Casual Fridays

Uncontrolled Growth

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By: Cliff Daigle

Aaron Forsythe, head of magic R&D, was on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast two weeks ago. Among the many things mentioned on that show was that sanctioned Modern events have tripled in one year.

Tripled.

There were three times as many of these events held and sanctioned, meaning that this format is not only accessible, it is popular, despite the financial barrier to entry that has occurred in the past year.

Shocklands pushing $100. Tarmogoyf going up despite being in Modern Masters. Spell Pierce being a $2 common. The list goes on.

Commander has seen a similar set of price trajectories in the past year, with a range of cards spiking due to Nekusar’s popularity and the release of a second set of Commander decks. Some of the format ‘staples’ are at high prices due solely to the appeal of this ‘casual’ format. 

In many ways, these two formats have allowed Magic to have a period of sustained and substantial growth. More and more people are not only taking up the game, they are finding the ways to play that appeal to them. EDH brought back stacks of players, and when we returned to the game, we found that our old cards were worth enough to pay for our re-entry into this game.

I’ve said before that I’ve done my fair share of selling out. I wanted the cash instead of the cards. I’m likely to do so again.

When it comes to the growth of Magic, I’ve come to the conclusion that for the most part, reprints are not going to affect the price for long. Wizards has demonstrated that they want to err on the side of underprinting, and in some cases, being in a major set has not affected the price for long. Thoughtseize is going to be an exception, but it would not be surprising if that card regained a price level of $40 within two years.

While I can’t think of another game that waited until years 16-20 to start such a period of growth, I feel pretty good about the next couple of years. I don’t know if the next large fall set (a revisitation of an old one, if the pattern holds. Dominiaria? Alara? Zendikar?) will be the best-selling set ever again, but I can say that it will be fun to introduce new players that way.

As for some specific cards, I’m quite surprised at Athreos’s current price. We’ve barely started events with Journey, and until we start getting more results, I’d be happy to trade these away at $25 or so. It’s cheap and capable of being powerful, but what creature in Standard are we recycling for value? Perhaps that will be answered soon.

Mana Confluence is slowly trending down. It’ll be present in greedy control decks for the next year, but probably at a 2-or-3-of. I’m really surprised that with some decks not running basics at all Burning Earth hasn’t had a chance to shine. I’d pick up any Confluences around $10, but it hasn’t gotten that low yet. I would absolutely trade for them at $40 in value, though.

Foil Kruphix, God of Horizons is around $25 and I would happily trade for them at that price. The casual appeal for that card is measured in megatons.

Finally, a word about the judge foils recently announced, including Force of Will: These include some very chase cards, and I’m least surprised by the old-frame Sword of Feast and Famine. You may expect Body and Mind and War and Peace to follow, as Wizards knows collectors love their cycles dearly.

I do not expect many of these foil Forces to make it far. They are going to be snapped up quickly, and I’ll be watching the effect on the non-foil Forces. Terese Nielsen has put some legendary alters of this card on the market for those who needed to make their nonfoils more unique, so there’s some collectors who might not care at all.

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Will the market get flooded with nonfoils as people upgrade to foils? I don’t think so. I expect the nonfoil price to hold steady…with a good chance of it rising. Modern Masters taught us that when you bump the supply of a card, especially something that’s often a four-of, the demand can go up even more. We will have to wait and see.

I’d love to have one of the first judge foils, just to set the market on eBay!

City of Traders

Bizarre Oxen

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By: Travis Allen

Many of my American companions may not be aware that this past weekend was the Bazaar of Moxen over in Annecy, France. Never heard of it? France is that country in Europe that eve…oh, you’ve never heard of Annecy? Annecy is reminiscent of Venice, with can…oh, you mean you haven’t heard of the Bazaar of Moxen.

annecy

The Bazaar of Moxen is the largest annual Vintage and Legacy event. It’s held once a year over in Europe, apparently in Annecy, France. The BoM is comparable to the GenCon Vintage World Championships in scale. Last year at GenCon there were 232 entrants, while BoM9 just this weekend had 214. For an independent tournament without any of the unique Wizards prize support, that’s pretty dang amazing. Vintage in general is larger in Europe than it is here in America. For one, there are a handful of collectors that pulled a great deal of duals and power into Europe. It’s also a much more condensed land mass with better public transit, which means it’s easier to pull all the Vintage enthusiasts together for a weekend to tap some absurdly expensive cardboard. (Most decks are probably worth as much or more than your car).

BoM isn’t just Vintage though. They also run a Legacy event which draws quite a bit of attention as well. Given how much overlap there is in the card pool between Legacy and Vintage, this isn’t surprising. This week I’m going to flip through the results of this past weekend’s Bazaar of Moxen and see what jumps out at me. It’s rare to get such a confluence of strong decks and strong players in these two formats, so we should pay attention when we do.

Right off the bat I see a playset of Chalice of the Void. Chalice of the Void is barely $6 on MTGPrice right now. It has two printings, both with relatively little supply. The entire Mirrodin block was pretty severely underpriced relative to sets today and we all know Modern Masters was a limited run. Given how long CotV has been a mainstay in Legacy, and to a lesser extent Vintage and Modern, I think it’s completely safe to be snagging copies of these in trade. Modern isn’t quite as all-in on the 1-drop as Legacy is but CotV is still quite usable. We also don’t know what Wizards will decide to print in the near future that could push Modern to lean on 1’s a little more. At $5-$6, I’d be happy to trade for these.

Abrupt Decay has long cemented its place in Legacy and Modern at this point. It’s the pre-eminent not-STP/Bolt in their respective formats. Decay is now in the $10 range and it will be $15+ before too long. Don’t wait on this to drop at rotation this fall; it isn’t going to happen. All the demand for this card is driven by other formats so it’s departure from Standard will no have no effect on the price. I am 100% we will see it printed again in some other product, but I doubt it will be in enough volume to really matter too much. I wouldn’t go super deep but having several extra sets would be just fine. Foils are completely golden. Well, they were golden. Now they’re pushing $100 on TCGPlayer. That’s basically never dropping either. Did you grab yours when those of us on Twitter were advocating for it?

Elves has really come into its own in the last few months in Legacy, and a Top 8 at BoM certainly confirms what Sam Black and Reid Duke have been saying. I don’t know how much we can look to the Legacy list for opportunities, but keep an eye out for a similar strategy in Modern. Quirion Ranger and Birchlore Rangers seem like very important pieces we’re missing. Birchlore would let the deck generate mana other than green once it went off, which could be vital to a strategy that needs to pull a little power from other colors since the mono-pool isn’t quite as deep as it is in Legacy. If Birchlore ends up legal in Modern look for other cards in the deck that could see a bump. Beck//Call, perhaps? Maybe you don’t even need to wait on that one. Glimpse of Nature is a $20 card and Beck is $.50. Eventually Beck is going to be several dollars, whether from EDH or a combo deck somewhere.

I’m seeing Phyrexian Revoker, another cheap sleeper. Two Death and Taxes decks made Top 8, and both contained the full set. It shows up occasionally in various Modern lists as well, particularly, uh, Death and Taxes. With the word “Phyrexian” in the name it’s a tough reprint, so I’m a trader at $2.50. Crossing over into the Vintage lists quick, do you know what else I like? Lodestone Golem. He’s a big piece of the Workshop decks over there. He hasn’t done much of anything yet in Modern, but Modern still has all sorts of spicy pieces: Lodestone, Thorn of Amethyst, Trinisphere, etc. It’s also a place where the Tron lands are very playable and are totally ok with things like Thorn and Sphere. I’m not claiming it’s happening overnight but it’s something to be aware of. Artifact prison decks pop up in all formats at some point and Lodestone + Revoker seem like they’d be right there along for the ride.

On the topic of miserable little two-drops, Thalia is still only about $7 after her last spike. That just seems low to me. She’s eminently playable in every constructed format and printed in an unpopular winter set. I’m not saying she should be $20+, but $10-$15 seems much more reasonable.

Three of the Top 8 decks in Legacy were UWR Miracles. I like all three good miracle cards as pickups. Entreat the Angels is already $10 but will just keep climbing. We know demand for angels never really goes away and an angel card that sees real competitive play is just going to keep getting pushed. And that’s just as a two-of. Can it hit $20 next year? Terminus, on the other hand, is a full grip. Terminus is also an EDH staple at this point. At only a few bucks a copy this one is a solid trade option. There’s rumors it will be in FTV:Annihilation, but even if it is that’s more of a delay than anything else. FTV copies never do much to suppress the price of popular cards. It may take Terminus a few more months to keep rising than it would have, but it will still keep going. Finally there’s Temporal Mastery, the one good miracle that’s fallen out of favor for the time being. I chatted about it more a few weeks ago. The tl;dr is that it’s as good as gold. Buy, trade, steal, whatever.

Did you know that foil Spell Pierce is $40? That foil Terminus is $30? Foil Temporal Mastery is $20? Foil Blightsteel is $60? Foil Aven Mindcensor is $50?

Mindcensor is nearly $15 non-foil. I don’t like getting in on the bird though. It was an uncommon, which means when (not if) it gets reprinted its likely to be uncommon again. The price will be absolutely crushed when it does. It’s the type of card that could really easily show up in any expert-level expansion without doing much to Standard, which means its a very safe reprint. If you need them then grab your set, and foil copies are fine since they’re an alternate border, but don’t go deep on the non-foils.

Remember Darksteel Colossus? Yeah, neither does Blightsteel Colossus. He’s up to $15 at this point and isn’t going to stop. Putting him in a Commander product would be an odd development choice, so if he shows up again it would probably be in an FTV or something similar. I don’t think we’ll see a reprinting with enough volume to negatively impact his price, so feel free to grab these for cheap where you can. I would imagine many with this card will not realize his actual retail value.

One of the cards with the widest relative gap between English non-foil and JP foil? Ingot Chewer. 

The BUG fish list in Vintage had, not counting lands or sideboard, thirty cards that were printed (or reprinted) in the last few years. Chances are that if you have a reasonable Modern collection you’re only a few pieces of Power away from a Vintage deck. That’s obviously not cheap, but Power is a perfectly fine investment as it is. If you’re going to sink a few hundred dollars somewhere, putting it into a few pieces of Power that will appreciate in value and also allow you to play Vintage at the same time is not the worst decision you could make.

I don’t see Ancient Tomb getting reprinted again anytime soon. Don’t feel bad picking up your copies if you need them.

Two cards that still aren’t on the reserve list are Force of Will and Mana Drain. Someone mentions this every so often, and speculation on them appearing as judge promos or FTV includes pops up. I don’t know which it will be, and I don’t know when it will be, but it’s got to happen eventually, right?

There was a lot to take away from this year’s Bazaar of Moxen, and I only just scratched the surface. I think the most important thing to notice is just how sweet looking Vintage looks. While I think Legacy is going to bottom out down the road, Vintage is already near it’s floor of activity. The only division between a Vintage deck and a Legacy deck is Power, and those are good investments as it is, so you should consider bugging your LGS owners about starting up a ten-proxy Vintage event once a month.

The Gilded Goblin

Journey Into Nyx Event Deck

By: Jared Yost

Journey-into-Nyx-Event-Deck

At the time of each set release I like to review that set’s event deck to see if it is worth it for you to go out and procure that deck based upon the uncommons and rares that Wizards decides to design the deck around. You are not going to win many FNM’s with the deck but it is an easy way for you to boost your collection of more powerful utility cards that could see play in Standard or in other formats. Let’s take a look at Journey into Nyx’s event deck to see how much value it can provide you.

Decklist

Lands
9 Island
4 Izzet Guildgate C
12 Mountain

Creatures
1 Ætherling R
1 Battlefield Thaumaturge R
1 Chandra’s Phoenix R
3 Guttersnipe U
1 Ogre Battledriver R
1 Oracle of Bones R
4 Spellheart Chimera U
3 Young Pyromancer U

Other spells
1 Anger of the Gods R
2 Divination C
1 Fated Conflagration R
2 Flames of the Firebrand U
1 Harness by Force R
4 Lightning Strike C
3 Magma Jet U
1 Mizzium Mortars R
2 Searing Blood U
1 Steam Augury R
2 Turn // Burn U

Sideboard
2 Dispel C
2 Elixir of Immortality U
3 Essence Scatter C
2 Flames of the Firebrand U
3 Izzet Staticaster U
3 Negate C

Analysis

Let me say this right away – you are not buying this deck for the rares. The rares in the deck are very underwhelming. They couldn’t even include Temple of Epiphany or Steam Vents (I guess it was too much hoping for Mana Confluence) to help smooth out your mana? Lame. The wasted rare slot prizes go to Ogre Battledriver, Oracle of Bones, Fated Conflagration, Harness by Force, and Steam Augury. All of these rares can be had for $0.50 retail and are basically bulk rares on TCGPlayer.

The other rares, while nice, also don’t provide you much value. One could argue that Battlefield Thaumaturge is highly underrated right now and its price could go up in the future. Barring this, there is no single card in the deck that is worth more than $4. Mizzium Mortars has been printed in an event deck before (Return to Ravnica) so there are plenty of copies out there to suppress its price. Aethering is a cool, flashy card however it is never played as more than one copy and is barely breaking $1.50 retail. Anger of the Gods is a great Modern card but does it really need a reprint now at $2.50? Chandra’s Phoenix already has two printings in addition to this event deck so I’m not exactly thrilled about its inclusion even though it is $3 – let’s be real, the price wasn’t going any higher regardless of its inclusion in this event deck.

The heart of this event deck is the uncommons. There are so many juicy uncommons. I had to do a double take when I saw that they were including three Young Pyromancer and three Magma Jet and three Guttersnipe – each of these uncommons are worth more than half the deck’s rares. In addition to this, two copies of Turn // Burn and Searing Blood also looks appealing. Spellheart Chimera, Flames of the Firebrand, and Izzet Staticaster are all popular uncommons and the deck includes several of each. Elixir of Immortality is a popular casual uncommon but it has been printed several times already so it is the least exciting uncommon in the deck.

MSRP of the deck is $25. Based on the retail value of the singles, what is the deck worth?

Total value of cards individually:

1 Izzet Guildgate C @ $0.26 each
1 Ætherling R @ $1.67 each
1 Battlefield Thaumaturge R @ $2.12 each
1 Chandra’s Phoenix R @ $3.24 each
3 Guttersnipe U @ $1.06 each
1 Ogre Battledriver R @ $0.44 each
1 Oracle of Bones R @ $0.42 each
4 Spellheart Chimera U @ 0.30 each
3 Young Pyromancer U @ $2.58 each
1 Anger of the Gods R @ $2.34 each
2 Divination C @ $0.13 each
1 Fated Conflagration R @ $0.45 each
4 Flames of the Firebrand U @ $0.17 each
1 Harness by Force R @ $0.53 each
4 Lightning Strike C @ $0.45 each
3 Magma Jet U @ $0.95 each
1 Mizzium Mortars R @ $3.06 each
2 Searing Blood U @ $1.12 each
1 Steam Augury R @ $0.44 each
2 Turn // Burn U @ $0.50 each
2 Dispel C @ $0.19 each
2 Elixir of Immortality U @ $0.40 each
3 Essence ScatterC @ $0.22 each
3 Izzet Staticaster U @ $0.26 each
3 Negate C @ $0.19 each

Total Value: $39.89

This Seems Wrong…

This value is very misleading even though technically it is correct according to retail. Many of the cards in the deck are commons and uncommons and could probably be picked up for way less than the retail price that MTGPrice reports. If we look at just the rares they add up to only $14.71. Desecration Demon and Hero’s Downfall, when they were reprinted in the Born of the Gods event deck, were together worth more than all the rares in this deck combined. That tells you a lot about how terrible most of the rares in this deck are. This also means that the uncommons and commons add up to $25.18 retail. It’s pretty sad when an event deck’s commons and uncommons are worth more than its rares.

This deck is way less powerful than its Born of the Gods counterpart. I included every card in the deck barring basic land, even the cards which would probably be considered bulk and valueless, and it still didn’t even come close to the value of the BNG mono-black event deck. Sure, if you were to buy each individual part of the deck retail it would cost you more than if you just bought this deck as a package at $25 MSRP. However, most players are looking to pick up event decks so that they can get some of pricier Standard rares while also being able to pick up any chase commons or uncommons from the newest set. Here, you’re only really getting good uncommons, which unfortunately I’m guessing that anyone who plays Standard already has. It’s really aggravating to think that there aren’t even any Journey into Nyx uncommons in the deck which are what people need to pick up when the set comes out, another blow to the deck’s already terrible build from a financial perspective.

Regrettably, when uncommons are reprinted it is much more devastating to the price than rares. Since there are already tons of Young Pyromancers, Guttersnipes, and all the other uncommons in the deck out there already, adding more of them to the pool will suppress their prices. This makes me think that the retail value I calculated above for the uncommons will only go down over time since so many of each are included in the deck. You really only want to buy the deck if you don’t have the uncommons and I’m guessing most players already have them. This is a disappointing event deck.

Casual Fridays

The Cards You’ll be Sick of

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By: Cliff Daigle

Journey into Nyx has given us some very interesting cards to use in casual formats. Some of them will be niche cards at best, but others are going to see a lot of casual play even if their price isn’t very high.

I’m going to rate these based on what I’d do if I opened these at a Release Event, with the set still new and prices high.

Ajani, Mentor of Heroes

This cat does it all, unless you’re losing. His lack of board impact means NOTHING to the superfriends decks, the ones that play almost every Planeswalker and Doubling Season. (Except Tibalt. No one plays Tibalt.)

This Ajani not only completes the two-color combinations for Planeswalkers, he digs for those friends quite quickly. You’re going to sigh when he lands, because he’ll grab another annoying card almost immediately.

I don’t see this making a big splash in Cube, it’s a bit slow for that, but if you can get $25 in trade I’d make such a deal. A warning: as a mythic PW in a third set, he’s got a very real chance to spike hard during the next block. Better to take the sure thing, though.

Prophetic Flamespeaker

I admit I misread this card. I thought you’d be able to cast it without paying the mana cost. Instead, we get the pseudo-draw of Chandra, Pyromaster. In the next year, in Standard and in casual games, you’re going to have to correct someone how it works far more than you want to.

Even with that, it’s a card with both double strike and trample, a combination that has only been on Dragon Tyrant so far. (Someone forgot Greater Morphling. -ed.) Any equipment, any pump spell, and this guy is ready to set the world on fire.

Kruphix, God of Horizons

For all sorts of reasons, this is going to be a popular card in casual games. Fun color pair, enables big spells, no maximum hand size…and indestructible on top of that. At first I thought it was lame that the mana became colorless, but then I realized that if the mana kept its color, you’d need many colors of dice to keep track of what was still being saved.

Exiling enchantments has never been more necessary in EDH games, for this God and its kin.

Worst Fears

I understand why this needs to exile itself after use. I’ve seen Mindslaver/Academy Ruin locks and Wizards wanted to avoid adding another one of those. I do like the point-and-click nature of this spell: No warning, no chance to get Krosan Grip-ed before use…just take their turn. Done.

I think this is going to be the card that keeps its price higher than expected for a while, like Primeval Bounty in M14.

Dictate of Erebos

Grave Pact is a little rough on the mana with triple black, and others can see it coming. Giving it flash means that the surprise value is going to be very, very high. Having some iconic art (especially in foil!) doesn’t hurt at all. I don’t think this is going to be a Standard player, but it will be a mainstay of kitchen table Magic for quite some time.

What to Grab

I told you last week to trade everything you open, but at certain prices, there are things I’d try to trade for this week in the release event (All prices as of Wednesday):

Mana Confluence at $15 – I will be surprised if the big MC goes below $15 for its time in Standard. The foils are at an appropriately ridiculous price, indicating the appeal of this card in casual/pimp formats. I’d be happy to pick these up at $15 in value, because it won’t go below that for very long, if at all.

Temples at $6 – The two temples of Journey into Nyx are going to be the rarer ones, as I’ve covered before. I think $6 is a great price point for lands that I’ll be trading away at $10 in the middle of the next block.

What to Ship

Godsend at $13: While the effect is neat and there’s a chance of Legacy play in the True-Name Nemesis matchup, it’s just too much mana. More likely this settles in around $7 for the casual crowd.

Prophetic Flamespeaker at $10: While I think you’ll see a lot of this card, it won’t hold this price for long. A spike is possible, since it’s a mythic, but the safer play is to get out now. If it hits $15 in a year, oh well. Look at something like Deadbridge Chant to see the other path it could take.

Good luck at your events!

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