is that there is no one-size-fits-all method. My goal has always been to feed my desires: an ever-moving target that shifts from week to week. When I play Magic, I want to play whatever deck strikes my fancy, a curse that basically requires me to acquire every card I could possibly want. It also doesn’t help that the only thing I hate more than letting people borrow cards is asking people to borrow theirs.

When I’m not playing or writing about Magic, I tend to ignore the fact that Magic exists. I can’t be bothered to follow spikes and crashes day to day—that’s just not for me. I tend to focus on mid-to-long-term price trends. While you’re taking the quick double up on Dragonlord Ojutai, I’m shooting aliens in the face on Destiny. While you’re reading articles about Brad Nelson’s beard, I’m in the garage building furniture.

I rarely sell cards, choosing to unload most of my wares through trades. Long gone are the days that I’ll throw away a weekend binder grinding. These days, I do most of my trading through PucaTrade and with a handful of players and dealers that I’ve developed trade relationships with.

And I’ve done alright:

Humblebrags#humblebrags

If you’re here for the hot tip on the quick flip, I’m probably not your guy. But if you’re here for the tools to help curate your collection for the long haul? Well then, I might be your guy.

Words About Cards?

But you’re not hear to read about me are you? You want to know about Magic cards, don’t you? With the combination SCG Invitational / Standard Open this past weekend, we have a treasure trove of results to comb through for big winners, but are their newly-inflated prices warranted?

Sidisi, Undead Vizier

Sidisi, Undead Vizier – As of writing this article, Sidisi is hovering a little over the $4 mark on TCG with many saying it could easily go to $10. I disagree. Sidisi suffers from a couple things that hinder its potential.

For starters, Sidisi is legendary, so drawing multiple copies hurts, resulting in most decks limiting the number of copies. Being a five-drop that doesn’t have an immediate impact on the board doesn’t help matters, as we’re spoiled by cards like Stormbreath Dragon and Siege Rhino. The card is still playable because Demonic Tutor is one hell of an effect, even if you do have to sacrifice a creature to achieve it. The real killer here is the reality that being a five-mana creature without haste or an effect that immediately impacts the board means that this card is going to be hard-pressed to make its way into Modern or Legacy. Note that if Birthing Pod was still legal, we’d be having an entirely different conversation.

So what that leaves us with is a rare in large set that will see play as a one- or two-of in Standard and in a variety of Commander decks. I am of the mind that this card is going to see a little spike based on on-screen action at the pro tour, but $6 or $7 is about as high as I would expect it to go before dipping back down to $2 or $3 in the weeks following Pro Tour Dragons of Tarkir.

Thunderbreak Regent

Thunderbreak Regent – Now there’s a card that has wings. Thunderbreak showed up as a four-of in a number of red-green aggro decks that performed well this last weekend. I’m sure we’ll see more of this card in the coming weeks, so a $10 or $15 price tag seems very possible as this starts to slot into Jeskai or Temur aggro decks. Being able to drop this into play with a Stubborn Denial for protection does not seem like a bad position to be in.

Dromoka's Command

Dromoka’s Command is a harder one to gauge. Often, prices are spurred by more than just results and utility cards just aren’t as flashy and exciting as dragons or zombie snakes, even if they don’t count as snakes. This card is currently sitting at $6, and it’s obviously going to see play as long as mana bases are reasonably capable of supporting two colors … but it’s just not exciting. It’s a conditional two-for-one that doesn’t outright perform the deed and can be an atrocious topdeck in the late game, so running a full four-of is going to be a lot harder to justify. I can realistically seeing this card settle around $3.

That said, I can see this card showing up in Modern sideboards, so I like foil copies in the long term if you can find them under $10.

Deathmist Raptor

Deathmist Raptor – I might be changing course on my opinion of this card, as I wasn’t a fan at first, second, or even third glance, but the lack of aggressive three-drops in green has long been a problem. The ability to “trade up” with large creatures combined with situational rebuys will ensure this is a strong role player over the next 18 months. But role players don’t hold $15 price tags—I can see this card settling in for the long haul at $10, but I fear it’s probably near its price ceiling now.

Dragonlord Silumgar

Dragonlord Silumgar is a mythic legendary creature that showed up as a silver bullet in Reid Duke’s Sultai Reanimator list. Where I come from, we have a name for mythic creatures that only get played as single copies: Pearl Lake Ancient, though we sometimes call them Torrent Elemental. You can see that both of these cards peaked between $6 and $7 and quickly found their ways downward. Silumgar will likely hold a strong casual appeal, but the dragons of Fate Reforged and Dragons of Tarkir were just not made to be compelling characters that will hold long-term fans . I don’t expect Silumgar to hold onto his value for long, even if he does have a really sweet necklace.

Dragonlord Ojutai

Dragonlord Ojutai is entirely overpriced at $14. This is clearly a powerful card and painfully hard to kill, but then why would you ever need a full four copies? People get entirely too excited at the prospect of playing Esper control decks, and while the hype on this card is partially merited, I can’t find myself getting on board at $14. I would recommend shipping any extra copies of this card you might have.

The Kicker

While you can see that I’m generally cold to this weekend’s breakout cards, and pretty much everything in Dragons of Tarkir for that matter, there’s still plenty of time. Pro Tour Dragons of Tarkir is still a couple weeks away and most of these prices will remain relatively stable until then, especially with Easter getting in the way of additional format discovery this weekend.

Until next time, you can find me on Twitter at @GoingMadlem.