Tag Archives: mtg prices

PROTRADER: Analyzing Standard as Battle for Zendikar Nears

Rotation is nearly upon us, and the spoilers are coming in hot and heavy. Full-art basics. New, fetchable dual lands. Full-art fetches and Shocks. Crazy, mythic Eldrazi. This set is going to have it all, and for the first time in my life, I plan on buying a case of the new goodies.

It’s true that we’ve seen a lot of things out of Battle for Zendikar. But there is one thing I haven’t seen in droves yet: Standard-playable cards.

Sure, Gideon is incredibly strong and will be played, and the lands of course will be good. But getting to 10 mana for Ulamog with what we have available doesn’t seem great, and while casting See the Unwritten into huge guys will almost certainly be a deck, I’m not seeing a ton of good ramp options to go along with Shaman of Forgotten Ways and Rattleclaw Mystic. Of course, those are two good options to start, so it won’t take much more to make it viable, but it’s worth mentioning that we’re not there yet.

Now, I know most of the set hasn’t been spoiled, so it’s a little early to start saying it’s not going to drastically shake up the format, because with so many cards leaving ,there’s no doubt that it will happen.

Still, given that Battle for Zendikar has all the makings of a set that will quickly become the best-selling of all time, I feel most comfortable looking at the current Standard format as a sign of things to come, rather than looking forward to Zendikar to being the driver in that equation.

With that in mind, looking ahead to next season begins with looking back. In this case, to the World Championship, where the world’s 24 best players met and battled it out (congratulations to Seth Manfield for winning, by the way). The World Championship was fun to watch, and I believe it’s a good place to start when we evaluate the decks that will survive rotation.

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PROTRADER: Rotation Pickups – Theros Edition

I guess it’s that time again. By “that time,” of course, I don’t mean it’s rotation, because we’re still a bit away from that, but I mean it is time to look ahead to the phasing out of Theros block!

You may wonder why I’ve been talking so much about rotation, and it’s because at this point of the year, the most important thing isn’t what new cards are dominating Standard (hello, Hangarback Walker) or what players are competing at the World Championship (which takes place next week at PAX Prime and is going to be awesome). Rather, it’s about looking ahead. There are a lot of people worrying about current events, and a lot fewer people worrying about what the landscape is going to look like two months from now.

And where others are looking away, we’re looing deeper. I’ve written in-depth over the past month or so about the way I see things progressing over the next few weeks and months in Standard, and considering that’s the place to put most of your money right now, I feel that’s justified.

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Grinder Finance – Keeping your Collection Liquid

I think this is an article that’s been written before, but I doubt everyone has read it, so I’m going to write one.  An important part of Magic financial fitness is keeping a liquid collection.  What does that mean?

Well, a Magic collection is a lot like a plant.  If you give it plenty of sun and water it you’ll a pile of soggy unplayable cards, so not in that way.  But it’s similar in the fact that with a minimal amount of maintenance it will grow.  I assume many of the people that read my articles are not urban gardeners like myself, but there are a few things you can do to grow much fuller herbs.  If you give the herb sun and water it, it will grow just fine.  If you periodically fertilize and prune the plant it will grow fuller and faster.  Pruning a plant promotes new growth and a heartier plant.  Your collection acts the same way.

It’s pretty much impossible to grow a collection without adding more money into it, but it is possible to re-appropriate that value to help it grow.  It’s important to notice trends and to fertilize properly and prune properly.   Maybe I’m talking too much in abstract so let’s use some real world examples from my collection.

windswept_heath_by_fooyee-d813f9a

I’ve been pruning my collection of Magic Origins cards that have been popular in Standard.  The last few weeks have seen many different decks winning top-tier tournaments and have been affecting prices.  I play a lot of Magic so obviously I’m not looking to sell pieces of the deck I play but there are cards outside of that I own that I don’t need.  In the last month I’ve sold Demonic Pacts, Woodland Bellower, Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy, Ghostfire Blade, Thopter Spynetwork, and Ensoul Artifact.

I’ve also been “fertilizing” my collection with cards that haven’t become a “thing” yet.  I got Ghostfire Blades and Abbot of Keral Keep right before they became super popular.  Right now I’ve been getting cards that are cheap because cheap cards can become expensive easily but expensive cards don’t get more expensive very easily.  Especially with how much Magic Origins product is being opened.

Dromoka's Command by James Ryman
Dromoka’s Command by James Ryman

As this is now the weekend after a five-Abzan Top 8, I would recommend watching the movement of the staples for this deck.  It’s going to be probably the last chance you have to trade away Fleecemane Lion for literal anything.  It’s fair trade value is about $2 and if you can flip it into any of the painlands from Magic Origins it is really hard to go wrong.  Dromoka’s Command is another card that is surging despite its recent reprinting in the Magic Origins clash pack.  Fellow MTGPrice writer Derek Madlem suggested last week that Dromoka’s Command was a criminally underpriced card.  Given its play last weekend, I’d say he was right.  Dromoka’s Command will also survive an extra rotation as Dragons of Tarkir will not rotate with the rest of the block.

Mantis Rider by Johann Bodin
Mantis Rider by Johann Bodin

But do you know what I really like doing now? Grabbing all of your Khans of Tarkir staples.  There really isn’t a better time to  buy Rattleclaw Mystic, Mantis Rider, Savage Knuckleblade, Siege Rhino, or Sorin, Solemn Visitor.  We’ve already seen an uptick of Sorin in response to the abundant UR Thopters decks and Monored decks.  Any card that gives your whole team lifelink and is on the same team as Siege Rhino can be good against aggressive decks. Mantis Rider’s price tag of $1 is a pretty safe bet.  After Battle For Zendikar enters the fray we will be losing our only two-mana spell that can kill Mantis Rider.  Surprisingly, Mantis Rider is pretty durable when your options for removal are Ultimate Price, Swift Reckoning, Valorous Stance, and Roast.  He can still die to Draconic Roar and Foul-Tongue Invocation but that’s a pretty small subset of available spells.

What else do we prune?  Card of the week syndrome can hit hard and fast.

puca

Pucatrade has a resource that includes the most popular trades of the last day, week, month, year.  Things that get popular quick and fall off are the best choices for a quick pruning.  You know what we don’t need to hold with impeding Eldrazi? $2 Sphinx’s Tutelages.  No matter how good the deck is now it is unlikely two colorless cards will “share a color.”

Next on our list? Keep an eye on new saplings waiting to be planted.  Some cards that pre-ordered at the beginning for a lot are coming down to more reasonable price ranges.

Daily_Double_-28

While there is nothing I’m advocating as a buy today, there are a few cards I would keep a sharp eye on.

Sword of the Animist by Daniel Ljunggren
Sword of the Animist by Daniel Ljunggren

Sword of the Animist is card that preordered for $5 after being touted by StarCity Games’ Ben Bleisweiss as one of the best cards in the set but now is down to half of that number.  Casual appeal should keep this from ever hitting true bulk but with the confirmation of Landfall as a returning mechanic in Battle for Zendikar, this has some legs.  It may have some more room to drop but as soon as it turns the corner is the time to buy in.

Harbinger of the Tides by Svetlin Velinov
Harbinger of the Tides by Svetlin Velinov

Harbinger of the Tides was another hyped card.  If we are expecting Eldrazi that are large and in charge in the next set I don’t see how this guy doesn’t fit into the resistance.  He’s a reasonable body attached to a powerful effect versus cards that might have been cheating into play with See the Unwritten.  He also still does a decent job of unsummoning all of the Dragonlords except Dromoka at instant speed.  He also may have some space to drop but when we approach $1 there is no real risk in buying in.

Surrak the Huntcaller by Wesley Burt
Surrak the Huntcaller by Wesley Burt

What does Surrak, the Huntcaller do? A ton really.  He trades with Siege Rhino, he triggers ferocious for See the Unwritten and gives haste to whatever huge fatty you put into play with it.  The art of this card may be more telling of his future with Dragonlord Atarka emerging from his shadow to fly in for a kill.

In conclusion, water your collection and leave it out in the sun if you think it’s a plant.  Otherwise keep an eye on trends and make sure to move parts of your collection you aren’t using to free up money to invest in parts you will need later down the line.

 

 

PROTRADER: Leverage the Data

Knowledge is Power.

This cliché is entirely overused, yet it still fits the description of today’s article perfectly. Having data – especially from reliable and impactful sources – can be a significant boon to one’s investment strategy. Imagine if we had something as simple as the size of print runs of Magic’s recent sets. Such data would drive better price predictions when assessing supply and demand.

Of course this isn’t a realistic endeavor. Wizards of the Coast keeps this sort of data very close to their chests, and for good reason.

Speaking of being protective of valuable data, let me kick off this column with a story.

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ProTrader: Magic doesn’t have to be expensive.