Weekend Update for 6/7/14

By: Jim Marsh

Every week, some cards from Magic the Gathering increase and decease in value based upon a number of factors.

Let’s take a look at some of the cards whose values have changed the most and the factors behind why those changes have occurred.

10 Big Winners of the Week

10. Celestial Colonnade (Worldwake)
From $20.35 to $22.35 (9.8%)

Is everyone ready for Modern season?

UWR Control and Midrange decks have been very prolific in the meta recently. 4 Color Gifts and UWR Twin decks have also adopted play sets of Colonnade main deck.

This card works as mana fixing and a finisher that dodges sweeper cards like Supreme Verdict. Usually a land that enters the battlefield tapped has a minor upside like 1 life or Scry 1. The ability to turn into a Serra Angel is nothing short of incredible.

You can attack with it and leave up mana for a Spell Snare or Path to Exile.

I would trade these away happily.

These are much easier to reprint in Standard or a supplemental product than Fetchlands.

9. Privileged Position (Ravnica)
From $13.80 to $15.38 (11.5%)

Commander and Casual players do not like it when you mess with their stuff.

Once you have built up enough mana for an Eldrazi or Kor Spiritdancer loaded with auras the last thing you want is a removal spell destroying all of your hard work.

This has been a steady gainer for a long time but I would not expect indefinite gains. The name and mechanics are generic enough to fit into any set or product that Wizards feels it can be used in.

I see nothing against getting a few to trade to Commander players but I would not go in much further than that

8. Pact of Negation (Modern Masters)
From $8.90 to $9.95 (11.8%)

You can never go wrong with a free counterspell. It protects combos and vital pieces of your board. Play it once and your opponent will always wonder if you have one in your hand.

The Pacts were printed in Modern Masters but it has been a year and prices are once again returning to starting to climb back up.

I think this is a card poised to make a vital return at a key moment in upcoming PTQ coverage.

Currently it is used in Ad Nauseam, Amulet of Vigor and even a UR Possibility Storm deck. I expect it will see wider adoption within the next few months.

7. Shivan Reef (10th Edition)
From $8.22 to $9.19 (11.8%)

Modern Storm decks do not have the luxury of waiting for lands that enter the battlefield tapped. They need their fixing and they need it now.

Shivan Reef is seeing play alongside Steam Vents, Sulfur Falls and Scalding Tarns. That is good company to be in.

It has been printed several times and Storm is an infamously complex deck to play. I don’t think players will support it in enough numbers to keep this price where it is.

It is approaching the price of Shocklands and that does not seem sustainable.

6. Sylvan Caryatid (Theros)
From $6.36 to $7.64 (20.1%)

This card is well positioned come rotation. It plays defense, fix and accelerates your mana without giving your opponent the potential to set you back a turn with a Shock.

It can help you power out a turn three Reaper of the Wilds, Eidolon of Blossoms or Polukranos, World Eater.

It is already a heavy lifter in Standard and I don’t expect that to go away any time soon.

The only unfortunate thing about it is that it was a rare in a heavily drafted set and it was a promo. I think it will approach $10 but I don’t think it will be able to do much better than that.

5. Sigil of the Empty Throne (Conflux)
From $5.00 to $6.07 (21.4%)

I know people have been brewing both Monowhite and Azorius Prison decks with Sigil as the finisher.

Journey into Nyx got a lot of people discussing Constellation. I don’t know if Nyx-Fleece Ram is good enough to buy time but I am sure someone is testing  it.

Legacy has also been experimenting with a Selesnya Enchantress deck that runs Sigil as a high end finisher.

This card has gotten a lot of attention recently and I would trade into the hype.

4. Courser of Kruphix (Born of the Gods)
From $13.14 to $16.30 (24.0%)

Courser of Kruphix is the hottest thing in Standard. Pretty much any deck with green mana wants to play the full four. You get card advantage just for running it in the same deck as lands.

You can combine it with Domri Rade for even more hilarity.

Eidolon of Blossoms loves the fact that is it an enchantment.

Opposing aggressive decks packed with two power creatures for one mana hate it. Burn decks resent the incidental life gain that adds up over the course of a game.

It is even being used in Modern Jund and 4 Color Gifts decks.

The one big question is if it can break the $20 glass ceiling for rares.

As much as I love this card I don’t see a lot of room for it to grow. If you want to turn it into cash you will not be leaving a lot of money on the table.

You won’t regret holding onto them either. It is very well positioned for rotation as shown by the variety of Theros block decks that pack the full four. I expect it to keep its new price tag for the rest of its time in Standard.

3. Seizan, Perverter of Truth (Champions of Kamigawa)
From $3.31 to $4.08 (26.3%)

Nekusar, the Mindrazer has breathed new life into a lot of group hug cards.

Giving away cards is usually a good way to pacify your opponents but the Mindrazer also makes it a great way to kill them.

Seizan, Perverter of Truth is supposed to give everyone a free Night’s Whisper each turn but with your Commander out it is at least a Harrowing Journey for your opponents if not worse.

His flavor makes him difficult to reprint outside of supplemental Products.

I would happily trade him to anyone fine tuning their Nekusar deck.

If you find your play group looking for a good way to deal with the influx of Nekusar decks I would suggest Omen Machine. It turns their Commander into a Pillarfield Ox and lets everyone else play their spells for free. It is a bulk rare and easy to slide into any Commander deck.

2. Slaughter Pact (Modern Masters)
From $3.19 to $4.08 (27.9%)

Free spells are always handy and free removal is no exception. Any Modern deck that has black mana should at least be asking if they want to run this spell.

Jund, Melira Pod and even Amulet of vigor and a host of other decks use it to keep Twin decks at bay.

Anyone who is experimenting with the format due to the release of the Modern Event Deck will also be looking for this card.

This is exactly the kind of card I would want to have in my binder to trade to Modern players.

1. Garruk Relentless (Innistrad)
From $3.75 to $5.22 (39.2%)

The fact that this is a double sided planeswalker makes it unique and unlikely to ever be reprinted.

Modern has been toying with it in Junk midrange and it even sees play in the sideboard of Legacy Nic-Fit decks.

It has a home in Commander decks that play both black and green so there will always be some demand.

I think that this is a pretty safe investment in the long run with some potential growth in the short run if any of the decks that use it take off.

I would not actively try to seek them out but I would happily trade for them from players that were have stock left over from last year’s rotation.

5 Big Losers of the Week

5. Krenko, Mob Boss (M13)
From $4.85 to $4.46 (-8.0%)

Goblins will always be a popular choice in casual formats of all kinds. They are one of the oldest and most aggressive tribes in every format they populate.

Krenko is not a goblin lord but he does play very well with them. He is four mana so he is sitting on the top of the curve of playable goblins.

He does see play on both Modern and Legacy Goblin decks but normally only as one or two copies.

He has demonstrated slow but consistent growth since he rotated and I expect that to continue.

I think this was just a hiccup.

4. Deus of Calamity (Shadowmoor)
From $2.90 to $2.52 (-13.1%)

Duel Deck: Heroes vs Monsters reprinted this card and that is where things get interesting.

You can now pick up the new version of this card for $0.99.

This has led to several sites underselling the original card. It actually has a negative spread right now.

You can find copies as low as $1.49 and buylist them for $1.51.

This is not going to make you a lot of money but it shows that there is an underlying confidence in this card.

Any time you can buy a card at or below buylist is an amazing opportunity.

Look for these in trade binders.

3. Steel Hellkite (Scars of Mirrodin)
From $1.70 to $1.41 (-17.1%)

Here is another glitch in the Matrix. The current Beta is a slightly negative spread.

People are treating this like a bulk rare when it gets played in Legacy MUD.

It is only played as a single copy but it still sees play.

It is also compatible with any Commander deck and it is a dragon for the casual crowd.

Do not be fooled. I would get in on these.

2. Spirit Mantle (M12)
From $2.56 to $2.00 (-21.9%)

I love this card. It is exactly the kind of uncommon I like to see when I purchase “bulk” from people.

Did you know you can buylist them for $1.50?

Most people see an uncommon and assume it is $0.25.

You can even find copies online for $1.35 as I type this.

If free money does not interest you then maybe Modern Hexproof decks do. Several of them are trying this out in the deck.

I think you could be in a lot worse place than sitting on a small stack of these while the Pro Tour is focused on Modern.

1. Echo Mage (Rise of the Eldrazi)
From $0.93 to $0.68 (-26.9%)

Commander 2013 has really shaken up a lot of prices. It giveth but sometimes it taketh away.

Echo Mage was included in Commander 2013 in the Mind Seize deck. Everyone pillaged it for True-Name Nemesis and Baleful Strix and converted the rest to a Nekusar deck.

Unfortunately Echo Mage does not belong in a Nekusar deck. You need to invest a total of nine mana before you can copy a Winds of Change or Burning Inquiry. Almost all of that is blue which can be quite demanding on a three colored deck.

It is quickly becoming bulk and I do not see any reason for it not to.

Targets of a Conspiracy

By: Cliff Daigle

We have the full spoiler, and it’s a doozy!

Sure, there are some splashy mythics and some high-dollar cards, as well as reports that Conspiracy will be a more limited set than we believe. Wizards is notoriously tight-lipped when it comes to numbers, but it seems likely that we’ll get a big burst at first, followed by a second wave not long after. They know Conspiracy is competing with Journey into Nyx, I don’t believe they want it competing with Magic 2015 in mid-July.

Conspiracy appears to be a small event, this might well be the trial balloon. Is there a market for a product like this? It might be the closest Wizards gets to an official paper Cube product. Just like with Modern Masters, there’s value when things are unique. If you can get a box anywhere near MSRP, grab it and put it away. We’ve seen what sealed product can do over time and while it takes time to appreciate, it’s a very safe investment.

This weekend, there are release events for the set, often as draft-till-you-drop-or-we-run-out sort of things. I always love serial drafting, and in a set that’s designed to tweak the draft experience, this is going to be a lot of fun. And afterwards, the second level of fun with the leftover cards: trading.

So what should you be trading for at events this weekend?

Conspiracy-Watermarked Foils

This covers everything from the Cogwork Spy to the Deal Broker, as well as the Conspiracies themselves. Any of these cards I’m going to be chasing HARD in foil. I strongly believe this is a long-term growth set of cards, because the effect is so unique and it’s going to be quite a while before they get printed again, especially in foil.

Marchesa, the Black Rose deserves special mention here. Multiplayer games are won by those whose resources are resilient, and Marchesa gives a very strong layer of resistance to mass removal. I think she’s going to see a lot of EDH and casual multiplayer play, and I would go after foils of her.

I think that there is a lot of growth potential in the rare Conspiracies, too. Worldknit says “Draft me, and then take the best card in each pack, regardless of color!” Getting a second opening hand with Backup Plan is truly amazing. Many Cubers are going to want most, if not all, of the Conspiracies. Some of the hidden agenda cards are going to be less sought-after, but Cubers are often completionists. Go ahead and have a full set ready for them to get from you.

Also for Cubers are the cards like Cogwork Librarian that alter how drafts proceed. I will be picking these up in foil and non-foil, the regular version will not be going for much right now but there is nowhere to go but up. My example is Shadowborn Apostle. Sure, it’s a common, but when a large supply is needed from a short-run set, dollar commons are not unheard of. I’ll be chasing just about all of these types of cards in either version, from the commons to the rares. I dearly love Deal Broker, and I wish I could play seventeen of them.

First- or Second-Run Foils

 

Exploration and Wood Sage get their first foil treatments, and Exploration especially as part of a Legacy deck will be a sought-after foil. I wouldn’t go too crazy, but keep in mind that Conspiracy is not going to be opened very often, so the supply of foil rares is going to be low. Those who have high-end Legacy decks will be unfazed, so I’d max out around $60-$80 in value.

This set offers the sweet Terese Nielsen art of Swords to Plowshares in foil, and this is a card I’d love to have in a shiny form. You’re allowed to ask for at least $60 in trade and offer even more. The new art on Rout is notable, but I wouldn’t expect many people to upgrade an already-foil to this version. Don’t overdo it. Stifle is a card that needed a reprint for Legacy and here it is, in foil or non. It’s a good pickup as the price falls, and then will regain value in the coming months.

Foil Hydra Omnivore is going to be an interesting price to follow. There will be a small supply of this in foil, and it’s currently a $5-$10 card because we love our multi-headed beasties. I’d trade for the new ones at $5 as a long term prospect. Altar of Dementia is not going to keep its price, but the foil will be something else. It’s never been foil before and it’s a great finisher in token decks. Trade for all the Reflecting Pool you can, in foil or not. It’s just too good.

Happy Drafting!

The Ethics of MTGFinance

By James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

Recently I’ve found myself being pulled into cyclical debates on the ethics of MTGFinance. With the increasing participation and interest in this side of the Magic: The Gathering community, it seems like a good time to get to the bottom of things.

The Price Is Always Right

So the other day I’m at a new nerd conference in Toronto and I notice halfway through day 2 as we’re promoting ShelfLife.net (plug: our next gen social commerce platform for collectors) that attendance is pretty dismal. Figuring the vendors may be in the mood for deals I locate an LGS dealer with a ton of binders in tow and no central pricing system. This is exactly the scenario where you are likely to find the best, and the largest deals, largely because only the biggest most dedicated vendors can possibly keep up with the increasingly rapid prices shifts in our community. Sure enough I locate over $2500usd in singles within 30min of binder browsing. I stack the cards in piles at various price points, the dealer signs off on a $1100cdn sale price after some haggling down from $1400cdn and we conclude our business with a handshake and a smile.

Now pause and ask yourself: did I rip him off? Or more to the point, was the transaction ethical?

MTGFinance In A Nutshell
MTGFinance In A Nutshell

I assert that it most certainly was, and here’s why:

1) No one was lying, causing distractions, fast talking or otherwise obscuring the action

2) We’re responsible adults responsible for our own decisions, and his decision was to publicly offer the products in question at the prices we both agreed to

3) Interest is the first sign of market shifts, and he waved it off, likely because;

4) He clearly saw value in the cash flow

Now let’s examine what could have happened had I chosen the opposite path, a path some people might demand I take to achieve perfect transparency.  I could have, for instance, tallied the cards, and engaged in this conversation:

  •  Me: I think these cards are worth essentially double what you have them priced at, about $2500.
  • Vendor: Thanks! My new price is $2500. So would you like to buy them at that price?
  • Me: No thanks.
  • Vendor: Oh, why not? Don’t you recognize them as being worth this price on average in the market?
  • Me: Yes.
  • Vendor: So then you’re backing out because you can get them somewhere else cheaper?
  • Me: No, I’m backing out because I believe these magic cards are investments, and as such, must operate under the principle of opportunity costs.
  • Vendor: How’s that?
  • Me: Because you’ve reset the price to market average, there are now other options I believe will yield better returns within the same time frame, and my role as a market maker dictates that to achieve an efficient market I must act logically and efficiently and pursue my goals while you pursue yours. When the value of my potential returns matches your value in cash flow, a market action will occur and we will both be equally happy. In this particular case I have clearly spent a lot more time than you tracking and memorizing current price averages. This knowledge has value, and I just conferred that value to you as a gift, creating an imbalance in our market making potential and ensuring we cannot achieve market action. You see, I came to your booth loaded with efficiency, free cash flow and risk taking potential. You were carrying inefficiency, low cash flow and lower risk potential, as expressed by your willingness at any time to convert cards that could potentially accelerate in value for cash that averages a much lower interest rate unless reinvested in greater prospects. This insinuated that any (or all) of the following was true:

a) your time was too valuable to make re-pricing your inventory to match current demand worthwhile

b) your potential reinvestment opportunities exceeded my perceived net present value of the cards in question

Further, our lack of prior exchange of social value through camaraderie, emotional support or familial ties makes my donation of value result in an unequal match. I’ve sacrificed over $1000 in value for no discernable benefit as other market actors were already willing to sell me these cards at the newly requested price, which I’ve only just now made you aware of. As such instead of heading home with $1100 cash, you’re heading home with $600 in booth fees, time wasted and no opportunity to reinvest.  I’m heading home with $1400 less profit potential at a risk level previously determined to be acceptable, and a non-friend I’ve donated goodwill to without any return on my investment.

Final score: No one is winning. The market is broken.

StarCityGames Is Not The Market Price

So having taken a closer look at the dynamics and difficulties of trying to manually price thousands of magic cards, let’s examine where these kind of scenarios have led the LGS/Vendor segment of our hobby ecosystem.

Price Progress?
Price Progress?

Back in the pre-internet days, Inquest and Scrye magazine published monthly with card pricing lists taken from surveys of selected vendors around North America. This system led to many golden opportunities for savvy players who could spot a rising tide for certain cards at the tournament level and translate that into smart actions at their local gaming stores before the new issues came out the following month. It also tended to result in highly specialized local economies, with card pricing varying oddly from community to community based on local play styles, format focuses and house rules.

The advent of the Internet, and in particular the ability to view past transactions on Ebay yanked us all into an entirely new era, with easy access to global price data, a trend that has only accelerated in the last 5 years with big data sites like MTGPrice.com, MTGOGoldfish.com, mtgowikiprice.com and TCGPlayer.com. Better information, made widely available should be good for everyone but coupled with the rise of the smartphone has empowered players to take advantage of low margin (aka inefficient) vendors, as well as lazy players, who can’t keep up with pricing shifts. (Now to be fair, vendors have done this to players since the beginning, using buy list tactics that most would consider normal business.)

At the same time, the tendency for commerce to centralize within niches online, leads to the appearance of major market actors with high efficiency such as StarCityGames.com. SCG brand equity then leads to their price lists being used as a mutually agreeable reference point for market actors seeking to equalize value and achieve market action. Other vendors then go a step further, seeking to achieve efficiency and close more market actions through the simplest course of action: copying SCG pricing.

This has lead us to entirely new era of Magic pricing: The Age of Oligopolistic Tendencies.

As opposed to a monopoly which is typically defined as a single market actor holding unfair stores of value due to legal, procedural, resource access or other major advantages, an oligopoly is typically characterized by a relatively few market actors disguising their inefficiency by agreeing to fixed pricing that ensures certain margins and leads to permanently unequal value exchanges while maintaining a relatively stable model of market sharing for the vendors. These situations are especially exacerbated in the case of goods essential to living such as food, warmth, clothing and shelter. Though no true oligopolistic cabal exists in the MTG world, the tendency of inefficient vendors to leverage platforms like Crystal Commerce to track and average the prices of the largest vendors to set their own pricing, is leading us towards a magic ecology with oligopolistic tendencies. (It’s worth noting here that between TCGPlayer, Ebay and PucaTrade “true” market pricing is still widely available and in play.)

Put simply: If everyone uses the same pricing, originally set by the most efficient vendor, no actor will ever be able to achieve further efficiency or recognize the true value of their potential market actions. This is true because in theory and practice, the scenario for every market actor is unique, and their price should be uniquely customized to that scenario.

Eg) Store X has $2500 (SCG pricing) in singles for sale. They set their price on this pile of cards to $2500. A player enters the premises and offers $2300, and the LGS declines because Crystal Commerce says their price is on target. The problem here is that price comparisons only establish the cash value of a transaction, and utterly fail to establish the other forms of value and opportunity cost. For instance if Store X can achieve higher inventory turnover rates, lower overhead, lower product costs, enjoys different tax scenarios, or any number of other value stores, they may be economically incorrect to turn down the deal.

This is a key concept, so let’s dig deeper. Check out this table of value store calculations on a theoretical booster box of Conspiracy being sold by an LGS with greater efficiencies than SCG, but priced to match on the premise that SCG is using the “correct” price:

LGS X StarCityGames
Product Cost to Vendor $74 $72
Posted Sale Price $99.50 $99.50
Turnover Rate (Days to Retrieve Capital) 180 216
Investment Periods/Annum 2.027 1.689
Corporate Tax Rate 15% 35%
Overhead/Box/Days to Turnover $3.50 $7
Gross Yield%Gross Yield

Yield Net Overhead

%Yield Net Overhead

Yield After Tax

Effective Annual Yield After Tax**r = (1+i)^

$25.50/box34.45%

$22/box

29.72%

25.27%
51.89%

$27.5038.19%

$20.50

28.47%

18.50%
33.20%

So what exactly does that math demonstrate?

Price Efficiency Achieved?
Price Efficiency Achieved?

Well, in essence it demonstrates that an LGS with access to non-revenue value stores can achieve greater return on investment than a major market actor. In reality, some of these stores are quite possible (better tax scenarios) while others (think overhead/box sold) are highly unlikely due to economies of scale and scope. Even still, assuming we accept that an LGS could achieve more efficient capital returns, why does that matter?

It matters because higher yield would allow them to lower box prices on the premise that lowering prices below SCG pricing would increase overall sales, and because we already know the LGS has superior returns on those sales, they can make more money overall by undercutting their larger competitor. Here’s the kind of graph we’re talking about.

Note that the demand curve shifts out when the price drops, resulting in higher overall sales, because, duh, more players will buy more boxes if they’re cheaper.

Here’s some more math on the two possible scenarios (for illustration only, since just how much demand may increase based on lowered pricing depends on many factors beyond the ken of this discussion).  We’ll even assume lowered box costs as volume increases, though the plateaus would be fairly broad in our ecosystem:

Cost/Box Revenue/Box Boxes Sold Total Profit
Scenario A: SCG Price Match $74 $99.50 186 $4743
Scenario B: Set Lower Price $73 $97.50 223 $5463.50

The LGS has dropped their price slightly, increased sales by about 20% and achieved a slight inventory cost reduction as reward for their higher volume (because they contributed to their wholesalers own inventory turnover rate), leading to an overall increase of 15%.

Surprised?  You shouldn’t be, because this is EXACTLY what a properly functioning free market economy is supposed to look like. A healthy economy needs the friction of market actors jostling for position to trend towards the most efficient combination of price and alternate value that maximizes both shareholder return for the companies and utility for the consumers.

Note that this is functionally identical to my trip to the LGS with noticeably lower prices because in encountering that actor I had no way to know whether they were:

a) seeking value through inaction (due to the value of their time)

or

b) deliberately lowering prices to increase inventory sell through and capture more market share.

The real point however, is that it just doesn’t matter why they were priced lower because whether their price positioning was intentional, representative of alternate value stores or representative of their inefficiency, the market needs the match tested to find equilibrium. If the match is efficient, I will return, repeat similar transactions and the vendor will thrive if their choices are in fact efficient, applying competitive pressures to SCG and other larger market actors to lower prices for more and more players. If it is inefficient, I may one day return to find the vendor closed, and I will move on to market matches with the most efficient vendor I can find, and the cycle continues. I mean I miss those Friday night hunts for value at Blockbuster, but I can’t argue that the shift from $30 in late fees/month to $10 unlimited access to content from my couch via Netflix isn’t the purest representation of market evolution in motion.

The Boundaries of Ethical Trading

Resist the Dark Side
Resist the Dark Side

First off, I’m a long standing liberal. In fact, up here in Canada, we have parties further left than the Democrats and I vote them with pride. Ultimately I consider myself a social pragmatist, but I reserve the right to skew the energy I spend on socially conscious commerce in favor of essential rather than non-essential goods. That means I tend to transfer value to causes that are improving the overall standard of living more efficiently than I ever could directly. As MTG is an upper middle class game with no essential utility, I am definitely on the side of economics vs. social good, but only so far as I believe they are in fact one in the same in terms of achieving market efficiency in the Magic commons. By this I mean that good economics will lead to the healthiest overall community, a fact I’m sure Hasbro drills into the WOTC exec at every opportunity.

Remember a few years back when they yanked global tournament support, ditched the old rating system and abandoned nationals? We all yelled a lot, but the game has only gotten better since, presumably because the internal reallocation of resources has made the entire operation more efficient at attracting users and increased the overall utility to our community broadly despite the painful transition.

Further, there is a huge difference between accepting a listed price, and engaging in more nefarious acts. Here’s some scenarios I DON’T support:

  • Duping kids is off limits, simply because they aren’t legal market actors at all and cannot be expected to act rationally.
  • Noobs are off limits, largely because being kind to new players yields social scenarios that largely outweigh any meager profits that could be made off their single copy of Jace. I’m not above dumping 1000 commons on someone in a swap for a $50 rare, but I always make sure they know the score, and they’re rarely concerned since variety > power in the early days of trading.
  • Switching price tags, confusing vendors when busy, lying about condition, delaying payments and failing to honor posted prices (a personal pet peeve) are all forms of theft because they represent non-voluntary transfers of value.

In the end, I’ve written this article to make one simple point: you are no more responsible to “correct” the pricing of a vendor than they are to “correct” their pricing when you need a Snapcaster Mage ten minutes before the start of the GP.

I’m also asserting that such acts of price adjustment, are in facts acts of economic and/or social charity, resulting in the transference of hard earned value from one market actor to another without justification.  And while you may feel good about doing it, you may in fact be injuring the health of the MTG economy as a whole by failing to exert the pressures that lead to maximum market efficiency and the lowest possible price for playing this beautiful game.

Now you may say “hey, wait a minute, I hang out at my LGS every day, I’ve known the owner for years and I need to look him in the eye when we trade. This guy gives me deals, runs a good scene and he’s always got snacks on hand for Commander night.”

My response is that you and the owner are not simple market actors, but something closer to friends (or at least peers), in your scenario, and are by definition engaged in a barter economy where you trade value in terms other than just cash, and in doing so you keep things just as equal as if you had bought him out of a common box worth of Simian Spirit Guides. When you notify him every time his pricing seems low, you are in essence investing the value of your knowledge into your favorite hangout and inevitably expecting that value to yield dividends. You may consider yourself the altruistic sort, but when push comes to shove, if you save him from buyout after buyout and he won’t even put aside a Conspiracy box for you, you are unlikely to continue the exchange.

To wit, nor should you.

 James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994. 

Is Worth It?

By: Travis Allen
@wizardbumpin


Don’t miss this week’s installment of the MTG Fast Finance podcast, an on-topic, no-nonsense tour through the week’s most important changes in the Magic economy. And watch this YouTube channel to keep up to date with Cartel Aristocrats, a fun and informative webcast with several other finance personalities!


My girlfriend just paid her car off in full last month. It’s up towards 80,000 miles and she’s wondering if she should keep driving it for awhile or buy a new one. We were discussing it the other day and she relayed a story of having told a coworker her dilemma. She really likes the Prius and has been considering that car specifically. “He said that I would save the most money by continuing to drive my current car for awhile, but I really like the new Prius. I could keep driving my old boring car, or take on a monthly payment again for a car I really want. I guess it would be kind of a luxury, right? Do you think it’s worth it?”


It’s in between rounds at FNM and you’ve got your binder set out in front of you; a hook with which to fish. A young girl, maybe nine years old stops by. She folds her knees underneath her on the chair as she flips page over page. Her mom is sitting at a table on the edge of a room engaged in a Kindle. The little girl stops at a page of red cards, spotting Utvara Hellkite. Her eyes grow wide. She’s giddy. She’s heard about this dragon but has never actually seen the card in real life. “OH MY GOD you have that cool dragon that makes more dragons! That is soooo coool. Will you please trade it to me?” She thrusts an unsleeved pile of cards at you. Amongst the tattered edges of a motley assortment of boosters you spot a fresh Temple of Enlightenment, setting it down on the edge of your binder. “I just opened that earlier. I don’t like blue or white. Those colors are boring. I like dragons.” She’s visibly excited. “Do you think maybe I could give you the land and some other cards for the Hellkite?”

You’ve been that little girl before. Memories of an age of Magic long lost to you shimmer like a heat wave somewhere in the back of your mind. You have a flashback of peers in third grade in awe of Sengir Vampire. It was terrifying. Only one boy in school had it and he never lost a game where he cast it. Everyone coveted it. The thirst to own Sengir yourself is nearly palpable once again. You envy the girl, in a way. She covets this card with a passion you haven’t experienced in years.

The girl’s mother has wandered over. You introduce yourself and tell her that the young woman across from you would like to trade her card for your card, but that her daughter’s card is worth several dollars more than yours is. The mother looks at her daughter, youthful unbridled excitement plainly visible across her face. “I don’t know Sarah. He says your card is more valuable.” “I don’t care. The dragon is so cool. Greg is going to be amazed I have it. Please let me trade it? It’s so worth it!”

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What is the value of a scooped game? How much is a round one concession worth at FNM? How much is that same act of concession worth to you in the last round of the final GP of the season where you just need a few more planeswalker points to lock up your second bye for the entire next year? How about a concession in the finals of a PTQ?

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At a Legacy tournament a few years ago, Alex Bertoncini had registered Manriki-Gusari in his sideboard as tech against other Stoneforge decks. This was during the days of three-round byes at SCG events, so Alex used the time to put together his deck. It was common for players to register decklists they didn’t have all the cards for yet. (This still happens today.) He discovered that not a single vendor on site had a copy of the card available. He began asking players on the floor if they had a copy. He eventually managed to find someone that had the card in his binder. “Great,” Alex said. “It’s in my sideboard for the Legacy open and I’ll get a game loss  and lose a sideboard slot without it. What do you want for it?” The player smiled. The card cost maybe $1 on TCG at the time. “Twenty-five dollars.” Alex paid. Was it worth it?

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I’m known at my local store as a finance guy, and subsequently get asked how much cards cost frequently. “Travis, how much is Courser worth?” I’m never quite sure how to answer this question. Worth is a funny concept. We’re so used to bandying the term around, but what does it really mean? When I’m asked “how much is Tarmogoyf worth now” what am I supposed to draw upon to answer that? Take a look at the price of Tarmogoyf on Starcity and TCGPlayer.

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The exact same card, exact same condition, is $200 at SCG and $185 on TCG. The question remains: it worth $200 or $185? Sitting in front of your computer right now, knowing that the card is available for those two prices, what is the right answer? One could argue that SCG’s higher price reflects their customer service, reliability, and all the other intangibles. But does that affect the actual value of the card? If you’re talking about trading for a Tarmogoyf at a local Modern event should SCG’s additional services dictate that you throw another Courser of Kruphix into the pile?

Why does a Modern Masters Tarmogoyf cost over $165 while a Swordwise Centaur is left behind on card tables worldwide without a single thought given to keeping it? They’re the same quality of cardboard. If you manage to wring all the ink out of the cards you’ll find that neither uses appreciably more. The actual physical presence of the cards, disconnected from whatever demand Magic players place on them, is essentially identical. Without people to place different amounts of external demand on the cards they are worth the same. To say a Tarmogoyf is worth $200 while a Swordwise Centaur is worth $.02 means that there is much more to worth than the physical components. This seems obvious enough, but it has implications that we don’t always appreciate.

Take the young girl from the example above. She wants that Hellkite something fierce. The card represents something that many of us find incredibly difficult to experience after so much time invested in the game. Money means little to her. Cards are valued based on how easily they kill the opponent and how many kids in her grade own a copy. Utvara Hellkite is a card spoken of as a legend amongst her peers. She would immediately have the best deck of all her friends were she to acquire the dragon. The Temple of Enlightenment is essentially valueless. She will never use it. It will collect dust, the edges exposed to wear as it is jostled around in shoeboxes and backpacks. Eventually it will be thrown out when she moves on from the game and her father is cleaning out the attic. To her the dragon is easily worth more than the land. The dragon represents all that is exciting about Magic. But the Temple? What does she care? In her eyes the answer is crystal clear: The dragon is worth far more than the land.

The reason why an object’s worth is so difficult to pinpoint is that it is entirely contextual. If you’re just doing some light trading at an FNM, a Scalding Tarn is probably ‘worth’ the $80 MTGPrice says it is. When it’s early Saturday morning fifteen minutes before the PTQ starts and you still need one for your deck, I bet it’s ‘worth’ more than just the $80 to you. You’d trade $85, $90, maybe even $100 or more for it if it’s necessary for your deck. I remember paying $2 apiece on Might of Old Krosa’s at GP Chicago last year when they were $.40 on TCG because even though I was paying five times what I would online, in that moment they were easily worth the markup because without them I couldn’t play Magic.

Value is found in all of this by identifying what worth means to others. Aside from the most veteran traders, most of us have cards in mind that are worth more than their sticker price indicates. It’s a card we really need to finish foiling an EDH deck or it’s the last dual to finish a playset for an in-the-works Legacy deck. Whatever it is, when we find it we’re often willing to give up more than retail because having the card in our possession is worth more than the markup we pay to acquire it.

Worth is more than the dollar value assigned to a card by any given retailer. Worth includes the time, the day, the location, the temporal necessity, the experience, the story. Understanding in what ways worth is transient and nuanced will help you make better trades and purchases.

Humility is $17.11 on MTGPrice right now. Courser of Kruphix is $16.30. Which card is worth more? Which would you rather have in your binder on Friday at 5:45pm?

MAGIC: THE GATHERING FINANCE ARTICLES AND COMMUNITY