Weekend Update

Weekend Update for 9/27/14

6 Comments

By: Jim Marsh

Every week, some cards from Magic the Gathering increase and decease in value based upon a number of factors.

Let’s take a look at some of the cards whose values have changed the most and the factors behind why those changes have occurred.

10 Big Winners of the Week

10. Battlefield Forge (10th Edition)
From $5.13 to $5.56 (8.38%)

M15 drafting has officially come to an end. More packs will be opened of course but it will be a trickle compared to the past few months. Why open a core set when there are wedges and fetchlands to release into the wild?

Battlefield Forge will be used in decks that want consistent mana early on and do not intend the game to continue for long.

Mardu will want to use it in aggressive decks.

Jeskai will want it for the combo deck featuring Jeskai Ascendency that everyone is trying to make happen. I am kicking myself for not picking up a few play sets at $2 each but such is the life of a Magic financier.

Modern Boros Burn and Jeskai Twin decks have also used a couple copies to supplement their mana base so demand will never go to absolute zero.

This will keep the lands in demand but with so many printings it can only get to about $7 or so. This means you can hold onto copies you already own and wait for the price to creep up but there is not enough room to really advise trading for Forges.

9. Temple of Malice (Born of the Gods)
From $5.22 to $5.66 (8.43%)

Slower decks in Standard will want to forego the pain and can make use of the scry lands. Temple of Malice is better served for Mardu midrange or Grixis control strategies.

I have even seen some deck brewers tinker with Temple of Malice in Jund aggro and Burn strategies.

Temple of Malice comes from the much maligned Born of the Gods so there are very few of them compared to the Theros temples. This does not convince me that Malice is going to go much higher than $7.

I still feel the smart money would be going for the Journey into Nyx temples.

Temple of Epiphany would be for Jeskai Midrange or Control. Temple of Malady is perfect for a grindy Abzan deck.

8. Purphoros, God of the Forge (Theros)
From $6.31 to $6.90 (8.43%)

Purphoros is primed to make an impact in Standard. We now have Raise the Alarm, Triplicate Spirits, Hordeling Outburst and the potentially terrifying Empty the Pits. He also pairs up brutally well with Bloodsoaked Champion.

He already seems some play in variations on Boros Burn, Gruul Chord and Red Devotion decks.

Modern has seen him shoe horned into Soul Sisters and abusing Norin the Wary. Some Birthing Pod lists include him in the seventy five.

He is not only a legendary creature but a god and that is going to go a long way towards making him a staple of kitchen tables for a long time to come. I really do not see any downside to hoarding some copies and potentially some good upside.

7. Mikokoro, Center of the Sea (Saviors of Kamigawa)
From $10.69 to $11.74 (9.82%)

Mikokoro is a legendary land that is used sparsely. It is sometimes seen in Modern Hatebear, TurboFog and Enduring Ideal decks.

It is best utilized in decks that create situations where the extra cards cannot be used effectively.

It allows you to pile on the card advantage when paired with Spirit of the Labyrinth and activated on your opponent’s turn after their draw step.

It is yet another group hug card for every Nekusar, the Mindrazer deck.

The decks that run copies only need one or two copies. They are fairly fringe decks with the exception of HateBears but it has not really been making waves lately. This is going to continue to grow slowly but steadily but I do not see a reason to rush on getting copies.

6. Kiora, the Crashing Wave (Born of the Gods)
From $17.97 to $19.91 (10.80%)

Kiora wants to help midrange and control decks accelerate or buy enough turns to establish the battlefield.

It can be used in a wide variety of decks. Temur Chord and Monsters decks are the most likely. Sultai Mindrange and Control decks could used her in generating additional card advantage. It will require a skilled pilot but will be a powerful strategy.

Kiora has even seen very limited eternal play. Restore Balance in Modern and Punshing Sultai in Legacy have both played with it.

Foils have recently jumped from $36.36 to $47.79 over the past few weeks.

She does not have the power level of Xenagos, the Reveler so I do not see why she has the same price tag. Her supply is significantly lower but the decks that do want her are content with only one or two copies.

I would trade her away into the hype.

5. Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver (Theros)
From $9.82 to $11.00 (12.02%)

Ashiok had been a $7 card in the not too distant past. It can be a powerful finisher in decks that are grinding out victory with card advantage.

Ashiok will be used in Sultai and Grixis versions of Midrange and Control decks.

Its second ability will be well served by efficient wedge creatures whose power is much more efficient due to strenuous mana costs. Ashiok just sees a free Mantis Rider for three loyalty counters.

Ashiok has been a $20 card before. I think a few tournament results and some price memory will be able to push it back into that range.

I would trade for them given the opportunity. This is especially true if people still think of it as a $7 to $8 card.

4. Soldier of the Pantheon (Theros)
From $3.05 to $3.49 (14.43%)

Soldier of the Pantheon will be playing dual roles for the coming year.

As a 2/1 for one mana with quasi-evasion it is as aggressive a threat as you can possibly ask. The same protection combined with the life gain clause will allow midrange decks to hold off much larger threats once it becomes outclassed.

How many one mana creatures can endlessly hold back Savage Knuckleblade or Surrak Dragonclaw?

The focus on wedges will give Soldier of the Pantheon another chance to shine. This will help it get past $4 soon.

Soldier of the Pantheon was a rare in a heavily drafted large set and was included in an Event Deck. This will probably keep it from hitting $5.

Time your outs and trade them high. Hopefully you picked them up as toss ins when they were below $2.

3. Flames of the Blood Hand (Betrayers of Kamigawa)
From $5.08 to $5.97 (17.52%)

Can you believe these were under $2 only two months ago?

Eidolon of the Great Revel really put burn on the map.

Shocklands and fetchlands are as cheap as they re ever going to be. This has allowed more players to transition from Standard to Modern. New players in a format tend to gravitate towards budget decks and known archetypes while they get used to everything.

Burn decks are both. They are also a gateway deck from Modern into Legacy. Both versions of the deck rely on a lot of the same staples.

This has been pushing up the value of cards for the deck. You can still grab Fire and Lighting copies for the same price. Modern and Legacy players love foils so I would get those instead.

I would also keep my eyes open for foil copies of Skullcrack. It is only $5 and plays a similar role to Flames at one mana cheaper. Prices are down due to Standard players offloading them for rotation.

2. The Rack (Antiquities)
From $5.51 to $9.51 (72.60%)

Players have been trying to make The Rack work in Modern for a while. Liliana’s Caress was more efficient than Megrim but The Rack is often a Lava Spike with rebound that you only have to pay for once.

Return to Ravnica gave us Shrieking Affliction. Foils of it can still be found for $2 and you should jump on those.

Waste Not from M15 may have finally given us the critical mass of cheap effects that bump discard from a rogue deck to fringe play.

Who does not want free zombies, cards and mana for playing Raven’s Crime over and over?

The rack was $4 only a month ago.

The only foil version of the card is from Time Spiral. I see it on eBay for $8 and I see vendors offering $10 for it. There is something there. Grab these. You will be glad you did.

I would also play both sides and grab some cheap Obstinate Baloths.

1. Sorin, Solemn Visitor (Khans of Tarkir)
From $11.98 to $27.40 (128.71%)

We all know that pre-release prices are guaranteed to be inflated. This is especially the case with planeswalkers since retailers do not want to be sitting on the next Jace, the Mind Sculptor.

It is normal for Planeswalkers to pre-order high and to sink back down to reality as they are introduced to the rigors of actual play.

It is unusual for one to jump up like Sorin does. He can be a slower Talrand’s Invocation which is great in limited but not really that exciting in constructed play.

His +1 makes racing impossible and makes token decks happy. He provides a free Cruel Feeding for your entire team.

He is going to be seeing some experimentation in Mardu Tokens and Orzhov Midrange. He seems custom made to team up with Brimaz.

He is already $30 so how much higher do I think he can get? The answer is still the same as any other Planeswalker at release. Trade him away as soon as your draft is over.

There is a 90% chance you will thank me for that later.

5 Big Losers of the Week

5. Courser of Kruphix (Born of the Gods)
From $17.28 to $16.03 (-7.23%)

Courser is still a fantastic creature. He will be played in every single deck with access to green mana and he just makes fetchlands seem unfair.

He is going to be in Abzan Control, Sultai Midrange, Jund and Naya Monsters not no mention RG Chord and probably more.

He is even showing up in Modern Jund, Birthing Pod and GB Rock decks.

The problem is that he is in the Clash Pack. Courser cannot maintain a $20 price tag when you can go online and order a Clash Pack for $22 that gives you a Courser along with a lot of other good cards like Nykthos and Prophet of Kruphix.

I doubt he will go down much further because he does provide incredible value but his ceiling does not provide much room to grow. He is a fatnastic place to store value and will be very liquid if you are looking for something to trade for.

4. Tidespout Tyrant (Dissension)
From $7.25 to $6.67 (-8.00%)

Tidespout Tyrant was one of the top targets in Legacy Reanimtor and Food Chain decks.

Unfortunately those decks only need a single copy each and neither have really been doing very well in the metagame.

It is still a bomb in Commander but with so little play and so much competition at the top from Griselbrand and Emrakul I think Tidespout has had its day. I would trade these away.

3. Birds of Paradise (8th Edition)
From $5.45 to $4.84 (-11.19%)

Despite being one of the most printed rares in the history of Magic I still feel Birds are underpriced.

They are a staple in Modern Melira Pod and any green decks that want a variety of colors right off the bat. Its role has become diminished since the widespread adoption of Noble Hierarch but it is still one of the best one mana creatures ever printed.

It is a tremendous way to start enable Jeskai Ascendancy Storm to win on turn two.

It is a staple in Commander, Cubes and casual decks the world over.

Foils can command a premium. Did you know that the 7th Edition Foil buylists for $85?

You can still buy some cheap regular copies as low as $3.51. I would stock up. I think M16 will feature Birds of Paradise and really help the wedges shine.

Even if that is not the case the day will come when it will be back in standard and prices will jump to $10 for a copy. In the mean time you can always move them to your casual friends.

2. Blood Moon (8th Edition)
From $19.65 to $16.57 (-15.67%)

Blood Moon is a powerful sideboard card that punishes greedy manabases and shuts down powerful lands like Gavony Township and Tectonic Edge.

The printing of more fetchlands in Modern makes it slightly worse but it will still hold a place in powerful decks.

Modern uses it in Affinity, UR Delver, Twin, Red Deck Wins and Pyromancer decks.

Legacy uses it in Jeskai Miracles, Sneak and Show, Imperial Painter and it plays a crucial role in Goblin Stompy.

Copies from The Dark can be had on ebay for as little as $20. This is a steal considering some vendors are currently listing them for as much as $45.

1. Brainstorm (Friday Night Magic)
From $109.99 to $85.17 (-22.57%)

There used to be two ways to get foil Brainstorms and both had the same artwork.

Conspiracy came around and introduced a fresh new supply for a fraction of the cost of the older and scarcer copies.

Brainstom is still one of the best draw spells ever printed and is a frequent addition in decks that run blue.

Legacy uses it in OmniTell, Sultai Delver, UW Miracles, ANT and more.

The recent SCG Legacy Open in Atlanta on 9/14/2014 featured twenty four copies in the Top 8.

It is only a common but it is a staple that will be played until it is banned. Legacy players will need four copies and will want foils for their decks.

I think the Mercadian Masques foil will maintain much of its value for being an old frame foil of a set that was opened in such small numbers compared to the sets today.

FNM copies lost their luster as the Modern frame version. Conspiracy provides a ready and cheaper supply. I think it is instructive to see that earlier this year FNM foils were only $20. I do not think it is going back that low but you should get out before we find out how low it will go.

Casual Fridays

My Long-Term Targets

2 Comments

By: Cliff Daigle

Disclaimer: I haven’t read Jared’s two–part piece on this, and I won’t until after this posts. I like my impressions to be my own.

It’s rotation time! I’ve written recently about the cards that I’ve picked up from Theros block, and now I’m going to share my list of things to trade for to fill my long-term binder. Most of these cards are popular in casual formats, and I’m looking to pick these up and sock them away for a year or two. If they aren’t reprinted (this is always a concern) then their value will slowly creep up over time.

The example of this is Tamiyo, the Moon Sage. When Avacyn Restored rotated out last year, she could be had for $8-$10 as she was traded away from control players. In the year since, she’s climbed to nearly $15, while seeing not much play in Modern. She’s very good in Commander and deserves consideration in Cube.

Capture

So my goal is to identify the cards that are cheap now, but have good room for growth in the next couple of years.

M14

Garruk, Caller of Beasts (Now $7, aiming for $10+)

This is the easiest call of all. M14 was under-opened due to Modern Masters, and Garruk hasn’t had a chance to shine in Standard. He’s got a shot in Modern, I’ve seen some ramp lists that use his minus ability to drop Progenitus onto the battlefield, but it’s in casual formats that he makes his hay. It’s a plus ability that will likely draw you 2-3 cards, and action cards at that!

Getting him at $7 is a steal. The growth won’t be fast, but it will grow. It’s unlikely that this will be reprinted in the coming Commander product, making it one of the safest bets on this list.

Scavenging Ooze (Now $5, aiming for $8+)

This was $40 at one point, when it was in a single edition of the 2011 Commander decks. It’s got a promo version hanging around, and it is one of the best ways to deal with graveyard shenanigans in casual formats. You can exile anything, but you only get bonuses if it was a creature. Every Commander deck needs a way to interact with graveyards, and this is one of the best.

Kalonian Hydra (Now $7, aiming for $10+)

This ticks two boxes on the ‘makes casual players giddy’ list: it’s a Hydra, which is a surprisingly expensive tribe to build. It is also a counter-doubling card, and it is amazing at that. Its price has been slowly ticking downwards, and it might get to $5 in the next few weeks, but I’d be comfortable getting in at $7 and then just being patient. Anyone building a new Abzan Commander deck is going to want one of these in the worst way.

 

Rise of the Dark Realms (Now $3, aiming for $7-10)

We aren’t lacking for ways to clear the board in casual formats. This is a very unique spell, requiring only nine mana, as opposed to Liliana Vess’s ultimate or the buildup of Grimoire of the Dead. Since you get everyone’s creatures, all it takes is one effect granting Haste and it’s over. This is one that I’m afraid of getting a reprint, since it’s so thematic with Liliana.

Dragon’s Maze

Progenitor Mimic (Now $2.50, aiming for $5)

The mythics from this set are what you really want to watch, as the maze runners were intro pack foils. Progenitor Mimic is the neatest of the bunch, offering tokens and copies together.

Gatecrash

Shocks at $8 or less (aiming for $12-$15+)

There is a huge supply of shocklands out there. If you needed them for Modern or Cube, you already got what you needed. I cannot overstate the supply of these cards, and there’s a good chance that lots of people have saved a few shocks for decks that are yet to be built.

With that in mind: We’re at a floor for these cards. They are not going to go up quickly. They are probably not going to be printed in Modern Masters 2 next summer. I don’t know when they will get printed again, but they will get a new print run eventually. The key is then to get them now, cash them out in a year or two, and move on.

Foils are a different matter, being in the $30-$40 range right now. I am aggressively trying to trade for these, as foil prices are never going to be this low again. Even if they are in a new Conspiracy set or the like, that won’t be for a long while and these foils will be at least $10-$20 more within a year.

Master Biomancer ($3, aiming for $6)

I think that it’s only a matter of time until this and Beck//Call blow Modern open into a combo deck. Until then, this is very low-risk to sit on.

Aurelia, the Warleader ($5, aiming for $8-10)

I’ve spoken of her before. Case in point: Gisela, Blade of Goldnight is $11 now. Aurelia will be there in a year or two.

 

Enter the Infinite ($1, aiming for $5)

This even sees some Legacy play in some OmniShow builds! Getting a stack of these at near-bulk is a fun bet, and at this price, even a modest increase can pay off big.

Be wary of trying to cash out a bump all at once: what Travis has referred to on Twitter as ‘pulling a Ghave’ in reference to his article.

Thespian’s Stage ($1, aiming for $3)

I don’t need to repeat myself again, do I? I’m keenly aware of the ease of reprinting this card, but the huge gap between regular and foil ($1 vs. $13!) tells me this is one to watch.

Return to Ravnica

Shocks at $7 or less (aiming for $10-$12+)

See above, but RtR shocks are slightly lower in price, perhaps more of it was opened than Gatecrash? If only we had real numbers.

Sphinx’s Revelation ($7, aiming for $15+)

It’s seeing Modern play and I’d need a very good reason not to play it in Commander or Cube. I’m not going to go too deep, but having a playset or two will be very nice in a year or so.

Chromatic Lantern ($4, aiming for $7)

That’s right: This is the 9th–most valuable card in Return to Ravnica at this point. It’s casual gold and it’s only going to get better from here on out. You’ll never see a spike, but you will see incremental growth until it gets reprinted.

That’s a ‘when’ it gets reprinted, not an ‘if’. I wouldn’t be surprised if Modern Masters 2 had all ten filterlands, plus this, in order to support a heavily multi-color set. There are a couple of cards out there that are better at helping a five-color deck (Prismatic Omen, Joiner Adept) but they aren’t artifacts.

 

Rest in Peace ($1, aiming for $5)

This is another card with a striking foil price. Part of that is Terese Nielsen, who does consistently fantastic work, but this is a big card in Modern and Legacy sideboards. I like regular versions at $1, but the foil seems like an easy pick to be $20 (up from about $11 right now) in a year.

Ash Zealot ($1, aiming for $3)

So Eidolon of the Great Revel is a four-of in Burn decks? Ash Zealot is a fine follow-up to Goblin Guide if you want to do a lot of damage quickly. (No, really: three damage from them fetching into a shockland, then you GG and Zealot, and they are at 11 when they start turn 2.) Eidolon may be the new guy tearing up the charts, but Zealot was there immediately and will keep seeing play. Keep some around and just wait.

Enjoy release weekend!

 

 

City of Traders

MTGO and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Trading Market (Pt. 1)

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By: Travis Allen

Welcome to part one of a two part series. These two articles are going to explain exactly how Magic Online’s trading system is foundationally flawed because it ignores the very economic nature of Magic cards. The progress will be as follows: In the first article, we will learn what a commodity is in terms of the marketplace and then we will see how Magic cards behave as commodities. In part two we will see how MTGO fails to treat Magic cards as such, and finally examine a possible solution. We hope that a breakdown of the issue and a presentation of a potential solution will encourage Wizards to make similar changes in future versions of Magic Online.

When your car needs gas, how do you decide where to fill it up? Do you have a specific gas station you go out of your way to visit because their gas smells like flowers, or because it’s organic, or it fits into your gluten-free lifestyle? Or instead do you just pull up to the nearest pump that takes credit cards whenever the light on your dashboard turns on? If you’re like most Americans, you have little or no allegiance to a particular location or brand of gas station. The right gas for you is whichever happens to be closest. Why is it that you don’t bother to make a point to use one particular location, especially when we live in such a brand-oriented culture? It’s because when you pull the handle on that eighty-eight octane pump you know that the dead dinosaur gushing into your car’s hungry coffer is the same there as it would be from any other of the eighty-eight octane pumps in America.

Have you ever shopped for art? Unless you know the specific piece you want it can be time consuming, intimidating, and expensive. Let’s say you decide that a wall in your apartment is looking rather bare. You’re not sure what you want, just that you’d like to hang a piece of art there. If you live in a metropolitan area and/or you’re wealthy you may hit up the local galleries to see what’s available for purchase locally. Most internet denizens such as you and I won’t have the funds to purchase originals like that though, so we hit up Google and plug in “art.” Lo and behold we find ourselves at art.com. “Alright,” you think, “time to buy me a sweet piece of wall candy.” As you begin scanning the page you realize this could be a big project. The splash page is separated into categories – landscape, abstract, vintage, photographs, etc. You’re not even sure what type of art you want. An abstract series of cubes and circles? A photograph of a stunning waterfall? An artist’s rendition of the Grand Canyon? A replica of a famous painting? A horse? Mapplethorpe? Regardless of what you’re searching for, one thing is for sure: you’re going to be browsing a lot of photos before you find something you’re happy with. There’s no way to get around it; you simply have to view hundreds or thousands (or if you’re me, tens of thousands) of images before you can be content with your decision. 

This consumer-oriented perspective on the dichotomy of gasoline and artwork illustrates just how different purchases on opposite ends of the commodity spectrum behave. On the one hand a good like gasoline is, for all intents and purposes, identical from one vendor to the next. The gas you pump into your car at the Sonoco in Maine is basically the same as the gas you get from the BP down in Louisiana as it is the same as the gas at the…whatever gas station chains exist in California. On the flip side of that, artwork is wildly different in character from one piece to the next. If I take your 2’x2’ photograph worth roughly $300 and replace it with a different 2’x2’ photograph worth roughly $300, you would be really annoyed. They may have similar physical dimensions and market demand, but it’s the content of the image that you care about.

Let’s step back a little bit for a better view of the bigger picture. Common parlance is that a commodity is a good or service which is interchangeable with another good or service of the same sort. (In other words, a commodity has a high level of fungibility.) An ounce of copper is basically the same as any other ounce of copper, as far as the market is concerned. As long as that ounce of copper falls within a certain set of specifications, it doesn’t really matter who I get it from. I am only interested in the price, because the copper itself will not be much different from vendor to vendor. As Marx once said, “From the taste of wheat it is not possible to tell who produced it, a Russian serf, a French peasant or an English capitalist.” There are many basic commodities. A few examples (that I’m stealing from Wikipedia): iron ore, crude oil, coal, salt, sugar, tea, coffee beans, soybeans, aluminum, copper, rice, wheat, gold, silver, palladium, and platinum.

Some of those examples may strike you as a little odd. Gold comes in different purities, so not all gold is equal, right? And you know for a fact that there are more types of coffee than is humanly possible to count at this point. Why are those commodities?

Instead of thinking of things in black and white – commodity or not commodity – think of it as a scale. On the one end, you have your goods like crude oil. On the other end is original paintings. In between are various levels of ‘commodification.’ The less differing factors between one product of the type to the next, the more of a commodity it is. For instance, laptops have a low commodity value. Due to the customizable nature of the internal hardware, such as the amount of RAM or cpu speed, there are untold variations that exist even within a single brand. When considering purchasing a laptop, there is far more to consider than the price.

Moving up the commodity scale a bit we would find iPhones. These are more of a commodity for a few reasons. For one thing, there is only one brand. Within that brand there are various epochs – iPhone 3, 3g, 3gs, 4, 4s, 5, 6, etc. Then within each of those is differentiation between color, storage space, and possibly cellular network. Once you settle on one though – perhaps a Verizon-enabled black 32gb iPhone 6 – they are identical to each other. It doesn’t matter whether I buy the Verizon-enabled black 32gb iPhone 6 from Best Buy or the Apple store, I’m getting the exact same thing. Once you’ve settled on a specific model, it becomes a question of who will sell it to you cheapest. In fact, because instances across a model number have no differentiation at all, Apple has to impose price floor restrictions on them so that competition between vendors doesn’t drive the price into the dirt.

The nature of commodities is such that the markets in which they are sold is a bit different than your common markets. As you move up the scale towards a greater level of commodification, the ability to differentiate your product from another becomes more and more difficult. When you reach a point that the only real difference between your product and a competitor’s product is the price, you end up in a commodity market. 

In a commodity market, all buyers and sellers come to the same place. It begins with an agreement of standards. A consensus is reached on the quality of each good, for example the purity of gold in a bullion. Once everyone in the market knows that everything they buy and sell will meet a certain threshold of quality, it becomes a question of price. Sellers advertise how much they’re selling their gold for and buyers can advertise how much they will pay for gold. Anyone can come to market and immediately see how much a gold bullion will cost, and how much they can immediately get for their own gold. Commodity markets typically find a price equilibrium very quickly since all data is publicly available and there’s a high volume of trades.

Now we understand commodities a bit better. The more interchangeable a product is with a replacement for it, the more of a commodity it is. How does this apply to Magic cards?

Anyone who is reading this is extraordinarily aware that Magic cards are not interchangeable. Prices on unique cards vary from “firewood” to “down payment on a house.” You don’t want to walk into a store and say “I’ll take one pound of Magic cards please.” Yet each named Magic card is nearly fully fungible with another of the same name. This NM non-foil M10 Lightning Bolt is the same as any other NM non-foil M10 Lightning Bolt. The names of Magic cards are sort of like model numbers. They uniquely differentiate one card from another, but cards with the same model number are identical, controlling for condition, set, and the foil characteristic. (You can think of the difference between a non-foil and a foil of the same card as the difference between a 32gb iPhone 6 and a 64gb iPhone 6.) Magic cards are unique across names, but individual instances of a specific name are nearly 100% commodities.

Chances are you’ve actually seen and used a pseudo-commodity market for Magic cards, although you may not have been aware of it. TCGP acts as an aggregator for many vendors selling the same cards. Plug in Savage Knuckleblade and you’ve immediately got a large list of everyone selling their Knuckleblades, with the cheapest price listed first. If you’re a buyer, this is pretty darn close to a commodity market. What’s missing is the typical “buying” list, where you can see all the prices people will give you for your copy. That service is available here at MTGPrice of course. All the buying/selling doesn’t happen under one roof though, so it’s not really a full-fledged commodity market.

The reason TCGP has been so successful in it’s market niche is because they were the first intelligent way to buy Magic cards. Why should I have to go to websites for Troll and Toad, SCG, and ABU to look at prices for the same card? They’re all selling the same damn thing. Having to visit individual retail spaces for the same product is time-consuming and inefficient as a consumer. I’m likely to not end up with the cheapest possible price on the card. Meanwhile, the vendors are not only competing on the price they can offer you the card for, but also how good they are at marketing to consumers. SCG is obviously the best at this, and the result is that they charge more money for the exact same product because they know people will come buy from them simply because theirs is the only storefront some players are aware of. Meanwhile ABU and other vendors are offering the cards for less money but are selling less copies than SCG because consumers are unaware of their options. On a whole, the Magic market was quite inefficient before TCGP popped up. It’s better now, but it still isn’t perfect. Paper Magic isn’t really likely to reach true efficiency either, at least not in the next few years. There is too much vested interest from SCG and the like to move to a true commodity market system.

Magic cards want a true commodity market. While paper Magic has moved in that direction over the last few years, I doubt we’ll ever truly get there. Without a unified location for market agents to buy and sell cards, consumers will always need to visit individual storefronts. The companies behind those storefronts will always want that, because once you’re at their storefront they can attempt to sell you extra things, expose you more to their brand, attract you to their events, etc etc.

In order for a market to fully embrace a commodity there really needs to be some central hub where the buying and selling occurs. That doesn’t exist in paper Magic, and is unlikely too.

You know where it does exist though? Magic Online.

Join me next week as we take a look at how Magic Online has failed to treat cards as a commodity and how it might look if they did.

 

The Gilded Goblin

RTR Block & M14: What I’m Targeting for Rotation Part 2 of 2

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By: Jared Yost

Welcome back to my rotation review everyone! Last week I covered cards from Return to Ravnica and Gatecrash that I think have long term appeal, either through casual demand or eternal playability. This is the second part to my rotation review that will cover Dragon’s Maze and M14. The best time to start looking for these deals is about two to three months after the latest set has been released in order for the prices from the old rotating sets to really dive.

The organization of the review is as follows:

Sets

  • Return to Ravnica (previous article)
  • Gatecrash (previous article)
  • Dragon’s Maze
  • M14

Order of Rarity for Sets

  • Mythic
  • Rare
  • Uncommon (if applicable)
  • Common (if applicable)

Foil vs Nonfoil – Mentioned per card if applicable. I will mention foil prices if the card has ubiquitous Commander or Eternal appeal.

Today I will finish the review, covering Dragon’s Maze and M14.

Dragon’s Maze

MYTHIC

 

Voice of Resurgence

FORMAT – Modern

Voice of Resurgence is the most expensive mythic from Dragon’s Maze, currently sitting around $18 retail. However, this price is misleading since you can find many for sale for around $13-$15 on TCGPlayer.

Voice is clearly the most powerful card from the set for eternal formats but he suffers from the same problem as Sphinx’s Revelation. That is, at best he is played as a two-of in Pod. Kibler managed to get a Top 8 playing four Voices in his Junk deck back in May of 2013 which is cool. Unfortunately, Voice hasn’t made a showing in that deck since then and the demand from Voice is coming only from Pod variants at this point.

Definitely wait before you pick up this card. His current price is heavily driven by Standard so there will be plenty of deals after rotation on Voice. I think if you can pick these up close to $12 or less that will be a great deal for the long term. I don’t see him ever going below $10 for long and he only stands to gain in the future as long as Pod isn’t banned in Modern.

Foils will be especially good in the long term. It is a huge buy in at $60 yet I don’t see the foil price budging too much upon set rotation. $50 for foils seems like a good deal if you can swing it after rotation.

 

Ral Zarek

FORMAT – Commander, Casual

Up next is Ral, currently sitting around $7 retail. I don’t think he can drop much further after rotation. If you can snag copies from $4-$5 a few months after rotation I think that will be a great deal. Planeswalkers are always a good long term investment because they will trade / sell well from casual demand alone.

 

Progenitor Mimic

FORMAT – Commander, Casual

Progenitor Mimic is one of the better clone variants out there. It provides a ton of value if left unchecked which makes it good for the Commander format. Being mythic will also help buoy the price going forward. It is pretty cheap already at $2.50 retail. I don’t think the floor is much lower than this so if you can snag copies for $2 go for it.

Foils will be an especially good long term investment. The $13 current retail for foils is low for a third set mythic that has lots of Commander appeal. Focusing on foils is also a good strategy with this card.

 

Savageborn Hydra

FORMAT – Commander, Casual

Wizards seems to be pushing green’s creature identify toward Hydras these days since I’ve seen so many pop up, both in and out of Greek themed sets. Let’s take a look at some other Hydra prices from the past:

Khalni Hydra – $13 TCGmid
Apocalypse Hydra – $9 TCGmid
Primordial Hydra – $6.50 TCGmid (despite two printings Primoridal Hydra still above $6!)

Looks like mythic rare hydras do quite well in the long run even with more than one printing. Pick up Savageborn Hydras because they will follow in the same vein.

 

Master of Cruelties

FORMAT – Commander

The only reason I mention Master of Cruelties is the popularity of Kaalia as a general in the Commander format. Connecting Master of Cruelties with someone in Commander is the definition of “the nuts”. $2 for nonfoil versions seem like the bottom for this card. I don’t think it is going to experience giant spikes in price for quite some time however the mythic rare status will ensure it maintains value going into the future.

Foils are also a good pickup for Kaalia or other Commander players looking to foil out decks.

RARE

 

Breaking // Entering

FORMAT – Casual

Mill cards are in the realm of casual and I am greatly familiar with how well these cards trade and sell to casual players. Right now, this card is a solid $1 retail without seeing a lick of tournament play (except maybe in a rogue Modern mill deck or something). Pick up copies and stash ‘em away for the future when they’re worth $2 or more.

 

 

Guild Champions (Not in Intro Decks)

FORMAT – Commander, Casual

OK, so first lets get the foils in the Dragon’s Maze intro decks out the way so you know not to target them – Lavinia, Teysa, Exava, Ruric Thar, and Vorel. There are an overabundance of these foils on the market so you shouldn’t target them since the intro packs will stabilize the pack foil price for quite some time. I think I might make an exception for Vorel though since his ability involves doubling counters which is a popular casual mechanic. $1.50 is pretty cheap for his foil, I don’t think it can get lower than that. However, his long term gains are going to be stifled by the intro deck foil so avoid picking up too many copies.

Forget about Emmara Tandris, too. Her ability is awful and reputation as a card tarnished beyond repair. I doubt she will ever be even close to $1.

Alright, so of the four remaining maze champions I believe that foils of Melek, Tajic, and Varolz will do the best in the long term and that nonfoils of Mirko Vosk are great targets. Varolz is currently the highest foil at $3.50 retail, with foils of Tajic at $3 and Melek at $1.50. These are all great buy in points that won’t budge much after rotation.

Mirko Vosk’s ability is all about mill, which we know the casual players salivate over. Foils of this will also gain nicely but non-foils will move much easier and will still gain value.

 

Plasm Capture

FORMAT – Commander

The closest we’ve come to Mana Drain, Plasm Capture is a great card for Commander and is included in many blue/green commander lists. Foils will be especially good pickups for the future.

 

 

Notion Thief & Beck // Call

FORMAT – Modern?, Legacy?

Notion Thief and Beck // Call are the penny stocks of Dragon’s Maze. They have some appeal in Commander but could potentially derive their future price from play in Modern or Legacy lists because they are powerful depending on the metagame.

Beck // Call doesn’t really have a deck right now. However, as more cards are added to Modern, Elves may eventually come together and Modern Elves could be a thing again. Notion Thief is played in decks already though generally just as a one-of in the sideboard.

If you plan on playing Beck // Call or Notion Thief in Modern or Legacy rotation will be a good time to pick them up. However, these are pretty risky calls so I won’t pick up too many copies of either card.

UNCOMMON

 

Unflinching Courage

FORMAT – Commander, Casual

Sadly, this slightly worse version of Armadillo Cloak is worth more than most rares in the set. I am still going to tell you to get your hands on some, including foils. Uril Commander decks will want to include this card and it is an uncommon from a third set that wasn’t opened much. You won’t be making a killing off Unflinching Courage though it will still be a solid pickup upon rotation.

 

Wear // Tear

FORMAT – Modern, Legacy, Commander

Wear // Tear is a widely played card in UWx lists in Modern, is played in UWR Delver Legacy sideboards, and is a great inclusion for any red/white Commander decks. This is the most versatile artifact/enchantment destruction spell we’ve seen in a while at a very efficient mana cost. I don’t think we’ll be seeing the fuse mechanic for quite a while so pick up copies here and there when you can as throw-ins for trades. Foils are also good targets at $9.50 since I believe they only stand to gain more value in the future from eternal and Commander play.

M14

MYTHIC

 

Archangel of Thune

FORMAT – Modern, Commander, Casual

Archangel is the most expensive mythic from M14. Standard does drive some of her demand however a lot of it comes from casual appeal. Casuals love angels, and due to this her price has never dropped below $15 even though she sometimes never saw any Standard play.

In the future, she will pop up from time to time in certain Pod lists that make use of her infinite combo along with Spike Feeder yet much of the demand will always be casual. I’m not sure if she will ever drop below $12 so if you can pick her up from $12-$15 I think she will trade well after rotation. Foils are a pricy $35 but will also do well.

 

Planeswalkers (All)

FORMAT – Commander, Casual

All the Planeswalkers from M14 are $5.50 to $8 at this point. Pick up Planeswalkers closer to the bottom of that range and you will do fine after rotation. All the Planeswalkers are powerful or popular and will maintain value from the casual crowds.

 

Kalonian Hydra

FORMAT – Commander, Casual

See my review for Savageborn Hydra from Dragon’s Maze in this article. Another mythic rare hydra, another great casual target for the long term. Kalonian has a higher buy in point than Savageborn at $7 but if you can pick them up for $5 or less they should do well in the long run.

 

Rise of the Dark Realms

FORMAT – Commander

This is a great Commander card that will have a ton of appeal in the future. Foils are also a good target for these going forward.

 

Darksteel Forge

FORMAT – Commander

Darksteel Forge was getting close to $20 before the M14 reprint. Now it is little more than $2.50 for an M14 version. This seems criminally cheap to me. Pick up copies of this and wait for it to break $5 or more in a year’s time.

RARE

 

Mutavault

FORMAT – Modern, Legacy, Commander

Mutavault is an incredible card, there’s no denying that. It hit highs of $40 earlier this year and has dropped significantly down to $18. Yet still, it is the most valuable card from M14. I don’t believe Mutavault is going below $12 due to Modern demand so if you can pick up copies close to $12 after rotation this is a good buy in point.

 

Scavenging Ooze

FORMAT – Modern, Commander

Scavenging Ooze made quite the appearance at GP Kobe. It seemed to fly under the radar due to Burn and Affinity taking down the tournament but Junk did quite well playing four copies of the Ooze main deck. Looks like there will demand from the Ooze for quite a while in Modern, since it is also played in Rock and Pod decks in addition to sometimes appearing in Tribal/Naya Zoo.

Ooze is a decent Commander card however it will derive most of its value from tournament play. $5.50 is the cheapest it has been in quite some time so pick up any copies you find around $5. Interestingly enough, media promo Oozes are also around $5 – I think it is a great time to pick up those foil versions if you want foils of Scavenging Ooze. Regular foils unfortunately will be stabilized for quite a while since there are a ton of media promo Oozes out there.

 

Door of Destinies

FORMAT – Commander, Casual

Door of Destinies was a $15 card before its reprint. This card has huge casual appeal, and once M14 rotates they will start to become hard to find again. It is around $2.50 right now. Expect it to be $4+ within the next year.

 

Tidebinder Mage

FORMAT – Modern

As long as Modern Merfolk is a deck I believe that Tidebinder will be played, at least in sideboards. She provides solid utility for Merfolk and extra distruption against red and green aggro decks. If you can pick up copies around $1 I think that’s pretty good.

 

Strionic Resonator

FORMAT – Commander

I like foils of Strionic Resonator for Commander because there are some wacky things you can do in the format, and Resonator amplifies those silly things. For example, if you stack the trigger right with Sands of Time I believe that you can have infinite untaps during your untap step if you have it and Resonator in play. Pretty neat huh? I’m sure more abilities will be printed in the future for Resonator, so if you can get them for bulk or foils for $1 or less I think that’s a good deal.

UNCOMMON

 

Young Pyromancer

FORMAT – Modern, Legacy, Vintage, Casual

Players have argued that Young Pyromancer is finally the completion of the broken two drop cycle for each color. The tournament results certainly back it up, as it has seen play in Top 8 decks across Modern, Legacy, and Vintage. I feel like it doesn’t complete the cycle because it isn’t a rare but to each their own. It is clearly a powerful card if not a member of the broken two drop cycle.

Nonfoils were included in event decks so $1.50 retail for this guy is going to stick for quite a while. I imagine there will be a reprint eventually in a Commander or supplementary product so focus on foils of Pyromancer. Foils are already around $20, yet based on all the play he is seeing in eternal formats that price could easily go higher.

COMMON

 

Shadowborn Apostle

FORMAT – Casual

People will collect Shadowborn Apostle like nobody’s business, since the card breaks one of the fundamental rules of Magic by allowing you to run as many copies as you want in a deck. If people try to build Commander with this card the estimated demand can only go higher. I don’t think you can ever lose with this common even at $0.50. People will want to collect them for decks so always having a few for those folks won’t hurt. Get them as trade throw ins and this guy’s price in the future might surprise you.

 

 

SLIVERS

FORMAT – Commander, Casual

I created a section just for slivers because many of my points for the slivers will apply at any rarity.

A favorite creature from Magic’s history, slivers made a comeback in M14 by having a face-lift and changing the wording around to “slivers you control” rather than “all slivers” for their abilities. I think all M14 slivers have potential due to collectors, especially the foil ones.

Galerider Sliver has recently seen a price spike in August, probably due to FNM players trying to make slivers work in Standard with Mana Confluence. I’m not sure if it will drop much after rotation since the deck is mainly driven by casuals and the new price could stick. Wait two to three months, and buy in then once the price dips if it decides to. Foils are also good at $10 for Commander.

Other good foils to target are Manaweft, Syphon, Thorncaster, and Bonescythe. Megantic, Predatory, Striking, and Blur Sliver also seem good to me but I don’t think they will see the gains that the first four will see.

Try to pick up common and uncommon slivers as trade throw ins like Predatory and Striking Sliver. They will hold value from casual Sliver appeal going forward.

Summary

Based on feedback from the first part of this set review, I will provide a Top 5 list from each set of top picks that I think will be the best performing cards once they hit their bottoms after rotation.This is the TL:DR of the article you can refer back to if you want to quickly know which cards I’m thinking will do the best in the future. I think all the cards I’ve mentioned will do well though I have the most faith in the ones listed below.

Dragon’s Maze Top 5

5. Savageborn Hydra

4. Progenitor Mimic

3. FOIL Wear // Tea

2. Ral Zarek

1. Voice of Resurgence

M14 Top 5

5. Archangel of Thune

4. Galerider Sliver

3. FOIL Young Pyromancer

2. Scavenging Ooze (especially Media Promos)

1. Mutavault

There are plenty of great options for cards in Dragon’s Maze and M14. Lots of people regarded Dragon’s Maze as a bad set but I believe in the grand scheme of Magic people will look back on it fondly like Kamigawa block. M14 was an awesome core set and provided many great cards to the Magic card pool, so there will be value in cards from that set moving forward as well. This wraps up my RTR Block and M14 rotation review. As always, let me know your thoughts in the comments.

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