Grinder Finance – Field Report: Grand Prix Atlanta

While guest writer, Jeremy (@LengthyXemit) was not available to bring you a financial breakdown of Grand Prix Atlanta, I was there and will do my best to provide you will unbiased information from the Grand Prix.

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I arrived late on Friday and was able to stop by all of the vendors to check out buy and sell prices.  Grand Prix regular, Ogre, was buying for a rather rag-tag booth.  I’m honestly not sure who was running the booth because they didn’t have signage saying as much.  In all, there was a paltry 8 vendors (and StarCity games) buying and selling at this Grand Prix.  It was clear from the onset it was a buyer’s market.

Player Trends

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I don’t want to continue to sound like I’m singing a song of gloom and doom but if you didn’t sell your cards on Friday or very early on Saturday, you had very limited deals.  I had an Unlimited Volcanic Island I was interested on selling and decided to try to shop it around.  Most cards in Modern and Standard it’s easy to tell who you should sell to (the hotlists boards say a lot).  With Legacy or Vintage staples (especially cards on the reserve list) you can ask vendors until you get the best price.  Depending on how well they move the product they may offer you more or less on cards like Moxen (which vary widely by condition).  I went to my friends at the Coolstuff booth and got a quote a bit lower than I wanted to get that weekend.  After I went to 6 other booths without any offer, I realized it was going to be difficult to move it for top dollar.  I raced back and got my money before they could buy too many more dual lands.  The theme of the weekend is that nearly every vendor was marking down played duals and turning away sellers with more of them.  I’m not sure if this “sell off” is a reaction to StarCity’s announcement of reduced Legacy support or if this is just coinciding with the end of year sell off. StarCity games also had aggressively priced duals in their HP display case and even did a special sale on Sunday morning for a deeper discount.

Dealer Preparedness

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If you wanted to sell cards after dropping from the tournament to get some cash for side events, you would have had some bad news.  Many dealers (especially the smaller ones) ran out of cash to purchase cards midway through Saturday.  I’m not sure if they came under prepared or had nobody that could take out more but if you wanted cash your choice of the 8 vendors was very limited.  Some vendors (like Ice Imports, above) changed their hotlist boards from buy price to “credit price” which often made it look more enticing than it was.  I’m fairly certain a lot more people sold off their standard collection this weekend than was expected.  If you have a lot of standard cards you were waiting to sell off, you’re probably about to run out of time by the time this article comes out.  I would expect Grand Prix Pittsburgh to have some of the lowest buy prices of the year.

Expeditions

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Special guest appearance by Brainstorm Brewery co-host Ryan Bushard

I bought a number of expeditions this weekend and there were deals to be had if you were vigilant.  Cases were changing so often you could visit the same booth every few hours and see a different selection of expeditions.  I tried to make some slightly lower offers than sticker price but none of the vendors were really interested.  The prices were pretty comparable to TCG low on a lot of them and I managed to fill out some I was missing for about that much.  If you bought any expeditions this weekend then you probably got them at the lowest price they will ever be again.  I personally was able to pick up an expedition Cinder Glade, Watery Grave, Sacred Foundry, and Arid Mesa for a paltry $250.   I can’t stress this enough, but if you want these then get them now.  We’re done seeing them get cheaper.

Battle for Zendikar

Have you ever seen a dealer tell you they didn’t want any more of a chase Standard mythic? A lot of vendors’ cases were filled to the brim with Gideon, Ally of Zendikar and buy price a fraction of his sticker price.  I would expect an overall drop in the price of the land cycle, Gideon, and any remaining mythics or rares holding value in the set in the coming weeks.  This is not unexpected, as the usual best buy point to get into fall set cards is late December.  If you are interested in picking up cards for EDH or other more casual formats, you can expect the best prices in December until they rotate in Spring 2017.  I’m personally looking to grab my Gideons for the year around Christmas.  I’m expecting to pay about $20 per copy.

Fetch lands

I sold off my extra ones this weekend as they have been on a pretty steady decline on buy lists.  For some reason, Flipside was paying $11 for Windswept Heath (which is the highest I’ve seen it – most vendors were paying $6-9) but the rest of them were $16 or less.  I think we may actually have another “good” time to buy into them soon.  A lot of vendors are filled to the brim with lands and it’s only a matter of time before they reduce sell prices to move some inventory.  If you have some money eating a hole in your pocket it’s hard to not recommend picking up some real estate in December.

Making Friends

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Grands Prix are much more than just buying and selling cards.  Meeting new friends and forging connections makes every Grand Prix that much more fun.  Self proclaimed “King of the Nerds” – Zach (@ZachSellsMagic) is pictured here with his prize wall spoils without playing in any side events.  If you’re interested in oversized card finance Zach is your go-to for information on cards that aren’t one-ofs (like the Eternal weekend cards).

Closing Thoughts

  • I will be at GP Pittsburgh next weekend battling it out and searching the vendors.  Apparently there are 19 (!) vendors scheduled to be in attendance.  If you have any questions that you would like me to research while there, leave them below!
  • Mtg finance information will be slowing down as the lack of tournaments causes a card price drop across the board.  We’re about 4 weeks out from the lowest priced cards of the year.
  • Modern prices should start rebounding much sooner because the first Pro Tour next year (Oath of the Gatewatch) is Modern.

 

PROTRADER: Closing the Arbitrage Gaps

It couldn’t have been all my doing. At least, not directly. Whether or not I sparked action is a separate matter.

Of course I’m talking about recent arbitrage opportunities. Many that I have cited in the past have dried up, especially on stuff like Alpha and Beta.

But I’m sure it didn’t take much to impact market pricing on older and more obscure cards. When a store is trying to stock up on near mint Alpha rares, it doesn’t take more than a copy or two to motivate them to drop their buy prices. Even giants like Star City Games can’t possibly want to sink more than a couple hundred dollars into stuff like Alpha Chaoslace.

Chaoslace

As a result, previous blanket statements I’ve made in the past no longer hold true. Since I wrote an article on Alpha and Beta buy lists a couple months ago I’ve noticed many price cuts at Star City Games and, more notably, Channel Fireball. When I noticed strong buy lists I made sure to cite them for our ProTraders. Now that trends reversed some, I wanted to make sure I doubled back to this topic to provide a timely update.

The rest of this content is only visible to ProTrader members.

To learn how ProTrader can benefit YOU, click here to watch our short video.

expensive cards

ProTrader: Magic doesn’t have to be expensive.

PROTRADER: Breaking Down Grand Prix Seattle

Legacy is dead. Legacy is dying. Legacy just had its biggest weekend of the year. Legacy is not dying. Star City Games is trying to kill Legacy. Star City Games is the sole reason people care about Legacy. Legacy is too expensive. Legacy is cheaper than Standard. Legacy is the next Vintage. Modern is the next Legacy. Legacy is the funnest/coolest/best format ever! Nothing beside remains.

The rest of this content is only visible to ProTrader members.

To learn how ProTrader can benefit YOU, click here to watch our short video.

expensive cards

ProTrader: Magic doesn’t have to be expensive.

Shocks vs. Fetches

By: Cliff Daigle

In my never-ending quest to gain value from Magic, I feel like there are times when the correct financial play is obvious. Architect of Thought is $5 when Dragon’s Maze is out? Pick up a few. Hero’s Downfall is $10? Move them out!

In the last couple of years, though, I feel I had a huge swing and a miss recently: fetch lands.

Like many people, I didn’t advocate trading aggressively for fetches while they were in print. I never missed an opportunity to trade for them when they were available, but I also felt fine trading them away as well. There was no point hoarding them, because there were so many and people got the sets and specific ones they needed relatively quickly.

You know, like what happened with shock lands in Return to Ravnica block?

However, the time has come to admit I was wrong in this viewpoint. The allied fetches have seen remarkable growth recently, and I think there are several reasons why.

As always, I want to think about where I went wrong so I don’t do it again.

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These have doubled since their low point of Dragons of Tarkir. Doubled!

But let’s look at shock lands and compare them.

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These have stayed relatively flat after they rotated out of Standard, and didn’t move much after a minor spike at the beginning of Theros block, but they went back down until rotation.

I thought that fetches would follow the same pattern: bump a little bit once they weren’t in drafts anymore, but stay stable. I certainly wasn’t expecting Polluted Delta to rise the way it has, or any of the fetches. So what the heck happened?

Factor #1: Theros vs. Battle for Zendikar

Let’s face it: Theros as a set introduced us to devotion as a mechanic. Return to Ravnica block had many good multicolor cards, but the powerhouse decks were focused on casting lots of the same color of cards.

Battle for Zendikar has landfall as a mechanic, and fetches certainly help with that, but the main thing is that the theme of Khans of Tarkir hasn’t faded at all. Everyone still has their Siege Rhinos and playing three or four colors is even easier now. (More on that in a second.)

Factor #2: Modern

I overlooked this as a factor in the price. Shocks had already been legal in Modern, and this was just adding to the quantity available. This was also the time when Modern really began to take off as a format, since people could bring their newly acquired shock lands over to this format without having to spend much on the manabase.

The allied fetches hadn’t been legal in Modern before, and that meant players could have exactly as many fetchlands as they wanted, in any color distribution. Also, I expect that not many players want to move their lands from the Standard deck to the Modern deck and back again, so there’s probably a bit more of a drain on the supply.

I know I truly despise moving cards between EDH decks, and I’d hate moving playsets around even more.

Factor #3: Casual players

Before the reprint, an Onslaught Polluted Delta was up to $120. It was only legal in Legacy and Vintage, and it was the king price-wise. The announcement sliced that value in half, and now it’s trickled down to $40.

Players who wanted Onslaught fetches for their Cube or Commander decks might have been priced out, but when Khans landed, a good amount of the supply went to those players. I know I’ve added those fetches to all of my decks, and I can’t wait for the enemy ones to be reprinted so I can finally get a foil Scalding Tarn without taking out a mortgage.

As a side note, the reprint in Khans of Tarkir did affect foil prices too. Foil Delta went from about $475 to $350. Normally, I see foils as a safe place to put value, especially old-frame ones, but I need to think about what affected this price.

Factor #4: Battle Lands

I think this is probably the biggest reason that the fetches have spiked so hard. It’s been a long time since one land was able to get you your choice of four colors of mana. Polluted Delta can get you anything but green mana! In Standard! To get this level of flexibility, you have to go to Modern (and pay two more life) or Legacy (and buy duals!).

When the easy mana of fetches + battle lands is added to the relatively low power level of Battle for Zendikar, you have a formula that pushes players to play lots and lots of colors. This doesn’t even count how delve cards are begging for extra cards in the yard, to the point that Evolving Wilds is showing up in some lists. Even the mechanic of converge for Radiant Flames or Painful Truths encourages multi-color play, and there aren’t any cards yet that strongly push players towards a mere two colors.

 

The cards in Khans of Tarkir are, by any objective measurement, more powerful than Battle for Zendikar. Being multicolored is a design tool allowing cards to be stronger, because needing three colors is supposed to be hard. Unless you’re paying life or going through other contortions, casting Mantis Rider on turn three shouldn’t be a given, but that’s where we are today.

We are only there until April, though. Shadows of Innistrad lands on April 6, and now we begin the new world of 18-month Standard. I’ve held onto my fetches long enough. I’m trading them now before they begin to fall. I’m not going to try for 120% when I’ve already made 100% gains in value. I’m going to also suggest that if you have fetches in any casual deck, that you take them out, trade or sell them, and then pick them up again in April when they have fallen.


 

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