Tag Archives: Magic finance

Modern Masters 2015 Controversy

May 11, 2015 Jared Yost 19 Comments

So the full spoiler for Modern Masters 2015 has finally gone up at the mothership. As usual, there was both excitement and disappointment at the reveal. While players will certainly be getting some incredible staples reprinted like Tarmogoyf and Emrakul, there were also many who lamented the sheer amount of duds in the set. There are simply rares included which can’t be described as anything other than bulk. This telling graph that was posted shortly after the reveal on Reddit (link), and it tells all:

Odds are you are going to be pretty disappointed with those $10 packs if you buy them one at a time. On the plus side, If you’re lucky enough to pull a mythic rare than you have a very good chance of getting your value back and being quite happy – there are many more valuable mythic rares this time around than last time. Thankfully Wizards has learned from the Kamigawa dragon cycle fiasco. Yet, did they really have to put so many bulk rares into a set that is supposed to get Modern staples out there into the market? I realize that we as players want this set to be an amazing limited experience – there’s no doubt that players even until this day still enjoy drafting Modern Masters 2013 and I have friends that keep MM cubes together because reliving the experience is just so much fun. However, I think there is a way to balance this out that Wizards seems to have missed.

We Get Phyrexian Mana But…

There is no Gitaxian Probe. That’s right folks, what was probably on the Top 10 of everybody’s guesses at what was going to be printed into oblivion this summer got a reprint reprieve. When I saw Mutagenic Growth and Gut Shot without their blue brethren, my head turned slightly to the side like this.

Seriously, huh!?!? Well, that bodes well for the set foil copies that I picked up at $3 each but now I’m wishing I didn’t out all the promo copies that I’ve been acquiring. Thankfully we’re getting Spellskite this time around so everyone can stop complaining about how a card that only sees one or two copies per deck is over $20. Not anymore!

We Get Repeal But…

There is no Serum Visions. Alright, this one made me shake my head in serious disbelief. This was my number one card for getting a reprint in the set. This was the most obvious call! Yet, it was not to be and the little common that could will continue to keep climbing to completely absurd prices. Hope you at least held on to a playset because without a reprint in the near future Serum Visions is going up, up, up…

At least blue gave us the following:

Cryptic Command

Hurkyl’s Recall

Remand

We’ll just have to take the good with the bad, like we usually do as Magic players.

We Got Daybreak Coronet, yay! But…

The set has practically no Limited support for the enchantment-enchantment that is the all star of the Bogles deck. In other words, if you decided to actually, you know, draft the set then God forbid that you open one of these in your pack! Even worse is if you’re stuck with one of these in your GP Vegas Sealed pool! Talk about bad value, at least play-wise.

Thankfully, we did get the following spicy enchantments:

Splinter Twin

Leyline of Sanctity

Bitterblossom

So again, we must take the good with the bad. Ironically, Wizards was okay with just throwing in Leyline of Sanctity to get more copies out there (let’s face it: the card is actually worse than Daybreak Coronet in Limited) while at the same time excluding commons like Serum Visions and Gitaxian Probe. Sigh.

We Get Great Mythics But…

We’ve got a great assortment of mythics this time around – all of them are currently valued pretty high besides Comet Storm. Initial comparisons of prices (current day) were drawn up on the mtgfinance subreddit and this is what we have so far:

That’s a significant amount of mythics currently over $15. But, some won’t stay that way as time goes on – lots of cards are going to drop in price in the short term. Casual hits will drop in price as the market becomes saturated and that will be the time to pick them up.

Look at all those terrible, bulk rares. So let me see, besides a lack of commons and uncommons that are within the $2-$4 range, we also have a pretty decent chance of getting Inexorable Tide in a $10 pack? That just seems cruel to people who only buy one pack, Wizards.

It is cool that certain cards were downgraded to rare, like All is Dust – so instead of taking up a mythic slot you now have a much better chance of value at rare until the market is saturated. Still though, for every All is Dust there is going to be a Shadowmage Infiltrator, and for every Noble Hierarch there will be an Ant Queen. Since this is Modern Masters, the prices for many of these cards only stand to go down during the short term as more product is released to the market.

It’s Not All Doom and Gloom!

In summary, Modern Masters 2015 is a mixed bag just like the last one. While last time we received terrible mythics and decent rares, this time around we’ve gotten great mythics and mostly bad rares. To be fair though, they are only bad if we categorize them all as tournament staples – there are plenty of casual targets in those rares that are bound to go up once their price bottoms out such as Creakwood Liege. Like Warren Buffet (and Sig!), we should find opportunity where others find woe. Look for the diamonds hidden the rough that will grow over time due to non-Modern demand.

Also, even though there will be some bumps in terms of Sealed Deck play, this format looks great for Draft! My friends and I are going to love building and playing with a Cube of this set, and drafting fresh packs will surely lead to many memorable games.

I haven’t done the expected value per pack calculations on the set yet, but I’m guessing that the math will show that EV is going to be equal to MSRP in the short term when more than just the mythics and rares are considered (even with all the non-inclusions at common/uncommon). Singles might drop, however per pack players should be, on average, pretty satisfied with their pulls, especially since there is a foil in every pack. Plus, the mythics might not drop all that much if the set is scarcer than Wizards has led us to believe. Wizards is very good at pricing these types of products based on market research, so if you open a ton of packs right way you are bound to at least make your money back if we bring the commons and uncommons into the equation (thanks James Chillcott for the insight!).

What are your big targets from this set once the prices start to nose dive? Mine are Emrakul, the Aeons Torn, Kozilek, Butcher of Truth, Cryptic Command, Noble Hierarch, and Creakwood Liege.

ProTrader, Sigmund Ausfresser, Unlocked ProTrader

UNLOCKED PROTRADER: MM2015 — The Unofficial MTG Stimulus

May 11, 2015 Sigmund Ausfresser 13 Comments

As a response to the Great Recession of Wall Street, the Federal Reserve initiated a multitude of stimulus programs. They initiated a massive bond buying program and they lowered interest rates to virtually zero. These two actions were done in an attempt to stimulate our economy and drive healthy motivation for investment in stocks.

The jury is still out on how sustainable the program was (is). Some dissenters will likely criticize the stimuli for years to come no matter the outcome. But regardless of what your political leaning may be, the resulting market performance since is impossible to argue with.

Turning back to MTG finance, one could argue that some particular cards have also been going through some economic turbulence. Original dual lands come to mind immediately – especially the out-of-favor color combinations. Other Legacy staples have also pulled off their recent highs by a measurable amount. Some Modern staples have also spiked recently, only to retreat to a lower price point.

What’s to become of this developing trend? Could Magic be due for a Great Recession type of pullback?

Certainly not. The game is as healthy as ever. In fact, this week I present a new thesis that supports a new surge in some card prices. Allow me to explain.

Modern Masters 2015

Who’s excited for the release of one of the highest EV sets upon release of all time? Who’s pumped up to participate in or watch the largest MTG tournaments ever? Who’s eager to draft this set, which will definitely be a Limited crowd-pleaser?

No matter your perspective, it’s difficult to argue with the hype behind Modern Masters 2015. Even if you are a complete skeptic, dripping with disdain for some of the wasted rare slots in the set (Endrek Sahr, Master Breeder?!), you’re likely excited about the future prospects of the cards that dodged reprint this set. Speculators have been very busy lately…

Six of the top ten price gainers last week were Modern cards that dodged MM2015 reprint. The Tron lands were noteworthy absences, and clearly Inkmoth Nexus and Serum Visions are strong buys on the news. Or at least, they were strong buys before the market overreacted, sending copies up excessively high overnight.

My conclusion for Modern Masters 2015: while I’m personally not ecstatic to be opening $10 packs with a high likelihood of obtaining a sub-$1 rare, the swirl this set is generating amongst the MTG finance community is nearly tangible. I’m delighted to witness hours of debate on Twitter about card prices. The buzz should continue through GP Vegas without a hitch.

If ever there was a time to engage in MTG speculation and finance, now would be it. And with the return of a Modern PTQ season, we’ve got even more reason to get excited about Modern.

MTG Stimulus: Part 1

When the Federal Reserve bought up many billions of dollars of bonds, they infused a large amount of cash into the economy. Then they reduced rates so low that there was practically no good place to park money other than into investments. The result: a rapid decline in unemployment and multiple years of double-digit gains in the stock market.

Turning back to Magic, we need to recognize how tentative people were with buying into Modern with the knowledge that a massive reprint set was on the horizon. It’s always a feel-bad when we buy cards only to watch them tank in price due to reprinting. Therefore, I suspect players and speculators held cash on the sidelines waiting for Modern Masters 2015 to be fully spoiled. Only then would there be high confidence in which targets would be safe to buy into.

Well, last Friday we received the complete spoiler from WOTC. Various absent cards created quite the surprise – namely, Tron lands, Serum Visions, Aven Mindcensor, Blood Moon, Inquisition of Kozilek, Azusa, Inkmoth Nexus, and more. It’s no surprise that many of these cards are on the move as players and speculators acquire copies for the upcoming Modern season.

In rapid-fire fashion, everyone is infusing cash into the MTG economy as they scoop up copies of the “safe” cards. This pseudo-stimulus is a combination of self-fulfilling prophecy and pent-up demand. Now that speculators know what cards are likely to further increase in value, they can invest with confidence. After all, what better place was there to invest funds than something like Inkmoth Nexus once we were certain it wasn’t in MM2015?

Now Inkmoth Nexus is a $20 card, and it will likely climb higher in the coming months. As speculators cash out on the movement they’ll have additional funds with which to work. What are they going to do with all their newfound profits?

MTG Stimulus: Part 2

I’ve got a couple ideas of where this money will go. First of all, there will likely be some great buy opportunities on my radar once MM2015 hits the market: namely, the popular reprinted cards. The Modern staples of the set are likely to sell off a bit in the coming weeks, due to both panic and the increased supply. The same thing happened with MMA on a card like Cryptic Command.

Modern demand sent this card up to around $45 in Spring 2013, but the MMA reprint caused a rapid decline back to the $30 mark. But about eight months after the sell-off, Cryptic Command rebounded like never before, shooting up to $70.

Now once again, we’re seeing a rapid sell-off. The blue instant is already back down to $50, with momentum suggesting this could go even lower. But this begs the question: will history repeat itself? Will Modern grow in popularity even more, sending Cryptic’s price right back up to new highs in eight months? It’s certainly not impossible, and I’d wager this was WOTC’s plan. They are hoping to support and stimulate interest in the Modern format with these Modern Masters sets, and time will tell how successful they will be with round two.

Either way the reprinted cards in MM2015 are bound to sell off, but eventually they’ll bottom. When that happens, we as speculators should recognize the buying opportunity screaming at us. And with their newly-minted coin from the recent movement in non-reprinted cards, they’ll buoy the MTG economy into these headwinds.

If you’re not bullish on the Modern format, or if you’re concerned about further reprints in other sets, I have some good news. MM2015 reprints aren’t the only solid buys once the dust settles.

As players discover their Inkmoth Nexus and Serum Visions are suddenly worth a bunch more, they’ll be likely to sell/trade excess copies away. Additionally, [lucky] players will suddenly come into all kinds of money when they pull Goyfs, Cliques, and Bobs in their MM2015 packs, not to mention a lineup of Eldrazi. What will the lucky ones do with their valuable pulls?

While it’s true some players will determine that opening a Goyf is the perfect motivator to sleeve up Abzan Midrange in Modern, I suspect many others will be cashing out of their valuable pulls. After all, if we are assuming the Modern Masters 2015 reprints are likely to lower prices, that means the market must see increased supply. That’s natural supply & demand logic – for the price to drop, demand must drop (not likely) or supply must rise. If supply is rising, that must mean people are selling more copies. Likely this will mean their newly-opened copies…after the initial panic, such as what we’re seeing in charts like Cryptic Command and Noble Hierarch.

As players cash out of their Modern staples, what do you think they’ll look to buy? I saw a well-phrased tweet last weekend from an individual I have high respect for in the MTG finance community.

I can’t vouch for Pucatrade specifically, but I condone his overall strategy 100%. Judging by all the favorites this tweet received, I can tell we’re not alone in this sentiment. Moving high-dollar Modern cards into equities on the Reserved List is a brilliant strategy. You’re basically capitalizing on short-term price fluctuations in the Modern market by moving into cards that will never see reprint again. Even if Inkmoth Nexus does rise to $30 during Modern season, we know it will see reprint eventually, right?

Meanwhile, Tropical Island will never see reprint.

This particular dual land has been out of favor for months now, but perhaps the recent stimulus of MM2015 is just the catalyst needed for movement. Although not on the Reserve List, Wasteland is another Legacy staple that could use some stimulus – the Nonbasic land has stumbled over 50% from its highs.

If high-end Legacy staples aren’t your forte, then picking up other Reserve List cards may be a more optimal strategy. We just saw Ragnar jump in price on Tiny Leaders speculation; why not grab a couple Lady Evangela? I hope to in Vegas, in fact. Or better yet, pick up a couple Old Man of the Seas (Old Men of the Sea?). These have been gaining traction lately. I even see casual stuff like Divine Intervention and Island of Wak-Wak show up on the MTGStocks Interests page on occasion. Not only is this on the Reserve List, there’s really nothing else like it. I have a sneaking suspicion Wizards will never again print a card that forces the game to end in a draw. And what casual Reserve List discussion is complete without mention of my favorite Magic card of all time, Shahrazad?

You’ll never see a sudden buyout of this card, but it’s worth noting how the top buy list price has gradually been on the rise for the last 2 years.

No matter your personal preference, moving out of spiking Modern cards or recently-opened MM2015 goodies and into Reserve List favorites is a tried-and-true strategy I recommend. It’s a great way to lock in profits and reduce risk at the same time.

Wrapping It Up

A significant amount of money is going to exchange hands this summer. Speculators will rampantly acquire non-reprinted Modern cards. Players will be opening high-dollar cards left and right. This will lead to a sudden surge of value in the MTG economy – a type of stimulus.

My prediction: this stimulus will be just what the MTG economy needed for the past few months. Modern interest will jump and demand for Legacy and casual staples will go higher as well. If you want to get ahead of the curve, consider moving into cards on the Reserve List now, as Xemit suggested. I’ve provided a few sound suggestions, and I’m sure there are many others worth considering.

The tide will rise once more, lifting all ships. Therefore it is a great time to have exposure to MTG assets. My portfolio is currently the largest it has been since I sold out of Legacy over two years ago, and I look forward to seeing my holdings appreciate in value in the coming months thanks to this unofficial stimulus.

…

Sig’s Quick Hits

If you have a large quantity of Modern stuff to move, one sound acquisition target is Bazaar of Baghdad. In fact in the last couple weeks Star City Games increased their price on the Vintage staple from $399.99 to $449.99 for NM copies. It’s a steep price of entry, but you can be confident in this long-term investment’s prospects should MTG continue to grow.
One Modern/Legacy card that is not seeing nearly enough buzz is Slaughter Pact. The card managed to dodge reprint in MM2015 (unlike in MMA), meaning we’re not getting any new supply of this rare. Every time I search for the card on SCG’s site, it is out of stock. Today is no exception, and the $10 price tag is almost guaranteed to rise as we head into Modern season.
Lion’s Eye Diamond gets very little buzz in the MTG finance community, but the Reserve List card has been a Legacy staple for years. Currently SCG is sold out of this one as well, with a NM price tag of $86.29. There are probably a few more exciting pick-ups to target with newfound profits, but no one can argue with the low risk of LED. The card is off its highs much like other Legacy staples, and this stimulus could help rekindle interest.

ProTrader, Sigmund Ausfresser, Unlocked ProTrader

UNLOCKED PROTRADER: Advanced Economics and MTG Finance – Part 2

May 4, 2015 Sigmund Ausfresser 16 Comments

Polling is closed and results are in. I am delighted to report that despite the fact that my article last week was untraditional and lacked money-making insights, the majority of readers commented their desire to read part two! This is an encouraging result for me because I truly have passion for this field of exploration. Combining MTG finance, real life finance (“RL Finance”), and economic theory is a niche area that really invigorates me. Glad I’m not alone.

So without further ado, I’ll dive into the second installment of advanced economics and MTG finance.

Where We Left Off

My recap of last week’s column will be brief. If you wish to explore the full background I encourage you to read the piece in full before proceeding to this one.

In last week’s article I introduced the field of Game Theory and explained why I felt Magic card buyouts were an example of a “game”. Then using certain assumptions I concluded that the outcome of the Magic buyout game is comparable to the typical outcome of the Prisoner’s Dilemma. Even though there is a strictly better outcome for the entire population, a non-ideal conclusion is reached due to everyone’s (understandably) selfish motivation to maximize profits.

Despite any efforts we as a community take to combat this phenomenon, I call almost guarantee that the suboptimal outcome will always be reached. Buyouts will continue to occur rapidly leading to a temporary, artificially-high price. This will result in some players overpaying for their copies and other players unable/unwilling to purchase copies at the new, elevated price. A few speculators who bought cheap copies may be able to out some for profit, but the net value across everyone involved isn’t optimal. It would be more favorable if everyone cooperated – purchasing only the copies they needed and encouraging others to do the same – mitigating price spikes and enabling slow, healthy price appreciation.

I used the term “healthy” to describe price appreciation that doesn’t reflect buyouts because gradual, natural price growth is often more sustainable. Many casual cards not dwelt on in Twitter chatter fit this mold. Corbin recently wrote a terrific piece describing why he likes casual play and its effect on finance. This would be one of my favorite aspects; namely the gradual increase in prices driven by natural supply and demand shifts. Avacyn, Angel of Hope comes to mind as a perfect example – the price chart shows a monotonic increase in price over years of time.

On the other hand we have Ragnar, a different kind of casual card that was suddenly bought out on the internet on Tiny Leaders speculation. The result: a $6 card is now a $30 card and players interested in picking this guy up for Tiny Leaders are now stuck between a rock and a hard place. Either pay way too much for a card with very narrow utility or sit on the sidelines and wait.

I don’t think I need to provide any further explanation as to why Avacyn’s price increase will be sustainable and continue further (until she’s reprinted). The jury is still out on Ragnar, however. His price certainly won’t tank – the card is too old and it’s on the Reserved List. But I’m not quite sure players are going to want to pay $30 for him, either. There are certainly other Bant options for Tiny Leaders. I suspect his price drops back down to the $20 range in the next couple weeks, as copies slowly trickle back into the market.

If you want a recommendation here, go buy Jenara, Asura of War. She’s a far better Bant general for Tiny Leaders and she hasn’t been forcibly bought out. Instead, the Bant angel continues to steadily appreciate in price. Barring reprint, she will continue to become more and more expensive as players and angel collectors alike seek out their copy. No one is buying this card out, so you can trust that the higher price is sustainable.

Application 2: Where You Buy

Let’s assume for a moment that you want to play the buyout game. You’ve decided you like the Ragnar spec because there are just so few copies in existence and the artwork is too cool to ignore. You notice the buyout is happening and you decide to act.

What do you do next? Likely you navigate to a well-known website like TCG Player or eBay and buy some copies…you and everyone else. Motivations for using these large sites vary. Some like the large selection and array of sellers. Others simply like TCG Player because they want their purchases to move the market (via mtgstocks.com).

But do you know what happens when many people flock to the same location to purchase their copies of a card? In Prisoner’s Dilemma style, people steal cards out of each other’s cart and cause that artificial price spike. Latecomers could potentially blindly overpay for their copies because of their assumptions that TCG Player (or eBay) is the best place to buy cards. Star City Games, Channel Fireball, and other major retailers also sell out quickly during these buyouts, but at least they go “out of stock” so you don’t end up overpaying.

This is where an advanced economic analysis could be beneficial. Because everyone is prone to “defect” and purchase many copies of a card during a buy out, the price artificially jumps. But do you ever notice that TCG Player is often where a card’s price jumps first? It’s naturally one of the first places most people go.

It’s comparable to a mad dash through a doorway into a room – everyone pushes and shoves their way through, causing significant discomfort with a few unhappy stragglers in the back. What would happen if some people would stop shoving in the largest, most heavily used doorway and instead walked around to the side doors? Those side doors would have far less traffic, making the experience much more enjoyable and less competitive.

Moving back to MTG, this would be comparable to purchasing a hot card from a less-popular website. How many times have you visited ABU Games upon discovery of a new buyout taking place (like during a Pro Tour)? How many people have shopped from Ideal808.com before? Who first visits Cardshark.com, Amazon.com or even Coolstuffinc.com before trying eBay and TCG Player?

I find I have the highest success buying from sites that do NOT use TCG Player as an alternate way to sell cards. Channel Fireball usually sells out with the rest of them because they also sell on eBay. The same is true for Troll and Toad. But ABU Games doesn’t list many cards on eBay or TCG Player, so they often have cards in stock hours or even days after a buyout. Because everyone is so fixated on the most popular sites, these smaller players have copies that remain after a buyout. By walking into the metaphorical room through a less popular side door, you can still get inside the room without any jostling. This is truly the optimal outcome.

And this is the key application of the Prisoner’s Dilemma to MTG Finance. It was my primary motivation for writing on this subject in the first place. By “cooperating” and visiting diverse sites when purchasing cards we can mitigate artificial hype and price spikes. What’s more, we’re more likely to grab the copies we want near the “old” price!

Knowledge is Power

You may be left wondering if this is truly practical advice. You may be thinking “this sounds logical in theory, but it would never work in practice.”

I have plenty of examples that prove that application of this knowledge can lead to profits. I’ll share three.

Example 1) A few weeks ago there was a mad dash on Foil Teferi’s Response. The card was bought out all over the internet, and the only copies still available for sale on TCG Player and eBay were in the $20 range. I sifted through various sites hoping to find copies at the “old” price. I was in luck.

ABU Games still had a few copies for sale, and although they were all played the price was too good to pass up. I pulled the trigger.

Was I able to out these for profit? Indeed. I sold one copy to a friend on Twitter and two copies on eBay. But do you want to know the best out for the remaining copies? I buy listed them right back to ABU Games again…for twice what I paid them!

Example 2) I suppose I should have seen Ragnar’s buyout coming, because it mirrors the earlier buyout of Tetsuo Umezawa almost perfectly.

The Legends rare suddenly jumped from $20 to $40 and then $50, likely due to more Tiny Leaders speculation. Rather than rush to TCG Player and buy copies there, I first went to one of my favorite go-to sites: Card Shark. I was in luck.

I grabbed these two copies the day after the card already spiked and proceeded to sell them on eBay as soon as they arrived. Shopping at less popular sites led to easy profit.

Example 3) The jury is still out on my most recent example, but I am confident this will pay out. Every day I visit mtgstocks.com to view the most active price movers in Magic. And recently the site added a new, foil Interests page. Last week’s foil Interests page looked like this:

Noticing the sudden jump in foil Pride of the Clouds and foil Fumiko the Lowblood, I did my usual, thorough search. Once again I struck gold.

It seems yet again ABU Games was forgotten in these buyouts, allowing me to casually visit the site, add copies to my cart, and make the purchase. I am confident I will be able to sell these for profit in the near future – if anything, ABU Games may up their buy price enough so that I can sell these back to them again.

Wrapping It Up

Game Theory is a powerful field. It predicts so many phenomena in real life, such as nuclear arms races and advertising. It predicts defection when cooperation would be the optimal strategy. Magic: the Gathering finance is not immune to the theory. Buy outs in particular are exercises of the Prisoner’s Dilemma, whereby people rush to buy copies from popular sites, causing unnecessary price jumps. Those too late to the game either overpay for their copies or sit on the sideline frustrated with their inaction.

But there is one way we can “cooperate” and avoid the hassle of the buyout. By searching less popular sites, we are afforded extra time to obtain our copies without the mad dash for profits. Let everyone else rush through the main doorway, causing jams and headaches. We know there are plenty of side doors with no line, allowing us to pull up a chair and watch the circus that ensues. And even if the price jump doesn’t stick, at least you’ve paid the “old” price rather than the rapidly rising buyout price. And who knows? Maybe a buyout will happen again, giving you the chance to move your copies. After all, selling into the hype is definitely more fun and more profitable than buying into it.

…

Sig’s Quick Hits

It’s only a matter of time before Lady Evangela gets the Ragnar / Tetsuo treatment. She’s another old-school Reserved List general option for Tiny Leaders. But for now, she’s not attracting as much attention. SCG still has a few in stock: NM at $12.99 and SP at $11.99. Watch this one closely for potential movement.
Engineered Explosives has really been hot lately. There’s now only 1 copy in stock across the two printings: copies from Fifth Dawn are $10.49 and Modern Masters are $9.69. These will both increase soon, I suspect.
Here’s a penny stock worth keeping an eye on: Retract, from Darksteel. The card is getting attention in some Modern brews. And although I haven’t seen the card in action yet, I did note that Star City Games is out of stock. NM copies are listed at $0.49 and foils at $2.99, but I suspect both numbers to rise soon.

Jared Yost, The Gilded Goblin

What’s on the Reserved List – Legends Edition

May 4, 2015 Jared Yost 3 Comments

Legends has always been a fascinating set full of unique cards. It is certainly a set that we should keep our eyes on for card price movements. The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale, Invoke Prejudice, Angus Mackenzie, In the Eye of Chaos, and Land Equilibrium have all seen substantial gains over the past few years. For some of them, these gains are only going to be greater as the years go on because they will become harder and harder to find.

Recently there has been buzz around cards from Legends that have been gaining steam recently. Cards that have started seeing gains include the likes of Ragnar, Eureka, Divine Intervention, Lady Evangela, and Telekinesis. Well gee, what gives here? Sure, we could attribute some this movement to Tiny Leaders speculation since they are old, hard to find cards that can fill niche roles in the format. However, why are cards like Eureka and Divine Intervention gaining steam these days?

Simply, the Reserve List.

Today, I’m going to throw all of the cards from Legends on the Reserve List at you and provide some quick commentary on where I think its future will price will end up. This will cover everything from Tabernacle to Wood Elemental. Some of the areas of interest I’ll be looking for are:

Has this card’s effect been replicated in any way?
- Follow up – Has this card’s effect already been outclassed by recent cards?
What formats will the card be played in?
Does the card have a good probability of being outclassed in the future?

With those questions in mind let’s take a look at some of our Reserve List friends from Legends. One thing to keep in mind is when I say a card will “never be created again in a similar fashion,” I’m referring to Wizards’ modern design policies for how they want Magic to be created. Some examples includes watering down counterspells, making sure removal isn’t too efficient and “Staxx effects” that destroy lands, prevent spells from being cast or can easily lock the game down on a significantly early turn.

The List

Card	Comments
The Abyss	Our list starts out with one of the most expensive cards from Legends. The Abyss is something that will never be created again in a similar fashion. Imagine casting this on turn two with a Dark Ritual! Oh, the humanity. This is the definition of a Staxx effect that will never return. Magus of the Abyss is easy to remove and can actually kill itself without other creatures on your side of the board (which is why it’s a bulk rare) and I believe that is the closest we’ll ever get to seeing The Abyss’ power again. Well, Call to the Grave is pretty close but does cost one mana more! This bodes well for the card’s future price, as it is set to only go up over time. This is a slow gainer though – the price hasn’t even moved in the past four years. It will be some time before this card goes up again because it has limited use in Constructed Magic, which relegates it to the kitchen tables and Commander games. Certainly a card to keep your eye on if you want to pick up something neat for your black Commander deck.
Acid Rain	WELL, if green ever does become the dominant color of Magic in fifty years, this could be as insane as Boil!…. This card already being at $20 is pretty high for its limited utility. Color hosers are only as good in Constructed as the metagame, and for eternal formats blue will always be king which relegates cheap, massive Forest killing to the side. Cool art but this card has been outclassed by other blue things over the years. Sure, you can troll your Commander group with this if they have a particular knack for dual lands the color blue in general, though otherwise this will be a slooooooow gainer over the years.
Adun Oakenshield	Depending on where you look, Adun is anywhere from $40 to $50 or more. This card took a particular hard spike back in April 2013 because someone recognized that it is pretty killer in Commander as a general. Tiny Leaders could add future value to Adun so he is something to watch out for in the future even at the current price.
Al-abara’s Carpet	This card is actually pretty insane, barring that you play it early enough in a Commander game and your opponent isn’t playing a ton of flyers. I would say at $5 the “poor man’s Moat” is pretty cheap for the reserved list and has a powerful effect. Certainly blows Scarecrow out of the water!
Alchor’s Tomb	This is an example of a “do nothing” card – it costs a ton of mana for an effect that does nothing to hamper your opponent or increase your own board position without heavy outside support. The only reason this card is $3 is because it is on the list. This is the first card we’ve encountered that is RSB – reserve list bulk. Avoid.
All Hallow’s Eve	One mana short of being in Tiny Leaders, this card could have fit right in with Time Spiral block since the scream counters are basically the same as the Suspend mechanic. The inspiration for Twilight’s Call, Living Death, and Living End, the card has power even if it is delayed. At $40, it is a pricier card that probably will get outclassed in the future as Living End has a Modern deck based around it and is still only $6. Though neat, probably better to avoid if you’re looking for quicker gains.
Angus Mackenzie	With Commander and Tiny Leaders demand, Angus has been gaining steadily over the past several years and has no signs of stopping. A great general and powerful static effect, I can only see him growing more steadily as the years go on. One thing to keep in mind is that Angus’ effect might be outclassed in the future, though the creature would probably cost much more mana for a similar effect.
Bartel Runeaxe	Legendary, yet sadly has been severely outclassed over the years by creature creep. RSB.
Boris Devilboon	Boris does seem like he good be good, but he is competing with similar cards like Sek’Kura, Deathkeeper in the modern Magic landscape. Looking closer, he has weak stats for his mana cost and the activated ability is costly as well. RSB.
Caverns of Despair	Similar to Al-abara’s Carpet, this card has a decently powerful effect since it gives red access to something that these days it would never receive. It’s pretty nice for control decks since it gives them another tool to stave off creatures. Though we look to Crawlspace as the de facto way to control attacks, this card also affects blocking creatures which is something to note. I can see it being outclassed in the future, though not in the color red. Keep an eye on this one moving forward.
Chains of Mephistopheles	Chains is already crazy expensive, however it could get even more expensive as time goes on. It is a card that sees niche play in Legacy and is certainly cube and Commander worthy. The price explosion I believe is pretty much over, since the card has gone from $50 to $350 in the space of three years or so. I would still expect small, marginal gains from Chains over the next few years.
Cleanse	A Wrath of God for only black creatures, this card might see play in Legacy one day though I highly doubt it. It’s on the cheaper end at $9 but, again, where is it going to see play? It is too narrow to have any applications in constructed environments 95% of the time. Not exactly RSB yet too expensive for formats like Legacy.
Disharmony	A strictly worse Grab the Reins, this card is another to be avoided since it has been outclassed. RSB.
Divine Intervention	Even though this card says the game ends in a draw, I think we can all agree that it you get this to go off in a game of Commander that you’re the real winner. A neat card without any near comparisons other than the “you win the game” cycle of enchantments from Judgment, I could see this card gaining traction over time as players try to jam it into Commander as a fun way to end the game. A very slow gainer financially.
Elder Spawn	Terrible creature, has been outclassed over the years. RSB.
Eureka	A wild and crazy card that fits right in with a game of Commander, this card has massive casual appeal since it allows you to play all those Eldrazi and planeswalkers from your hand for free! Pretty neat! I believe I have also seen this card in a Legacy deck at some point (can’t remember which exactly) so it could pop up again in eternal formats if Hypergenesis-type decks become good again. A slow gainer, but could spike if featured in a Legacy deck at some point.
Falling Star	Yeah, this card is back when Wizards thought Chaos Orb was cool… Yeah, turns out people don’t like flipping their cards physically while playing with them. Not something you want to pick up for anything, really. RSB.
Field of Dreams	OK, so black gets The Abyss and blue gets… this? Wow, can’t believe blue got the shaft here though I guess sometimes the power needs to shift to other colors (except green, of course – this is back when green was terrible). Avoid, has been outclassed over the years. RSB.
Firestorm Phoenix	We’ve gotten several better phoenixs over the years, avoid. RSB.
Forethought Amulet	The effect is way too narrow to be good, even with future cards added. Also, an upkeep of three mana to keep in play? Yeah, no thanks. RSB.
Gosta Dirk	Legendary, but sadly has been severely outclassed over the years by creature creep. RSB.
Gravity Sphere	Now here’s a card that has potential! Gravity Sphere is great at punishing blue players and similar by taking away flying. This card would fit right in with a tokens deck these days and has the added bonus of always grounding future insane flyers that Wizards decides to print. Also, Tiny Leaders relevant! Keep an eye out on this card moving forward.
Gwendlyn Di Corci	Gwendlyn is… ok. She has decent stats, however the mana cost is atrocious and the ability is sub-par at best. At $25 I don’t see how this becomes more expensive as time goes on and could easily be outclassed by future creature creep in Commander pre-cons and such.
Halfdane	Though neat, this card is strictly a casual-only card as it the effect is decent yet not game breaking enough most of the time. You would have to find a way to give Halfdane other abilities like flying to make it really good. I could see this getting outclassed by similar clone effects, especially for the mana cost, however Halfdane is under $10 and could go up over the years if Shapeshifters become a thing as a tribe.
Hazezon Tamar	Though slow, Hazezon is certainly powerful if you can get him to stick. I believe that he is a slightly worse Avenger of Zendikar that you can play as a general. I think this card is rare enough to maintain the current price but will need a ton of support from future sets if it ever is going to go higher than $45.
Hellfire	Hellfire is really strong however a dangerous card in formats like Commander. Yes, in a mono-black deck this can be incredible but you are risking doing a ton of damage to yourself. Lifelink and lifegain are possibilities, though. At $16 this is one of the cheaper Legends cards and has potential in the future if mass removal continues to be printed at higher converted mana costs.
Imprison	Terrible card, easily outclassed by other black removal. RSB.
In the Eye of Chaos	This card was seeing some play as a sideboard card in Legacy decks as a way to help stabilize after maintaining board control. It is also pretty nice in creature based Commander or Tiny Leaders decks, as it prevents the opponent from easily casting instants and sorceries to catch up. This is one to look out for the in the future, as it has already started climbing up in price and continues to climb as more players become aware of it.
Infinite Authority	Marginal effect for a crazy mana cost, and is an aura to boot. RSB.
Invoke Prejudice	Similar to In the Eye of Chaos, Invoke Prejudice is absurdly powerful in casual mono-blue decks. It makes all their creatures cost double the mana and can easily lock opponents out of the game. Even at a cost of quad-blue, the card has reached heights of $130. It does seem to be stabilizing here, and I don’t expect another huge increase for some time. Expect slow gains for this card.
Jacques le Vert	As a general, this guy is marginal but certainly can be built around with such tools as Assault Formation to get more damage in. $5 is on the cheaper end of Legends cards, and with more support I could see a substantial price increase for Jacques.
Jovial Evil	I guess you could kill someone playing a white weenie deck randomly with this card however the application is super narrow outside of this interaction. RSB.
Knowledge Vault	Not that great – according to ME III this card should have only been an uncommon. RSB.
Kobold Overlord	Thank you Prossh for turning this into a $15 card! Could it go higher? Possibly, but unlikely in the near future unless somehow more Kobold support is printed…
Lady Caleria	Way too expensive for the stats and effect. RSB.
Lady Evangela	One of the recent cards to spike in price, my guess is this was Tiny Leaders speculation. I’m somewhat doubtful as to its application though since removal is prevalent in the format and she is only a 1/2… Not sure I like it at $15.
Land Equilibrium	Wow, this card is the definition of unfun. We will never see a card like this in Magic’s future since it can so easily prevent your opponent from executing their game plan if you’re close on land counts. The card has seen substantial gains over the past few years due to players realizing how strange and power this enchantment can be, though I doubt it will see these types of gains again in the near future.
Life Matrix	Terrible, been outclassed by many other cards. RSB.
Lifeblood	Color hosers really shouldn’t be rare… sigh. This card is powerful but again has narrow applications, so RSB.
Living Plane	This card has some “fun” interactions with ping effects and other cards that can do one damage several times in one turn. We’re not likely to see cards like this again, so like Land Equilibrium this will go up over time though its bound to be a slow gainer (even after seeing a steady increase in price since three years ago). Planar Chaos has shown us that we can get similar effects in the future (Life and Limb).
Livonya Silone	Hmm, this card is actually pretty solid since Legendary lands are played pretty often in Commander. This card allows you to play a red/green general that is decent at blocking and can sometimes get in for some damage. At $5, its pretty cheap but again could be easily outclassed in the future. Still, this is a card to watch and see if the future makes it better or worse.
Mana Matrix	This is a pretty decent artifact in the right deck, and actually makes all of those big, splashy instants and sorceries Wizards has been pumping out somewhat castable! The card’s price has been pretty steady historically, so eventually we will be in for an increase once some really good sorcery / instant support is introduced.
Master of the Hunt	Master of the Wild Hunt is much better. RSB.
Mirror Universe	Cool card with a unique ability. This card has a lot of casual love, which has kept it over $40 for a long time. Similar to Mana Matrix, this card’s price hasn’t moved in some time and could be due for a correction eventually. Though Soul Conduit represents more repeatable switching (and other Commander shenanigans) why not play both in the same deck?
Moat	One of the big daddies of Legends with Tabernacle, Moat is a card that is never going to be going down in price as time goes on. The effect is way too powerful to see print again (expect in crappy creature form) and players know this. It is even somewhat Legacy playable from time to time in the right deck. Expect slow increases over the years.
Mold Demon	So bad, oh so bad… RSB.
Nether Void	Similar to The Abyss, Nether Void is another black enchantment that basically locks the game down after it is cast. Trying to cast spells after this comes down is going to be pretty difficult, and again Wizards’ policies these days are to avoid Staxx cards like this that prevent players from playing the game. The card has seen some growth over the years, since it is occasionally seen in Legacy (or maybe even Vintage) decks however I would guess Commander drives much of the card’s price. Expect slow increases to continue
North Star	Do nothing card, avoid. RSB.
Nova Pentacle	Too expensive for the effect, will never see play even in slow formats like Commander. RSB.
Pixie Queen	Green giving creatures flying is cool. Too bad it costs seven mana is tacked on to a 1/1 boy. Way too overcosted for the effect. RSB.
Planar Gate	Like Mana Matrix but for creatures. This card hasn’t moved much in quite a while so I think it is up for a price correction as players look to play more artifacts that reduce the cost of creature spells.
Quarum Trench Gnomes	This is a really bad color hoser… RSB.
Ragnar	The other Legends card to spike recently, Ragnar could actually be pretty decent in Tiny Leaders since he allows regeneration to happen in a format full of removal. Again, like Lady Evangela the price is pretty overcosted for the stats. I guess in Tiny Leaders you take what you can get. I expect the price to settle down a bit as more cards are introduced to Tiny Leaders (aka power creep happens).
Ramses Overdark	Bad, narrow creature. RSB.
Rapid Fire	Expensive instant with marginal abilities. RSB.
Rasputin Dreamweaver	This guy makes an awesome Commander because he can protect himself and make future cards you play cheaper with the dream counters. Plus, he can add dream counters to himself as well! Rasputin has gone up in price over time due to this and I expect that climb to continue albeit slowly.
Reverberation	Too narrow of an effect for a rare. RSB.
Ring of Immortals	Too narrow of an effect and overcosted. RSB.
Rohgahh of Kher Keep	Combos well with Prossh, which should keep the price steady for a while. I believe the price did spike when the Commander 2013 decks were released but quickly went back down. Certainly a card to keep an eye out for once Prossh himself starts increasing in price – you can bet this card will follow suit!
Spinal Villain	Could be an interesting sideboard option for Tiny Leaders or even Legacy, however being a 1/2 is definitely not that great. This is one of the stronger color hosers in the set and should be watched in case blue creature decks (like Merfolk) start dominating Legacy. However, due to the combo nature of the format I don’t really see that happening.
Spiritual Sanctuary	Very bad card in general, should never have been a rare. RSB.
Storm World	For one mana, I think this card deserves a second look. It’s kind of like The Rack except you can only have one of them in play. For Commander, these types of restrictions don’t matter so that isn’t really a strike against it. For black/red discard decks, this card can do some heavy lifting for only one mana. I think at $5 this is one enchantment to keep an eye out for.
Sword of the Ages	Certainly an interesting effect, though it requires you to kill practically all of your creatures. Decent in 1v1, however in Commander it’s pretty bad and unfortunately that is where this card is relegated. RSB.
The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale	Like our friend Moat, Tabernacle is all $$$ and will continue to be collected over the years as the best card from Legends. A slow, steady gainer for sure but the most solid bet for a card that will maintain value from the Legends set.
Telekinesis	This card has always been around $8, and my thinking is that this offers Tiny Leaders blue decks something to do while they are setting up their combo (or whatever they’re doing). I expect we’ll get better creature removal in blue as the years go on, however the effect is unique and might see an uptick in price if Tiny Leaders gains traction.
Tetsuo Umezawa	Again, a Tiny Leaders increase that happened recently has made this card go from $22 to $40 this year. Unlike other Tiny Leaders specs from this set, Tetsuo is actually somewhat powerful in that he can kill tapped creatures every turn like Royal Assassin. Yet, I’m not sure it can go higher than $40 for the time being, and could even start dropping in price if more Tiny Commanders are printed in Grixis colors.
Thunder Spirit	The inspiration for Thunder Totem, we have a similar card in Sky Spirit that is only white mana. I wouldn’t expect Thunder Spirit to be breaking any formats if Sky Spirit is only $0.20.
Tuknir Deathlock	Hmm, a flying 2/2 in G/R? Interesting… and it can also pump creatures +2/+2 until end of turn? Yes, this is interesting… The question is though, is it good enough for Commander? Surprisingly, that answer could be yes since this card is so weird. At $3.50, this is one of the cheaper cards from the set and the effect is definitely unique for G/R.
Typhoon	Pretty bad in eternal formats, even as a color hoser. RSB.
Ur-Drago	Really bad, overcosted creature. RSB.
Willow Satyr	This card is pretty cool and offers green a Control Magic effect that is rarely seen in that slice of the color pie. In Commander, this card is great because you can randomly steal other people’s generals since you’re playing green and no one would expect this! At $15 that is pretty cheap for a powerful effect.
Wood Elemental	Utter garbage. I believe that this card is so bad that it actually has made several official Top 10 Worst Magic Cards lists. RSB to the max.

Conclusions

OK, based on that wall of text what are my top picks from Legends that might be undervalued? They are:

All of these cards are in the $5-$15 range, which is fairly cheap for Reserve List cards, and will never be printed again. They all have decent effects that get better over time as more cards are introduced to the card pool. They all interact fairly well in Commander, and though aren’t the best at what they do anymore they still provide extra ‘similar effect’ copies of cards that you can use if you’re looking for more ways to create redundancy in a deck.

Of course, we all know what the solid cards of Legends are (just check out the higher priced cards at the MTGPrice page for top Legends cards) but what are you guys tracking from Legends, if anything? Are there any undervalued reserve list cards that I just glossed over that you might think have potential? Let me know what you think in the comments!

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