More Trades From the Recent Past

June 20, 2014 Cliff Daigle

By: Cliff Daigle

A while back, I shared with you some trades from my Deckbox history. Today, I want to revisit some more trades I’ve made.

My purpose here is to tell you what you can get if you get out at the height of value and pick up things that are currently undervalued. That is how I keep increasing the value of my collection, even while taking value out for EDH decks and other life expenses.

Again, at the time, these trades were about even, based on TCG’s mid price.

October 1, 2013

My: 4x Jace, Architect of Thought
Their: 3x Cavern of Souls, 4x Abrupt Decay, Deathrite Shaman

Remember when Jace hit $30? He was getting buylisted for $20 at his peak, but that peak was very, very short. You could have gotten him for about $8 in trade before summer, and not long after Theros came out, Jace spiked HARD.

If you were following certain people on Twitter (Travis Allen, et al.) then you could have seen people tweeting about the stacks of Jaces they had picked up for just this occasion. I could have sold my playset for $80, but instead I swung for the fences and went with this trade…and it’s hit. Cavern is a good bet to be reprinted, so I’m game to trade it away now that it’s nearly $20. Abrupt Decay has gone up a few bucks, Deathrite went down a couple, but those Jaces? Mega-ouch.

Amusingly, the weekend I did this trade, it was accepted on a Friday, and Jace was valued around $21. By that Monday he was $30 and I was annoyed that I hadn’t gotten more in trade.

This spike and the subsequent fall of Jace, Architect of Thought is why I’m so eager to trade for underpriced Planeswalkers now.

Current valuations: $22 vs. $114

November 21, 2013

My: Blood Crypt, Overgrown Tomb, 2x Temple Garden, 3x Stomping Ground
Their: 2x HP Plateau

Neither of these Plateaus turned out to be fakes, and considering their condition, that’s no surprise. It would have taken a lot of work to get them into such condition. They don’t look too bad in sleeves, and one went into an EDH deck, the other got traded at FNM for a fetchland.

With this trade, I want to reiterate something I and others have said: If you get a chance to trade in-print Standard for Reserved List cards, even in bad condition, even giving up 10%-20% in value, take it. It’s rare to find someone who’s willing to trade old for new, and when it’s ‘never get printed again’ old, grab it.

Current valuations: $62 vs. $80 ($40 for HP Plateau)

December 13, 2013

My: Hallowed Fountain, Stomping Ground
Their: Foil Prophet of Kruphix, Foil Temple of Deceit

During Return to Ravnica block I aggressively traded for shocklands. Their value wasn’t going to go down, and they are used everywhere, making them excellent trade fodder. I’m already up a little on this trade, but the foil Prophet is going to start climbing soon, as the shiny version of one of the best casual cards ever.

Current valuation: $17 vs. $21

January 13, 2014

My: Shardless Agent and Xira Arien (SP)
Their: 8x Prophet of Kruphix, 3x Rise of the Dark Realms (1 Japanese), 4x Thespian’s Stage (1 Japanese)

I know I’ve said it in multiple columns and on Twitter: Prophet is casual gold. In the past few months, it’s gone from under $2 to about $3, and that’s while it’s being opened. It’s not hard to see this as a $5 or more card by Christmas, especially if the rumors are true and Tarkir block is wedge-based. (Blue-Green-Red would be a wedge, such as Animar, Soul of Elements or Riku of Two Reflections.)

The only thing standing in the way of this being $10 in 18 months is the possibility of getting banned in Commander. I don’t see that happening, based on comparisons to Seedborn Muse, Winding Canyons, etc. It is possible, though. I’ve got 50 copies, and I expect to move around half when they hit $5.

Rise of the Dark Realms is something else you should be getting out of peoples’ trade binders. Especially as it makes a sweet combo with the recently-spoiled In Garruk’s Wake. Get to nine mana, wipe the board, and then get it all back the next turn.

Current valuations: $19 vs. $39

April 24, 2014

My: Armada Wurm, 3x Drowned Catacomb, Exquisite Blood, Glacial Fortress, Hinterland Harbor, Loxodon Warhammer (10E), 3x Mutilate (M13), Price of Progress (EXO), Thassa, God of the Sea
Their: 5x Aurelia, the Warleader, 2x Nighthowler (Game Day Promo), Prophet of Kruphix, Young Pyromancer (foil)

I’ve also spoken of my belief that Aurelia is a long-term growth prospect. This is one of the trades I’ve made to have a spare dozen of the angel. I hated trading away Thassa, because that’s only going to go up, but I have still increased my value. I’m pretty sure that Young Pyromancer is going to get reprinted, but it’s unlikely that the supplemental set it’s in will include foils. I’m going to hold this one until it’s at least $20.

Current valuations: $40 vs. $52

City of Traders

Journey to the Center of Your Wallet

June 18, 2014 Travis Allen 4 Comments

By: Travis Allen

A little over a year and a week ago Modern Masters hit the market. Stores couldn’t keep boxes in stock and when they did manage to acquire some they were drafted immediately. Everyone with a platform to shout from was encouraging you to sit on as many boxes as you could because they would be gold down the road. (They were right). Grand Prix Vegas, the only Modern Masters GP, became the largest Magic event in history. As far as cardboard was concerned, Modern Masters defined the summer of 2013.

This left Dragon’s Maze in an unenviable position. With Modern Masters on the market, why would anyone want to draft DGR? Return to Ravnica was mostly a solid draft format, although it’s probably the only one ever for which there was a real call-to-arms to ban a card. Triple Gatecrash had been considerably less enjoyable than RtR overall, even without the threat of flat-out losing the game on turn two to a 1/1. When Dragon’s Maze finally showed up to tie it all together players were a bit fatigued with the block already. It didn’t help that it quickly became apparent that Dragon’s Maze had a single good card. It would take months before Blood Baron started showing up in Standard, and even then that meant there were only two decent cards to open.

DGR wasn’t that fun to draft, had little financial incentive to open, and was completely overshadowed by Modern Masters. The only thing that kept people opening it at all was that MM was simply so difficult to find at times that if you wanted a draft you may not have had any other options.

Two weeks ago Conspiracy showed up in stores all across the country. Wizards stepped pretty far outside the box on this one. We saw the first supplemental-product-only Planeswalker. “Draft matters” cards were included in every pack that did mega-sweet things such as add additional packs to the draft. Games were meant to be played as 4-man free-for-alls instead of the industry standard 1v1 duel. The reception was loud and it was positive. Players love Conspiracy.

For our purposes Conspiracy is a bit different than MM in a few important ways. For one, it’s more accessible to the average player. Someone wandering into your average Wednesday night draft may have balked at the easy $30+ to draft MM. Even if the value in the packs was relatively equitable to a standard expansion set, or possibly even better, it was still a big pill to swallow. A player would still have to turn those cards into cash or store credit in order to draft again. Conspiracy on the other hand has the standard MSRP that core sets and expansions have, which means it’s no more expensive to draft than JBT.

Another checkmark in Conspiracy’s column is who it appeals to. MM was squarely aimed at players already invested in or looking to invest in Modern, which is not the cheapest of formats. Drafting MM was pretty dang cool but it was spikey as heck to boot. The casual player, the silent majority in Magic, wasn’t rushing out to draft MM. But while MM was daunting to the casual player, Conspiracy is a magnet for the type of player that considers making a squirrel deck. Not only does Conspiracy pull all the more casual and multiplayer-oriented players that MM didn’t, it is still novel enough that the same spikes that enjoyed MM will want in. The end result is that while MM’s audience was a bit more niche, Conspiracy is drawing a far greater sampling of players.

A third, and possibly the most important difference between the two, is availability. Modern Masters was quite tough to find at times, with plenty of draft urges going unfulfilled. It was a limited print run that didn’t see as much distribution as players had hoped it would, as evidenced by the fact that it did diddly-squat to the prices of many of the most important cards in Modern. (Tarmogoyf actually got more expensive). Conspiracy though? Conspiracy is not a limited run. This means that as long as vendors like your local store or online outlets are still requesting product Wizards is going to keep printing it (to an extent.) This is a big deal – so long as players want to draft it for the next several months Conspiracy will be available.

Herein lies the whole point of the article. Modern Masters did not overtake drafting at stores around the country. It supplemented it. Players continued to draft DGR, and occasionally got to enjoy an additional MM draft. Conspiracy, though, will eat many more JBT drafts than MM did DGR. This means Journey Into Nyx is likely to be less opened than even Dragon’s Maze.

When you walk into your LGS this week to draft, which are you hoping for? Triple CNS or JBT? How much do you expect that to change in a few weeks? Conspiracy is the first time Wizards has done something like this before and it will be years before we see it again. Most will want to get their fill while it’s readily available. You can get the regular draft experience any old time, whether it’s triple GTC or triple Khans.

The last several blocks have typically had more than a handful of powerful and expensive cards in the last set. Avacyn Restored had piles of cards that were important to Standard and another whole set of cards that maintain considerable casual appeal today. New Phyrexia was dense with power and value. Rise of Eldrazi is dense with expensive mythics. Dragon’s Maze is the odd man out on that front with really only Voice and Blood Baron. If Journey Into Nyx behaves similarly to its predecessors, it too will have several strong Standard cards alongside product capable of maintaining casual appeal.

Let’s review. Journey is a spring set. Spring sets often are full of relevant cards to both spikes and casuals. Third sets are drafted considerably less frequently than the rest of the block, which leads to a smaller quantity in the wild to begin with. A month after Journey was released Conspiracy was made available. Conspiracy is a unique draft format that does many things that have never been done before in Magic. It appeals to casual players and tournament players alike. Supply is large enough to be drafted by anyone that wants to. The reception has been excellent. Oh, and Vintage Masters released on MTGO a few weeks after Journey went digital.

All of this points to one thing. Very expensive Journey Into Nyx cards.

Right now the prices are not out of control, but just give it some time. Temple of Malady has already climbed from the $4-$5 at preorder to an easy $9+. There are many other tournament-caliber cards in the set, such as Silence the Believers, Eidolon of the Great Revel, Eidolon of Blossoms, Battlefield Thaumaturge, Dictate of Kruphix, and Ajani, just to name a few. There are also the casual hits like Godsend and Sage of Hours.

Journey Into Nyx was already poised to have expensive singles, and with Conspiracy freely eating away at draft demand, we’re going to see a great deal of pressure placed on a set with a very low amount of open product. Make sure you have everything you personally need from the set before September and give that spec you have in mind a second look.

Crystal Ball

An article posted on Tuesday over at DailyMTG recapped the status of almost all the Planeswalkers we are aware of right now. Each Planeswalker is given a few sentences to explain what they were last up to and what they may be doing right now. It turns out that nearly half of the walkers are in some way connected to Zendikar. Along with a buddy of mine on Twitter pointing out that a year ago Mark Rosewater was talking an awful lot about Zendikar on tumblr, there are signs pointing to a return there next year. That is a gap of six years, just one less than the gap between Ravnica and Return to Ravnica. None of this is real proof of course. Just something to consider as we see what unfolds in Khans.

The Gilded Goblin

Conspiracy Foil Analysis

June 16, 2014 Jared Yost 6 Comments

By: Jared Yost

Now that Conspiracy is fully spoiled and the first drafts have started firing from the set, I’d like to share with you all what I will be watching moving forward from this set. It won’t be anything besides foils, at least for now.

Here’s my thinking – why do I care about non-foil prices of a product like this when it can just be printed into oblivion like Commander 2013? Remember when our good friend True-Name Nemesis was $50+ when Commander 2013 was released? That sure didn’t last very long. It took an especially huge nose dive when Wizards announced that they would be cutting a random Commander deck in the next wave of the products to make way for two of every Mind Seize for every other one of the other Commander 2013 decks that were released in the new wave. I bought two sealed boxes of the Commander 2013 product first wave (that’s two of each deck) and I’m honestly not sure if that was a good purchase looking back on it now. I have no idea how long it is going to take for those decks to rise past the point that I purchased them at – there are so many of them out there now that the market has become fully saturated with no end to that saturation until the next product. I have a feeling I’m going to be holding onto them for a long time before I can resell them.

I predict that Conspiracy sealed product will be following a similar trajectory. If this product even shows a whiff of popularity, you can bet your Mox Emerald that we’ll be seeing wave after wave after wave of these boxes. I would stay away from Conspiracy sealed product for some time as Wizards has proven with Commander 2013 that they have no problem with mass printings of a product when there is demand in the market.

What isn’t really affected by these mass reprints? Foils. Therefore, foils from Conspiracy will be best to target since mass reprints of the set (which is fairly large coming in at 210 cards) will hardly even budge many of these prices for the first year, and beyond that they will only continue to gain value since the set certainly isn’t lacking unique cards. A few have even seen their first foil printing like Exploration.

However, sometimes foils can drop in value as demand dries up for the first few months to a year after the product has been released. This is because the people that want the foils get them, and then there isn’t any demand for the foils until a new crop of players comes along looking for them. Once this period is over the foil prices will start creeping back up again.

Let’s take a look at the MTGPrice listing for the top 25 foils by value in the set. These are the foils that will see movement one way or another.

Dack Fayden – Surprisingly the first foil on the list is one that you should watch out for. Not in a good way – in a “If this guy doesn’t put up any results over the next few months, abandon ship!” kind of way. Does anyone know if Dack Fayden is even any good at this point? I haven’t seen any decklists that utilize him yet in Legacy or Vintage. It could be too early to tell but I’m not going to hold my breath. His abilities are cool though they don’t really provide an end game like Jace, the Mind Sculptor or Liliana of the Veil.

Brainstorm – Here’s a foil we can all get behind! There are several foil printings of Brainstorm already available to the MTG populace but giving us another definitely won’t hurt, especially with that awesome new art. Don’t get me wrong, I love the first foil version’s Masques art yet the new Izzet themed Brainstorm is great as well! This is the first time that this art has had a foiling so I expect this foil version of Brainstorm to maintain its value and then continue to gain value as the years go on. Actively trade for these copies when you can.

Exploration – A first time foil and found as a playset in a well known Legacy archetype? Sounds like a recipe for a winning pick up. Years down the road, players will wish that they were able to pick up these foils for $60 – however, in the short term I could see this price dropping a bit. Once the players that want these foils pick them up, since the Lands Legacy archetype isn’t a popular choice (you can thank Tabernacle’s insane price for that) and casuals have their fix for EDH the price could easily dip down for a bit while demand is low. Once the dip happens, that will be the time to move on these foils. As these foils continue to sit in people’s EDH and Legacy decks without moving back into the market, the price will re-adjust itself accordingly and I can definitely see these hitting $100 and continue to trend upwards once they become really hard to find.

Council’s Judgment – Ahem, I’ll have to reserve judgement about this particular sorcery’s foil price until I start seeing some TNN’s being exiled with regularity in Legacy. LSV puns aside, $60 for foils of this while normal copies can be had for as low as $8 on TCGPlayer seems greedy. This ain’t Abrupt Decay. It can be countered, costs three mana, requires a heavy commitment to white to cast, and is a sorcery – four serious strikes against it in a format defined by counterspells. Golgari Charm feels better than this most of the time. Maybe I’m severely underestimating this card but you won’t see me buying this for $60 foil.

Stifle – $50 for a foil that has been printed in foil twice already? And we’ve already had a foil printing of this art before in the form of a judge promo? No thanks, I think I’ll pass on this one. There isn’t a reason that this particular foil version will continue to go up and it has every reason to decline in value once more Conspiracy is opened – just like Commander 2013 there will be no end to this product for quite a while, so I expect this foil to be one of the foils that drops in price over time.

Misdirection – Similar to Brainstorm, we haven’t had a Misdirection foil since Masque’s block and we’ve got new art to boot as well. The new art is pretty badass, and even though the old art is iconic I can definitely see players wanting to get their hands on some Conspiracy foils of this card. $48 is a bargain compared to the $140 it will cost you for a Masques foil. In the long term, this price will probably only continue to go up as it seems that Misdirection will have a place in Legacy as long as Sneak and Show exists in the format. Barring any bannings, such as Show and Tell and/or possibly Sneak Attack being banned, expect this foil version of Misdirection to go up over time. Speaking of which, judge foil Show and Tells feel very underpriced to me – they are almost the same price as the regular copies!

Marchesa, the Black Rose – “I’m not even sure if this card is even good in commander.” I thought to myself at first. The thing with Marchesa is that you need to look past the Dethrone stuff, which honestly isn’t going to be that relevant all the time (when is Grixis ever an aggro deck?) and instead focus on that last line of text. “Whenever a creature you control with a +1/+1 counter on it dies, return that card to the battlefield at the beginning of the next end step.” That’s sweet, pretty much constant recursion of your creatures if you build a deck around +1/+1 counters with her! Is it $44 sweet for the foil version though? Honestly, I think the answer is probably. She is in popular commander colors in addition to being a great attrition commander. I’m not sure if that $40 mark will budge for a quite a while (and if it does it won’t go down that much) and I believe in the long term you only stand to gain with a foil of her. She’s also mythic which helps to maintain the high foil price.

Pernicious Deed – For a $35 foil, you aren’t getting a bargain but you could do worse. Deed already has two foil printings and this one keeps the old art with a new border? Not sure if I like that combination. At least with the judge promo they recreated the art to better match the updated card border for multicolored cards. I don’t think the new card border looks good with the old art, though that could just be my nostalgia kicking in since I started playing when Invasion was legal in Standard and Deed is a fond memory from that era. Regardless, I don’t think I want to be picking up foil deeds of this variety right now. I can’t see the foil price increasing long term and it can only go down in the short term.

Muzzio, Visionary Architect – I foresee this guy replacing a lot of Arcum Dagsson’s as commander so that players will be less inclined to think that you are going to combo off on them at any given moment if you’re currently running an Arcum commander deck. Muzzio was a great way for R&D to design a new Arcum without making it busted – he is powerful in his own right but there is a still a randomness to your artifact selection which nerfs most combo shenanigans. Speaking of Arcum Dagsson, foil versions of him can be had for $25 – cheaper than Muzzio is currently. I recommend you stay away from foils of this card for a while until he at least matches Arcum in price or even falls a little bit lower than him.

Reflecting Pool – I’m not sure if I am a fan of this foil at $30. It’s not really played in Modern or any other eternal formats, so its demand comes strictly from commander. There are already Shadowmoor foils out there for Reflecting Pool at $70, so like Deed you can get the bargain foil from Conspiracy if you wish. Unfortunately I wouldn’t really expect this to rise in price for quite a long time, if ever.

Scourge of the Throne – I’m not really a fan of this card. No haste, Dethrone (not a thrilling ability outside of casual and Commander), and requiring you to attack the highest life total to take another combat phase during your turn seems underwhelming to me. However people will collect this card simply because it is a dragon, so maybe my impressions of the card have nothing to do with how awesome it might be to the casual crowd – maybe $30 for a foil of this will be a bargain several years down the line. I’m not going to actively pick up foils of this but if someone offers me the right price I’m not going to turn it down.

Mirari’s Wake – See my review for Deed and Reflecting Pool. Another card with some foil printings that won’t be moving in price any time soon. I would not pick up this foil expecting it to go up significantly over time.

Basandra, Battle Seraph – Similar to Scourge of the Throne, I expect this to maintain value purely due to being an angel. Casuals love their angels and people collect them, especially foil versions. Basandra isn’t that powerful yet this is the only foil version of her, so the price will reflect that accordingly.

Hydra Omnivore – This guy is insane in commander and will be a great target for foil. The non-foil version from Conspiracy is $5 which is significantly lower than the commander counterpart. I think its odd that they reprinted it at mythic even though it was only a rare in the Commander set. Regardless, since this is the first foil version of the card it will command a premium like Basandra. Unlike Basandra, this foil has a chance of taking off as the years go on because it packs quite a punch.

Brago, King Eternal – In my opinion he is only a marginal commander. Even if he is in your commander deck, his stats are pretty underwhelming for something that needs to attack and deal combat damage in order for his effect to go off. His nonfoil version is only about $1.50 on TCGPlayer. I would stay away from this foil for a while and wait for it to dip down a bit.

Rout – Since this has brand new art, and the art happens to center around Elesh Norn, I predict that many people will want the foil version of this art simply because they are fans of Elesh Norn. It is sitting around $20 right now, which I think is a fair price for a card that is really good in commander. It has the chance to dip down in price once the casual crowd has fulfilled their demand for the time being (the first year the product is out) but over time the foil version featuring this art could become quite collectable.

Coercive Portal – Even though it says that this foil is $20 on the sheet, I’ve checked on TCGPlayer and the foils are basically all sold out already. There were two listings left on Friday and they were at $50 and $220 respectively… hmm, what is going on here? Did someone find some tech for Legacy MUD decks that they want to utilize? Is this a better version of Nev’s Disk and/or Staff of Nin? I guess if you were able to buy the foil for $20, congrats you’ve made a killing on the price jump. I don’t think it’s staying there though. With regular copies being listed for around $2 on TCGPlayer I don’t see how this foil can be over $50 already so quickly. Wait for the hype spike to die down before trying to get foil copies of this.

Swords to Plowshares – Even though Swords has several foil printings already (judge promo, FTV 20, and FNM) the Conspiracy foil will be the first with the latest art that isn’t in the FTV foiling style. This will appeal to many players as the new art is quite awesome even if it isn’t Jeff Menges – Terese Nielsen is just as good, if not better right? $20 is a good starting point but I would expect this to climb higher as the years go on. Swords is always a solid card, just like Brainstorm, so foil copies whatever they look like will always be sought after.

Grenzo, Dungeon Warden – Grenzo is probably the most unique B/R card designed since Cauldron Dance. First of all, he is a B/R creature with an X in it’s mana cost – the first time something like this has been designed. Second, his activated ability is weird yet powerful. It makes your opponents think twice before casting Hallowed Burial or Terminus – or even Spell Crumple! Grenzo will break your guys free from the bottom of your library and put them right back into play. Price wise, at $19 for foil it seems a bit expensive at the moment. Wait a while for Conspiracy to continue to be released. Once his foil drops a bit then it will be the time to pick him up since his effect is so unique.

Altar of Dementia – A first time foil and a great casual card, Altar of Dementia foils will be sought after by those trying to foil out commander decks. I feel that $16 is a pretty fair price and that it will only go up over time. Once the foils start increasing, I could definitely see this going up to $40 and even surpassing it one day.

Dack’s Duplicate – A very unique twist on Clone. I love this card! Copying a creature with haste and Dethrone is no joke, all for that R in it’s mana cost. This is a great Clone variant and will be sought after for years to come. $15 seems like a great deal for foils of this, so I would look to pick up a few copies for your EDH decks and not let them go.

Edric, Spymaster of Trest – Edric is an awesome commander, but being banned from Duel Commander really stifles the price. $15 is pretty good for foil versions since Commander Arsenal versions are around $20. I can foresee this version hitting $20 over time and probably even going past it once the CA version starts to pick up steam. If you don’t have a foil Edric by now, I would pick him up as I don’t think over time he is going to get any cheaper.

Selvala, Explorer Returned – I’m not a huge fan of this card as I don’t feel it does anything spectacular. It’s no Rofellos and requires white mana to generate a bunch of green mana which is awkward. I like the life gain, however letting everyone draw a card seems kind of bad in G/W. $15 feels like too much, wait a bit for it to drop in price and then go in on the foil if you want her.

Magister of Worth – A great casual card, but the promo is really going to hurt the regular foil price for quite some time. Don’t get in on this foil for a while if you want a Conspiracy foil version. Instead trade it into another foil like Muzzio or Grenzo which are sure to go up over time.

Phage, the Untouchable – She is a reprint foil like several others on the list, so I would recommend picking this foil up only if you are looking for a bargain and not looking to make a profit on her some day. She’s only a collector’s item at this point as she can’t be a general and is really hard to get into play in a casual game. I’d rather have the original Legion’s foil as it is only $4 more.

Foils Abound

I think that looking at foils from Conspiracy will be much better in the long run than looking at non-foils simply because the price of all the non-foils will be severely depressed by the wide distribution of this product. My predictions could be severely off if this product is nowhere near as popular as everyone predicts, in which case if you decided to pick up regular copies of cards you would have made more money in the long run than picking up foils. However, I do think the product will be very popular and will be drafted for quite a while by casual players that make up the majority of the MTG population.

There are both competitive and casual foil targets that can be acquired that I think will only keep going up in the future. Conspiracy is an awesome set, and if Wizards decides to do something like this again then this first generation Conspiracy could even hold value based on being an original – just like the first Commander product and Duel Deck product command a premium. Only time will tell!

Casual Fridays

Hitting the Floor

June 13, 2014 Cliff Daigle 5 Comments

By: Cliff Daigle

Magic has hit the sweet spot in terms of how often its flagship, expert-level, story-filled expansions come out. We get three sets a year of varying size and draft format.

We know that the rotation out of Standard in September will offer us some tempting targets in trade, but here at the end of June, we face a different schedule: the end of a block being opened in Sealed and Draft. Theros block is pretty much gone, with Magic 2015 a month away and Conspiracy being an absolute blast to draft.

I refer you to the 6:2:1 model I posted about a few weeks ago. Even that small amount is about to be done, and that means supply is at its highest. Granted, there will be some players who crack boxes looking for singles, or retail stores that do the same, and there’s still redemptions online (until MTGO shuts down, I suppose) so the supply may creep upward a little, but not significantly.

The more money cards there are in a set, the more likely it is to be opened for the value of the singles, though this late in a set’s life, that’s a terrible and unprofitable plan under almost any circumstance. Better to spend a known amount of money and get exactly what you want, rather than open 36 packs and not even get a set of a certain uncommon.

So with this knowledge in mind, let’s look at what we should be trading for over the next few weeks. Theros block cards that have nowhere to go but up.

The Temples – Any temple under $5 is worth trading for. I will not be surprised if the UW Temple ends up in some Modern control lists, because free card selection is that good. Whatever the next block brings, there will be multicolor decks and the free scry has been shown to be worth it in Standard. I have trouble thinking that any temple will be under $10 around thanksgiving. Maybe the least popular of them all? Five dollars in trade right now will even be worth it in a year, because these are very good in the casual format of your choice

Thassa, God of the Sea – All of the Gods have reached a floor as the supply gets to its greatest point. Now, as cards are put into casual decks (and not traded away) that supply will get small and the price will start to go up. Thassa is the most likely to hit, because it’s the easiest to cast, has a free effect that’s very useful, and has already seen Standard and Modern play. I really like picking up any of the multicolor Gods that are under $5, as small set mythics they are going to go up in a spike or in gradual terms.

Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver – If Jace, Architect of Thought taught us anything, it is to pick up planeswalkers when they are cheap. Ashiok gives an inevitable way to end a game in any format, and remember, it wasn’t that long ago that Nephalia Drownyard was used as a finisher for control decks. I like picking this up around $8.

Elspeth, Sun’s Champion – If you even think you might be playing with her in the next year, pick these up now. At $20-$25 there is no lower price for her. She’s just too good, offering protection from creatures big and small. It’s not hard to imagine her hitting $30 or more in nine months, like Domri Rade did.

Xenagos, the Reveler – Notice a trend here? This is a card I’d trade for based on the casual appeal too, because that +1 ability is a multicolor Gaea’s Cradle. A free stream of hasty attackers is usually a good thing, and it won’t take much to make it break $15 before too long.

Anger of the Gods – $2 for a cheap and thoroughly effective sweeper? Yes please. I will not be surprised if this starts seeing more Modern play, due to the need to exile things like Kitchen Finks.

Hero’s Downfall – $7 for what is basically Murder, with some added and very useful flexibility. It seems high, I know, but unless they print this effect even cheaper, this is as good as it gets. Dreadbore doesn’t see as much play, and I expect Downfall to break $10 during Tarkir block.

Mistcutter Hydra – Regular or foil!! Doesn’t matter at all. This is the sideboard tech of choice in many Standard and Legacy lists. Can’t be countered, hasty, protection from blue. Checks every box for being a control player’s nightmare, as they always have to have a plan in place if/when this gets played. I would trade for these now, and trade away the nonfoils in a year, and keep the foils for longer. Nowhere to go but up!

Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx – I’ve preached this before and now this is at $5. It’s a shame that I don’t like to buy cards, because this is a steal now. Pick up as many of these as you can and just be patient. Even if they don’t go up during Tarkir block, the casual power of this card will allow it to increase over time.

Thoughtseize – Best disruption spell ever, now at its lowest price. If you can find them for trade, snap them up. Rarity is irrelevant here, we’ve seen how big the Modern demand is and this card was the most-needed reprint. Remember, it was $80 for a moment before being spoiled.

Courser of Kruphix – Yes, it’s $15 now for a rare. It has a backbreaking effect against aggressive or midrange or control decks. It gives card advantage, lifegain, and a cheap-yet-hard-to-kill body. This is going to be a big deal for the remainder of its life in Standard. $20 or $25 is not out of the question.

Mana Confluence – It’s down to nearly $10 and that is too low. The supply is too low, just for the casual demand. I would pick up as many of these as I could, $15-$20 sounds right to me, though that could go higher if the Modern combo decks start using this.

Master of the Feast – Three extra draws to get the right spell. They are dead otherwise, and this is a low-risk pickup right now. I wouldn’t mind having a couple of extra playsets, in case something combos well with it in Tarkir.

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