Journey Into Nyx Event Deck

May 5, 2014 Jared Yost

By: Jared Yost

At the time of each set release I like to review that set’s event deck to see if it is worth it for you to go out and procure that deck based upon the uncommons and rares that Wizards decides to design the deck around. You are not going to win many FNM’s with the deck but it is an easy way for you to boost your collection of more powerful utility cards that could see play in Standard or in other formats. Let’s take a look at Journey into Nyx’s event deck to see how much value it can provide you.

Decklist

Lands
9 Island
4 Izzet Guildgate C
12 Mountain

Creatures
1 Ætherling R
1 Battlefield Thaumaturge R
1 Chandra’s Phoenix R
3 Guttersnipe U
1 Ogre Battledriver R
1 Oracle of Bones R
4 Spellheart Chimera U
3 Young Pyromancer U

Other spells
1 Anger of the Gods R
2 Divination C
1 Fated Conflagration R
2 Flames of the Firebrand U
1 Harness by Force R
4 Lightning Strike C
3 Magma Jet U
1 Mizzium Mortars R
2 Searing Blood U
1 Steam Augury R
2 Turn // Burn U

Sideboard
2 Dispel C
2 Elixir of Immortality U
3 Essence Scatter C
2 Flames of the Firebrand U
3 Izzet Staticaster U
3 Negate C

Analysis

Let me say this right away – you are not buying this deck for the rares. The rares in the deck are very underwhelming. They couldn’t even include Temple of Epiphany or Steam Vents (I guess it was too much hoping for Mana Confluence) to help smooth out your mana? Lame. The wasted rare slot prizes go to Ogre Battledriver, Oracle of Bones, Fated Conflagration, Harness by Force, and Steam Augury. All of these rares can be had for $0.50 retail and are basically bulk rares on TCGPlayer.

The other rares, while nice, also don’t provide you much value. One could argue that Battlefield Thaumaturge is highly underrated right now and its price could go up in the future. Barring this, there is no single card in the deck that is worth more than $4. Mizzium Mortars has been printed in an event deck before (Return to Ravnica) so there are plenty of copies out there to suppress its price. Aethering is a cool, flashy card however it is never played as more than one copy and is barely breaking $1.50 retail. Anger of the Gods is a great Modern card but does it really need a reprint now at $2.50? Chandra’s Phoenix already has two printings in addition to this event deck so I’m not exactly thrilled about its inclusion even though it is $3 – let’s be real, the price wasn’t going any higher regardless of its inclusion in this event deck.

The heart of this event deck is the uncommons. There are so many juicy uncommons. I had to do a double take when I saw that they were including three Young Pyromancer and three Magma Jet and three Guttersnipe – each of these uncommons are worth more than half the deck’s rares. In addition to this, two copies of Turn // Burn and Searing Blood also looks appealing. Spellheart Chimera, Flames of the Firebrand, and Izzet Staticaster are all popular uncommons and the deck includes several of each. Elixir of Immortality is a popular casual uncommon but it has been printed several times already so it is the least exciting uncommon in the deck.

MSRP of the deck is $25. Based on the retail value of the singles, what is the deck worth?

Total value of cards individually:

1 Izzet Guildgate C @ $0.26 each
1 Ætherling R @ $1.67 each
1 Battlefield Thaumaturge R @ $2.12 each
1 Chandra’s Phoenix R @ $3.24 each
3 Guttersnipe U @ $1.06 each
1 Ogre Battledriver R @ $0.44 each
1 Oracle of Bones R @ $0.42 each
4 Spellheart Chimera U @ 0.30 each
3 Young Pyromancer U @ $2.58 each
1 Anger of the Gods R @ $2.34 each
2 Divination C @ $0.13 each
1 Fated Conflagration R @ $0.45 each
4 Flames of the Firebrand U @ $0.17 each
1 Harness by Force R @ $0.53 each
4 Lightning Strike C @ $0.45 each
3 Magma Jet U @ $0.95 each
1 Mizzium Mortars R @ $3.06 each
2 Searing Blood U @ $1.12 each
1 Steam Augury R @ $0.44 each
2 Turn // Burn U @ $0.50 each
2 Dispel C @ $0.19 each
2 Elixir of Immortality U @ $0.40 each
3 Essence ScatterC @ $0.22 each
3 Izzet Staticaster U @ $0.26 each
3 Negate C @ $0.19 each

Total Value: $39.89

This Seems Wrong…

This value is very misleading even though technically it is correct according to retail. Many of the cards in the deck are commons and uncommons and could probably be picked up for way less than the retail price that MTGPrice reports. If we look at just the rares they add up to only $14.71. Desecration Demon and Hero’s Downfall, when they were reprinted in the Born of the Gods event deck, were together worth more than all the rares in this deck combined. That tells you a lot about how terrible most of the rares in this deck are. This also means that the uncommons and commons add up to $25.18 retail. It’s pretty sad when an event deck’s commons and uncommons are worth more than its rares.

This deck is way less powerful than its Born of the Gods counterpart. I included every card in the deck barring basic land, even the cards which would probably be considered bulk and valueless, and it still didn’t even come close to the value of the BNG mono-black event deck. Sure, if you were to buy each individual part of the deck retail it would cost you more than if you just bought this deck as a package at $25 MSRP. However, most players are looking to pick up event decks so that they can get some of pricier Standard rares while also being able to pick up any chase commons or uncommons from the newest set. Here, you’re only really getting good uncommons, which unfortunately I’m guessing that anyone who plays Standard already has. It’s really aggravating to think that there aren’t even any Journey into Nyx uncommons in the deck which are what people need to pick up when the set comes out, another blow to the deck’s already terrible build from a financial perspective.

Regrettably, when uncommons are reprinted it is much more devastating to the price than rares. Since there are already tons of Young Pyromancers, Guttersnipes, and all the other uncommons in the deck out there already, adding more of them to the pool will suppress their prices. This makes me think that the retail value I calculated above for the uncommons will only go down over time since so many of each are included in the deck. You really only want to buy the deck if you don’t have the uncommons and I’m guessing most players already have them. This is a disappointing event deck.

Uncategorized

Weekend Update for 5/3/14

May 3, 2014

By: Jim Marsh

Every week, some cards from Magic the Gathering increase and decease in value based upon a number of factors.

Let’s take a look at some of the cards whose values have changed the most and the factors behind why those changes have occurred.

10 Big Winners of the Week

10. Edric, Spymaster of Trest
$12.34 to $14.33 (16.1%)

I think $12 was the new floor and $14 seems fair for this Commander. It is being used in 4 Color Delver and Noble Fish.

4 Color Delver made Top 8 on 4/20 in Detroit. It is earning its place and I would gladly trade for these at $10 to $12. I would not go too deep in them though. There is only one in the decklist. Commander and Legacy players alike will only need a single copy. It is still something good to keep in the trade binder.

9. Shivan Reef
$6.87 to $7.98 (16.2%)

Modern loves its Izzet decks. From Kiki-Jiki making a billion Pestermites to Goblin Electromancer and Pyromancer Ascension powering up Grapeshot for the win.

Both of these combo decks need their mana fixed consistently and quickly. They need to have blue for Serum Visions or Sleight of Hand and red for Lightning Bolt and Shattering Spree.

They both want to win quickly before Tarmogoyfs can attack for large amounts of damage.

Taking a little pain from your lands is acceptable to end the game a turn earlier.

Despite three printings Shivan Reef is still going strong. I would not recommend any of the other painlands. This is the only one seeing wide adoption. That is why it is so much more than the others.

I think these could be a strong sell as Modern season is approaching they have people looking for them but the power of the card probably gives it a ceiling of around $8. I don’t see this as a $10 card so your profit is already set.

8. Cephalid Coliseum
$2.30 to $2.68 (16.5%)

Cephalid Coliseum has been printed twice. It was an uncommon in Odyssey and it appeared in the From the Vault: Realms.

It is used in Legacy Dredge decks as a full playset.

It is a deceptively powerful land. For a single blue mana you can get an Ancestral Recall and mini-Buried Alive rolled into one.

You get to stock your hand and your graveyard at a very reasonable pace.

What’s more is that in a standstill you can use it offensively. You can target your opponent and essentially Burning Inquiry them to mill for the win.

We have recently seen Ichorid from the same deck increase in price. Mana Confluence from Journey Into Nyx will help the mana in this deck by upgrading City of Brass and will edge out Gemstone Mine or Tarnished Citadel.

More consistent mana should mean a more consistent deck.

I think this increase is deserved and would be happy to trade for them around $2 from anyone who still has old price memory.

7. Shadowborn Demon
$6.06 to $7.15 (18.0%)

Shadowborn Demon is a mythic rare from M14. It is currently used a 2 of in Golgari Dredge Standard decks. It also sees play in Junk Reanimator.

All of its play is in Standard. It has not see any adoption in other formats. I would be surprised to see it reprinted in M15. I would also be surprised to see it stay higher than $1.50 once rotation hits in another couple of months.

There may be a little growth but I don’t see much opportunity compared to the amount of risk associated with this card. I would trade these as fast as I could.

6. Nether Shadow
$1.72 to $2.11 (22.7%)

Nether Shadow is a staple of Legacy Manaless Dredge decks.

The fact that it can be brought back from the graveyard turn after turn and attack or chump block for free gives it immense value.

We are not going to see any future printings because Wizards of the Coast no longer supports cards that care about graveyard order.

It has been printed six times if we count both Alpa and Beta so it will not see explosive growth. It will grow slowly over time.

Nether Shadow knows that sure but steady wins the race.

5. Drop of Honey
$38.75 to $47.74 (23.2%)

Drop of Honey is a rare from Arabian Night. It is powerful as cheap, repeatable green removal. It is also on the reserved list.

Most importantly is that it has been used in mono-green 12 Post decklists as a sideboard card.

I think the fact that this card now buylists at the price it had last week is evidence that retailers have a lot of faith in the card.

12 Post has been making top 16 in MTGO daily listings but if it can break Top 8 I could see this getting to $60 or $70.

4. Karador, Ghost Chieftain
$4.50 to $6.35 (41.1%)

It seems that all of the wedge commanders are being snatched up while the snatching is good. It is easy to see why.

They have color combinations that are difficult to print in normal expansions.

Their abilities are unique and fun.

Karador plays in a lot of space that makes him popular with casuals.

He has interested interactions with the Graveyard and can provide value as he lets you cast your creatures over and over again.

He is one of only four Commanders in his color combination. Each one offers very different styles of deck that they want to be played in.

I think he will continue to grow in value as time goes by. He is tough to reprint in a normal set so the only opportunity for him to show up again is in future supplemental products.

3. Urza’s Miter
$2.44 to $3.98 (63.1%)

I did not even remember that this card existed. It only has two things going for it.

It was a rare from Antiquities so there are few in existence. It is on the Reserved List.

The ability is expensive and does not even work in a deck that wants to sacrifice its artifacts to Megatogs or Grinding Stations.

I see no reason for this price increase except for someone trying to get cute with the market. Stay away.

2. Winding Canyons
$5.85 to $9.61 (64.3%)

This rare from Weatherlight is on the reserved list so there is very little supply.

It is not seeing play in any tournament format. Where is the demand coming from?

There is not a Commander deck in existence that should not ask itself if it should run a Winding Canyon.

The ability to give any creature in any deck flash can disrupt any potential combat situation.

You can trigger evolve, constellation or even throw down a big Blightsteel Colossus or Meglonoth as a surprise blocker.

Just imagine how devastating casting something like Sunblast Angel can be as an Instant during combat.

The last time Wizards of the Coast gave a similar ability to a land was Alchemist Refuge.

I think this price is here to stay.

1. The Mimeoplasm
$3.78 to $7.17 (89.7%)

Everything I said about Karador can be repeated here.

The Mimeoplasm was only printed in the original Commander decks and Commander’s Arsenal.

What I love about The Mimeoplasm is that he is in great colors and let’s you mix and match your creatures in endless combinations.

Need a 15/15 evasive infect creature? Just splice Skithiryx, the Blight Dragon and Worldspine Wurm.

The great thing is that is just gets better as more creatures are printed. I think that this recent surge in prices for Commanders is actually a price adjustment that has been warranted. I would not mind trading for them at these prices if I wanted to play with them.

I do think the chance to make a quick buck has passed.

5 Big Losers of the Week

5. Necropotence
$7.81 to $6.64 (-15.0%)

Necropotence is restricted in Vintage, banned in Legacy and too dangerous to reprint outside of From the Vault: Exiled.

That still leaves casual kitchen tables and mono-bloack Commander decks who want to relive Black Summer.

This card is a piece of Magic history and is one of the most powerful card drawing engines ever printed.

It has shown steady growth for a while and this is just turbulence. I would grab as many at $6 as I could and hold onto them. I would not be surprised to see them as high as $10 by the end of the year.

4. Ghostly Prison
$8.54 to $6.85 (-19.8%)

This looks worse than it is. I still like Ghostly Prison for the sheer power and versatility it represents in Modern and Casual formats. It has already had a tremendous year and I expect it to show up in every deck running Sigil of the Empty Throne and then some.

It plays a strong defense allowing you to buy time to get to your win condition. It makes attacking you problematic and swarming you impossible. Suddenly having twelve 1/1 goblin tokens from Empty the Warrens is not such a dangerous proposition.

This is another one I would try to trade for.

3. Disharmony
$6.24 to $4.99 (-20.0%)

This rare from Legends is on the restricted list. It is a powerful combat trick but otherwise unremarkable.

I think $5 is about right.

2. Silent-Blade Oni
$8.34 to $5.99 (-28.2%)

My outlook on the demon ninja is the same as it has long been. It likes to play ping pong between $5 and $9.

I would trade for it at $5 and trade it away at $9. This just may mean it is time to keep your eyes open for that $5 copy soon.

1. Lotus Petal (From the Vault: Exiled)
$40.0 to $28.49 (-28.8%)

There are a number of competitive Legacy decks that play a full four copies of this handy artifact.

If you are a Legacy player and have a fully foiled deck then you need these. They are the only way to get a premium Petal.

I would get in on these. I think they will be back to $40 and even $50 sooner rather than later. You will be glad you got your play set for around $100 when that happens.

Casual Fridays

The Cards You’ll be Sick of

May 2, 2014 Cliff Daigle 1 Comment

By: Cliff Daigle

Journey into Nyx has given us some very interesting cards to use in casual formats. Some of them will be niche cards at best, but others are going to see a lot of casual play even if their price isn’t very high.

I’m going to rate these based on what I’d do if I opened these at a Release Event, with the set still new and prices high.

Ajani, Mentor of Heroes

This cat does it all, unless you’re losing. His lack of board impact means NOTHING to the superfriends decks, the ones that play almost every Planeswalker and Doubling Season. (Except Tibalt. No one plays Tibalt.)

This Ajani not only completes the two-color combinations for Planeswalkers, he digs for those friends quite quickly. You’re going to sigh when he lands, because he’ll grab another annoying card almost immediately.

I don’t see this making a big splash in Cube, it’s a bit slow for that, but if you can get $25 in trade I’d make such a deal. A warning: as a mythic PW in a third set, he’s got a very real chance to spike hard during the next block. Better to take the sure thing, though.

Prophetic Flamespeaker

I admit I misread this card. I thought you’d be able to cast it without paying the mana cost. Instead, we get the pseudo-draw of Chandra, Pyromaster. In the next year, in Standard and in casual games, you’re going to have to correct someone how it works far more than you want to.

Even with that, it’s a card with both double strike and trample, a combination that has only been on Dragon Tyrant so far. (Someone forgot Greater Morphling. -ed.) Any equipment, any pump spell, and this guy is ready to set the world on fire.

Kruphix, God of Horizons

For all sorts of reasons, this is going to be a popular card in casual games. Fun color pair, enables big spells, no maximum hand size…and indestructible on top of that. At first I thought it was lame that the mana became colorless, but then I realized that if the mana kept its color, you’d need many colors of dice to keep track of what was still being saved.

Exiling enchantments has never been more necessary in EDH games, for this God and its kin.

Worst Fears

I understand why this needs to exile itself after use. I’ve seen Mindslaver/Academy Ruin locks and Wizards wanted to avoid adding another one of those. I do like the point-and-click nature of this spell: No warning, no chance to get Krosan Grip-ed before use…just take their turn. Done.

I think this is going to be the card that keeps its price higher than expected for a while, like Primeval Bounty in M14.

Dictate of Erebos

Grave Pact is a little rough on the mana with triple black, and others can see it coming. Giving it flash means that the surprise value is going to be very, very high. Having some iconic art (especially in foil!) doesn’t hurt at all. I don’t think this is going to be a Standard player, but it will be a mainstay of kitchen table Magic for quite some time.

What to Grab

I told you last week to trade everything you open, but at certain prices, there are things I’d try to trade for this week in the release event (All prices as of Wednesday):

Mana Confluence at $15 – I will be surprised if the big MC goes below $15 for its time in Standard. The foils are at an appropriately ridiculous price, indicating the appeal of this card in casual/pimp formats. I’d be happy to pick these up at $15 in value, because it won’t go below that for very long, if at all.

Temples at $6 – The two temples of Journey into Nyx are going to be the rarer ones, as I’ve covered before. I think $6 is a great price point for lands that I’ll be trading away at $10 in the middle of the next block.

What to Ship

Godsend at $13: While the effect is neat and there’s a chance of Legacy play in the True-Name Nemesis matchup, it’s just too much mana. More likely this settles in around $7 for the casual crowd.

Prophetic Flamespeaker at $10: While I think you’ll see a lot of this card, it won’t hold this price for long. A spike is possible, since it’s a mythic, but the safer play is to get out now. If it hits $15 in a year, oh well. Look at something like Deadbridge Chant to see the other path it could take.

Good luck at your events!

Think Twice

The Importance of Organization

May 1, 2014 Camden Clark 1 Comment

By: Camden Clark

It has recently come to my attention how important organization and keeping records really is.

In an abstract sense, many of us would nod our heads and agree that, yes, organization is important. We should all be keeping records too. Few would argue with these seemingly logical standpoints. Many would say “this is basic.”

However, outside of the abstract, how are you really improving your organization to maximize the value you get out of this game?

Let us talk about organizing your cards.

Many of us have that box. That box is the one that has all of the excess cards we have obtained through the years. We rarely know the exact inventory of the cards we have in this box. We fail to keep track of the amount of rares we have in that box, the uncommons, the commons, or what set any of them are from.

That box could be holding a few Serum Visions or Spell Snares. The easiest thing to do to organize your cards is to go through it in phases.

The first phase involves combing your collection for rares and other money uncommons and commons. If you generally know the era of Magic where your cards come from you can print out a buylist from those sets and look through it before going through your cards.

You may be surprised how much value you pull out. There are lots of cards playable in Modern and Commander that are great to throw in your binder. Even common foils move well. I and many others in the MTGFinance community attest to how many Oblivion Rings they trade away to people who simply don’t want to buy a playset online.

Once you pull out the cards with value, you can organize them into a few different binders. Yes, this means you might be taking apart your current trade binder. Do not fret: this will get you more value in the end.

I like to have three binders:

One for the hottest standard cards. Shocklands, scrylands, and Standard playable cards galore. I generally try to trade into newer sets with this binder.
One for Modern/Legacy cards. Any kind of dual land, Modern and Legacy commons, uncommons, and rares all go here. Commons like Serum Visions trade surprisingly well and are not that difficult to obtain in trade.
One for Casual/Commander cards. This one is typically the bulkiest. There will be tons of foils, Commander staples, etc. that move out of this binder. Keeping this one stocked will net you massive gains from seemingly silly foils and trade you into cards that hold more weight. I might even say this pool of cards will trade the most.

It is easy to gauge who will want to go through which binder first. The guy who is asking you to play a multiplayer EDH game with his Zedruu deck is probably a good target for the Commander staples. Conversely, the guy who grinds PTQs could probably care less about your Sol Ring collection. These are all generalizations but making a good first impression with your first set of cards will make them want to go through the rest of your collection anyways. Having these three binders will allow you to be more organized and trade with a wider variety of people.

After you get through your binders, you should go back to the bulk commons, uncommons, and rares. You should now take out any rares and mythic rares. You can save these in a separate box for bulk at a later date or keep in a dusty old binder in case they spike. This is a good way to utilize MTGPrice’s collection tool. You can input all of the cards that you have in a junk binder and be able to see if any spiked recently. Needless to say, you could make a whole bunch of money. Going forward, if any of them spike, you will be able to see that too.

After you have a box of simply commons and uncommons, you should go through and sort it by format. Which ones are Standard legal? Which are Modern legal? Which are only Legacy legal? From here, it will be much easier to break them up into each set.

From that point, you can comb through to find an obscure card whenever or be better organized to sell bulk if you go to a major tournament.

To many of you this seems basic. Trust me: take a day to reorganize yourself. It is very worth it.

Now let’s talk about the other end of organization, taking inventory.

This is a quintessential part of speculation and should be paid attention to whenever dealing in cards. Generally the advice is: do what the card shops do.

You should know what quantity you are speculating in and how much you bought in for. You should also know how much you spent on shipping. I like to keep this in a spreadsheet.

The above is the absolute basics.

What are you doing with the above information? Other than being able to make an informed decision about when to sell, how does it help you in the future? Where do you learn about the bad decisions that you made and the good decisions that you made?

I’m a big fan of learning from our past experiences and using statistics to evaluate why things went correctly or poorly. A recent article caused me to think really hard about the essential elements of Magic speculation that many people gloss over. They look at the retail price but fail to see the overhead and other costs involved.

Thus, from the start, you should be evaluating how much the buylist/eBay price is going to have to rise before you make any money at all. You should do a gauge on shipping costs and factor that in to a spreadsheet.

In your spreadsheet or somewhere else you should also write a serious evaluation of why you bought in to this card and what trajectory you expect to see. I say this not to cause self-doubt but rather to evaluate the decision making calculus and thought process. We are not sterile computers, we have off days, we make mistakes. However, we can come closer to understanding everything that causes us to make our decisions. By gathering as much data as possible we can make better decisions in the future.

Thus your spreadsheet should have the following things:

The name of the card you are speculating in
The amount you bought
The lump sum price you paid to acquire all the cards
The lump sum of shipping you paid to acquire all the cards
Average out a total price per card including shipping

Then for the eventuality of selling

The shipping you will probably need to pay per card
A formula box that shows the price each card will need to reach to make any money

And finally you should include an explanation for why you bought the card.

I will be creating a template for a spreadsheet on google docs to share with you. If you are interested in getting this, follow me on twitter: http://twitter.com/CamdenClarkMTG

Spreadsheets are invaluable tools for keeping yourself sane-ask any accountant.

As a supplement to your own tracking, a great way to find out where the cards in your collection are at is the collections feature on MTGPrice. I use this one to find out where the price of all my cards are at and see how they compare to the price I need to be at. I really like seeing which cards have increased in value recently and you should too. That can be an invaluable way of not having to look up every card individually. When you are ready to sell, it’s quite easy.

Using Google Docs (Drive?) Spreadsheets and the MTGPrice tools in conjunction I have most of the information available to me that I need to trade. When I am at an event, I can pull up the spreadsheet of the cards I am speculating on and seeing if I can pick up any more copies at similar prices minus shipping.

I really like the spreadsheets for when I am watching coverage of major events as well. I can quickly plug in the expected prices of a card and find out how much it would have to go up in order to make any money at all.

Now that we have organization out of the way, I plan to create a Modern portfolio that answers a question I see all the time on /r/mtgfinance: “What should I invest one-hundred dollars into?” This portfolio will take the lessons from this article into account and document the picks I plan to make with such a small sum of money.

Thanks for reading. Does this portfolio idea sound interesting? What organization methods do you use? Respond in the comments.

MTGPrice Blog