Cheating

June 1, 2016 Jason Alt 5 Comments

I spent a lot of time last week thinking about how we were going to build Superfriends decks in the future because our mana is going to be so crazy bonkers with the advent of a bunch of four-color decks that people will be able to be super greedy. While I think it’s true that Superfriends are about to get a bit of a bump, I think it’s also worth taking a lot at other ways players plan to play cards with their wacky new cards. I have a few different theses to cover so I’m going to launch right into it because I want to get all of my thoughts out before I hit my word cap. I mean, it’s a soft word cap. You’re not going to want to read a 4,000 word article, true, but I’m also going to hit like 2,300 words and think “I’m not getting paid any extra for this” and that’s going to sap my enthusiasm in a hurry. So, like I said, I’m not going to waste time – I am going to get right to it and cover what I want to cover. I think you readers are worth it.

Thesis Number the First – People Will Build New 4-color Decks

And why not? They’re going to get new cards that are 4 colors. I have to imagine there will be at least one good creature and one good spell per deck that are 4 colors and if it’s that hard to cast that spell, the effect is going to worth it. Just look at the spells we have now that cost 5 mana – Coalition Victory, Last Stand, Conflux, Maelstrom Nexus – these are good spells. They’re difficult to cast because they require a mana of every color and they’re even more difficult to cast in EDH because we have to have a general with all 5 colors in their identity.

4 color spells are obviously easier to cast than 5 color ones but not all that much easier and, again, you can only play them in a deck where the general has all of those colors in their color identity. How are people going to cast those spells?

They’ll fix their mana

This one seems obvious, but it’s worth mentioning. There are a few ways I think people will try this.

These would have been better to buy at their historic lows, but now that they’re starting to rebound, it seems fairly obvious that it’s time to get these if you need them. You can fetch these with fetchlands and Farseek and you don’t need to shell out for a Savannah to get basically a Savannah. Sometimes people put ABU duals in EDH decks. Super, go ahead and do that. Or, you know, sell them and build a new deck for basically every dual you sell. I’m not trying to tell you how to live your life, but I will tell you that shocks are going to go up more and people will need them. In a 4-color deck you can play a lot of them. You can play 1 in a 2-color deck, 3 in a 3-color deck, 10 in a 5-color deck and 6 in a 4-color deck. If every new deck that gets built means the builder needs 6 new fetches, they will be closer to $20 than $10 in a year or two if they’re not reprinted. Return to Return to Ravnica doesn’t seem all that close so I think we’re safe for a minute.

Ditto here. These aren’t at a historical low or high, but I bet this plateau means they’re not going anywhere for a minute. Dealer interest is waning, so I’d wait for these to crater and recover, but EDH demand could give these some upside, although supply is super high right now with everyone having them in their decks and binders, still.

Them putting these in every deck seems as unlikely to me as them putting them in only some decks. I think this doesn’t get reprinted and I think the price goes up. Conspiracy might be a good venue to print this but I bet they won’t. I bet this card gets ridiculous before it gets reasonable.

This card has some real upside. It is a creature that is also mostly a Chromatic Lantern and people are starting to notice. With a new focus on mana fixing, this is going to be a player if people remember to use it. This even lets you use utility lands for mana if you have something like Tabernacle (you don’t have a Tabernacle) or Maze of Ith that doesn’t tap for mana.

This probably won’t get bought more because it’s so expensive, but I bet it gets played more. EDH demand could start to make it disappear from Pucatrade which could signal other markets.

This are like $2 in other printings. That has to change the farther we get from the last time it was printed.

How else will people play stuff in 4-color decks?

They’ll Cheat

Not at Magic, necessarily, I mean they’ll cheat stuff into play. There are a lot, lot, lot of ways to do this and they all have upside.

A guy with this in his Legacy deck isn’t going to trade it to an EDH player. He won’t want any of the cards the EDH player has. But some rando busting this in a pack in the LGS might be inclined. The new supply might hurt the price for a while, but if it gets low enough, EDH demand could buoy the price based on people who wrote the card of as unobtainable before now using it. This is a fine way to cheat.

This has been printed a ton but the price doesn’t seem to want to dip below around $7. This has a decent reprint risk but it also has demonstrated an ability to mostly shrug off reprints. I like this as a pickup.

Meanwhile I bet this never gets reprinted. This is starting to move up and I bet if more people play it because the new creatures are savage and hard to cast, this could see movement. This is just a solid gainer in my view and it looks like markets and dealers are finally on board with that assessment.

It would take a lot to drag this above bulk but it is worth remembering this card exists. It’s too good.

Bet you thought this was still bulk, didn’t you? Well, it’s not. The price has basically doubled in the last year and that’s good for business. This is on its way up and I bet this could hit $5 if it’s not reprinted. And why would it be reprinted?

I’ve made money off of this card twice and it would please me to do so a third time. With copies concentrated in the hands of dealers, how easy would that be? Very easy, that’s how. Very easy.

Mirri’s Guile, Sylvan Library and Sensei’s Divining Top are nice pairings with this spicy vintage. Cream of the Crop, too. All of those cards can go in a deck that can have green in it. Mayael, anyone?

I bought all of the copies I have years ago for $2 each. That’s about as fair as putting something into play with this. Granted it’s not the best way to throw out an Eldrazi, but can you really complain about having a creature that big if you miss a few of its triggers? It That Betrays doesn’t mind getting tossed out EOT with this beauty. This card isn’t even close to being done growing.

This may do it randomly, but don’t pretend it’s not cheating. This card is rare from an old set and it’s on the Reserved List. If this gets any notice at all it could hit $5 fairly easily and it would be pretty boss to chop into Pucapoints rather than buylist for $3.

Everyone realized this would be nuts with Narset and the price went up accordingly. However, this is a great way to cheat creatures into play. If you have nothing but fatties and tokens, it’s even better. This is taking a break from climbing, but it will be back at it as soon as something else is printed that is saucy with it and there is only one deck from Commander 2016 that won’t have blue in it meaning you have 4 chances to find something saucy to go with this.

Modern spiked this card, which sucks because that deck doesn’t play it anymore, the price is really high for an EDH card and the copies are concentrated in the hands of dealers meaning a second spike will be much harder and faster. The only bright spot is that this seems relatively easy to reprint. Just kidding, that’s terrible because everyone who paid $10 for these will eat it in that case. I don’t know when they’re going to reprint this, or even if they will, but this is destined to go beyond $10 just on EDH demand and it’s too much fun to play this card. Dealer confidence is creeping up which means they’re selling copies which means the price shift is organic and predicated on real demand. This bodes well. Graphs that look like this make me want to buy.

This is on its way back up. The reprinting made the price very reasonable but Modern hasn’t gone as cuckoo for this as they did a few years ago and the new supply did wonders for controlling the price. This is a very easy way to cast a creature with a nutty effect and goofy casting cost and you can even tap tokens to do it. What could be better? This is a fine way to cheat at Magic.

Legacy and EDH are keeping this card pretty expensive since it’s banned in Modern. Eternal Masters copies are going to make this dirt cheap and if this hits like $2 I recommend investing like $100. It could get reprinted again which will make it take a while before you can recoup your $100. More likely is that it recovers and lands around $5 because it’s so good in EDH. Less likely is that it’s unbanned in Modern and becomes like $15 overnight and then you look like Nostradamndamus. I’m not saying it will happen but I am saying that there are three basic scenarios and in the worst case you still break even eventually.

This card is very expensive. This card is also tailing down a bit and since it’s demonstrated the ability to be $25, you might want to watch it crash then buy in because it will go back up because how could it not? It’s Tooth and Nail. This is in so many EDH “I win” combos it isn’t funny. No, seriously, have you lost to this card? It isn’t funny. It’s annoying. I cast this entwined to get Kiki-Jiki and Zealous Conscripts on turn 4 one time. It wasn’t funny. I mean, it was to me, but when 4 out of 5 people at a table think something isn’t funny, maybe you’re the one who’s wrong. That’s Comedy 101.

At this point, I’m going to audible and save my second thesis for next week. We still have plenty of time before we start getting any cards previewed so we can look more at how players are going to cheat using the new cards next week. I have plenty to say on the topic and I really don’t want to load this article with too much information. Let’s reconvene next week and look at a second way I expect people to cheat using older cards to help them cast newer cards. It should be a hoot. Until then!

City of Traders

PROTRADER: Masters for at Least a Little While

June 1, 2016 Travis Allen 4 Comments

By: Travis Allen
@wizardbumpin

Don’t miss this week’s installment of MTG Fast Finance! An on-topic, no-nonsense tour through the week’s most important Magic economy changes.

Eternal Masters spoilers wrapped up last Friday, and general reaction has been quite favorable. While not every card made it in – I’ve seen no shortage of jokes and hand wringing regarding Damnation and the lack thereof – people are all-in-all pleased with the outcome. While people weren’t exactly clamoring for Chome Mox or Vindicate, cards like Mana Crypt, Karakas, Natural Order, and Sneak Attack are great “accessibility” reprints, and Gamble, Force of Will, Entomb, and Shardless Agent provide opportunities to pick up foils that otherwise didn’t exist, are ugly as hell, or were exorbitantly expensive. All in all, Magic is better for the release.

The question now is how should we approach it? This is tough, especially because what each one of us wants out of it is different. Is your intention to sit on sealed product? Are you looking to spec on targeted singles? Or maybe you’re more in my camp; mostly interested in just picking up a few personal items for as cheap as possible.

Sealed Product

Three years ago, Modern Masters hit the shelves. Supply was constrained and while you could occasionally and briefly find product at MSRP, there wasn’t much of it. I saw a few boxes floating around the $220 mark, but there weren’t many, and it was limited to local pockets.

In February I wrote an article about what to do with sealed MMA product. I concluded that it was getting time to start selling, and that cracking for singles was probably the right idea, but that leaving boxes sealed was only marginally less profitable, and accounting for time, probably a better idea overall.

Quite recently, the equation has begun to shift. Sealed MMA boxes have seen an uptick in sale prices. eBay completed auctions jumped into the $370 to $400 range, and the TCGLow has similarly moved, and in fact, there’s only a handful of boxes under $400. The two boxes I’ve had sitting there since I wrote the article suddenly sold for around $375 each. Before fees that’s about $150 profit on a box. (After, it’s a lot closer to $100.) $100 profit on a $220 investment is a little less than a 50% return, in the span of three years. 50% ROI over three years is pretty great, especially when you consider that it’s a lot easier to put thousands or tens of thousands of dollars into – and get back out of – boxes than it is one dollar rares.

Modern Masters 2015 had a different print run; one which was considerably larger. Today, a full year since release, boxes are still available at $240. That’s MSRP; 24 packs at $10 each. I don’t recall exactly how much MMA boxes were one year later, but I know it wasn’t MSRP. This is no doubt due to a few factors. I don’t expect that the natively higher MSRP on MM2 was a culprit, but the overall lower quality of reprinted rares has certainly stymied interest. In addition it had a much larger print run than MMA. It’s really difficult to put a ratio on that, since we don’t get official sales numbers, but I wouldn’t be surprised if MM2 had anywhere between 30 and 100 percent more boxes available than MMA. I’ve even heard projections as high as fives times MMA. That glut of supply, combined with a less-exciting rare slot, has kept prices from rising. Of course, it’s only been a year. How will boxes look after three? I don’t know and that’s not today’s article.

Those Vegas GPs played no small part in the supply of both sets either. MMA had Las Vegas, while MM2 had Las Vegas, Chiba, and Utrecht. With a player count just south of 8,000 for Las Vegas alone, there were roughly 2,000 boxes of MM2 opened in the main event. If each store was allocated maybe 20 boxes of MM2, that means Las Vegas accounted for 100 stores worth of product. How many states worth of stores is that? I’d guess New York has what, 50 stores maybe? This also doesn’t account for all the side event product, or the other two GPs. All in all, I’d guess the entire GP weekend cracked enough MM2 packs to match a large portion of the entire eastern seaboard’s distribution.

Of course, EMA has no such GP. That’s thousands of packs going uncracked. And given distributor numbers so far, it looks like we’re getting far less EMA than we did MM2, and possibly even MMA. There’s also an expectation that distributors and local stores are going to hold product a lot closer to the chest this time around. With diminished supply and a built-in pedigree of distinction, there’s an incentive to slowly dole out your allocated boxes. I’m reminded of the diamond market.

The sum of all this is that if you can get boxes at MSRP, it’s basically a slam dunk. I’m pretty sure the expected value is over MSRP at this point anyways, so essentially you’d be a fool not to buy it at that price. What about north of MSRP though? I’m seeing boxes in the $300 to $350 range, which is already 50% over MSRP. That’s, well, brutal. Remember I made 50% profit on my MMA boxes over the course of three years. At the same time, there’s simply less EMA out there, it will generally be more desirable, the cards are less likely to be reprinted, and if they do run back another Eternal Masters, it will be missing many of the cards it has this time around. Sure, you’ll see Force of Will and Wasteland return, but what about Gamble or Mana Crypt?

Overall, I’d say paying less than $300 is reasonably safe. I can’t imagine how you lose money on that, so the worst case scenario is that you end up outing it to someone local for basically what you paid. Boxes at MSRP are a home run, and if you find one at that price that you can’t afford you call your friend and tell them to get their ass to the store. The possible upside on boxes is also large, as if the distribution numbers end up landing where we’re predicting them to, prices could end up in the $500+ range in a few years. For those of you looking to make some real money on Magic investments, you could do a lot worse.

All the Single Ladies

Here’s a photo that was shared by fellow writer Jim Casale. (No idea who created it.)

Those are all the cards, as of probably a week ago, that are worth more than the cost of a pack. Prices have begun slipping on the low end, with Shardless Agent, Vindicate, and Maelstrom Wanderer beginning to fall below $10. Of course, single prices will be at their absolute highest right now, since we’re in maximum hype/minimum supply territory. In about a month we’ll probably see several more dip beneath double digits.

Here’s roughly what we can expect:

Across the top ten or so MMA cards, most saw their local valleys between mid-October and early December. I’d expect EMA singles to follow a similar pattern. Most sets usually see their floors several months after printing, and it just so happens that a set released in June hits that time period during the shopping frenzy ahead of Christmas, when wallets are thin and attention is directed elsewhere. That’s when I’ll be shopping for my singles, and I’d recommend the same for you too.

Although really, I’ll be looking for foils, and waiting may not be ideal. Here’s a handful of foil price graphs, to contrast the non-foils above.

It would seem that while non-foils enjoy a cooling off period over the span of several months, we shouldn’t hold our breath for the same thing on shiny copies. Prices will be erratic as people try and figure out what foil prices should be in the days leading up to and directly after release, but once they find their foothold, I don’t foresee any dramatic drops in price. In fact, if we’re modeling our predictions on MMA, you’re far more likely to get blown out by waiting. Most MMA foils were close to their floor in the weeks and months following release, and then experienced various rates and severities of growth. It would appear that the lesson here is that waiting is a fool’s game. By the end of July, you should have already begun to acquire any foils you’re seeking. It may be burdensome attempting to trying to cover the cost of several large ticket foils early on, but you’re likely to save yourself money in the long run being proactive here.

Specul8’n

I’m not going to pick out exactly what cards you want to spec on quite yet. I’d like another few weeks of price data before we begin honing in on specific targets, and with some time before non-foils settle down, we can make informed decisions. As we just discussed, the floor on non-foils tends to land in mid-fall. If you really feel compelled to start jumping on the EMA train today though, I’d look for uncommon foils like Hydroblast or Pyroblast, or inexpensive rare foils. While there’s a lot of attention and excitement around big ticket cards, these small foil items may experience dramatic roller coasters over the next few weeks, especially without reliable price data. Use your best judgment while seeking deals and you may manage to get your hands on some foil uncommons for what ends up being below buylist.

One quick aside for today: have any of you checked out the price on the original San Diego Comic-Con Planeswalker sets? They’re now selling – actually selling – for $600. Holey moley. A lot of people grabbed them in the $200 to $300 range when they were released, which means big profits for anyone that scored some. I swear I remember seeing someone that grabbed like 45 or some such nonsense…

Jim Casale

Grinder Finance – Eternal Masters part 2 : The Masters Quandry

May 30, 2016 Jim Casale 11 Comments

Ladies and Gentlemen, let’s welcome the Eternal Masters class of 2016. Otherwise known as the 21 cards currently pre-ordering for at least the cost of an Eternal Masters booster pack (at MSRP). That’s right guys, of the 53 rares and 15 mythics, only 10 rares and 11 mythics are worth at least the cost of a pack. But how does this compare to a normal set? Currently (at retail prices) there are 24 cards in Shadows over Innistrad worth at least the cost of a booster (which for this exercise I assume is $3). Shadows over Innistrad is a little weird with it’s flip cards but the number of break even cards is roughly the same. What’s the problem then? Finding Eternal Masters boosters at MSRP. It is suggested, after all.

The Masters Quandry

Unfortunately (or fortunately, depending on how you look at it) Wizards of the Coast, a Hasbro subsidiary, can’t reprint expensive cards into oblivion. It gets brought up often, but, Wizards of the Coast, a non-Hasbro subsidiary, did that exactly once. Chronicles was a big problem and they are slowly trying to creep toward a middle ground. This set will be a lot like Modern Masters and kill the price of a few casual cards but otherwise not make a dent in the prices of decks it is supposed to help.

The other issue with Masters sets is the need to “hold things back” for future Masters sets. Modern Masters 2015 was generally perceived as underwhelming by the majority of people although it was more widely available at MSRP. Without another round of reprints from the first set it was difficult to find enough new cards to print. At some point, if they find it too difficult to reduce the over lap in Masters sets we might just get full set reprints (ie Modern Masters released in 2019).

These issues all culminate into a rather complex question: “How do we satisfy everyone?” I’m not sure there is an answer.

The Future of Eternal Masters

Well some of these cards will likely fluctuate up and down but there are some I am sure will see a sharp decline going into the end of the year.

All three of these cards made their debut in Planechase 2012. Coincidentally, Planechase Anthology has already been announced to be including the Planechase 2012 decks and all of the planes. Baleful Strix has already been reprinted in one supplementary product so it’s already not very expensive but Shardless Agent and Maelstrom Wanderer will likely quickly fall from their $10 pre-order price. In fact, they may already be lower than $10 by the time this article is out.

Commander

The great Commander resource website, EDHrec.com, was able to get me some data about the playability of Eternal Masters cards. Here is a dump of the frequency of cards from Eternal Masters in the decklists they parse. Unsurprisingly, Swords to Plowshares, Counterspell, and Sensei’s Divining Top are 3 of the most played cards in their study. They’re all extremely flexible, cheap, and powerful. I woudn’t be worried about the prices of any of those changing much (although foils might get a little cheaper with more copies). The biggest loser I can see on this list is Regal Force. I expect this card’s price to take a bath similar to Adarkar Valkyrie. Once a nearly $10 card based mostly on rarity the tiny print run has brought Adarkar Valkyrie into basically bulk rare territory.

Commander players tend to be more casual and even though you don’t need to pay for the cards you put on your decklists online, many people leave out prohibitively expensive cards in large numbers. As a result I believe that we will not see much of a dip in the price of Mana Crypt. It’s functionally very similar to Sol Ring (the most popular card in Commander – beating the next card, Command Tower, by about 30%) so the appeal to own a copy or five for your Commander decks is pretty high. As a result, if the price drops any significant amount it will cross a lot of player’s thresholds into “purchasable.” Mana Crypt started pre-order pricing on StarCity Games for $50. As of this writing, it’s sold out at $90 which is just $30 less than the original printing. The original printing is also sold out so it’s unlikely the demand for these can be satisfied this time. I’m expecting Mana Crypt to follow Tarmogoyf as the chase mythic in all Eternal Masters sets.

Foils

Is it a little misleading that I’ve intentionally ignored the foil slot in calculating cards you can open in a booster pack to pay for it? Maybe a little. However, as of this writing, no stores have posted pre-order prices for foils. It’s possible they don’t know the math exactly on how little they plan to open for pre-orders or they just don’t want to be the first one to blink. The first store to set the prices of foils will be planting their flag in the ground and seeing if it sticks. Some of these foils will be uncharted territory and it’s possible they could be leaving a lot of money on the table by being the first to sell out. Let’s do a little recap on first time foils.

Technically first time foils (for completeness sake)

These cards all have original pack printings from Urza’s Saga or earlier. There were no foil cards in those packs yet. It’s unlikely any of these cards will light up any price graphs.

Expensive first time foils

Originally I had separated these into different groups. One group of Commander foils, one group of Pauper foils, one group of Vintage and Legacy foils, one group of Cube foils, etc. But I realized that breaking them down that way implies that there is no overlap and that’s just not true. These first time foils will be worth some order of magnitude more than than their non-foil counter part. Despite being an uncommon, I think Pyroblast foils will likely command the highest price tag on this list.

Missing Link

So as I stated earlier, Wizards of the Coast, a Hasbro subsidiary, needs to hold some of the best cards for the next set. What are the biggest missing cards from this set? Well one obvious one is damna…

As many people have already become well aware, Rishadan Port was left off the reprint list this time. I don’t often talk about Magic Online but this miss hurts MTGO the most. Rishadan Port was creeping down to about 150 tickets (1 ticket is about $1) while people feared a reprint but immediately shot up 50 tickets once it was announced to not be in the set. There is some incentive not to reprint Port again so quickly after it was just announced as a Judge foil but this one stings. Rishadan Port is part of one of the few Legacy decks that doesn’t use any reserve list cards (Death and Taxes). This card was likely selected to be held back for another Eternal Masters set in 2 years.

Umezawa’s Jitte is one of the best equipment ever printed and one of the few cards from Betrayer’s of Kamigawa worth talking about. This card is not quite as pricey as a lot of things included in Eternal Masters but it’s a really hard card to reprint in a draftable set. Jitte is frequently seen as a one-man army type card that would almost assuredly be a mythic these days. Every time we get a set that can reprint Jitte and is evades another printing there is a possibility the price goes up. Umezawa’s Jitte has a GP Promo version but this was before full year promos. As a result only 6 months of Umezawa’s Jitte promos means there are not that many to go around. It’s only saving grace is you don’t often want more than one of this legendary equipment in your Legacy deck.

Flusterstorm is a card that was “printed” many times online but only twice in paper. Currently your choices for Flusterstorms in paper are the original Commander printing or judge foils. At a minimum of almost $60, it’s fair to say Flusterstorm should be on Wizard’s radar for a reprint. It’s possible that it still is on track to get reprinted this year. Conspiracy: Take the Crown is going to be released in two short months and could include some Legacy and Vintage reprints with multiplayer applicability. Flusterstorm’s Storm ability plays nicely with a 4 player game (as it was originally intended as a Commander counter spell). I’m not saying it’s likely, but its possible we get Flusterstorm in Conspiracy: Take the Crown.

Show and Tell is a wonderful card. It’s wonderfully pricey and part of two Legacy decks that don’t lean heavily on the reserve list (Sneak and Show and Reanimator). It’s also the card that I am most surprised is missing. If there is anything they could leave out of Eternal Masters to be in Conspiracy: Take the Crown it’s Show and Tell. That card is easy to put into a draft set because you can control the worst thing put into play. It also plays pretty nicely with a multiplayer game. I just hope if it get’s reprinted they use the Urza’s Saga art. Nothing against Zack Stella, but this one is so much cuter.

These last two are not terribly expensive, yet. I would have expected them to get a reprint to help ease the price while it’s not high. Wizards has shown reluctance to reprint very expensive cards close to their original rarity especially if they can be detrimental to a draft format. I’m guessing when we see a Lotus Petal reprint it won’t be at common.

Some cards are notably missing from Eternal Masters but I would never expect them to print in an Eternal set. Aether Vial, Chalice of the Void, Damnation, and Snapcaster Mage are all Modern cards first and foremost. If we get those in a Masters set, it will be Modern Masters not Eternal Masters. I know every set goes by and people wonder if we’ll ever get Damnation again. I’m sure it will come eventually and it will be in a Modern Masters set.

Back to your regularly scheduled programming

We just got the full spoiler for Eternal Masters and we’re about to hit the ground running with Eldritch Moon spoilers. Generally for Standard sets, spoilers last for two weeks and end the week before the pre-release. Based on this, Eldritch Moon spoilers should start in about 3 weeks, on June 27th. Eternal Masters will have been released for 17 days before spoilers for the next set start. I’m expecting some Magic fatigue in the worst kind of way.

Have you been paying attention to the card prices for Shadows over Innistrad? They’re reaching near time lows. When the spoilers start for Eldritch Moon people will begin to buy more as they get re-excited for Standard. If you’ve been waiting for some prices to go down before they rise again you’re nearing the best times until the late summer.

Sigmund Ausfresser

PROTRADER: Price Trajectory for Key EMA Reprints

May 29, 2016 Sigmund Ausfresser 8 Comments

The full spoiler for Eternal Masters is out and the moment of truth is upon us. There’s one thing and one thing only on my mind regarding this set: how will it impact prices? Whether or not this is a balanced set, a good draft format, good EV, or fun to play is irrelevant to me. As an MTG finance person first and player second, my natural response to the set is one of financial analysis.

There are two analyses that can be conducted now that the full set is spoiled: an intra-set analysis and an extra-set analysis. That is, what will cards in the set do price-wise and what will cards outside the set do price-wise. These are two very different perspectives that each merit their own dedicated column. This week I’m going to focus on the intra-set analysis.

Basis for Prediction

Before I begin assessing individual cards, first I want to briefly summarize my approach. First and foremost I need to assume a print run – given the lack of Grand Prix to celebrate the release of Eternal Masters, I don’t believe the print run will be as large as Modern Masters 2015. But based on the fact that prices didn’t tank after MMA and MM2015, I speculate that Wizards of the Coast would want to err on printing more packs than less simply because it will generate more sales. Therefore, I’m going to assume a print run of MM2015 and use MM2015 pricing to predict magnitude of price change. If nothing else, the MM2015 assumption will allow for a “worst case” prediction.

Next, I’m going to leverage MM2015 reprints as a way to predict the direction of EMA prices. The closer a parallel exists, the easier it will be to predict price movement. A card’s utility in different formats will most certainly carry heavy weight in this comparison. A strictly casual card must be compared with another strictly casual card in as many cases as possible. This is especially true when considering the ubiquity of a card in a respective format as well as the quantity of copies played in decks that use said card. All of this will become clear once I begin my analysis so rather than dribble on here, let’s jump in!

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