PROTRADER: Battle for Zendikar Set Review – Green

Battle for Zendikar has arrived! There’s been a ton said about this set already, from how Expeditions will push all the other prices down (they will), to whether or not the rest of the set “sucks” (the power level is down for sure, but I’m okay with this), to whether there actually is any financial opportunity in the set (Fathom Feeder is quietly up to $3, which I advocated getting in at a buck).

Anyway, that’s all big-picture stuff, and frankly is the typical complaining of Magic players, who are literally complaining about the way $100 bills (Expeditions lands) are being folded inside packs. I’m not here to talk about all that. Instead, I’m here to talk about the green cards we’re getting in Battle for Zendikar, so let’s dig in.

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Wrapping up BFZ, Plus More Reddit Questions

Well, we’ve almost made it. It’s the day before the midnight prerelease of Battle for Zendikar, and I can’t remember the last time I was this excited for a prerelease. I feel like a 2.5 on an excitement scale of one to ten, which is saying something. I haven’t gone to a prerelease in exactly a year; Khans of Tarkir was the most recent one that I attended, and that was just because my fiancée and I were bored and needed something to do on our weekend away together. There’s about a 25-percent chance that I’ll end up going to the Battle for Zendikar prerelease with her for the same exact reason.

Counterbore

But hey, Wizards is getting there with its marketing. A 25-percent chance is better than nothing.

Shameless Set Review Plug

Now that we’re this close to the wire, I’m thankful that I don’t have to dedicate an entire article or two to a set review. With our spoiler coverage, Jason Alt and I have been taking care of that throughout the past several weeks, a little bit at a time. The small dosage of spoilers each day prevented us from being driven insane at the thought of doing entire set review articles, so I’ll just link our coverage here in case you missed it and are just dying to read about Battle for Zendikar cards today. Jason and I restricted ourselves to all of the rares (and a few cool uncommons), but you can find the complete card image gallery here. 

Apathy

All in all, I’m pretty apathetic about the set. There are a few cards that I’m excited to add to a couple of my EDH decks (Smothering Abomination for Savra, and new Drana for Marchesa), but I’m overall disappointed at the lack of material for my Child of Alara lands deck that I keep talking about.

Our wide staff of writers (I mean, I’m saying that we have a lot of writers, not that all of us are fat…), including myself, have been covering Battle for Zendikar a ton in these past few weeks, so I’m sort of already Zendikar‘ed out. Last week I got a huge positive response wave to my Reddit Q&A/mailbag article, which made me incredibly happy. I really appreciate all of the comments and messages that I received, and it especially works out because I really enjoy writing articles that answer specific questions that allow me to go into a lot of depth with a single answer. Because of that, I want to test the waters with a second article that picks questions from the same weekly r/mtgfinance weekly AMA to see where it takes us.

I’m not sure why the text is so small on these screenshots that I took of the Reddit comments, so I copied and pasted the users’ questions into the article itself to make them readable.

$30 for a Set Symbol

question

I’ve been wondering for some time as to why there can be such huge price variation of a certain (near identical) card that is printed in multiple sets. I.e. Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth has been printed three times: Planar Chaos, FTV Realms and M15 and these are the trade values of the foils from the different sets (from mtgprice.com):

Planar Chaos: $47.75 FTV Realms: $12.98 M15: $14.70

Now that’s some huge differences for the same card that has the same art and flavor text. If they’d had different art, I would have no problem understanding the differences – but they don’t. If anything, I believe the M15 version should be the highest valued because of the hologram (which makes it a whole lot harder to fake).

Hence, my question: Do people really pay $30 extra just for a certain icon on the card or has the card prices just not evened out yet?

dramak1ng

urborg

If you’ve ever foiled out an EDH deck before, you might have noticed that original set foils are often a lot more expensive than their reprinted counterparts. While this can usually be explained partially through different a different card frame, art, or even flavor text, there are a significant number of original set foils whose price remains a huge degree higher than the reprinted version, even when they have the same art.

Reddit user dramak1ng asked if people really are willing to pay $30 extra for a certain set symbol, and the simple (yet somewhat unsettling) answer is yes. There are people out there who are still willing to pay $45 for a foil Planar Chaos Urborg even though the $15 M15 version exists and has the hologram at the bottom of the card. The first reason behind this is the same reason people buy foils in the first place: they want their decks to be the best, regardless of how much money needs to be spent to make it happen. Even when that small difference between the two cards is the set symbol, there’s a sense of pride and honor in your opponent asking to read your card, and being able to say “Yeah, that’s the $50 one. It’s from Planar Chaos and there are a lot fewer copies out there than the other versions.” Does it make sense to most of us? Hell no. I’m not going to shell out for black bordered ABU duals for Child of Alara just to gain bragging rights.

The other part of the equation is one that I can relate to more. I actually own a Planar Chaos foil Urborg, and it sits in my Savra deck. I’ve had the thing for god knows how many years, and I probably traded for it back when it was at $20 or $25. I remember when it was worth $65 for that brief period around Journey Into Nyx right before it was reprinted, and I was so tempted to sell it, but I just couldn’t do it. Now that the M15 version is out and the price has dropped to $45, I can’t bring myself to sell it for any less. Yes, price memory is a very real thing.

Price memory is a reflection of how strongly a card is tied to a specific price in the mind of the Magic-playing community at large, regardless of what that value actually “should” be based on pure supply and demand. If a bunch of players like me own foil original Urborgs and think that they should be worth $45 even though they rarely sell for that much, then the price will remain close to that just because of an unwillingness to sell for anything less. This is one of the reasons why original set foils are much safer of an investment than anything other than reserved list staples, but they are a lot harder to find the right market for. Their value is theoretically harder to kill than later reprinted cards, but you have to work a lot harder to find that one guy who cares enough about shelling out for the original version.

Using Fat Stacks to Buy Fat Packs

question1

I’m not sure how the printing for Fat Packs works; I’ve heard somewhere that they were only printed once. I’m seeing some really ridiculous prices for them here (60$CAD+taxes…) but I’ve managed to find some for 45$. Should I be buying them now, or waiting until the hype dies down a bit?

Azuriae

Yes, you heard correctly. Fat Packs are printed in a single run (albeit an enormous one), and once that print run is done, there aren’t anymore. The world can theoretically run out of Fat Packs, and Wizards will be be all dried up. However, I highly doubt this will happen. Wizards knows that there will be a large demand for this specific product because of the full-art lands that will be included, and there will be a huge number of Fat Packs available.

Fat Ass Fat Ass Fat Ass

They aren’t a limited release product like From the Vault, either, so you should be able to still find them at Wal-Mart, Targetor any other large retail store should your LGS happens to be sold out.

I really don’t think you should be shelling out over MSRP for Fat Backs, booster packs, boxes, cases, or anything from Battle for Zendikar. Take some deep breaths. There will be enough to go around. If you do want to buy some Fat Packs at MSRP, I wouldn’t recommend holding onto them as spec targets either. Just because there’s a single print run doesn’t mean that you will be able to find buyers willing to pay above MSRP several years down the road. At that point, people would rather just buy booster boxes, and the full-art basic lands will be a dime a dozen. Don’t speculate on fat packs.

Phyrexian Judge Foil Panic

question3

The Phyrexian language Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite just dropped like 40 dollars overnight. That’s about 5% of its total price. Is there any reason why? If I want it, should I keep waiting for it to drop?

green_circles

Norngraph

Man, I will never get over how cool that text is. I highly doubt that they’re ever going to reprint Norn in such a way ever again, at least for several years. While there may have been a blip on the radar that suggested Norn was going down a bit in price, remember that there are an extremely small number of copies of these on the open market, and that any slight change in inventory by sellers on TCGplayer and eBay can cause the card to look like it’s trending somewhere.

Nothing has happened in recent times that would suggest the card is any less popular on a grand [cenobite] scale, so I would just mark it up to a small number of sellers deciding to undercut the market to move their copies as quickly as possible. There are only four sellers on TCGplayer right now, and MTG Deals has, well, a pretty good deal considering the fair trade price of the card. If you’re looking to pick one up for cube or EDH, now doesn’t seem like a bad time. The card probably isn’t going to be getting any significantly cheaper over the next few years.

norn2

Need vs. Want

question4

If I need a playset of [[Shambling Vent]] for Abzan but would be okay waiting a couple weeks if it were worth it, should I buy in at $4.25/ea or wait a couple weeks? How about [[Canopy Vista]]?

mtg1200

Sorry mtg1200, but the r/mtgfinance subreddit doesn’t have its own cardfetcher bot.

In your situation, there isn’t really a right answer that I can tell you right now. I mean, there is, but I’d be guessing. I need more information provided in your question. How badly do you need those cards for the opening week of Battle for Zendikar? Are you going to grind a bunch of events in the first few weeks of the set’s release, and do you feel confident in your skill level and deck construction to take all of them down? If so, then your investment of $17 for a playset of Shambling Vents could very well pay off (although I question the necessity of an entire playset of that card in Abzan… maybe it’s a one- or two-of?).

Need for Speed

However, if you just want them for one or two small, local FNMs, then you might want to hold off on the investment until a lot more product floods the market. I wrote this article over six months ago, but it’s still one of my favorite shorter pieces that I wrote for Brainstorm Brewery: Rent a Card. The TL;DR of the article is that when you invest in a card knowing that its price will likely decline, you’re basically paying to “rent” the card for those few weeks. The price of renting is your initial cost of payment subtracting the amount you eventually sell the card for. While you could just wait until those numbers will cancel out and be zero, you’re hoping to obtain an intangible play value out of the card that will make up for the overpriced amount you paid at release.

End Step

In other news, Hardened Scales continues to climb. It’s up to $3.50 fair trade price as of today, and I’m on the fence as to whether or not I should sell my copies. I’m leaning towards selling them if I can get $3 a piece, but who knows. Maybe there will be a competitive Standard list that plays it after rotation and makes me bite my tongue.

After seeing the entire set spoiled, I’m less bullish on Dragon Whisperer at $3. We don’t have a Lightning Strike or Searing Spear for the first time in a while, so I’m not sure if mono-red will have the burn it needs. I still like Whisperer as a trade target at $3, and I still think you should pick them up now if you’re adamant about playing Mountains post rotation. I’m just done picking up any more right now (disclosure: I have 10 copies), and I don’t think buying large quantities is the correct move at this point.

Questions? Comments? Concerns? There’s a section for that stuff, you know.

PROTRADER: Battle for Zendikar Set Review – Black

By: Travis Allen

I was going to start this article off by discussing how prices will be impacted by Expeditions, but Sigmund did it Monday, Danny sort of did it Tuesday, and even I already discussed it last week. Just go look at those if you aren’t sure what I’m talking about.

To be fair, Derek raises a good point today. Sure, the Expeditions lands are out there, but something has to be worth money, right? The seven new lands, Gideon, Ally of Zendikar, Ob Nixilis Reignited, and Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger should occupy much of that space. The remaining will be filled by two or three more mythics and rares, though which ones is yet to be seen. Are they in black?

You’ll definitely see normal prices early on in this set’s life, up to Pro Tour Battle for Zendikar and probably for a week or two following as well. Supply will be constrained (purposefully) by insufficient box availability, and so Expeditions will not yet have wreaked its havoc. Our gloomy perspective is more long-term. I anticipate we’ll begin to see the fallout materialize around a month in or so.

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Going Mad – Something’s Gotta Give

By: Derek Madlem

We’ve theory crafted the hell out of this set already and said time and time again that there’s no good investment targets in this set. This is the tune we’ve all been playing since the Expeditions were spoiled, and it’s been said across pretty much every #mtginance article about Battle for Zendikar. But now that we’ve seen the entire spoiler there’s a grim truth to acknowledge: something has to be worth money.

Expeditions

The easiest place to pile on the bulk of the set’s value is on the altar of Expeditions. We don’t really have any reasonable idea where the value of expeditions will land, but it’s unlikely that we’re going to see $350 Marsh Flats and Blood Crypts any time soon so that means the rest of the cards in the set are going to need to soak up some of that value. But there’s just soooooo much garbage.

Hard Garbage

Anyone that’s been paying attention to the talking heads for very long will quickly point out that we all said pretty much the same thing about Dragons of Tarkir, but sure enough value materialized there. What’s the difference this time? Well sit down kid, I’ll tell you:

Hard garbage.

What’s hard garbage? Hard garbage is a term defining those rares that only exists in bulk boxes and have no competitive prospects. Hard garbage is a level of bulk rare that’s not debatable, these cards are barely playable even in limited. Like what?

woodlandwanderer

Face it, nobody is going to run four colors to live the dream of a 6/6 Vigilance Trample creature. How many would run this in a three color deck to situationally power out a four mana 5/5?

prismarray

For this price, I would want the tapped creature to stay tapped as long as Prism Array remained on the battlefield. For all five colors of mana I want a little more bang for my buck than scry 3. Is there a world where we drop this in a three color deck to tap three creatures? Nope.

broodbutcher

This has been compared to Phyrexian Plaguelord. I got news for you, I’m a close personal friend of Phyrexian Plaguelord, and this is no Phyrexian Plaguelord. Is this card good in limited? Probably. Is this card playable in constructed? Have at it. I can think of better things to do with five mana in constructed, most of which already cost a dollar.

exertinfluence

Are you kidding me? Mind Control was five mana and basically unplayable in constructed and now you want to make it a five color spell with an upper limit? Get the ____ out. Seriously, out. This card is the prime example of hard garbage. Unless we somehow stumble upon a format full of two power indestructible creatures, this is not playable in any sense of the word. Hard garbage.

serpentinespike

“What if we took Cone of Flame and made it bigger?”
“Cone of Flame? You mean that uncommon that was only played in limited?”
“Yeah, except there’s a twist! We’ll make it colorless!”
“Brilliant!”
-overheard at Wizards

Seriously, who comes up with this crap? I know this set is supposed to be durdly, but for seven mana a rare removal spell should just straight exile three creatures. Requiring three targets is a downside, not an upside. Exhibit A:

Image

Remember when this card was good? Me neither.

Soft Garbage

Beyond the hard garbage, we have mountains of soft garbage. These cards are just clones of cards that we’ve seen before with a twist. What’s the twist? They’re worse. There’s a chance some of these see play, but their not going to hold any value because there are just better options in eternal formats.

From Beyond

Remember when Awakening Zone was all the rage? It was a cute way to get a creature into play for Polymorph, but that was the extent of it’s usefulness during its reign. Well, it’s back! But it costs more! Oh wait, this has a sweet tutor ability so you can search out your best eldrazi! Just think, you can tutor up a seven mana eldrazi and play it on turn six!

Radiant Flames

Remember Firespout? How about Slagstorm? Anger of the Gods? What do these cards have in common? They’re all more reliable than Radiant Flames. Sure, there’s a corner case scenario in some format where you would like your Anger of the Gods to only deal two damage because that’s enough to kill all your opponent’s creatures but not enough to kill all those sweet three toughness creatures you’re playing…but that’s not a compelling reason to play a less reliable sweeper spell.

painfultruths

We’re all going to try it and we’re all going to pretend that the flexibility is better, but given the current state of Standard…we’re just going to play Abzan Charm instead, aren’t we? At three mana in one or two colors we get to draw two cards with zero drawback, if we’re going to play three colors we should get to draw three cards with no drawback. This card is symptomatic of everything wrong with Battle for Zendikar, it’s power level was pushed…in the wrong direction.

Beyond these examples, there are a number of cards that require cards in exile to have any effect. These cards are depowered to make the ingest mechanic matter in limited, but that ultimately means that these cards will be nigh-unplayable in constructed unless we see a whole new slew of delve cards that we can’t live without.

The Crossroads

Between the foundation of garbage and the beautiful vistas we’ll find on our Expeditions, there’s something; and something is still going to be worth…err, something. We’ll start with the obvious:

Tango lands

These are your best bet for holding some of the set’s non-catastrophic real estate. The tango lands are going to see heavy play at least until the fetch lands rotate (and beyond if we’re lucky and Zendikar fetches get reprinted). There is potential for these to soak up all the remaining value equity in the set, but there’s a couple other contenders to consider:

obnixilisreignited2Ob Nixilis is a solid card advantage engine that can protect himself with targeted removal. He can easily slot into an Abzan or Esper Dragons decks without much hassle and the absence of Hero’s Downfall is only going to make him that much more powerful contextually.

gideonallyofzendikar

Gideon has appeal. I personally don’t like this card as a constructed player, but there is a huge subsection of casual players that are getting ready to sleeve up allies like it’s going out of style…and that’s not to mention all the Gideon fans that would follow this guy right into Kozilek’s rectum if he asked them too.

kioramasterofthedepths1

I’m not excited about Kiora’s prospects in constructed, mostly because Sultai and Temur have been steaming turds for the bulk of Khans of Tarkir’s run in Standard thus far. There’s a chance that the format gets slowed down enough that Sultai is able to grind out the long games again, but the loss of Whip of Erebos is going to put a major hurting on that strategy. The good news for Kiroa is that she’s a two-color planeswalker and players identify strongly with their favorite guilds…especially those Simic kids.

partthewaterveil

Those Commander kids love their Time Walk effects and this card would be an auto-include in those decks even without the awaken portion of the text box. At Mythic rare, this is going to hold some value, though likely only around $5.

quarantinefield

Quarantine Field is a card that has potential to give us all headaches. This sort of utility effect at Mythic rare can leave us all cringing if we end up seeing optimal builds running four copies. While I’m not excited to pay four mana for an Oblivion Ring, getting two for six mana is pretty much average, and getting three for eight mana is just #value.

I’m placing my bets on this seeing a similar amount of play as Silence the Believers, a sporadic one-of.

shamblingvent

This brings us to the manlands. If you were around the last time these cards graced Standard, you’ll remember that their prices varied greatly with Lavaclaw Reaches on the low end and Raging Ravine and Celestial Colonnade splitting the upper tier. We can expect that some of these will be duds while others will excel. Shambling Vent feels like a loser to me.

On turn four you can activate this land to block a two power creature or you can cast a real threat. This is the weakest offensively of all the two color manlands printed to date. Even Lavaclaw had the ability to dump additional mana to accelerate the clock. Shambling Vent has no evasion and very little body to talk of.

lumberingfalls

Lumbering Falls has the dubious honor of being the best of the new manlands, but only because we’re only getting two with Battle for Zendikar. At three power, this at least matches the clock provided by Stirring Wildwood, a card that was playable but not amazing during it’s day. The big bonus for Lumbering Falls is hexproof; this allows the Falls to take the role of solid finisher for a control deck as it dodges board wipes and spot removal and, for now, larger manlands. Being a playable land is usually a good start when it comes to being worth money.

We’re also likely to see some of the rare and mythic eldrazi soaking up some of that value equity, kids love big stupid creatures.

The Crux of Fate

As a master of hyperbole, I can spot hyperbole. The thing to remember is that something HAS TO be worth money. Nearly all of us #mtgfinance writers have been saying that nothing in this set is going to be worth money outside of the Expeditions, and that’s probably not going to be the case. I think we’re better off saying that we’re not excited about any of these cards as investments.

We’re entering uncharted territory when it comes to #mtgfinance. We don’t know what the upper limit for “super users” is when it comes to pricing these lands. I really don’t think there are that many $500+ Scalding Tarn buyers out there waiting in the shadows to unload their cash in exchange for shiny cardboard, but we’ll know soon enough.

While many of you will be Battling for Zendikar at your local prerelease, I’m going to be checking eBay for that first wave of expedition lands…this is going to be the real starting point in the conversation about the financial value of BFZ. The completed listing prices will ultimately determine what everything else in the set is going to be worth and even lower value expeditions only leave room for just a small handful of cards to be of any value.


 

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