PROTRADER: Occam’s Razor and the Collectible Renaissance

I have a feeling many MTG finance eyes will be on three unrelated events: Shadows Over Innistrad’s release, banned and restricted updates for Modern specifically, and the gradual spoiling of Eternal Masters.  Each of these separate events will have a very profound impact on card prices, and it’s likely many writers will cover each topic at length.  I will most certainly be chiming in with Modern and Legacy impact once we have more information.

As for Standard – I tried to place a few small bets, picking up a handful of creature lands.  After seeing the new rare land cycle in Shadows Over Innistrad, however, I fear I placed my money on a slower horse.  The Battle Lands have all been rising steadily these last few weeks, and I can only hope the creature lands also find a home in Standard.  Until then I’ll remain comforted by the fact that these remain near their bottom and should not drop lower in price.

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But there’s one trend that is gradually unfolding, which I think will have a profound impact on the MTG market.  Most importantly of all, I believe this trend is occurring so slowly and so out of focus that it’s happening under the radar.  People would only notice this trend if they paid extremely close attention to this market, and not many do.

Interested?  Here’s the good news – I do pay attention.  And this week I’ll share my most recent observations along with some future predictions that can help you make some well-placed and timely investments in MTG.

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PROTRADER: More Recalibrating or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Goldnight Castigator

AUTHOR’S NOTE: We are really jumping in on the deep end this week. Be ready!

I’m gonna start by stating something that really took me a while to realize that you may or may not have noticed. Magic, just like every other thing involving multiple parts, has a formula. It has since Alpha, and it continues through Shadows over Innistrad. Now, that formula has certainly changed, both in the short and long term sensabilities, and the definitions of what those pieces are have expanded, but that’s just part of organic growth. Before I get too much further, let me show you what I mean:

  • Every large Magic set needs a Wrath of God (“Destroy all Creatures”) effect.
  • Every large Magic set wants between 2 and 4 Planeswalkers.
  • Every large Magic set needs a degree of mana fixing, typically with dual land cycles at more than one rarity.
  • Every large Magic set needs to have some form of the most basic utility spells (Disenchant, Shatter effects) at Common or Uncommon.

Do you see what I’m trying to get at? Even though Alpha iconics like Wrath of God and Birds of Paradise are no longer themselves part of the formula, their legacy is. Now, this is being written before the rest of the set is dumped on Friday, but we’ve already seen some of the new underclassmen for these staple effects.

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Mythic Predictions for Shadows over Innistrad

The full spoiler is (probably) going to land today but since I have to write ahead of time, I always feel a little caught.

I want to go over the previewed mythics and make some predictions, not about how much they are now, but where they will be in about a month.

As always, I don’t think you should pre-order anything, as it’s almost always a better plan to wait a little for the hype to die down. (I’m looking straight at you, $15 Thing in the Ice!)

Sorin, Grim Nemesis

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I like that he lets you draw and punish all at the same time. It’s pretty awesome to boost yourself up and then push others down. However, he can only deal with one problem at a time, as compared to other good six-mana planeswalkers, like Chandra, Flamecaller or Elspeth, Sun’s Champion. I think he’s got really great potential for top-of-the-library shenanigans, like Worldly Tutor for Draco. At his cost, and with these abilities, I wouldn’t expect him to be much more than $15.

Jace, Unraveler of Secrets

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This plus ability is amazingly good. It’s a Scry 1 short of a card too good for Modern! You dig fast and have much more control over getting what you need. This is a pretty mediocre Commander card, until you get to the ultimate, which is the epitome of what every annoying blue deck wants to do. Five mana is not unreasonable, and he does get to come down and bounce a problem away, at which point the control player starts plusing away. I can see this getting some play, though it would be so much better with a four-mana wrath effect to play the turn before playing this. I think his price will bounce between $10 at first and bounce up to $20-$25 when the control deck appears.

Nahiri, the Harbinger 

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Now we are talking. Four mana and can come down, solve a problem, and then start drawing/enabling Madness effects. Plus, it’s totally reasonable to play Nahiri, exile something, let her get attacked, then play another Nahiri. Multiples can also get discarded away easily with the plus ability. Exiling the target is super-relevant as well. I like Nahiri, though her ultimate is pretty uninspiring. It’s kind of a rough time to be enemy-colored, though, and I think that will keep her around $15-$20.

Arlinn Kord 

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Oh the flavor. I love the flavor on this card, and I think she’s much stronger than she appears. You have such flexibility on what you can do with her, and that’s key. You can make a creature big, vigilant, and hasty (so it can defend her) or you can make a token and flip. Then it’s time to be offensive or defensive and as long as you can plan a turn or two ahead, she’s going to dominate. Plus, at four mana in the ramp colors, she’s frequently going to be on the board a turn early. I think she’s going to see a lot of play in decks that want to play a lot of creatures, and likely stabilize in the $10-$15 range.

The Gitrog Monster 

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Conveniently, Groundskeeper is in this set too, and while I love the late game of sacrificing extra lands to draw cards, he’s going to make you jump (hop?) through too many hoops. I don’t think this will stay over $5 for long.

Archangel Avacyn 

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Flash, Flying, Vigilance is already amazing. Transforming her is going to be all up to you and your deck, though, because your opponent is going to kill her first. If your deck is full of cheap, disposable creatures, they will also die when she flips, and she’s got no protection. I love her flavor, and it’s a great story card, but I don’t see right now what she is besides the front side. Casual appeal will keep her foils high, but she won’t break $10.

Behold the Beyond – Bulk mythic. Just look at how much play Diabolic Revelation gets.

Geralf’s Masterpiece – Being able to bring it back might be relevant, but so few decks will want to pay this cost. Bulk.

Mindwrack Demon – Four mana for a 4/5 flying trample would seems to be worth the risk of four life a turn. It’s a risk, but it has potential as a curve-topper in an aggressive deck. I have a hard time believing this stays at more than a buck or two, though.

Seasons Past – We’ve had other mega-Regrowth effects before, like Praetor’s Counsel, and that was never very expensive. This will likely stay just above $2.

Wolf of Devil’s Breach – As a Madness enabler, this is rather outstanding. You can’t pitch the card at your opponent directly, but there are going to be decks that use this to great effect. The Wolf is Fiery Temper‘s best friend, distributing three damage twice for three mana. I don’t think every deck wants this, but I do think enough will to keep it around $3-$5.

Ulvenwald Hydra – A fixed Primeval Titan? Really?? I’m going to have to think about this for Standard but I can tell you that this is going to be a chase Commander card.  Finding one land is unexciting in some decks, and Gaea’s Cradle-broken in others. Nonfoils won’t be more than $5, but I would expect foils to be in the $20 range.

Goldnight Castigator – This is a bad card. This is as all-in as you can get, four hasty power that if you attack, effectively halves your life total. Don’t play this. Ever. Bulk.

Relentless Dead 

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If you need something to sacrifice for value, here you go. It’s efficient, resilient, and entering a phase of Magic where exile spells are incredibly common. No, really, I mean it. We’ve got more exile effects than I ever can recall at once and this poor guy is going to take the brunt of it. I love the art, recalling Endless Ranks of the Dead, and while I want this to be good…he’s going to be steady at about $3.

Olivia, Mobilized for War

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One thing the last round of Madness cards taught us is that you want to have free discard effects, such as Psychatog. Olivia isn’t quite free, as you are playing a creature, but the potential is there. A 3/3 flying for three mana is an excellent starting point too. She will hold at about $5, because extra copies of her just get used as fuel for the next creature you play.

Sigarda, Heron’s Grace – Please don’t play this thinking she has hexproof. She’s got a big target on her, and while I like her ability to play a long game and grow a quick army, I don’t think she will stay at more than a dollar or two.

Descend upon the Sinful – This is a powerful card, but it’s got a high mana cost. The tools are there for a classic control deck, between this and Planar Outburst. Wiping the board and having a creature left behind is pretty amazing, though. I like this a lot as a Commander card too, as it’s a strict upgrade over Final Judgement, a card that doesn’t see enough play. This will not break $5, though.

Startled Awake – How much do we love mill cards! This has its own built-in recursion, but it’s slow and imperfect. Skulk is not unblockability, a 1/1 or any zero-power creature can block it, ruining your nefarious plan. This is going to win a lot of Limited games and not much else, though I can see the foils of this going for a high premium. This will struggle to not be bulk.

Five Shadows over Innistrad cards to get excited for

It’s that time again, and it doesn’t feel like it’s been that long since Oath of the Gatewatch, does it? Just yesterday, we were gushing about the new Eldrazi cards and going wild over the broken state they left Modern in, a problem I fully expect to be remedied with a banlist update next week.

Okay, with that in mind maybe Oath of the Gatewatch, while hugely impactful on Magic’s history, wasn’t actually that great.

Luckily, Shadows over Innistrad is.

This set looks poised to deliver in a way that Battle for Zendikar and to a lesser extent Oath of the Gatewatch did not. While the BFZ draft format was fun (and got much better with Oath), the block itself didn’t blow everyone away in the traditional sense.

Still, the introduction of the “sixth color,” or in reality colorless mana, was a touchstone moment in Magic’s history, and we’re going to see the repercussions of it for years to come. Whether it’s with a return of Eldrazi or something else, or maybe just making colorless evergreen, Oath will forever change the future of Magic thanks to that step.

Which brings us to Shadows over Innistrad, which must follow up on that set. And while it’s  not going to be hard to break Modern “less” than Oath did, the truth is Shadows isn’t just living up to the shadow of Eldrazi – it has to live up to the storied history Innistrad brought to the game.

Namely, that means an incredible Limited format — certainly one of my personal top three since I started in 2009, and for many a top three overall — as well as a pretty diverse Standard meta that despite the crazy powerful cards in Liliana of the Veil and Delver of Secrets was actually fairly diverse with some fun interactions.

All that said, is there any way Shadows over Innistrad can live up to the hype?

I’m optimistic. Here’s why.

Arlinn Kord

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Werewolves are back, baby!

I know a lot of people didn’t love what Werewolves did to a draft. And having watched the Top 4 of a Team Limited event have to deal with a double-faced card (Chandra, Fire of Kaladesh), I can understand the trepidation. They give away colors, show power picks and generally just kind of mess up a draft environment.

That said, the mechanic works great once you actually sit down to play. The tension between flipping and re-flipping cards in Limited leads to really interesting games, not to mention how it oozes flavor.

Arlinn Kord is one of those. Our first Werewolf planeswalker, this is the most fun you can having flipping walkers since Garruk Relentless. And the power level might even be higher than that format staple version of Garruk. Arlinn hits the battlefield ready to pump a member of your team to really get in there, or comes down after a board wipe to refill your board and create a blocker to protect herself for the flipside.

And the flipside is nuts. Keeping with the aggressive theme, she can get your entire team in there, or play the quintessential midrange game, gunning down an opponent’s creature and then flipping back to make more wolves. This is about everything a midrange deck could want in a planeswalker, and it happens to come with an ultimate that can end the game when needed.

Olivia, Mobilized for War

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Speaking of attacking, very few cards enable that as well as our new, slimmed-down Olivia Voldaren. Whereas the original Olivia was a powerful late-game card that took over by itself, new Olivia brings her friends to the party and makes sure they’re ready to rumble.

Not only does she turn excess lands into haste and pumps — a pretty great way to mitigate flood in aggressive decks — but the real benefit comes from this being an incredible Madness enabler. While some of the other Madness enablers we’ve seen require a mana cost to use, Olivia simply asks that you cast a creature anywhere on your curve. This means you can tailor the cards you’re casting to the cards you’re pitching to Madness, and that means the value is undeniable. Whether it’s a sweet creature like Asylum Visitor or “just” a removal spell like Fiery Temper (and let’s be honest, it’s gonna be Fiery Temper), Olivia does exactly what you want a 3-drop to do.

And, hey, Vampires.

Relentless Dead

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One of my favorite things about the original Innistrad was the tribal theme. I’m really glad they kept that around for our return to the plane, because the fact that there was just enough payoff in Draft to go mono-spirits or werewolves added a lot of fun to that format. After all, linear decks are usually fun to build and play — not to mention they are a great guidepost for newer players — but when they’re simply another deck rather than all the decks like in Lorwyn block, it adds a nice touch to Limited.

In Constructed, I certainly had fun playing Werewolves tribal because Full Moon’s Rise was awesome and Immerwolf was absurd, but the rest of the tribes had more success than my FNM deck. Namely, Spirits and Zombies did well, and Zombies in particular was a great deck to have in Standard because it was just so flavorful.

I know not everyone cards about flavor, but I think Magic is in a great place if the think the Zombie deck does is exactly what the average person would answer if you asked them what a Zombie deck should do. Diregraf Captain was a boss, and with Gravecrawler and Geralf’s Messenger the zombies just never stayed dead.

Relentless Dead is the perfect continuation of that. Not only does it reference the art of Endless Ranks of the Dead in an awesome throwback, but it’s a great card on its own. It’s a good 2-drop that’s hard to block and keeps the pressure coming, but it’s also an incredible insurance plan against board wipes or, you know, combat in general. This time around, the dead aren’t just endless — they’re relentless as well.

Drownyard Temple and Warped Landscape

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These aren’t the most flashy cards in the set, but I truly believe they’re some of the better designed ones. It shows that even after nearly 25 years of making lands, Wizards can still deliver new designs that make for fun gameplay.

The beauty is in the simplicity. Look at Landscape; it seems incredibly similar to lands we’ve had in the past (Panoramas), and the design is so simple it seems almost surprising it hasn’t existed before. But somehow here we are, with a new land that will not only be an important Limited pick and a great card for new players to fix their mana inexpensively, but something that takes on a whole new light in the wake of Oath of the Gatewatch. All that wrapped in a simple package we’ll be taking for granted in two months’ time.

Temple is more exciting on its surface, and I’m looking forward to digging deeper. Again, it’s a novel effect we’ve only even come close to with Dakmor Salvage, but Temple’s simple design opens up all kinds of room. Will the Modern Life from the Loam deck want it? What ways can we make use of sacrificing lands? Is there a better feeling than sacrificing this to Titania or Dust Bowl? While those last two may only feel good for one side of the interaction, the fact this card has me asking these questions for the first time 20+ years into Magic’s existence has me excited for the possibilities.

Triskaidekaphobia

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First thing I thought when I looked at this card: “What the hell?”

Second thing I thought looking at this card: “What the hell, why not?”

It almost seems like a card that should exist in the next Un-set. But instead here it is in its 13 fully bloody shades of glory. It’s true “gimmick” cards like this can cause the community to divide sharply. But truth is these are incredibly exciting to a portion of our community. I figure people who don’t like it can ignore it and move on. At least, they should live with it, because it’s just so darn fun.

It’s probably not even “good” in the traditional sense of Standard power level. With painlands in the format, not to mention the duality of its effect – this won’t be winning any Grand Prix or PT Top 8s anytime soon. But you better believe someone is going to die to it at FNM. And you better believe the wielder of 13 will remember that story forever.

More than that, this card exemplifies all that’s right with top-down design. It’s fun, incredibly flavorful, and every single piece of this card just works. Thirteen bricks, 13 blood stains, 13 words in the lines, 13 logs, etc.

Hell, there’s even 13 words in each sentence preceding this in this section. Spooky.

It goes on and on, and this is sure to be a fan favorite for years to come. And while Triskaidekaphobia will undoubtedly take the title of both “most flavorful” and “most unpronounceable,” it’s just the tip of the 13-sided iceberg when it comes to flavorful cards in Shadows over Innistrad. From Thing in the Ice to Startled Awake to Relentless Dead to Shard of Broken Glass to Sinister Concoction, to the Escape Rooms at the Triple-Grand Prix weekend, to the Avacyn reveal in Detroit with the wonderful Christine Sprankle cosplaying, the ties between flavor and gameplay have never been stronger.

We’re slowing unraveling the pages of this mystery as we investigate further. It’s going to culminate with the reveal of who the Shadow is on Innistrad (Emrakul? Marit Lage?) and then we’re going to fully immerse ourselves in the twisted world of Innistrad.

I can’t wait.

 

Thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter/Twitch/YouTube

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