Grinder Finance – The Shadows over Innistrad Preorder Article

Hey guys, I’m a little this late this week as I was waiting for the maximum number of cards to be spoiled before putting out this article.  Spoilers for Shadows over Innistrad will end Friday so it is unlikely much will change between then and now.

With every set, the pre-order prices for most cards are astronomically higher than they end up.  There are some exceptions to that rule (I’m looking at you Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy) but the best bet is usually to buy the least amount possible.

Lands

porttown

I’m sure by now you’ve all seen the rare land cycle.  I think the pre-order prices for these are a little too high to recommend buying them all but I couldn’t fault you for getting the ones you think you are likely to play for the first month.  These should be $2-3 by this summer and then you can finish up your playsets.

Upgrading Old Strategies

cardart_OGW_World-Breaker

Bought into the Eldrazi ramp deck recently? Here are my recommendations for pre-orders:

deathcapcultivator

Deathcap Cultivator easily slots into the same spot as Rattleclaw Mystic and supports a black splash instead of a red one.  That might be the best going forward anyway since Kozilek’s Return doesn’t kill a lot of the new vampires or many older creatures.

drownyardtemple

Drownyard Temple has a great synergy with World Breaker but I wouldn’t recommend getting a whole play set.  One or two is probably all the deck can support anyway without cutting into Shrine of the Forsaken Gods or Sanctum of Ugin

tirelesstracker.

With the additional ETB tapped lands, I expect ramp will find some mana earlier to use on Tireless Tracker.  It’s obviously a huge favorite to be a huge monster if you play a ton of lands.  It will help with some of the problems of flooding and isn’t legendary like Nissa, Vastwood Seer.  While this card might not be a slam dunk, the pre-order price of $2 or less is not much to lose.

traversetheulvenwald

Stay away from this card.  A lot of people are hypothesizing it’s synergy with Ruin in their Wake but the reality is this will often be much worse than Oath of Nissa.  At $4 most places, I don’t want to buy into what is likely to be a bulk rare.

spirit_awakening_riley2

Collected Company more your jam?  It’s likely that a Green/White based deck will be the bread and butter CoCo deck.  There are unfortunately not a ton of great cards to add to those style decks but there are a few that could make the cut.

declarationinstone

Collected Company decks are almost always light on removal (the nature of a green/white deck).  Declaration in Stone gives you some more flexibility in removing troublesome creatures cleanly and doesn’t require a bigger creature, like Dromoka’s Command does.

Untitled

Naturally, Hanweir Militia Captain’s flip trigger works well in a CoCo deck.  Putting 2 Hanweir Militia Captains into play during your opponent’s end step could spell big game.  This one is purely speculative as the next creature.

bygonebishop

A deck with a ton of 3 or less drop creatures could be in the market for a reasonably costed flyer to draw some cards.  This one unfortunately matches up pretty poorly against Drana, Liberator of Malakir and Olivia, Mobilized for War so we will have to see how the meta game shakes down.  If we see a ton of Eldrazi Skyspawners and Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet (which makes Deathmist Raptor worse) maybe this guy gets the nod.

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For the mono-red Eldrazi deck I only have 1 recommendation.

goldnightcastigator

I know it looks like a pile of garbage but the truth is this will be a very important sideboard card against “slower” decks.  Its great against Ramp and it will probably be great against Esper Dragons (or similarly controlling decks).  The worst case scenario is this is a Skizzik (or Ball Lightning, if you prefer that) that can throw off your opponent’s math.  Most of it’s text box is largely irrelevant if you kill them with it.

New Archtypes:

Some cards look deceptively powerful on paper but don’t realize any competitive play.  For the most part, anything over $15 pre-order price is too high to pay unless you are sure it will be good.  Here’s my shortlist of things I have (or would recommend) pre-ordering.

oliviamobilizedforwar

She’s cheap, she’s got reasonable stats, and she turns every spell you play for the rest of the game into an insane return.  Olivia’s ability to curb your flooding while still putting pressure means it won’t be hard for her to find a home.  I’m fine with pre-ordering these up to $15 if you are going to play them.

Archangel Avacyn / Avacyn, the Purifier

This is the best Serra Angel ever printed.  Glowing endorsement, right?  Well if you played with Restoration Angel during the first Innistrad block, you would know how powerful large flash flyers are.  Avacyn is really big, at a great rate, and doesn’t need much help to be effective.  She is largely immune to Reflector Mage.  Combined with Ojutai’s Command, Avacyn delivers the same lose/lose situation as Cryptic Command and Mistbind Clique did.  This is a card I’m not worried that we won’t find a deck for.

So Arlinn is definitely very good on paper.  Probably the best planeswalker in the set.  But I don’t think she will find a home.  Be on the lookout for when she drops.  I can’t imagine she stays anywhere over $20 in a month.

Traps

Don’t buy these cards.  They’re too hyped and probably won’t be good enough to maintain their price tag for more than a month.

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Jacesoringrimnemesissinproddernahiritheharbinger

All of the Planeswalkers have the Planeswalker tax.  Anguished Unmaking is fine but it’s also the Game Day promo and I’m not sure it can be played as a 4-of like Hero’s Downfall. Sin Prodder is a glorified Boggart Brute.  It’s “fine” but on average it will draw you less cards than Abbot of Keral Keep.  Thing in the Ice is purely an eternal card and as such will drop like a rock.  It’s unlikely to see too much play in a Standard format that has Ultimate Price, Grasp of Darkness, Silk Wrap, and Reflector Mage.

PROTRADER: PucaTrade and Misfolded $100 Bills

By: Travis Allen
@wizardbumpin


Don’t miss this week’s installment of MTG Fast Finance! An on-topic, no-nonsense tour through the week’s most important Magic economy changes.


If you’ve been listening to MTG Fast Finance, you’ll know that I’ve been talking up foil Wastes. Collector’s number 184 specifically, because that bismuth art is leagues better than the “dusty cloud” of #183. Copies are hanging around at about $14 today, and have been creeping up since release. I check the cheapest copies on TCG each morning, and I don’t think I’ve seen the price drop once in the past three weeks. Anyone with a soap box pegged foil Wastes as soon as the leak hit Twitter so many months ago, and it’s looking like we all had the right idea.

Of course, the best way to make a good spec even better is to pay below-market rates. That’s extremely useful advice, right? “Instead of paying retail, pay below retail. Thanks Travis!” Boy you guys are really getting your money’s worth. Well, I found a place to pay below retail. Chances are you have an account there already.

At $.68 per 100 points, and 1599 point foil Wastes, I’m picking them up at $10.80 (shipped!) each. It’s not like I’m getting them at half price, but hey, it’s $2 or $3 off. Hard to argue with that.

The rest of this content is only visible to ProTrader members.

To learn how ProTrader can benefit YOU, click here to watch our short video.

expensive cards

ProTrader: Magic doesn’t have to be expensive.

PROTRADER: Embracing Profits

“No one ever went bankrupt selling stocks for a profit.”

I don’t know who initially penned this insightful phrase, but I look back to this mindset time and again. Now is no exception – if you truly hope to minimize the cost of playing Magic, you’ll have to learn how to sell cards when you’re profitable. We all have cards that we’ve developed an emotional attachment to, and that’s not a problem. But keeping that subset of cards as minimal as possible will enable you to react unemotionally and profitably when opportunity arises.

And believe me – opportunity arises a lot.

This week I want to look at a handful of cards as case studies to identify appropriate strategies for buying, holding, and selling depending on where the card is on its price trajectory. This mindset should apply across all formats from Old School and Legacy to Standard. In fact only Vintage staples, playable Legacy Reserved List cards (think duals), and iconic cards really buck this trend by rising nonstop. But even these cards experience sporadic spikes that could yield healthy profits. Short of Power or the truly collectible, nothing is fully immune.

The Full Cycle

We’ve all seen it before. A card makes itself known and jumps onto everyone’s radar in a couple different ways. Twitter buzz, a forum post, a successful performance on camera, the spoiling of a new card, a rise in a format’s popularity, etc. These are all viable ways that could catalyze a price spike. Consider for example a card that has recently completed a full rise and fall cycle: Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker.

Kiki

Throughout the winter this card had bottomed. The savviest would have been picking up this legendary creature around Christmas time. Unfortunately I didn’t have that foresight. I did manage to make a couple bucks on this card, however, when the news came out that Splinter Twin was banned in Modern. The ensuing hype for Kiki-Jiki was palpable, and I could see quantities on TCG Player drop before my very eyes.

Of course, we all know how this story played out. Eldrazi took over the Modern metagame and Kiki-Jiki is virtually unplayable in the current meta. As a result, the price on Kiki-Jiki has pulled back well off its highs, with buy lists quickly following. At this point anyone still holding copies really can’t make much on them after fees and shipping. Selling at that peak for profit was, in hindsight, the optimal play.

This trend happens time and again in MTG Finance. In some ways, profit is possible regardless of the catalyst for movement.

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To learn how ProTrader can benefit YOU, click here to watch our short video.

expensive cards

ProTrader: Magic doesn’t have to be expensive.

MTG Fast Finance Episode 9

by Travis Allen (@wizardbumpin) & James Chillcott (@mtgcritic)

MTG Fast Finance is a weekly podcast that tries to break down the flurry of financial activity in the world of Magic: The Gathering into a fast, fun and useful thirty minute format. Follow along with our seasoned hosts as they walk you through this week’s big price movements, their picks of the week, metagame analysis and a rotating weekly topic.

Show Notes: March 19th

Segment 1: Top Movers of the Week

Legion Loyalist Foil (Gatecrash)
Start: $9.00
Finish: $18.00
Gain: +$9.00 (+100%)

Asceticism Foil (Scars of Mirrodin)
Start: $11.00
Finish: $24.00
Gain: +$13.00 (+118%)

Drana, Liberator of Malakir (Battle for Zendikar)
Start: $8.00
Finish: $18.00
Gain: +$10.00 (+125%)

Mayor of Avabruck (Foil) (Innistrad)
Start: $5.00
Finish: $12.00
Gain: +$7.00 (+140%)

Triskelion (Antiquities)
Start: $19.00
Finish: $45.00
Gain: +$26.00 (+136%)

Whirling Dervish (Legends)
Start: $2.25
Finish: $5.50
Gain: +$3.25 (+144%)

Hall of Gemstone (Mirage)
Start: $1.25
Finish: $5.00
Gain: +$3.75 (+300%)

Scout’s Warning (Future Sight)
Start: $1.00
Finish: $5.00
Gain: +$4.00 (+400%)

Segment 2: Cards to Watch

James Picks:

  1. Diregraf Colossus Shadows Over Innistrad, Confidence Level 7: $1 to $5 (+400%, 6-12 months)
  2. Traverse the Ulvenwald Shadows Over Innistrad, Confidence Level 7: $1 to $5+ (+400%, 6-12 months)
  3. Myr Superion Foil Scars of Mirrodin, Confidence Level 6: $3 to $10+ (+235%, 6-12+ months)

Travis Picks:

  1. Beck//Call, Dragon’s Maze, Confidence Level 6: $.40 to $5 (+1100%, 6-12+ months
  2. Needle Spires & Hissing Quagmire Oath of the Gatewatch, Confidence Level 7: $1 to $5+ (+400%, 0-6 months)
  3. Wastes #184 Foil Oath of the Gatewatch, Confidence Level 9: $13 to $25+ (+100%, 12+ months)

Disclosure: Travis and James may own speculative copies of the above cards.

Segment 3: Shadows Over Innistrad Spoilers

Official spoilers for Shadows Over Innistrad are upon us! The guys take time to talk about some of the cards that have caught their eye through the lens of financial implications, both on yet-to-be released cards, and cards that are already in the market.

 

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

MAGIC: THE GATHERING FINANCE ARTICLES AND COMMUNITY