Finding Value, ProTrader, Unlocked ProTrader

UNLOCKED PROTRADER: My Bets for GP Charlotte

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By: Guo Heng

So much for taking notes during last weekend’s Star City Games’s first ever Modern Invitational in Columbus. Two of the cards that were sorely undervalued upon the conclusion of the Invitational—Olivia Voldaren and Huntmaster of the Fells—spiked fast and hard over the last few days, forcing me to change my initial plan for today’s column. Instead of discussing four cards I think will emerge more expensive by this time next week, I am going to talk about two things today:

  1. Will Olivia and Huntmaster remain at their lofty new prices?
  2. My bet for the archetype that would be performing the best at Grand Prix Charlotte and the card that would spike with it.

The New Jund Overlords

One creature to rule them all.

First off, we have a new queen in Jund. Olivia Voldaren saw some play back when the deck dominated the format, in an era when Birthing Pod was legal, but she wasn’t as powerful back then as she is today in a metagame full of grindy creatures and Lingering Souls. An unanswered Olivia takes over any creature-based matchup and she is not exactly easy to answer if deployed properly (a.k.a. with 1R open to grow her toughness to four in response to Lightning Bolt).

Olivia was hovering at $6.60 when the Invitational concluded and spiked hard over the next few days to the $17.32 she is at today. Is her $17 price tag justified for a card that sees play as a two-of in the 75 of Jund and occasionally as a one-of in Grixis Twin‘s sideboard?

My answer is yes. She is a mythic from Innistrad, which was opened nearly four years ago (how time has passed!), so it’s probably about time that Olivia’s price hits double-digits as a mythic that sees Modern play. Olivia seems to be a trump card in grindy creature matchups and fits in any decks that runs BR and wants to grind out the long game.

I don’t think $17 is the ceiling for Olivia if Jund continues to perform this weekend or if Grixis Twin starts to adopt her as a sideboard mainstay. On the other hand, Olivia is at most played in twos and that limits her price ceiling. I’d say $25 is the highest she could go in best-case scenario.

The hunt is on again. We’re hunting fair decks this time.

Huntmaster of the Fells is a wholly different beast. Like Olivia, Huntmaster spiked from the $6 to $18 within days following the Invitational. Remember, Jund made top eight of both the Invitational and Modern Open. However, I don’t think Huntmaster’s price is done spiking yet.

While he was just found as a two-of in Jund’s sideboard, Huntmaster sees play in a larger variety of decks compared with Olivia. While Olivia’s role is to break open creature mirrors, Huntmaster serves as instant value in a format where removal is generally one-for-one. He is a bit like a planeswalker in the fact that he is a card that does multiple things: create board position, gains life, takes out small creatures, and domes the opponent.

While Huntmaster can be found in a variety of midrange lists that runs his colors, his current surge in price is solely driven by Jund’s recent performance.

However, I think that he has yet to hit his ceiling. Huntmaster was present as a four-of in the sideboard of a variant of an archetype that I think is very well-positioned for this weekend’s Grand Prix, which segues perfectly into the next segment:

Next-Level Delver

Check out this new take on Delver that took down a 273-player StarCityGames Modern Premier IQ in the weekend before Modern Masters 2015 weekend:

Temur Delver by Jordan Boisvert
Temur Delver by Jordan Boisvert

While Delver decks went down the Grixis route to get access to the black Tarmogoyf, Kolaghan’s Command, and efficient creature removal suites resulting in an overall better midrange game, Jordan Boisvert took Delver down a whole different road. He shifted the deck’s gear to tempo and went full speed ahead.

His version of Temur Delver plays the protect-the-queen strategy to the max. The playset of Disrupting Shoal protect your turn-one Delver of Secrets or turn two-Tarmogoyf or Hooting Mandrills. Stubborn Denial adds another three copies of an efficient counterspell to ensure the survival of your early, undercosted threats.

Instead of looking for an improved mid-to-long game capability, Boisvert’s Temur Delver just aims to deploy multiple undercosted threats within the first few turns of the game and protect them with highly efficient counterspells. Disrupting Shoal transforms card advantage into tempo, playing a similar role in Modern as with Force of Will in Legacy Temur Delver. With the most popular Modern removal spells costing one mana (Path to Exile and Lightning Bolt) and half the spells in the deck consisting of one-mana blue spells, there is no shortage of cards to pitch to Force of Will Disrupting Shoal.

Jordan Boisvert’s write-up on how he came to the list and the decks choice of cards is well worth a read. In his article, Jordan mentioned that Huntmaster of the Fells excels in any matchups against fair decks. Based on his individual matchup analysis, Huntmaster seems to be brought in post-board the majority of the time, even against aggro decks like Burn and Affinity, against Grixis Delver, and even Twin decks in anticipation of grindy post-board games.

The question now is: was the deck merely a one-hit wonder?

Adam Fronsee, impressed with Jordan’s list, brought a Delver deck that runs the same core as Jordan’s Temur Delver list (delve creatures, Disrupting Shoal, and Stubborn Denial), but contains black instead of red, which gave him access to more Delve creatures and Abrupt Decay. His list was one of the best-performing decks in the Modern portion of the Invitational. Adam Fronsee finished 12th, probably let down by his Standard showing.

Sultai Delver by Adam Fronsee.
Sultai Delver by Adam Fronsee.

It looks like the pure tempo version of Delver running the Disrupting Shoal and Stubborn Denial core may be the next direction of Delver’s evolution. It’s hard for Delver to play the midrange game with Jund and Abzan doing it much better. The addition of powerful Delve creatures like Tasigur, the Golden Fang and Hooting Mandrills gave Delver more options for undercosted creatures, improving the archetype’s tempo game.

The Modern Force of Will, Finally?

Should Delver move towards a tempo-centric build, Disrupting Shoal would be the card that stands to gain the most price-wise.

Disrupting Shoal Price
Finally fulfilling its destiny as Modern’s Force of Will?

Disrupting Shoal is not the Force of Will that Modern needs, but the Force of Will that Modern deserves. Having dodged reprint in both Modern Masters, the supply of Disrupting Shoal is dangerously low. I dare not even posit its ceiling shall Delver decks move towards the Boisvert’s tempo core that runs a full four Shoals. After a spike in January 2014 due to Travis Woo’s ephemeral Ninja Bear Delver, it is now back down to $6. I think it is a safe bet to buy in a this price, or at least pick up your own playset if you ever intend on playing Delver in Modern.

Delver for Charlotte

One of the reason why I am bullish on cards related to new Delver tech is that Delver, be it Grixis, Temur, or Sultai, seems to be in a good position for Grand Prix Charlotte, assuming the metagame shifts in response to last week’s Star City Games Invitational and Modern Open results.

At level zero, we could expect more Green-Red Tron decks, seeing that Green-Red Tron took down both the Invitational and Modern Open. Delver decks have a great matchup against any deck that attempts to resolve seven- and eight-mana spells. Temur and Sultai Delver probably just eat Tron for breakfast with their slew of undercosted threats that survive Pyroclasm.

The Tron decks would probably eat up the fairest-of-the-fair Jund and Abzan decks. While Delver can handle Jund, Abzan is an atrocious matchup, so having to face less of those decks improves the odds for Delver. Luckily, Abzan is falling out of favor and players are opting for Jund once again, which is good news for the tempo-oriented Delver builds: no more Path to Exile and Siege Rhino, the best answers to Delver’s undercosted fatties. Abrupt Decay is plain useless against Delve creatures.

At level one, we can expect more Twin and Infect, two natural predators of the Tron decks that can scarcely interact with them in game one. Delver has a favorable matchup against both these decks, as Boisvert explained in his write-up.

Based on the above, I think there is a good chance we will see at least one Delver deck finally make top eight of a large event in the post-Treasure Cruise-and-Pod landscape. It’s hard to predict which build would be the one to make it all the way, but after watching Boisvert’s Temur Delver demolish the popular Grixis Delver in Jeff Hoogland and Mat Bimonte’s Crash Test series, I think the tempo-based Delver decks running Disrupting Shoal stand a better chance. After all, if Delver decks are king at the Grand Prix, the Delver that eats other Delvers would be emperor.

Thanks for reading today. Do share your thoughts and predictions for Grand Prix Charlotte in the comments section below or catch me on Twitter at @theguoheng.

 

Corbin Hosler, ProTrader, Unlocked ProTrader

UNLOCKED PROTRADER: One Last Look at Modern Masters 2015

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By: Corbin Hosler

Very rarely does something so thoroughly dominate the conversation as Modern Masters 2015 has managed to do, and it’s been a wild ride. From exciting spoilers and eco-friendly packaging to underwhelming rares and damaged and/or missing cards to the largest trading card tournament ever hosted, Modern Masters 2015 has certainly delivered in the Magic news cycle, if not in the hearts, minds, and wallets of all players.

That said, we’re finally moving past Modern Masters 2015 and into the time of Magic Origins. I think I’ve written about Modern Masters sets four of the last five weeks or something crazy like that. It’s not usually my style to harp on things for so long, but every week when I’ve sat down to write it has felt like this is the set we’re most interested in hearing more about, and the one on the forefront of people’s minds.

 

 

Barring any unforeseen developments, it seems like that time is finally moving behind us. I’m not promising no more Modern articles (after all, I’m working Grand Prix Charlotte this weekend, and it’s going to be very interesting to see how the Modern metagame adapts after last week’s Invitational), but I do think I’ll be done talking about Modern Masters 2015 before too long.

That said, there are some odds and ends in my coverage of the set I want to put in order before I close the book on it. Thus far, I’ve focused on the hype, the early movements, the fallout from Vegas, and what effect the additional printings have had on prices.

Mat_MTG_GP_LasVegas

What I haven’t done is talk about the future of the set: where it’s going, what cards are good pickups now versus what will be good in a year, what cards to stay away from, etc. I’ve had a few requests for this type of analysis, and I want to make sure I take care of that before moving on.

So, with the preamble out of the way, I’ll dig in. The plan is to treat this somewhat like my typical set review, highlighting cards I feel strongly about one way or another.

Pick-Ups Now

Let’s start at the top, with the cards I believe have bottomed out in price already and will be trending upward from this point forward. In some senses, this applies to much of the set, but I want to use this first section to talk about those cards that are going to move back up the quickest.

The shortlist is pretty, well, short:

There are a few others I could maybe throw onto this list, but I want to be clear about why this is my shortlist. These are not the only cards that have bottomed out, but they are the ones I believe will stay bottomed out for the least amount of time. In other words, these highly-played cards will see a price rebound much sooner than some of the other cards in the set for which I believe there is more time to pick up.

crypticcommand

But these are the most desirable cards in the set, and the time they’re bottoming out is now, and it won’t be for long. The only true question mark is, with Grand Prix Charlotte this weekend being Modern, if we’ll see an effect similar to Grand Prix Richmond last year, where prices spike leading up to the event and then trail off afterward. That remains to be determined, but for now there’s not much to indicate that these cards will stay at this lower level for too long.

The Next Tier

Here we have the cards that I believe are good pickups, but not quite as pressing. Think of things like Lava Spike from the first Modern Masters. We knew it would be a good pickup, but it’s taken until this year (two years later) to really pay off.

These cards exist in Modern Masters 2015 as well, and I wanted to highlight a few of them.

Eldrazi

Prices are still trending downward on these, and I expect that to continue for another few weeks or even months. I’m not sure how much further these have to fall, but chances are it’s another $5 or so. Keep an eye for the bottom on these moving forward, and buy in there. These are going to be great gainers over the next few years, even if Battle for Zendikar comes along and gives us new, cool Eldrazi. Chances are these original Big Three™ won’t be replaced, they’ll simply be added to a larger roster.

On this note, I like Eye of Ugin and Eldrazi Temple, as well. Temple is something that will quickly become a forgotten-about uncommon and a solid pickup, but I think the better bet is Eye. This thing is great in Commander, gets played in Modern, and will look especially impressive after we return to Zendikar and get more Eldrazi for it to play with.

Other cards I put in this category of “good pick-ups a month or two from now”:

Splinter Twin

I know this is an extensive list, but I’m trying to be as complete as possible. I expect all of these to bottom out in the next few weeks to months, but the main thing I want you take away from this list is that these are still staples. They’re going to fall lower and for a long time we’re going to take for granted that’s there’s enough of them to go around. But before you know it, it’s going to be 2016 and these are going to pull a Deceiver Exarch on us and shoot back up in price.

The Long-Term Only

Next up are the cards I believe are worth setting aside from your boxes, but will take significantly longer to rebound. For instance, Stonehewer Giant would be the poster child for this category in the original Modern Masters, and I think Creakwood Liege takes over that role this time around.

Still, these are worth setting aside. Throw them in the trade binder now rather than part with them for pennies on the dollar, and these will have the opportunity to make you money in a few years. On that note, there’s no rush to acquire these cards, but remember this list when we’re back in the summer doldrums a year from now and you need something to turn Standard stock into.

Commons/Uncommons

You definitely don’t want to forget about these, and I’ve seen a distressing number of these in draft leftovers already. Remember that something like Vines of Vastwood is a common that was super expensive (for a common) before the reprint, and will likely climb back to there before all is said and done. Just make a small box of these and lose it in the closet for a few years.

Special Cases

Foils

Before I wrap up, I want to hit on a few more things in the set, starting with some nice cards to pick up in foil, largely due to their Commander playability.

Conclusions

Largely, I think there’s still some room to fall for most of the set, and I’m not dying to tear into these in trade just yet. But I hope by breaking the set down in clear categories, I’ve been able to outline my strategy with this set going forward.

Of course, all of this is just my opinion on how to approach the future of Modern Masters 2015. What are your plans?

 

Thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter

Going Mad

Going Mad – So You Want to Sell a Wingmate Roc?

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By: Derek Madlem

If you’ve followed my travels in recent weeks and months, you might have noticed that I’ve been working some events as a buyer for a few fine card retailers. On the other side of the table you notice things and you talk with the other buyers, and you encounter the same issues time and time again. Some people just don’t understand. That’s where I come in, because I’m here to help.

Obviously none of my employers would be thrilled if I was giving away their back end information so I want (need) to make it clear that these numbers are all semi-informed hypotheticals used simply to illustrate a point. Consider this all to be a work of fiction.

The Costs

One of the moments that arises when buying cards is people don’t understand why you can pay 50-60% all day long on $10+ cards but not on a $1-3 cards. The costs, kid. The costs.

There are a lot of things you just don’t think about as a consumer at an event. Most people don’t even consider that many events cost as much or more for three days than most of their local game stores pay for an entire month.

Let’s take a look at some “best case” hypothetical numbers here just to get a frame of reference.

Booth cost at a Grand Prix: let’s say you’re getting a bargain at $3,000 for the weekend. It’s got tables and chairs and probably some table cloths but it’s going to be a small booth.

Subtotal: $3,000

Employees: since you were cheap and opted for the small booth, you only need four guys to run it. You’ll need one guy at the buying station, one guy selling, one guy standing in the middle barking orders, and one guy that’s mostly just dead weight so the rest of you can resent him all weekend. Each of those guys is a Magic groupie so they’ll work for $100 a day, so that’s $100 x 3 x 4 = $1200

Subtotal: $4,200

Food: Did I mention you have to feed those guys? Since you’re in fantasy bargain town, let’s assume you can feed them for $5 per meal per person. $5 a meal at 3 meals per day, times 3 days times 4 people = $180. We’ll go ahead and round that to $200 because of snacks. Mmmm snacks.

Subtotal: $4,400

Lodging: Despite popular belief, the people working a booth at a Grand Prix DO NOT sleep in the event hall; you’ve gotta spring for lodging. That’s going to be four nights at a modest $100 a night because everyone is doubling up in queen beds for the weekend and running water is pretty sweet.

Subtotal: $4,800

Transport: Wow, this is getting expensive fast, luckily the GP was within driving distance so there’s only the $100 in gas to worry about. Never mind that you couldn’t really get to a GP in a vehicle that would get that kind of gas mileage, transport your whole team, AND supplies. Don’t forget parking for the weekend!

Subtotal: $4,900

Let’s go ahead and add another $100 to round it out, gummy bears and cocaine get expensive and hypothetical scenarios just work a lot better with nice round numbers.

Final Booth Subtotal: $5,000 (nice round number)

So in an ideal world where every card was purchased at 50% of retail and every single card is sold, that’s $10,000 in sales JUST TO BREAK EVEN. But realistically most sales are not occurring at events, they’re happening through online stores, brick and mortar stores, or through TCGplayer type sites that charge a percentage. Don’t forget that PayPal wants their cut as well.

So now you’re wondering why I spent 400 words explaining to you that it’s expensive to set up at a large event aren’t you? Don’t worry, we’ll get there eventually.

Wingmate Roc

Some of you might be wondering why you only get offered $1 for that Wingmate Roc when it sells for $3? So take all that information above and keep in mind that you have to sell $10,000 in cards at a 50% margin just to break even. But in reality, there is no such thing as 50% margins.

Business is Expensive

There are more costs. Before you can even sell a card you have to sort, grade, price, list, and stock the cards. Then you start selling them, whether that’s in a brick and mortar store or an online retailer. It also turns out that there is no Magical Christmas Land where you get to sell through 100% of the cards you pick up so there’s always going to be some percentage of toxic inventory squishing that bottom line as well. Did I mention that there are still more costs?

Math!

So let’s look at that Wingmate Roc that you wanted to sell. For demonstration’s sake we’ll say that we paid $1.50 for it. When a store sells that card online they have to pick it, pack it, and ship it in addition to the sorting, grading, pricing, listing, and stocking the cards mentioned above. Even if they have the most efficient system in place for all these steps, you’re still looking at somewhere upwards of 25¢ in labor assuming they’re employing adults in America rather than children on the other side of the world.

According to about three minutes of research on TCG’s website, if you’re using TCG Direct you’re going to pay around 75¢ in handling fees. If you package the cards and send them yourself you’re paying 10% + 30¢ credit card processing fee or about 60¢ in total fees; we’ll just ignore the hypothetical customer service scenarios that can eat up your time when the guy on the other end of the envelope is mad because he was planning on getting his Wingmate Roc graded.

For those of you keeping score at home that’s $2.35 – $2.50 cost to sell a Wingmate Roc. Do you know how many of those you need to sell to break even? Let’s get out our calculators!

$10,000 divided by 50¢ is going to take selling 20,000 cards just to break even on that one event. That’s assuming you don’t have any other costs throughout the month.

I did a little bit of research and I was able to determine that there are remarkably few successful businesses built on the premise of “breaking even” every month, so we’d probably need to sell a few more than that if we wanted to be profitable.

Oh did I mention the plethora of other miscellaneous supplies needed?

  • Display cases
  • Things to write with / on
  • Clipboards
  • Sleeves
  • Rock star sunglasses
  • Boxes
  • Banners
  • Display boards of some kind
  • Extension cords
  • Computers
  • Portable internet connection
  • Those sweet custom buy mats you see at every vendor
  • Branded attire
  • Travel crates / suitcases / what have you

As you can see, there is not a lot money being made on Wingmate Rocs, but retailers are often “forced” to carry the entire line so that you can get all of your shopping done in one stop.

Assumption of Risk

This is a concept that’s absolutely lost on most people that sell cards. When a vendor is buying a card from you, they are also taking on significant risk. Magic cards are not something that people need to live, like water and food. The markets can be very fickle and when a card drops in value, whoever is left holding them is the loser. 

When your Wingmate Rocs dropped from $7 to $3, you “lost” $16 on a playset. But if a store is carrying significant inventory of that card, say ten or more playsets, the loss shoots up into the hundreds of dollars.

When you sell cards to a vendor, they are betting that they can sell enough of those cards fast enough to recoup their investment and just hoping that the rest sell eventually. This is that toxic inventory that I mentioned previously. A card that’s not selling is just money that’s tied up and can’t be used to further grow a business, and it’s certainly not anything resembling profit. This toxic inventory factors into that bottom line just as much as the 30¢ credit processing fee on TCGplayer.

Unintended Consequences

One of the neat things that happens in doing thought exercises like this one is that you occasionally have a couple of “AH HA!” moments in the process and you make connections that you might not have made before.

For the last few years there’s been an “event horizon” for the prices on Standard cards. As cards approached that $3-4 mark they often quickly fell into bulk status and I think this might be much to do with the realities of selling a $3 card these days. Great examples in current Standard of cards that couldn’t escape the gravitational pull of a money sucking black hole are Mantis Rider, Surrak, the Hunt Caller, and Sidisi, Undead Vizier. All of these cards were worth $6+ at one point and then crept down to that event horizon and sucked into the cosmic abyss.

This theory would also explain the opposite effect, which would be the price of uncommons like Stoke the Flames commonly getting pushed up into the $4 range. If it’s going to take an offer of $1 to get a good playable uncommon out of a binder, then selling it for $4 is almost required at that point. As vendor you’re pretty much expected to have at least some of the current formats hottest uncommons, so to carry them you pretty much just have to ramp them up to $4.

What Did We Learn Today?

Well kids, we learned why vendors have to offer you the prices they do on low-cost cards like Wingmate Roc. It’s not just them trying to rip you off, it’s just an economic reality of doing business. The alternative of course is that we give up Grand Prix events all together and just go back to playing locally. You did know that all of these venues are essentially subsidized by the vendors right? Why else would a TO let in vendors other than themselves?

The other thing to consider going forward is that with the absence of PTQs, there are going to be a lot less “low cost” events for vendors to set up at. It’s a lot easier to show up and pay 50-60% on cards when your table only costs $500 to setup and you don’t have to plan on staying over night.

 

Uncategorized

The Chiba Report

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By Guo Heng

First off, let me apologise for being missing for the past week-and-a-half. I was at Tokyo and Chiba for a week for the Modern Masters 2015 weekend and I had something urgent to sort out when I got back home. Now that the dusts have settled, it’s time for a Grand Prix report. My fellow MTGPrice writers have covered Grand Prix Vegas in depth over the past week: Travis Allen, Jason Alt, Corbin Hosler and Douglas Johnson regaled us with their stories of their time in Vegas, Derek Madlem offered his perspective on the infamous #GoyfGate incident and Sigmund Ausfresser shared with us the lessons he learned at the Grand Prix. I figured I was probably the only MTGPrice writer who went to Chiba, so now is my turn to tell my story.

The Largest Grand Prix in Asia

Chiba Players

Unsurprisingly, Grand Prix Chiba turned out to be the largest Grand Prix to ever take place in this part of the world, with 4,000 players participating. It was also probably the fastest selling Grand Prix ever. Chiba hit the 4,000 players cap within 12 hours of preregistration going live. 12 hours. Preregistration opened at around 8 pm here in Malaysia, so I was lucky enough to be able to secure my spot in the event. I’ve heard about people living in different time zones waking up to a sold-out Grand Prix Chiba preregistration. A few weeks later the organisers announced another 400-ish slots being opened up from pre-registrants who did not pay.

Exclusive & Expensive Playmats

Securing a spot in the Grand Prix was only the first part of the battle. The dismal official Grand Prix playmat featuring the ‘new’ Etched Champion art was no worthy memorabilia for the Magic event of the year. Luckily, a week before the Grand Prix, the organisers revealed three special playmats for the event on top of the sweet new art Vendilion Clique playmat that the Vegas players had a chance to get their hands on. But lo behold, those special playmats were very limited in supply, with only 300 of each sold per day and they were only available on Friday and Saturday.

Having missed out on the playmats on Friday as I arrived at Chiba at 10 am, I popped by the Makuhari Messe Convention Centre at 7.15 am on Saturday morning only to be greeted by this lovely sight:

Playmat Queue

My heart sank when I saw the line. Saturday was my last chance to not go home with a crappy playmat. I lined up nevertheless. Fortunately by the time I got to the ticket station (you line up for tickets for the special playmats, then line up to pay for and collect them at a designated playmat station before 12 pm), the Vendilion Clique and Mark Tedin’s Great Evil playmats were still available. Unfortunately, the popular playmats, the two angel-themed ones  – Johannes Voss’ Sakura Angel and Peter Mohrbacher’s Kushiel x Tokyo – were long gone.

Playmat Tickets

I was close to the end of the line and they had some extra Vendilion Clique and Tedin playmats, so they were happy to hand me two tickets of each. I’d figure the Vendilion Clique playmat may be worth something and ¥3,500 ($28) was not too shabby a price to pay for a pretty sweet mat. I was not sure about the value of the Tedin one, but heck I woke up at an ungodly hour to get to the venue, and lined up for one whole hour, I might as well get another.

Playmat Loot

Japanese Grand Prixes have a knack for offering special playmats on top of the one given out to every participant, and some of them are worth quite a bit. The Johannes Voss Sakura Angel playmat sans the ‘Grand Prix Chiba’ stamp (the limited supply ones had a ‘Grand Prix Chiba’ stamp on the bottom right) was selling at Voss’ artist booth for ¥20,000 ($161) on Friday, and ¥15,000 ($121) on Saturday. That was way beyond my budget, so I begrudgingly passed on the chance to acquire the most sought after playmat at the Grand Prix. I ended up buying Peter Mohrbacher’s mecha-anime angel playmat for ¥6,000 ($48) and I had him scribble ‘Grand Prix Chiba’ on the bottom right corner where the stamp would have been.

Mohrbacher Playmat

Were $121 and $48 insane prices for a playmat? Check out the price these angel playmats were fetching on eBay a few days after the Grand Prix:

Playmat eBay

Then again the hallowed Ugin playmat awarded to the champion of Fate Reforged‘s Game Day was fetching $80 in the week following the Game Day but is now $60 – $70. The angel playmats are in scarcer quantities compared with the Ugin playmat but on the other hand, there are likely to be more people out there who want an Ugin playmat.

Cash is King

I did not brought as much cash as I would have liked to the Grand Prix. Instead I brought a bunch of Modern holds that have appreciated in value that I intended to cash out with the vendors such as these babies I’ve held for 2 years plus:

Inkmoth 9

It turned out that the vendors at Japanese Grand Prixes were not able to buy cards from players at the venue. A vendor kindly explained something along the lines of their business license being restricted to the region in which their brick and mortar stores are based. Oh well.

I’ve always thought that Grand Prixes were great places to move cards to vendors as they are more likely to offer competitive buylist pricing with other vendors present in the venue. Plus, it is a lot easier to compare and find the best buylist price for my cards when all the biggest vendors are within 50 metres of each other.

Cash trades among players were a no-no at the Grand Prix and there were uniformed guards patrolling the tables to make sure that does not happen. As a law-abiding person in general and for the fear of being whisked away into the Japanese version of Guantanamo Bay, I dared not sell my cards to the binder traders at the trading tables.

I ended up wasting half a day to make a trip to Tokyo to transmute my Modern holds into cash to use at the Grand Prix. Two of the vendors brought mobile credit card readers but somehow my credit card refused to work on those.

Lesson learned. Cash is king at Grand Prixes. I know, it’s probably fundamental knowledge for most Grand Prix participants, let alone financier. I was trying to be a smarty pants by spending my yens on non-Magic collectibles during my stay at Tokyo and I expected to reload my cash at a Grand Prix by liquidating cards but it backfired on me. Next time I go to a Grand Prix I am going to stuff my binder with cold hard cash.

The EV of Side Events

I don’t usually join the fire-on-demand side events at the Grand Prixes I’ve attended. I tend to opt for the Super Sunday Series, or a whatever large open tournament taking place on Sunday. I missed the Super Sunday Series at Chiba as players can only register for the event on Saturday evening, during which I was in Tokyo offloading my Modern cards to refuel my yen. I couldn’t be bothered to make the hour-plus trip back to Chiba just to register for the Super Sunday Series.

So I spent Sunday morning getting in trades and hunting for deals as any self-respecting financier would do at a Grand Prix, and playing in the fire-on-demand Standard events.

The fire-on-demand side events turned out to boast an insane EV. They were eight-player single elimination events and the only prize was 12 packs of Japanese Modern Masters 2015 for the winner of each pod. The entry fee was ¥1,500 ($12) and each pack of Japanese Modern Masters 2015 was going for ¥2,000 ($16) at the Grand Prix. I assumed that I would have to make it to the finals before being able to split with my opponent. Fine, I just need to win two matches in a row and I trusted that Michael Villavicenci‘s Mardu Dragons would get the job done.

After spending the morning trading and buying cards, I signed up for my first Standard fire-on-demand queue in the afternoon. My first round opponent was running a Blue-White Control and after an intense first two games, I managed to resolve an Elspeth, Sun’s Champion and clinch the win for game three. As I was shuffling my deck in preparation for the next round, one of the remaining three players asked if I would agree to a four-way split for 12 Japanese Modern Masters 2015 packs. I said yes without hesitation and I’ve probably shook his hand harder than I should. It was basically ¥1,500, win one match and get ¥6,000 in products. That was a good enough EV to put a smile on my face for the rest of the day. I hurriedly signed up for another Standard fire-on-demand before the queues closed  (I lost that one).

Side Event Prize

It may be worth checking out the fire-on-demand side events at Grand Prixes in the future if you miss day two and are not planning to play in the Super Sunday Series. I used to ignore the fire-on-demand events at Grand Prixes assuming that their EV would be crap, and I shall not do so anymore. Chiba’s fire-on-demand side events (not last chance trials) may be a one-off thing as the payout in Japanese Modern Masters 2015 packs bumped up the EV exceptionally and I don’t have much experience playing in those side events, so if you have any experience regarding the EV of these events, do share them in the comments. I would certainly keep an eye out for these events the next time I attend a Grand Prix.

Trades & Acquisitions

I’ve had the opportunity to do quite a bit of trading and purchasing at Chiba, something I don’t usually get to do much at Grand Prixes as you’ll usually find me playing in big events on all three days. The following are a few trades and acquisitions worth writing about.

Engineered Explosives, Outpost Siege for Jace, Architect of Thought, Purphoros, God of the Forge (Japanese)

The first trade I did at Chiba was with a reader from Toronto, Muki who recognised me from my mustache.

Jace Purphoros Trade

Quite a number of traders were looking for Engineered Explosives at Chiba, probably due to the fact that it was not reprinted in Modern Masters 2015. I was bullish on the long-term prospect of Purphoros, God of the Forge in an article on the Theros gods I wrote a while back and I think that Jace, Architect of Thought has a lot of potential in Modern and $3 is probably as low as he can go.

Engineered Explosives has the potential to appreciate in price this Modern season, as it is a Modern sideboard staple, but I was happy to trade off my extra copy for two long-term holds. The Outpost Siege was thrown in to even out the trade.

3 Geist of Saint Traft, 1 Disrupting Shoal for 2 Game Day Promo Thunderbreak Regent (Japanese), 2 Trinisphere

Geist for Dragons

I traded off my Geist of Saint Trafts as their growth was a little too sluggish for my liking and I was happy to cash out with the small profit I’ve made from them. Disrupting Shoal was recently featured as a playset in the deck that took down the StarCityGames Modern Premier IQ the week before Grand Prix Chiba and I figured the hype might push Disrupting Shoal’s price up a little.

The Game Day Promo Thunderbreak Regent is another card which I am bullish on its long-term value. The regent’s current value is buoyed by the significant amount of Standard play it is seeing and it has a good chance of becoming a casual or EDH staple as a playable dragon. Foil promo Japanese versions seems to be a good place to be for cards like these. Having just bought one for ¥3,400 ($28) from a vendor, I was quite happy to get them in trade for ¥2,700 ($22) each, considering their recent eBay sales:

Thunderbreak Regent eBay

One of the reason I got into mtgfinance is to subsidise the cost of indulging in Magic. The Trinispheres were for a funky Modern MUD brew I am toying with. Legacy and Vintage MUD had always fascinated me and I am attempting to make it work in Modern. The lack of Ancient Tomb, City of Traitors and Mox Diamond makes the deck way less explosive that I’d like it to be and from testing it is probably destined to be a tier 2.5 deck. But it’s hell of a fun to play. The trader valued his Trinispheres at StarCityGames pricing at ¥800, significantly lower than the average e of ¥1,600  – ¥1,900 that vendors were selling their Trinispheres at. Certain eternal staples are valued differently in Japan.

Bought 2 Platinum Angel (Japanese), Sculpting Steel, Nevinyrral’s Disk, Trading Post Foil

Artifacts Haul

The prices for casual staples in Japan really surprised me. Platinum Angel for just ¥400? And in Japanese? I’ll take two please (the other one was already in my MUD deck when I took this picture). I initially planned to just get one Platinum Angel for my Modern MUD brew, but I remembered reading about her in Douglas Johnson’s article a while back about the persistence of her price amidst two reprints and I decided to grab an extra. I guess I’ll save myself the trouble of swapping cards between my Modern and EDH deck. The Sculpting Steel was half the price it is going for outside Japan and I could do with one in my EDH decks. There’s nothing special about the Nevinyrral’s Disk besides saving me the trouble of finding one in Malaysia where it takes an adventure to locate and buy old cards. Trading Post foils at ¥300 ($2.50) seemed like a steal given its popularity in EDH and playability in Legacy MUD. I mentioned a long time ago that I am confident that foil Trading Post is a $8 – $10 card.

Ugin, the Spirit Dragon Foil (Japanese)

Foil Japanese Ugin

The biggest acquisition of the weekend and the main card I was looking to get my hands on at Chiba. Before I let for Japan, I told myself that no matter what I am going to come back with a foil Japanese Ugin, the Spirit Dragon. Since I wrote a 3,000-word piece on the future price trajectory of the dragon planeswalker, Ugin’s role in the eternal formats has all but solidified as a staple in Modern Tron and Legacy MUD and I was keen to make sure that I have a foil Japanese copy when its price is still within my budget.

The first vendor I approached turned out to have the best price for foil Japanese Ugin, the Spirit Dragon at ¥15,000 ($122). Other vendors were selling theirs for ¥19,000 ($155) to ¥20,000 ($163). I hurried back to the first vendor to grab the Ugin, which was in pristine condition for ¥15,000 ($122). Foil Japanese Ugins were going for $137 – $174 on eBay during May and even the most expensive copy in the vicinity of the Grand Prix was just slightly above eBay’s mean.

Good deals are to be had at Grand Prixes, but make sure you grab them as soon as you can, on Friday preferably if you can make it to the venue by then. I made the mistake of hesitating when I saw a foil Japanese Eye of Ugin going for a mere ¥1,200 ($10) which was cheaper than an English foil on StarCityGames and a Japanese Game Day Promo Thunderbreak Regent for ¥3,000 ($24) on Friday. When I got back on Sunday after reloading my cash in Tokyo, the cheapest Japanese Game Day Promo Thunderbreak Regent was selling for ¥3,400 ($28) and the foil Japanese Eye of Ugin bumped up to ¥2,000 ($16).

Closing Thoughts

All-in-all Grand Prix Chiba was a different experience from the few other Grand Prixes I’ve had the chance to attend. For one, the number of playmats I’ve acquired (6) far exceeds the number of Magic matches I’ve played at the Grand Prix (2). And Chiba was also the Grand Prix in which I did the most trading, buying and socialising. Shout-out to all the Malaysian players and judges who were playing and judging at the largest Grand Prix in Asia, shout-out to Nick, a reader whom which I’ve been corresponding with over Facebook regarding the event and finally managed to meet in person at the Grand Prix, and to Muki: there’s no better way to conclude a Japanese Grand Prix than chatting about Magic over Kirin and ramen.

 

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