Commander 2014 Price Tracking – Part 1

By: Jared Yost

I’m going to take a look at the most valuable singles of the Commander 2014 decks to see if there is anything currently undervalued now that the set has been in stores for several months and has been widely distributed.

Since there is plenty of information to cover, I’m going to split this into two posts. Part one will cover the white and blue decks. Part two will cover the black, red, and green decks. 

Forged in Stone

Let’s start with the white deck first, since it makes sense from both a color wheel perspective and because this deck contains the Legacy staple that Wizards decided to include amongst the decks of this type of product – Containment Priest.

Containment Priest – Surprisingly, this card is at an all time low of $16 right now from its high of $24 back in November. You could have even paid potentially more than that if you needed her the weekend of Grand Prix New Jersey, which unfortunately happened within a week of the Commander 2014 release.

containment priest price history

My feeling here is that if True-Name Nemesis can’t even hold a $20 price tag than neither can Priest. Speaking of which, True-Name Nemesis seems like a great pick up right now since they are a recurring Legacy staple and have fallen steeply in price since their $50+ heydays. Containment Priest won’t follow the same pattern though, since she is a sideboard card in Legacy rather than a main deck threat like TNN. As more Commander 2014 is released, the price only stands to stagnate or even drop further. I would avoid Priest unless you need them for Legacy. 

Nahiri, the Lithomancer – I’ll say this right up front. I’m a fan of all the planeswalkers from this set because they have several qualities that I like in long term pickups.

  • Only one printing (though this is a mass distributed product, I still feel this attribute is important in this case)
  • Completely new planeswalkers that haven’t been seen before
  • They are tied into the lore of Magic very closely, and they included throwbacks to Teferi and Freyalise which is awesome
  • Unique Commander appeal, due to a slight rules twist that allows these planeswalkers to be played as generals
  • Decently strong effects, since they are the headlining cards of their respective pre-cons

For all these reasons, plus the fact that they are all in the $5-$7 range, I believe that the planeswalkers from Commander 2014 are all solid pickups as singles. I have a feeling that Teferi and Daretti will become the most valuable in the long run however each planeswalker will grow in time from casual demand.

Grand Abolisher – Grand Abolisher actually didn’t take that much of a nose dive in price compared to some of the other cards that were reprinted in Commander 2014. It went from $4 to $3, a drop of 25% but not that large in the grand scheme of things. I believe that the casual is strong with this card, and that eventually it will start climbing up again in price until the next reprint. Now is a great time to pick up Abolisher if you even wanted one as they won’t get much cheaper than this. 

Sol Ring – Sol Ring has finally been printed so many times that it is now around $3 per copy. I really don’t think Ring is a great place to put your money anymore. Wizards has proven that they’re going to print this card in every single Commander pre-con that they make, so players aren’t going to be looking for copies that often. Foils are another story, however I feel that regular Sol Rings are past their price prime due to being reprinted into oblivion. 

Masterwork of Ingenuity – Cute card, but its price drop to $2 indicates to me that players aren’t clamoring to get extra copies of Equipment to use for their own schemes in Commander games. I don’t think this has a home in Legacy because it is too narrow (and also because Stoneforge Mystic is so good) so future demand isn’t coming from there. Not the card you want to buy enmass for future gains. 

Angel of the Dire Hour – This card has potential to me, especially at $1.50 and lower. If you can pick these up for $1 or less then I think you will do quite well in the future. Angels are a popular casual tribe and this angel is awesome removal that leaves behind a big, flying body. I”ll be picking up extra copies of in trades and other deals. 

Pearl Medallion – The medallions are a great addition to any mono colored Commander deck, so even with the reprint they will continue to gain value over time. The Tempest copies haven’t been drastically affected by the mass C14 reprint, so even if you have the old school version you didn’t lose that much value (due to the new art and card look compared to the old version). I feel like each medallion has entered its low point going into the $1.50 and less range. I will be looking around for extra copies to trade into and buy for all the colors.

Hallowed Spiritkeeper – Spiritkeeper’s future price is going to be hard to guess, as I feel that the price is very cheap at $1.30 and lower. Yet, I just don’t feel like this card will ever have a home in eternal formats like Legacy. Eternal formats are partially what drives the increase in the price of cards, other than casual demand, and I don’t really see much appeal to this card that would drive casual demand. I’m not going to be buying any, but I will keep my eye on this card going forward as the effect is strong and may possibly be desired in the future. The card provides nice wrath protection, at the very least. 

Peer Through Time

Next up in the color order is the mono blue Commander deck, which many view as the weakest deck in the lot. From what I hear, players aren’t really buying the deck in favor of the others due to the weird nature of this deck revolving around large sea creatures.

Teferi, Temporal Archmage – Along with Freyalise, Teferi is the only other planeswalker in the set that is around $7 retail. From what I hear on the ground, players really want to pick up Teferi. I mean, that last ability is a casual players magical christmas land. Giving all your Planeswalkers instant speed activations for all loyalty abilities is one of the Johnniest things you can do. Think of all those triggers that will allow you to control the game, no matter whose turn it is! Think of all those tricky things you can do when responding at instant to speed to something with a planeswalkers ability! Think of all the ultimate abilities that will go off with so many counters being placed so quickly!

So of course, Teferi is going into basically any deck (Commander or casual) that utilizes lots of planeswalkers for maximum value out of all the loyalty activations. Out of all the planeswalkers, I like Teferi the most due to his unique ultimate ability that allows you to have instant speed loyalty abilities. I believe that $7 is the floor for this ‘walker and that he will only be going up from here. 

Thran Dynamo – Despite having two other reprints in supplementary products, Thran Dynamo is still going strong at $5 and higher retail. Like Sol Ring, I don’t think Dynamo is where you want to be for future gains, however I can’t deny that this card has huge casual appeal from all the Timmy’s that want to play their eight drops on turn five. I won’t blame if you pick up a bunch of extra copies but just be wary that Wizards does reprint this card from time to time. Interestingly, they only reprinted it in Peer Through Time, which could be the factor keeping the price at $5 and higher. 

Reef Worm – A great casual card; I will be watching this for any future declines. If it goes below $2 I will be very interested in getting my hands on some copies. This is a card that screams casual to me, so I think it will always have fans in the future that want to abuse the effect. Yet, I think that this is a very slow gainer since you need to do some work to make the card great. 

Sapphire Medallion – See my Pearl Medallion review above. Sapphire is the highest priced medallion at $2.50 retail, and even though it is higher priced than the others my thinking still applies. I believe that Sapphire Medallion will be a long term gainer just like all the others. 

Cyclonic Rift – One of the most powerful sweepers that blue has received for Commander, Rift will always maintain value due to its power in the format. Though it currently sits at $2, there will be room to grow for this card until the next reprint. I even like foils of this card at $10, as it is a staple in pretty much every blue Commander deck. 

Rite of Replication – Like Rift, this is a super power spell that will most of the time win the player the game if it is cast at the right time. My same thinking applies for Rite as it did for Rift, even for foils which are around $11 retail. Actually, that seems pretty cheap for foils from Zendikar compared to Return to Ravnica. Zendikar has been out of print for a while, so I’m surprised the foil price of Rite of Replication isn’t higher. 

Nevinyrral’s Disk – Since this card has received so many reprints, I don’t think we’ll ever see it go above $2 again. I would stay far away from Disk from a financial perspective. It got hit hard by the double Commander reprint, and even if it does start climbing again I feel that this will continue to be reprinted in products like Commander.

That’s It For This Week

I plan on tackling the commons and uncommons of Fate Reforged for my next article, since the full set of Dragons of Tarkir has been spoiled. However, don’t fret dear reader! I will continue to work on this two-part series to make sure that I’ve identified the cards from all the Commander 2014 decks that I’d like to talk about.

What are your thoughts on Forged in Stone and Peer Through Time? Are you looking out for any specific singles from the decks in order to boost your collection or finish a deck? What do you think of the retail value of the products long term? From a sealed perspective, I’ll personally be looking to find undervalued sealed product for long term gains. Though I’ll have to keep in mind that the Commander 2013 decks are still around $20 per copy on TCGPlayer, which is much lower than their original MSRP of $35…

WEEKLY MTGPRICE.COM MOVERS: March 15th/15

By James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

5 Winners of the Week

Most of the movement this week is coming from the ever-shifting Theros/Khans standard format, with new cards ascending and some old favorites slowly falling from grace. Let’s have a look at what’s up:

1. Master of the Unseen (Fate Reforged, Rare): $2.00 to $3.73 (87%)

It should come as no surprise that the week after this card dominated the finals of Grand Prix Miami it is suddenly in high demand. Some are worried that the G/W Manifest deck is the new boogeyman of standard, but I suspect that the metagame rolling into the release of Dragons of Tarkir will keep shifting and ensure that variety is still the defining element of the season. That being said, this is a winter small set rare, it fits into a bunch of decks, and therefore may be able to hit $4-5 before it rotates in winter 2016. As such, I’m ignoring the voices calling to sell and advocating a clear hold on this card looking for further profits. Of course if you were smart enough to stockpile at $.50, by all means do as you will.

Format(s): Standard

Verdict: Hold

2. Citadel Siege (Fate Reforged, Rare): $0.62 to $1.04 (68%)

Add this one to the list of underrated Fate Reforged rares that are just going to work in Standard lately. The ability to tap something down on the attack or drive home more points of damage via the application of counters provides a ton of versatility, though in the U/W Control builds that are running it, the tap function is king. I have no interest in outing cards under $3-4 period, so I’d recommend holding this one for a while if you are sitting on them as U/W could just be getting started in Standard.

Format(s): Standard

Verdict: Hold

3. See the Unwritten (KTK, Mythic): $3.00 to $4.70 (57%)

As noted last week, this is rising on the premise that either Dragons or Eldrazi will make it an essential component of a deck before it rotates next winter. I’m holding until September and you should likely do the same unless this pushes into the $6-8 range early, in which case, go for it since it won’t ever find a home beyond Standard play anyway.

Format(s): Standard

Verdict: Hold

4. Thassa God of the Sea (Theros, Mythic Rare):  $4.81 to $7.08 (47%) 

As detailed last week, Thassa and Master of Waves have both gained well in anticipation that Blue Devotion will once again be a deck. Depending on how early you got in on your copies, you could easily be looking to out by now, but I’m holding because I believe the deck will make a Top 8 before it rotates and lock in stronger profits.  As one of the better Theros gods I’m also fine holding these for the longer term as necessary.

Format(s): Standard/Modern/EDH/Tiny Leaders

Verdict: Hold

5. Karrthus, Tyrant of Jund (Alara Reborn, Mythic): $11.91 to $15.24 (28%)

With all the dragon hype leading into the release of Dragons of Tarkir, it’s hardly surprising to see some of the better casual dragons rising. Karrthus is one of the baddest of the bunch, and I’d feel comfortable selling into the hype if I had any lying around as it’s unlikely to enjoy much more of a bump once the summer doldrums hit.

Format(s): Casual/EDH

Verdict: Hold

 

 3 Top Losers of the Week

1. Soul of Theros: $7.82 to $3.61 (-54%)

Soul of Theros got its’ moment in the sun in the Soul/Whip decks earlier this season, but the deck isn’t seeing much play these days, and rotation for M15 isn’t too far off, so I’d expect this to keep sliding down towards bulk heading into summer. Time to sell.

Verdict: Sell

 

2. Stoke the Flames: $4.95 to $4.42 (-11%)

Don’t get it twisted. This is still the best spell in Standard, and will be for a few more months, but it’s natural for it to be shedding some value heading towards rotation. Unload your extras soon, because this doesn’t have a future beyond Standard.

Verdict: Sell

3. Monastery Mentor: $25.28 to $22.89 (-9%)

This card is seeing play in multiple formats, but it’s not dominating anywhere. I think foils are still the key play, but I’m also hoping for a moment of weakness this summer shortly after the release of MM2 when we can swoop in and scoop up regular copies in the $12-15 range for future returns above $30 a few years down the road. The card is very, very good and just needs the right pieces to pair it with in any given format to be a great move.

Verdict: Sell (to buy in later)

 

Quick Hits

  • I’m having trouble imaging a better spec than Abrupt Decay at present. There are plenty of copies around $12 lying around. Sure, it was $6 a year ago, but it will likely be $20-25 by next year and there isn’t a reprint coming until at least MM3 which may or may not appear in summer 2016, depending on how the MM2 release goes. Either way, if you’re fooling around with long shots (as I tend to) and don’t have many of these stashed away yet (As I do) you might want to rethink where you’re parking your money.
  • Snapcaster Mage is appreciating VERY nicely and pretty much right on schedule. Many of us were stockpiling around $20 at rotation, and now have easy outs for a double up. This was the last Abrupt Decay, get it? If you’re holding, you can wait for a possible $70-80 peak within the year, or just get out now and reinvest into something with a bigger upside, like say Abrupt Decay.
  • With the currency shifts between the USD, Euro and Canadian dollar, there really are a lot of arbitrage opportunities to be had on big ticket items if you’re willing to do some math and shop by phone across borders. Get to it.
  • If I have to choose between the Dragons of Tarkir planeswalkers I think you’ve got way more upside trying to snag Sarkhan around $20 than you will buying into Narset above $30.

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

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MTGFinance: What We’re Buying/Selling This Week (March 14th/15)

By James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

One of the most common misconceptions about folks involved in MTGFinance is that we are constantly manipulating the market and feeding players misinformation to help fuel achievement of our personal goals.

It recently occurred to us here that though we dole out a good deal of advice, most of you ultimately have very little insight into when we actually put our money where our collective mouths are pointing. As such we’ve decided to run a weekly series simply breaking down what we’ve been buying this week and why. These lists are meant to be both complete and transparent, leaving off only cards we bought without hope of profit, where appropriate. We’ll also try to provide some insight into our thinking behind the specs, and whether we are aiming for a short (<1 month), mid (1-12 month), or long (1 year+) term flip. Here’s what we were up to this week:

Buying Period: March 8th -14th, 2015

Note: All cards NM unless otherwise noted.

James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

BOUGHT

  • 8x Descent of the Dragons @ $2.10 per
  • 14x Descent of the Dragons @ $3.15 per
  • 4x Descent of the Dragons @ $3.25 per
  • 28x Dragon Tempest @ $1.55 per
  • 8x Dragon Tempest @ $1.05 per
  • 8x Sidisi, Undead Vizier @ $4.15 per
  • 16x Master of the Unseen @ $2.00 per
  • 2x Tasigur, The Golden Fang (Foil) @ $24.15 per
  • 1x Command Tower (Judge Foil) @  $22
  • 3x Duress (IDW) @ $3
  • 1x Faithless Looting (IDW) @ $3

SOLD

  • 3x Duress (IDW Promo) @ $13 per ($3 cost)

I’m going relatively deep on Descent of the Dragons and Dragon Tempest on the basis that a lot of people are underestimating their combo potential in Standard alongside the long overlooked Battlefield Thaumaturge and mana dorks. The deck shell is basically based around a fairly normal Temur early game that suddenly transforms into an instant kill. Basically if you have 3 creatures in play, with Thaumaturge being one of them, and a Dragon Tempest in play, you put 12/12 worth of Dragons into play and instantly do 9 points and then attack for 12. This can happen as early as Turn 5. The deck can lean on Sarkhan Unbroken, Hour of Need and Stormbreath as backup plans and just play a more midrange game if the pieces aren’t drawn fast enough. I predict that the deck in some form hits at least Tier 2 in Standard, and an on camera appearance should be enough to double the price of both cards. If it fails to perform however, these are pretty bad long term specs as their future in other formats may be dubious at best.

Sidisi, Undead Vizier is my pick for one of the top 3 cards in Dragons of Tarkir, as his power level seems extremely high. With DoT facing a longer rotation schedule than the last two sets, there is a good chance this card tops $8-10 at some point in it’s play life.

As for Tasigur, my early call that he was underrated has come true, and I now expect this guy to be a multi-format player for many years. As such, I’m still buying foils while selling my non-foils.

There was a run on the judge foil Command Towers this week, and I managed to snag a copy before the price spikes.  I also managed to snag a few additional copies of the IDW promos via back issues at my local comic shop.

On the sales side, a pretty quiet week, but I did sell into the buyout on IDW promos by unloading a handful of the  Duress at a triple up, with several more held back to test the new price plateau.

Travis Allen (@wizardbumpin)

BOUGHT

Short/Mid:

44x See the Unwritten @ $1.25

Mid

  • 10x Order of Whiteclay @ $1.93

Long

  • 8x Aggressive Mining @ $.20
Travis says:
“With Battle for Zendikar on the horizon for fall 2015, players are going to be excited about See the Unwritten in conjunction with Eldrazi. It doesn’t even need to end up being good for there to be a great selling window; we just need people to be excited about it for long enough to get out.
I wrote Order of Whiteclay down as a Tiny Leaders spec a few weeks ago. The other day I noticed there were very few copies left on the retail circuit, so I picked up some on eBay to follow through.

Aggressive Mining is a cool potential combo piece that was cheap from a vendor I was already buying from.”

Guo Heng Chin (@theguoheng)

Nothing to report this week.

Jared Yost

Nothing to report.

So there you have it. Now what were you guys buying and selling this week and why?

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

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My Upgrades From Dragons of Tarkir

By: Cliff Daigle

I play a lot of Commander games. I used to play even more, but with my family’s growth the last couple of years, my EDH time isn’t what it used to be. Nonetheless, I keep my decks updated when new sets come out. I usually tell people to know what they will take out before you go and add new cards, but I usually end up getting the new card and then figuring it out.

I am working from an incomplete spoiler. Next week, I’ll be completing the list and targeting prices.

I can’t remember if I have introduced you to my six decks, so here we go!

Existing Commander Decks

Commander: Adun Oakenshield
Philosophy: “Creatures rule!”

This deck has six noncreature spells: Lavalanche, Xenagos, the Reveler, Garruk, Caller of Beasts, Green Sun’s Zenith, Lurking Predators, and See the Unwritten. Everything else is a creature, and I want to focus on spell-like creatures in this deck. Mostly, it’s enter the battlefield effects, but I keep some others around like Viridian Zealot in case of Torpor Orb.

Commander: Kaalia of the Vast
Philsophy: Wreck some face!

I have spent the time and energy and money to get this manabase ‘perfect.’ There’s three fetches, three duals, three shocks, three filters, three buddy lands…you get the idea. This is my most competitive deck, capable of the fastest kills, and the most expensive, due to the Angel foils that just keep climbing! I have a mix of Angels, Dragons, and Demons because I don’t want to choose just one!

Commander: Garza Zol, Plague Queen
Philosophy: Shiny Vampire Control

I didn’t intend for this to become my all-foil deck, but it happened. I kept finding shiny replacements, and then it was just a few cards…and now it’s done. The vampire tribe is surprisingly strong, dating back to 2011 Standard: Bloodghast into Nighthawk into Nocturnus can end even Commander games fast. I’ve got a lot of fun and flexible control cards, and my MPR cards are here too.

Commander: Sliver Queen
Philosophy: For the Swarm!

This is my token deck. I try to have about a third of the cards be an army contained on one card, including Planeswalkers that make tokens. Everything else contributes to big mana and winning more. It’s five colors but light on nonbasics, so I use a lot of green mana fixing.

Commander: Experiment Kraj
Philosophy: Incredible abilities without going infinite

While I have lots of fun ways to untap Kraj for profit, I’ve shied away from any infinite-mana shenanigans. I found that style of deck to be unfun. The best card in here is probably Reveka, Wizard Savant, as a great way to deal damage.

Commander: Balthor the Defiled
Philosophy: Rise and rise again!

This zombie tribal deck is a lot of fun, as I have lots of mass reanimation and that’s what the general is for as well, sorcery-speed mass return. The combination of Vengeful Dead and Noxious Ghoul do a lot of work, and a sneaky-great zombie is actually Gutless Ghoul, giving a sacrifice for profit.

Pickups from Dragons

dragontempest

Dragon Tempest – Kaalia decks are going to love this card. Very few Angels, Demons, or Dragons don’t have flying, and having Kaalia enter with Haste is quite awesome. This will be a strict upgrade over Fervor for me. I will be trying to get a foil around $3-$5, but this will be a bulk card before long.

shamanofforgottenways

Shaman of Forgotten Ways – I’ve tried Somberwald Sage in decks in the past, and found it underwhelming. Acceleration and fixing are not as needed in 99-card formats. The additional ability on this, though, is an ability that has been deemed too good on a sorcery: Biorhythm. I will be picking this up from every trade binder I see it in. I want regular ones around $5 by the end of April. The foils will probably not go below $20 for a while, if at all.

sidisiundeadvizier

Sidisi, Undead Vizier – Just amazing in my zombie deck. I’ve no shortage of things to Exploit for profit, and this is something I’ll be happy to do over and over again. This appears to be good enough for Standard, so I think it’ll stay between $5-$10 for the next couple of months. Foils should easily be $15, if not more.

sarkhanunbroken

Sarkhan Unbroken – I will put one of these into my Sliver Queen deck, because of the token ability. I will never ultimate this, since there aren’t any Dragons in that deck. The first two abilities are just so good, you’ll need to have him in a dedicated Dragon deck to ever really have the ultimate be worthwhile. I think this is one of the best cards in Standard, if you can cast it, and I have a hard time thinking this will be less than $30 at any point. I want a foil, but I’m not going to drop $100 on it.

risenexecutioner1

Risen Executioner – Another easy addition to my Balthor deck, as it’s a zombie lord. I might sometimes pay the tax on recasting this, but mostly it’ll be there alongside Cemetery Reaper and the like. I think this will be a bulk mythic fast, and the foils should hover around $5.

silumgarscommand (1)

Silumgar’s Command – I’m already playing Spite//Malice and I’m trying to decide if this is good enough to be included as well, or if I’ll just be replacing it. I’ve got Countersquall as well, so I’m going to try and fit this in. Bloodlord of Vaasgoth just isn’t pulling his weight…

I expect this command to be around $1/$4 for the foil, and I’m okay picking it up at that price. The modes are good enough that I think it’ll keep value for a while. The ‘noncreature spell’ part is most relevant, as there’s few enough creatures that need countering. That’s what Wrath effects are for.

Those are the five cards I’m planning on adding, next week with the full spoiler I’ll talk about some of the cards that are almost there, and the ones you’ll see a lot in casual games.

On an unrelated note, I want to clue you all in to Channel Fireball’s “Yard Sale” and a finance trick I’ve been using for years.

Full Disclaimer: I don’t work for Channel Fireball, though I do live in driving distance of their shop. This month, they are having a series of sales, and it’s the sort of thing that Star City has done, and other sites too. Systematic sales are your chance to exchange cards at a fair rate with full value.

Allow me to explain. Normally, when you deal with a vendor, you are never going to get the full retail value of your card. You’re going to get around 40-50% of its value in cash, and maybe 70-80% if you choose store credit.

These wide-scale sales allow you to get cards at enough of a discount to make it tempting to trade directly with a store. Here’s an example:

Hero’s Downfall has a Fair Trade Price of $7.54 as I write this. Anafenza, the Foremost, has a FTP of $7.81. I would happily trade my Downfall for your Anafenza, since it’s so close in price. However, lots of people are savvy to the fact that Downfall is going to rotate out in a few months and tank in value, while Anafenza has nowhere to go but up as a Standard card and a Tiny Leaders powerhouse. So you would have trouble finding someone to make this trade with.

Enter the vendor’s sale. Channelfireball will give four dollars in cash for Hero’s Downfall, with a 30% bonus for store credit ($5.20) and their sale currently has Anafenza down to $5.99. This is not perfect, as you see, but it’s pretty close and it’s an effective tool to use when a vendor decides to hold a sale.

You don’t have to spend the store credit during the sale, but doing so allows you to treat a vendor as a trading partner who gives nearly equal value, which is something that doesn’t happen often. Enjoy!


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MAGIC: THE GATHERING FINANCE ARTICLES AND COMMUNITY