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Casual Fridays

PROTRADER: Price Targets for Amonkhet

Oh do I love the beginning of a set. Prereleases are among the purest tournaments to me, because I don’t know the tricks, the angles, the basics of what to be afraid of. There’s synergies to explore and so much to experience!

I don’t like picking Standard cards when there’s a banning announcement coming so soon, but there’s already some stuff that I’ve noticed and want to trade for soon.

A couple of caveats: First of all, my standing advice remains good: Trade away everything you open at the prerelease, and trade for anything that isn’t in Amonkhet. There’s going to be a big loss in almost all the prices, and picking the one or two cards that go up from here isn’t worth it. Assume it’s all going to lose value, and trade accordingly.

Second, about the price drops: The value loss is going to be real and big and significant. I’m going to give you my price targets, the value that I’m hoping these fall to before I start picking them up in earnest. Panharmonicon never fell to the dollar rare I was hoping for, but Lifecrafter’s Bestiary is surely there.

I’m going to list the prices that we currently have for these cards, but with this still being in pre-order mode, these prices reflect what stores want to get for them.

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Casual Fridays

Amonkhet Accessories

I love this time of year so very much. We have a new set that we are all drooling over and eagerly brewing with. We are amazed at the cards that are seeing print and we are full of bad predictions about prices. (I’ll get to some of those next week.)

This week, though, I want to look at some cards that I think will have strong potential with the new cards, and hopefully these will gain in value when new decks get played and get some camera time.

Lupine Prototype + Hazoret the Fervent: Is this obvious? Sure. Both of them want the same thing but that’s what we are being pushed to. Embrace it. I don’t think that Noose Constrictor is going to grow in value, though it’s the logical partner for dumping your hand rapidly. Call the Bloodline is another contender, but the Prototype has the best growth potential because it’s a rare you can acquire for very little.

The foils are intriguing, because they are eight times the price of the nonfoil. That indicates to me that either there’s a very high casual demand for the card, or someone is stockpiling foils for future spikes. You can get in on this card for a ridiculously low price, so this is safe even if the combo doesn’t take off.

Anafenza, the Foremost + Rhonas the Indomitable: There’s a surprising number of cards that come pre-loaded with the right amount of power for Rhonas to be active, but this is one of my favorites, given the rise of Abzan in Modern. I’m aware that Anafenza has had some spikes and rises already, but of the cards I want to play with Rhonas, this is a strong one.

An honorable mention has to go to Greenwheel Liberator, as a card that can come down cheap and be big enough for Rhonas. It’s easy to find four-drops that match well with the green god, but early drops are just as important. This is another one that can bump up in price significantly, since it’s under fifty cents currently.

Bloodfury Militant + either of the above: I want to point out that this uncommon is great with both of the above cards. What’s truly special is the lack of sacrifice clause. If you cast this as the last card in your hand, then you’re golden! I want this card to be good, I really do. I’m going to be going after foils fairly aggressively after the first week or two that the set is out, because the value is real. Do I think it’s going to revolutionize a format? Not at all, but this is a lot of card and a lot of potential.

White Sun’s Zenith + Regal Caracal: This is a casual combo, but what a combo it is. The Zenith is a solid card, if a touch expensive to get started, but in Cat decks, it’s awesome and might get cast more than once. We have surprisingly few Cat lords, and giving a boost to size and lifelink at the same time is going to make a lot of Cat cards better.

The Zenith is a very cheap and very good card, and seeing it pick up in value seems like a reasonable thing. Get the card in the range of a quarter or thirty cents, and watch it hit a dollar or more. The foils already have a 10x multiplier, and I would be surprised if there was another foil printing anytime soon. Seeing this foil price double wouldn’t shock me at all.

Black Sun’s Zenith + Nest of Scarabs: Black Sun’s Zenith hasn’t had much of a bump yet even though it got some attention when this card was spoiled. There’s not much better than killing all of their creatures and then getting a swarm of your own, and this is a combo that’s going to have your Commander table both envious and angry.

It’s worth calling out Carnifex Demon and Midnight Banshee as dirt-cheap spec targets that could well spike if Nest of Scarabs becomes a build-around casual card. The Banshee is a true delight to combo together, as the Insect tokens are black and won’t get counters every turn.

Splendid Reclamation + the cycling duals: Yes, this card has already had a spike when these lands were spoiled. It’s not a huge bump, and I think that the card has some room to grow. The graveyard synergies are really strong in this new set, and this is one of the most powerful things you can do if set up properly. I also really like the casual potential of this card, so feel free to stock up.

 

Cliff is a high school teacher, father of two, and newfound Cube enthusiast. While Commander will always be his first love and greatest value engine, long-term foil investments are always going to be his stock-in-trade. He prefers to diversify over a wide range of cards, rather than overload on one, as a box full of Prophet of Kruphix can attest to.

Casual Fridays

PROTRADER: Invocation Predictions, part 2

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Last week, I went over my thoughts on the eventual prices of the new Invocations, and while we are missing the full complement of the Gods, the reprints are known and starting to be presold.

With a week that’s gone by, the preorder market is a little more stable. I’m going to use TCG’s prices, as that’s reflecting what people are currently paying for these cards.

Let’s take a look!

 

Daze – $2 nonfoil, $120 pack foil, $15 Eternal Masters foil, preorder $75: The good news for this card is that when people play this, they want the full playset. No messing around with three or less, and that’s part of why this is so high in price. The bad news is that it’s not good in Commander, and not every Cube wants a copy.

Prediction: My first blush is to say that this drops as low as $50, but it could go lower. Having an old border version to chase puts a definite ceiling on the card, but the price on the EMA foil is indicative that the demand isn’t all there.

 

Diabolic Intent – $19/$65/Preorder $40 – I’ll be honest, it’s tough to find a place where this sees a lot of play. It is powerful, and good in Commander, but that format has a whole lot of tutoring options available. This price is more reflective of the very low supply than the demand profile.

Prediction: I think this is perfect, actually. It’s right between the regular and the foil, the supply stays low, but there just aren’t a lot of people clamoring to have this. It might fall to $35, if it does fall.

 

Divert – $1.50/$20/Preorder $30: I didn’t even know this was a card, to be honest. Sure, it’s a single mana, but this is as conditional as can be. One spell with one target and they don’t have two mana available? It’s seeing a tiny amount of play in Legacy sideboards, but the drawbacks are real.

Prediction: I think this drops even farther, and will struggle to be more expensive than the pack foil. There just aren’t enough people who need this in a deck, and even then, they will only need one or two copies.

 

Entomb – $12-$20 nonfoil/$15-$52 foil/Preorder $50: Now this is a card. Thematically, it fits the block and the setting very well, and it’s played a lot. Reanimator is a strategy that’s tried and true in Legacy, Commander, and Cube, and all of those decks want this card. Ideally as a four-of, but that’s the nature of Commander. The tricky part, though, is that this has been printed in Eternal Masters and a Judge Foil and the Premium Deck Series. There’s a lot of copies out there already.

Prediction: I think this will fall, but not by too much. $35 is the point at which I’d want to be moving in, but I’m not certain about the demand it’ll face.

 

Force of Will – $80/$330/$465/Preorder $300:  Yep, we are now entering our third additional printing of this card. Original, judge foil, gorgeous Eternal Masters, and now this promo version. The good news is that this is one of the most prevalent cards in Legacy, some might say the defining card. The bad news is that this might have the farthest to fall.

Prediction: I think this will be the case study on how desirable the new frames are. The players who don’t want this one will sell out immediately, and others will snap it up. What I don’t see is people opening this and saying, “Oh sweet! I need three more to get started in Legacy!” I expect this card to lose $50 or more in value, bottoming out in the $250 range.

 

Loyal Retainers – $52 nonfoil/$22 foil/Preorder $33: This card has a tiny supply but not that many decks want to play it. Aluren likes it, and there are strategies that pop up using it, but the demand just isn’t very high.

Prediction: I think this stays in the $30 range for quite a while.

 

Maelstrom Pulse – $18/$34/Preorder: $45: This is a card that’s been a mythic and a reprint and a promo, but it’s lcimbed back into the nearly-$20 range because it’s seeing good amounts of play in Modern, and is a worthy card in almost any casual format. Universal answers are always good, but ones that have the potential to clean up a bunch of tokens or both Tarmogoyfs as going to stay in demand.

Prediction: It sees enough play and the supply is small enough that this price doesn’t drop far, if at all.

 

Mind Twist – $2 up to $400+ for Alpha versions/no foil printings/Preorder: $60: A haymaker of a card, and one that’s still banned in Legacy. With fast mana, this is a big swing of card advantage, though it can’t solve problems in play. This hasn’t been printed since 4th edition, and so this is the only foil version that can be found.

Prediction: I think being the only foil version bodes well for the card, but the severe lack of formats to play it in does not. If you’re into speculating, this might be a tasty target, as an unbanning in Legacy would cause a spike to double its current price, or maybe more. As it stands, though, I think this drops a little to the $50 range.

 

Pact of Negation – $37/$53/Preorder: $80: This card has a foil multiplier of less than two, indicating that people want it, and having the foil version isn’t important. Casual demand is not driving the foil price up in relation to the nonfoil, and that’s extremely relevant here. Pact sees a lot of Modern play, generally as a way to protect your combo on the turn you’re going to win.

Prediction: Given the prices already in play, this should fall by at least $20, and I wouldn’t be shocked to have it land in the $45 range.

 

Spell Pierce – $1/$6-$30/Preorder: $60: Before being in Modern Masters 2017, this was one of the more impressive foil multipliers out there. Spell Pierce sees a fair amount of Modern and Legacy play, and isn’t terrible in Cube, though it’s garbage in Commander. Having the Invocation be twice the Zendikar foil is far too high though.

Prediction: A price correction is already underway, frankly. The listed Market Price is $70, but copies are being listed for $55. I would expect this to end up in the $40 range.

 

Stifle – $5/$18-$54/Preorder: $45: There’s a lot of things this card can do, some of them very powerful, but still quite niche. Some Legacy decks use this offensively, mainly targeting fetchland activations, but it’s not Modern legal and I’d have a hard time running this in Commander.

Prediction: Since players have a choice between an old border foil, a Judge foil, and the Conspiracy foil, they are going to have to want this version above all else. It’s possible, but unlikely, and so I think this will drop just a bit, down to $35-$40.

 

Vindicate – $5-$7/$18-$54/Preorder: $45 – The demand for this is high in Commander decks that can run this, and occasionally a Legacy deck will have it…but that’s all. This has been a Judge foil twice, and again, it has an old border foil that’s generally preferable to this new blocky frame.

Prediction: The market is already trending down. Market price is listed as $48, but copies are available at $37 shipped and no one is biting. $30 is where I expect this to stop sliding.

 

Worship – $8/$35/Preorder: $40 – After its original printing, it’s had three core set printings to boost supply, which is good because this sees just enough play in Modern to be worth a few bucks. The foil multipliers are appropriate, even a little high, but I wouldn’t trust this to keep myself alive in Commander for long.

Prediction: It’s under the 7th edition foil and just above the others. I think this is a stable place to be.

 

Wrath of God – $5 for Revised up to $750 for Alpha/$8 FTV up to $120 for 7th Edition foil/Preorder: $55: There are now 23 different versions of this out there, counting the foils. Full-art, FTV, original Beta borders, your choice of artwork. Having so many in circulation means that the demand for this card is going to be very telling, in terms of how many people want the Invocation specifically.

Prediction: The market price is correcting already, and while some sales happened at $55, the undercutting is starting. Copies are available at $45 shipped, and I think $30 is going to be the price by the time Hour of Devastation comes out.

Casual Fridays, ProTrader

Invocation Predictions (Part 1)

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The Masterpieces are here! In Amonkhet, they are known as Invocations this time around. I have some beef with some specific choices for this special set, but I see what their goal was. Wizards wanted to give us a 3-D effect and something that was visually very different, and they got that. I don’t like the unreadable card name, and I think there’s a lot of spell bubbles, but I’m not an art critic. I’m a casual player and someone addicted to foils, but this design doesn’t have to be for me.

Even if you don’t like the look of these cards, these are valuable. Even the least of these will be worth about the same as the most expensive mythic, barring the very unforeseen.

This week, I want to look at these current prices and see where they will probably end up, price-wise. The preorder price is an amalgamation, between some sites, and eBay sales aren’t up yet.

 

Aggravated Assault – Original: $12, Set foil: $28, Preorder: $30 – If you like this you’re going to pay a little bit more, and that makes sense. I don’t think the demand is very high for this card, though. It’s rare that you activate this more than once, even if you’re a Yidris, Maelstrom Wielder player. This card doubled when his deck was released and hasn’t been printed since Onslaught.

Prediction: I think $30 is a perfect price here. It’s on par with the set foil, which lots of people find appealing.

Attrition – $9, $40, Preorder $35 – I want to like this. I really do. Attrition works so well with a number of casual strategies (Meren, tokens, Karador) and this has potential. It’s popular enough that I think the price is going to creep upward but not a lot.

Prediction: At the end, it’ll be about $45.

 

Austere Command – $12, $35, Preorder $50 – Lorwyn and original Commander are the only printings, and I think this price reflects the appropriate demand and the semi-small supply. It’s not played outside Commander and Cube, but it’s nicely flexible and worth playing in most casual decks.

Prediction: This is going to fall to about the same price as the set foil. It’s not pretty enough to be worth upgrading to if you already have a foil.

 

Aven Mindcensor – $8, $53, Preorder $45 – We’ve had it spoiled that this is going to be a rare in Amonkhet, so that $8 isn’t going to last. It’s not widely played in Modern or Legacy, though it does pop up in sideboards. It needs to be said that the frame is going to play a big part, as those who like the Future Sight frame REALLY LOVE that frame and I don’t see the pack foil budging in price.

Prediction: The Invocation version will fall by a few bucks, but not terribly far.

 

Chain Lightning – $11, $3/$6 Eternal Masters, $6 for PDS foil, Preorder: $40 – This seems super duper and incredibly way off. This is played in one deck, Legacy Burn, and while it’s a four-of it’s not usually the market for these promo versions.

Prediction: This falls like a rock. It should drop down to the $20 range, which would be 3x the price of foils available. Ouch.

 

Consecrated Sphinx – $20, $60, Preorder: $50 – The card is bonkers insane in any format where it survives being cast and not being killed before the next draw step. There’s precious few cards that will get you attacked to death faster, and the single printing is why the price is so high.

Prediction: Against all my instincts, I think this is going to go up. It’s the only Sphinx so far in the Invocation set, and I think there will be enough casual players who want this to let it creep up by $10-$15 or so.

 

Containment Priest – $15, Preorder: $75 – This sees a small amount of play in Legacy and Vintage, and with no other choices for making unique versions of the card, I’m expecting big things out of this foil. That said, this is a 5x multiplier, and I think that’s just too high.

Prediction: This ends up at $50-$60, there’s just not enough demand, even though its only printing was a Commander precon three years ago.

 

Counterbalance – $20, $115, Preorder: $65 – This is in demand because of the power it offers in formats where Sensei’s Divining Top is legal. I rarely see this in Commander, and its power in Cube is debatable. A foil multiplier of 6 is fascinating, though, and speaks to the income and the four-of nature of this card.

Prediction: I think this has room to fall. The pack foil is far superior in appearance, but those who want this will be few and far between. I expect this to land at $40-$50.

 

Counterspell – $1-$175 for nonfoils, $6-$32 for foils, Preorder: $60 – The Invocation version is the 25th entry we will have for this card, including the foil versions. You have a wide variety of art to choose from, and can go all the way back to being an Alpha rare. You can choose an FNM promo, or a Judge Foil, or a selection of special printings.

Prediction: I think this falls to $40 or under. Yes, Commanders and Cubes play this, but there’s rarer and older versions to chase.

 

Cryptic Command – $26-$30, $35-$110 foil, Preorder: $90 – The Lorwyn foil is way up there as the original foil, but the Modern Masters foils are intriguingly cheap. This is a great and powerful and often-played card, so I think it’ll have a premium.

Prediction: This version of the card will be bought in playsets, and supply will never have a chance to get too big. This will settle in the $75 range, bridging the gaps nicely.

 

Dark Ritual – $0.50-$80, $4-$53 foil, Preorder: $50 – I shouldn’t need to tell you that this is either a four-of or not played at all. You’re either desperate for the mana or you pay full price. I do love versions where this has the card type ‘Mana Source’ though.

Prediction: Those who want this will also be buying the full playset, but there are so few of those decks. The demand is low, as evidenced by the complete disregard by the market for the FTV version, so I think this will fall to about $30-$35.
Next week I’ll come back with the rest. Stay tuned!