MTGFinance Fall 2018 Rotation Priorities

September 20, 2018 James Chillcott 4 Comments

With September in full swing, we’re now just a few weeks away from the annual Standard rotation and the resulting shake up in card values that typically accompanies it.

This time around we’re facing the rotation of both the Kaladesh and Amonkhet blocks, both of which are notable for containing Masterpiece cards and a plethora of casual and EDH staples. Kaladesh in particular, as an artifact themed block laden with open ended synergies, seems destined for spec greatness.

A while back I proposed a framework for evaluating Magic specs based on their fundamental attributes, as described in detail over here in my article on Spec Scores. And while I (still) haven’t gotten around to fleshing out that concept in the form of a forthcoming web tool on this site, we can still borrow some core concepts to make sure we’re setting priorities rationally when reviewing the upcoming rotation.

According to my Spec Score framework, we want to consider the following when choosing our top picks at any given moment:

rarity
inventory levels
power level
casting cost
color intensity
# of copies played
# of formats played
uniqueness
current price vs. potential
recency of last printing
# of printings (# of foil printings)

In quick summary, your best bets are often going to be found among mythics that are near a tipping point and are played in high demand in multiple formats, offer a unique effect, are easy to cast, and are hard to reprint or still years from their first reprint.

With that in mind, let’s dive in and try to find some tasty targets in the Kaladesh and Amonkhet blocks!

Multi-Format Staples

Walking Ballista (Rare, Aether Revolt)

Current Price: $12
Target Price (12-24 months): $20-25
Formats: Modern, Legacy, Vintage, Commander, Casual

You’re going to have trouble finding a card more likely to make you money from the Kaladesh block past rotation than Walking Ballista. According to MTGGoldfish.com, this ubiquitous XX construct is now one of the top five most played creatures in Modern and it’s in the Top 20 for most played cards overall. Between Tron variants, Hardened Scales Affinity, Amulet Titan, Counters Company and B/R Vengevine usage it’s pretty clear that Ballista is likely to maintain a presence regardless of which way the metagame rolls. This dangerous war machine also shows up as a powerhouse role player in Legacy (Eldrazi Stompy, Death & Taxes) and Vintage (Shops). The card has also been reported in 5500 decks on EDHREC.com, so we’re talking a true multi format all-star here.

Based on all of that the question isn’t whether Walking Ballista will rise before it’s next reprint but whether we’re going to get a better entry point in six weeks than we have right now around $12. Personally, given how medium-low the inventory is at present (especially for a rotating Standard rare), I favor dollar cost averaging on this card over the next twelve weeks, opportunistically grabbing a few play sets every time a juicy Ebay or TCGPlayer coupon comes up. I grabbed 12 near $10 last night, and I’ll be aiming to acquire 40-50 before Xmas with an eye to unloading via a future buylist order.

By the by, foils are already significantly more scarce than non-foils here and snapping a few up near $35 on the assumption that they’ll top $60 by 2020 seems like an easy bet.

Baral, Chief of Compliance

Current Price: $4 ($11 foil)
Target Price (12-24 months): $10 ($25)
Formats: Modern, Commander, Casual

Baral, Chief of Compliance doesn’t even make the cut for the Top 50 most played creatures in Modern, largely because the only deck he ever shows up in is UR Storm. He is however a semi-permanent fixture of that archetype however, and typically played as a 4-of. Over in EDH, while not a popular commander per se, he does show up in 5000+ decks on EDHREC. Overall, I’m mostly interested in foils, though I liked those even better closer to $8. Snap off a couple of play sets for your spec box here, and a steep ramp will likely get you to $20+ in due time.

Spirebluff Canal (Rare, Kaladesh)

Current Price: $12 (foil)
Target Price (12-24 months): $25+
Formats: Modern, Commander

In terms of land cycles, the Kaladesh check lands are the most likely to do well for us on a longer horizon. Spirebluff Canal is only barely in the Top 30 lands in Modern, but it also shows up in a fair number of EDH decks so it’s still likely to show some healthy appreciation down the road. Given how many land cycles are backed up for reprint I also feel fairly confident we don’t see these again for at least three or four years.

There’s a lot more of any given fall set rare than any given small set rare, so I would tend to favor the foils here over the non-foils, especially given that Spirebluff Canal foils are already in relatively low supply. Picking these up under $15 and aiming for $30+ seems a good bet.

Side note: Blooming Marsh is also a decent, if lesser, target here, so if it fits better in your collection, consider those foils under $10 as rotation dumping picks up.

Inventors’ Fair (Rare, Kaladesh)

Current Price: $2.50/$15 (foil)
Target Price (12-24 months): $6/$30+ (foil)
Formats: Modern, Commander

I already got in on the foils of this quiet all-star at $6, but I’m not scared to scoop some more up closer to $15 this fall because I think it’s obvious we’re going to see them hit $30 long before a reprint. Ironworks Combo and Bridge both run a pair of these in Modern, as do a few other decks. More importantly, this is the 2nd most played card in all of Kaladesh, with nearly 15,000 registered uses on EDHREC.com. Feel free to add 20 or so non-foils to your spec box if you can get them closer to $2 than $3, since buylists are already close to $2 and your risk is minimal.

EDH Staples

Panharmonicon

Current Price: $5.00/$20 (foil)
Target Price (12-24 months): $10/$35+ (foil)
Formats: Commander, Casual

The question isn’t whether Panharmonicon is going to see constant demand from Commander players. The question is whether you still want in given that you’ve missed your best entry point. As the top card for the format from Kaladesh, this card is currently double its peak supply low of $2.50, and foils have also already more than doubled up from their low as well. $20 foil rares that are about to rotate are not automatic wins, but in this case I think that if you’re late you just tip your hat to those of us that spotted this card early and go ahead and jump in. It doesn’t hurt that Saffron Olive just ran an entire theme week for this card on his stream, and that won’t be the last time the card gets a boost from casual coverage or memes. To sell by the single copy focus on foils, and you’ll get to exit over $30 within the year. For non-foils the profitable hold might be closer to 18-24 months, but you will almost certainly get to exit en masse to a buylist.

Aetherflux Reservoir

Current Price: $3.00/$10 (foil)
Target Price (12-24 months): $6/$25+ (foil)
Formats: Commander, Casual

Aetherflux Reservoir is the very definition of a card that most Spikes would ignore at first glance, while the casual scene posts up for a long term love affair. The effect is very unique, specific to the Kaladesh setting and unlikely to be a reprint priority for years. Reservoir was actually a key build around in a Standard deck less than a year ago, but up until May of 2018 it was still under a $1. Fast forward through the typically slow summer months and Reservoir is heading into rotation season with a surprising amount of momentum. The card can already be outed to buylists for $1.50 ($2 credit) and retail is steady around $3. Given that the Reservoirs’ online inventory is relatively modest for a rotating fall set rare, and given that it has been reported in 11,500 decks or so on EDHREC.com (ranking as the 3rd most important card in Kaladesh for EDH purposes) I’d say odds are good that the non-foils will hit $10 long before a reprint shows up. Foils can be found under $10 right now, but the ramp to $20-30 is well defined, and because a reprint is most likely to eventually show up via a fall Commander set release, foils are even more insulated. Down the road, my best guess is that you will be looking to out non-foils via buylist en masse, and singular foils via the sales platform of your choice.

Disallow

Current Price: $7 (foil)
Target Price (12-24 months): $15 (foil)
Formats: Commander, Casual

As a three mana counter spell with no alternate casting cost, Disallow is unlikely to ever make waves in Modern, Legacy or Vintage. In Commander however, it is one of the most useful counterspells ever printed, due to the flexibility of being able to counter activated and triggered abilities. EDHREC.com has Disallow pegged as the most popular card in the format from Aether Revolt, with over 12,500 decks registered using the card there. Inventory levels for non-foils are quite high, so I don’t have high hopes for that option, but I’m definitely down to pick up some foils near $7 with a plan to out them in under 24 months for $15+.

Paradox Engine

Current Price: $15/$25 (foil)/$100 (MPS)
Target Price (12-24 months): $30/$50(foil)/$150 (MPS)
Formats: Commander, Casual

The first time I saw this card I was a little stunned it had been printed. While a 5 mana artifact seemed fairly unlikely to make waves in Modern, Legacy or Vintage, in the slower battlefields of EDH, this shone out as a very likely open ended combo piece. Fast forward eighteen months and Paradox Engine is the 2nd most important Commander card from Aether Revolt with only slightly less decks registered than Disallow. Most importantly, as a mythic its inventory is likely to drain much faster and as a colorless card, the number of combos it will fit into as time goes on is likely to continue growing. At present the foil multiplier is only 67% or so, and foils are already showing a scarcity driven ramp up toward $50, so I like those to double long before a reprint. Non-foils are also a solid option, and you may want to also consider snapping up a Masterpiece version close to $100, which seems very likely to beat $150 no matter when an eventual reprint hits (I’d guess 3-5 years away minimum).

Anointed Procession

Current Price: $5/$10 (foil)
Target Price (12-24 months): $30/$50(foil)
Formats: Commander, Casual’

As the white version of Parallel Lives, Anointed Procession is a near lock to appreciate over time. This is definitely an EDH/casual only card now that’s its time in Standard is over, but in kitchen table magic I would expect demand to be pretty steady for the next 3-5 years before a reprint shows up, likely in sync with the launch of a “tokens matter” style commander in a fall EDH release. Non-foil supply is pretty deep, so I like targeting foils as a double up within 18 months that could end up appreciating in half that time if the ramp heats up.

So there you have it, my priority pick-ups for fall rotation 2018. Hollar in the comments if you have a pet spec you think should have made the list or a good reason to ignore one of my picks.

Until next time, have a great time making and saving money playing our favorite game, Magic: The Gathering!

Jason Alt, Unlocked ProTrader

Unlocked Pro Trader: We’re Going To Need A Bigger Boat

September 18, 2018 Jason Alt

I like to try and predict the future and that’s not easy. Predicting the future allows us to buy tomorrow’s expensive cards at today’s cheap prices and if it were easy or obvious, everyone would be doing it already. Some obvious stuff has popped already.

Some (I think) equally obvious stuff that goes in the same deck has not popped yet.

The important thing to know if we’re not just sniping Kittycats like Phyrexian Dreadnought, a card that’s good in a deck that may or may not get built at all, is which decks will actually get built. I can try and rank them in terms of how good I think they are but that’s a little bit tainted by bias and while one man’s “bias” is another man’s “you know more about this than I do, I don’t even play this durdle format and I’m reading an article for your opinion” I think when we can use a stats-based, analytical approach, we should. Is there a way to develop a new statistical metric or find some other numbers-based approach to try and rank the 8 new Legendary creatures spoiled in the last week to try and see if one of them is going to do some more heavy lifting than the rest? Knowing which one to cover first will help me figure out which cards will go the fastest. When I guess, I’m not always right so if we can avoid that, let’s avoid it.

First off, I’m going to rank the 8 new commanders from best to worst based on my opinion just to give us a baseline. I don’t expect to be 100% correct on which commanders will have the most decks built around them, but I expect to be quite close considering this is my only job and I’ve been the only one doing this for a while so I should know what I’m doing. If I had to guess the ranking of the 8 creatures from most built to least built, here is what I would guess.

Lazav
Etrata
Izoni
Emmara
Niv-Mizzet
Aurelia
Trostani
Tajic

The other two are Planeswalkers and aren’t eligible to be your commander.

This was actually a little harder to do than I had anticipated. Lazav and Etrata could easily swap positions and Izoni and the rest of the top 3 could swap. The middle few were tougher to rank with Niv-Mizzet being almost exactly like commanders that already exist. Meanwhile Gerry T said Tajic was the best card in the set and I have him after Trostani who goes in every deck Emmara is in, probably but I have her ranked way lower. Both Emmara and Trostani aren’t likely to bump Rhys or other Trostani from their respective dekcs. This is tough. Aurelia may very well be the 4th best – it’s hard to know. Boros goes wide better than it goes tall but if you wanted to build Voltron, she could be good although there are 10 other better Voltron angels.

If you told me to rerank these tomorrow, my ranking probably changes. We need some more data.

Wisdom of the Crowds

One way to rank the buzz concerning these commanders in a world with no EDHREC data yet is to see how many comments are on the reddit posts for each commander. Reddit is a place where people go out of their way to be negative, so it’s possible that the worst ones will get the most comments but since we’re not making any decisions based on this data, but are merely looking at it to see if it tells us anything (and is therefore usable next time out) I say we give it a shot.

I may have done goofed, or maybe not. Tajic was only released today but has a ton of wind at his back with huge numbers in both subs despite only have been posted for 8 hours at the time of publication. Last week I thought Niv-Mizzet was worth his own focus article before the others despite the fact that he is very similar to a few Nivs Mizzet that were published before. I liked it but ranked it lower on my list to due its lack of novelty. I think there’s a chance if it’s the number 1 deck in a few weeks, it could be people updating old lists to reflect a new commander.

I didn’t take into account who spoiled the cards until I had already ranked mine and I think it’s interesting that the four I had ranked at the top were spoiled by heavy hitters in the community or were the PAX exclusive and the other four, it wasn’t clear who spoiled the card. That didn’t influence my vote because I didn’t know who spoiled what since I don’t pay attention to that sort of thing and didn’t even check until I was on reddit tallying scores. If those four don’t end up being the most popular, they’re certainly the 4 that WotC thought would be the most exciting to people hence the content providers they had spoil the cards. If you don’t think there is a pecking order, consider the fact that Tolarian Community College was given Lazav to spoil and when I asked for a card for EDHREC, I was given Discovery//Disperal.

The ranking based on number of upvotes to the post is different, but it’s odd comparing weeks-old cards to Tajic, which is 8 hours old (although how long does anything stay on the front page of the main sub? A day at most). Tajic also benefits from being Standard-playable, as does maybe Lazav and probably Etrata and maybe one or two others. It’s hard to compare apples to oranges like that, but we can try ranking by subreddit.

Clearly I way overvalue Izoni. In fairness, there was no one thread spoiling Izoni in the EDH sub, but 3 deckbuilding threads, the most for any commander. However, it’s possible everyone is less excited than I am. It’s also possible this metric is meaningless.

If you compare what I thought to what the EDH sub thought, I didn’t do too bad. I was a little iffy about a few in the middle, but both the EDH sub and I thought Lazav and Etrata were the most interesting, and that Niv-Mizzet was less exciting than the main sub did given that he doesn’t create a novel deck archetype but rather just updates an old one and we both liked Tajic less than the main sub.

Am I insane in thinking Izoni is amazing? Sure, lots of Golgari commanders are better and Izoni only benefits from having stuff in the yard and can’t bring things back like they like to do in Golgari, but I think Izoni is going to be in the top 3 built decks of the 8 when EDHREC starts getting in data. If I’m wrong, we’ll know to trust me less and if I’m right, we’ll know that my gut is better at filtering a ton of conflicting factors better than merely ranking raw numbers. There are a lot of possible explanations for the number of comments in the main sub for Niv-Mizzet, for example, considering all of them are dumb memes. No memes for Izoni, a new character, just people trying to build.

This was an interesting exercise and we’ll come back to it when we have data to see how I did. For now, though, you want picks and I guess it’s up to me to give them to you. I am going to assume I know what I’m doing and that reddit buzz means less than my years of experience and give you Izoni picks. There is no EDHREC data, but there may be a few kittycat tier cards that no one is scooping because he isn’t as obvious to non-EDH players as Lazav is. I could do Lazav, but I think the lowest-hanging fruit (Dreadnought) is scooped and the cards that are in the rest of the deck are commons and uncommons like Vector Asp or they won’t come clear until people start to build the deck. I think we have some time on Izoni stuff and maybe I’ll do Lazav next week when we have the full set. Anyway, here we go.

Ugh. It’s been 20 minutes since I typed the paragraph “here we go” and I haven’t found anything all that exciting.

It looks like every deck is a pretty generic “Golgari Goodstuff” deck and Izoni is just a chance to draw some extra cards, trigger Grave Pact, get recast for a bunch of tokens late in the game and generally just… be boring. Boring is fine because what I call boring, other people call “consistent” and they think it’s a good thing and there are more of them than there are of me which would make someone with less self confidence think they’re wrong but I’m NOT wrong, everyone else is wrong, consistent is boring. It’s also boring from a finance perspective because there is no real new tech here. You know which cards are good with Izoni’s ETB ability? Primal Vigor, Doubling Season and Parallel Lives, the cheapest of which is like $15.

Grave Pact, Deathreap Ritual, Fecundity, Beastmaster Ascension, Craterhoof… the deck basically builds itself. Want to get spicy? Add dredge cards. Add Deadebridge Chant. If Izoni hits, you might get 5 or 10% on cards already in tens of thousands of decks. If it doesn’t hit, there weren’t any good targets anyway. Gross.

Then I found my Coolstuff colleague Stephen Johnson had brewed with Izoni already and included this pic at the end.

Fine. Here’s some damn Lazav picks, sheesh.

Necrotic Ooze is to Lazav what Quicksilver Elemental was to Mairsil.

Expect a bigger jump for Ooze since it’s a known entity meaning there aren’t copies lying around in $0.25 boxes. Ooze is already concentrated in dealers’ hands from the last time it popped based on being a combo card. I think Ooze hits $5 minimum and stays there and if you spend $100 on Ooze and don’t double it, I’ll be pretty surprised. That would mean Lazav didn’t hit (like Mairsil didn’t) but it somehow hit less than Mairsil. Quicksilver Elemental wasn’t a kittycat, it was a card only brewers figured out the same as Ooze. I can’t fathom you not making obvious, slam dunk money on Ooze. I will give you all a week to buy copies then I’m buying in – how’s that sound?

Similarly, this is declining a bit and I expect it to perk back up a bit. It’s not as tasty a buy as Ooze, but people will want this card, too. Lazav is going to be pretty similar to a lot of decks from the past and we can already see people putting the pieces together. This is one of the pieces. It’s less useful than Ooze, has a higher buy-in but it’s also on the Reserved List and that means Team Rudy is interested.

Not much to say here. Lots of copies given the number of printings, but they’re around $2. At that price, I prefer Ooze.

There will probably be more picks once we get EDHREC data, but for now, this is my opinion on the non-kitty cats in Lazav decks, a topic you watched me try not to write about then settle for in real time, you lucky so and so’s. Enjoy your triple up on Ooze and use some of your money to pay for Pro Trader access, will ya? Thanks for reading, nerds. Until next time!

Watchtower

The Watchtower 9/17/18 for ProTraders – Plan Your Specs

September 17, 2018 Travis Allen

By: Travis Allen
@wizardbumpin

Don’t miss this week’s installment of the MTG Fast Finance podcast, an on-topic, no-nonsense tour through the week’s most important changes in the Magic economy.

Guilds of Ravnica spoilers march on, and everyone is having a grand ol’ time with what we’re seeing each day. No question that the top card of the set so far is Assassin’s Trophy, the new Abrupt Decay that destroys any permanent (then gives back via Path to Exile). Expect to see the ripples of Trophy in every format beyond Standard. Modern, Legacy, EDH, cube, and possibly even Vintage will have cause to care about an unconditional two-mana removal spell that gets rid of absolutely anything. Time to pick up a few more copies of your favorite basics, because every deck is going to need a few extra in the new Trophy meta.

Spirebluff Canal (Foil)

Price Today: $13
Possible Price: $50

Of all the cards we could have anticipated would carry a $100 foil price tag coming out of Scars of Mirrodin, I don’t think Blackcleave Cliffs was anyone’s first pick. Why would it have been? BR lands have long been in the lowest tier of lands, along with WR and maybe WB. This, despite BR being a relatively common color pairing in major formats. For the longest time in Modern, Esper fetches and shocks were more expensive than their Jund counterparts, despite seeing appreciable less play.

Of the Kaladesh fastlands, Spirebluff Canal is best poised to become the new Blackcleave Cliffs. UR has long been a powerhouse combo, whether as a standalone, as a component of Jeskai, one of the most popular wedges of competitive Magic, or Grixis, a long-standing fan favorite. There won’t be a Modern event in which you can reasonably expect not to sit across from a Spirebluff Canal ever again.

Pack foils are available in the $12 range, but not many. And there aren’t many in stock in general. These will be $25, probably this year, and it won’t’ take long before they crest $30.

Winding Canyons

Price Today: $23
Possible Price: $60

As the reserve list continues to be a popular target for accelerated financial action, we want to keep an eye out for anything that seems underpriced given its utility value. There’s plenty of stuff that’s cheap but is unplayable; we want to find the cards that actually have a reason to be put into play in a normal game of Magic.

Enter Winding Canyons. Winding Canyons is “only” in about 3,500 decks, but that doesn’t concern me in the slightest. First, many players aren’t aware of the card. It’s from Weatherlight, and lacks some of the name brand recognition of other cards, so there isn’t quite as much brand value. Second, it’s not cheap. At $23 or so, a lot of players that would like a copy are getting priced out. Does that sound weird for EDH? While there’s no question that many cards are expensive solely because of EDH demand, the truth of the matter is that the lion’s share of players putting decks together simply aren’t going to fork over hundreds of dollars for each new commander they put together. It’s a silent majority type of thing.

Playing creatures as though they had flash is wildly powerful in EDH. Waiting until the end of your last opponent’s turn, activating Canyons, dropping half your assault force, and then untapping with what are essentially hasty creatures is going to be enough to end the game regularly. Not to mention all the places that flashing in a surprise blocker or similar effect is going to ruin someone. (Try flashing in an Elesh Norn some time.)

Winding Canyons has a similar supply distribution to foil Spirebluffs. Roughly 30 copies on TCGPlayer, a quick ramp from the initial price, and a stiff breeze away from doubling in price.

Beastmaster Ascension (Foil)

Price Today: $10
Possible Price: $25

It wouldn’t be a Watchtower without looking at EDH enough. Beastmaster Ascension is a green enchantment that lets you permanently +5/+5 your team — and not just the ones in play now, but any that you play later. In Standard, this was two mana too many to see competitive play, and it was tough to both turn on and then continue to get value out of. All the numbers change in EDH, where you can easily cast Ascension and then immediately swing with seven creatures, activating it in the same turn, and having a brutal army. Those 20 or 30 1/1s, which were overall not particularly threatening, are suddenly dealing lethal to everyone at the table at once.

If this sounds like some crap nobody cares about, think again. Beastmaster Ascension is the second-most popular green enchantment, behind only Sylvan Library. You’ll find this bad boy in nearly 17,000 decks. If you’re playing green (who isn’t) and you’re attacking (most are), this is in your list.

While there are five or six printings of Ascension, there’s still only the original pack foil. They can put this in Commander products until the end of time, but without another foil printing, this is going to keep climbing. Supply is also quite shallow. Grabbing these at $10 today is sure to payoff within three to eighteen months.

Travis Allen has been playing Magic: The Gathering since 1994, mostly in upstate New York. Ever since his first FNM he’s been trying to make playing Magic cheaper, and he first brought his perspective to MTGPrice in 2012. You can find his articles there weekly, as well as on the podcast MTG Fast Finance.

Brainstorm Brewery

Brainstorm Brewery #304 Penance & Price Checks

September 14, 2018 Jason Alt

Corbin’s (@CHosler88) feet are finally being held to the fire by Jason (@jasonEalt), DJ (@Rose0fThorns), and patron Dave Wasser for Chipgate. The crew even brought in special guest Josh Lee Kwai (@JoshLeeKwai) of Game Knights and Command Zone to witness this special occasion. The crew also help to get you ready for rotation with things to pick up and sell.

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Monthly Archives: September 2018