From M10 to M15 (or possibly Maqic Origins, depending on your point of view), Magic experimented with a yearly core set. Before this model, core sets were printed once every two years, had ugly white borders, and consisted entirely of reprints. All this changed with M10, when Wizards stated that: 1) Core sets would be printed every year, 2) Would feature the beautiful black borders we have grown to love, and 3) Would be about half reprints, half new cards.
These years of core sets led to an interesting finance landscape. Since these sets were filled with reprints, cards like Scavenging Oozeand Mutavaultwere printed, crashing their values in the process. On the other hand, since these sets didn’t sell particularly well, newly printed cards tended to be expensive, like Thundermaw Hellkiteand Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy.
So in the spirit of the block reviews I’ve written in the past few months, let’s go through some of (not all—we’d be here all day) the financially relevant cards from these years of core sets. As always, I’m coming at this from the standpoint of someone who wants the best cube possible for the least money possible, but who is always happy to buy in to a card if it seems poised for an increase. Given this bias, I might not be touching on every card pertinent to your format of choice, but there’s enough overlap that I trust there will be something for everyone.
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Last week I talked about what to look forward to for the future of Standard. Today I’m going to take a look at what to sell (or really, what to look forward to in Modern). Just to remind everyone, there are two sets rotating out when Shadows over Innistrad is released April 8th.
A lot of people get confused because it’s 2 sets in 1 set out and we’re in the last 3 set block. In April, Khans of Tarkir and Fate Reforged will rotate out but notDragons of Tarkir and Magic Origins. Consequently people pondering whether they should get out of KTK and FRF cards will be unpleasantly disappointed.
As I’ve echoed many times, Standard legal cards will enter their final plummet right after the Pro Tour approximately 6 months before they rotate. Most of these cards have already bottomed out and selling them at this point will not be a winning proposition if you plan to buy them back. This doesn’t probably apply to card like Anafenza, the Foremost and Siege Rhino for most people. It does apply to the best lands ever printed. The allied colored fetch lands have a significant price tag attached to them while very close to rotation.
Many players think they can sell them now an pick them up in a few months after prices have dropped. I’m pretty sure that won’t happen. The best time to pick them up will be between now and the end of May.
They’re the best lands ever printed
While they may not have the same price tag as Scalding Tarn or Misty Rainforest, the fetch lands are the best lands that Wizards of the Coast has ever printed in any format. With only half of them and half of a set of fetchable dual lands, they have created one of the most powerful mana bases in Standard. It’s really hard to knock cards that get played along Black Lotus in Vintage, right? What it boils down to is that there will likely never be lands better than this and as players become more enfranchised they will need to own them.
There is not enough time before you need them again
Many players may not play Modern right now due to the extensive Eldrazi threat but they will soon after Khans of Tarkir rotates. Modern PPTQ season starts July 10th and ends October 6th. This coincides with the release of Eldritch Moon until the unnamed fall set. 3 months is not a long enough time for those cards to truly see any appreciable price declines. We saw price increases in the summer months for Modern cards because of the drive to compete in these abundant local events. If there are any sizable reprints in Eternal Masters (which comes out the month before Eldritch Moon) there could be some panic purchasing of Khans of Tarkir fetches to play in PPTQs the next month. It’s possible we even see the Khans fetches increase in price if there is an announcement of no enemy colored (Zendikar) fetches in Eternal Masters.
Their Modern play is suppressed
The Eldrazi have brought back pain lands from the dead and quietly pushed most of the fetches to the sidelines. I have a feeling once Eldrazi are not the best deck in the room we will see a bit more demand for fetches. Many of those players may already own them but once Modern becomes less Eldrazi dominated we will see a resurgence of decks that play 8 to 12 fetch lands. That being said, we don’t really have good data for the post Splinter Twin ban Modern. Currently 9 of the top 10 creatures played are Eldrazi and the only one that isn’t is Spellskite.
Final Verdict: Buy or Hold
Single Card Analysis
Monastery Swiftspear by Steve Argyle
The Monastery Swiftspear is one of the most expensive cards in Khans of Tarkir. Despite being an uncommon, it out performs many of the rares in the set. If you play it in Standard, you will probably eventually want to play it in Modern or Legacy so I’m going to advise you just hang onto your copies. Despite having only ever-green keywords, it will be hard to find a place to reprint it in a Standard legal set due to it’s name. This card will likely see long term gains similar to other lower rarity burn staples (Lava Spike, Rift Bolt, Boros Charm, etc). It not being a common keeps it out of Pauper but that’s unlikely to affect it too much. I think this is going to be a solid $5-8 card in 3-4 years.
Final Verdict: Hold
Ugin, the Spirit Dragon by Raymond Swanland
Ugin, the Spirit Dragon is played in Modern, EDH, and casual circles everywhere. A one-time printing (the supply is so low on the promo it doesn’t really make a dent), Ugin is poised to have tremendous long term growth. He is a lot like Nicol Bolas, Planeswalker in casual appeal but his completely colorless casting cost makes him easy to play in any deck. You can find him for $28 on TCGplayer and he still has a buylist of $20 so at this point I’m not sure it’s worth selling. His historic low was $25 during June of 2015 when he saw almost no competitive play. At this point I’m fine hanging onto them for a few years for him to climb back up. If you’re on the fence, I wouldn’t sell foils or promos unless you needed the money as those have barely budged as the non-foil climbed. The Commander demand for this card drives those prices.
Final Verdict: Hold
Monastery Mentor by Magali Villeneuve
Monastery Mentor, like Monastery Swiftspear has a name that makes it a little harder to reprint. The fact that Prowess is a tertiary keyword (source) in white means it will have less opportunity to be reprinted. This card shows up in Legacy and Vintage decks so I feel like it would have already made the jump into Modern if it was a good fit. At $15 I don’t feel like there is a particularly compelling reason to keep them if you don’t already play them. There is definitely an issue with the prevalence of creature removal in Modern that could keep this 2/2 out of the spotlight for a long time.
Final Verdict: Sell
Tasigur, the Golden Fang by Chris Rahn
Tasigur, the Golden Fang I think is in a slightly different realm than Siege Rhino. His body is a similar size but you can often play him on the cheap with only 1 color. While his legendary status has relegated him to a 1/2 of in most decks, I think he will be a great long term hold because he is a story character with a problematic keyword to reprint. He also technically has a 3 color commander identity making him harder to print in Commander supplementary products. Tasigur has fallen a bit since he was printed in an event deck. I think this is his price floor for the foreseeable future. I also think foils are the better play if you’re picking him up to hold long term.
Final Verdict: Buy
Everything else I’m going to lump into a “probably unplayable in Modern” so you’re probably fine just selling them. Granted, while the best time was 6 months ago, it’s better late than never. I think this is an important time for players to suck it up and take their pennies on the dollar for cards they won’t play. Otherwise you end up like me with a pile of Sylvan Caryatids and Courser of Kruphix and wonder where it all went wrong.
A recent discussion about the stock market with a friend last week catalyzed some relevant MTG finance thoughts to flow through my mind. The friend asked me about a stock that he regretted not purchasing, after watching the ensuing outperformance of the equity. He was disgruntled for not trusting his own instincts. I tried my best to alleviate his distress by pointing out how a missed opportunity to profit is certainly not the same as an incurred loss.
Shortly after our chat I was faced with a paralleled emotion in the world of Magic, and I almost made the same reckless mistake I cautioned my friend to avoid on Wall Street. The card that triggered this reaction of mine is Scout’s Warning. Ever heard of it? Don’t worry if you haven’t – I never had either until someone mentioned it to me.
Apparently the scout assigned to alert me to random buy-outs was not on duty last week because I received no warning about the card’s movement. TCG Player sold out completely, and I could find only a few lingering copies on the oft-forgotten website Cardshark.com. In reaction to the movement, I scrambled to add about a dozen copies of the card to my shopping cart. But before I clicked “Complete Purchase” I hesitated just a moment.
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What is the best deck for a person ultimately more concerned with Magic Finance?
Red Deck Wins.
See you next week!
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…What, you’re still here? Okaaaay, we’ll actually do this. Geez, y’all are a pushy bunch.
All joking aside, there are two major points that I want to touch on today, and they are both important subjects that have not been covered much, if at all, recently. The first is going to be the shorter, more game-play based topic of playing the right type of deck, while the second is going to try and figure out HOW to buy in to future Standards. The latter may sound silly at first, but recognize that we are still treading into unknown territory with regards to the new rotation schedule, and if you haven’t been around since Khans, where do you start? Figuring out how to get new or lapsed players in (or back in) to the tournament scene is a great way to grow your market, as well as anticipate future trends.
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