Tag Archives: EDH finance

The Rising Tide’s First Wave

Readers,

You knew I was going to address the Commander 2015 spoilers. With a lot of spoilers condensed into a few weeks, I’m going to have to basically address every card I can each week, since there is a lot to go over in a short time.

I’m potentially going to mention cards I’ve mentioned before in previous articles, but unlike previous articles, which highlighted archetypes that could emerge, these predictions are predicated on actual spoiled cards and there’s likely to be a lot more pressure on the cards due to the impending printing of new stuff.

I am going to talk exclusively about the five legendary creatures spoiled today, because all of them have the potential to launch new archetypes or replace older cards within their particular archetypes, and I think they will have the most profound effect on prices. This will be less in-depth  than the other articles about these color combinations, but while those were speculative based on the abilities typically given to cards in those combinations, this is predicated on the actual, spoiled cards. There’s a lot to go over, so let’s get down to it.

Daxos the Returned

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Potentially the best card spoiled so far with experience counters, this guy can get out of control very quickly. I have talked about enchantment-based decks before, with creatures like Heliod at the helm, but this guy is perfect. Are there cards we’re going to want to jam in a deck with Daxos as the commander?

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This seems like a shoo-in. Before, I discussed how good this was with a commander like Heliod, and while that meant this was likely to experience some growth eventually, I think Daxos as a commander is going to put pressure on this card right away. Every time you make another enchantment creature with Daxos’s ability, this taps for more mana. That alone is stupid. Using a ton of mana to pump out more tokens means you get out of control quickly. Black and white are great colors for enchantments as it is, and Theros block gave us a ton of exciting permanents that are enchantments in addition to their other types. Spear of Heliod is a great way to give yourself an experience counter then buff the creatures you throw out with Daxos.

Serra’s Sanctum itself is just dumb. While it doesn’t get the love in Legacy that Gaea’s Cradle does, this is just as good in some EDH decks and everything that made Cradle seem like a solid investment applies here. This card is on the Reserved List, and unlike Gaea’s Cradle which had extra copies due to the premium printing, all we have are regular Sanctums. This is a $30 card that could easily hit $50 and is never going to be bad in EDH or get reprinted. This seems like a no-brainer to me. The odds of this being in the Commander 2015 precon are zero percent.

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This is just going to shrug off reprints for days. With five printings and a nearly $10 price tag, this is an EDH staple. This s a very, very good card and it is very good in a deck like Daxos. Drawing cards is never bad, losing a life isn’t too arduous in a 40-life format, and playing this to give yourself an experience counter feels great to me. I don’t think this will go down a ton for very long if it is in the Daxos deck because it’s so ubiquitous in EDH, the price is trending upward, and we could see the Wurmcoil effect we saw with the mono-red deck from last time repeated here. I would call the odds this is in the precon less than 25 percent, and I don’t even think the reprinting would be that bad. If it is reprinted and the price tanks, buy these at its price floor. It absolutely will recover.

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This is very expensive and is only getting expensiver. If you’re not inclined to shell out $15 for a card with growth this flat, just remember this is going to get a boost from people building around Daxos. If this isn’t in the deck, and I don’t think it will be, the price has upward pressure. A reprinting would be brutal, but I think it’s a less than 35-percent chance. I would buy any copies I want for personal use now before the price goes up with  65-percent confidence. There is no pressure to reprint this for Modern, and it’s pretty expensive to jam in the precon. A card that soaks up that much of the value should really make the deck win, and this doesn’t help the precon beat other precons. If you buy one for your deck, buy two and put one in a box.

Also watch: Debtors’ Knell, Necropotence, Painful Quandary, Humility, Black Market, Land Tax.

Mizzix of the Izmagnus

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This card is basically what I imagined it would be, although it has an interesting caveat that I hadn’t anticipated. I knew just straight, “When you cast an instant or sorcery, get an experience counter,” would be too good and they got around that nicely by forcing you to play bigger and bigger spells to keep getting the cost reduction. Luckily, there are some great spells for that in Izzet.

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At $1.50 in foil, this is great in the deck but not super relevant financially. Still, I like how this plays with the new commander. You won’t lose money if it’s reprinted in the deck, and if you buy the foils you won’t gain a ton of money necessarily, either. Dealers aren’t super jazzed about this card—yet.

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At $9.50, this foil has upside from new decks and no downside from a potential reprinting. I don’t like the non-foils at $1.50 due to reprint risk and limited upside.

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This foil is pretty saucy under $3 also. There is real upside here and it won’t be reprinted in foil.

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This guy is to Storm as Animar is to morph decks and Mind’s Desire is going to get bugnutty. At $12.50, the foils are a bit pricey and the non-foils at $1 suffer from a lack of upside and a somewhat decent reprint risk, but this card is going to go in a lot of the new Mizzix decks. Is Mizzix better than Melek is for storm? Hard to say. But X spells in general are going to be insane.

Also watch: Inexorable Tide, Blue Sun’s Zenith, Flash of Insight, Omniscience, Contagion Engine, Prosperity.

Mazirek, Kraul Death Priest

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It seems unlikely that the Golgari card that gives you experience counters will be better than this, but you never know. What I do know is that this card is stupid, especially with creatures that have persist plus sacrifice outlets. Two persist creatures and a sac outlet gets dumb, quickly. This card is dumb.

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You might want to build a Ghave deck just so you can put Mazirek in it and start cheating at Magic.

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Modern Masters made this card stop being $15. Mazirek could make it $15 again, but not this year. Still, this isn’t a $4 card anymore.

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Prossh and the printing of Dictate of Erebos brought this staple down from its all-time high of $14, but it could get up there again.

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This personal Fecundity is pretty good, but I don’t think it is at its bottom yet, nor do I think the non-foil can be pushed much.

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This personal Fecundity is a $6 foil and I think this deck gives it upside, and the fact that it’s uncommon means the non-foil is irrelevant.

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Skullbriar could get some upside as a deck as well as Ghave. Mazirek will be a fine commander but it can also bolster some older decks people may have forgotten about.

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Greater Good is unlikely to be in the deck, but a sacrifice outlet is essential, and this is one of the best ones you can buy. This price has been flat for a while, but it has demonstrated the ability to be more than it is now. Renewed interest in sacrificing things will shine a new light on this.

Watch also: Prossh, Skyraider of Kher, Dictate of Erebos, Miren, the Moaning Well.

Kaseto, Orochi Archmage

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I’m not super jazzed about this, as Ezuri is much better, but since this is in the deck, we’re likely to see snakes happen, so let’s look at any snakes that get better with this guy at the helm since EDH players love to build tribal.

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The Duel Deck printing pulled this card’s pants down. I’m not sure I think the upside from the potential snake tribal deck makes me want to pay $12.50 for the foil, but the risk of reprint there is lower. This is a snake I want to make unblockable or leave on defense with the ability to pump up at will.

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This is under $3 in foil and is absolutely going places. The non-foil could be in the deck but I like the foils.

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This card was going places already. You’re not buying in at the floor, but with a combination of new landfall cards and this card’s inherent unfairness with fetch lands, a new crop of which is in the hands of players and a new cycle of which is legal in Modern, this particular snake is gas.

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At under $3 in foil and close to bulk for a mythic, I don’t leave a single one of these in a binder if I can avoid it. This is a snake that makes smaller snakes. Seems fine.

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This gets a lot better when your commander can make it unblockable, and it’s cheap even in foil. If snake tribal is a thing, this is in the deck.

Also watch: Nature’s Will, Sasaya, Orochi Ascendant, Coat of Arms.

Ezuri, Claw of Progress

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Wow. I was hoping the Simic experience counter guy wouldn’t suck and this doesn’t. At all. It’s irresponsibly good. This makes too many cards good to even list.

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Can you get to five experience counters on Ezuri? What if you’re proliferating? I’d guess $5 for a foil Sage of Hours is going to seem very reasonable in a week.

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Hnnnnnnng. This is a bit of a nonbo if you’re trying to put more counters on your commander, but just be good at Magic and don’t sequence your cards terribly, and all of a sudden you can start dumping counters on Biomancer every turn and every creature you play is nuts.

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How good is this with Ezuri? Ugh. So good, that’s how.

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Yo, dawg, I hear you like triggers, so I made your triggers trigger your triggers. Imagine all the experience counters you will get playing this then something like Coiling Oracle. This is stupid. It’s stupid how much better Ezuri is than every other card they’ve spoiled.

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This is cheating. This is just absolute cheating. Mycoloth shrugged off a reprint and is headed for the stratosphere as it is and I can’t imagine a ridiculous commander like Ezuri doesn’t put a ton of upward pressure on this already decent price. This card is insane with Ezuri. I’m brewing a deck just by making a list of insane cards.

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I don’t know how much money you make buying this promo at $1, I just wanted to point out how insane this card is in an Ezuri deck. Jesus.

Also watch: Every hydra, Gilder Bairn, Doubling Season, Hardened Scales, Primal Vigor, Intruder AlarmCloudstone Curio, Inexorable Tide, Contagion Engine, Thrummingbird, basically every Simic card.

Why doesn’t this card say “non-token” so you can’t get 100 experience counters with a single Avenger of Zendikar? Why?

We’re seeing some pretty good cards and there are a lot of older cards identified here that I’m very confident about the upside on. A lot of decks are about to be built, and the cards in those decks that didn’t get reprinted have a lot of upside in their futures. Look what Nekusar did to wheel effects to see what kind of upside we’re talking about for the best cards in these decks. EDH is a serious price driver, and we’re about to see a lot of building going on.

I’m not super happy about getting EDH sealed product every year since it feels like too much to keep up with, but as long as I write for MTGPrice, I’m going to be on top of it and do the analysis so you don’t have to.

We’re going to get some new spoilers as the days go on, so check out MTGPrice for coverage and my weekly article series. Until next week!

The Boros Karloff Halloween Special

Screw boat puns.

This could have been a series where each individual article was a separate, autonomous entity, referable to the whole by way of hyperlinks but also each its own standalone concept piece. “Up your butt with that,” I said, “I want to put a bunch of stupid puns in the title so everyone knows the pieces relate to my overall series where I talk about how a rising tide will lift all boats.”

I don’t live my life by your rules, man. I don’t do what’s “popular” or “convenient” or what “makes sense.” I march to the tune of my own disc jockey, and I’m about to get all Skrillex up in this bitch with part five of a five-part series that the longer it goes on I’ve gotten less and less enthusiastic about relating to the rest of the articles I write about EDH finance . Have you hung in there the whole time? Did you read the other four parts? I feel like they were instructive and (I think) entertaining and worth reading. Feel free to catch up real fast or you’re going to wonder why I keep talking about Wurmcoil Engine.

Part 1 – Orzhoz

Part 2 – Golgari

Part 3 – Simic

Part 4 – Izzet

Here we are, folks. We’re at part five of five. The money shot. La fin du chemin. The culmination of my hard work and your even harder work tolerating my flippant writing style, heavy-handed metaphors, verbosity, and insistence I know the future. Don’t pretend you didn’t love every second of it, nerds. Will I do any better a job predicting what’s bound to happen this time around? I think I might. After all, we have four weeks’ experience writing this series, and we have a secret weapon. We have a spoiler.

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What does this tell us? Well, it tells us a lot. We used the fact that the rest of the decks would likely (and not even definitely!) get experience counter shenanigans to write some of the articles, do you think I won’t predicate a great deal of my predictions this time around on the fact that we know a card the deck will be built around? Don’t count on it. This is happening. First, let’s ignore this card to the extent that we should look at the trusty Magic wiki article we have thus far used to look at the unique color-pie attributes of the various enemy-color combinations.

Combat

What does that even mean?

Combat? Boros specializes in combat? Okay, well, I guess I could see that. We have cards like Insurrection and Master Warcraft. Cards like Ghostway and Legion’s Initiative, cards like Assault Strobe and Righteousness. This lame, generic descriptor becomes even less silly when you think about the fact that Boros’s new flagship commander is basically a big, dumb combat animal. We want him to attack and block, and he does both. Play big, dumb creatures to help him out and he gets even bigger, combating even more better. Sorry, I’m just so thrown by the no-help description of “combat” that I’m lapsing from typing like I’m Boros into typing like I’m Gruul.  “Gruul do smash good, so am Boros. Boros am Gruul smash friend. Trump 2016.”

What can we see being included that’s worth actual money and could help with… err… combat? I mentioned Master Warcraft, and while it’s my favorite Boros card for EDH that no one sees coming, it’s also a quarter right now, so it’s not worth caring about. Either it goes up to 50 cents over the next decade or it stays true bulk with a reprint. I feel the same way about Boros Battleshaper, a bulk rare that’s a shoo-in in the deck if I’m on the design team, as it triggers your commander and confuses combat. It’s the perfect card for this deck. It’s also a bulk rare. What can we actually make money from?

Remember EDHREC? This time, I looked at the cards used in a Narset deck for cards that could help us in combat, since Narset is doing that very well right now. Here’s what I found.

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This seems like a pretty good Wurmcoil candidate. Is it too unfair to be able to serve with a 6/6 double-striker ad nauseum or is this what EDH was designed for? This card is expensive because Narset is such a good Commander and a reprint could erase some feelbads. Other variants are possible as well.

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Look how Boros-y this card is. It’s even both colors. I wouldn’t hate this $6 monster getting its wings clipped a bit.

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Could this Narset-benefactor see a reprint or will its keyword ability be too confusing for an EDH crowd, keeping it out of the deck? Relentless Assault is easier to grok and has also been printed 133 times, making it not financially-relevant. I feel like Savage Beating is in the same category—does it get a reprint for flavor or does it get a miss because of the keyword ability? I feel like there will be exactly one card in this vein in the deck, and if you’re holding one that’s more than $3, it may be time to dump and pick up later, or replace with the cheaper version printed in the deck that you subsidized the purchase of by dumping Aggravated Assault at its current peak. Then again, if it isn’t reprinted, the Boros commander likely gives the card upside, meaning $11 isn’t the immediate ceiling. If you have sellers you trust to ship and quick reflexes, try to arbitrage a few bucks here at low risk, but I’m not doing any of that noise.

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Again, while there isn’t much precedent for a reprint like this, we did see Planechase‘s Baleful Strix in a subsequent Commander deck. This card doesn’t only trigger the commander, it also rules combat. I don’t know how likely this reprint is, especially with a keyword ability seen in only one other set, but I’m mentioning it because all of the other Boros creatures that deal with combat, like Angelic Arbiter and Blazing Archon, are dirt cheap. Even Silent Arbiter got a pansting in the same set that gave us Scourge of the Throne. So much Boros stuff dealing with combat is dirt cheap. Are we getting Orim’s Chant? Doubtful. Are we getting Master Warcraft? I’d bet money on it.

Weenies

Ugh. I realize Boros is very good at this, but the deck’s commander is almost set up as the exact opposite of how a weenie strategy wants to work. You don’t want to play weenies and Jor Kadeen and go wide, you want to play Gisela and Steel Hellkite to buff your general and go Voltron. I could talk about weenies stuff here, but we know that almost certainly makes no sense. The deck will be big, fat creatures for the most part, some buffs to make combat tricky, and maybe some equipment and auras.

Cards More Likely Than Weenies

I think it’s worth talking about cards I expect in the deck rather than stuff like Assemble the Legion and Shrine of Loyal Legions which, while good, don’t jive with the commander at all.

First up, let’s discuss some possible angels, since Wizards had a lot of chances to reprint angels recently and surprised people with some of the choices made.

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This card wasn’t reprinted in FTV Angels, and many think that was an oversight. While Aurelia would have been a fine inclusion in FTV Angels, this could be a chance for a reprint in the Wurmcoil slot to redeem Wizards for ignoring this card and its two angel sisters. Then again, is Wizards likely to print a card from a pseudo-cycle by itself? Exclusion from FTV Angels didn’t affect this card’s price, and with no pressure on it, you don’t stand to gain anything if it’s not reprinted, so a reprint is all downside if you’re holding. Is this too good with a double striker? Maybe.

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Based on the need to reprint Elesh Norn and the inclusion of a cycle of dragons in Modern Masters 2013, I predicted the praetors cycle would be in Modern Masters 2015. I was one-fifth correct with that prediction, which sucked, but it was based on sound logic and I feel good about the thought process. This card interacts well with the commander and isn’t as unfair as a card like Vorinclex, so it might be a good inclusion.

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This guy would be a good card in the Wurmcoil slot, along with maybe a card like Steelshaper’s Gift. This card isn’t as good in EDH as it is in Legacy, although equipping Batterskull to your commander, even with no experience counters, is likely very hard to stop for the other decks. I thought about Sword of War and Peace, but why include one sword and not the corresponding one in each deck? That makes no sense outside of Boros with no way to tutor in other colors. Would this have been too much in last year’s mono-white deck that also had Containment Priest, and does it make more sense, now? Sunforger was just reprinted, Jitte isn’t getting reprinted, Swords are a cycle and tough to reprint. This might make the deck ridiculous, but I don’t think that the Boros deck is getting a Legacy-caliber card.

Follow my logic here: last time, the two Legacy-tier cards were Containment Priest (slam dunk) and Dualcaster Mage (swing and a miss). Since there isn’t much good stuff to reprint in the Izzet deck, I expect the Izzet one to get a Legacy-caliber new card. I doubt all five decks will be equally stacked, since there is no precedent for that, so one or two other decks are likely to get a good, new card. I doubt both decks with red in them would get the Legacy card, so Izzet’s likelihood, in my mind,  diminishes Boros’s chances.

If we’re not trying to find a Wurmcoil-tier card,  we may be able to build a decent amount of value to make the deck attractive by getting there piecemeal.

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Here’s an equipment that’s more reasonable than Batterskull (a card I don’t think Wizards would jam in the Boros deck, necessarily) and could be cheaper and more plentiful than it is now for the good of the format.

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The “against” column includes the awkwardness of either printing half of a cycle or a tenth of it and its previous reprinting in Planechase. The “for” column mostly consists of “triggers commander” and “wouldn’t it be great?” I feel this could go either way.

But How About That Wurmcoil Candidate?

There are a lot of cards I didn’t even mention because they’re too inexpensive to matter, even though they’re super likely reprints (Boros Battleshaper, Foundry Champion, Angelic Skirmisher, Master Warcraft, Agrus Kos).

There were a lot of cards I didn’t mention because their mana costs made them awkward with the commander (Angel of Jubilation, Serra Ascendant [this card is also one that Wizards doesn’t like to acknowledge is only good because of EDH’s rules], Firemane Avenger, Grand Abolisher, Hero of Bladehold, Iroas, God of Victory).

Will there be a Wurmcoil-tier card in this mess? It’s possible. I can make a few guesses, though I don’t have a ton of confidence in any of them.

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This could go in any deck and should get reprinted eventually, but last set would have been better than this one, so I don’t really think it’s all that likely.

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I’m actually reasonably confident about this one.

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This actually does work in the deck, and since you’ve already lost 75 percent of your money if you bought at its peak, why not lose some more?

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Who doesn’t want discount fatties? This is on my EDH reprint wishlist, and it’s a bit flat for now, but I feel like it could go up soon. Not being on the Reserved List like its powerhouse counterparts like Covetous Dragon and Carnival Of Souls, this card is a serious tribal workhorse and could stand to be dusted off.

Final Thoughts

That basically concludes this series. While I’m not expecting all or even most of these fantasies to come true, I think it’s important to think about how the future will pan out as far as Commander 2015 is concerned. This is a good chance to give us new cards, reprint some old favorites, and get people playing EDH. We have had one or two decks fly off of the shelves every time, leaving the other decks to sell out more slowly. As spoilers come in, we may be able to figure out which one that may be this year, but I feel like each deck will have merit this time, and I plan to buy a personal copy of all five like always to tear into them and start building.

Feel free to point out anything I missed or argue for something I did include in the comments section. While I’m sad to be concluding this miniseries, I am looking forward to using next week to start brewing with spoiled cards and figuring out what could be on the rise in the future. Until then!

Making More Enemies

Welcome back to the articles series that tricks finance people into caring about EDH and tricks EDH people into caring about finance. I like the concept of “edutainment,” but I think I am beginning to like the concept of “eduception” better. It’s like that video “Donald Duck in Mathmagic Land”  where you realize after the fourth of fifth viewing—this is a great alternative to Fantasia while dropping acid, by the way (seriously, don’t drop acid and watch Fantasia. I can’t speak to the acid part, but I have watched Fantasia enough times to know that the experience will end with you in a padded cell)—that it was trying to teach you math. You just watched a math video, nerd. You’re a disgrace to that Pink Floyd T-shirt.

Last week, I talked a lot about what could happen when Wizards prints more Commander sealed product, and while a lot of it involves crushing $5ish cards into total powder, some of it involves, potentially, getting Wurmcoil Engine back, making it cheaper for a minute, selling a ton of product, and us not losing too much money on Wurmcoil Engine. It’s a great situation to be in.

Can we see other Wurmcoil-tier reprints? Maybe! Do I know what they are? No, but I can guess! Last week, I identified some cards in the appropriate price range that would get more copies in players’ hands, not tank the value a ton, and make the product attractive for years to come. Could every deck have something this good in it? Maybe. It really depends on a lot of factors, not all of which we can anticipate.

What I can do is warn people holding onto some cards that are likely to see a reprint while it’s not too late to dump them. If they don’t get reprinted, you can grab them for the same price later. Let’s talk about what could be in this year’s wave of enemy-colored Commander decks. My hope is that I’ll get through two colors today, because I won’t have to introduce the concept of the series like I did last week, but you know me. If I only get through Golgari today, this three-parter could turn into a five-parter, but I doubt anyone will complain because the only way that happens is if there is too much value in this installment. Let’s start demonstrating some of that value.

Golgari Stuff

Remember the wiki article I linked last week?  I’ll be using that as a guide for the potential themes of the deck. These are things Golgari does well and one or more is certain to be featured in a Commander deck.

Reclamation

Golgari is going to get stuff back from your graveyard. White does this okay, but since the days of Animate Dead and Regrowth, we’ve seen Golgari plant a flag in this territory.

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This is a card that honestly could shrug another reprinting off. How is this $10? The Duel Deck version is closer to $8, but that’s still absurd for a card with two reprintings. Duel Decks don’t always tank cards, of course, but this is a non-mythic in Modern Masters as well. This is great for a lot of graveyard-based strategies—letting your mana recover from greedy digging, letting you reuse lands like Ghost Quarter and Blighted Woodland (Wizards is not putting Strip Mine in a Commander precon) and jams more crap in your yard for later recovery. It’s a solid card, is at the right price point, and I regret not saving this for the end of the article. This was literally the first card I thought of.

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I made some money off of this card, so naturally, I love it. Standard players didn’t see it as the, “I’m playing Abrupt Decay literally every turn” engine I saw it as, comparing it instead to Staff of Nin, but Caleb Durward played one copy in his sideboard, which caused it hit $8 briefly, and I buylisted a hundred copies for three times what I paid for them. What a great weekend.

Anyway, this seems like the kind of card that, while it doesn’t need a reprint, could get one. Bulkish rares have been crushed into true bulk under the wheels of a precon with a theme before.

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This is another card that doesn’t care how many times you reprint it. The cheapest printing is still $7 and it could probably shrug some more off. The cool thing about reprints in precons and such is that the rarity doesn’t matter—it may have a silver expansion symbol but there are exactly as many Izzet vs. Golgari Eternal Witnesses as there are Life from the Loams.(Lives from the Loam? [Ed.: Nah]). A card originally printed at uncommon is still super hard to find when the copies get cleaned up as quickly as they do, and they’re not three times as abundant as rares in precons.  This isn’t as bad a candidate as it seems, and if it dips in the short term, it’s sure to recover.

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This is a card that it wouldn’t suck if Wizards reprinted. Expensive enough to be in the Wurmcoil sweet spot and ubiquitous enough to likely see its copies gobbled up, a reprint of this might not be too bad for the non-foil price and wouldn’t touch the set foil or judge foil. Still, I could see this card reprinted, in a new border without the tombstone by the name, sort of like the judge foil. I could see this in a Golgari Commander deck quite easily.

Exiling from the Graveyard

This is an ability we see in these colors, but I’m not sure there is a ton of money to be made predicting what we’ll see.

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Look at me, I’m Nostradamus, except I predict the obvious with pinpoint accuracy.

Perhaps there are real cards that would be affected, though.

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This could be shot down mid-recovery, and while there isn’t much precedent for a card from Commander precons being reprinted in Commander precons, this would at least be on-theme. Modern will want this card forever, Legacy will want this card forever, and even Commander will want this card forever. It’s not quite Wurmcoil-tier in terms of price, but it certainly does work, doesn’t it?

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Does this feel “wrong” to anyone else? I don’t know what it is about this mechanic. It seems too, I don’t know, proactive compared to much of the reactive graveyard hate that is a little more judicious and targeted. This seems like a card Wizards wouldn’t put in a precon. It’s too efficient and unreliable.

Still, the price is right and a Commander reprinting certainly hurts the upside of the non-foil a great deal. M11 hurt the foil significantly, but that sort of thing can happen. It seems unlikely we’ll see another reprinting in a real set, so the foils seem pretty safe. As much as I am not sure the precons will jam something like this, the possibility exists. If it did get the nod, the strong growth we’re seeing would be impacted severely.

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This has little or nothing to do with EDH, but this card is pretty good in Modern and even better in Legacy—especially Legacy. Even Vintage could benefit from a card like this. A free, surprise, Crypt against Dredge, especially in Vintage, seems effective.

How is this foil only a stinkin’ dollar? I am sure I’m overstating its playability or something. I don’t know how else to explain the discrepancy between  how good I think it is and how cheap it is. EDH players might like a card like Grave Consequences, also, but that’s only a quarter and is likely to stay there.

Regeneration

Not an exciting theme, but you don’t need to build around the theme to jam a few good cards with regeneration in the deck.

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You whippersnappers won’t remember this, but this card was $20 for one glorious weekend. I was opening these and trading them for two copies of Supreme Verdict, four copies of Detention Sphere—all kinds of insanity. That was back when people still traded in person, mind you. Crazy times we were living in. This was before the movie Frozen came out and it sucked to be a parent.

Nowadays, it hardly matters if this gets reprinted or not. There are better trolls, but this does more work in a Golgari deck that wants more than just a Cudgel Troll.

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This card used to buylist for next to nothing. Now it’s a real, actual card. It’s pushing into Wurmcoil territory and wouldn’t suck as a reprint. This card does work. While it “feels” a bit more Selesnya than Golgari, I think we can all agree this would be a welcome reprint. I’m not saying sell these, but I will say maybe wait to buy.

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This is a very, very specific card for a very specific set of circumstances, but Wizards has reprinted utility lands in Commander product before, and this is certainly itching for it. Wizards will need to find a way to reprint this soon or it’s going to continue to grow out of control. This is not just for rat decks, either, as it regenerates cards like Taurean Mauler and Mutavault. We’d need a strong rat or squirrel theme making this more of a wishlist reprint than a likely one, but this is a card I wouldn’t invest heavily in, as it’s likely to see reprinting in the future.

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This seems more likely. I feel like any day now, a Commander deck or some other manner of supplementary product will give us a reprint of the Hollow. This is a great utility land for a green EDH deck, and since green is the best color in EDH, this is a good candidate for a lot of decks. This has hovered around $10 to $12 for a while, and it has some upside if it escapes reprinting in this year’s Commander product, though how much upside I don’t know.

J/K. As Justin pointed out below, Hollow is on the Reserved List. And why not? It’s way better than Citanul Centaurs. I guess we’re stuck with Yavimaya Hollow at its current price and higher, which sucks, but with no real way to reprint this card, the sky is the limit.

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Thrun is a pretty narrow basket to put so many eggs in, but you can do worse than a very good creature if you’re looking for somewhere to stash the value from a set. I don’t see this as super likely, but this is a creature that regenerates and isn’t total bulk. It’s good enough in Modern and even fringe Legacy strategies that we could use an unobtrusive way to reprint it, but maybe the price is too high for that, now.

Permanent Destruction

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This is the card a lot of people think will be a shoo-in. I’m not so certain. While this certainly does work, I see it as similar to the “why put Vindicate in a precon when Mortify is almost as good at dealing with the stuff in the other precons?” argument I proposed last week. I’d like to see Maelstrom Pulse, and it certainly could use another printing, but I don’t like the odds.

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This reprinting wouldn’t upset too much, and with the Conspiracy printing already attenuating prices, this seems like a fine candidate. As long as we don’t get stupid Plague Boiler, I’ll be okay. I don’t think this is too good to reprint, and I don’t think it’s too expensive to reprint. Pernicious Deed isn’t what it used to be, and EDH certainly isn’t driving its price up much. This would be fine.

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A true EDH staple, this card has shrugged off multiple printings in Planechase and a Duel Deck. Its growth would be attenuated for sure, but likely would climb after a matter of months to a year, and getting more copies out there wouldn’t kill anyone. I see this as pretty likely, but which art would Wizards choose?

Elves

The wiki doesn’t say anything about this, but green-black could get some elves. This would be a decent place to jam a few elves to bring down the cost of some of the nuttier ones that haven’t gotten reprints lately. Which ones? I dunno.

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This is pretty much insanity. A reprinting would make it affordable and mean you don’t need to pay fetch-land prices for an uncommon mana dork. Obviously last year’s green Commander deck would have been a better venue, but this oversight can always be corrected. Will it? Likely it will, but not in the Commander deck. There are some elves I expect to see, though.

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This has already been crushed into powder, but sometimes Wizards reprints cards so they will be playable in the deck. This seems like a good choice. This is a card I could see being the commander if I weren’t so certain they’ll have a new card at the helm. This is a lot like Teysa in the Orzhov deck. Whether or not we need this financially, I think we’ll get it.

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This won’t have much financial impact, but this is a very Golgari card. I like this both at the helm of its own deck and in the 99 of decks like Prossh and Shattergang Brothers. This card does serious work and is a must-kill for opponents.

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Glissa is sneaking its way up to the $5 mark. I don’t know if it’s not too narrow to go in a precon, but if you jam a Mind Stone, a spellbomb, and a Sylvok Replica in there, you might see this do some work. It’s very Golgari and being able to fetch cards out of the ‘yard plays well with dredge. Who knows? This could be in there.

Wurmcoil-Tier Possibilities

Other than Genesis and Asceticism, which cards do I think have a decent shot at being the Wurmcoil of the Golgari deck, if there is one?

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Lord of Extinction may be one of the EDHiest cards ever. This is pure “big creatures do work,” and I love it. This gets huge, and when shot at someone’s dome with a Jarad, usually ends the game for that person. It’s just solid, will work in the EDH precon no matter what the theme is, and could use a reprint to bring the price down, though Wurmcoil shrugged its reprint off and this could, too, depending how popular the deck is. A sicko new card for Legacy is always a possibility.

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Maybe this is too cheap, but this seems on-flavor, at least. I could see this getting a reprinting soon, but I wouldn’t necessarily bet money on it.

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I know I said this could go in the Orzhov deck, but this would work in a Golgari deck as well, and everything I said last week about this card still applies.

Final Thoughts

Remember how I thought I might get through Golgari and Simic today? Yeah—not happening. I’m way over my word-count cap, and I don’t even care. You’re welcome for all of the value. Next week, we’ll tackle Simic, meaning I guess this is a five-parter now.

Argue with me, please. What did I omit or get wrong? Leave it in the commentses, you nasty readerses. Got any beef with my picks? Did I omit your favorite Golgari card? Will the Wurmcoil-tier card only be in one deck? Do you have predictions for Simic? Leave it all below. Until next week!

Is It Safe?

IsitSafe

This is the question everyone should be asking about their investments, both before and after they make them:

Is it safe?

Well? How do we make safe investments in EDH?

Okay, so I’m a few sentences in and I already hate my internal voice reading this article. You remember that episode of Seinfeld where George got the book on tape because he hated the sound of his own voice but had to read a book about risk, and then the guy on the book on tape sounded like him somehow, and I don’t remember how the episode ended because it was like 20 years ago, but I bet Jerry did something annoying and you should really just watch Curb Your Enthusiasm instead? I hate how my voice sounds reading that first paragraph.

Also, before I forget, I didn’t address the title of the article the way none of you were hoping I would. I think today I want to talk about the upcoming Commander sealed product, because it’s going to tank some prices and we want to be ready. Not only that—it’s going to tank prices in a pretty big way, and I think now is the time to buy or sell to get ahead of it. We have gone a full week without any spoilers and everyone is getting antsy. You know some tool is going to swipe a deck and spoil all of it or something like that pretty soon, so let’s get out ahead of that, shall we? EDH players are salivating, talking about the cards they want to get reprinted. Theirs is a Magical Christmasland list, but it’s not a bad idea to look at what they are thinking because staples are bound to take the biggest hit.

Here is what I would sell and what I think is probably safe.

Okay, false alarm. I think we would benefit by looking at how Wizards typically builds these decks by looking at a list from each “generation” of EDH sealed product.

Counterpunch from 2011

1 Barren Moor
1 Command Tower
1 Evolving Wilds
10 Forest
1 Golgari Rot Farm
1 Orzhov Basilica
8 Plains
1 Rupture Spire
1 Secluded Steppe
1 Selesnya Sanctuary
8 Swamp
1 Temple of the False God
1 Tranquil Thicket
1 Vivid Grove
1 Vivid Marsh
1 Vivid Meadow

1 Aquastrand Spider
1 Celestial Force
1 Chorus of the Conclave
1 Dark Hatchling
1 Deadly Recluse
1 Fertilid
1 Golgari Guildmage
1 Hornet Queen
1 Karador, Ghost Chieftain
1 Monk Realist
1 Nantuko Husk
1 Penumbra Spider
1 Sakura-Tribe Elder
1 Scavenging Ooze
1 Selesnya Evangel
1 Selesnya Guildmage
1 Shriekmaw
1 Sigil Captain
1 Spawnwrithe
1 Spike Feeder
1 Squallmonger
1 Symbiotic Wurm
1 Teneb, the Harvester
1 Vampire Nighthawk
1 Vish Kal, Blood Arbiter
1 Yavimaya Elder

1 Acorn Catapult
1 Afterlife
1 Alliance of Arms
1 Attrition
1 Aura Shards
1 Awakening Zone
1 Bestial Menace
1 Cobra Trap
1 Cultivate
1 Darksteel Ingot
1 Death Mutation
1 Doom Blade
1 Fists of Ironwood
1 Footbottom Feast
1 Golgari Signet
1 Harmonize
1 Hex
1 Hour of Reckoning
1 Lightning Greaves
1 Mortify
1 Necrogenesis
1 Nemesis Trap
1 Oblivion Ring
1 Orzhov Signet
1 Selesnya Signet
1 Skullclamp
1 Sol Ring
1 Soul Snare
1 Storm Herd
1 Syphon Flesh
1 Tribute to the Wild
1 Vow of Duty
1 Vow of Malice
1 Vow of Wildness

This deck had fewer than ten reprints at rare, none of them much more than a dollar at the time. The big money here was Scavenging Ooze; a new card that Wizards also wanted to introduce into Legacy, which worked wonders. People tore into these decks, depressing cards like Awakening Zone, Attrition, and Skullclamp, though they all rebounded. If you had asked EDH players to talk about cards they thought would be in a WBG deck, you would have heard answers like Debtors’ Knell, Pernicious Deed, Vindicate, and Overgrown Tomb. We didn’t get that. We got a bunch of pretty cheap rares.

Nature of the Beast from 2013

1 Boros Garrison
1 Boros Guildgate
1 Command Tower
1 Contested Cliffs
1 Drifting Meadow
1 Evolving Wilds
8 Forest
1 Forgotten Cave
1 Gruul Guildgate
1 Homeward Path
1 Jungle Shrine
1 Khalni Garden
1 Mosswort Bridge
5 Mountain
1 Naya Panorama
1 New Benalia
1 Opal Palace
4 Plains
1 Rupture Spire
1 Secluded Steppe
1 Selesnya Guildgate
1 Selesnya Sanctuary
1 Slippery Karst
1 Smoldering Crater
1 Temple of the False God
1 Tranquil Thicket
1 Vitu-Ghazi, the City-Tree
1 Vivid Crag

1 Archangel
1 Avenger of Zendikar
1 Baloth Woodcrasher
1 Crater Hellion
1 Deadwood Treefolk
1 Drumhunter
1 Eternal Dragon
1 Gahiji, Honored One
1 Grazing Gladehart
1 Krosan Tusker
1 Krosan Warchief
1 Magus of the Arena
1 Mayael the Anima
1 Mold Shambler
1 Naya Soulbeast
1 Rakeclaw Gargantuan
1 Rampaging Baloths
1 Ravenous Baloth
1 Spellbreaker Behemoth
1 Spitebellows
1 Terra Ravager
1 Valley Rannet

1 Behemoth Sledge
1 Boros Charm
1 Cultivate
1 Curse of Chaos
1 Curse of Predation
1 Curse of the Forsaken
1 Darksteel Mutation
1 Druidic Satchel
1 Fiery Justice
1 Fireball
1 Fires of Yavimaya
1 From the Ashes
1 Harmonize
1 Hull Breach
1 Mystic Barrier
1 Naya Charm
1 One Dozen Eyes
1 Rain of Thorns
1 Restore
1 Savage Twister
1 Seer’s Sundial
1 Slice and Dice
1 Slice in Twain
1 Sol Ring
1 Spawning Grounds
1 Sprouting Vines
1 Street Spasm
1 Swiftfoot Boots
1 Tempt with Discovery
1 Tower of Fortunes
1 War Cadence
1 Warstorm Surge
1 Where Ancients Tread
1 Witch Hunt
1 Wrath of God

Two years later, the value is still expected to come mostly from the new cards. Rares like Where Ancients Tread, Magus of the Arena, Crater Hellion… If you’d asked EDH players in 2013 before this came out what they expected to be reprinted in a WRG deck, they would have said things like Knight of the Reliquary, Azusa, and Vigor.

Built from Scratch from 2014

1 Goblin Welder
1 Epochrasite
1 Myr Retriever
1 Myr Sire
1 Bottle Gnomes
1 Cathodion
1 Junk Diver
1 Palladium Myr
1 Pilgrim’s Eye
1 Tuktuk the Explorer
1 Dualcaster Mage
1 Feldon of the Third Path
1 Solemn Simulacrum
1 Flametongue Kavu
1 Beetleback Chief
1 Ingot Chewer
1 Steel Hellkite
1 Wurmcoil Engine
1 Spitebellows
1 Hoard-Smelter Dragon
1 Warmonger Hellkite
1 Myr Battlesphere
1 Pentavus
1 Tyrant’s Familiar
1 Bosh, Iron Golem
1 Bogardan Hellkite

1 Faithless Looting
1 Whipflare
1 Scrap Mastery
1 Incite Rebellion
1 Blasphemous Act
1 Impact Resonance
1 Chaos Warp
1 Volcanic Offering
1 Word of Seizing
1 Magmaquake
1 Starstorm

1 Everflowing Chalice
1 Panic Spellbomb
1 Sol Ring
1 Wayfarer’s Bauble
1 Fire Diamond
1 Ichor Wellspring
1 Liquimetal Coating
1 Mind Stone
1 Mycosynth Wellspring
1 Ruby Medallion
1 Swiftfoot Boots
1 Commander’s Sphere
1 Jalum Tome
1 Pristine Talisman
1 Unstable Obelisk
1 Trading Post
1 Caged Sun
1 Dreamstone Hedron
1 Loreseeker’s Stone
1 Spine of Ish Sah
1 Darksteel Citadel
1 Great Furnace

1 Bitter Feud

1 Arcane Lighthouse
1 Buried Ruin
1 Dormant Volcano
1 Flamekin Village
1 Forgotten Cave
1 Ghost Quarter
1 Phyrexia’s Core
1 Reliquary Tower
1 Smoldering Crater
1 Temple of the False God
29 Mountain

This is a best-case scenario for reprints, and the deck’s value was actually kind of absurd, to the point of depressing the prices of good, new cards, ironically. Instead of Dualcaster Mage crushing Wurmcoil Engine, look what happened.

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If you had asked people in 2014 what would have gone in a mono-red EDH deck and if you were charitable and told them it would be artifact-themed, they would have said stuff like Goblin Welder or Junk Diver or Metalworker or Bosh. I doubt they would have expected to get most of that list, plus Wurmcoil, plus Junk Diver, plus a silly planeswalker, plus Epochrasite.

We’re starting to see these decks, at least one or two of them per cycle, be pretty good. Is it really so ridiculous to think we could get a Pernicious Deed, Dack Fayden, Vindicate, Gisela, or… Wizards has crapped on Simic cards forever. What’s even the best Simic card? Prophet of Kruphix at $1? Zegana? Zegana, probably. Or Momir Vig. Still, why you gotta poop on Simic and make a ton of terrible cards and then like 10 good ones so we have to play the good ones and then people say, “Why does every Simic player always play Prophet of Kruphix?” and we’re like “BECAUSE WE $%^&ING HAVE TO!”

What are conceivable reprints for EDH decks in a universe where Wizards reprints Wurmcoil Engine? Will Wizards want to repeat a scenario where the reprints don’t get cheaper but they make new cards and old cards alike practically toilet paper?

So what do the enemy color pairings do, anyway? This wiki article talks about what each color pairing is good at and we can probably pick a few strong possibilites for a Wurmcoil-tier reprint and think about getting out of them or picking up cards that are not likely to be reprinted which could go in one of these deck. While Wurmcoil’s price didn’t go down a ton, it did make red, artifact-based decks appealing and the price is rebounding because people want to pick up every loose copy to play with.

So what are enemy-colored pairings all about? We’ll get as far as we can today and finish up next week. How’s that sound?

White / Black

Life Drain

Life drain is a great way for black/white to get people. However, a lot of those cards have been printed into the ground and/or were in Eternal Bargain, the deck with Oloro. That had a strong “life total changes matter” theme. Still, provided we do see something like that, there are some cards I’d expect in the deck.

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Exsanguinate is a $1 uncommon that will be trash forever if it’s in a decent EDH deck. If we see any life drain in the WB deck, I expect this to be in the mix. Death Grasp has been printed to absolute death and this is an older card that hasn’t seen a second printing despite being considered a staple for a while. This card is very good.

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This is a more powerful card, but it’s narrower. It’s more expensive for small amounts of mana, but once you start to really pump mana in, this does work. Too bad there is no money to be made or lost here.

Another Felidar Sovereign or Divinity of Pride reprinting seem unlikely, given how recently they were both reprinted. A life drain theme could give them upside, but I expect Felidar Sovereign to go up regardless, and again, Oloro’s deck makes me think it’s not super likely we’ll see this theme in an upcoming deck. Still, we need to investigate every lead.

In the unlikely event we do get a life drain theme, a card I expect to not be in the deck but get some real upside in price is this guy.

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Serra Ascendant was a mistake, as having a turn-one, one-mana Baneslayer is silly for EDH. I doubt Wizards would reprint this in EDH sealed product despite its price approaching $20. This card will continue to climb in price until reprinted. Do you think Wizards would put this in EDH sealed product? I don’t, either.

This seems pretty safe to me. Even if it  is reprinted, it could pull a Wurmcoil and bounce right back up—unless there’s value in the rest of the deck.

Exiling

WB sure is good at exiling stuff. Sometimes white brings it back, sometimes it doesn’t. Black just makes stuff disappear. This is a bit of a subtheme for white-black, but there aren’t a ton of great reprints possible. Do you think Vindicate will be in the deck? It’s possible that we see Unmake, Castigate, Merciless Eviction, etc.

Merciless Eviction is a great card for reprinting in this deck if we see this subtheme at all, which is too bad, because this was a card I liked long-term. It deals with a lot of stuff and its mana cost isn’t prohibitive in EDH the way it was, a bit, in Standard.

Angel of Despair has already gotten a Commander reprinting, and at $3 to $4, I think it could potentially get another nod. This was excluded from FTV Angels. What we could also see in its place is a card that has no reprintings.

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If Ashen Rider gets reprinted, boo. If this doesn’t get reprinted, though, we have an opportunity. It could be a while before this is considered for a reprinting, as WWBB makes it a little tough to jam in three- or four-color decks which means the best time to reprint this in an EDH product is now. If it isn’t reprinted, we will be very close to rotation and these will be at their floor. This card is busted. While there are ways other than an EDH product to reprint this, I think dodging a reprinting in Commander 2015 means this card is a must-buy. I’m going deep on these if they’re not included in the deck. They’ll be cheap, they’ll have dodged a very likely reprint opportunity, and they will still be ridiculous in EDH. Sure, it’s not an angel, but it’s also nuts.

I would like to think the white-black deck will avoid the obvious life draining theme, but only because Wizards just did that with Oloro. Instead, I imagine the list will get a little more creative, perhaps doing something with Teysa, Orzhov Scion and similar cards. I expect Teysa in the 99 with a brand new commander at the helm. If Darkest Hour isn’t in the deck, expect that to be a card people “discover” as more people build toward a deck like this. Lingering Souls, Twilight Shepherd, cards that grant persist or undying like Cauldron of Souls, and Mikaeus, the Unhallowed will be in demand or reprinted.

If Wizards disappoints me and goes back to a WB life drain strategy, I won’t be surprised, really, and I covered what to do given that eventuality. Vizkopa Guildmage, the Sanguine Bond/Exquisite Blood combo, and even cards like Tainted Sigil will be in high demand. I’ll talk more about those eventualities when we see spoilers.

Eyes Like Donuts

I’m getting near the point where your eyes glaze over, and I only got through my preamble and one color pairing. I expected to get a little farther today, but that is okay. Since we’re ahead of the curve, we can take our time and be thorough with this subject matter and really do our due diligence.

I have a little wiggle room to talk what we expect the “Wurmcoil” of the WB deck to potentially be. Now, Wizards could spread the value over a lot of cards that will go from $5 to $7 down to $2 to $4, or print a Containment Priest-tier card that will depress the rest of the cards in the deck. However, if this deck does have a reprint in WB that is $15 to $18 like Wurmcoil was, what do we think we could see?

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This is around the right price, but this seems kind of underwhelming in EDH. Sure, it’s very versatile, but I don’t know if you make most of the value of an EDH set end up in a card that could have its deck slot occupied by Mortify or Unmake and have the deck be roughly as good. Vindicate is $14 better than Mortify in Legacy. I’m not so sure it is in EDH.

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This seems likelier, paired with a $5-ish card, perhaps? This isn’t the same price point, but spreading that value over two cards may do more good overall, putting two staples in players’ hands instead of just one. Attrition, maybe? If we insist on looking at $15-ish cards, there are a few that are WB staples.

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Black Market is out of control and pretty good in a WB deck. If you’re sacrificing a lot of stuff to a creature like Teysa, blowing up a lot of permanents with removal, or just letting stuff die like it tends to in EDH, this card is dumb. There aren’t too many cards like this. Braid of Fire is another, that benefit from the removal of the mana burn rule. You’ve seen what pure EDH demand has done to this unfair card and a reprinting would be a nice relief valve for the price and give a few more players access. It synergizes with just about any WB strategy, also, rewarding you for sacrificing creatures or fueling a big Exsanguinate. This would be a good reprint.

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“This card is HOW MUCH?” –Non-EDH players.

Phyrexian Altar is a great choice, too. It fits well into a WB deck that emphasizes sacrificing, life-draining, or even both. It’s a card that more players would play if they could afford it, and Wizards could give it some sick new art depicting a newer hero than Tsabo. This card is pure EDH and the price reflects that reality.

Grab the Cushion

I think we can put a pin in it for this week. Next week, I’ll skip the preamble and launch right into it. We’ll see if we can’t take down two color combinations next week and two the week after. Seems like a good way to split it up to me.

What did I miss? What did I overstate? What do you hope to see in a white-black EDH deck? For those who don’t care about EDH, why? A poop rare like Black Market is now $18 and you’re off fighting over how many pennies you can make on Woodland Wanderer. Don’t be clowns—at least pay attention to what casuals are doing. Who would you rather trade with? That’s what I thought.

Until next week!