18 for ProTraders – Plan Your Specs

June 4, 2018 Travis Allen

Don’t miss this week’s installment of the MTG Fast Finance podcast, an on-topic, no-nonsense tour through the week’s most important changes in the Magic economy.

Typically, this is where I would talk about the Pro Tour that wrapped up about 15 hours ago. We’d look at dominant archetypes, scour them for keystone cards, and try to identify potential pillars of the new Standard in October.

Except that the Pro Tour was a wasteland. Look at the top performing Standard decks — Mono-Red Aggro, Red-Black Aggro, Red Vehicles, Red Menance, Red Scare, Red Square, Seeing Red, Redoubled Efforts, uhh, RedderRabbit.

There isn’t even any blood in the stone that is the control lists. I was all set to look for key UW Control cards, except that the first Ravnica set won’t have Azorious — they’re getting Dimir instead. Which means Teferi, and Lyra, and History of Benalia may not be part of the control archetype. Instead we should be focusing on the black control cards, since that’s the strategy that’s getting paid. Once Standard prices deflate over the summer, mid-August perhaps, it will be worth trying to find opportunities. Until then though, we’re going to be focusing on EDH, maybe the reserve list, and Modern, should the opportunity arise.

Swiftfoot Boots (Foil)

Price Today: $5
Possible Price: $15

First up this week is Lightning Greaves’ cousin, Swiftfoot Boots. A touch more expensive in the activation cost, but that’s because you get to upgrade from shroud to hexproof, which is not a negligible difference, as any equipment-themed deck will tell you.

Swiftfoot Boots is the third most played artifact that isn’t a signet. It goes Sol Ring, Lightning Greaves, Swiftfoot Boots. 72,000 decks, according to EDHREC. That’s, as they say, “an assload of decks.” I do not need to give you more reasons why you should believe me that this is a desirable, in-demand card.

Boots have been reprinted a lot. After their initial run in Magic 2012, they were in Commander 2013. And Commander 2014. And Commander 2015. And Commander 2016. And Commander 2017. And then Masters 25. You’ll notice that only two of those have foil printings — the original Magic 2012 run, and now Masters 25. People that didn’t want to spend $15 on foil M12 copies got a break with M25, since they’re now down around $5. That’s where we are now, and it’s not going to last. Pick up your foil M25 copies before they’re $15.

Kodama’s Reach (Foil)

Price Today: $6
Possible Price: $15

Cultivate is the most played sorcery in EDH. The second most played is Kodama’s Reach, which is the original version of the functional reprint that is Cultivate. Kodama’s Reach is like Swiftfoot boots. It has its original foil printing, a zillion Commander printings, and a second foil printing. (Although the order is a bit difference I believe.) Point being that there’s two foil copies of Kodama’s Reach – the original Kamigawa one, and the Modern Masters one.

I do not need to tell you that neither Champions of Kamigawa nor Modern Masters are recent sets. Modern Masters was 2013, and Champions of Kamigawa is even older than that. And without any more Masters sets on the horizon, there are basically no foil reprint venues on the table right now. This year’s core set I guess? That’s it though.

You’ll find roughly ten foil MMA printings of Kodama’s Reach on TCG right now, and zero — yes, zero — NM foil Champions copies. Of a card in 45,000 EDH decks.

Command Tower (CMA)

Price Today: $60
Possible Price: $100

We’ll wrap up the week with a bigger ticket item. Command Tower is the most played land in EDH, behind only basic lands. (Amusingly enough, none are played in 100% of decks they could be). Like Kodama’s Reach and Swiftfoot Boots, it’s found in nearly every Commander set. Anyone building an EDH deck is going to get to the mana base, and there’s a good chance the first card the scribble down on the back of the Denny’s napkin is “Command Tower.” Its utility only continues to grow, as we see more viable five-color decks enter the fray in the way of Ramos, Dragon Engine and Jodah.

There’s two foil copies of Command Tower available. One is the judge promo, which is fairly cool. Fairly. But honestly, not as cool as the Commander’s Arsenal printing. The judge promo has the original art, which is, come on, just not that cool. Sort of a bland…tower. While the Commander’s Arsenal printing isn’t blowing anyone away, it’s at least got some color in it, which is an improvement over the judge copies.

In any case, judge copies, where you can find them, are $100 or more. Commander’s Arsenal copies, of which there are like six available, are between $60 and $70. Probably not going to be long before that gap closes and both copies end up at $120.

Travis Allen has been playing Magic: The Gathering since 1994, mostly in upstate New York. Ever since his first FNM he’s been trying to make playing Magic cheaper, and he first brought his perspective to MTGPrice in 2012. You can find his articles there weekly, as well as on the podcast MTG Fast Finance.

James Chillcott, Pro Tour Coverage

Pro Tour Dominaria: Financial Preview

June 1, 2018 James Chillcott

Pro Tour Dominaria, the second Pro Tour of 2018 got rolling this morning in Richmond, VA, USA.

As per usual the world’s best players have been holed up in east coast hotels and rented homes for the last week or two, all seeking to answer the only query that matters: is there a fresh deck or reconfiguration of existing archetypes out there that will allow them to catch the field off balance while offering consistent play against the known quantities in the field?

With $250,000 USD on the line, and $50,000 for the winner, players looking to Top 8 will have to tap into both luck and skill to secure the victory.

Six weeks after the release of the ultra-popular Dominaria set, we find ourselves well entrenched in one of the better Standard formats in recent memory. With a relative dearth of major Standard tournaments over the last few weeks due to significant Modern and Team Trios representation, our hard data on the best decks of paper Standard is more scarce than usual. Perhaps the most relevant recent result can be drawn from the Standard decks of the Team Trios results from GP Toronto, two weeks ago, where the following decks made Top 4:

Entering into this weekend, the online meta would suggest that the top decks sync up with what we saw at the recent IRL team tourneys:

RB Aggro (12%)
UW Control (7%)
GB Constrictor (5%)
Red Aggro (5%)
UB Mid-Range (4%)
WB Vehicles (4%)
Green Aggro (4%)
UB Control (4%)

By any standard that is a fairly diverse and healthy looking field.

It is worth noting that the Pro Tour currently requires that players succeed in a mixed schedule of booster draft (DOM/DOM/DOM) and constructed play with 3 rounds of draft this morning at 9am , followed by 5 rounds of Standard starting around 1pm EST/11am PST, Friday.

For we finance types, this is going to be a tricky tournament to make or save money on, given the various factors in play. Firstly, Dominaria’s popularity has resulted in demand exceeding supply on the first wave or product allocations. As a result, heading into this weekend, we still have five mythic rares from the set commanding prices over $10, including Karn, Scion of Urza, Teferi, Hero of Dominaria, Lyra Dawnbringer, History of Benalia and Mox Amber. Of the rares, the most relevant thus far is Goblin Chainwhirler, a consistent four-of in the red decks that is holding $5 at present. On the other hand, additional supply is now making it’s way into the supply chain, and we’re also heading into the summer season that typically leads to a general collapse in card prices, especially for Standard staples, and even more so if they are rotating in the fall. As a result, our focus is likely to be most productive when used to identify the cards that may be set up to spike after the major fall rotation and that we may be able to get on discount during a summer vendor sale or Ebay coupon day.

Cards to Watch

Karn, Scion of Urza

Current Price: $50
Odds to Top 8: 1 in 3
Monday Price: $50

Initially widely underestimated, the new Karn with pants immediately started putting up results in multiple formats as soon as he was released on the unsuspecting Magic population. In Modern, Frank Karsten has been advocating Karn, Scion of Urza as a 2-of in Affinity lists, and we’ve also seen the big metal planeswalker show up in Legacy Mono-Red Prison, Eldrazi and Affinity/Prison hybrid lists where the presence of City of Traitors and Ancient Tomb make Turn 2 Karn a real possibility. In Standard, Karn is in the top 10 most played cards in the format, most prominently appearing in WB Vehicles decks as a 3-of. UB Mid-Range & RB Aggro decks also have been spotted running Karn, though not as consistently. Generally speaking I am most interested in Russian or Korean foils as close to $250 as possible, since they are highly unlikely to see a reprint in the next five years, and should enjoy some strong multi-format support rolling forward that pushes rare original printings sky high. If you have been looking to acquire your personal play set, your position is uncertain. In theory, summer doldrums and additional Dominaria supply should lead to downward price pressure, potentially opening up access to sub $40 copies. On the other hand, a dominant showing this weekend might encourage even more players to pile onto the card speculatively, which would open up a chance for the card to top $60 in the short term. Net, net, I’d recommend holding off for the summer sale season.

Teferi, Hero of Dominaria

Current Price: $35
Odds to Top 8: 1 in 5
Monday Price: $35

Oddly enough, we have not one but two planeswalkers from Dominaria showing early signs of multi-format utility. During spoiler season, players also widely underestimated Teferi but just a month later pro players are now wondering aloud whether the classic character is actually better than the recently unbanned Jace, the Mind Sculptor in blue-based Modern control shells. In EDH, the interaction with Doubling Season in Atraxa super-friends decks will set up a solid support base for the card longer term even if he won’t see the kind of Legacy/Vintage play that Karn does. In Standard, Teferi is only really showing up in the U/W control builds, where it is a rock solid 4-of. As such, price movement over the weekend on Teferi is likely to hinge on that archetype making waves in the Top 8 and winning the tournament without triggering any serious calls for a banning. That’s a narrow tightrope to walk for short term gains, so as with Karn, I am more interested in targeting rare foils and personal playsets of non-foils a bit later this summer.

Goblin Chainwhirler

Current Price: $4
Odds to Top 8: 1 in 5
Monday Price: $5

Goblin Chainwhirler is a hyper efficient aggro card, presenting a significant body, dueling prowess via first strike and the ability to needle the final point of damage against your opponent or pressure Karn or Teferi from outside the red zone. That being said, it’s pretty tough for Standard only rares from a popular set to hold price tags over $5. As a result, I am more interested in this card to potentially top $10 in the fall once supply has drained, on the assumption that there will still be a red or Rx aggro deck that wants this card in the aggro friendly early days of the fall post-rotation format. If a red aggro deck wins this Pro Tour or dominates the Top 8, there is a chance that Chainwhirler could briefly push $8-10, but supply pressures will likely force a retrace in the coming days or weeks.

Mox Amber

Current Price: $12
Odds to Top 8: Near Zero
Monday Price: $11

Mox Amber was perhaps the most hyped card of Dominaria, with pre-order pricing topping $30 a copy. It’s a mox! Buy, buy! Thing is, this is one of the tougher mox incarnations to reliably squeeze early mana out of, and since a deck hasn’t emerged in either Standard or Modern, we are likely to get a good shot at a solid long term spec here. Later this summer I would expect to be able to snag regular copies under $10, and foils under $20, which is something I feel confidant will pay off over a long enough horizon. Eventually, EDH demand is likely to be supplemented by a tipping point of one and two mana legendary permanents, and an interesting Modern deck should emerge that wants the full four copies. Of course there is also a decent chance that your funds get buried in the spec box for three to five years when you could have turned your funds over multiple times in the interim, so you really just need to decide how much of a pet spec this one will be for you.

Walking Ballista

Current Price: $20
Odds to Top 8: 2 in 5
Monday Price: $20

At this point, we should all be fairly suspicious of any XX colorless creature that WoTC deigns to print into Standard. Ballista is another multi-format all-star, with significant play in Modern, Legacy and Vintage. Showing up in 40% of decks in Standard at present Ballista has a very good chance of winning the trophy this weekend, in any of GB Constrictor, UB Control, Rx Aggro or WB Vehicles. This card has more than proven it’s mettle at this point but none of that is likely to overcome the gravity exerted on non-foil copies as we head into the fall rotation of Kaladesh block. Consequently you should almost certainly be trying to unload your non-foil copies. Longer term I like foils (especially Russian/Korean copies) as a hold or rotation period acquisition, but for now you should be looking for the fire exit.

Current Price: $12
Odds to Top 8: 2 in 5
Monday Price: $12

Vraska’s Contempt has seen a surprising amount of play in recent Standard decks given that it carries a CMC of 4. Turns out that in a format that revolves around powerful planeswalkers and threats that need to be exiled to be handled effectively, flexible removal that also adds a bit of a life buffer is at a considerable premium. This card has been as high as $16, and may fall closer to $8 this summer. There is a chance that post-rotation in October this is still one of the best removal spells in Standard, and that that fact pushes the card back over $14, but I think I’ll elect to stay clear in favor of safer plays. I think this is also a sell call, especially if you have copies beyond your personal play set.

Lyra Dawnbringer

Current Price: $20
Odds to Top 8: 1 in 5
Monday Price: $15, $30 if it wins

We have seen expensive mythic angels on the back of strong Standard play patterns before in both Archangel Avacyn and Baneslayer Angel. Lyra however has so far been on a downward trend, starting out around $30 and falling 50% or so since release. With 20% of Standard decks running Lyra, and in a couple of different archetypes, there is a shot that she can recover and push higher if her pilots start putting up big wins this weekend. Overall however, I feel safer with selling Lyra now, and potentially looking to reacquire in late summer once we have a sense of how the fall Standard meta will shape up.

History of Benalia

Current Price: $20
Odds to Top 8: 1 in 5
Monday Price: $20, $30 if it wins

History of Benalia is an interesting spec. This is a mythic card that is showing up in 20% of Standard decks, and the play is supported by 3-4 of inclusion in both UW control and Wx Aggro shells. That’s a strong pedigree, but in just one format. The real question is whether this can be just as good after rotation. If it is, this could be an excellent fall payoff, with the card spiking over $30 at some point in the next year. On this premise, I suspect I will be interested in $15 copies later this summer. On the other hand, if the white enchantment posts up strong Top 8 results and/or wins the weekend, the spike could come a lot sooner. Keep an eye on the Day 2 conversion rates to decide if that’s a decent play in the shorter term.

Will any of the teams find a way to unlock a hot new deck with solid game against the entire field? Will a fringe deck from the early weeks of the format suddenly end up perfectly positioned to take off? Will there be a chance to get in on a must-have card that shows early promise or will the hype train leave the bandwagon speculators out in the cold without enough buyers come Monday morning? Follow along as we explore Pro Tour Dominaria!

Editor’s Note: We will not be providing round by round coverage this weekend but we will provide relevant notes as the weekend progresses.

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

Casual Fridays

Entry Points for Dominaria

June 1, 2018 Cliff Daigle

The Pro Tour is this weekend, and I have to say that I have no idea what’s going to get played. Standard has a couple of really good decks, and a whole lot of good-but-not-great-but-damn-it’s-fun decks.

It’s also worth mentioning that we are a mere five weeks away from the Core Set 2019 prerelease.

Honestly, we are getting the Pro Tour this weekend, Battlebond is for sale the weekend after, then it’s GP Vegas, and then just a couple weeks to the new set.

That’s a roundabout way of saying that we are almost to maximum supply on Dominaria. It’s time to look at where some prices are, where they might be, and where I want to be buying, in anticipation of unloading them later with notable gains.

For all of these cards, I don’t expect a lot of movement downward in the next few weeks. The market has had time to determine how good or bad cards are, and lots of them have fallen to the lowest price they will be at.

It’s possible that these cards could fall another 10-15% if people don’t play much Battlebond and just dive back into Dominaria drafts when they are available at the local store, which is a risk I’m willing to take on given the forecast for these.

Also, we could see prices fall further based on future Dominaria needs. Let’s say Karn, Scion of Urza stays at his current price through the end of Dominaria, about $60-$65. It doesn’t take much foresight to see his price hitting $80 or higher around Christmas. Remember, Chandra, Torch of Defiance was once nearly $50, and that was in a set that had Masterpieces!

If Karn is that high, and Teferi, Hero of Dominaria climbs from around $35 to $50, which is totally reasonable given Teferi’s adoption in Modern, then we’ve got two jackpot cards.

Remember that the distributor price for boxes is about $75, so hitting on one of those two cards makes opening boxes a very appealing idea for stores, who would then have a ton of the rest of the set to sell. That might depress prices further, and it’s got me pretty concerned.

I freely admit I’m not going deep on anticipated Standard demand. While I am thinking about Standard, my background is as a filthy casual and there’s other tasty targets to stock up on.

Oath of Teferi (75 cents in nonfoil/$5 foil)

I freely admit that every time a NM Foil comes up on TCG under $3, I’m putting it in my cart. I dearly love what this card enables in one of the most common archetypes in Commander: Planeswalker Superfriends. Doesn’t matter which flavor of the deck you’re running, it’s either Atraxa or someone 5-color as the Commander and this Oath is busted like nothing else. Yes, The Chain Veil does the same thing and is colorless (and is in nearly 4000 decks), but this offers no drawback and affects the board when it shows up.

The easy way to tell if a card is going to be popular in Commander (aside from just checking EDHREC, where this is only in 200 decks so far) is if it’s a win-more card. This is absolutely a win-more card. You’re doing great if you have Planeswalkers in play, so now you get to double up! Winner! Don’t underestimate the dopamine rush of having this card in play and going through all of your ‘walkers to get max value.

4500 Atraxa decks, only 200 of any commander playing this. That will change.

Oath of Teferi is not going to go up in value anytime soon. Dominaria is super popular, but the supply of foils is going to be drained, slowly and surely, and won’t be this cheap for long. If nothing else, buy your personal copy now, and a spare or two. You’ll thank me when this is $10 in 12 months.

Mox Amber (currently $14/$45)

I admit that I thought this would fall farther, faster. The early adopters got theirs, I opened three in three drafts (one foil) and traded them all immediately, like they were radioactive. The curve for both versions has flattened out, though, and there appears to be just enough demand for its current leveled-out price.

The supply is gluttonous, though. There’s 350 non-shiny versions on TCG right now, and another hundred foils. That’s a lot of people who’d need to buy in to raise these prices. Plus, unbelievably, more people have entered this Mox into the EDHREC database than they have Oath of Teferi!

Mox Amber is showing up in the Aetherflux Reservoir deck that’s trying to blast people with the giant space laser, but while that’s janky fun, it’s living in an Abrade/Thrashing Brontodon world. That’s pretty rough, and most of the deck rotates out in September.

This has farther to go. I’m going to be patient with this, and I’m definitely not getting any until much later this year, when I’m looking for a range of $10/$30. I think Modern will break this card eventually, making the foils a safer place to park some value.

Damping Sphere ($2/$25)

Yep, that’s a foil multiplier of over 12x, and that’s entirely due to its rapid adoption in Modern as a super-popular sideboard card:

Gotta love Modern. Seven ones, a two, a four, and an X.

Note that while it’s in 12% of decks, the average number is just under two. That means people aren’t loading up on it, they are packing 1 or 2 and that’s it. Because it’s cheap and colorless and it wrecks entire strategies by itself, look at the variety of decks playing it:

Are we missing anything? That’s right, Big Mana decks aren’t playing this!

Control, aggro, combo, midrange…all the colors are represented too. There’s little reason not to have a couple of these around.

This card is going to act like a rollercoaster. It’ll fall out of favor, then Tron/Storm/Ad Nauseum/whatever comes back into style, then this will be the ubiquitous sideboard card again.

That said, this is the price when we are at peak or near-peak supply. We aren’t in Fatal Push territory, but right now is absolutely when you get the ones you’re going to use. It’ll be $5 by the end of the year, and the foils are going to be opened less frequently than you think. Spending $25 now might seem silly for a two-of, but in a year, the Sphere will be at least $40 in foil.

Cliff has been writing for MTGPrice for nearly five years now, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. He’s the official substitute teacher of MTG Fast Finance, and if you’re going to be at GP Vegas, look for the guy under the giant flashing ‘Cube Draft’ sign and he’ll have you drafting in no time!

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Monthly Archives: June 2018