By: Cliff Daigle

So when Magic 2015 was spoiled, I told you all some long–term price behaviors that I expected to see over time. A week after that, I checked in with those cards. With Khans having been out for a month and M15 being a format that almost no one is drafting, let’s see where these cards are at.

I like to check in with how those predictions are going, and evaluate what’s been good and bad. This is the process: No one is right 100% of the time, but there’s lessons to be learned from the successes and the failures.

Ajani Steadfast – I said to pick up at $5 or less, and he’s at $13 after a high of $20. He’s on the trajectory. I do like him as a casual pickup for the decks with lots of planeswalkers…once he gets to a low enough point. He has seen a little Standard play, and that might be enough to keep him near $10.

Garruk, Apex Predator – My goal is going to be to pick him up at $10, but he’s currently at $15. I think I’m going to revise this a bit: I like picking him up at $15, because he seems like something to evaluate in Abzan decks. He’ll never be a four-of, but showing up in a few sideboards might nudge his price back north of $20. If that happens, the spike might be big, because casual players have already taken a lot of these out of rotation.

Jace, the Living Guildpact – Sultai is not a popular enough clan to warrant playing him. His price looks like it will continue to drop, despite a ‘discard opponent’s hand while you draw seven’ ultimate. We’re seeing lots of Murderous Cut and Dig Through Time, but the one card is just too slow. I had higher hopes for him.

Liliana Vess – Current card seeing a little play, with lots and lots of printings behind her. I’d be surprised if she fell much further (She is a 1-2 of even when played) or rose much higher (There’s a ton of back product, all the way back to being a Lorwyn rare) so there’s little value to be gained here currently. Totally in line with expectations.

Nissa, Worldwaker – Well, I was wrong. Very wrong. I said “I do not expect big things out of her price” and it turns out she’s the heavy hitter of the set. She’s more than twice the price of her nearest competition! This is because she was the most popular upon release, combined with a never-very-large inventory. Her price is going to stay high for the duration of her time in Standard, because of the high initial price and the memory of that. I would be surprised if her price went below $25 before the end of next summer.

Perilous Vault – I said I’d like this card below $10, and here it is. It’s been all the way down to $4, before seeing play at the PT and the GP. I maintain that it is an excellent casual card, but seeing the level it can get to, I think I’m going to be very patient and wait till rotation, picking these up under $5.

Sliver Hivelord – I said it would get to about $7 as people got their single copy for Sliver EDH decks, and here we are at $7 and change. It had a chance to be a player in Standard over the summer, but with rotation, it’s a casual-only card and one that won’t go up for a while.

The Soul Cycle – Soul of New Phyrexia is indeed about double the others, and has gotten to half its previous price of $10. The benefit to this Soul is that it’ll go into any casual deck. I feel it’s even good enough for Cube, as untapping with it invalidates so many strategies! Soul of Innistrad has a chance to go up, as a millable source of card advantage, but the rest seem destined to fall to near-bulk prices.

The Chain Veil – I was too optimistic. I knew it wouldn’t be much, but while I said it would be closer to $4 than $10, I didn’t see it being a buck. Just too specialized. Notable, though, that the foils are all the way at $11, a classic indicator of a card’s casual appeal.

Ob Nixilis, Unshackled – I said it would never be more than a couple of dollars, and here it is at $1.50. I do have to report that it’s just as good in Commander as I had hoped!

Scuttling Doom Engine – This is interesting. It’s $4 despite getting no publicized play. Maybe it’s a big card in rogue brews. Maybe it’s an easy addition to all sorts of casual artifact decks. Maybe someone is stockpiling them in anticipation of the world figuring out that this was printed as the anti-Elspeth card. I thought it would be lower than it is, so I haven’t tried to trade for any yet.

Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth – It’s seeing professional-level play, so the power is there. The Abzan decks especially like it, allowing fetchlands and Temple of Plenty to tap for black. Not to be overlooked is the damage it saves from painlands as well. It’s going to hold at $5 for a while and start creeping upwards over time. I plan on trading for some of these and just setting them aside for a long while.

Waste Not – I told you to dump it at $7, saying it was a $2 card. I was dead on, as it’s at $2.32. It will take a powerhouse discard spell to bring it into Standard play, and if the card is good enough for Standard, it won’t need this to help it out.

Hushwing Gryff – It hasn’t really moved from being $3. Siege Rhino only sort of cares if someone played this against you on turn four. Satyr Wayfinder gets in play before the Gryff. There are some neat abilities to counter, but this is more a Commander card.

What was I most wrong about? Nissa. I underestimated her immediate effect on Standard. I overestimated the supply. She will be a somewhat-played card for her duration. Never too heavily, mind you, but she will show up. There is a case to be made that the more Siege Rhino is played, the worse a 4/4 trample land looks. Time will tell!

The other thing to note is that M15 has very low-value cards. It’s not as bad as Dragon’s Maze, with one big find and everything else just sort of there, but with only four cards over $10, one of the best values in M15 will be Stoke the Flames, a surprise uncommon. The lesson there is that four damage is good, especially when your creatures help you pay for it.

By: Cliff Daigle

I have two simple questions for you today: First, what is the monetary value of your collection?

We have a tool for this here at MTGPrice; if you’ve entered every card you own into our system you’ll have access to your collection’s value as it fluctuates, as well as telling you what you could get on buylists for your cards.

For me, the value is all in my EDH decks. I’ve added value to them pretty consistently over the past few years, and I’ve got more than one with a retail value of over a grand. You may think that’s bragging, you may think that’s underpricing it, but $10 here and $40 here adds up fast in a 100-card deck. Cubes are another item that holds a lot of value in a small space, especially if you’re someone who spent the money to foil it out.

If you haven’t done so before, take stock of your decks and your binders. Don’t forget about the large boxes of cards that you have somewhere, the bulk that may or may not be picked and sorted.

Depending on how long you’ve been at this, that value could be small, or it could be large, or it could be enough to pay the down payment on a house.

My second question to you: Are you prepared for something to happen to part or all of your collection?

I’m not trying to alarm you. I’m trying to give you an idea of how incredibly fragile these pieces of cardboard are, and how ridiculously simple it is to keep your investment safe.

Three years ago, I was at my old LGS. (Local Game Store) I was upstairs playing EDH as was my wont, when someone came into the store looking to sell some cards. The guy on duty for that was a local L1 judge, who noticed that the cards for sale made up a five-color Sliver deck, and the deck was fully outfitted with foils, duals, fetches, the works. Pretty pricey, even then, and exactly in line with a deck that a store regular had told everyone was stolen recently.

This judge contacted the police, who arrived quickly, and the regular was called in too. The store and the patrons were all paused in what they were doing, watching this unfold. We, the players in the audience, were salivating over the chance to see a card thief get their deserved punishment. The stolen deck was still sleeved in custom sleeves, and apparently there was a picture of the regular, holding up these sleeves. A slam-dunk!

An hour later, the alleged thief was walking out with the deck in hand. No charges, no problem, a simple “Don’t ever come back to this store” as the only punishment that could be given out.

Think about that for a moment. Think about being that guy, seeing your hard-earned and beloved deck in someone else’s hands, and you have no legal recourse.

Our delight in this game is based on mere pieces of paper. These do not bear any identifying marks; no serial numbers, no barcodes, no certificates or proof of anything. If you do decide to mark them, you’re going to depreciate the value considerably. Once your cards are out of your possession, you’re going to have a difficult time proving ownership.

Theft is a huge problem for our game. There are very few Magic players who haven’t experienced theft on some level. I’ve been through it on more than one occasion, once having someone dip a hand into my long deck box and grab a random handful, while my attention was on a game.

There are instances of cards being stolen out of backseats, out of trunks, out of storefronts, and out of binders. It’s a long-standing rule that you don’t let someone else look at your binder while you’re engaged in a trade, because there’s a chance of having a card dipped out of your pages. Letting someone take a look through your EDH deck carries the same risk. I sympathize, as I love showing my cards off, but it’s got the potential to lead to problems.

Don’t forget that other problems can lead to damage to your precious cardboard. Sunlight can melt a binder left in a car. Earthquakes can cause your neatly organized binders to fall out of the bookcase and onto the floor, bending or breaking your cards. Floods and fires can destroy your collection utterly, down to that box of basic lands.

So what’s a player to do? There are some very basic steps you can take.

#1: Renter’s Insurance

You’re required to carry auto insurance by law. Renter’s insurance is far cheaper and will probably get used less, but when you need it, you REALLY need it. Yes, it’s going to require some paperwork and organization, as well as regular updating (Did you just trade for a MP Beta Scrubland? Add it in!) but it’s worth every dollar and every hassle.

I don’t want to link specific companies, but start with your auto insurance company. Call them and ask if they offer renter’s insurance as well. It will not be expensive, unless you have a massively valuable inventory, in which case you really ought to insure it! If you’re willing to spend $100 on Ebay for a Japanese Foil Akroma, Angel of Wrath from Legions, then you should be willing to spend some money on the insurance.

I want you to seriously think about the value of your collection. If it is very valuable, then you should protect it. Only if you have very low value should you ignore insurance. Most of us will be under $200 a year, and you can think of that as a little more than a draft per month. Different companies will require different levels of paperwork, and your experiences may vary.

This is a simple, cheap, and effective way to protect yourself from any type of loss. When I realized what my decks were worth, I signed up for renter’s insurance. There’s a protection to all of your belongings, not just your cards. It’s not expensive, especially compared to the cost of repair or replacement.

Insuring my cards, as well as my belongings, gave me a strong sense of relief. It’ll make you feel good too.

#2: Basic Security

This weekend is Grand Prix Los Angeles. I am willing to bet a large amount of money that after the event, or even during the event, there will be a Reddit post or a tweet sent out or something where a Magic player is asking for help finding their stolen or lost deck/Cube/binder. It’s guaranteed and it’s mostly preventable.

Don’t have multiple trades going on. Don’t leave extra decks/cards on the table. Don’t leave your bag unattended, and when sitting, wrap your leg in the strap, so in case of someone trying to grab and run, they pull your leg. Don’t brag about stuff in your car. Don’t flash the bling left and right.

It’s helpful to have bracelets and tags to match up the owners of bags, but it’s a matter of seconds to take the cards out and then ownership is difficult to determine. Please don’t have these things happen to you, at GP LA or an SCG Open or anything. If you’re a dealer, have sufficient staff. If you’re not a dealer, don’t bring thousands of dollars of cards and leave it in your car, because cards have been stolen from targeted individuals.

#3: Advanced Technology

There are a number of things that are being sold or developed to deal with the security of your cards. DeckTracker is one, LassoTag is another, and they are designed to help keep things near to you.

This is handy, but not as effective as simple security. I’m pretty good with technology, but I can’t get my car to consistently pair via Bluetooth with my phone. I don’t know how effective these methods are, but they are a backup to the basic ideas.

#4: Community Help AFTER something happens

If, heaven forbid, your deck/cube/binder/bag is stolen, you have some last-minute options. Reddit often has those threads, or Facebook posts, or Twitter, or other social media tools. There’s a chance that you’ll get it back. There’s a chance that Wizards will send you some stuff to make up of some of your loss.

There’s a chance of all that. It’s not for sure.

I’m not trying to be an alarmist, but I am trying to worry you a little. You should be worried if you’re wearing thousand-dollar jewelry, and you would worry if you had $500 in $20 bills kept inside a little plastic box in your backpack and everyone around you knew you put it in there.

Be appropriately concerned, and protect yourself and your investment.

And have fun at that Grand Prix or FNM!

By: Cliff Daigle

Two months ago, I shared my long–term binder with you.

Soldier is $3 and Downfall is at a shade over $11. These are in line with the targets I set when I traded for these and when I posted about it.

If you followed along with me, good job! We’ve done it.

…now what?

Well, there’s options. I’m a trader. I don’t often sell to buylists but I could make decent money doing so. I’m not sure what cards I’d target at this moment for buying, but I’ve learned that as a casual financier, once I turn cards into cash, it’s out of the cycle. If I keep my value as cards, then I can increase the value of my collection, not just the money in my account. 

I understand that lots of other people, including my fellow writers, love to make money and it’s totally fine if that’s your goal. If I sell my nine Hero’s Downfall for $8 each, that’s $72. I would likely turn that into a tank of gas and part of a grocery trip. I’ve sold cards before to get monetary gain, I’ll do so again, but I prefer to wait until that’s necessary.

It’s my choice to keep value in cards, so buylisting is out for me.

If I’m not selling, that means I’m trading. I’ve spoken of PucaTrade in the past and this is what it’s best for: selling high on cards. I confess that for me, as a primarily casual player, I want foils and I am as yet unwilling to spend extra money per month to be able to get foils. If I wanted to build up points for the next thing I’ll be targeting, this would work very well. I’m still considering it.

Another option is to utilize buylists with trade-in credit, and I’d do this to get certain cards that I want badly. I’m still looking for a foil Soul of New Phyrexia, and I’m still working on my foil Conspiracy set, plus I need a foreign foil Akroma, Angel of Wrath, etc. There’s a good chance that I do this, so I get exactly what I want. If I am getting a decent trade credit bonus (usually 25%-30%) then I’ll take that for harder-to-find cards.

Most likely, though, I’m trading to other people, via deckbox.org, or MOTL, or in person. I’ve learned that the best thing you can do when you walk into FNM is to have some of what’s good right now in Standard. I have a few specific EDH needs from Khans, but I mostly expect to indulge in value trades: I’ll be trading the currently-high Hero’s Downfalls for non-Khans and non-Theros cards that are more likely to keep value.

I’m avoiding Khans because most of those prices are falling. I’m avoiding Theros because most of that set is already going up in price, Hero’s Downfall being an example.

One other factor must be considered: has the card hit its ceiling? It’s about doubled since I traded for it, so I’ve earned my value no matter what. I might get greedy and see if it hits $15 again. That’s right: look at the chart for Downfall and see that not long after its debut, it was at $20! I think that $20 is overly optimistic, but if it gets to $15, there’s a large margin I’m missing out on.

Keep in mind that Downfall hit its peak within a few weeks of the Pro Tour and the arrival of Mono-Black Devotion decks. Will Downfall be as popular now? I hope so.

I’m certainly holding everything until after this weekend’s Pro Tour. I’m hoping that more of my picks pan out, and if someone debuts a deck featuring 4x Prophet of Kruphix, you’d better believe I’m buylisting that stack. I can trade ten Downfalls, I don’t want to go through the energy of trading more than thirty of Prophet.

Happy trading, and enjoy the coverage of the Pro Tour!

By: Cliff Daigle

A little more than a year ago, I gave you a list of things to pick up and it’s time to check in and see how I did.

Magic 2013

Checklands (Sunpetal Grove, etc.)
Prediction: $5
Actual: $2

Verdict: Miss. I thought that with a year of new players looking for them, the price would go up. Supply is huge, though, after four printings and they have hardly budged in the past year.

Thundermaw Hellkite
Prediction: $12
Actual: $11

Verdict: Hit! It’s a big, fast, cheap Dragon who clears the way. It’s great in any format, and your eyes still go wide when it’s on the wrong side of the table.

Rhox Faithmender
Prediction: $3
Actual: $3

Verdict: Hit! Easy enough, as lifegain is one of the most fun effects to build a casual deck around. I’m looking to see Felidar Sovereign reprinted soon, maybe even in the coming Commander decks.

Sublime Archangel
Prediction: $10
Actual: $9

Verdict: Hit! Great in token decks, great in Angel decks. Gorgeous art, too, and that never hurts in the long run.

Omniscience
Prediction: $20
Actual: $9

Verdict: Miss. Despite the combo with Enter the Infinite and seeing play in Show and Tell decks, the price has stayed flat this entire year. I remain optimistic, but I don’t know when the bump will arrive.

Vampire Nocturnus
Prediction: $7
Actual: $5

Verdict: Miss. It’s crept up a little in price. Not enough for my purposes today, though.

Elderscale Wurm
Prediction: $3
Actual: $2

Verdict: Miss. It’s gone up to $3 this year, and the spread is getting close to null, meaning that buylist prices are almost the same as retail value. I might need to give it another few months, but today, it’s a miss.

Rancor
Prediction: $3
Actual: $2

Verdict: Miss. The price hasn’t budged, likely due to the multiple printings.

Thragtusk
Prediction: $6
Actual: $2

Verdict: Miss. Ugh. It’s actually gone down in price during the past year, indicating it’s not being used very much at all. Maybe it was just too oppressive in Standard and no one wants to relive that.

Reliquary Tower
Prediction: $1
Actual: $2.50

Verdict: Hit! And then some! These never made it as low as I’d hoped, but if you got them at under $1, they have doubled up in value. If you have any, I’d trade them soon, though, because these are easy to reprint.

Innistrad

Mikaeus, the Lunarch
Prediction: $3
Actual: $2

Verdict: Miss. Another card who was above my target earlier this year, he’s come back down to earth.

Garruk Relentless
Prediction: $10
Actual: $4

Verdict: Mega-Miss. He hasn’t been adopted in Modern, but this is a card that at least will be tough to reprint due to being double-sided, because it’s difficult to mix two-sided cards into a print run.

Enemy Checklands (Clifftop Retreat, Sulfur Falls, etc.)
Prediction: $8
Actual: $4-$7

Verdict: Miss. They have ticked upward, but not as much as I’d hoped. They aren’t seeing much Modern play, something I overestimated.

Geist of Saint Traft
Prediction: $25
Actual: $15

Verdict: Miss. While his price did hit $30 earlier this year, it’s trickled back downward in the months since. Having this as the WMCQ promo didn’t help at all.

Gavony Township
Prediction: $2
Actual: $2

Verdict: Hit! I was close on Kessig Wolf Run, but the Township was dead on.

Dark Ascension

Increasing Devotion
Prediction: $2
Actual: $0.50

Verdict: Miss. The price has stayed flat. There are just so many good token makers to choose from!

Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
Prediction: $8
Actual: $4.50

Verdict: Miss. But to be fair, when she hit $9 around Easter, I got rid of all of mine. Hope you did too!

Geralf’s Messenger
Prediction: $5
Actual: $3

Verdict: Miss. Awesome Zombie or not, he just isn’t seeing play.

Gravecrawler
Prediction: $6
Actual: $5.15

Verdict: Hit! Or close enough. he was a cheap pickup at rotation and has paid off nicely. Remember, I’m not looking for huge gains in one card, I’m always trying to increase the overall value of what’s in my binder.

Mikaeus, the Unhallowed
Prediction: $7
Actual: $9

Verdict: Hit! He’s actually the most valuable card in Dark Ascension. I don’t think he’ll be in the Commander decks this winter, since we’re already getting Gisa herself. There’s a chance this breaks $12-$15 by Christmas.

Drogskol Reaver
Prediction: $1.50
Actual: $1.75

Verdict: Hit! It costs seven, but it’s so darn amazing! It’s nice that I was so close on the value here.

Huntmaster of the Fells
Prediction: $10
Actual: $4.50

Verdict: Miss. I thought he’d see more Modern play, but just getting value isn’t good enough in that format.

Vault of the Archangel
Prediction: $4
Actual: $1

Verdict: Miss. I was wildly optimistic here. The price has stayed flat, so my many copies are just lounging around.

Sorin, Lord of Innistrad
Prediction: $20
Actual: $7

Verdict: Miss. The duel deck reprint hurt. I think he might be around $15 if it wasn’t for the extra printing.

Avacyn Restored

Avacyn, Angel of Hope
Prediction: $25-$30
Actual: $30

Verdict: Hit! And for all the reasons I laid out. I’m warning you now, though, I’m pretty sure she will be in the white Commander deck this winter, at which point her price will take a hit.

Cathars’ Crusade
Prediction: $2
Actual: $1.50

Verdict: Hit! It’s almost buylisting for my prediction of $1 now. Wait a little longer, and you’re there.

Entreat the Angels
Prediction: $10
Actual: $9

Verdict: Hit! It’s not blowing up Legacy (though $50 for the foil is a result of the Miracles deck) but it’s powerful and flavorful.

Terminus
Prediction: $7
Actual: $3.50

Verdict: Miss. But to be fair, it just got reprinted in FTV: Annihilation, which has kept the price down.

Deadeye Navigator
Prediction: $1
Actual: $.75

Verdict: Hit! I’m calling it a hit because he’s been at $1.50 as recently as three weeks ago. There’s a lot of EDH players who want this card banned because of the combo shenanigans it enables, so watch out for that.

Tamiyo, the Moon Sage
Prediction: $20
Actual: $15

Verdict: Miss. The philosophy of picking up planeswalkers while they are cheap is sound, but Tamiyo just hasn’t grown enough in price…yet.

Temporal Mastery
Prediction: $5
Actual: $6.50

Verdict: Hit! Yup, extra turns is good, no matter how much mana it is to cast. It’s important that you just get the extra turn, without any extra hoops, such as Savor the Moment.

Zealous Conscripts
Prediction: $3
Actual: $0.50

Verdict: Miss. Still an awesome card, but not even seeing play with Kiki-Jiki.

Craterhoof Behemoth
Prediction: $5
Actual: $10

Verdict: Hit! I didn’t think he was good enough for Legacy Elves, but the results don’t lie. Cast, bang, dead. Awesome in any format where eight mana is an option. (Watch out for some Modern decks with this too.)

Gisela, Blade of Goldnight
Prediction: $10
Actual: $12

Verdict: Hit! This is why I’m so confident in Aurelia, the Warleader getting big over time as well. It’s worth mentioning that she was at $20 for a while this year.

Sigarda, Host of Herons
Prediction: $6
Actual: $6

Verdict: Hit! Do I know my casual Angels or what?

Bruna, Light of Alabaster
Prediction: $5
Actual: $2

Verdict: Miss. I mostly do, it seems. She is only good to build around, not add to other decks, and that’s important to remember.

Alchemist’s Refuge
Prediction: $2
Actual: $0.50

Verdict: Miss. I love this land, I do, but it just hasn’t been in demand. We’ll see if Khans changes that, with all the new blue-green good cards.

Cavern of Souls
Prediction: $20
Actual: $18.50

Verdict: Hit! It’s been much higher recently and this is one of the cards that has really grown for me. It hit a low of about $10, and I traded for as many as I could at that price.

Slayers’ Stronghold
Prediction: $3
Actual: $0.50

Verdict: Miss. Wow, I really was wrong about the lands, aside from Cavern.

There you have it! I was right on 42% of these (16 out of 38) and that would be closer to even if I counted the ones who beat their prices earlier this year. Lots of cards spiked in April and have trickled down since.

Overall, it’s clear I was too optimistic on two types of cards: lands and Planeswalkers. I now know to not go too crazy on the lands, and to lower my expectations when it comes to the planeswalkers. This is something to think about, especially with Jace, Architect of Thought being at sub-$5 along with Vraska the Unseen. Instead of expecting them to double in a year, I might instead think they will grow to a more moderate $7.

I also note that reprints and promos were a factor for some of these. This is a risk we’re going to run with everything not on the Reserved List, you need to be prepared for reprints to affect the price of non-foils.

It’s also reassuring that only a couple of these went lower than the price I recommended them at. I didn’t lose my shirt to any of these. Yet, anyway.

Thanks for sticking with me for this past year. I hope you’re tracking some of your predictions too!