Tag Archives: Standard

Danny Brown, ProTrader

PROTRADER: A Farewell to Khans

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December: the time of year when players start to get bored of the new Draft format. Battle for Zendikar is a deeper set than most, and I’ve fired more than 30 events in the last couple months, but it’s starting to lose its luster. Part of the problem is that the set doesn’t really have a ton of value in it. With the rotation of Khans of Tarkir and Fate Reforged, however, we may see that change.

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Jared Yost, The Gilded Goblin

Standard Deck Value Check

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There seems to be an uproar this Battle for Zendikar standard season with the price of Standard decks. Never before since the original Zendikar block have Standard decks reached heights bordering on $1,000 – at least during the first few weeks of the set’s release. However, the price of decks has settled back down even though everyone is playing three or four colors since we have fetchlands and fetchable duals in Standard.

Looking at the price of top decks of the format, we are safely now below the $1,000 mark.

Price of Standard Decks as of 11/21/2015

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Unfortunately, many of the decks are still over $500 with two of them (Dark Jeskai and GW Megamorph) even bordering on the $700 mark which I still think is way too expensive for Standard. As others on MTGPrice have pointed out, this boils down to a combination of fetchland reprints and the last Magic Core Set being released. The reason that the Core Set is important here is because it is released right in the middle of the summer, which is a known downtime when it comes to players purchasing cards, which lead to the price of Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy reaching the lofty heights of $80 and up for a short time.

Now as we approach December, the price of Standard decks are starting to settle down again but they still feel expensive to me. Where are the current values of the decks now?

Abzan Aggro

Since Abzan Aggro now contains a full playset of Gideon, Ally of Zendikar, we know who the main offender is here. Also, Den Protector is still around $13, which is lower than its previous high of $16 but still very expensive for a rare. Its unusual for rares to maintain a price this high for very long – I mean, even Snapcaster Mage wasn’t much more than $20 during its lifetime in Standard, and it was one of the more dominant cards of the format. I’d keep a close eye on Den Protector since Dragons of Tarkir will be Standard legal for longer than Khans and Fate, so Den Protector might break $20 if it continues to be a strong inclusion in green strategies moving forward.

Hangarback Walker is also a good chunk of the price, even with an event deck printing to help get copies out there. I feel like we’re going to encounter another Thragtusk situation here, since even that had an event deck printing and still reached highs of almost $30 during Innistrad Standard. Funny how some of these situations mirror Innistrad Standard so closely, but I guess history is doomed to repeat itself until we are fully into the new Standard rotation schedule that Wizards has planned out for all future sets.

Ultimately though, the largest chunk of the deck’s value is of course from the lands. Playing twelve fetchlands, four manlands, and a few of the new battle lands, that is close to $250 tied up just in the mana base. This isn’t a good thing, definitely not from a player’s perspective, and I’m hoping it is going to get better once the fetchlands rotate from Standard.

Dark Jeskai

Jace, Vrn’s Prodigy takes up a huge chunk of the deck where four of them will cost you almost as much as the fetchlands in the deck priced together. It is pretty funny of me to say this, but I would much rather trade four Jaces for twelve fetchlands than I would ever want to keep holding four Jaces. I think he is going to drop like a rock when he rotates from Standard, and many players are going to be (rightfully) pissed off when he starts plummeting in price back down to the $20 or lower range again. I realize that Jace has plenty of eternal appeal in Modern through Legacy, but do you really think that is going to make his price continue to command $30 or higher upon rotation? I’m not that confidant, especially when I know fetchlands have proven to be very lucrative in the past.

Speaking of fetchlands, I think the ones in this deck in particular (Bloodstained Mire, Flooded Strand, and Polluted Delta) are still pretty lowly priced considering how the Zendikar fetches ultimately ended up in the $50 and higher range once Modern became a thing, and blue ones reached heights so high that people’s heads were spinning for a while. Do I think we’re going to see $80 to $100 (or above) Polluted Deltas eventually? No. But I do think they have a great chance of hitting at least $50 during the height of Modern seasons in the future. Not this Modern season of course, but a few years down the line you’ll be very happy that you stocked up on blue lands in particular once Modern ultimately becomes the eternal format of choice.

Esper Tokens / Esper Control / Esper Dragons

      

Again, we have Hangarback Walker, Gideon, and the manabase taking up the majority cost of the Esper Tokens deck too. The cards are the same, just assembled in a different order alongside of choices like Secure the Wastes and Wingmate Roc to help generate creatures as the game goes on. I expect Gideon to keep dropping until around February / March of next year, once Oath is released and players have their eyes on new cards coming out from the new set. If he still continues to be a powerhouse, he could retain a high price due to the lower power curve of Battle for Zendikar overall but even then I still think he is due for  drop as we proceed through the winter doldrums.

Besides lands, Little Jace and Ugin are the big offenders from Esper Control, along with Dragonlord Ojutai for those decks that may maindeck him or bring him in from the sideboard for certain matchups. Ugin is interesting to me – his price isn’t going down any time soon, yet I can’t help but feel he will take a hit in some way upon rotation even though he is one of most popular casual planeswalkers to come along since the release of Nicol Bolas, Planeswalker – you know, being Bolas’ counterpart and all. I like holding onto extra copies but we all know that the even deck / supplemental product printing for Ugin is going to be a matter of when, not if. I think it is best for extra copies be moved, especially since we are in the hype of R/G Ramp that is jamming a full playset within the main deck.

Finally, Esper Dragons is definitely packing the Dragonlord Ojutai’s, along with again Little Jace and the lands to accompany the deck. The pieces are again just reconfigured to make the maximum use of the “dragons matter” spells from Dragons of Tarkir, which we’ve all seen are excellent when used to their full effect. Dragonlord Ojutai is without a doubt tanking upon Dragons of Tarkir rotation but could see a huge spike when Khans and Fate Reforged rotate, since he is one the powerhouses that is remaining to help the Esper Dragons deck continue to be a force in the metagame. Keep a close eye on him and sell into any hype he might see when Khans/Fate Reforged rotate in the upcoming months.

GW Megamorph

     

We have a mix of high value cards here in the form of Den Protector, Deathmist Raptor, Nissa, Vastwood Seer, Dromoka’s Command, and Gideon, Ally of Zendikar (along with of course lands, but at this point I believe that goes without saying). Interestingly enough, none of these cards are rotating at the next rotation schedule, so I think GW Megamorph should be heavily watched to see where the core pieces of the deck are going in price since fetchlands are going to rotate soon too. I wonder especially if Dromoka’s Command is in for another spike – copies were super cheap after the event deck printing, and they have rebounded nicely over the past few months as Dragons of Tarkir is drying up and players have been focused on the expedition lottery in Battle for Zendikar.

I guess what I’m saying is that GW Megamorph is still going to be a huge force in the metagame even once rotation happens, so I expect at least one, if not several, of the cards to experience spikes (at least in the short term) after Khans and Fate rotate.

4C Rally

Finally, the last somewhat expensive deck is 4C Rally which makes use of Collected Company and Rally the Ancestors to defeat opponents by overwhelming them with creature value. Little Jace again is a huge offender in this deck and even Collected Company is still commanding an $8 price tag – certainly better than the$16+ it was once it exploded into Modern, though still one of the more expensive pieces of the deck. I definitely think it can potentially be higher priced once rotation happens. Collected Company is the card to watch from this deck, as Modern demand in addition to Standard demand could propel it past $10 again despite the event deck printing.

Wrapping Up

     

All in all, yes – Standard is expensive but at least we’re not shelling out $1,000 for decks at this point and they are only going to get cheaper once the fetchlands rotate from Standard. Keep an eye on all Dragons of Tarkir and Magic Origins staples, as the upcoming rotation will not be affecting them negatively in price and several of the current staples will probably see significant gains once the new metagame shakes out. As always, I love to hear your thoughts in the comments so let me know what you think about my analysis and what your own has been since Battle for Zendikar has been released.

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PROTRADER: Breaking Down Standard

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We are currently facing one of the most expensive Standard formats in Magic‘s history. As many writers1 have already pointed out, this is largely the fault of fetch lands, which have risen in both price and amount of use.

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Jared Yost, The Gilded Goblin

Battle for Zendikar Standard Possibilities

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Let’s take a look at some decks this weekend from Grand Prix Indianapolis that are somewhat different than what we’ve seen before. I like taking a look at decks that are up-and-comers, and taking a look at the decks that made the Top 8 of a Grand Prix are definitely worth considering to see if they are the newest decks on the block that will continue to see success in Standard.

Links to the decklists:

http://magic.wizards.com/en/events/coverage/gpind15/top-8-decklists-2015-11-01

Bant Hardened Scales

So it looks like there is now a legitimate reason that this former bulk rare has reached new heights. While the previous high of $5.50 has now lowered to $4, we might see another spike of Hardened Scales in the near future based on last weekend’s performance. Of course, it is going to be very short lived since HS is from Khans of Tarkir, which is coming closer and closer to rotation. I would advise that any extra copies be sold into the hype – and then later on, when Hardened Scales rotates, you can pick up copies again because this card is mini Doubling Season and I expect it to have casual appeal for a long time.

Other cards from the deck worth talking about are Managorger Hydra and Avatar of the Resolute, along with Dromoka’s Command and Hangarback Walker. The position of these cards will be different moving forward because they all survive the next rotation when Shadows over Innistrad is released. Now granted, I highly doubt we’re getting anything insane with this next return to Innistrad like Snapcaster Mage or Liliana of the Veil but I think we’re definitely getting a Werewolf legendary creature (since last time Wizards admitted that was one of their biggest mistakes with Innistrad and Dark Ascension was not having a R/G legendary werewolf to complete the tribe like Olivia Voldaren did for Vampires and Grimgrin, Corpse-Born did for Zombies) and other green components that the deck could consider.

Anyways, with Managorger Hydra and Avatar of the Resolute, I’m not sure what their position will be after rotation. They both feel like they only fit into a deck where Hardened Scales is the key card, and with HS rotating I’m not sure if they will be able to continue to make the cut. Hopefully though, Shadows will introduce something that also plays nicely with +1/+1 counters since that seems to be a thing that Wizards supports pretty heavily these days – especially in terms of Limited environments where plenty of set mechanics revolve around +1/+1 counters. I am seeing that both cards are trending upwards, and a continuation of Hardened Scales success with the potential printing of another static effect that plays well with +1/+1 counters may create a bright future for these cards. Hold on to any copies you might have, with possibly stocking extra copies of Avatar since it is the cheaper of the two options (both dollar-wise and mana cost-wise).

Dromoka’s Command Hangarback Walker will continue to be major Standard players. I can’t fault anyone for picking up copies now, so if you’re going to do so I would do it sooner rather than later. The future price of both hards have been hindered by reprints in supplemental products, however I think most of us remember that this did nothing in the long run to reduce the price of Thragtusk. I think they are both fine speculation targets, with preference going to Walker over Command since colorless will fit into more decks than multicolored. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised to see Hangarback Walker back at $20 or higher after Khans and Fate Reforged rotate from Standard. I’ll definitely be keeping close tabs on these cards to determine what rotation will look like for key role players in the new Standard schedule. It makes me wonder if baby Jace will continue the upward trend past $100…

Esper Tokens

This deck seems to be rather new to the scene, as opposed to other decks like Hardened Scales being around but not seeing as many Top 8 results as the other Standard archetypes like Jeskai Black. The key cards to the Esper Tokens strategy are Secure the Wastes, Sorin, Solemn Visitor, and Gideon, Ally of Zendikar. Knight of the White Orchid is an interesting inclusion from Origins that we should watch moving forward, since it will survive rotation along with Secure the Wastes and Gideon. Finally, last mentions from this strategy include Painful Truths and Shambling Vent, with Vent seeing a full four copies being played in the manabase.

Speaking of which, the Battle for Zendikar manlands are super cheap right now. With Shambling Vent at $6 and Lumbering Falls at a paltry $2.50, I don’t think you can go wrong by starting to stock up on extra copies of these cards. We haven’t reached the low point of BFZ cards yet since set redemption will need to occur, however man lands have generally been very successful in Standard decks past due to their ability to both fix mana and become creatures in a pinch when needed. I think that the five man lands throughout the BFZ block will all see Standard play in one form or another in their Standard lives, so the adage of “invest in real estate” really rings true to me for this cycle.

Unfortunately, cards like Wingmate Roc and Sorin aren’t worth picking up since their rotation is coming up in a short five months. We might see some more movement in these cards from the GP results, so my advice here is to sell into any hype that the cards might see since the coming months are only going to lower the price of these mythics until Khans rotation.

R/G Landfall

     

Finally! We have a deck that is based off Battle for Zendikar rather than the other way around! Oh wait, there are still only nine cards in the deck that are actually from BFZ… Hey, I guess we need to start somewhere, right?

I have to admit that I did not see Snapping Gnarlid actually having Standard potential. However, I’ve been proven wrong in this case, as both Scythe Leopard and Snapping Gnarlid were key components of the deck that was able to propel it into the Top 8 of the Grand Prix. Outside of the Landfall creatures, the deck focuses on pump spells and haste creatures in order to finish out games quickly. This deck is truly a Stompy deck to the core – play some creatures, attack with them, and pump them up as much as possible for maximum damage. It has a much different feel than Atarka Red because rather than burn spells the deck focuses on cheap creatures with pump effects. It’s actually a very interesting deck that rewards players for being able to maximize the number of triggers they can make through Landfall and Prowess, with pump spells to push in the last bit of damage.

     

Unfortunately, many of the deck’s pump spells are rotating when Shadows over Innistrad is released, with the key cards Become Immense and Temur Battle Rage among them. I don’t think I would expect this deck to survive rotation unless Oath and Shadows give use something that is similar. You never know though, Steppe Lynx was pretty awesome when it was in Standard, and I expect Wizards to push Landfall even more in Oath. One way or another the Landfall creatures are sticking around. The issue is what type of pump spells are released with the next sets, so I’ll be keeping a close eye on new pump spells due to the explosive nature of Landfall aggro decks.

These three decks were the most interesting, at least to me, of the Top 8 of GP Indianapolis. I’m starting to get excited again for the future directions that Standard could take! Thanks for reading and let me know in the comments what decks you’ve seen take off since BFZ was introduced to Standard.