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Casual Fridays

Revolting Developments

The Pro Tour is in the books, and we’ve got a very clear idea of what the metagame is: Mardu Vehicles.

Doesn’t matter that Smuggler’s Copter got the ban, it’s shifted to Heart of Kiraan and Aethersphere Harvester. We had a sprinkle of Cultivator’s Caravan as well, and lots and lots of Veteran Motorist with which to power them up.

If we’ve learned nothing else, it’s that when Wizards puts together a new card type, it’s often overpowered at first. We will keep that in mind when the next new type arrives.

But what’s good against this deck? It was built to prey on the assorted Copy Cat lists, and I approve of the metagame call. The combo is real and powerful and demands answers or you lose. The Vehicles list seeks to overpower the opponent before the combo can get online, or disrupt the combo in progress. One red mana, left open, is enough to make the Saheeli player hesitate until they have Dispel backup.

And if they hesitate on turn four, then you’re stomping face on turn five. The deck is capable of some very powerful and synergistic plays, and there’s some opportunity here.

I think Chandra, Torch of Defiance, is a good pickup at $20 or so. We’ve got another 18 months of her being Standard legal, and she’s undoubtedly powerful. If you’re burning a blocker out of the way, they have to do something to kill her, which means you’re ahead on cards or attackers.

She might not rise too high, though, looking at Gideon, Ally of Zendkiar‘s chart. He spiked sometimes, but he never stayed high for long.

I also love picking up Release the Gremlins. Vehicles are going to be a big part of the metagame for a while, and at worst this is Manic Vandal, a two-for-one. Foils are also a little more than a dollar and might really pay off in the future. I’ve already targeted these in trade.

I’m impressed at the resiliency of Rishkar, Peema Renegade. I really thought this would be dropping in price by now, and instead it’s creeping upward. If it’s $5 or so when Modern Masters 2017 comes out, down a dollar from right now, then it’s a great candidate to be pushing $10 in ten months. It’s too good at acceleration to stay low.

Toolcraft Exemplar is another card that I’m high on right now. He’s cheap at about a buck and a half, and what he offers is quite powerful. If Vehicles stays a powerful deck–and I see no reason why it wouldn’t–then this little one-drop gets in early and crews anything late. I am big on the potential here, if the deck stays good then this is the card you want at the beginning. He’s good friends with Heart of Kiraan too, attacking for three because of it and helping it attack on any other turn.

My last pick this week feels like easy money: Spire of Industry. It’s in more than one type of deck, it’s played in a lot of styles and there’s more than one played per deck. It might be one of the best lands with how common artifacts are, and I think it’s going to see a lot of play going forward.

Foils are an even better pick, since there’s at least two decks that immediately want it: Affinity and Lantern Control. Get your foils for about $12, and be ready for them to hit $20 before you know it.

Casual Fridays

The Grand Plan

For those of you who are experienced at the ebb and flow of Magic, today’s plan is not going to be a shock to you. What I’m doing is old hat and a plan that has served me well so far, and I haven’t seen a reason to change yet.

For those of you who are more new to the game, and the idea of how drastically values can change for a card, prepare for some sage advice. Even though the Pro Tour is underway, and you should stay tuned for cards that bust the format open, that’s a skill I don’t have. Today’s plan, though, has worked for me over and over.

Aether Revolt has some really powerful yet really cheap cards. This is good for us who seek to accrue value while cards are inexpensive, back to the original profit idea of “buy low, sell high.”

We are going to do a lot of buying low and hopefully a lot of selling high, but instead of lots of cards, I’ve got a timeline in mind.

Aether Revolt is the current set for drafting and events, but on March 15, Modern Masters 2017 will arrive.  Then on April 22, we have the prerelease for Amonkhet! This is a lot going on in a very short time, and represents some real opportunities.

The cheapest point for a set is right after the following set comes out. So for Aether Revolt, I want to be picking up cards about March 22. I want to be getting Modern Masters 2017 cards around the beginning of May.

I especially want to be getting the cards that have long-term appeal, not just the Standard powerhouses. I would so much rather buy 17 Lifecrafter’s Bestiary right now than one Walking Ballista, for instance.

The pattern of Standard has been one of consistency for the best cards. Let’s look at the headliner for Battle for Zendikar: big ol’ Gids.

He’s dipped down to $20 from time to time but he’s stayed in the $20-$30 range pretty consistently, and I expect the same out of something like the Ballista. It might go down to $10, it might creep up to $20, but nothing too crazy.

Unless Doubling Season gets reprinted in Standard. Then watch out.

I really love a lot of Aether Revolt for long-term holds. Regular and foil copies of the Bestiary, because the card is just amazingly powerful if you can live through the turn you cast it.

Whir of Invention is really intriguing to me, as a card that could be broken in the right deck. The comparison to Chord of Calling is a good one, because the deck that wants Whir will want four of them, and that’s a trait I truly love in my speculative picks.

Aethersphere Harvester is a fairer Smuggler’s Copter, but this demonstrates how good looting is compared to gaining life. I think Rishkar, Peema Renegade plus Winding Constrictor is a turn-two into turn-three that a lot of decks won’t be ready for, especially when something costing six lands on turn four.

I don’t know much about the cards in Modern Masters 2017, but the principle still applies. Conspiracy: Take the Crown lowered prices remarkably, and now a lot of those cards have enjoyed a bump. I want to plan on grabbing cards at their low point, though I need to think more about the actual cards. The 2013 edition of Modern Masters had a lot of amazing cards, but the 2015 was less valuable and more widely distributed. So we will see.

That’s my plan. It’s what I’m going to be trying to accomplish, and I love having targets and ideas clearly drawn. Buy low, sell high, but do that about once a month these days!

Casual Fridays

Grand Prix Preparations

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I’ve been planning for Grand Prix San Jose for about two months.

I have registered for the main event, I have arranged for a place to crash, I have made sure that the kids will be okay while I’m off drowning in Magic cards and events for a whole weekend.

There are some concrete, direct things you should do as part of the big event experience, and I’m here to share a few tips and tricks for what will make the event best for you.

#1: Sell Early!

I’ve got a box of cards that I’m going to buylist, mostly commons and uncommons from a collection I bought in December. Guy came into the shop with two boxes of loose cards asking $20, I snap bought, and got to work picking. (Luckily, I was in the midst of writing up older sets’ pickable commons and uncommons in my PucaPicks series on Thursdays, available to Protraders, so picking was quick for me.) I’ve also got a bunch of Commander 2011 cards that I’m ready to sell, and when I get to the event I’ll know if I want cash from a vendor or store credit, depending on what they have at what prices.

I’ve found that when bringing a lot of things to sell, I want to do that early in the weekend, when vendors have more cash and more time. I’ll have it sorted, unsleeved, and ready to work quickly. This isn’t #mtgblueprint stuff, just a general note about when to sell large amounts of cards.

Individual cards are different, and can be sold whenever. I’d sure be cashing out on Walking Ballista ASAP though.

#2: Pack Lightly!

I’m going to bring one, maybe two Commander decks, and one trade binder, and some sleeves for the main event. That’s it. I want to make sure that my bag isn’t overly full, and while I’d love to play a lot of Commander or Cube, there just won’t be time.

#3: Plan on the unique side events.

Selling a stack of cards is going to empower silly things for me, like Full-Box Sealed, an event which I was at first dismissive of but I have to admit that it sounds more and more awesome. Ridiculously overpowered Sealed, with the possibility of adding value to opening a single box? Sign me up.

Chaos drafts are appealing, or double-prize queues, Frontier events, or single-match drafts…the list goes on. Look at the event website and figure stuff out ahead of time.

I can Cube or Commander at other times, but this event has some stuff I can’t do at other times, and that’s the experience I want to maximize.

#4: Socialize as much or as little as you wish.

This one took me a while to figure out, because I didn’t notice what I was doing. If you can play events with friends, that’s really great and something you should do. Mainly, though, you should absolutely not take any time away from stuff you want to do in order to wait for someone, especially when dealing with food or breaks.

#5: Bring water, and pack food whenever possible.

Self-explanatory. Packing a sandwich and chips is pure value, both in terms of the money not spent at lunch and the time that is saved at the venue. Save your budget for breakfast, dinner, or cards instead.

#6: Sell your playmat, and don’t pick up extra life pads.

If I can get $5 or $10 for the mat at the event, I’ll usually take it. I realize that there’s the potential to make a few dollars more if I wait and eBay it, but unless the playmat is something special (truly awesome card, or double-sided, etc.) it’s not worth the hassle of storing the mat and carrying it around. I do the same thing with leftover cards. I keep rares and some uncommons, the commons I’ll leave for someone else that has the time, energy, and space to pack 5k boxes full of bulk commons. It’s just not worth it to me.

#7: Don’t over-plan!

I learned this lesson when planning vacations. If I plan on doing something every single day, then I won’t have time for appreciation or relaxation, and isn’t that the point? I want to leave time for variation in the things I want to do, or maybe I’m going to go on a tear in the Main Event and I won’t get to any of it. (Is the EV of two extra drafts on Sunday worth the stuff I’m missing out on? I hope to find out!)

Big events can be stressful, but they can be a lot of fun. If you are heading to the GP, use the hashtags and see who else pops up!

ProTrader

PROTRADER: PucaPicks for 1/26/2017

So, dear readers, there’s a big deal on PucaTrade that I want to address this week: Promoted Trades.

Here’s the official link and also worth a read is the FAQ.

What’s this mean for you, the dedicated PucaTrader? What’s it mean for the future of the site?

Read on, because there’s a lot to unpack and a lot to think about.

First of all, I want to address the first thing that comes to my mind. This is an official bounty. It’s exactly what people have been doing for some time, and if you’re already offering a bounty (as I am) then this might seem silly.

However, if you are one of the surprisingly many people who’s been stiffed on bounties, then this is a really big deal.

I asked around for stories of people who have been promised bounties but they were never sent, and there’s a surprisingly large number of such people. There’s a factor at play in that there’s many times more successful bounty trades (for instance, all the ones I’ve ever sent and all the ones I’ve ever paid) who I didn’t ask for, but I thought the numbers would be much lower.

That’s the kind of experience that will turn someone off from PucaTrade, or any similar site, super quickly. Official bounties, now called promotions, offer users exactly this experience, only now it’s enforceable and official.

Before, there was no way to get the points promised, it was all on the honor system. You could reassure yourself a little by sending messages back and forth, but in the end, it was about trust and some people got burned.

PucaTrade is based on a trust system, because you have to trust that this imaginary currency is worth something. Other people will want these points, we hope. We trust that PucaTrade won’t just shut down and take our points with it. Trampling that trust is something that can ruin not just one user, but everyone who that user talks to.

It’s also worth considering how this has already taken 661k points out of the system, and this is with a relatively small number of cards available as promotions. I’m looking forward to the implementation of promotions for at least all Masterpiece-series cards, past, present, and future. Taking points out of the system is what needs to happen, because right now, Pucapoints aren’t worth much.

I am just a little worried that they are doing this so piecemeal. They aren’t implementing this for all versions of a given card, just certain ones. While that’s annoying, it does provide them a data point for comparing how many people are using this system so far.

I confess that I don’t like the fee. I get why they are doing it–they are always on the lookout for ways to remove points from the system–but it’s a fee on top of a bounty that must be paid, effectively increasing the bounty that much more. I think that PucaTrade would be better if it untethered from actual finance sites and built its own algorithm for what a card is worth. They are just too slow to adapt sometimes, and that’s problematic for me.

I also don’t like when there is a gap between a card’s value in Pucapoints and full retail. Big gaps represent a disparity in knowledge, and that smacks of trading like a shark to me. PucaTrade is giving us a graph, but like most of their data, it’s an incomplete one.

So far, we have a chart of what’s been promoted and traded the most, and their data shows that the promoted versions are trading much more briskly than their un-promotable counterparts, but that’s not really a surprise. I really wish we had data on the quantities of the promoted cards traded before and after the feature went live–that’s the thing I really want to see people doing, is trading high-value cards that they weren’t willing to trade before.

Saheeli Rai is not a shock as the most-traded promoted card. She’s spiked, so people that got her cheap are ready to unload her at a premium, but she offers a two-card infinite combo in Standard, and it’s been a while since that was a thing. Lots of people that have her plus lots who want her is going to result in a lot of trades anyway. Thought-Knot Seer, Windswept Heath, and Darkslick Shores are less than half Saheeli’s trades of 27, but are the only other ones over ten since the feature went live.

I think that promoted trades are a great idea. I don’t like the bonus fee, but if it is for a card I REALLY WANT then I don’t mind. I want more data too, but I’ll take what I can get.

I also want to add my recent experiences with PucaTrade. I’ve been carrying a balance of about 20,000 points for a few months now, and reciprocal trades in Discord didn’t really make a dent in that, and also were annoying to try and hustle for. So I stopped all that, and instead I have been sending out a small trade every 2-3 days, and I’ve gotten a rush of random sends.

I think that the sending of cards out has kept me in the ‘active traders’ setting, which has helped my visibility. I also think that my stated bounties are part of the reason why, but I’ve been at these bounties since Thanksgiving with no effect. (I was offering 20% on all, 40% on foils, and 75% on Inventions.) I’m going to revise my bounties, since I’m getting shipped an Invention Platinum Angel, and I am pretty much drained dry at the moment.

Right now, it seems like they are pushing hard to reward people who are either new (New Traders being the default on sending) and Active Traders (People who keep points flowing) while not giving a lot of benefit to those who have built up a lot of points.

It’s quite worrisome that in order to get my value in PucaTrade, I had to send out more cards. The value of my points did not change, but what changed was my visibility–a trait which has me concerned. If the only way I can get the cards I want is to send out cards, how can I ever get out of the system?

Beyond that, though, it’s the meddling and the impact that have me thinking. This is interference. It takes deliberate effort to send a regular user a card. Imagine if the default setting was to send to Gold members, and you had to choose to send to Silver or non-paying members.

I like promoted trades, to review, but I would love to hear from other people on the comments or on the forums. Can we replicate my experience? If you’re sitting on a significant amount of points, start sending a card every other day or so and let’s see if we can duplicate what happened to me.

Oh, and if you’re at GP San Jose this weekend, find me on Twitter (@wordofcommander ) and let’s play some games and make some trades!

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