M15 Review: A Year Late

By: Travis Allen

M15 is the love letter to players M14 should have been. There are a lot of new powerful cards including four new Planeswalkers, a few old favorites revisited, the fourth entry in the decade run of You Make the Card, and an entire run of guest designed cards. I haven’t seen people this jazzed about a core set since M10.

I wrote an introduction to set reviews just last week so I’m going to copy it here:

It’s important to remember when reading any set review that we are forced to evaluate cards in a pseudo-vacuum, but they never exist as such. When I look at Brimaz I have to consider the card individually, free of whatever the metagame looks like that particular month. Brimaz’s text box isn’t going to change but the cards other people are playing are. I need to focus on what concrete information I have available to me. Because of this set reviews are especially challenging. I have to look at Brimaz and make an evaluation based strictly on the words printed on the card, but his true worth will be dependent on the cards around him, a pool that will change significantly over time. Cards that are excellent right now may have been trash in an alternate timeline. It would be easy to construct a Standard environment where Desecration Demon is crap (such as INN-RTR,) or where Prime Speaker Zegana is a chase mythic. Even the hallowed Jace was bad at release since there wasn’t a single other playable blue card in the format and Bloodbraid Elf + Blightning threatened to shut him down as soon as he resolved.

The point I’m making is that when considering this review, and all other reviews, it’s important to be good Bayesians and recognize that a powerful card should be good and a weaker, situational card should be bad, but the constraints of the format around them, complete unknowns to the hapless reviewer, will be the true determining factor in identifying whether a card is a bulk mythic or a $20 rare.

I’ve structured my review to identify which cards are bulk, and of those that aren’t, what I think their prices may be around this fall’s rotation, and sometime about six months from now in January, ahead of the second Khans set. Anything in the bulk section means it’s cheap now ($2 or under) and will still be cheap at basically all points.

White

Bulk
Avacyn, Guardian Angel
Mass Calcify
Resolue Archangel
Spectra Ward

 

Ajani Steadfast
Ravnica Rotation: $10-$12
Six Months: $8

I’ll outline a few rules of thumb for evaluating Planeswalkers, since we’re going to be doing it a bunch this set. It’s important that a Planeswalker be capable of protecting itself. If you play it into a board where you have no threats and they have one guy or two small guys, can the Planeswalker keep itself alive? What’s the mana cost look like? Four and under and a walker can reasonably be considered competitive. Over four and the bar is much higher. Elspeth is an example of an exception to the rule. Finally, how flexible is the walker? Koth required your deck to have a critical mass of actual Mountains to be worth running. Nissa Revane wanted you to play a pile of elves. Jace, The Mind Sculptor…wanted you to be capable of paying for his mana cost. That’s it.

Ajani isn’t the hottest at protecting himself. There’s no body generated, which means that if you don’t already have someone to run interference he can’t make one. What’s worse is that his +1 is a total blank without anything in play, so you can’t even run him out into certain death to try and grind some advantage, as you can with Jace, Architect of Thought. On the other hand, his mana cost is quite friendly. There have only ever been two other XC Planeswalkers; Chandra Firebrand and Garruk Relentless. Firebrand was a flop but Relentless was important his entire time in Standard. A four mana walker with only a single colored symbol is quite flexible in its applications, which will help him find plenty of homes. Given how his abilities work, that is clearly critical for his success.

Ajani can’t do much at all on his own which is going to keep him from the big leauges. JAoT drew cards. Domri (sometimes) drew cards. Elspeth creates an army. All of them could gain advantage on an empty board, which Ajani can’t. What he does do for you is provide awesome support for your team. One solid creature on the board makes his +1 pretty legitimate. You get a “free” attack because of the vigilance as well as a nice buffer of life. His -2 is worth at least five mana if we’re looking at Gavony Township as the bar, and his adds counters to other Planeswalkers as well, which is certainly worth something.

Since Ajani requires support in play you can’t run him as a four-of. Being almost entirely relegated to a pair or perhaps set in most lists will prevent him from climbing much. I anticipate he’ll see some mild success in aggro or midrange GW builds, and if a Bant walkers style list pops up he’ll likely have a slot. He should keep dropping towards $10 as we come up on Khans, and by next January he’ll probably be pretty close to his floor in the $7-$10 range.

 

Hushwing Gryff
Ravnica Rotation: $2-$3
Six Months: $1-$3

Most recognize that Gryff’s impact will be felt mostly on Modern, which is the format that will primarily be responsible for driving the value. A flash Torpor Orb that attacks is pretty cool, although dying to half an Electrolyze is sort of a bummer. Thalia isn’t more than $6 and she’s better in more places, so I don’t think Gryff can climb above that for awhile. I also don’t believe there will be enough demand for his ability in Standard for his presence there to matter much, although if Khans is an ETB-heavy set it could do a bit better. Overall I’d mostly expect him to fare a tad better than Spirit of the Labyrinth.

 

Preeminent Captain
Ravnica Rotation: $1-$2
Six Months: Bulk-$2

Preeminent Captain was over $5 before the reprint, so clearly there’s some demand for this effect. He was printed in Morningtide though, which is one of the sets most poised for inflated prices in modern Magic. This second printing should satiate most all the casual demand and unless we get some sicknasty soldiers in Khans, he’ll probably function as reasonably popular card in some white aggro build. Unfortunately for him there’s only ever going to be one deck that wants him, which means his price is pretty capped.

 

Return to the Ranks
Ravnica Rotation: $1-$2
Six Months: Bulk – $6

This isn’t going anywhere before rotation, so let the price get nice and low before you buy any copies you want. The format is likely far too hostile for this to matter yet.

It’s after rotation that this gets interesting. Clearly the card is powerful; most who write set reviews with an eye towards playability have taken the time to discuss it. What really seems to set up this card is that there is a lot of graveyard interaction showing up in M15, possibly hinting at a graveyard theme or subtheme in Khans. If that’s the case then the resources this really needs to take off could be coming. If they do this may end up as a tier one or tier two deck ala The Aristocrats. If we don’t get enough enablers, it will relish in barley-bulk levels as FNMers try week in and week out to make fetch happen. A card like this is really difficult to provide a price for since it so wildly depends on what the format looks like. Instead I’m telling you what we need to see for it to matter. Watch for my Khans review to see if it looks like the seeds are planted.

 

Soul of Theros
Ravnica Rotation: $6-$8
Six Months: $4-$7

Hey remember about twenty seconds ago when I said we were seeing an oddly large amount of graveyard interaction in a core set? Well look at that! An entire mythic cycle of clearly Standard playable creatures with graveyard interaction.

SoT is one of the better souls. If you can afford him you can afford his activated ability, which a single attack with can completely turn the game around. Even if he’s your only creature you’re still threatening a sixteen point life swing while still holding up a 6/6 to block. His graveyard ability is also excellent in midrangey decks, letting you threaten a massive combat trick at all times after turn six. As a 6/6 with vigilance and two solid abilities, I like SoT’s chances a lot. The only thing really holding him back is that he shares a casting cost with Elspeth.

Soul of Theros should tick down between now and rotation as it’s unlikely he will explode out of the gates, but he won’t drop too far because people will be eager to see what happens after September. This time next January it’s more probable that he continues to slip towards $5 with mild to moderate use, but anything is possible. I don’t expect him to be $12-$20, but I recognize it as a possibility if he becomes one of the marquee cards of the set.

 

Spirit Bonds
Ravnica Rotation: Bulk – $2
Six Months: $1-$4

This card has flown under the radar a bit, but it’s definitely capable of being a big player in Standard. Getting an extra 1/1 flyer out of every creature you play is quite valuable for attritiony decks, and having a way to turn those tokens into indestructibility is just icing on the cake. Like most M15 cards I don’t expect this will have an impact by the time rotation comes around, but there’s certainly a real chance this could become a $2-$3 rare at least as things shake out. Score these as throw-ins where you can.

 

Blue

Bulk
Chasm Skulker
Jalira, Master Polymorphist
Master of Predicaments
Mercurial Pretender
Polymorphist’s Jest
Stormtide Leviathan

 

Aetherspouts
Ravnica Rotation Bulk – $2
Six Months: $1-$5

Evacuation is $2 with six printings. Cyclonic Rift is $3+ with a positive outlook. Aetherspouts is in the same family. You won’t get to flip all their artifacts and enchantments as you do with Cyclonic Rift. Instead you either get a pseudo-wrath by forcing them to pile creatures on the bottom of their library, or you set their draw step back several turns with perfect knowledge of what’s coming. It’s possible to play around but if they’re doing that they’re not attacking, so you’re getting virtual advantage from that alone. I see this getting played as a pseudo-wrath in blue decks that don’t have access to whatever sweeper we end up with. It will probably hang around in the $1-$2 range, but if the pieces come together just right it could reach $5. I know Adrian Sullivan’s RUG list I was playing this year would have really enjoyed having access to this. Another favorite card of mine, Prophet of Kruphix, can really provide a platform for this to shine.

 

Chief Engineer
Ravnica Rotation: Bulk – $2
Six Months: Bulk

This guy is undoubtedly cool, and there’s precedent for this effect being expensive in the form of Mycosynth Golem. The problem is that there are going to be so many more copies than Golem and it’s unlikely we’ll have enough real support for him in Standard to matter. Even Grand Architect couldn’t break the few dollar barrier and that was in Scars of Mirrodin when my trade binder had eleven or twelve pages of artifacts. Engineer may indeed sneak into something in Modern since the support is so much more robust there, but if that does in fact happen the in-print rare is not going to be the expensive card in that deck.

 

Jace, the Living Guildpact
Ravnica Rotation: $8-$10
Six Months: $4-6

Jace isn’t nearly as bad as many others think he is. He’s immediately capable of flipping their biggest threat back to their hand, so he passes the first Planeswalker test, even if it is a bit pricey to do so. We certainly can’t be upset about his mana cost. He doesn’t require anything specific out of your deck construction, which is great. The starting loyalty is excellent, which is a sort of protection as it is. His ultimate is pretty dang strong. The only real issue is that his +1 appears to be on the weaker side of things. It’s better than scry one, but probably a bit worse than scry two, since if you flip two lands you can’t ship them both to the bottom. Not getting a full mana’s worth of value out of his +1 is pretty tough. Of course, you’re almost definitely getting the requisite amount of value out of that +1 if you have cards in your deck you want in your graveyard. Like, hmm, maybe Souls or whatever else Khans brings us.

Jace is not going anywhere in the near future. We won’t know how potentially relevant he is until we start getting Khans spoilers. Assume that there won’t be any heavy graveyard payoff and trade him away accordingly, but check back in to my review at Khans to reassess. Nearly every Jace has been under-received relative to their actual playtime thus far, and I wouldn’t be surprised if that is happening again.

 

Soul of Ravnica
Ravnica Rotation: $1-$3
Six Months: $2-$4

Chapin is a fan, although he thought the activated abilities were 3UU, not 5UU. At five mana the abilities are insane. At seven mana they’re merely fair. SoR is not going to take over a game immediately in the way that SoT may but it’s ability to draw you cards on command for as long as it sits in play will definitely dominate the long game. Even if they Thoughtseize or Doom Blade it you’re still going to have the option to just get paid on any end of turn you wish. A 6/6 flyer for six that draws you one to three cards as needed is a serious threat. It’s not as splashy as SoT or Soul of Phyrexia but it’s definitely got the power to hang. It’s on SCG right now for a mere $3 which seems low as it’s probably in the better half of Souls, but this is because it’s one of the DOTP promos. There will be enough extra copies in the market to keep the price fairly suppressed unless it becomes a major component of the Standard landscape.

 

Black

Bulk
In Garruk’s Wake
Indulgent Tormentor
Necromancer’s Stockpile
Stain the Mind

 

Liliana Vess
Ravnica Rotation:$5-$6
Six Months: $4-$5

M15 will make the sixth time this particular iteration of Liliana has been printed. In spite of this she has carried a $10+ price tag until now. Clearly the casual demand is there. Like most reprinted walkers, her price will decline in the short term but by this time next year, and perhaps even sooner, she’ll start rebounding a bit. Liliana will be a solid grab when she bottoms out.

 

Ob Nixilis, Unshackled
Ravnica Rotation: Bulk – $2
Six Months:$1-$3

I was conflicted about where to list Ob Nixilis. At first I was going to list him as bulk, but the appeal to the EDH crowd was enough for me to include him. He won’t matter in Standard unless we get fetches in Khans (which I put at < 5%,) but he will have fringe playability in Modern and reasonable demand in 99 card formats. I admittedly don’t see him showing up too much in Modern, but it’s possible there will occasionally be decks that want access to the effect. In EDH he’s pretty nifty as he can really stymie opponent’s board development, and anything that sweeps a bunch of smaller guys away will turn him into a legitimate threat pretty quickly. I like foils of Ob Nixilis down the road.

 

Soul of Innistrad
Ravnica Rotation: $2-$4
Six Months: $2-$3

Even though he’s in the right colors for Standard success, SoI’s ability isn’t especially splashy. It’s most surely grindy and attritiony, but it doesn’t read as exciting as SoT or SoS. He loops back around to that potential graveyard theme we were discussing earlier. If it shows up, he could be a serious component of the metagame as an enabler of all sorts of shenanigans. If not, he’ll most just be a 6/6 that grinds out value over the long game. In the latter situation he won’t see enough play to drive his price much. Meanwhile there will be reasonable EDH demand for this guy in a way that we won’t see on most of the others in the cycle. It’s hard to imagine a black deck that wouldn’t be happy with this ability. Like Ob Nixilis, foils will be juicy targets.

 

Waste Not
Ravnica Rotation: $4-$6
Six Months: $1-$4

Waste Not occupies a space few other cards do; it is drenched in casual appeal, yet also possibly pushed hard enough to be playable in Standard. As an added twist of flavor it’s the You Make The Card card. That alone won’t save the card, but it certainly won’t hurt it either.

Liliana’s Caress is a $3 uncommon so there is precedent for this type of card being worth a reasonable amount. This will slowly drop while it’s in Standard and copies make their way into unsleeved kitchen table decks everywhere, but sometime between December and July it will start to pull back up again. This is all assuming that it isn’t good enough to make it in Standard. Thoughtseize is certainly a reasonable enabler and if we get another incidental discard effect that’s playable on its own this could make it into FNMs. If that happens the floor on this will only be $2-$4 before it starts to climb again. I just wish Whispering Madness wasn’t rotating.

 

Red

Bulk
Aggressive Mining
Burning Anger
Crucible of Fire
Goblin Kaboomist
Hoarding Dragon
Kurkesh, Onakke Ancient
Siege Dragon

 

Chandra, Pyromaster
Ravnica Rotation: $5-$7
Six Months: $4-$10

Like Liliana, Chandra will take a dip in the meantime but will climb again once we get past M15. Unlike Liliana, Chandra is a good bit more powerful and therefore much more likely to show up in Standard. In six months time she may not have caught on again, and if that happens, she’ll be near her floor. If she does end up doing work before then, perhaps alongside Prophetic Flamespeaker, a rebound into double digits is plausible.

 

Goblin Rabblemaster
Ravnica Rotation: $1-$3
Six Months: $2-$4

We know this card is playable because it’s the Buy-A-Box promo. He’s also a goblin, which continues to carry casual demand, as Krenko has illustrated. These prices I’m giving you are basically his floor at those given times assuming he sees zero to mild Standard play. If goblins is A Thing in Standard, he could easily reach $6-$10.

 

Soul of Shandalar
Ravnica Rotation: $3-$5
Six Months: $5-$10

Soul of Shandalar may end up being the best of the bunch. First strike means SoS is going to win nearly every battle she (?) gets into. The activated ability continues to pressure people’s life totals while eating small blockers. It can even be used to put some damage on a high-toughness creature ahead of first strike damage to take down large targets in combat, effectively making her a nine power first-striker when you have five mana up. She’s a nightmare to block and is capable of dealing damage straight to the face even if you can’t get through for some reason. She really does it all – she attacks well, she can pressure a life total through a clogged board state, and she can remove smaller targets.

I think that SoS may be the best in the Soul cycle. It likely won’t get there before September, but SoS will be poised to do great work in Standard once things shake up a bit. If her play is on the lighter end of things she’ll probably be $5 or so. If she ends up being a top ten card in the format then $10-$15+ is possible. Watch the Pro Tour closely to see how she performs; this could end up being one of the most lucrative cards of the set in the mid-term.

 

Green

Bulk
Hornet Nest
Hornet Queen
Kalonian Twingrove
Life’s Legacy
Phytotian
Yisan, the Wanderer Bard

 

Chord of Calling
Ravnica Rotation: $6-$8
Six Months $4-$6

If you didn’t see this coming you weren’t paying attention. As soon as they announced convoke as the returning mechanic it should have been clear as day that we were getting Chord. Wizards has shown time and time again that they can and will reprint Modern cards that need it.

For a little while Chord held the lauded role of the most expensive card in Modern that didn’t deserve it. It’s since dropped to a more “reasonable” level of $30, but that price was sustained because of the very limited supply of a Ravnica rare in conjunction with Pod regularly being the best deck in the format. Now that Chord is a core set rare, that price is going to get absolutely crushed. The supply here will be more than enough to satiate the Modern demand for the card, which means the price will fall accordingly. Original Ravnica foils will still command a premium, but that’s the only thing that will withstand the glut of new copies.

 

Genesis Hydra
Ravnica Rotation: $1-$2
Six Months: Bulk – $5

I can’t quite figure out what I think about Genesis Hydra. You basically never want to cast this for anything less than X=3, so he’s really a five or six drop at best. Paying five mana for a 3/3 and hopefully a little something else for your trouble is reasonable, and it gets much better quickly. Putting seven mana in is almost always going to be worth it. At X=5 you can get a 5/5 and “settle” for a Polukranos all for seven mana, which is a real sweet deal. Seven may sound like a lot but most green decks, especially ones with Nykthos, can get there without much effort.

The prevalence of Caryatid and Courser certainly bodes well for Genesis Hydra, and the type of deck Hydra is good in would probably want him as a three- or four-of. Will that deck and his performance in it be good enough to push him into the spotlight though? It probably depends heavily on what good two, three, and four drops we get. Reclamation Sage is a pretty great place to start, as is Banishing Light. If we get another solid ETB four drop and maybe a two drop he could climb up to at least a few bucks. If the support doesn’t quite emerge he’ll end up in the bulk bin.

 

Nissa, Worldwaker
Ravnica Rotation: $17-$23
Six Months: $15-$30

I’ll let others gush about Nissa. Suffice to say that she’s dang powerful, and is in exactly the color that can get her into play soon enough to be extremely threatening. With cards like Genesis Hydra and Nykthos to pair with her land untapping, the seeds are sown for a big mana list. The only thing preventing her from flat out being the unquestionably best walker in Standard is that it says “forest” instead of “land.” She’ll still be powerful, but any deck that runs her is going to need a critical mass of forests, which will restrict her utility.

If she sees enough play out of the gate her price will not drop at all. I’m not expecting her to make big waves immediately though, as Lifebane Zombie is still going to put too much pressure on anything too reliant on green creatures. She should slip until rotation, but probably not by too much. Not only will Standard brewers want to get their hands on copies, but casual demand will really help shore up price loss. It’s tough to say where she’ll be by January. If she sees very minor play in standard she’ll be in the $12-$15 range just on FNM and casual demand. If she’s played to moderate success, as Kiora is/has been, expect her to be closer to $20. If the Khans land cycle amazingly has land types or if we’re on the verge of the green renaissance, she could easily be $30. All we can really do is wait and see.

 

Soul of Zendikar
Ravnica Rotation: $1-$3
Six Months: Bulk-$2

If there is a green renaissance, it probably isn’t going to involve this guy. Reach is useful but isn’t nearly as strong as flying or trample. Making 3/3’s is fine but activating it once doesn’t have the power to take over a game like some of the other abilities. It’s also likely the worst one from the graveyard. Add in that he’s a promo for DotP and we’ve got a bulk mythic.

 

Gold

Garruk, Apex Predator
Ravnica Rotation: $18-$25
Six Months: $5-$12

Is Garruk cool? No doubt. He’s big, his first +1 is splashy, and he’s got four abilities. Unfortunately cool doesn’t equate with value. It’s possible he could come down and take out an Elspeth and run away with the game, but what is far more likely is that he makes a 3/3 deathtouch then eats a Hero’s Downfall or Banishing Light or Detention Sphere or Dreadbore or [Khans PW removal spell]. This is all assuming you’re still alive when you get to seven and he hasn’t been Thoughtseized.

When Nicol Bolas came down he either destroyed the best permanent in play or gained control of it. There were also no spells in the format that said “destroy target Planeswalker.” The times have changed, and Garruk is just not going to do enough when he resolves for how easy it can be to top deck an answer. Even if they don’t have the removal in hand, Garruk could easily tick up three times, die to a found answer, and not have done enough on the board to win the game. I certainly like Garruk, and he’ll be fun at FNM, but I doubt he’ll be able to hang.

The price is high right now because he’s the marquee Planeswalker. As demand from the casual market is sated and tournament results continue to lack his presence, his price will slip further and further. He will rebound eventually and start climbing, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get as low as $5-$8 before he does.

 

Sliver Hivelord
Ravnica Rotation: $8-$12
Six Months: $4-$8

Maybe Slivers are competitive for the last two months of this Standard, but I doubt it. What’s more likely is that a few people try it at FNM and it can’t withstand the assault of Mono-Black and Mono-Blue. Hivelord will fade from relevance after rotation, and the price will keep dropping until it begins to rebound sometime next year. This will be a great card to drop at the floor though.

 

Artifact/Land

Bulk
Avarice Amulet
Grindclock
Haunted Plate Mail
Obelisk of Urd
Phyrexian Revoker
Shield of the Avatar

 

Perilous Vault
Ravnica Rotation: $4-$7
Six Months: $5-$10

Oblivion Stone climbed towards $15 during its height before being reprinted. Nevinyrral’s Disk was a major factor in multiple formats over the years and remains several bucks. Perilous Vault is a powerful artifact in this same vein.

Exiling is a big step up from destroying in nearly all situations. The biggest exception that comes to mind is if you control a Wurmcoil (RG Tron), but the damage from that can be mitigated. Universal sweepers aren’t typically available to all colors, but when they are they’re greatly appreciated. All is Dust is a solid $15+ despite existing as a GP Promo. The effects of Vault will not be felt immediately, but it will probably come out to play multiple times over it’s tenure in Standard. Not only that, it will show up in Modern, Legacy, and EDH. While no format is likely to see it become a pillar, it will be an important tool in each. My expectation is that Vault will behave similar to many mythics that will have a smallish impact in Standard but are needed for other formats. The price will drop for a time, but will rebound and continue to grow, possibly upwards of $20, after enough time has passed.

 

Scuttling Doom Engine
Ravnica Rotation: $1-$3
Six Months: Bulk – $5

Salvaged Mirrodin art aside, is Engine it? Is a card with a name as stupid as Scuttling Doom Engine the sleeper of the set? We’ve got a colorless 6/6 for 6 that can’t be blocked by Carytid, Courser, or Elspeth Tokens that can kill most Planeswalkers (and sometimes players) if it dies. If you connect with Doom Engine just one time and then Doom Blade it you’ve done twelve damage to your opponent. Unless they chain this guy to some rocks or Path to Exile gets reprinted, he’s going to be a headache for most challengers. Factor in cards like Chief Engineer that set up even faster Doom Engines or graveyard recursion and you’ve got a solid plan in any color that wants it. I could easily see this at $10 if it ends up being one of the best rares in the set, which is entirely possible. If it slips into bulk status I’ll probably snag a bunch.

 

Soul of New Phyrexia
Ravnica Rotation: $7-$10
Six Months: $4-$6

Indestructible on demand is useful, but I’m not sure it’s “better than all of the souls in my colors” useful, especially at five mana per activation. The activated abilities of other Souls are basically relevant at all times, but this guy really only can pay you if they’re threatening a huge board state or have non-exile removal. Other than that, he’s “just” a 6/6 trampler. That’s obviously nothing to shake a stick at, but competition is fierce these days. I think I’d rather have Doom Engine most of the time, honestly. I’m willing to be wrong about this though.

SCG has preorders at $15 which just feels real high to me. If this was instead listed at $6 I don’t think I would find it odd. Unless this card is just way better than I think it is it will continue to slip towards the $5 range.

 

The Chain Veil
Ravnica Rotation: $3-$5
Six Months: $2-$4

Chain Veil is a very cool card, hands down. While the wording may be inelegant, it has in fact been confirmed that this can ‘go infinite,’ with say a Ral Zarek, Nissa, and four forests. (It’s not actually infinite infinite because if you use Ral’s ultimate and fail all five flips you can’t keep untap the Veil, but at least you get infinite Planeswalker loyalty.) It will be popular in some EDH decks and in casual circles, but I have real trouble imagining this being good enough in any other format. The price will drop for awhile, but like Perilous Vault, this will be a great pickup at its floor as casual demand will continue to push it towards $10 without a reprint.

 

Sliver Hive
Ravnica Rotation: $2-$3
Six Months: $1-$3

Barring a breakout Standard performance, Sliver Hive should settle in the low dollars range. Casual appeal will keep the card out of bulk status, but it won’t climb north of $5 for quite some time.

 

Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth
Ravnica Rotation: $7-$9
Six Months: $4-$7

The price on this won’t drop too rapidly, but by January the market should be pretty well saturated. I’m not anticipating heavy Standard play on this guy and my price expectations reflect that. A single copy will be a freeroll in anything that plays black, but that’s just one lonely copy. It’s tough to imagine what deck wants four of these. I do really like foils though. The PLC foils are a solid $50. The M15 ones could easily be $30-$40. Right now they may be preordering for around that, but if they drop towards $20 I’d be happy to trade for them.

 

Painlands
Ravnica Rotation: $2-$4
Six Months: $2-$4

The fact that the price of all of these lands started rising after they were announced in M15 is a testament to how little many people understand about card value. Once the initial wave of M15 hits the prices should settle nicely in the few dollar range, with Shivan Reef perhaps being a tad more than the others thanks to more Modern demand. The M10 Checklands showed us that despite an enormous quantity in the market the price on quiet staple lands can still hang around a few dollars. I expect no different here.

Ancestral Recall: The Wild West

Jared is on vacation this week, so please enjoy this article of his originally from 12/23/13.

By: Jared Yost

Sometimes it feels like we are in the wild west of Magic: the Gathering when it comes to sudden price spikes and card buyouts that seem to affect the market on a weekly basis. It feels like every week I am hearing that this card or that card was bought out and the price has gone up 200%-400%. Just like a shootout, it seems as if the first person to draw their gun (or in this case, their wallet) and fire (click “add to cart”) is the winner. And it only seems to get worse as time goes on. 

Disrupting Shoal

Let’s ponder for a quick minute – who the heck is actually pulling the trigger on these calls like Disrupting Shoal and Phyrexian Obliterator (which even seemed to spike twice?) Is it individuals that have amassed enough ammunition (money) and have good enough aim (experience) to hit every single target faster than the rest of us? Are they the Billie the Kids and Jesse James of the Magic market? Is there a domino effect of casual speculators with more money than sense?

The answer is probably yes to both. As the popularity of Magic increases, it looks like the sky’s the limit for the prices on some of these cards when someone discovers that they are undercosted and acts quickly to drain the market. If you are one of these individuals, my hat is off to you. Congratulations. You have done your homework, discovered an undervalued asset, and have capitalized on that asset. I’m not sure if there is any advice I can give you except to avoid the trap of getting in on a card too late, which you’ve probably avoided in 95% of the cases (there is always the potential for the double spike, though it doesn’t happen often – Jace, the Mind Sculptor did it in Standard). Just remember to strike while the iron is hot: those Disrupting Shoals aren’t going to sell themselves.

But It’s not even Modern cards that are experiencing these price hikes. What about cards like Wheel and Deal and Forced FruitionNekusar hasn’t been out for long and isn’t even the flagship commander of the Mind Seize deck, so why did these random cards that only fit into a narrow strategy in a specific causal format go up in value? I might have an idea.

Those holding the bag of cards that spike and then quickly plummet are similar to the penny stock investor, who decided “investing” in penny stock assets would result in a great return. However, the asset in this case is not a random number on a roulette wheel or any single name in a list of penny stocks – the asset is actually something that all of us are emotionally invested in. The first reason that these spikes happen is because players and speculators are both emotionally invested in the game of Magic. Aluren

Everyone that plays Magic is emotionally invested in the game to some degree. Otherwise, why play the game? There are literally thousands of other games that could be played instead, so what makes it so special? The answer is that playing the game is fun, the wonderful community is welcoming and friendly, the feeling of opening packs and sorting a collection can’t be beat, the feeling of chasing a collection and acquiring all of the particular cards you desire is amazing, the great feeling of putting a deck together and calling it your own is the best, and the support by the company that produces the game is fantastic. Without all of these factors, Magic would falter and slowly go away. It is stronger than ever now because all Magic players are able to get emotionally invested through all of these other aspects besides playing the game. There are hundreds of websites dedicated to Magic out there, whether they sell art related to the game (card alters), offer game accessories (dice, tokens, deckboxes, playmats, etc.), or are just reflecting on the community (Cardboard Crack). All of these factors help to cement good feelings in players’ minds about how sweet Magic is.

Right, so what does emotional investment have to do with price spikes? Well, when you get pretty emotional about something, it’s much harder for logic to factor into the equation. Do you want to buy those Disrupting Shoals at $10 because you think they’re cool and there is no way they could go down due to their awesomeness? If this is your train of thought, speculating might not be for you. Speculating requires a certain amount of cold logic and forethought that a lot players don’t want to apply to their favorite past time, which is supposed to be about fun.

Capture

Besides emotional investing, I believe another reason that these price spikes are happening is due to the rarity of the older cards compared to the newer ones (Wheel of Fortune anyone?). Back when Magic first came out, they had no idea how popular the game would be. They created the reserve list out of a fear of killing the game via reprints, and it seemed to work for a time. Because these cards can’t be reprinted, when a new card is released that synergizes or combos well with an old Reserve List card, that card can wind up spiking in value very fast. Even a rules change or unbanning could do this – Gaea’s Cradle and Time Spiral are examples of these cases respectively. With the Modern format Wizards can better control prices of newer cards, but older cards that are in Legacy and EDH are anyone’s guess. 

Nekusar, the Mindrazer

In addition to Reserved List cards that are never getting reprinted, cards that could also receive a reprint but have not gotten one yet are also targets for spikes. Specifically, cards in sets that are post-reserved but pre-Modern, like Masque’s (Rishadan Port), Invasion, Odyssey, and Onslaught – these blocks were printed in a time where the Magic community was only a fraction of what it is today. If a card from one of these sets is discovered to be very synergistic with a new card it, it will spike out of nowhere because the amount of copies that exist are marginal compared to the demand it will see from interacting well with a newer card. It is very hard to keep on top of all the potential combinations that exist without a good grasp on the community resources available to discover these interactions. So I will state that card rarity is always a factor in a spike, because even uncommons (Remand) can become grossly expensive without a reprint.

Just because because a card is rare or hard to find does not mean that its spike is warranted. Aluren would be a good example of this – it’s a card that has a legacy deck to its name and is a casual favorite that a lot of players remember having tons of fun with. It never sustained its price, though, because the deck failed to put up enough results compared to other currently existing legacy decks. Due to the lack of demand, it then dropped down close to the original price from which it spiked. In order to avoid buying high into potential scenarios like Aluren, you want to make sure you pick up the card before it has seen a massive increase in price, you want to make sure that it can fit into a deck that has proven results backing it up, you want to make sure that even if it isn’t tournament playable that it can be popular with casual and EDH players, and you finally want to make sure that it is from a set that had a relatively small print run compared to current sets (like the post-reserve list sets I mentioned above).

So in summary, the combination of emotional investing and card rarity are a recipe for a card spike. Whether the spike is real or whether it will ultimately become a bust can be hard to spot without extensive knowledge of the current tournament scene and correctly identifying the casual appeal of a card. With time comes experience, and I’m sure we’ve all made mistakes in the past in regard to cards and spikes – I certainly have. All we can do is to keep working at it and make sure that the characteristics of a card match up well with the reasons a card could spike. It can sure feel like the wild west at times with all of these card spikes, but realize that many of them can’t sustain those prices for very long and are mainly driven emotional investing and card rarity.

Weekend Update 7/5/14

By: Jim Marsh

Every week, some cards from Magic the Gathering increase and decease in value based upon a number of factors.

Let’s take a look at some of the cards whose values have changed the most and the factors behind why those changes have occurred.

10 Big Winners of the Week

10. Chandra, the Firebrand (M13)
From $3.73 to $4.16 (11.53%)

Chandra, the Firebrand is a planeswalker in an interesting place. Her power is entirely dependent on the context in which she is played.

She can really shine in a format where there are powerful 1/1 or 2/1s.

She needs to be in a deck with powerful spells that are worth copying.

This puts her in a great place in certain Commander decks and Cubes.

I feel that the $3 range is certainly too low for any planeswalker including Tibalt. I do not know of any other reason why she is seeing an increase at this time.

This does not mean that she is without financial merit. Right now you can buylist her for $2.50 which is almost the same price as the lowest vendor at $2.54

Any time you can get a card for the same or better than buylist is a chance to get stock and an exit strategy with minimal risk.

9. Trickbind (Time Spiral)
From $4.74 to $5.38 (13.50%)

One day someone is going to run a Modern deck that runs Trickbind and Shadow of Doubt just to mess with people trying to use Birthing Pod or fetchlands.

It will lose but it would be a great way to troll the metagame.

Trickbind is a terrific sideboard and I have wondered why it was half the price of Shadow of Doubt. It is marginally more splashable and has Split Second at the expense of a cantrip.

It is also the closest thing to Stifle we have in Modern. The right deck for it to hate on has not quite surfaced but now is a pretty good time to grab a few.

The lowest vendor price is $3.50 and buylists have already climbed to $3.25.

8. Admonition Angel (Worldwake)
From $5.18 to $5.90 (13.90%)

Admonition Angel is a mythic rare from Worldwake. That set was only opened in very limited quantities for a short period of time. The third set in the block was Rise of the Eldrazi which was a large set.

If you are opening up a Worldwake pack and pull a mythic we all know that everything looks like a consolation prize compared to Jace, the Mind Sculptor.

It is still an angel that provides a form of removal or a roundabout flicker effect.

It has casual appeal written all over it.

It is also on the list of cards with a negative spread. The lowest vendor is selling it for $3.00 and the highest buylists are offering $3.50 so you can turn these into a little cash as well.

7. Enchanted Evening (Shadowmoor)
From $4.63 to $5.34

I cannot find any competitive decks that are running Enchanted Evening but I can guarantee you casual Johnnies are working to break it.

It can be an interesting fit for Prison or Enchantress decks and has amazing synergies with constellation cards.

The increase in demand has pushed buylists to $3.50 while copies can still be found for $3.28.

6. Llanowar Wastes (10th Edition)
From $4.14 to $5.09 (22.95%)

Just a few weeks ago I could find painlands alongside bulk nonbasic lands for a quarter a piece.

Those days are over for now.

This is their fourth printing so I doubt we will see them hitting $10 but everyone who plays standard will need their playsets of the appropriate colors.

The scrylands a slow but offer a free scry so I expect to see them continued to be used in midrange and more controlling decks.

Painlands will be used by aggressive and combo decks who do not mind sacrificing a few points of life to win a turn earlier.

If the rumors are true that Khans of Tarkir will be a wedge block then we could see Llanowar Wastes played in Junk and BUG builds.

Those are usually slower decks that will grind and opponent over the course of the game. I would suggest trading these for other enemy painlands.

5. Yavimaya Coast (9th Edition)
From $4.92 to $6.08 (23.58%)

Yavimaya Coast is only slightly better off than Llanowar Wastes.

It would be useful for BUG or RUG decks. It can also be used in Bant hexproof decks.

I expect this to have a more stable price over the course of the next year. It even sees some limited play in Modern Bant Pillow Fort which is a deck almost as funny as its name implies.

Trade your Llanowar Wastes for Yavimaya Coasts if you have the chance.

It at least comes in the colors of degenerate things like Prophet of Kruphix.

4. Mesmeric Orb (Mirrodin)
From $2.18 to $2.75 (26.15%)

Mill has long been popular strategy with casual players in every format conceivable.

Mesmeric Orb looks innocuous but for the low investment of a couple mana lets you mill you opponents for doing sill things like tapping lands for mana or tapping their creatures to attack you or use abilities.

This is even one of the few milling strategies that translates well to multiplayer.

This is another card that has a narrow margin between vendors buying and selling the card.

You can get them for $1.75 and sell them for $1.50.

I would just buy a play set and sit on them. The power of mill has caused slow and steady growth in a number of cards. I would feel comfortable sitting on these for a while with a minimal investment.

3. Eidolon of the Great Revel (Journey into Nyx)
From $4.03 to $5.23 (29.78%)

In Standard, Modern or Legacy your burn decks want to play with a full four copies of Eidolon in the main deck.

The ability to attack as a 2/2 for two mana and get in a free shock if they use removal spell has made this card a staple.

Modern and Legacy are defined by their powerful two and three mana cards.

This led to a first place finish in the SCG Legacy Open last week and a 9th place finish this week when everyone came prepared.

Rotation is looming and when the card pool is the smallest quick aggressive decks tend to do very well

I do not normally advocate picking up cards that are already on the rise but this is one you will want to hold onto.

Journey into Nyx was also drafted less than a normal third set would be with Conspiracy nipping on its heels only weeks after release.

2. Flames of the Blood Hand (Betrayers of Kamigawa)
From $1.31 to $1.75 (33.59%)

Burn decks are on fire and every Modern burn deck runs Flames of the Blood Hand either in the main deck or in the sideboard.

It helps overcome speed bumps like Kitchen Finks or painful interactions with Archangel of Thune.

This is a card I have found in plenty of bulk boxes so you can still find them relatively easily.

They are buylisting at $0.89 and you can purchase them for as low as $0.70.

If you want to double up on the life hating fun you can find Skullcrack for as low as $0.25 and sell them for as much as $0.50.

1. Battlefield Forge (9th Edition)
From $2.27 to $3.74 (64.76%)

Of all the enemy painlands I am most excited about Battlefield Forge.

Boros Burn has already has a presence in Standard and Modern.

This card is well positioned to help power out that early burn and Boros burn spells like Lightning Helix and Warleader’s Helix help recover the life without missing a beat.

I expect this to be the fastest growing painland this fall.

5 Big Losers of the Week

5. Ajani, Caller of the Pride (M13)
From $7.99 to $6.63 (-17.02%)

Ajani has had a busy year. He started out Calling the Pride got into Mentoring Heroes and is now incredibly Steadfast.

Caller of Pride is powerful as a three mana planeswalker but it has been printed twice and is now getting ready to rotate.

It has not seen any adoption into Modern so its price is just getting ready to take a big hit.

You can still sell them for up to $4.51 which is fantastic considering the lowest vendor is selling them for $4.75.

I would unload them while I could.

4. Shadowborn Demon (M14)
From $5.90 to $4.77 (-19.15%)

Shadowborn Demon has seen some play recently in BG and Junk Standard decks but no one uses him in Modern. Casual decks have many more tempting demons to play with.

It will be going down to $2 to $3 sooner rather than later. I would get out. The only thing that will save it from being bulk is the fact that it is a mythic rare demon.

3. Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth (PLC)
From $36.34 to $28.27 (-22.21%)

Modern and legacy

Modern Jund, Dead Guy Ale 4 Color Loam, BG Obliterator

Legacy 4 Color Loam, Pox

Standard

EDH

Low Vendor 19.95

High Buylist 21.61

2. Chord of Calling(Ravnica)
From $38.11 to $27.82 (-27.00%)

From Melira Pod to Kiki Pod and almost every Pod variant in between Chord of Calling does some heavy lifting.

It provides redundancy and helps keep toolbox decklists consistent.

The announcement that it was being reprinted in M15 caused a great stir in price. This is great as a financier.

It has huge appear to Timmies and Spikes alike.

Some places are dropping the price more than others. We can profit from the discrepancies.

You can buy these as low as $19.99 which is great if you have been meaning to pick them up anyway.

You can also sell them for $21.61 which is great if you want to sit out Modern season. You can sell them now

(or better yet a month ago) and buy replacement copies for a fraction of the cost in a month.

1. Garruk Relentless (Innistrad)
From $4.15 to $1.99 (-52.05%)

Garruk Relentless is only played in Legacy Nic Fit but any planeswalker with five abilities should have a higher price tag than this. It is a double sided mythic rare planeswalker tied heavily into a storyline interaction that has already occurred. This makes it one of the toughest cards to reprint in Modern.

I would grab some cheap copies before the price bounces back.

The Right and the Wrong of the Past Year

By: Cliff Daigle

Last week, I went over five of my best articles of the past year. Today, I’d like to go over some assorted statements I got right and wrong, and perhaps why.

The bad news first.

Planning Ahead for Commander 2013

I made two specific predictions in here. One, that the Zendikar fetches would be reprinted in these decks. Oops. But then again, we’re going to predict those reprints over and over again until they happen, because everyone wants them to happen.

I also said that the foil versions of Command Tower would be breaking $20 when these decks came out, and they have actually ticked downward. I still like picking these up in foil, as there’s been only two ways to get it in foil, and neither of which is easy to find in trade. As soon as someone trades for it, it goes into a deck.

Cents and Sensibility

While I firmly believe that Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx is a plant for the coming block, it’s getting difficult to stomach trading for something at $10 and seeing it dip to the nearly $5 it’s at now.

I’m only in for a dozen copies, so if it doesn’t pan out, I’m not too deeply in the red, but it’ll sting. I’d be likely to just sit on them and wait for the casual appeal to tick it back upward,

To happier subjects! Meaning, what have I been right about?

Where’s the Price Drop?

I stand by this, not in a financial sense but in a self-assessment sort of way. It’s important both professionally and personally that when you make a mistake, you look at why you made that error and how you can avoid it.

I think my biggest error there was overestimating how much M14 was opened. Several rares and mythics from that set have kept a high price despite seeing low numbers in play. All of M14 is about to rotate, and people have started to move on.

Side note: Garruk, Caller of Beasts has a Fair Trade price under $10. I’m trying hard to get these because they are just outstanding in any casual format. A plus ability that digs deep? Sold.

Are You a Collector?

You need to know this. Everything’s a reprint! Everything! This is sound financial advice, especially as we see Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth and Chord of Calling as incoming reprints. I believe that the originals will take a hit but they needed to. They didn’t see enough tournament play for their prices.

Don’t trade or buy cards that can be reprinted based on their scarcity. Pick them up based on how well they would survive a reprint.

Neat Tricks with MTGPrice

This is the first article I refer people to. There are a lot of features built into this site and you should take advantage. Prices, ProTrader, and more. I use these constantly and you should too.

I’m going to link to another article but it’s not yet time for me to evaluate how well I did:

October Price Rotation Targets

In a couple of months, I’ll be able to give that the right amount of time to see how well I did. Some I was right, some I was wrong. That’s one I’m looking forward to, mostly. Some things, I’m dreading.

Join me next week when we go over some Magic 2015 cards!

MAGIC: THE GATHERING FINANCE ARTICLES AND COMMUNITY