Monthly Archives: April 2018

Brainstorm Brewery

Brainstorm Brewery #284 The Misprint

 

Corbin (@Chosler88) and Jason (@jasonEalt ) boot off long term temporary guest DJ (@Rose0fThorns) for an episode so that they can dive deep into the world of Misprints with Travis ( @beardedSkeptic)

Also, make sure to check us out on Youtube  https://www.youtube.com/user/BrainstormBrewery

Need to contact us? Hit up BrainstormBrew@gmail.com

Jason Alt, Unlocked ProTrader

Unlocked Pro Trader: Too Many Boats

Nerds,

I can feel the herd getting restless. In fact, people have spent so long waiting for me to address the fungus monster in the room that they took it upon themselves to make a reddit post and tried to do it themselves. Things went… OK.

Magnified 20x, a grocer’s apostrophe looks relatively harmless, but in a sentence it can cause acute migraines in 5% of the population, myself included. ‘Superfluou’s apo’strophe’s a’side, this was a pretty good reddit post and probably should have gotten a good discussion going. It didn’t.

Would it have? Or do we have years and years’ worth of data that says otherwise?

Have they? Or did they just get lucky that Commander 2017 was tribal so they could run out and buy cards like Waiting in the Weeds and then pat each other on the back as they tried to sell them to each other? Also, buyout is a noun.

I feel like eyebrows Goofus is onto something, here. I don’t agree that the sheer number of new commanders will keep anything from spiking, but I do think that the card everyone wants to talk about may suffer from affecting too many cards that could go in the deck. If Muldrotha is basically less popular than Atraxa, there’s a chance nothing goes up at all. When there are too many boats and not enough tide, something about the boats don’t go up? Look, I’ve been trying for awhile to pretend the boat metaphor was an actual sinking boat and abandon it.

I think we should look at the sheer volume of cards that could go up based on Muldrotha decks being a thing, which I think they will. We can evaluate whether or not any of them have a chance of going up or if there are just too many ways to build the deck. Let’s begin.

 

Embarrassment of Riches

I think we should look at Muldrotha before we continue. You cut down on the number of RTFC errors you commit as a writer by R’ing the F’ing C.

I can’t F’ing R this F’ing C. Let’s enlist the help of some type.

 

 

3GUB
Legendary Creature – Elemental Avatar
During each of your turns, you may play up to one permanent card of each permanent type from your graveyard. (If a card has multiple permanent types, choose one as you play it.)

 

The first class of cards I want to look at are the really annoying enchantments. What if, instead of building a board, we just spammed the same one back out every turn, ruining everyone’s lives?

Cards in this class – Hesitation, Standstill, Mystic Remora, Decree of Silence, Lunar Force.

Standstill is at a historic low and while that means it could have upside, it also means Muldrotha is on its own. It would have to pull a lot of weight considering Legacy isn’t really doing Standstill any favors right now and it’s not really an EDH card at the current moment. Pass.

Spikes caused by the previewing of a card are like clockwork. The card goes from x to 8x then falls to 4x barring actual adoption. You don’t really ever eat it if you buy at x but those who buy at 4x hoping to get out at 8x tend to eat it. Don’t hope to sell to greater fools, just get out when you can. The only thing this card has going for it is that everyone ferreted out the cheap copies to avoid paying $7 so if this goes up again, there are no cheap copies squirreled (the opposite of ferreted) away and the only source of copies is the cold, merciless open market.

Hesitation is and will likely stay a dime. Mystic Remora is already good and this won’t likely change much. We’re off to a rough start because while these strategies are annoying, I don’t think they or any other strategy will be universal and they probably need to be.

Contamination

Muldrotha sure isn’t going to make this card cheaper, is it? While this isn’t on the Reserved List, it’s not likely on anyone’s “this needs a printing” list, either. It’s so absurdly anti-social that only the spikiest of decks will consider running it, ruling it out of Commander precons. Usually this card is mitigated by the upkeep cost, but you can let this die and just bring it right back.  Gross.

How about board control?

Cards in this class- Nevinyrral’s Disk, Pernicious Deed, Oblivion Stone.

Nev’s Disk has been printed tooooo many times.

Deed isn’t looking too bad. It has decent ‘REC metrics and adoption in more than just EDH. I expected to poop on almost every pick, but this doesn’t seem too bad. It’s at its floor as are a lot of Conspiracy 2 cards and is beginning to recover. I think this is the time to get in on deed regardless and its utility in Muldrotha could be a good a time as any to make some bucks on a solid card. I didn’t expect to like this as much as I do, but Deed is probably solid right now.

This is no pricing error, you can actually snag a foil Iconic Masters O Stone for the same price as a Mirrodin one. I think that’s bound to look pretty silly in 6 months. I can’t imagine eating it because you bought foil copies but I guess nothing is impossible. People are done drafting Iconic Masters which means new copies enter the market at the speed of people popping $12 booster packs. It seems like we’re basically at peak supply and we have a glut of these foils I don’t mind swooping in on.

Finally, I want to talk about cards that are just really good with Muldrotha and how there aren’t too many cards in this camp for Muldrotha to push up since I expect them to be in 70%+ of all Muldrotha decks if people are smart.

Defense of the Heart

This is not on the Reserved List but it probably should be. This is also going to be in every Muldrotha list ever if people are smart. This is busted as heck and at least one of your opponents is bound to have the requisite number of creatures. Play Forbidden Orchard if they refuse to play along. This is just too good in Muldrotha decks and outside of them, too, I guess. This is a rare from Urza’s Legacy and while it’s not on the Reserved List, it’s not on anyone’s “reprint this ASAP” list, either – not in a world where Phyrexian Altar is still unreprinted.

Command Beacon

I’m betting that Commander 2018 is Planeswalkers. That being the case, the earliest this gets reprinted in a Commander precon is Commander 2019. For those keeping score at home, that’s like 18 months from now. You think you can make some money buying in at $10 and sitting on them for 18 months? I do.

Spike Weaver

This managed to avoid ending up on the Reserved List because it’s not quite as good as Exalted Dragon, you see. That said, it’s been expensive for a while and it doesn’t seem like there is a convenient place to reprint it. Its combo potential is very high making it a tricky EDH deck inclusion and it’s very set-specific making it tricky to print elsewhere. This is also pretty damn good with Muldrotha since you can fog over multiple turns then replay him full of counters and ready to rumble.

Mindslaver

Lol.

LED

Different lol.

I think we will have time between EDHREC filling up with Muldrotha lists and prices actually moving and I plan to revisit the commanders I covered to see if there is anything I missed, but I think you should take a stab at Muldrotha. In my limited dicking around with it, I found the following cards do a lot of work.

Caustic Caterpillar, Vessel of Nascency, Seal of Doom, Seal of Removal, Seal of Primordium, Fleshbag Marauder, Sidisi, Undead Vizier (another reason to look at this card – I think you go deep on Sidisi nowish). Other people are beginning to post lists, so see what they’re on and we’ll revisit when we see stuff posted on the ‘REC.

Thanks for reading, nerds. Next week we’ll wade into the giant pile of potential commanders and look at more opportunities. Until next time!

James Chillcott, Tipping Point

Tipping Point: Invocations About to Pop (Apr 2/18)

Welcome to the second installment in my Tipping Point series, which looks to explore important cards that are teetering on the verge of major price spikes due to low supply. My focus here is to try and flag cards in time for you to grab what you need for decks or get in early enough to profit.  In comparison to picks made earlier in the reprint cycle, the cards found in this series are going to a) offer less meat on the bone but b) be more likely to succeed (due to their already low supply/reprint risk). You will also notice that many of these picks will tend to be foils and promos rather than non-foils as for obvious reasons foils tend to dry up much faster than non-foils, except for the most important of staples, where regular copies may quickly follow during a spike in demand. In terms of timeline, I’ll be aiming to get you in and out of positions within a year, or setting you up to save good money on cards you might have been holding back on unnecessarily.

This week we’re looking at the Amonkhet Invocations. Perhaps the most maligned of the Masterpiece Series cards released so far, the Invocations put off many players due to their busy borders and near illegibility as game pieces.

Despite the fact that I’m personally not a fan of the borders, given my success with the Kaladesh Investions over the last year, I’ve been checking in on the Invocations to see which if any, seem likely to break out. Blood Moon currently has the lowest inventory of the Invocations in North America and is very near a tipping point of it’s own, but at $140 buy-in, the % returns are tough to predict from here forward given how popular the M25 foils may end up. (I’d guess Blood Moon ends up near $200 given enough time.)

Without further ado  here are my picks for cards at the tipping point heading into early spring.

1) Blood Moon (Invocation)

Current Price: $140
Target Price/Timeline: $200+ (6-12+ months)

Indisputably the most important Modern card in the Invocation list, Blood Moon also sees play in both Legacy and EDH as well. This should mark this version as the most durably popular of the Invocations, but there are a few cautionary notes. Firstly, the card was a lot more exciting near it’s lows around $90. The other factor is that this card has a small pile of competing versions, including foils from 8th, 9th, Modern Masters, Modern Masters 2017 and M25. That really is a lot of competition, but the reality is that the inventory has been draining hard on this version. Given that word on the street is that Hour of Devestation is already out of print on low demand, Invocations from that set are likely to be very tough to restock moving forward and this could be contributing to the low stock.

2) No Mercy (Invocation)

No Mercy
Current Price: $30
Target Price/Timeline: $50+ (6-12 months)

Surprisingly, the other Invocation representing very low supply is black enchantment No Mercy, a powerful EDH card that has only ever been printed in foil (or otherwise) one other time, way back in Urza’s Legacy. EDHRec has the card reported in 4000+ decks, which suggests moderate demand, but it’s possible the card is underplayed by black mages overall. In contrast to Blood Moon, this is a cheap card that has only seen two foils in twenty years so it should be a strong option for acquisition given the solid price floor, broad utility in EDH and good possible upside.

3) Maelstrom Pulse (Invocation)

Maelstrom Pulse

Current Price: $55
Target Price/Timeline: $80+ (3-6 months)

Maelstrom Pulse is another card with multiple competing foil printings (Alara Reborn, Modern Masters &  GP Promo) but with Jund back on the menu in Modern this season, all of them are on the rise. This version can currently be found between $55 and $60 and I can see it easily cresting $80 before the end of the year given how small the supply already is. As with Blood  Moon there is some moderate EDH demand to backstop this play.

4) Diabolic Intent (Invocations)

Diabolic Intent

Current Price: $32
Target Price/Timeline: $50+ (3-6 months)

This card may not be on your radar but that’s probably because it’s only EVER seen one other printing, with the original fifteen years ago in Planeshift. OG foils already go for $65+ and the odds of WoTC reprinting this again anytime soon are low given their general lack of interest in efficient tutors. Supply on the Invocations is already low, the black cards are the best looking of the set, and EDHREC.com reports 7000 decks running the card already, which as with No Mercy, is probably too low. I see no reason to hold off on picking a few of these up to add to decks and wait for the near inevitable payoff.

 

5) Hazoret the Fervent

Hazoret the Fervent

Current Price: $140 ($80 in the EU…for now)
Target Price/Timeline: $140+ (6-12 months)

We’re late on this one. Of course Hazoret was a major part of Standard this year, but it’s not Standard players that recently cleaned this version of the card out closer to $60. Those purchases were almost certainly made on the assumption that this will be an occasional player in Jund builds for Modern for some time to come. I’d pass on the card at the current North American prices, but you can still source it closer to $80 in Europe, so I’ve picked up a few on the assumption that the Invocation can hold $100+ moving forward. There is some possibility that copies will enter the market when Hazoret rotates out of Standard this fall, but I wouldn’t hold your breath on a major price drop for this version.

That’s it for this edition of Tipping Point. Expect me to check in with new editions once a month to keep you guys on the cutting edge. Take care and have fun!

Watchtower

PROTRADER: The Watchtower 4/2/18

2 Comments

By: Travis Allen
@wizardbumpin

Don’t miss this week’s installment of the MTG Fast Finance podcast, an on-topic, no-nonsense tour through the week’s most important changes in the Magic economy. And if you enjoy playing Magic, make sure to visit https://scry.land to find PPTQs, SCG Opens, and more events on an interactive map with worldwide coverage. Find Magic near you today.

Overall Easter weekend was on the quieter side of things in the world of Magic. There was a team limited grand prix overseas, which was fun for the people over there I’m sure, but as far as we’re concerned, it would have been more relevant to watch a stream of kitchen table Magic.

There was a Modern MOCS yesterday too, which had some less-than-predictable results. Hollow One and Humans were the decks to beat, with the best performances by a sizeable margin. Storm and Jund face planted. Ironworks…showed up? And Tron probably upset some people.

Tom Ross wrote an article on Friday about some cool Modern decks, and it’s worth knowing he wrote that. That ran on DailyMTG, which is a lot of eyeballs.

Retract

Price Today: $3
Possible Price: $10

Tom’s article over on the mothership certainly got people talking this week, because I sold four playsets of Puresteel Paladin in two days after not having sold any in who knows how long. If Magic players today are anything like I was ten years ago, seeing a fairly cheap combo deck like that got a lot of casual players excited to build it, especially since it’s “adaptable” to be affordable. (That means cutting the moxes, which of course ruins the entire deck, but that’s the type of detail those same players will happily overlook.)

Anyways, if this deck picks up steam, whether on kitchen tables or final tables, Retract is the weakest link. A single printing in Mirrodin means supply is as low as possible in Magic’s most popular competitive format, Modern. It’s a cornerstone card in the deck, and I’m not sure you could ever build the strategy without a full playset. It’s a just about the ripest confluence of factors around a card spiking you could ask for. (Save for the deck, being like, good.)

Supply is decently high right now, but that’s in part due to Retract having had the briefest of moments in the sun a year ago. That jump brought the card up from $2 into the $10+ range, which dredged every spare copy in existence up. That supply is now sitting around in the hands of some vendors and various market operators, and much of that is available online right now. In other words, there’s not really any supply beyond what’s visible in the market.

Diplomatic Immunity

Price Today: $.5
Possible Price: $4

If you poke around over at EDHREC, you’ll see that Zur the Enchanter has been popular the last few months. He’s an odd commander that pushes players into notable card choices. One of them that jumped out at me is Diplomatic Immunity. Immunity is from a different time period in Magic’s design history. It gives itself and the creature it enchants shroud. That’s it. An annoying enchantment. Truly, Magic is the greatest game.

Diplomatic Immunity is a gold standard in Zur, since it helps ensure he hangs around for more shenanigans on follow up turns. Not only can Zur fetch it, but there’s a whole enchantment subtheme with the deck, so it fits in well. Overall you’ll find Immunity in about 2,000 EDH decks, which isn’t a remarkably deep pool, but it’s not insignificant.

What catches my eye here is that like Retract, it’s a single printed card. It’s a common from Mercadian Masques with no second printing. If Zur continues to see new decks being built, supply is going to drain on Immunity. We’re not going to see a $20 card here, but a jump from pocket change to several dollars is possible. Selling these one at a time on TCGPlayer or eBay would be annoying, but buying in at $.45 and then dumping a stack to a buylist for $1.50 a few months later would be awfully sweet.

Rhystic Study

Price Today: $10
Possible Price: $20

Anyone that’s ever listed copies of Rhystic Study for sale on TCG knows how hot a commodity this is. It’s one of the most popular blue EDH cards, which is really saying something. It’s also basically a meme unto itself; “You pay one for that? Pay one for that? Pay one for that?”

Given how quickly these move, as 1-ofs, there’s no doubt that EDH players are vacuuming them up at an alarming rate. So far there’s been enough churn to keep the market liquid, but I wonder if we’re approaching a turning point on that. Players have to be getting rid of these pretty fast to keep up with the demand in the market right now. EDH players often like to stash their cards, not sell them, so I’d expect a healthy attrition on a staple like this. A constant upwards price movement for years supports my suspicions.

$10 for a common may seem crazy, but this has moved far beyond its printed rarity. There’s not a lot left out there at this price, or less than $20 in general. If this trend continues, this will be a blue EDH staple that’s at least a Jackson before too long.

Travis Allen has  been playing Magic: The Gathering since 1994, mostly in upstate New York. Ever since his first FNM he’s been trying to make playing Magic cheaper, and he first brought his perspective to MTGPrice in 2012. You can find his articles there weekly, as well as on the podcast MTG Fast Finance.

 

[/hide]