MTG Fast Finance Podcast: Episode 47 (2016 Year in Review)

MTG Fast Finance is our weekly podcast covering the flurry of weekly financial activity in the world of Magic: The Gathering. MFF provides a fast, fun and useful sixty minute format. Follow along with our seasoned hosts as they walk you through this week’s big price movements, their picks of the week, metagame analysis and a rotating weekly topic.

Show Notes: Dec 21st, 2016

This week the guy’s look back over a bustling 2016 in MTGFinance, and explore the biggest card spikes of the year by percentage, the best and worst spec picks and the most important lessons of the year.

Segment 1: Top Card Spikes of 2016

Note: The data below only reflects the biggest week over week price increases of the year,  and some may not have held their spikes for more than a week. Others may have climbed yet higher since the spike was noted. Slow and steady gainers for the year may be absent from this list as well, as they would not have shown up on our weekly reports, so please review the data to draw deeper conclusions.

Thopter Foundry
Biggest weekly gainer of 2016.

Thopter Foundry (Alara Reborn, Uncommon)
Start: $0.50
Finish: $10.00
Gain: +$9.50 (+1900%)

Conflagrate (TSP, Foil Uncommon)
Start: $0.40
Finish: $5.00
Gain: +$4.60 (+1150%)

Electrostatic Pummeler (KLD, Rare)
Start: $0.50
Finish: $5.00
Gain: +$4.50 (+900%)

Magus of the Tabernacle (Planar Chaos, Rare)
Start: $0.50
Finish: $4.50
Gain: +$4.00 (+800%)

Worship (8th, Rare)
Start: $2.50
Finish: $20.00
Gain: +$17.50 (+700%)

Squandered Resources (Visions, Rare)
Start: $0.75
Finish: $5.50
Gain: +$4.75 (+633%)

Mindslicer (SOA, Foil Rare)
Start: $1.50
Finish: $10.00
Gain: +$8.50 (+567%)

Bloodspore Thrinax (C15, Rare)
Start: $1.00
Finish: $6.50
Gain: +$5.50 (+550%)

Narcomoeba (MMA, Foil Uncommon)
Start: $2.50
Finish: $16.00
Gain: +$13.50 (+540%)

Gaea’s Avenger (Antiquities, Uncommon)
Start: $3.00
Finish: $19.00
Gain: +$16.00 (+533%)

Segment 2: Best & Worst Spec Recommendations of 2016

James’ Top 5 Picks of 2016:

  1. Traverse the Ulvenwald (SOI, Rare)
  • The Call: Confidence Level 7: $1.00 to $5.00 (+5.00/+400%, 6-12+ months)
  • What Happened: Got to $4 on schedule (+300%)

2. Nahiri, the Harbinger (SOI, Mythic)

  • The Call: Confidence Level 6: $10.00 to $20.00 (+10.00/+100%, 0-6+ months)
  • What Happened: Got to $40 on schedule (+300%)

3. Aetherworks Marvel (KLD, Foil Mythic)

  • The Call: Confidence Level 7: $10.00 to $20.00 (+10.00/+100%, 6-12+ months)
  • What Happened: Got to $30 ahead of schedule (+200%)

4. Blessed Alliance (EMN, Foil Uncommon)

  • The Call: Confidence Level 8: $4.00 to $10.00 (+6.00/+150%, 0-6+ months)
  • What Happened: Got to $10 on schedule (+150%)

5. Selfless Spirit (EMN, Foil Rare)

  • The Call: Confidence Level 7: $8.00 to $15.00 (+7.00/88%, 0-6+ months)
  • What Happened: Got to $18 on schedule (+125%)

James also made great picks on Mantis Rider foils, Thing in the Ice, Pyroblast foils, Grim Flayer foils, Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy, Time Spiral, Force of Will foils, Volrath’s Stronghold and Bazaar of Baghdad.

If you listened to James about Eye of Ugin expeditions you made money, but not if you waited too long to sell them like he did. He also screwed up calling EMA Mana Crypt foils at $225, failing to predict their reprinting as Masterpieces in Kaladesh, and called Deploy the Gatewatch too early at $3.25 to hit $8 (lol). The call on Eldritch Evolution foils at $15 also would have cost you plenty vs. current pricing.

Travis Top Picks of 2016:

  1. Realms Uncharted (ROE, Rare)
  • The Call: Confidence Level 7: $0.25 to $4.00 (+3.75/+1500%, 6-12+ months)
  • What Happened: Got to $3 on schedule (+1100%)

2. Adarkar Wastes (Various, Rare)

  • The Call: Confidence Level 8: $2.00 to $10.00 (+8.00/+400%, 0-6+ months)
  • What Happened: Got to $15 soon after (+650%)

3. Needle Spires (Oath, Rare)

  • The Call: Confidence Level 7: $1.00 to $5.00 (+4.00/+400%, 6-12+ months)
  • What Happened: Got to $4.50 ahead of schedule (+350%)

4. The Chain Veil (EMN, Mythic)

  • The Call: Confidence Level 8: $1.50 to $5.00 (+3.50/+233%, 6-12+ months)
  • What Happened: Got to $4.50 on schedule (+200%)

5. Doubling Season (MMA)

  • The Call: Confidence Level 7: $25.00 to $50.00 (+40.00/88%, 6-12+ months)
  • What Happened: Got to $65 on schedule (+160%)

Travis’ worst calls of the year included Arlin Kord at $10 (down 30%), Ob Nixilis, Reignited at $5 (down 30%), EMA boxes at $240 (due to re-release), and Kozilek, the Great Distortion at $7 (down 50%).

Disclosure: Travis and James may own speculative copies of the above cards.

Segment 3: Lessons of 2016

James & Travis discuss the lessons of 2016 for MTG Finance including the increase in reprints, the threat to eternal format support from WoTC, the potential saturation of the premium card market and the increasing relevance of Commander in card speculation.

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

Resolutions, Past and Future

I’ve done it before and I’m bringing back the standby: The New Year’s Resolutions.

In case you want to delve into my past in this regard, here’s my list from last year, which includes a retrospective on the year before.

2016 was a pretty awesome year for me in Magic.

#1: Use PucaTrade to Acquire a Gaea’s Cradle.

Done! I paid a bounty, but my goodness, did it feel good to pick one up. I’ve chronicled my ups and downs with Puca in the past, but this year has been a very good one for me with Pucatrade. I’ve gotten a Cradle, multiple SDCC foils, a judge foil Sol Ring…yeah, it’s going well for me.

Like many others, I’ve had to work more at things since Future Site came along. There’s a lot of people who are trying to trade up via the site, and so it’s not as easy as it was. But I remain invested, and optimistic.

#2: Have a Regular Magic scene

Done! I don’t get to go as much as I want, but I’ve got good babysitters and an even better Commander group. Oh it feels nice, and there’s a healthy mix of insane combo and janky durdling.

#3: Trust my reads more

Working on it. I did a lot more selling than buying this year, though, and I’ve decided to stick to playsets of things. I keep my stack of 50-odd Prophet of Kruphix in a clearly visible location. I’m not one for going deep anymore.

#4: Get and stay organized

Mostly done. I’m down to two binders. One for trading and one for long-term holds that don’t go into storage, as well as my signed cards. I just prefer keeping them in a binder, rather than a box.

#5: Be on a podcast

I didn’t actually write this out here, I said it on Twitter, but podcasting is fun. It’s crossed off my to-do list, and I got to do casts with both James and Travis as they each went on warm vacations.

Ideally, I’d have the chance to do that more, but we will see.

 

So what are my goals for 2017?

#1: Make Day 2 of a Grand Prix

So I’m going to have a couple of chances at this, in a variety of formats. I haven’t done it yet, and I don’t think any less of myself for it…but I really want it. I mean, REALLY want it.

It’s going to take more practice and more discipline from me. I know that I trade with a clear eye and a calculating demeanor, and I am good enough at Magic to make a day 2. I’ve been at this long enough to have come close a few times, and this is a goal I should be able to pull off. I hope.

#2: Spend more money

It seems silly coming from me, someone who’s been writing about Magic finance for more than three years, but I’ve been taking a lot more profit out of my collection than I’ve been putting in. I sold my all-foil deck for a pretty penny this year, and that was satisfying indeed, even as it tore a piece out of my magpie of a soul.

Like many of you, I follow people on Twitter who sell cards every so often. I buy on occasion, when the value is there, but I know that I would be making more if I spent more. I’m not talking crazy stacks of money or cards, but I want to have a bankroll that is just for Magic, and not subject to the vagaries of how often I have to buy shoes for my kids.

#3: Build a Cube

One of the guys I play with has a powered Cube, and he loves it. He’s built and disassembled several over his career, and I want one.

However, I’m far too random for a stock list, and I am really leaning towards making mine an experience. I’m very likely to build the Reject Rare Cube, but I might pick a block.

It’s a nice feeling to know that there are enough people I play with regularly, that this Cube would see some play. I might foil it out, I might not. Foiling out something like this usually a profitable undertaking, but it’s so much work. I did it once and I’m not sure I have the patience for another go-round.

#4: Treat Magic as a social event, not just a game or a financial transaction.

I recently realized that a lot of my interactions around the game are ancillary to my primary goal: To have fun with other people.

Yes, I trade with an eye for value. I loathe being the one who gives up a $20 card for four $5 cards, unless that’s a playset of Eldrazi Displacer.

But what I get from this game hasn’t just been value. It’s been friends. It’s been fun. It’s been connections that I value highly, and I want a lot more of that.

You may have seen people recently questioning the EV of a Grand Prix Main Event. That’s valid, considering the prices. I’ll be writing about this exact issue as we get close to GP San Jose.

There’s a lot to be gained from everything else happening at these events, which really are conventions. Look around at a GP. Artists, accessories, a bazillion side events. Look at the people who got together for the first time in forever and rented a house together. Look at the kids and their parents playing alongside. Look at the sheer number of people having a blast, even the ones who simply measure their fun by how many unwanted commons they scoop up.

I want to keep my eye on everything that’s good about this community. There is a long way to go before it’s perfect, as we have too many players who aren’t welcoming or appropriate in their interactions, but the game is awesome and the people should be too.

Yes, 2016 has had a lot of awful things happen. Some are going to last for years.

Here’s to a better 2017, one filled with fun and Masterpieces and sweet brews and incredible stories.

PROTRADER: PucaPicks for 12/29/16

It’s the end of the year, and despite this being a lull in news, there’s lots of news! We’ve learned what most of the Aether Revolt Inventions are, and we’ve heard people whine about Ornithopter.

I don’t suppose it’s news that a whole lot of the Affinity deck got Invention versions, as that’s a deck that combines some awesome artifacts. Enchantress decks will have their day in the sun too.

We are about to get hyped on sweet, sweet spoiler coverage starting just next week, and that’s always a sneaky, sneaky time financially. Some cards are going to spike as new combos are revealed. Some will drop as new answers are printed.

I want to look at things that still have nearly a year to go in Standard, because there’s three sets’ worth of cards to make them spike. You may or may not agree with some of these, and that’s what the comments and the forums are for.

To the picks!

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ProTrader: Magic doesn’t have to be expensive.

ProTrader: Hot Spec (Dec 28/16)

Note: This article was available for 48 hours exclusively to MTGPrice.com Pro Traders. Sign up today to get a head start on our best ideas.

Hey guys,

This is a new series I’m going to be running every so often, where I give you just the basic info you need to make some money, so that you can get in on what is likely to be a limited time opportunity once the word gets out.

So long story short, it turns out that EDH focused Masterpiece cards from Kaladesh are significantly cheaper in Europe via MagicCardmarket.eu, likely because the EDH scene is significantly weaker in several of the EU countries. The other factor is that the EU has fallen against the USD and is now a mere 1.05 to the dollar.

Specifically I suggest taking a hard look at the following cards:

  • Sol Ring
  • Mana Crypt
  • Chromatic Lantern
  • Rings of Brighthearth

Sol RingMana Crypt

Chromatic LanternRings of Brighthearth

Each of these cards is likely to make you $20-40/copy within the year, with more upside if their stock runs low in North America. Amazingly, most of these were even lower last month, but so it goes.

Here’s how it all breaks down:

  • Sol Ring
    • TCG NM around $120 (30 copies left)
    • MCM NM $70
    • Upside: $40+/copy after fees/shipping
  • Mana Crypt
    • TCG NM around $115 (30 copies left)
    • MCM NM $75
    • Upside: $35+/copy after fees/shipping
  • Chromatic Lantern
    • TCG NM around $60 (42 copies left)
    • MCM NM $30
    • Upside: $25+/copy after fees/shipping
  • Rings of Brighthearth
    • TCG NM around $45 (27 copies left)
    • MCM NM $25
    • Upside: $15+/copy after fees/shipping

What I love about this is that there is solid arbitrage on the table, and the declining inventory on TCG suggest that holding these cards will provide further upside once the focus is on Aether Revolt and Amonkhet (which could admittedly shift the focus as folks chase those cards, but it also cuts off the supply.)

Here’s what you need to do to make the play:

  1. Live in Europe, because MCM only allows shipping to EU addresses
  2. If you don’t live in Europe find a friend or make a contact via social media and arrange for them to order the cards for you in exchange for future favors. For instance, you could suggest that they order a few extra copies for themselves so that they can send them along with your own copies and have you sell them and send them back the cash net fees via Paypal. Alternatively, a cash fee, future favors trading or profit sharing arrangement may work. Yes, this is the tricky part, but you will want this contact later.
  3. Ask your trading partner to focus on sellers with good sales records and multiple copies of your target in stock. Shipping is significantly more expensive via MCM, with each shipment to your trading partner likely to end up between 2e and 8e. Clearly this means you want to be placing larger orders to reduce drag but the arbitrage is good enough here to make your play worthwhile so long as you’re diligent about the shipping costs.
  4. It costs your partner more to pay via Paypal, so try to find a partner who is already set up to pay MCM via online bank transfer and they won’t have to pass those fees on to you as well.
  5. Send the partner cash to cover the order via Paypal, and make clear in the notes what you are expecting in return.
  6. Most of these picks can make you money right away, but I think they’ll be even better in 6 months, so consider building up a stack with your trading partner to reduce overall shipping costs overseas per card when you eventually take possession.

If you’re too slow on the draw here, remember, something similar is likely to happen with EDH focused Masterpieces in the rest of the sets this year so keep an eye on the charts.

Cheers, hope it works out for you!

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.