Tag Archives: cliff daigle

Uncategorized

PROTRADER: PucaPicks for 11/3/16

1 Comment

So Commander 2016 lands in a week, and maybe some of you are checking your big box stores early. It’s not unheard of for them to stock these a day or two ahead of schedule.

This week I want to look at the listed prices and see where I can either buy low or sell high, even though you can’t quite get your hands on these yet, I like to plan ahead.

I want to be clear that if you can buy the decks on the first day, and then move out the singles, I don’t think that’s a winning play…mostly. The postage rate is going to be pretty high, unless you’ve got a great source for stamps, or you know someone who wants most of a deck.

That being said, these decks have a ton of value, and a lot of potential. Some people, who get stamps through work or some such, are going to really turn their $30 msrp into an easy 6000 points, but I just don’t have the time for that. If you do, more power to you. I’m properly envious of those who have the stamps and the spare time.

On to the cards!

The rest of this content is only visible to ProTrader members.

To learn how ProTrader can benefit YOU, click here to watch our short video.

expensive cards

ProTrader: Magic doesn’t have to be expensive.

Casual Fridays

Early Commander 2016 Results!

I have been really hoping for awesome things from Commander 2016, and frankly, it’s not disappointing. I love how Wizards has identified this niche and gives us all sorts of fun toys to play with.

What I’m really looking for is how much I’m willing to spend on singles. Until I have a decklist, I don’t know what I’m buying and I’m not willing to spend $30 on a deck and send out $35 worth of PucaPoints. Postage will eat up my margins.

I’m also nervous about knowing how many of each card is going to be printed. The markings of Mythic, Rare, Uncommon and Common don’t mean much when they are printed in equal numbers. I need to know if some of these are in multiple decks! I doubt it, but I’m not assuming anything.

To be clear, I doubt that much from this set is going to have a high price anytime soon. Commander 2015’s big winner is Mystic Confluence at $9. The 2014 version has multiple cards over $10, but the biggest is a reprint: Wurmcoil Engine. Even True-Name Nemesis, the headliner of Commander 2013, is only $14.

There are two things I want to be aware of: The prices that will fall, and the prices that will eventually rise.

Most of the cards in this set are going to fall in price, and fall hard. Others are going to trail off, after an initial burst. So what’s going to be the Blade of Selves?

blade freyalise

I liked picking up the Blade when it was a little over $10, but we have gotten to a point that after a year, people who wanted them immediately got them, and then those who sort of wanted it got theirs, and now we are at the lowest demand.

So the most expensive cards in this set are going to drop in price unless something gooses the price, which is usually Legacy demand. Containment Priest hit $50 for one weekend. True-Name Nemesis caused Wizards to adjust how many of which deck they printed.

Patience can pay off, though, if you’re willing to think in longer terms. Here’s Freyalise, Llanowar’s Fury.

freyalise

She hasn’t gone up enormously yet, but she’s crept upward, a trend that I want to be aware of.

The individual legends are going to be pretty solidly average in price. You’re going to see a lot of them that are between $3 and $7, and I don’t think that any of the ones spoiled are going to light up the Commander world. Perhaps I just can’t pick out the Meren of Clan Nel Toth, or the Nekusar, the Mindrazer out of this batch?

With this in mind, let’s look at some spoilers!

Deepglow Skate – So far, this is the card that I think is going to gain the most value right away, partially because it’s a single color (and not green for this effect!) and partially because it’s downright amazing. I am in love with this card and it’s going to go into a range of decks. If this is only in the non-red deck, then it’s going to immediately jump and decline over time. This will definitely be a long-term pickup for me.

Prismatic Geoscope – Look, we know Gilded Lotus is a good card. It’s worth considering as a first pick in a Cube, and this card is potentially better. It’s a big drawback that it enters tapped, but the potential to tap for four or five mana for only costing five, that’s a big, big jump for the mana-hungry five color decks. There’s a good chance that this is in more than one of the 2016 decks, and if it is, it’ll have a hard time keeping its price.

Vial Smasher the Fierce – While I don’t know how good this is going to be in Commander four-player games, I’m awfully intrigued by how good it might be in Legacy decks. Adding damage to the first spell a turn is tempting indeed, though I might be dreaming. Likely stays under $3.

Conqueror’s Flail – I love what this offers me, a way for a creature-heavy deck to resist really annoying cards like Cyclonic Rift or Batwing Brume. I suspect this will be a popular card but not world-shattering, and have a relatively low price. It’s solid, being +2/+2 or more for a mere two to play and two to equip, but the way it prevents interaction is the real selling point. Solid in the long-term.

Faerie Artisans – Oh this card. I want to be all over this card and sing its praises to the heavens, but the truth of the matter is that when it’s in play, your opponents will almost never play their awesome creatures with amazing enters-the-battlefield effects. It’s a rattlesnake of a card, warning them off and probably not doing much. If you are into slowing the game down this might be more your style, but this will never be expensive.

Ludevic, Necro-Alchemist – I like this as a sort of fixed Sygg, River Cutthroat, but this is another one that is really intriguing when there’s less players. It can’t draw you cards at the same rate Sygg can, but the way it pays people off for attacking each other is like a lightweight Edric, Spymaster of Trest. Still, he will probably stay super cheap.

Uncategorized

PROTRADER: PucaPicks for 10/27/16

3 Comments

So here we are, a few weeks into this format, and it’s time to start looking at what’s a buy and what’s a sell. A lot of cards have hit a bottom, and a lot of other cards are still overpriced compared to how many more there are to be opened.

This week, I want to dive into Kaladesh and see what’s worth getting and what I think you should send away as soon as you crack it.

The rest of this content is only visible to ProTrader members.

To learn how ProTrader can benefit YOU, click here to watch our short video.

expensive cards

ProTrader: Magic doesn’t have to be expensive.

Casual Fridays, Uncategorized

What does it mean?

3 Comments

So in case you missed it, we are back to one rotation a year, and that rotation will be in the fall, just as it used to be. But what does it mean? What cards and strategies are impacted? Should I buy now? Should I hold?

Well, it’s actually not that earth-shattering an announcement, considering that the old model didn’t have very long to take root. I freely admit that I don’t play a lot of Standard, so this decision was likely a reflection of conversations with R&D, vendors, distributors, local stores, and of course players. I don’t feel the need to parse the words of the announcement, but I do respect that they are listening to concerns and acting when they can.

A longer rotation means, for us, a return to what many of us consider ‘normal’ cycles with regard to the prices of cards. I have been watching Gideon, Ally of Zendikar for some time, and considering that a bellwether for what good cards should be expected to do financially. In this case, and in a lot of cases, cards aren’t spiking due to Standard demand. Cards were setting a price early and trickling downward, at different rates depending on how much it’s played.

Before the change, there was a point about one year after release when some middling to great cards would spike nicely. My favorite example from recent times was Hero’s Downfall.

downfall

Mmmm. Pure, undiluted value. That spike at the rise of Mono-Black Devotion. One of the things I love doing is hunting for the value that will be, and lots of us write about it.

With the 18-month schedule, it’s very difficult for that spike to happen. Cards are going to rotate out so soon, there wasn’t much time to enjoy your deck, especially for cards released in the second set.

Let’s look at Kozilek’s Return.

return

The power of the card, the need for a four-of, and that it was a mythic in a small set, all contributed to the gain in value, but I don’t think it went as high as it could have, because people knew they were getting a card just for the next few months.

Now, if you pick up some Gideons or Returns, you’re going to be able to play them until next October, making it a lot more palatable to drop the money on a playset.

Gideon is one example, and Return seems likely to pick up a couple bucks, but those aren’t going to grow a lot. I also think that while Liliana, the Last Hope is really well positioned against the swarm of aggressive and tiny creatures in Standard, being at $45 doesn’t leave much area for growth.

Ob Nixilis, Reignited – $4.90 – I know he’s an easily available foil in the Duel Deck that dropped in September, but this is a very cheap price for a strong mythic planeswalker. He does everything a control deck wants, and at worst, he’ll replace himself immediately before getting answered. Being in the Duel Deck is going to seriously cap his value, but cheap planeswalkers are always a solid investment.

Quarantine Field – $1.13 – It’s a bad deal at four mana, but good at six and game-breaking at eight. A dollar mythic is always going to get my attention, though I think Fragmentize puts a top on how high this can go.

Goblin Dark-Dwellers – $1.17 – This was the buy-a-box promotional card so there’s more of them, but this is a card good enough to show up in Modern. I’m a big fan of cards with nowhere to go but up, and we just got a good lesson in how good replaying spells can be, thanks to Torrential Gearhulk. Having flash makes the Gearhulk better, but I like this at a buck.

Oath of Nissa – $2.50 – It’s a rare from a small set that gets played as a four-of. I like getting these and waiting for them to go up to the $4-$5 range.

Cryptolith Rite – $1.37 – Have we forgotten how good these swarm decks can be? This is a real enabler of a card that has good potential to spike.

Declaration in Stone – $5.39 – An excellent candidate to go up now that it’s legal for six more months. If Prized Amalgam decks go up as well, then this or Descend upon the Sinful will really spike.

Ishkanah, Grafwidow – $8.41 – This is a very powerful card, and mythics from this set stand to do very well with the extra time in Standard. I’d look for this to spike by $5 or more when it hits big.

Tamiyo, Field Researcher – $11.41 – There’s two other mythics from this set that are $20+ and all it’s going to take is one good set of results at an SCG open or a GP for this to spike. The supply is rather low (remember, this lost time being drafted due to Conspiracy: Take the Crown) and this could easily be the third card to hit that price.