PROTRADER: Keep, Crack, or Ship: Modern Masters

By: Travis Allen
@wizardbumpin


This week on @mtgfastfinance, James and I got a chance to speak with Andrew Brown, a member of Team East West Bowl and co-creator of the UR Eldrazi deck that won Pro Tour Oath of the Gatewatch. For insight on what he would change and what beats the deck, as well as our regular discussion about recent price changes and our cards to watch, make sure to check out episode four. Thanks for listening!

Click here to listen to episode four!


If you follow my buddies James Chillcott (@mtgcritic) or Jeremy Aaranson (@xemitsellsmagic) on Twitter, you may have caught their incessant tweeting about all the various Modern Masters packs they’ve been opening lately. While I was mostly aggrieved that they got to crack sweet packs and fill up my timeline with it while I did nothing of the sort, it wasn’t all for nought. It got me thinking about sealed boxes of the original Modern Masters.

We’re now nearly three years past the printing of Modern Masters, which hit store shelves on June 7th, 2013. That’s an anniversary four months from now. Reprints grow more likely by the day, which could slash prices on key cards for a period of time. Most of the cards in this set are durable and enduring, such as Arcbound Ravager, but each reprint tacks on months or years before it climbs back to its original price point. Repeated key reprints could keep the value of a box suppressed for over five years if you were unlucky. Add to that that the rumor mill is churning about the appearance of an Eternal Masters set, (something which I remain quite suspicious of), and you can see why the threat of reprints is getting scary. Well it turns out Eternal Masters is real. We know there’s going to be some Modern reprints, we just don’t which yet.

 

Yet, working against that is the immutable law of nature that useful and desired Magic cards slowly (and sometimes not so slowly) rise in price without other forces acting upon them. While tournament cards are often subjected to more tempermental swings, casual fodder picks up percentage point after percentage point as they age. Sealed product especially so should benefit from this, as there is value in the package as a draft experience and giant lottery ticket. If you show someone a stack of Modern Masters cards worth $300, and then point to a sealed box of Modern Masters and guarantee someone that the exact same cards are inside, they’ll opt to take the sealed box every single time. Ten years from now you’ll be able to buy all the Modern Masters singles your heart desires, possibly for a good bit cheaper than they are today, but sealed boxes should still hold more value as a collector’s item and draft product.

Here’s the question I find myself with. I’ve got five boxes hanging around and I’m questioning what to do with them. I have three options.

Option #1: Keep Them

This is the default and “doing nothing is better than doing something” plan. Leave them stashed in a closet, continuing to (hopefully) appreciate.

Option #2: Ship Them

Leave the boxes factory sealed and sell them. If I think that prices are likely to decrease over the next year or two, this is a plan. Furthermore, selling sealed product rather than cracking it and selling singles is typically ideal.

Option #3: Crack Them

Undoubtedly the most fun choice, in this scenario I crack all the packs and sell the singles. It’s an unorthodox strategy, but possibly the most lucrative.

Keep ‘Em

Alright, we’ve got three options. Our goal is to figure out the best one. I’m going to begin by trying to figure out if selling it is even correct at all, then we’ll assume it’s time to sell (whether it is or not) and see how those two scenarios may play out.

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expensive cards

ProTrader: Magic doesn’t have to be expensive.

PROTRADER: A Cheapskate Casual’s Guide to Return to Ravnica Block

I performed a similar breakdown to what you are about to read here, but for Battle for Zendikar, Khans of Tarkir, and Theros blocks. I ended that article with the idea that I would cover more blocks the following week, but as it turned out, there were other things to discuss, so this article has been delayed.

But no more! Let’s tackle the entirety of Return to Ravnica block today. Remember, I’m approaching this from the standpoint of a cube owner looking to make the sweetest cube possible but at the lowest possible price. We’ll be going through most cards that are both financially relevant and Cube-playable, though playability in other formats, possibility to make money, likelihood of impending reprints, and and all other relevant factors will be mentioned, as well.

Enough intro. Let’s get to the cards.

Return to Ravnica

Abrupt Decay

A fairly juicy one to start. This is basically a must-include in the Golgari section of most cubes, and with the recent WMC promo revealed, the card has taken a hit of about a third of its all-time high of $20. Remember, though, that WMC promos won’t flood the market in the same way as a printing in an expansion, supplementary product, or preconstructed deck. Barring a reprint that actually puts a large number of cards on the market, Abrupt Decay really seems to have nowhere to go but up. If you don’t have all the copies you need, I’d prioritize picking them up over the next few months.

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expensive cards

ProTrader: Magic doesn’t have to be expensive.

Angel of Serenity

After briefly hitting $25 shortly after its printing in Standard, this plummeted, and then the final kill shot was applied when it was reprinted in Commander 2015. With a Fair Trade Price of $1.62 as of this writing, I can’t imagine a world in which this nutso reanimator target is ever goes lower. And while I’m certainly not expecting a sudden or pronounced spike,if this can avoid another reprint, I think this is a great target for slow, steady, long-term growth.

Ash Zealot

You don’t see this in a ton of cubes these days, which I think is a shame. It’s a solid beater in RDW with a sometimes-relevant graveyard hate clause. A decent beater with a decent hate clause is pretty good, in my opinion. It’s basically bulk, so there’s no reason not to own as many copies as you want.

Blood Crypt

This might be wishful thinking on my part, but I feel like the shock lands can’t possibly go spike-free for much longer. It’s been more than three years since their reprint, Modern gets more popular by the minute, and the playerbase has grown since Return to Ravnica. You probably have all the shock lands you need by this point, but if not, don’t take their sub-$10 prices for granted.

Chromatic Lantern

An EDH staple, yes, but I don’t run this in my cube. In general, three-mana  ramp spells in Cube need to provide two mana (think Worn Powerstone or Coalition Relic). So don’t feel like you need a copy for your list. If you really want one, this will keep going up until it’s reprinted, which is likely to happen eventually.

Cyclonic Rift

Similarly, this one is up to $8 (!!!), and will likely continue to go up until it is reprinted. This is one that I actually like in Cube, so if you need a copy, but it right away or resign yourself to waiting for the next reprint (or EDH banning).

Deathrite Shaman

With Legacy on the downswing and this banned in Modern, it seems like a fine time to pick these up. With a Fair Trade Price of $6.73, the card is at an all-time low. I must admit, though, that given how little play the card is seeing, I’m surprised it’s not below $5. I don’t see what would facilitate a price spike here other than a Modern unbanning or a major increase in Legacy events, both of which seem unlikely. You’re probably fine to wait on this one for these reasons, but again: all-time low.

Desecration Demon

Price memory based on this card’s Standard glory days are keeping this above $1, but there’s not really much we can do about that. I suspect only a reprint or ten years of better creatures get this below this price point.

Detention Sphere

This is less than $1, which is probably because singleton formats don’t really think this is much better than Oblivion Ring. It does kill multiple tokens and clones, though, so it is a little better. I cut this from my cube recently, as it was on the bubble and I have lots of this style of effect. Still, if you want a copy, you can’t do better than this price.

Dreadbore

This has a Fair Trade Price of $2.49, which is silly given that Hero’s Downfall is $1.67, but probably has more to do with age than anything. The price isn’t going down without a reprint, and the card is certainly one of the better choices for your Rakdos section, so buy ’em if you want ’em.

Jace, Architect of Thought

At $3.47 for a planeswalker that sees occasional Modern play, this is one of the better buys in Magic, in my opinion. An eventual double-up seems inevitable, if not better.

Lotleth Troll

This is the kind of card that could be the engine for a combo deck down the line. At less than $1, I don’t want to discount that. It’s definitely a bubble card in Cube, switching in and out of Golgari as needed. It’s a decent engine for GB reanimator, if you’re trying to support that archetype.

Loxodon Smiter

This has gone from $1 to $2 in the last year. It could certainly be playable in Modern in the right metagame and deck, so it’s worth keeping an eye on. Selesnya is really deep in Cube, so while the power level is here on this one, the space often isn’t. Still, that on-deck copy might be worth picking up before this becomes a $5 card.

Mizzium Mortars

For how good this was in Limited and even Standard, it’s kind of iffy in Cube. I see it in most lists, but not being able to go to the face really hurts eats utility in RDW-style decks. Red control, rare as it may be, loves this card, though, so it’s well worth including if you’re trying to keep red from being an aggro-only kind of color. A Commander 2015 reprint pushed this down to essentially bulk status, so now is a fine time to pick up any copies you may want.

Pack Rat

See what I said about Desecration Demon (with the added factor of a contingent of casual players who love rats).

Rakdos's Return

I don’t play this in my cube, but it’s like $1.14. For a mythic with an effect this powerful, I figured it was worth mentioning.

Sphinx's Revelation

This has been a pretty solid $6 since it rotated. Barring a reprint or a marked increase in Modern play, I see no reason why it won’t stay there for at least a couple years.

Supreme Verdict

The card’s price chart is showing a slow-but-steady increase, and it’s almost up to $5. That was close to its ceiling while in Standard, so I’m not particularly worried about this spiking any time soon. Still, at its current rate, it will be $6 before too long, so don’t wait if you need a copy.

Underworld Connections

It’s no Phyrexian Arena, but it’s still playable if you want to push the control aspect of black in your list. With three printings and the existence of Arena,you should be able to pick this card up at bulk pricing for some time to come.

Vraska the Unseen

Vraska kind of sucks, but she is also kind of okay as a five-mana Vindicate that gains you some life. The card recently went from $3.50 to $7, which blows my mind, because I think of it as a card that sucks. I was all about to tell you to buy copies for $3.50, but then I saw it was $7 and now I think you should not buy copies. This is a bad planeswalker from a highly opened, extremely popular set, with a Duel Deck printing to boot. For every one of these you would have bought, go buy two Jace, Architect of Thoughts instead.

Gatecrash

Assemble the Legion

I could have sworn this was in this year’s Boros Commander deck, but I guess not. I think this is better in EDH than in Cube, but at a Fair Trade Price of 87 cents with only one printing, I could see this being a target for growth. I expect slow growth, to be sure, with a pretty high reprint risk and a low ceiling, so get these as throw-ins, not as primary targets.

Boros Reckoner

More price memory nonsense, as this is currently almost $3. Then again, uncommon Spitemare is 83 cents, so maybe this is something casual players like. In any case, it’s been pretty steady at $3 for nearly two years, so if you want a copy, this is a perfectly reasonable price point.

Breeding Pool

Gatecrash was significantly less popular than Return to Ravnica, so the shock lands in this set are likely in shorter supply than their RTR counterparts. Buy accordingly.

Domri Rade

Planeswalkers are super safe to buy in general, and Domri is no exception at a Fair Trade Price of $7.80. I miss the days when this was just barely released,  when Modern players were going turn-three Domri into turn-four Phyrexian Obliterator.  Why did that stop, anyway?

Nightveil Specter

This card is really good on its own, but if you are playing black and/or blue devotion cards in your cube, it’s a must-add. It has the same price memory effect from Standard Mono-Black Devotion as Pack Rat and Desecration Demon, but it’s only $1.21 and is a fine buy at that price, even if it slightly inflated.

Thespian's Stage

This card slowly but surely has worked its way from $1 to $2.50. It will continue growing in this slow, incremental fashion as long as it can avoid a reprint. It’s really only playable in Cube in conjunction with Dark Depths, but the new colorless symbol gives it some new, additional utility.

Dragon’s Maze

Ætherling

As far as control finisher go, this is right at the top of the list. And it’s only 39 cents?! I don’t think this is going up, but I’m surprised price memory doesn’t have it over $1.

Beck // Call

This isn’t a Cube card by any means. I just wanted to mention it because Glimpse of Nature is more than $20 and this is a bulk rare. Could somebody break this, please?

Ral Zarek

Ral was like Domri in that his price was pretty solid for a couple years, but he’s starting to see some upward movement. He’s in a prominent color combo, is prominent among Vorthos types, and is from one of the least-opened sets in recent memory, so it’s not surprising to see a bit of upward movement. He also does some sneakily combolicious things with his first ability. I don’t see how a reprint could happen at this point, so if you need a copy, you probably shouldn’t put it off.

Voice of Resurgence

Whoa, this is $46 now. That is news to me. The luxury of a casual format like Cube is that I don’t actually need to have anything. At all. This card is really good, and it would certainly make the list if I owned one, but come on. I’m all-in on a reprint at this point, because there’s no way I’m paying so much for a utility creature that doesn’t even add that profound an effect to my cube.  No thanks.

Top-Heavy

Man, the community at large already knew this, but going through this block, it reminded me how bad Gatecrash was compared to Return to Ravnica, and how bad Dragon’s Maze was compared to Gatecrash. There’s lots of EDH playables in Gatecrash that I didn’t cover, so if that’s your scene, I’d suggest going through the listDragon’s Maze, on the other hand, was filled with complete junk, and I regret that I will never get the minutes back that it took me to scroll through that awful list of cards.

Any Cube-playables that I failed to mention from Return to Ravnica block? Have a specific card you’re wondering about? Drop a comment below.

MTG Fast Finance: Episode 4

by Travis Allen (@wizardbumpin) & James Chillcott (@mtgcritic)

MTG Fast Finance is a new weekly podcast that tries to break down the flurry of financial activity in the world of Magic: The Gathering into a fast, fun and useful thirty minute format. Follow along with our seasoned hosts as they walk you through this week’s big price movements, their picks of the week, metagame analysis and a rotating weekly topic.

Show Notes: Feb 13th

Segment 1: Top Movers of the Week

Worship (7th/8th)
Start: $2.50
Finish: $20.00
Gain: +$17.50 (+700%)

Eldrazi Obligator (OGW)
Start: $0.30
Finish: $2.25
Gain: +$1.95 (+650%)

Angel’s Grace (Foil)
Start: $8.90
Finish: $48.00
Gain: +$40.00 (+500%)

Endless One (BFZ)
Start: $1.00
Finish: $5.00
Gain: +$4.00 (+400%)

Simian Spirit Guide (Foil, Planar Chaos)
Start: $20.00
Finish: $80.00
Gain: +$60.00 (+300%)

Descendants’ Path (AVR)
Start: $1.50
Finish: $6.00
Gain: +4.50 (+300%)

Death’s Shadow (Foil)
Start: $8.00
Finish: $30.00
Gain: +22.00 (+275%)

Painter’s Servant (Shadowmoor)
Start: $12.00
Finish: $30.00
Gain: +$18.00 (+150%)

Segment 2: Cards to Watch

James Picks:

  1. Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger, BFZ: $20 to $40+ (+100%, 0-6 months)
  2. MIrrorpool, OGW (Foil): $13 to $30+ (+130%, 12+ months)
  3. Sea Gate Wreckage, OGW (Foil): $8 to $20+ (150%, 12+ months)

Disclosure: James is only holding copies of Ulamog from this list.

Travis Picks:

  1. Arboria, LEG: $3 to $25 (+700%, 6-12+ months)
  2. Spike Feeder (Foil), TSP: $9 to $20 (+100%, 6-12+ months)

Disclosure: Travis is holding copies of Arboria.

Segment 3: Metagame Week in Review

James and Travis reflected on the absolute dominance of the Eldrazi decks at Pro Tour: Oath of the Gatewatch, noting that 75% of the Top 8 decks were various flavors of the archetype. Affinity made up the other two decks. Team East West Bowl was called out as the most “tech” team of the tournament based on their brilliant UR Eldrazi build designed to give the deck game against Affinity and in the mirror.

Segment 4: Topic of the Week: Interview with Pro Tour: Oath of the Gatewatch Top 8 Competitor Andrew Brown (UR Eldrazi)

The guys had a good chat with Andrew covering the genesis of the Blue/Red Eldrazi deck, the community reaction to the deck. the financial impact of the decks’ success as well as the likelihood of a related ban in the near future.

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

Grinder Finance – Cleaning Out The Closet

A lot of people are freaking out about Eldrazi.  The deck with 2 reprinted lands in Modern Masters 2015 and a bunch of Standard legal rares apparently has everyone running scared.  This is my way of dealing with it:

pint

For anyone who doesn’t get this, you need to go spend some time and watch Shaun of the Dead.

Either way, my position from last week hasn’t changed.  I’ll just take a break from Modern until someone smarter than me figures out how to beat the tentacle menace.

Rally the Ancestors by Nils Hamm
Rally the Ancestors by Nils Hamm

The State of Standard

If you’re not playing a deck that could also be named “Revenge of the Sand People,” then you’re probably trying to play something to beat it.  I think we have already seen the power of Collected Company and Reflector Mage as well.  So what happens from here?

Collected Company by Franz Vohwinkel
Collected Company by Franz Vohwinkel

The Short term (next 3 months)

Rally is good, Collected Company is good, Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet is good. But what about in 3 months when rotation happens?  Despite coming out very recently, I think it’s correct to sell Kalitas before rotation.  My aim would be the week before Shadows over Innistrad spoilers officially start.  Kalitas doesn’t actually act very favorably with the self-mill themes that were popular during original Innistrad.  His wording is different than Anafenza, the Foremost.  With the rotation of Rally the Ancestors I don’t think there will be as big of an emphasis on exiling creatures.

If you play Abzan aggro you’re liking paying $40 to keep your Siege Rhinos, Warden of the First Tree, and Anafenza, the Foremost until rotation as that will be a minimal cost to continue playing.

Collected Company will stay good unless the mana is really bad in Shadows over Innistrad. The shell of Collected Company, Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy, and Reflector Mage will be intact until the fall.

100 jace

So if you’re worried about the feet coming out from under your Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy we’re slowly coming to the last 6 months of him being legal in Standard.  With the release of the unannounced fall set he will rotate.  If wisdom from Khans of Tarkir taught us anything, we will see the last spike during the release of Shadows over Innistrad (6 months before rotation).  The hype for new madness cards could certainly put him over $100 and his recent lack of Modern play leads me to believe that would be the time to get out.

Hangarback

I’m not sure there Hangarback Walker will go out with a band or a whimper (like our old friend Siege Rhino) but it is important to note that this card is one of very few cards with multiple card types that are Standard playable.  This is important for Delirium cards, like the one confirmed in Blessed vs Cursed duel deck.

mindwrack demon
Source: http://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/feature/duel-decks-blessed-vs-cursed-2016-02-15

My last bit of advice is in these next 3 months find some time to grab all of the Battle for Zendikar and Oath of the Gatewatch dual lands.  We will need to find a way to make Battle land / Man land mana bases work and it will likely involve a lot of them (since we are losing fetches, which make up a larger portion of many mana bases today).

reflectormage

Do you own 4 of these yet? I know it’s uncommon (pun intended) for uncommons to become very expensive but this guy is the real deal.  He punishes fair decks and unfair decks alike, making it unlikely any real strong reanimator strategy is in our future.  Once we start moving away from 3-4 color decks I could see him teaming up with Harbinger of the Tides for some sick tempo action.  I don’t think it would particularly hard for him to become a $3-4 uncommon if the dominance levels continue.

eerie interlude

Also this little Ghostway upgrade could also cause more groans from the audience.

The Long Term

eternal masters

Yeah it happened.  Missed the announcement? Check it out here.

I’ll share with you the information I’ve compiled from various sources that should answer most of your questions:

  • No reserve list cards
  • $9.99 MSRP
  • 24 packs per box
  • 1 foil per pack
  • No recyclable packaging (like used for Modern Masters 2015)
  • It is designed to be drafted and will be on MTGO
  • It will include Modern legal cards but that is not the focus Source
  • It will have a limited print run (like Modern Masters)

These cards are in it:

force of will EMAwasteland EMA

By the time you’re reading this Underground Sea has probably become significantly pricier than last weekend but I think that is to be expected.  Unless something happens to the Reserve List, people will continue to purchase those cards knowing they won’t be reprinted and subject to huge price drops.  Right now my advice is buy reserve list cards you may need otherwise just “wait and see.”  I don’t think the new card availability will do a ton to revitalize the Legacy community.

Final Thoughts

  • Use this time to clean up your collection.  We’re about to head into a rotation with a lot of powerful cards leaving Standard.  Some bulk rares will rebound
  • Watch tournament results.  Blips in the standings are the best times to get in.
  • Enjoy playing Magic.

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