The Gilded Goblin

Let’s Play Spike or Hype

2 Comments

By: Jared Yost

It’s that time again folks! As you may be aware these days cards seem to be spiking out of nowhere. Does the spike have merit, signaling a card has corrected itself in price? Is it just hype or a buyout where somebody thinks they struck gold but really it’s fools gold? Let’s take a look at the facts and try to analyze what’s going on here.

FNM Gitaxian Probe and New Phyrexia Gitaxian Probe FOIL

I think that this spike, in terms of what it was versus what it became, is very shocking. FNM Probe’s started at $2.50-$3 in January, with a minor rise to $4-$5 until last week, to the current spiked price of $15. From January until now that is a 500% increase. Similarly, NPH Gitaxian Probe foils were $4-$6 back in January and now are around $30 on tcgplayer. I knew it was a solid target but at the same time I was surprised at how far these two versions jumped because the card is a common. However, it just goes to show you that rarer forms of commons can certainly hold a premium price if they are sought after enough. An extreme would be foil Japanese Brainstorm which is worth about $340.

In general, Twitter contains some solid advice if you are following the right people for magic finance. Back in January, Twitter got me thinking about Gitaxian Probe foils (I believe @JasonEAlt made this tweet but unfortunately I couldn’t find it.) When I saw tweets about FNM Gitaxian Probe and Foil New Phyrexia Gitaxian Probe being criminally underpriced I looked into it further.

After my research, I also thought it was a solid pick for two reasons. First is that it is played in both Modern and Legacy, which means that foil copies will retain demand over time from the eternal players that eventually like to foil out their decks. Second is that Phyrexian mana spells are really hard to reprint since it is such a set specific mechanic. Everyone remembers Mental Misstep, so due to that huge mistake I think that Wizards is very hesitant to bring a mechanic like this back.

I then went to TCGPlayer and saw tons of FNM copies listed at $2.50 per piece and NPH foil copies listed from $4-$6. I thought that this was a low price considering the amount of play the card was seeing and picked up my copies accordingly. I’ve had them ever since and am glad I was able to capitalize on the Twitter advice.

Going forward I would say that the new price is going to stick especially for NPH foil copies. It is a card that is popular in both Legacy and Modern and I don’t see it going away for a long time due to it being a “free” spell.

Ancient Tomb

This spike, at least for me, was eerily similar to the Gitaxian Probe spike in terms of how I heard about it and the time it took from hearing that advice until the time that it decided to spike. Just like Gitaxian Probe, I first heard about Ancient Tomb on Twitter via the Brainstorm Brewery podcast. Being the counterpart to the other two-colorless land City of Traitors that is played in Legacy archetypes, they noticed that City of Traitors was $70 while Ancient Tomb was $10. Wasteland, which has gone over $130 recently, is a good example here of how underpriced Ancient Tomb was since it was from the same set. Although clearly Wasteland sees a ton more play than Ancient Tomb, $10 is quite low for a Legacy staple considering its power level.

Again, just like Probe, I checked out the price on TCGPlayer and the average in February was $10. Again, I picked up copies accordingly because I agreed that Ancient Tomb was popular and looked underpriced due to the play it was seeing. I regret not purchasing FTV: Realms copies of Ancient Tomb, since they are the only foil copy and have spiked way harder than the Tempest copies have.

For both, I believe that this new price is here to stay. A solid Legacy staple from an older set that will have a home in Legacy archetypes, it was only a matter of time before this happened.

Food Chain

Due to the hype that Food Chain received from being a playset in a namesake deck that came in 4th place at the recent SCG: Los Angeles Legacy Open on 3/23/2014, it is no surprise that others decided to buy in. It went from $5 to $13, which is interesting because the first time this card spiked is when Misthollow Griffin was first spoiled back in Avacyn Restored. Around then it jumped up to about $13 as well, but since no one could do anything with the deck at the time it dropped right back down to its original price of around $5 after several months. Now that a Misthollow Griffin deck featuring Food Chain has placed in a SCG Open Top 8, I believe the new price is here to stick and could even increase if the deck keeps seeing Top 8 or Top 16 appearances.

Besides Food Chain, other cards from this deck to watch include Manipulate Fate and Shardless Agent. Manipulate Fate may seem like a strange target but I like foil copies at $0.50. If others decide to build this deck, clearly $0.25 for an uncommon from a set as old as Invasion seems low. It wouldn’t hurt to pick up a playset for yourself if you plan on building this deck for a Legacy event. Shardless Agent has already proven itself as a solid card in Legacy, with an archetype to its name (Shardless BUG) and only one printing in a somewhat limited product. This new archetype could be what it takes to get the Agent over $20.

Autumn Willow

Huh, going from $1 or less to $5 suddenly seems strange for this Homelands rare. I’m guessing a buyout occurred on TCGPlayer where someone bought up all the copies in hopes of turning them around at a later point for profit. Unfortunately for them, this card just isn’t that good. I realize that is has pseudo-hexproof but it just can’t compete with the all the crazy new kids on the block these days. I’m not sure if it will be ever less than $2 due to rarity alone but it is certainly not worth $5 and definitely not worth buying in at this point.

Leonin Arbiter

Going from less than a $1 to $2-$3 may not be much of a spike but it is certainly a double up at the least. Leonin Arbiter is a fine card in the Modern Hatebear deck and even sees play from time to time in Legacy in Death and Taxes, although this appearance is much rarer than Modern. I can see why someone would be looking to pick these up. Though he isn’t as great as Thalia (which also has gone up recently) or Aven Mindcensor in Modern, he is still usually seen as a playset in the the Hatebear decks that do exist. Modern is still pretty wide open, so even though his price has already doubled I think he still has room for future growth. This current spike is just a price correction.

I wouldn’t be surprised if he even climbed as high as $5 during Modern season if Hatebears puts up any Top 8 results. I wouldn’t actively trade for these guys as he plays a limited role in only one deck archetype and is from a fairly recent large set, but if you plan on playing Hatebears try to pick up your playset before Modern season goes into full swing.

 

Silent-Blade Oni & Ghostly Prison

I’ll lump these two together because they are both spiking cards that derive their demand largely from the casual market. Ghostly Prison does see play in Legacy and Modern from time to time but clearly its demand is 95% casual.

Ghostly Prison has demand but its price is contingent on when the next reprint happens. Stocking up on these and then seeing Wizards announce a product where it is reprinted will be bad for whoever decides to buy in at $7. Wizards has already reprinted Ghostly Prison three times so they have shown they want to get copies out there. Stay far away from this one, since there is almost no demand from the tournament scene and it could be reprinted at any time. If you have extra Prisons trade them into more solid long term gainers.

On the other hand, my first impressions of Silent-Blade Oni missed the mark. Silent-Blade Oni has a good chance of sticking to the new price. I now realize that since it only has one printing and utilizes the block specific mechanic Ninjutsu, there are only so many products that this guy could go into besides Commander or something similar. I wouldn’t expect him to go up in price again for quite a while since it already spiked last month. Even if it does spike again, you would be risking a lot for something where there is not a lot of money to be made. Clearly the casual market is a strong force but I would look to other targets as there is not really much money to be made here for the amount of time that you will need to wait and having the possibility of a reprint loom over your head.

  

Volcanic Island, Underground Sea, Plateau

Well, I think we’ve all seen this before. Starcity has a track record of raising their buylist prices on Legacy staples like dual lands in the hope that people will sell them what they have… only to then increase their store prices on those same dual lands by a huge margin to match the buylist increase. This is because they have a huge pulse on the market, being one of the top retailers of Magic products in the world, and use their inventory data to make price corrections based on the actual demand some of these cards are seeing so that they can capitalize off the demand.

If you’ve been playing this game long enough, dual lands going up in price should be no shock to you. Be aware that these days they can really go up a lot without much time for you to react and pick up them before the next spike. Long term, they are great gainers since the Reserved List guarantees that we won’t be seeing them or anything like them again.

I do share similar feelings with Travis about Modern replacing Legacy, and once that paradigm shift occurs I also agree that the dual lands won’t be the cards that go down. They’ll just teeter off, and go up slowly but surely like the Power 9 does over time. The takeaway here is that if you want dual lands you will need to budget, act according to your own needs, and develop a purchase plan if you are looking to eventually pick them up. I predict that they will spike a few more times before Modern replaces Legacy so the sooner you are able to act the better.

Final Thoughts

Here to Stay:
– Foil versions of Gitaxian Probe (FNM, New Phyrexia)
– Ancient Tomb
– Food Chain
– Leonin Arbiter
– Dual Lands

Ancient Tomb, Food Chain, and Leonin Arbiter are the shakiest inclusions for this category because of the reprint fear. However, for these three cards I don’t see that being a factor for quite some time. If you want to acquire them the new price is your reality and you won’t be getting a deal easily but they will trade well.

Risky:
– Ghostly Prison
– Silent-Blade Oni

Cards that derive their demand from the casual market and are reprintable are risky pickups. I would stay away from these, but if I see a good deal on them I would take it in the hopes of trading them for more solid gainers.

Stay Away:
– Autumn Willow

No real play, either in casual or tournament environments. Outclassed by newer cards with better effects. Acquire for gains at your own peril.

Uncategorized

Weekend Recap – Legacy in Los Angeles

3 Comments

By Jim Marsh

Every week cards from Magic: the Gathering increase and decease in value based upon a number of factors.

Let’s take a look at some of the cards whose values have changed the most, and the factors behind why those changes occurred.

10 Big Winners of the Week

10. Wasteland

$109.98 to $133.99 (21.8%)

This card is no stranger to anyone who plays or follows Legacy. Strip Mine is banned and this is the Land Destroying Real Estate of choice. It can and does work in pretty much every deck in the format. In fact, it is pretty hard to come up with a Legacy deck that does not make use of the Tempest uncommon. There is a reason that it is the most played land in Legacy. \

Legacy as a format is still vibrant and strong. Even with articles lamenting its oncoming death. Wasteland is also a desirable inclusion in Commander, Cube and pretty much any format that will allow it.

The power of a land that can destroy your opponent’s nonbasics is only amplified in a format with such backbreaking lands as The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale, Karakas, Rishadan Port, Cavern of Souls, Mishra’s Factory, Creeping Tar Pit, and Dual Lands.

A lot of Legacy decks don’t even run many, if any basic lands, so it is a target rich environment.

I expect this card to just keep climbing.

 

9. Grafdigger’s Cage

$2.20 to $2.71 (23.2%)

This is the quintessential sideboard card. For one mana you can turn off entire strategies. Suddenly Green Sun’s Zenith, Reanimate, Exhume, Snapcaster Mage and friends look pretty silly.

Innistrad has been out of print for about a year now, and given the name, it is not easy to reprint. It might show up in a supplemental product, but those rarely have pure hate cards in them.

I have long felt that this card did not deserve to be considered bulk, and it seems like the rest of the world agrees.

You may find a few trade partners that are still willing to give these away as toss-ins or to make room in their binder for something more exciting.

8. Twilight Mire

$19.99 to $25.48 (27.5%)

Modern prices have been increasing across the board recently, and it looks like Twilight Mire’s time to shine is upon us.

It can help us get our mana ready to cast Abrupt Decay, Tarmogoyf, Dark Confidant or Scavenging Ooze and not break a sweat.

It is showing up in Modern Jund builds, as well as the G/B and Junk Obliterator decks.

I would take a good long look at the Shadowmoor filter lands. Right now everyone is (rightfully) clamoring for the reprinting of Scalding Tarn and friends, but after the influx of Shocklands in Return to Ravnica, these can play an important role in fixing your mana without requiring an investment of $100 per land in your mana base.

They are usually played as a 1 or 2 of in color relevant decks, but if people protest the price of Zendikar fetches, more and more will be tempted to experiment with filter lands.

7. Seizan, Perverter of Truth

$2.52 to $3.28 (30.2%)

In Kamigawa every rare creature was a legendary creature. Some of them were hits. Some were misses. Some have been sleepers for a long time. 

With the rise of the Commander format, a lot of people have been dusting off old Legendary creatures and giving them a spin either as a Commander or as part of their 99.

Seizan, Perverter of Truth is one of those, and giving everyone a free Night’s Whisper (or Sign in Blood) each turn is an interesting effect.

Normally a symmetrical effect like this starts with you on the raw end of the deal. You pay the mana and your opponents all get the extra cards before you do. (Think of tapping out for Howling Mine.)

This time at least that means they all get to pay life before you do.

He is also a strong possible inclusion in Nekuzar, the Mindrazer decks, which breaks the symmetry right in half and forces each of your opponents to take at lose at least 5 life a turn. That adds up quickly, and that may be why Seizan has moved from Bulk Rare to a decent price tag in the past few weeks.

6. Volcanic Island

$180.50 to $240.12 (33.0%)

There are a finite amount of Dual lands from Alpha, Beta and Unlimited in existence. I don’t know what that amount is, but as the amount of players grow and the opportunity to play Legacy looks more enticing, people will be fighting over these scarce resources.

You need a good strong, consistent mana base in Legacy (or any format) and the original Dual Lands are as strong and consistent as the get. They are restricted and are largely considered among the most stable collector’s items in the history of the game short of the Power 9.

I don’t think we will ever see these any cheaper than they are now. It’s been growing aggressively, and I would not be surprised to see the other Dual Lands (especially the Blue ones) hurry to catch up.

5. Hurkyl’s Recall

$14.99  to $23.90 (49.1%)

What do you do when you are playing Modern and the most aggressive, successful deck in the format is Affinity? How about a one sided Upheaval? For two mana?

What do you bounce? An Aether Vial? That’s a bargain.

Besides being in the sideboard for Modern Merfolk, Ad Nauseam, Faeries and other decks, it was also the subject of a recent buy out.

I see it coming back down, and quickly. It has been printed 5 times. It is a sideboard card against one deck, where a lot of sideboard cards have versatility that can be used against different strategies.

I would not get in on this (but try to move any you have that you don’t need to play with in the mean time.)

4. Sewer Nemesis

$3.08 to $4.67 (51.6%)

This card has only been printed once, in the original batch of Commander decks.

It has not seen any place in any competitive deck ever played, and probably won’t.

It is pretty fun in Mill decks that use creatures like this and Consuming Aberration.

Phenax, God of Deception loves cards like this. It is a perfect fit in a Phenax Commander deck, and the supply is pretty low.

I am surprised to see it jump this much (it has been hovering about $2 since it was printed) and don’t see it going up much, but I bet some people will still give it to you as trade evener if you ask.

3. Ancient Tomb

$16.66 to $35.00 (110.1%)

Ancient Tomb is an important part of certain Legacy decks that need mana now to power out something gross and end the game.

These decks include Imperial Painter’s, OmniTell, Sneak and Show, MUD, etc.

It has steadily been growing for the past several months, and it has just started to explode. Its power level makes it unlikely to be reprinted in any Standard format, and even supplemental products are questionable. It was included in From the Vaults: Realms, but other than that this uncommon from Tempest has really made its presence known.

I don’t think it will hold onto this aggressive growth for long. It will dip back, not quite to the $10 it was at earlier, but probably back down to $20 or so, and then begin to grow again steadily.

I even think it will get back to $35 eventually, but not for a while yet.

2. Food Chain

$5.00 to $11.26  (125.2%)

Food Chain? Really? On Sunday it made the semifinals in a Los Angeles Legacy SCG event, but this feels like it came out of nowhere.

It has been a $5 card for a while, but the combo with Food Chain and Misthollow Griffin lets you get infinite mana and cheat out Emrakul, the Aeons Torn and several other value creatures.

It is interesting as a metagame choice, but compared to other Legacy decks, it seems a little unwieldy.

The price got as high as $15 before settling down to $11 and I think it will settle even further.

Even still, if you had some sitting in your trade binder, Sunday was your lucky day.

1. Leonin Arbiter

$0.89 to $2.77 (211.2%)

Now there’s a spec I am happy to see. Modern has a lot of decks that want to tutor for various cards. Birthing Pod and Chord of Calling want creatures. Ranger of Eos wants friends. Everyone wants to use their Misty Rainforest to find a Stomping Ground or Breeding Pool. 

Leonin Arbiter says not without a cost. It sets people behind when they want to use their fetchlands.

It is slows down Birthing Pod.

It makes your Path to Exile so much better.

All while providing a 2/2 to block and attack with.

It gets used in Modern GW Hatebears, Death and Taxes, UW Tempo decks and a few variations on each theme. It has been a Bulk Rare for far too long.

Modern is an increasingly expensive format. Sometimes that really bothers people. Sometimes it is just time for others to realize how good certain cards are.

If Aven Mindcensor can be $12, I see no reason why Leonin Arbiter can’t be $3. (Or even $5!)

5 Big Losers of the Week

5. Cabal Therapy

$15.59 to $13.97 (-10.4%)

I don’t think that Cabal Therapy is going away any time soon. It provides too much information and punch for its cost to ever be considered anything other than strong.

Recently it went from steady growth at $10 to an overnight jump to $20. Like Ancient Tomb, it is now settling again. I think it’s settling is just about over.

I probably have misnamed my Losers of the Week.

I think a better term would be Bargains of the Week.

Think of this as getting a coupon for 10% off Cabal Therapy. Or 30% off the high point.

I should just remind you that everyone playing ANT, Dredge, Nic-Fit, Manaless Dredge, Oops! All Spells!, anything with Young Pyromancer and more will all want their Cabal Therapys.

4. Old Man of the Sea

$52.38 to $59.98 (-11.9%)

Old Man of the Sea has been $40 for a while. It recently jumped to $60 for almost no reason. There is no demand from people who want to play the card, just collect it.

Are there really that many fans of this effect? Using creatures to steal other creatures is great, but there are other powerful ways to do it.

You can use Gilded Drake or Sower of Temptation.

You can use Threads of Disloyalty or Vedalken Shackles.

They all have more flexibility or power.

Yes, it’s on the Restricted List. Yes, it was only printed in Arabian Nights, but it bought to sit in a binder, not in a deck.

I see this one going back to the $40 where it came from.

3. Skullclamp

$6.20 to $5.44 (-12.3%)

This is a tough card to price. It is not played competitively because it is banned in both Modern and Legacy.

It got reprinted in both From the Vault: Exiled and in the original Commander decks.

It is still very powerful in the Commander format, but that is one of the few places you can play it. It was sitting at a pretty reasonable $3 to $4 for a while but tried to correct to $6. I think that was a little too much, which is why I think it will come down to $5.

It combos with pretty much any deck that can produce small creatures and wants to draw cards, so I don’t think Wizards will unban it any time soon. If they did the jump would be amazing (see Bitterblossom.)

2. Dragonlair Spider

$5.49 to $4.79 (-12.8%)

This is another Casual exclusive. It has seen two printings, and I would not be surprised to see it in Conspiracy. It cries out “play with me in a multiplayer environment!”

The past month has been interesting, with it fighting to get from $3 to almost $6 in value, but there has not been enough interest to sustain it. Maybe $4 is about right for now.

At least Ruric Thar and Jund Commanders love you Dragonlair Spider.

1. Silent-Blade Oni

$8.79 to $7.48 (-14.9%)

The creature type Demon Ninja looks so cool, how could it not be a winner? While the effect looks cool on paper (and I hope someone has gotten to cast a free Cruel Ultimatum with it!) it is rather expensive and cumbersome for all but the most casual of decks. 

In Commander you can hope your opponent has an Overwhelming Forces in their hand and not just a Rampant Growth.

It has been a $4 to $5 card for a while, and tried to get to $9, but it looks like it is on its way back down.

Ninjas are a personal favorite creature type, but there is a reason why Ninja of the Deep Hours and Ink-Eyes, Servant of Oni are the most popular.

Their effects all but guarantee card advantage and are reasonably costed.

Six mana is a bit much for an effect that may not even have a valid target.

I’d stay away until it get back below $5.

Casual Fridays

Fear and Finance

By: Cliff Daigle

I have extolled my viewpoint as a casual financier before, but to summarize, I don’t like to buy cards. I like to trade for my EDH cards, and I have had a string of a few years where I’ve slowly built up the value of my collection this way. I don’t speculate on cards in the sense that I will go buy a stack of them, but I will trade for them when the price is right. I like to plan ahead, trading for things when they are cheap and trading them away when they aren’t.

I’ve rung the bell for Thespian’s Stage and Prophet of Kruphix over and over. Both of those are buylisting for a lot more right now than they were early on. I should know–as part of selling out some Commander decks, I got $2 for Prophet and $1 for Stage.

Over the past few months, I’ve traded for 50 Prophets and 40 Stages. Non-foils, at least. I’ve got a couple of each in foil but those are in decks and not part of my plan. I’m expecting those cards to grow in the next year, dip a little, and begin a long-term increase in value because they are amazing in casual formats.

But if these are casual cards, what happens if they get the EDH ban?

What about if I had a playset of foil Deathrite Shamans, and now they aren’t Modern-legal? It was going to spike so hard eventually! What if I trade for 20 Birthing Pods, and when Journey into Nyx comes out, Wizards bans that card from Modern too?

Welcome to the fear.

There is always a chance that your plan doesn’t work. This is true in any setting, Magic or not. The unexpected will happen. Your car will break down. You will have an injury. Someone else’s bad day will turn into your bad day.

There is not much you can do to prevent the unexpected, but managing your fear is a necessary part of financial planning. Your can’t-miss spec…will sometimes miss.

If you’re feeling the cold grip of fear, there are two ways to stay warm:

#1: Diversify

Here at MTGPrice, you’re going to get all sorts of tips and tricks. You don’t have to take all of our advice, it’s up to you. But you should do more than zero in on one card and buy only that card. You want to have a few things lined up, stored away for when their price increases. 

The amount of diversification you do is proportional to the amount of money you’re comfortable spending. There are people with the bankroll to decide on a card, and then spend $50, or $100, or what they want to. My policy was simpler on these two cards: I’d take all that someone wanted to trade.

I do think there’s a chance that Prophet gets banned in Commander within the next year. It’s not overtly overpowered, as it is a creature, and enables creatures, but in effect, you’ve got multiple Time Warp effects. You get to take a turn every time someone else takes a turn. You get to cast creatures and instants, with all of your mana, on each of your opponents’ turns. While that isn’t much of a strategy in and of itself, it doesn’t take much to get out of hand. Perhaps most obnoxious about the card is the time factor, since one player’s extra turns means that much more time that player has to do things, the more time other spend waiting.

Just imagine you have Prophet out, with a Sprout Swarm in your hand. Everyone is going to want you dead, simply because you’re spending more and more time playing with yourself and building an army.

So if Prophet of Kruphix gets the Commander ban, the long-term prospects take a dive. I wouldn’t try to hold the card past Christmas 2014.

Thespian’s Stage is a card I feel is also dripping with long-term potential, but it’s quite unlikely that it gets banned in EDH. This is my way of managing my risk. I don’t have all my money tied up in Prophet, so if something goes wrong with one of these two, I have other options.

#2: Consideration

This is not an action to take, it’s more of mindset to have. When you choose what cards to buy in on, you do so after some amount of thinking about it. 

That reflection should also be present when you’re worried about those choices.

Remind yourself that seemingly every card that is ever played in Modern is $5. And it could go up higher! Tell yourself that Deadeye Navigator, Kiki-Jiki, Palinchron, and a host of other cards aren’t banned yet in Commander either!

This is also when you make ‘just-in-case’ plans. For instance, I’m going to be content to sell most of my Prophets during the next block, minimizing my risk on the rest. Or if it gets banned before I sell, I’ll be able to look at other cards and feel not-quite-as-bad. Even Primeval Titan is still retaining value, despite not making Constructed waves and getting banned in EDH.

I hope you’re able to stock up on cards with less anxiety, and if you need some tips, I’m a believer on these two cards.

Think Twice, Uncategorized

Magic Online and You: An Intro

1 Comment

By: Camden Clark

Many people have little understanding of how important Magic Online is to MTG finance.

They are really missing out. If you fail to take full advantage of Magic Online, you too are missing on some valuable opportunities.

Think about it: Magic Online is where all the pros play. Moreover, it is the de facto deck testing platform for anyone heading into a competitive event. These are people who will pay any sum to have an opportunity to test a deck or just play high-level Magic. This means that there are huge speculation opportunities on Magic Online, as well as having one of the best platforms to determine the progression of cards in paper.

Let’s go over some basics of how the Magic Online economy works.

Event Tickets are the currency of Magic Online. They are used to purchase cards from bots and enter into events. Each one is worth a little less than a dollar, but you can buy them for a dollar from the Wizards store on Magic Online. However, almost everything can and should be purchased outside of the Wizards store by trading with bots or other players.

Bots are what drive Magic Online’s economy. They provide the liquidity for players who want to buy cards. They make their money through occasionally absurd buy/sell margins (especially on eternal cards). They automatically perform buy and sell orders and are basically an automatic cash cow for whoever is running the bot. More on this later.

Most things are cheaper to buy from a bot than buy from Wizard’s store. The most notable example of this is booster packs. Boosters get into the system as rewards from constructed events and draft events, and are used to enter into drafts. Rarely does a current draft set booster pack cost the official four tickets from a bot. Usually, they are at least twenty cents to a dollar cheaper.

Typically, Magic Online card prices are significantly cheaper than their paper counterparts, with a few exceptions (most notably Force of Will).

So how do you get started with utilizing Magic Online?

Magic Online is unforgiving to mistakes. It is quite easy to buy a seemingly perfect speculation opportunity but make some serious mistakes and lose money. That being said, let’s go over some pitfalls first:

Investing in cards with high buy/sell margins

This is a major pitfall of online investment.

Many eternal stapes have extreme margins between the buy and sell prices on the bots. This is because of their low volume. Bots trade standard staples at an exponentially higher rate, thus holding eternal staples is a liability.

Let’s say you purchase a Legacy staple at fifty tickets (essentially dollars). However, the buyback price on the bots is currently thirty-five tickets. That means the sell price would have to go up at least fifteen tickets to be profitable. Those are huge margins that could leave you with significant deficits. Moreover, these cards don’t move in price very quickly. Your money could be tied in a fifty dollar spec for months. That’s not good value.

This is why, in general, I don’t recommend investing in Legacy yet online, especially with the looming Vintage Masters set.

Buying event tickets from the store

This is a small issue, but can be important if you are moving a large volume of event tickets. If you are inside the United States, last time I checked, you pay a dollar per event ticket with no tax at the Wizards store inside Magic Online. This is subject to being changed, of course. For many who aren’t in the US, there can be insane upcharges with tax. Thus, it’s almost a necessity to purchase event tickets outside of the Wizards store.

There are many places to buy event tickets. A quick google search will give you the best ones (I don’t want to endorse one over another-you be the judge). You can often get event tickets for $.97-$.99 per ticket. That’s not too good to be true, that’s just the going rate.

Under this section, I might as well put some general tips when starting out on Magic Online. Don’t open any product you get when starting. Sell your booster pack; you can typically get about two to three event tickets for it.

Don’t play cube unless you want to throw money away.

Getting screwed by the bots

It is very easy to let yourself lose a ton of value by dealing with bots. You will always round up the amount you are paying for cards up to the next event ticket (you cannot have a decimal of event tickets on Magic Online). However, the bot will save your credit. Obviously, this requires trust on your part that the bot will correctly log the amount of credit you have and stay online. I would recommend keeping a word document of the bots you have credit with and searching those for your cards first. That’s a mistake I made.

Make sure to shop around for the best prices of cards. It is certainly possible to pay a dollar or more than you would at a different bot. I have also paid up to five dollars less than the going rate because of an error in bot maintenance. Be mindful of the going rate (MTGOTraders is a ceiling, look for prices above this).

To be honest, the best way to make money directly from Magic Online is to maintain your own bot. That is a topic that goes far beyond the scope of this article. Stay tuned for that.

Those were some pitfalls. It will be confusing at first, and you may make some mistakes.

The key question is: how does this translate into paper investment?

All of the best players play on Magic Online. They test their decks here. They play with other high level grinders here. Where else can you face this kind of competition virtually twenty-four hours a day, seven days a week?

An invaluable gauge for where prices will be is the Magic Online tournaments called Daily Events. Although the name implies they are “daily”, there are Standard tournaments that fire several times a day, with Modern having about half as many of these tournaments.

You can pick up on the latest technology by looking at the tournaments results that are posted every week on dailymtg. Being cognizant of this will vastly improve your ability to make good decisions.

Another useful feature of Magic Online is being able to see good inventory data.

One of the greatest features of Pro Trader here on MTGPrice is the inventory data from retailers. It allows you to see when certain cards are experiencing a buyout and to move in on those cards.

However, Magic Online is a good supplement to this data.

Once you get a “feel” for how much stock major bots have in cards, it is quite easy to see when that stock is being depleted or is simply too low.

This provides you with a barometer of which cards are going to see price swings in paper too.

It’s difficult to quantify, unfortunately. There is nothing like MTGPrice for MTGO, so it’s mostly up to you to gain the understanding and utilize it.

This is constantly what I’m talking about in my articles. There aren’t any silver bullets for MTG finance, you have to use your intuition as a player to make money.

That is the essence of why you should be on Magic Online. You need to be a part of the culture of Magic in order to be effective in investing in it. Would you invest in a company where you knew nothing about the product it sold?

No.

The same goes for Magic. If you are playing in the same events that the pros are, you will develop your sense as a player and investor. The difference is that the people you are playing with aren’t looking to make money, they want to get better at the game. If you are looking for opportunity while playing Magic Online, it will begin to present itself.

I can go over hundreds of cards that might see drastic increases in price. Is that the most helpful thing to you? Does that help you become a better investor?

Not for the long term.

If I spent this article telling you my picks for the next months, it may help you for the next few months.

How about five years?

You can only become a better investor by investing a bit of yourself, especially when your money is going into a game. In our hearts, we are all still players.

So load up Magic Online. Take it for a spin. It’s mediocre (read: shitty) technology, but it’s the platform that Wizards has made for competitive players to test decks. If you’re not on there, you are missing out.

MAGIC: THE GATHERING FINANCE ARTICLES AND COMMUNITY