Honorable Mentions

March 24, 2015 Travis Allen 5 Comments

By: Travis Allen

Last week was my big honking Dragons of Tarkir set review, which you can find here. It’s a wild and exciting piece of work, sure to enrich your life beyond belief.

One aspect of that review that I got some guff for is that it’s a fairly safe piece of work. I don’t peg any prices at particularly high numbers, and I expect basically every single card to fall in price. While 95% of cards fall from their prerelease prices, there should be at least one or two breakouts, right?

Yes, but identifying them – and then attaching prices and timelines to them – is exceedingly difficult, as well as dangerous. If I say that card X is the breakout card of the set and is going to rise in price tenfold, there will be people out there that rush out and spend a lot of money speculating on it. If that card fails to ever rise in price, that person lost money because of something I said. They’re going to be upset that they listened to me, and they’re never going to forget that either. I will be forever “that one guy that cost me a hundred bucks.”

It’s considerably safer for me to always shoot low on card prices. If I don’t comment on anything as likely to see huge gains in value, nobody is going to lose money. They may miss an opportunity, but in this field, there’s always another one around the corner anyways. If I call cards as potential breakouts and urge people to put money into them, I run the risk of people losing money because of something I said. When I have to decide between making safe choices that aren’t going to potentially harm people, and risky choices that could end up burning someone, I’m going to take the former every time. The numbers I used reflected this philosophy. I did try and acknowledge possible price surges in the discussion of the cards, away from the numbers, but I don’t think I did a good enough job. Starting with MTG Origins, I’m going to change how I handle set reviews so that it doesn’t take you forty-five minutes to read them, and so that I can explore possible price trajectories without worrying about the fallout.

There were a handful of cards last week that I didn’t discuss, but that stood out to me as unique and interesting cards. This week I want to double back and take a look at those cards, exploring each, and discussing what the prices could look like.

Mirror Mockery
We’ve seen plenty of Clone effects in the past, and typically they’re too expensive for anyone to care. Even ones that are relatively pushed, like Clever Impersonator, aren’t quite right for Standard. In fact, the last time a playable clone effect was in Standard was when Phantasmal Image was around some number of years ago. Here we are now with Mirror Mockery, another clone (sort of) with a converted mana cost of two.

Level zero is putting this on one of your creatures that you want to create additional copies of. Casting this on your Siege Rhino means you get the drain trigger every turn, although that’s possibly the greediest line imaginable, both in mana and in play. It’s going to be excellent on any creature of yours that leaves tokens behind, such as Hornet Queen. Four free insects every time you swing with the queen is absurd, although one wonders how many times you need to do that to win the game. The hard part tends to be getting her into play in the first place.

Moving over to creatures of the same color, things are a bit more sane. Sticking this on your Master of Waves and then swinging in without fearing his death is what dreams are made of. This is unlikely to come up often though, as your opponent would have to basically be on Mono-Red in order to make attacking with Master safe. I also like it on Profaner of the Dead, another card we’ll talk about soon. Every time you swing with your real Profaner, you get a copy, which you can then use to exploit itself to Upheaval all their two-toughness creatures. This is useful, although perhaps not necessarily enough.

Whenever you cast Mockery targeting your own creature, you’re setting yourself up for a blowout. Your opponent removes your Master of Waves in response, and now you’ve handed them over a 2-for-1.

What if we enchant their creature though? This is why Mockery is worth talking about. Casting it on your opponent’s Rhino means that now they can’t profitably attack with it. They do so at a loss in fact, because of the trigger and the ability to block with the token. If they remove the Rhino in response to your Mockery, then that’s fine – you just destroyed a creature for 1U. When it isn’t a Rhino, it can be a Rabblemaster, or a Stormbreath, or a Tasigur. All of these effectively blank the creature as an attacker, and in the case of ETB creatures like Rhino, you even gain an advantage. Did your opponent just cast Elder Dragon Atarka? Hit her with Mockery and dare them to attack.

None of these situations are likely to be frequent enough on their own to matter, but the culmination of them may warrant enough useful situations to break through. A card that you are capable of getting value from on your own creatures, while also acting as an excellent deterrent against some of your opponent’s threats may be enough to push this into Standard play. We aren’t looking at $7 here, but $2 or $3 is quite possible. These are $1 right now so I’m passing, but if they get into the $.10 – $.20 range, I’ll consider picking up a few sets and taking them as throw-ins. If I get them at $.20 and they jump to $2.00 I’m unlikely to bother selling/buylisting them, but I’ll gladly trade them as $8 playsets.

Profaner of the Dead
Profaner offers a unique trigger that we don’t see often. His Exploit has the potential to force an opponent to pick up their entire board, which is an obscene tempo play. At first I dismissed him because it’s not “or equal to.” If you sacrifice Profaner, who has three toughness, they don’t have to pick up their own three toughness creatures. Only two toughness and below. That’s unfortunate. Notice, though, that I say toughness, not power. When I first read this I thought it was power, and so wasn’t too excited. Everyone is typically trying to play creatures with as high a power as possible, so the competition is fierce. Toughness though? Pfft. You can win that fight hands down. Dragon’s Eye Savants is an 0/6 for two. Two! That hits Siege Rhino, Tasigur, Polukranos, Courser of Kruphix…really, what doesn’t that hit? This isn’t even counting using cards like Triton Tactics. If you can find any extra way to get value out of that Tactics other than just increasing the value of your Profaner’s trigger, you’re in business.

Maybe Mono-Blue wants it, maybe there’s another list out there in the market for that type of effect. I don’t know. What I do know is that upheaving your opponent’s entire board is disgusting, and the last time we had that available to us, it was Cyclonic Rift and it cost seven, not four, and didn’t leave a body behind. Profaner is unfortunately a one-of in the intro decks, so his price is capped, but we can treat him just as we can Mirror Mockery. Grap them at dirt cheap prices, and if there’s a bump in price, trade playsets for more stable cards.

Stratus Dancer
I’m the first to admit that I’m not necessarily the best at properly evaluating counterspells. I thought Plasm Capture was going to be playable in Standard, although in my defense, not a single Simic card ended up mattering whatsoever. While I’m not bad at figuring out if removal will be playable, countermagic is tougher for me.

That said, Stratus Dancer is quite respectable. I generally think that the megamorph costs are too high to be Standard playable once you factor in the fact that you have to spend three to play them face down, but Dancer’s is one of the cheapest of the bunch. Perhaps the better way to think about it isn’t that she’s a five mana Negate, but rather a five mana Muddle the Mixture that comes with a 3/2 flyer attached. Stopping their Crux of Fate while turning your bear into an insectile aberration is quite the tempo swing indeed.

With Mono-Blue in the discussion again, especially after the reveal of Silumgar Sorcerer, Stratus Dancer will have an immediate home. A 2/1 flyer for two isn’t exciting, but it’s passable, and that means that drawing two in your opening hand stills allows you to play a threat on turn two and turn three. Breaking out beyond Mono-Blue will be tougher, though still very possible. Unlike Profaner of the Dead, she isn’t in an intro deck, so theoretically the sky’s the limit here. Under $1 I’ll be trading for copies since the risk is so low and the ceiling is so high.

Dragon Tempest
At $2+, there is certainly a market out there for this card. It will likely be hanging around the fringes of Standard for months at FNM, and I’m sure Conley or TWoo will take a crack at it at some point. It will also have a solid casual following, as they have no trouble with enchantments that don’t do anything when they resolve. That alone is likely to keep this out of the complete bulk bin.

Where Tempest gets exciting is when you consider it as sort of a Valakut-esque combo piece. With a Tempest in play, any time you can dump a pile of dragons into play all at once it becomes a huge burst of damage immediately. In fact, five dragons at once is twenty-five damage – more than enough to kill someone in one shot, and that’s without even attacking. “Well duh” you say sarcastically. “As if you need help killing someone when you put five hasty dragons into play.” Listen up smartass. Without Tempest, they can just untap and wrath away all your hard work, or maybe they have that new stupid token-crushing sideboard card Virulent Plague to turn your army of dragons into an army of bears. “By the way, where are you even getting all those dragons from at once?” Right here, bucko.

Dragon Tempest alongside Descent of Dragons represents a powerful mid-game and late-game engine. In the midgame, Tempest gives all your flying threats haste, one of the most powerful keywords in the game, while also occasionally getting to zap something for free. Even just picking off errant Elvish Mystics is useful, and getting to take out a Mentor or Rabblemaster while swinging for four is going to be glee-inducing. With Descent hanging around you’re at the same time threatening a huge game-ender. While tokens are the immediate go-to for Descent, they don’t need to be. Elvish Mystics, Sylvan Caryatids, Courser of Kruphixs, and whatever other motley assortment of small red and green creatures you bring to the party will serve just fine as dragon fodder. Tempest makes your Descent that much more dangerous.

I’m going to watching Tempest for a few weeks to get a feel its price without much of a play pattern. I’m wondering if this is possible of really being less than $1. Once we get a few weeks in and this has settled, I’ll probably look for opportunities to snag them up. If it does indeed break out in Standard it will represent a solid profit to be realized in trade, and if it doesn’t, copies will be good to stash for awhile while they soak up casual demand.

Assault Formation
Let’s talk about this card line by line. The first ability, which will forever be known as “Dorans your team,” means that all your dudes deal damage based on toughness, not on power. With the actual card Doran, this would lead to the same stalemates that already existed. While our 4/5 Tarmogoyfs would just bounce off each other before, now they will trade. The same will occur with Tasigurs and such. With Assault Formation though, it’s not all creatures. Rather, it’s your creatures. There’s no more equality there – your Siege Rhinos are 5/5s and theirs are 4/5s. Your Courser of Kruphix is a 4/4, theirs is a 2/4. Your Sylvan Caryatid is a hexproof 3/3, theirs is a 0/3. That’s pretty busted. It gets even more absurd when you consider that toughness is way cheaper than power is. Remember when I talked about Profaner of the Dead earlier, and that you could buy Dragon’s Eye Savants, an 0/6, for two mana? That’s a 6/6 for two with Assault Formation in play. Silumgar, Drifting Death? 7/7. Torrent Elemental is a 5/5. Sultai Soothsayer is a 5/5 for five that helps you find Formation if you don’t already have it.

G to Rolling Stones your guys means that you don’t have to worry about playing Wall of Mulch or Caryatid or Wall of Frost. You’re free to play the all the defenders with the most absurd power to toughness ratios. You eat a little bit of tempo here, since you need precious spare mana to attack on turns four through six, but when you do end up swinging with 6/6s and 7/7s, I’m not sure that will matter all that much. Honestly we’re unlikely to need this ability too much, since we’d rather not be forced into a situation that absolutely requires us to have Formation in play to attack, but it’s good to have as an option. At the very least it makes our Caryatids viable threats, something I’ve found myself wishing for many times in the past.

Finally, we have 2G: +1/+1 your team. Repeatedly. The mythic Purphoros, God of the Forge has something similar for 2R, although it doesn’t boost toughness. Sunblade Elf gives you the same effect at a much pricier 4W. If you weren’t already winning combat before, this means that it’s going to be near impossible for your opponent to beat you in the red zone.

What really excites me about Assault Formation is that Commune with the Gods is still legal. You get to look at the top five for a threat or your enabler? Jeeeeeez. AND fill up your graveyard for Tasigur? JEEEEEEEEEEZ.

Assault Formation may even break into Modern. One of the roughest parts of Doran decks in the past has been that you’re incentivized to play creatures with high toughness, but without Doran they’re overall less effective. With Formation floating around you now have additional copies if you need them. I doubt you’re playing all four, but just having the fifth or sixth may be enough. Having a good reason to play four maindeck Spellskite is just the bee’s knees.

I can’t say that I’m expecting this to be a big winner, since if I was, I would have said so last week. It is still an enchantment that wants you to play worse cards. Part of why I put it in bulk last week was because I try to temper my own excitement over green cards though, so if I’m right, and this card really is as powerful as I think it may be, then we could have a $5-$15 card on our hands. Once this is below $1 I’ll begin grabbing copies where I can.

Collected Company
This is one of the toughest cards in the set to figure out. On the one hand, the power level is clearly there. For four mana, at instant speed, you can potentially put six total mana worth of bodies into play. That’s no joke. During your opponent’s attacks, cast Company, flipping Eternal Witness and Tarmogoyf, getting back the Company? Yes I would like some of that please.

It’s what happens when things don’t go perfectly that we’ve got to wonder about. For instance, what if you only hit one creature? If you paid an extra mana to instant-speed a three-drop that’s probably totally fine, but what if it’s just an Elvish Mystic? That feels a lot crummier. And how about missing entirely? Especially if you opted not to play a creature in hand in order to set up the double threat? You’d probably pick up your cards, throw them in the nearest garbage can, and drive into the sea.

We come to a point where it’s a numbers game. How many hits do you need in your deck to be worth it, and is that number reasonable? According to this breakdown by Reddit user Mango_Punch, you need twenty creatures for a 66% chance to hit on two, and twenty-four for an 80% chance. In Modern the only deck running nearly enough creatures to even consider this is Wilt-Leaf Abzan, and that’s at twenty hits. There’s nothing in Standard that comes anywhere close to hitting twenty targets right now, which is worth talking about for a moment.

If Collected Company does in fact prove to be a real card, I expect it to be in Modern or Legacy, not Standard. Mana costs are too stratified in Standard for this to be as powerful as it is elsewhere. When cards like Siege Rhino, Tasigur, Stormbreath Dragon and Whisperwood Elemental are key players, Collected Company just feels weak. This is important for understanding pricing. If the card is only playable in eternal formats, it will be near impossible to sustain prices north of $5. I guess Abrupt Decay managed to be expensive while not seeing much play in Standard? There’s no way Company will hit that level of play though.

I will point out one potential application of this in Modern that may be worth exploring. You all remember the Melira combo from Pod decks: Melira, Kitchen Finks, and Viscera Seer. Well it turns out the new Anafenza does a very good Melira impression when it comes to undoing Persist triggers, and is overall a better creature to boot. In fact, if your goal is strictly to combo, you’ve got a lot of redundancy now. You’ve got eight enablers (Melira, Anafenza), eight Persist creatures (Finks, Murderous Redcap), and eight sacrifice outlets (Seer, Bloodthrone Vampire). Eight of each combo piece is one heck of a lot of redundancy, and aside from Redcap, they’re all three mana or less for Collected Company. I have no idea what the correct list looks like, but it’s interesting to consider that at some point it may simply be more profitable to just ram the combo down your opponent’s throat every turn without fear and require them to have an answer every time, because whatever they kill you have more copies of lying in wait.

Overall I have trouble picturing Collected Company hitting big numbers. I’m very dubious of it performing well enough in Standard, and I doubt that it is strong enough to become a tier one card in any other formats. And even if it does, will that be enough to push an in-print rare north of $5? Unlikely. Still, I like this at bulk prices. We could see the $.20 to $2.00 play here at some point, and even if we don’t, it will be worth stashing for the long term. Two or three years down the road this may actually pop in Modern.

I’ve got an additional treat for everyone that read the last 3,000 words and found themselves still wanting more. The folks over at Wizard Foundry contacted me and asked me to review an Alpha Edition Grimoire Deck Box. I don’t see much in the way of written reviews of Magic-related products, so I figured we could give it a shot. This is a trial run, and if there’s positive feedback, we’ll consider being more open to this type of thing in the future.

Wizard Foundry provided me with the Grimoire, but no money changed hands. I am not being paid for my opinion. I made it perfectly clear to their staff that this review will be 100% unbiased. That said, let’s jump in.

The Grimoire Deck Box is a foray into the world of luxury Magic accessories, a market seemingly under-served. There’s custom playmats of course, custom sleeves (which as I understand it are all awful), and nifty die. Beyond that, there isn’t too much ostentatious accessorizing in our hobby, relative to many other activities people pursue for entertainment. For an immediately adjacent comparison, think about how much video game related crap is out there. T-shirts, sweaters, hats, belts, belt buckles, backpacks, action figures, display figures, statues, stickers, binders, bed sheets. Your entire apartment could be Mushroom Kingdom-themed if you felt it necessary.

Grimoires are intended to be stylized storage containers. Ideally the appearance will evoke an image of being a grey-haired wiry wizard carrying around comically over sized dusty tomes that hold ancient writings describing arcane or forbidden arts. I’d make a comparison to a Harry Potter character here, but I only saw the first movie, so I wouldn’t know who to pick. Just imagine I referenced a character that fits that description. Great.

What struck me most when I pulled the Grimoire out of its cardboard shipping box was how large and sturdy it is. I had seen pictures, but for some reason it hadn’t clicked. It’s got a real heft to it. You’ll see in the comparison photo that’s larger than the common UltraPro or Monster nine-sleeve binders. Not only is it that long and wide, it’s also quite deep. All this adds up to a serious profile that can’t be missed when it’s sitting on a table.

Getting in close, the outside is covered with a sort of faux leather, although not in the same way your jacket from Wilson’s Leather is fake. Rather it’s meant to look like an old important book’s leather, heavily textured and tight. It’s likely a bit less durable of a material than the resilient plastic of my UltraPro binder, but then again, my UltraPro wouldn’t look nearly as good on a bookshelf. The box itself is composed of a compressed plywood or something to that effect. It’s solid and hard to the touch; much more so than my trade binder with the stiff cardboard cover is. Really the proper way to think of this thing is as a big wood box that has some leather wrapped around it. There’s no plastic anywhere to be found here, which gives it that sense of quality that heavier objects tend to impart. At over two pounds, you’re going to notice every time you pick it up.

For those of you worried about how well this will hold up to errant spills perpetrated by careless elbows, have no fear. I poured a fair bit of water on the cover and there was absolutely no absorption. Half a paper towel picked up most of it, and I finished drying it off with my sweater sleeve. Ten minutes later you’d never know it was wet. I’m sure that if it gets coated in Mountain Dew it’s going to end up sticky, but a damp paper cloth should clean that right up.

The front cover slash lid is held shut by a pair of small magnets. I had the good fortune of finding someone at my local store who has owned one of these Alpha editions for a while, and his experience is that it is not the most reliable closure system. They are still in use on the Beta edition as well, although the 3rd edition that is in pre-order right now seems to do away with the magnets in favor of a physical clasp that I’d imagine is more satisfactory. As is the lid doesn’t fly open randomly, but it will absolutely open if tilted forward with decks inside.

I find myself impressed with how well the lid handles pressure in the wrong direction, such as if a child hung on a refrigerator door. There’s no give when pushed or pulled, which is reassuring. My large trade binder is not far from losing it’s front cover after a year of constant in and out of my backpack. I get the impression that this Grimoire would hold up much better than that flimsy sports card binder in that regard. One thing does worry me though, and that’s the danger of over-opening the lid. Opened on a flat surface the lid doesn’t touch the table, and instead hangs an inch or two above. A careless observer or eager child may lean on the cover, and while I’m not sure if the result would only be ripped fabric or if the entire lid would separate, but either way, you wouldn’t be happy. You’ll need to be careful about opening it with unbridled enthusiasm. Flipping the cover open without restraint will strain the binding at least. With the Alpha edition, it will need to be slow and controlled access at all times. As it stands, this is my largest structural concern. I would hope that future editions are engineered such that it’s not so easy to damage the cover’s hinge.

Velvet lines the bisected compartment, and you aren’t worried about putting sleeved cards in here. The interior is clean and mostly smooth. I would be comfortable using a Grimoire to store a powered cube, although I would probably seek to move the power away from the ends of the rows, just in case. A wooden panel divides the compartment, and it is removable with a bit of effort. I doubt this will come up often, though it’s nice to know that the option exists.

How does it function for its intended purpose? Check out the photo below to see how much it can hold. You could fit ten seventy-five card decks in here, or six of the UltraPro Pro-Deck boxes that are designed to hold Commander decks. Wizard Foundry’s website claims that it holds 800 cards with double sleeves, which I believe. I put all my currently sleeved decks in, about 325 cards, roughly half double sleeved, and they did not fill an entire row. I’d say 800 double sleeved cards for the entire box is not an unfair number, although that may end up being rather snug. At the end of the day you can fit a lot of stuff in this box. The avid Commander player could fit three or four decks in here along with a stack of tokens, dice, life pads, and whatever other small trinkets they feel compelled to bring along. In fact, you could easily fit a typical 12oz bottle in one of the rows. Perhaps that is how best this box could be used – to hide precious bottles of Goose Island Bourbon County Stout on your bookshelf, away from thirsty eyes.

My overall reaction to the Grimoire Deck Box has actually been very similar to my original reaction to the iPad. It’s great at doing exactly what it’s meant to do – but is that something that needs doing? In my life, at least, the iPad doesn’t fill any particular hole. Between my phone, laptop, and desktop, I don’t find myself in any situations that a tablet would be useful to me. Similarly, I’m not sure exactly how to fit this Grimoire into my Magic collection. It would be unquestionably useful to me if I had a cube, but I don’t. I never keep more than two EDH decks together unlike other writers here on MTGPrice. It exists in this odd space of being too large for any purpose I have for it, while also not fitting into my standard Magic backpack layout. I never leave the house without my trade binder, and as such my backpack is already heavy and short on space. Beyond my trade binder I typically carry only a deck box and perhaps a fatpack with some other odds and ends, and while the Grimoire could hold both the deck box and fatpack contents, I could never fit it into my bag alongside my trade binder. By virtue of its size – which is necessary to hold heaps of EDH decks or cubes – I find myself without cause to bring it out of my house.

This is a personal issue, of course. If you own a cube or you love to carry multiple decks with you, you’ve already committed the space in your bag to those items. The Grimoire would do an excellent job of keeping that all neat and tidy in a package that’s sure to spark conversation, so if you’ve been looking for a vessel, this is for you. If you’re like me, and only tend to carry one to two decks at a time along with an omnipresent trade binder, this may end up not servicing any of your needs. Wizard Foundry isn’t unaware of this though, as they’ve recently begun a Kickstarter campaign for a new model that’s much smaller. I obviously don’t have the new model in my hands, so I can’t comment very specifically on it, but it does seems to be a much more manageable size. I get tired of having my Modern deck, two Tiny Leaders decks, a small dice bag, and a plastic case for ‘in process’ cards all floating around in my bag. If I could shove all of those into one of the newer, smaller models, I think I’d be pleased.

At $75 each these are not a cheap addition to your inventory. I of course can’t tell you whether it’s worth it, as that’s a personal decision, but I would think that for someone with thousands and thousands of dollars worth of cards wrapped up in EDH decks or a cube, you wouldn’t mind shelling out a bit for a sturdy case. I did find the comment in the video amusing that the guy is tired of storing all of his cards in those flimsy cardboard 1000-count boxes. If I transferred all of my cards from run-of-the-mill card boxes into Grimoires, it would probably run me over $2,000. I wouldn’t recommend replacing your $1.50 longbox full of bulk rares with a Grimoire.

If you’re a cube owner or an avid EDH player, I wouldn’t hesitate to point you in the direction of the Grimoire line. You’re the type of person that’s already carrying around hundreds of cards intended for play, and the protection and style offered by the Grimoire is likely to be right up your alley. If you’re like me, always dragging a trade binder around with no more than one or two deck boxes, you may want to turn your attention towards the Kickstarter for the smaller profile box rather than the full size ones available now.

The Gilded Goblin

Uncommons and Commons of Dragons of Tarkir

March 23, 2015 Jared Yost 2 Comments

By: Jared Yost

This week I’ll be looking at the uncommons and commons in Dragons of Tarkir to analyze their power and see if any have financial value. First though, you should check out the 7000+ word coverage that Travis offered us for the mythics and rares of the set. Though the comments on the article and the Reddit posting may be contentious, I think it’s a great read in order to understand the near future values of the mythics and rares. Since we’re still in the preorder honeymoon phase, card prices are pretty wacky right now. Travis takes them back down to Earth and reminds us that the average value of a box needs to reach a certain equilibrium as more boxes are opened on the market.

Now that we’re caught up on the status of the mythics and rares, let’s get cracking. Of course, I’ll need to cover some ground rules like I’ve done for Fate Reforged.

Since covering just the mythics and rares was such a massive undertaking, Travis tasked me with covering the remaining uncommons and commons in the set that seem powerful enough to see Standard, Modern, Legacy, and even Cube or Vintage play. I’ll stick to Travis’ original article format for this and list out the uncommons and commons I like in the following order:

White
Blue
Black
Red
Green
Multicolored
Artifact
Land

I will not list the uncommons/commons that are bulk, since most uncommons/commons will be bulk and only a select few will wind up seeing tournament play. Also keep in mind that it is really hard for an uncommon to break a $2. Unless the uncommon is insane, then it will almost never be worth more than $2 even at the height of its Standard play. Don’t go around picking up tons of chase uncommons expecting them to spike in price during their Standard life. If an uncommon is really good also expect it to be in an event deck or other supplementary product, furthering the chance none of us will profit from it financially.

I think the best mind set to be in while reviewing uncommons and commons from a financial perspective is to think about the best way to pick them up cheaper than retail, which usually is to set them aside when you crack them or draft them so that you don’t later have to buy these cards at retail prices when you need them for a deck. Foils are nice pick ups for eternal playable uncommons and commons if they are powerful enough to be included in Modern, Legacy, or even Vintage decks. Many times I will prefer to pick up foil copies as they will retain more value in the long term.

Alright, let’s dive into the uncommons and commons in Dragons of Tarkir.

White

Aven Sunstriker
Boy, Skyhunter Skirmisher has come a long way huh? While his Standard applications are questionable at best, I could see it slotting into a warrior deck after Theros rotates from Standard. What I really like the Sunstriker for is Commander or Cube, especially since players are still buying the Forged in Stone deck. Skyhunter Skirmisher is in this deck and this card is an obvious upgrade. Finally, another reason to like this card is because casuals love cheap bodies, with evasion, that can quickly kill an opponent.

Dragon Hunter
Like Sunstriker above, I feel that this card could have a home in a future warriors Standard build. It actually has a stronger case for inclusion, as it has relevant protection in a format with Dragons and is an important one drop that is needed to curve out nicely. However, that warriors deck may never actually materialize. Mardu Woe-Reaper is much better than this card and doesn’t see a lick of play yet. Who knows, maybe Magic Origins will give us more warrior support since it is a pretty generic tribe and we might get a lord in that set, but otherwise this cards future is tenable at best. Still, I’m going to be setting aside all the copies I get since I feel that warriors is on track to become something in Standard.

Graceblade Artisan
Certainly a weaker Kor Spiritdancer, however that doesn’t mean that casuals won’t eat this card up. Setting our extra copies aside could mean that we’ll be pleasantly surprised in the future.

Orator of Ojutai (and the other four uncommon Dragons of Tarkir “dragons in hand matters” cards)
The “dragons in hand matters” cards might be decent in Standard, however I have a feeling that they’re only going to have a main purpose in limited. Now, if this was a Wall of Omens with flying, this card would be absolutely bonkers. As it is, dragons usually cost too much in Standard to make it worth wanting to play enough of them to be able to draw a card if you play this on turn two. It could have Standard potential but this is more speculation than anything else. I’ll be watching to see if players can make this card work well in Standard.

Silkwrap
This might actually be usable in Standard since the format is so fast. The only reason Suspension Field isn’t heavily played is because you can’t play it on curve in order to better use it as removal. Silkwrap will pretty much always be played on curve if you have it, though of course it is terrible in the late game when you are in topdecking mode. Not sure if it will make the cut in Standard, though it can’t hurt to set some aside just in case.

Surge of Righteousness (and the other four uncommon Dragons of Tarkir color hosers)
Looks like we’ve received some color hoser cards in Dragons of Tarkir in addition to Theros. Color hosers are cards specifically printed to be sideboard cards, in case any one particular color becomes too powerful in the format. While Theros gave us color hosers that affected the same color (see Dark Betrayal and others), Dragons of Tarkir went back to a more traditional route of having the color hosers affect enemy colors.

These particular color hosers are great because they affect two colors, not just one. I think this means we’ll be seeing them over their Standard life in sideboards to represent the state of the current metagame. Definitely keep all the color hosers you get from this set and set them aside – any one of them could be good going into the near future and throughout their Standard life.

Blue

Anticipate
I think that Anticipate has a good chance of seeing Standard play somewhere. Yes, it’s a terrible Impulse and we already have Dig Through Time, Sultai Charm, and Jace’s Ingenuity, yet more card selection usually isn’t a bad thing. This might even slot itself into a new combo deck or even U/W Heroic. I’ll be setting my extra copies aside, if not for this Standard than post-Theros Standard or even Modern.

Encase in Ice
See my review of Surge of Righteousness above, in the white section.

Gudul Lurker
Wow, who knew that Triton Shorestalker needed an upgrade already? Definitely a possible inclusion in Mono Blue Devotion, which may be revived now that we have Shorecrasher Elemental. Since it has Megamorph, you can get extra value out of it if the game goes late, which bumps Shorestalker out of the list and slots this in. Even if Standard doesn’t pan out for this card, it is sure to be a casual hit and is definitely a cube worthy if anything else.

Silumgar Sorcerer
Speaking of mono blue devotion, Silumgar Sorcerer would fit well into this strategy. Keep in mind that Exploit is a “may” effect – you can just as easily keep your mana open to counter a creature spell as to cast this as a 2/1 with flying and flash. That’s some nice value, and a good way of playing Jedi mind tricks with your opponent. Now in Standard, when you draw, play a land, and say go in blue everyone is going to need to consider this card.

I have a feeling that this is one of the better uncommons of the set.

Black

Blood-Chin Rager
Wow, now this is the two mana 2/2 that warriors have always wanted! Efficiently costed creature, in a relevant creature type, that grants semi-evasion to the rest of your warriors when it attacks? I think this card is pretty good and will be seen in warriors if the deck starts popping up in Standard.

Duress
Even though it has been printed into oblivion, Duress will always be worth something on a buylist. Stock your extra copies away, especially foils, and you might be able to cash them out or use them favorably in a trade in the future.

Self-Inflicted Wound
See my review of Surge of Righteousness above, in the white section.

Shambling Goblin
Shambling Goblin is a pretty decent 1/1, since it can trade up into x/2’s and sometimes two-for-one your opponent if they have two x/1’s out on the field. Though it is only a common, I feel like it is one of the better commons in the set.

Ultimate Price
Though Khans was wedge themed, and we’re still seeing plenty of multicolored creature in Standard, there are also plenty of mono-colored targets out there for Ultimate Price. Two mana removal spells in black have always been played heavily in Standard, and this time it will see play again. Definitely one of the best uncommons in the set and will eventually go up to $1-$2 and stay there for its Standard life.

Virulent Plague
Unless Standard becomes swarmed with tokens left and right, this is almost always just going to be in sideboards. Still though, it is an awesome sideboard card, and should be worth something. $0.50 will most likely be the peak since the effect is pretty narrow.

Draconic Roar
See my review of Orator of Ojutai in White. Though I will say that this is one of the better “dragons in hands matters” cards in the set since most of the better dragons are red. If you can activate both modes on this card it will be a pretty huge beating for your opponent.

Dragon Fodder
Even with several reprints, like Duress this is a casual favorite so it will always be worth something on a buylist. It might even see Standard play, so that could further bolster its price in the future.

Dragonlord’s Servant
Like Douglass Johnson, I believe that this is one of the best casual specs in the entire set. Dragonspeaker Shaman is a very popular card amongst dragon enthusiasts, and this guy fits right along curve at two mana into a three mana Shaman. I would definitely target foils of this card because they will be seen in dragon themed Commander decks all the time.

Rending Volley

See my review of Surge of Righteousness above, in the white section.

Sarkhan’s Triumph
If Dragonlord’s Servant is one of the best casual specs of the set, then this is the number one casual spec in Dragons of Tarkir. An instant speed dragon tutor? What more could Scion of Ur-Dragon players ask for in their deck. A staple in any red dragon themed commander deck from this point out. Foils will be especially nice targets.

Twin Bolt
Maybe I like this card too much because it’s Forked Bolt for one mana more, but that one mana more makes all the difference. Being instant speed does matter, though I still think that doesn’t make up for it costing two mana. Not sure if it will be good enough to be played in Standard but it could be a good sideboard against token strategies if you’re not playing black for Virulent Plague. I think this will be a nice casual card if anything.

Green

Ainok Survivalist
A nice sideboard card, if anything else. This will keep the Survivalist above bulk at least. I really like this as an addition to Cubes, so I think foils are good targets.

Display of Dominance
See my review of Surge of Righteousness in White. I will say that I think this is the weakest of the color hosers for now, so in my opinion I think it has the lowest chance of seeing Standard play in the current environment. In the future though it could be great.

Explosive Vegetation
Though Explosive Vegetation has had two other reprints, it is still usually above $1. The Dragons of Tarkir version will pretty much always be worth at least $0.40, so extra copies should easily be able to be shipped to buylists or offered in trades. I would target foils, as the the only other foil version of the card we’ve had so far is the Onslaught version. Dragons of Tarkir foils can be had for a fraction of the Onslaught foil price. Due to Commander demand, I expect the foil versions of DoT Explosive Vegetation to creep up over time.

Scaleguard Sentinels
See my review of Orator of Ojutai in White. Scaleguard Sentinels is pretty awesome if you can get the +1/+1 counter – a 3/4 for two green is super efficient, even for Standard.

Multicolored

Multicolored Uncommon Dragon Cycle
Out of the five, the weakest are Cunning Breezedancer and Enduring Scalelord. Their effects are only really good in limited, whereas the other dragons will be nice inclusions in Commander decks. Ruthless Deathfang could be slotted into a blue/black Zombies build with for example Grimgrin, Corpse-Born as commander or another U/B deck that utilizes sacrifice effects. Savage Ventmaw has a neat interaction with the enchantment Aggravated Assault, where you can have infinite attack phases. Finally Swift Warkite has a nice recursion ability (or sneak ability if you’re putting something into play from your hand) that allows you to keep putting creatures into play for enters the battlefield triggers.

Ranked:
1) Savage Ventmaw
2) Swift Warkite
3) Ruthless Deathfang
4) Cunning Breezedancer and Enduring Scalelord

Artifacts & Lands

Dragon Monuments
The monuments will always have a place in Commander, as they provide mana fixing and allow themselves to become 4/4 flying creatures until end of turn if needed. This is pretty nice in a format where board wipes are about as common as water. Though they’ll probably never be more than $0.25 each, I still expect buy lists will want to grab these every so often to fill Commander demands.

Summary

Here’s the top five uncommons and commons (by cycle, if applicable) in list format so that you know which uncommons and commons I think will hold the most financial value in Fate Reforged moving forward.

HONORABLE MENTION: Explosive Vegetation

Sarkhan’s Triumph
Dragonlord’s Servant
Silumgar Sorcerer
Color Hoser Cycle (Surge of Righteousness and others)
Ultimate Price

Here is my top five FOIL uncommons and commons (by cycle, if applicable)

Sarkhan’s Triumph
Dragonlord’s Servant
Explosive Vegetation
Multicolored Dragons (especially the UB, RG, and BR dragons)
Duress

Again, let me reiterate that I am not recommending that players buy thousands of these uncommons/commons en masse trying to make a profit by expecting them to spike. Uncommons and commons are notoriously slow to increase in price, if at all. It takes something like Delver of Secrets level of play to make that happen – and even then it was a few years before it really started going up in value.

I also hope this article will enable players to identify the more powerful uncommons and commons in the set so that they can pick them up for decks if they want to play them, and that it helps players building cubes to identify which foil uncommons and commons are best to pick up.

Casual Fridays

Casual Standouts from DTK

March 20, 2015 Cliff Daigle 3 Comments

By: Cliff Daigle

Dragons of Tarkir has no shortage of awesome cards. Some of these are build-around-me additions to a Cube, others will make waves in Tiny Leaders, and several seem to be designed for the kitchen table crowd. I am going to talk about a few of these, along with the price I’m comfortable getting in at. If something blows up in Standard or other Constructed format, my pricing will undoubtedly be off.

Anafenza, Kin-Tree Spirit – Sure, she’s amazing in Tiny Leaders, but she’s also an enabler in all sorts of White Weenie strategies. Her mana cost is probably the biggest thing holding her back, as it’s not easy to get double white on turn two. Pick her up for $1 or less.

Hidden Dragonslayer – The rule about Morphs in EDH or Cube was this: it’s either Exalted Angel or Willbender. Khans block has given us some amazing morphs, and this cycle of cheap, powerful Megamorphs might be among the best of all. Singleton formats are where you really want flexibility, and you have a range of useful things to do here. That said, I think this is another dollar rare.

Profound Journey – I had Obzedat’s Aid in my Kaalia deck for the longest time, and it’s…serviceable. It has been cut, and while this is potentially twice as powerful, it costs even more. What’s really going to bother you is how often you spend seven mana and get back something that costs a lot less. Bulk rare.

Radiant Purge – I think this might be one of the sneakier cards of the set. Two mana for an instant-speed exile effect is not to be undervalued. It’s true that it would be better if it said “Exile target multicolored permanent” but we just got Utter End for such universal applications. I think this will hold a price due to being a popular sideboard card in Standard, so around $2.

Secure the Wastes – Believe it or not, while we’ve had numerous versions of this effect before, we’ve never had one this cheap, especially as an instant! This is an auto-include in any EDH token strategy, and I think it’s good enough for Cube too. I’ll be especially interested in foils around four or five dollars.

Clone Legion – In case you forgot, Wizards R & D plays a lot of EDH. This is a neat way to either win more on your own awesome board, or play catch-up with just one card. This is not a Standard card, this is absolutely a haymaker, battlecruiser, giant Commander effect. This is going to be better than you think it is, no matter if you’re ahead, behind, or at parity. It’s not going to be bulk, but I’ll be surprised if it’s ever more than $2 in nonfoil.

Living Lore – Some people are going to try and make this good. Don’t be one of those people. Bulkiest of bulk, until some weird Legacy combo pops up.

Stratus Dancer – I think this card is good enough for Standard, though to be honest, I’m not someone who plays a lot of that. Nonetheless, every mode on this card seems good. A 2/1 flyer for two is a good starting point, and if you have the time and mana, holding up an uncounterable counterspell for their sweeper is pretty amazing. I like this a lot in Cube and Commander too. This might be the priciest of the cycle, at around $3.

Hedonist’s Trove – This basically gives you a second library to play cards from. There’s a lot to be said for effects like this, but the problem is that you have to do a lot of work to fill their graveyard. I love it, but I’m not going to try and play it. Bulk.

Blood-Chin Fanatic – Kresh the Bloodbraided has a new best friend. So does Hamletback Goliath. The pieces are there on a decent body for the price, but this will struggle to be more than a dollar or two.

Damnable Pact – There is a lot of fun to be had with these two modes. With a little mana, it’s a way to get a couple of cards. With lots of mana, it’s the finisher against people with low life or small libraries. It’s a surprisingly versatile spell, and should be considered in most decks. The card I’d measure it against is Diabolic Revelation, except that Revelation is a terrible card at less than seven, whereas there’s plenty of games I’d be happy to cast this for two or three. I think this will have a nice home around $2.

Virulent Plague – Hear me out. You should be giving serious consideration to playing this in most of your Commander/Tiny Leaders games. There’s very few tokens that can survive this without help, and mostly those are 3/3 Beasts and 4/4 Angels, which need to be cut down in size anyway. This is also an intriguing sideboard card in Modern, at least until Splinter Twin gets banned. I’ll be looking for foils of this around $1.50.

Descent of Dragons – I know that lots of people have fooled around with this, looking for combos that generate all sorts of advantages, but I’m thinking about how if I already have a bunch of creatures, I should be winning anyway. This is a mana less than Devout Invocation, and that’s a dollar mythic.

I think Descent’s price is going to open high on assorted hype and will trickle downward. I won’t be trying to get these until they fall to $5 or lower.

Impact Tremors – If you see someone lay this down on turn two in a Commander game, your target is acquired. This is half of the cost of Purphoros, for half the damage, so you’ll need twice as many tokens to be generated. Very doable. I’ll be watching for foils under $1.

Lightning Berserker – This card might be the real deal in mono-red decks. It also might not be. It’s not quite as durable as Monastery Swiftspear, but is there a better late topdeck? Perhaps the question is, would a red deck play this over Crater’s Claws? Some combination thereof? I think it’ll be worth picking these up in trades throughout the draft season, just in case.

Rending Volley – This might as well say “Best Sideboard Card Against Twin” on it. Spellskite can’t touch it, and it’s got Combust beaten by a full mana. I’m going to be looking for these around 50-75 cents, and I’m game for $5 foils. This is a very Cube-able card as well.

Roast – Yes, the damage can’t hit a flyer, and that’s a big mark against it. But everything else is amazing. Two mana! Who cares if it’s a sorcery, just get in there! Tasigur, Siege Rhino, you name the wingless problem and it’s solved. I feel good about this being about a dollar, and the foils should be around $5. This and Rending Volley might well be some very premium foils if eternal red decks decide it’s worth it.

Zurgo – He is who he is. He’s certainly not who he was. Poor guy. Stay away.

Assault Formation – Even in foil, I’m not interested. Rolling Stones has been a card for a long time, and neither of its foils can crack $5.

Inspiring Call – I meant to add this to last week’s piece, as this is something my Experiment Kraj deck wants very very badly in foil. I expect I’ll pay about $2 for that.

All Foil Commands – Be very wary of picking these up without having a specific plan in mind. Some of the multicolor modal cards are very high in foil, some are not. I want a foil Silumgar’s Command, and others will be wanting these in foil, but the key is in their eternal playability. Boros Charm is the best example, but even Golgari Charm is getting good mileage and expensive foils. I’m going to let the metagame sort the commands for me before I move in.

Accumulated Knowledge

Accumulated Knowledge 1 – Intro to History of Magic Finance

March 20, 2015 Ross Lennon 4 Comments

Hello! For those of you who don’t know me already, my name is Ross. Before we begin, I’d like to share my philosophy on Magic finance. I am not a store owner or vendor (although I have worked in the business before), and I have more than a decade of tournament experience. I have observed firsthand all of the changes that have influenced the course of Magic finance in the last ten years, and I prioritize teaching over telling. If I am able to give my readers a more firm understanding of what to look for and why, then they will be able to have continued success over the course of their gaming careers.

I believe strongly in long-term speculation rather than short-term targets (which is something we will discuss today), as well as catering your targets to your best fit, rather than attempting to mimic the successes of others. I also believe that the key to educating someone is by entertaining them as well, so I try to approach my writing with a light and approachable manner. Professionally, my work is in commercial insurance and risk assessment/management, so I typically identify loss potential as a major (if not the primary) factor in determining the potential of an investment. But enough about me, let’s get to work.

Magic writing (any kind of content on it, really) is often very ephemeral in nature. Cards rotate, formats phase in and out of popularity, players (and even writers) come into and out of phases of their life where the game is a priority. The reason why I personally enjoy the writing (and podcasting) of Mike Flores is that he has a wealth of background knowledge to help make comparisons between Magic‘s present and its past. Being able to anchor your present mindset with past experience makes for more structured and informed decision making. That is, of course, just one piece of the puzzle. Magic has changed drastically in the last several years, both in how the game is played, and who is playing it.

KEY CONCEPT: THE ZENDIKAR BOOM

I’d like to quickly explain what is perhaps the most important factor in Magic finance in the last several years. Beginning in 2009 (around the release of Magic 2010 and Zendikar), the active Magic player population began to grow at extraordinary numbers. This dynamic increase has continued ever since, and has created both increased demand for cards, as well as higher print runs for newer releases. We will synthesize this information later, but I wanted to get the definition out of the way now, because this is a crucial topic for financiers.

Even though Magic is over 20 years old, Magic finance is largely a new phenomenon. The early days of Magic writing were a mix of fascinating, if imperfect, ideas (“The Schools of Magic” is a personal favorite) and extremely rudimentary grasps of what was actually good (Do you realize Giant Trap Door Spider won a pro tour?!).

In the years since, Magic writing has improved exponentially, but much of Magic finance remains woefully underdeveloped by comparison. My goal over these next few weeks is to help explain and develop upon things that may not be overly apparent to those who are new to the game, as well as solidify the understanding of the more advanced.

I want to spend the rest of today discussing the Zendikar Boom, so that you can broaden out the scope of it to inform your decisions. It should be mentioned upfront that Wizards very rarely releases any type of solid numbers on things like player population or print run— the latter for various reasons, and the former because even their internal figures are rough at best (DCI numbers track active tournament players, but what percentage are they of the Magic-buying public¹?). When numbers are released, they are typically percentages, showing the increase or decrease in measurable metrics like sales or event participation.

Most of the population figures prior to Zendikar hover around the six million range. This number was thrown out in advertisements (and likely in early Hasbro acquisitions talks) as, “Join the game with over six million players worldwide!” Sometimes the number is seven million, sometimes five million, but the impression was that it was largely a static total number. Beginning in 2009, however, Magic suddenly began to show double digit growth, with percentages increasing around 25 percent annually. This means that by 2010, there were 7.5 million Magic players, definitely on the higher end of the fluctuations from 2000 until then. A 25 percent increase from there brought the population to roughly 9.375 million, the highest it has ever been.

It is important to understand how much of WOTC’s work is done in advance. Things like a set’s design begin more than two years in advance of its release, and even though printing happens much closer to getting the product on shelves, it is often determined on numbers arrived at much earlier. Many stores ran out of Zendikar product between the first and second printings. This indicates that there was insufficient quantity at the distributor level, not that a bunch of stores did really well.

Once can be a fluke, but twice and thrice may indicate a potential trend. In the Hasbro shareholder conference call for 2012 (fiscal year), they indicated that Magic had 25 percent growth for the last four years (2009, 2010, 2011, 2012). By just doing the same math we were doing before, we can guesstimate that Magic was at 11.7 million players in 2011, and beyond 14.6 million in 2012. In four years, the player population has added nearly ten million new people. Even if these numbers are fuzzy, the impact is not. If Zendikar was printed for six or seven million people, but now there are almost 15 million (other sources show “only” 12 million), what does that do to demand?

Now, when a set is in print, Wizards can always run more off the presses—even though the entire process is outsourced, the company is still able to get a few extra waves of product out after the official release. Any set that was no longer in print at the release of Zendikar, however, was done. Those sets, by the standards of the next few years, were extremely under-printed. Return to Ravnica, which had a much higher printing than Zendikar, had the same problem with running out of product before the release of the second wave (although not to as noticeable a degree). The annual percentage Hasbro has shown have all remained positive (showing growth), although if I recall correctly, this year’s was below double digits for the first time (six percent). That percentage increase is small, but the overall number behind it is still a massive amount of new players.

The most immediate impact this has is pressuring on the supply-side of any card printed before the Boom. Even if the percentage of demand stays the same (say, nine percent of all Magic players want a playset of Guttural Response), the actual number behind that percentage may have doubled. Not all of those players are going to transition into Legacy (or even sanctioned play), but how many of them want Underground Seas? The before and after on popular commons and uncommons from Modern Masters shows the impact an increase in supply can have on cards that fit our interests. It’s also why cards like Sleight of Hand (which had multiple printings!) are able to get high prices even at common. If you are looking for smart buys, they should most likely be from before the Boom impacted printing. Of course, unlike Guttural Response, which I mentioned just a minute ago, it should be a card people actually want.

The flip side, of course, is understanding what things to actively stay away from. While I would not say that newer cards are worth avoiding all together, you have to have a good reason and a better price. My personal baseline is $3 (the price of an in-print booster pack at my LGS). I like Rest in Peace as a card that sees play in both Modern and Legacy (as well as Commander, Vintage, Cube, Tiny Leaders, and whatever weird format has been invented since I sent this to my editor), and I can get two for the price of a booster. When considering cards from the last two or three years, you really have to have a clear idea of future potential to offset the huge amount of supply compared to cards from six or more years ago.

That’s all we are going to have time for today. Let me know what your thoughts are in the comments or on the forums. and I’m excited to be a member of MTGPrice!

Best,

Ross

1We will definitely talk about what Rosewater and company call “The Invisibles” next week.

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