All posts by Cliff Daigle

I am a father, teacher, cuber and EDH fanatic. My joy is in Casual and Limited formats, though I dip a toe into Constructed when I find something fun to play. I play less than I want to and more than my schedule should really allow. I can easily be reached on Twitter @WordOfCommander. Try out my Busted Uncommons cube at http://www.cubetutor.com/viewcube/76330
Casual Fridays

Long-Term Thinking

2 Comments

So the Pro Tour was last weekend, and now we are in for a long lonely spell until Kaladesh…

…oh yeah. We are still in the throes of a very expensive summer to be a Magic player.

From the Vault: Lore is coming out next weekend, and I can’t remember the last time one of these was so ho-hum. Sure, it’s the first foiling for some of these, but the niche of people who need a Dark Depths or an Umezawa’s Jitte is relatively small. Plus, neither of those are particularly expensive cards.

At least FTV: Angels last summer has some sweet new art Akromas to tempt us with. This looks more like FTV: Barely Worth Retail.

Conspiracy spoilers have already started (the Ghost Assassin!!), and that I’m pretty stoked for. I want to warn you now: Don’t get caught in a trap like I did and start trading for all the assorted ‘draft matters’ cards like Cogwork Librarian. Those haven’t budged in price at all since that set came out, much to the chagrin of my foils.

But what I want to talk about this week is a topic I’ve only recently come to appreciate: how Wizards R & D plants seeds across sets for the stuff that’s coming up.

To get the sense of what I mean, I want to talk about a card that was good when it came out, good with the sets that came later, and good with the last set it’s legal with.

Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy is an awesome Magic card. It’s cheap, could block if you wanted or needed, lets you cycle through your deck, and then turns into a planeswalker who locks things up nicely. It’s a powerful card all by itself, and strong enough to make waves in Modern and Legacy, not just Standard.

Consider this your regular reminder to pick these up at sub-$30 prices and be prepared to reap the profits in a year. If decks are powering out Gurmag Angler and Tasigur, the Golden Fang on turn two or three, then JVP has a real chance to be flipped by then.

What else is Jace good with? Madness. Delirium. Self-mill, like Gather the Pack and Grapple with the Past. Cards that want to be in the yard, like Kozilek’s Return and Prized Amalgam. Only because hindsight is 20/20 can we see how good it is with a range of abilities and card mechanics.

Until very recently, I hadn’t learned to appreciate the sneaky-brilliant nature of the game designers that work in Seattle, but I’m aware now. More to the point, I don’t want to get caught out. I want to have a better time anticipating what is good and will remain good in the future.

A few weeks ago, when I was guesting on MTG Fast Finance, I picked foil Eldrazi Mimic at about $6 as a long-term hold, because I love how good Legacy Eldrazi decks are. Still do, as a matter of fact. A couple weeks after that, my compatriot Travis Allen picked nonfoils at 75 cents to a dollar, because they are good with these huge Emerge creatures, but both of us missed a very salient point:

Eldrazi Mimic only cares that the creature is colorless. It doesn’t have to be an Eldrazi, or something with devoid. It could be an artifact creature, and oh look, Kaladesh is going to have an artifact theme!

This is brilliant forethought from Wizards, and once you start looking at it, and thinking about it, you realize that they have been doing this for years! Remember the glory days of Mono-Black Devotion? Gray Merchant of Asphodel plus Nightveil Specter? Who knew that hybrid symbols could be so incredibly relevant? Wizards did.

I don’t claim to be smart enough to have figured out all the plants ahead of time. I do know that I am taking a hard look at cards that notice colorlessness (like Sanctum of Ugin) versus those that are specifically looking for Eldrazi (Kozilek’s Return). I truly love when a plan comes together, like the UR Spells deck that for some reason isn’t playing Chandra, Fire of Kaladesh. It seems like a better Thermo-Alchemist, and playing her is a total blast. I’m enjoying Standard for the first time in a long time. Powerful cross-block synergies is what Wizards is planning for, building, and anticipating. Unlocking that knowledge, and looking for those interactions, is something I want to get better at.

Also, I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Shadows over Innistrad gave us token, disposable artifacts right before an artifact-themed block. Tireless Tracker is probably the best, but Tamiyo’s Journal or Magnifying Glass might become super-relevant.

The two sets after Aether Revolt, if I were to speculate, will have something to do with sacrificing. I don’t know what, but I know that Shadows over Innistrad and Eldritch Moon certainly are encouraging us to discard and sacrifice creatures, and I won’t be surprised at all if that’s the theme in nine months or so. Probably it will be enough to reinvigorate our interest in Emerge or Voldaren Pariah or something like that.

ProTrader

PROTRADER: PucaPicks for August 11, 2016

6 Comments

Hello and welcome to PucaPicks!

Each week, I’m going to go over cards that are undervalued, some of the cardboard you should send away right now, and some of the things that have had a lot of movement.

My goal is to help you buy low and sell high, increasing your points just by having the right timing.

For each card, I’m going to give you the current points and the foil price as well.

Today, I’m going to focus on Battle for Zendikar and Oath of the Gatewatch. We only have about eight months left of them being Standard-legal. I’m not sure what the eighteen-month period is going to do to these prices. Are people already selling out? Are they holding on desperately?

 

The rest of this content is only visible to ProTrader members.

To learn how ProTrader can benefit YOU, click here to watch our short video.

expensive cards

ProTrader: Magic doesn’t have to be expensive.

Casual Fridays

Liberation

3 Comments

I don’t have a lot of spare time. Maybe you do, perhaps you have hours you’re willing to wile away in endless pursuits of things that consume your time.

I don’t have a lot of extra space. Maybe you do, you might be living over your own personal Batcave, walls and racks of neatly organized cards.

I’m going to share with you a viewpoint that is going to cause some controversy, and why I’m wrong, and yet why I’m right.

I’ve stopped keeping cards after Draft and Sealed events, except for all rares and a select few uncommons. I find a kid at the store, or I leave them in a pile. I don’t want any more commons. I don’t want to sort cards. I don’t want to keep them in a box for years. I don’t want to hope that one day, these will be $2 uncommons.

Right now, at the same time, I’m sending out commons and uncommons from old sets on PucaTrade.

These two viewpoints might seem in direct opposition. I’m currently mining my old draft chaff for money commons and uncommons (good lord, did I draft a lot of Hedron Crabs and Blighted Agents!) but I’m not keeping them now? What gives?

I am going to walk you through what makes an old common/uncommon worth something, and why I think almost nothing in the modern day is worth it.

Criteria #1: Unique mechanic/keyword

For an older common or uncommon to make it to a $2 retail price, a lot of things have to go right. The first of them is that people have to want it years after it was printed. Very few commons and uncommons have enough power to be worth it.

Hedron Crab is worth it. Steppe Lynx is not. Both of these are one-drops with awesome landfall. I realize that the Crab is uncommon while the Lynx is a common, but it’s twenty cents vs. $3.50. The difference is that there will always be a place for milling someone out of the game, and just attacking for four on turn two is so boring. Lynx even sees more tournament play, but every casual player who sees the Crab, well, their eyes light up and their mind gets blown.

Criteria #2: Age/supply and reprints

Let’s face it: the game has grown enormously since Zendikar. It’s grown a whole lot even since New Phyrexia. There are tons and tons more packs opened in the present day, and while I wish I could give you exact numbers, I can’t. I know that every year, Wizards has bragged that the big Fall set was the best-selling set ever, and while I’m not sure how the new two-block model is going to fit in, that’s a lot of growth over five to seven years. We know that in talking to investors, there’s percentages of growth thrown around each year, but that’s inexact. So I’m not going to try and pull real numbers out, I’m content to say that the game is a lot bigger.

The simple truth is that there’s a lot less of older cards around, but I’m not even talking older as in Odyssey, I mean even Scars of Mirrodin block. The 6:2:1 model also applies, making third-set cards especially in demand sometimes.

Here’s an example: Stasis Snare vs. Journey to Nowhere vs. Silkwrap. The Journey is a whole white mana cheaper, and that’s big, big, super important. Removal used to be a lot stronger, and now we get conditional where it used to be universal. Silkwrap is interesting, as it got up to $3 at one point but now it’s back to a dollar.

Reprints are another big factor in a card’s price. Let’s look at the graph for Worn Powerstone:

Powerstone

It was in Urza’s Saga, and then one duel deck in 2010 (right at Magic’s renaissance) and it was $5, until it got three years straight of reprints: Commander 2014, 2015, and then Eternal Masters. Even with all that, the original is still $2 and in case you didn’t know, I love picking up the foil in the $12 range. Very safe and it’s got excellent growth potential.

Criteria #3: Powerful then and now, high demand

Finally, a card has to be good. Not just good. Great. Interestingly, removal spells aren’t always in this category, though Lightning Bolt is fascinating. Thirteen printings (with three of those having foil versions, two different promos, a range of arts!) and it was almost always a common!

I’m willing to listen to discussions about the most printed cards to keep a price, I think this is #1 on the list. It’s good, it’s cheap, it’s versatile. This is what I use to determine if I should keep an uncommon or common at the end of a draft.

 

So with this in mind, what am I keeping after a draft?

Duskwatch Recruiter: Could have been a rare easily, great on either side.

Erdwal Illuminator: Unique effect, will spike when they use Investigate again.

Geistblast: It’s a Fork stapled to a Shock. Gotta love it.

Graf Mole: Cheap and good blocker.

Heir of Falkenrath: cheap and aggressive, not as good for discarding as Oona’s Prowler but unique.

Lambholt Pacifist: Proven as a cheap and big creature.

Neglected Heirloom: I’m betting on casual Werewolf decks here.

Rise From the Tides: Huge payoff for spell-based decks.

Geist of the Archives: Good blocker and very relevant ability.

Graf Rats/Midnight Scavengers: I love all the Meld cards, long term. When are they going to have a chance to do these again?

Haunted Dead: Two-for-one on one creature that can bring itself back at instant speed.

Lone Rider: Lifegain decks are going to love this jerk.

Noose Constrictor: It’s going to be a $2 uncommon in six months.

Weaver of Lightning: Nothing else does this, so I’m interested.

That’s pretty much it. I don’t bother with anything else anymore, because the time and energy of sorting and storage aren’t worth it for me. Today’s sets aren’t going to be rare enough to be worth it in six years. And even if they are, and I find myself paying $10 for a set of Thermo-Alchemist, then I’ll think about sorting a 5000-count box and sifting through and thinking “Man, I’m glad I didn’t waste the time and energy.”

Casual Fridays

Stuff You Should Never Buy Again

5 Comments

This week, I want to share something personal with you:

treasure chest

This is a paper chest filled with greeting cards my wife and daughters and I have been adding to for a few years now. Anniversaries, wedding cards, kids’ birthdays, you name it.

We give this chest to my toddlers when they need an indoor activity. When we are cleaning up, I check the price tags and I cringe to think how much money people have spent on these, and conversely, how much I’ve spent on cards for others.

In Magic, there are lots of things to spend money on. Some of them are avoidable. Some aren’t. Let’s go over some of the things you should never buy again.

I want to be clear that if you’re into collecting some of these things, that’s awesome. I’m glad you’re finding a fun niche related to this game, but I’m focusing on what you need to play.

#1: Single Booster Packs

Listen, I’m with you. Holding that pack, thinking about what it could be, anticipating that sweet foil, come on, come on, jump to the rare…(crap). Feel free to fill in the name of any card worth less than a dollar for crap in the previous sentence.

Buying loose boosters at your store is at best scratching a lottery ticket. I’ve written about this before and the odds are never in your favor. Not even this premiere week. You want a card? Buy that card. Buy the playset. It’ll cost less. Even in foil.

This is even true for the uncommons you want. If you buy a box of a set, odds are that you’re not going to get four of a certain uncommon. Drove me batty when that stuff would happen.

Buying loose boosters online is even worse. Mapping packs is a thing. Weighing packs to extract foils is a thing. Peeking through the plastic at pre-Ice Age packs, to pluck out rares, is a thing. Stop buying boosters!

#2: Life pads

I get it. Writing your life total on the match slip is so very unrefined, like you’re struggling for scraps. Also, it’s a small space and you can’t take notes on what happens, cards to look out for, all sorts of things.

You know what you need? A fifty-cent spiral notebook from the grocery store. A small legal pad. Or better yet, one of the huge stack of life pads that vendors give away at big events. One Grand Prix will take care of your needs for years.

I’m not going to link them, but if you spend $12 on a paper pad that nicely bound or $30 on an e-writer, I’m going to know you’re someone with more money than sense. A life pad that can break?? Come on.

#3: Dice

I’m all for sweet dice. I’ve got a couple of Iron Dice here someplace that I can’t put in a bin with other dice because the Iron ones crack the plastic of the others.

Know what else I have? Multiple bags of plastic dice and assorted counters/beads/stones.

And this is after I used to spend a lot of energy tracking down places that would buy old spindowns! Used to be a lot of profit in that, but not anymore.

You need a few dice and a couple of stones. That’s it. Tokens are all over the place, scoop some up after a draft. People leave dice on the floor or on the table all the time. If you spend money on dice, you’re buying tiny art pieces, and that’s cool, but all you need is five D6 and you’re good for 99% of games, unless you play Commander games that get out of hand.

#4: Playmats

Now this is going to piss some of you off. You’ve got playmats that were awesome prizes, that have favored art, or just carry significance. And I’m with you: I’m quite fond of my MTGPrice playmat.

Know what I’m not so fond of? My stack of GP mats. I kept the first couple, and then I realized that I was never going to use them, and I started selling them at the events, which has been great for me. Haven’t regretted a moment of it.

Is there a market where people buy and sell these mats? Absolutely. The art on a mat can make a big difference to its value, such as the two GP Vegas mats.

I’m all for buying the mat you want. And that’s it.

Every extra mat you have is just something you need to store and/or move. Don’t keep them. I’ve yet to see one rip from just being used, even if you fold it instead of roll it.

#5: Fancy deck boxes

I appreciate the art and craftsmanship of Etsy, I really do. There are some amazingly awesome things that you can get for dice, or decks, or even your whole cube.

I have to tell you, I’m hard on my Magic stuff. Boxes get put in the backpack, other things land on them, I squish it when I don’t take off my backpack when sitting on the bus…and so on. Perhaps you’re someone who takes better care of your things than I do, and if you sit down with me, unfold three trays and have everything immaculately organized, I might ask how much it was.

Mostly, you’ll be like the rest of us and have a stack of different things and be mostly put together, and be able to do so for far less money. Deck boxes are useful but replaceable for cheap, on the rare instances that they break. These are also often giveaways at a GP or other event, and if you want to personalize them, I suggest a layer of primer first.

 

 

Look, I’m not trying to make you feel bad about stuff you’ve bought that brings you joy. You’ll notice I left off binders and backpacks/bags from this list, because you’ll find what you need quite easily. Sleeves as well–I turn mine over frequently.

What I want to stop you from doing is spending money on stuff you don’t need to spend money on. Spend your money on all sorts of cards, just don’t go buying accessories that aren’t as needed.