All posts by Danny Brown

Danny doesn’t want to pay to play Magic, and he doesn’t think you should, either. By using common sense, applying basic truisms, and exercising a modicum of patience, he will show you how to maximize every dollar you spend on Magic: The Gathering. Even if you don’t have a huge budget for gaming, with some smart decision making and a little time, you too can afford to build top-tier decks or draft on a regular basis. Danny’s resume includes writing for Quiet Speculation and serving as editor-in-chief for Brainstorm Brewery. He’s a Limited enthusiast with a special fondness for Cube, and has an earnest belief in the inherent superiority of 40-card decks (it’s okay, Constructed players. You’re special, too). Have a question or comment? Reach out on Twitter at @dbro37.
Danny Brown, ProTrader

PROTRADER: The Mythics of Fate Reforged

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Last week, we went over the mythics of Khans of Tarkir. With depressed prices due to peak supply and fetches driving everything else in the set down, mythics are great, low-risk investments that have the potential to see exponential growth due their relatively short supply.

Although Fate Reforged and Dragons of Tarkir lack the downward pressure of fetch lands (apart from the rare FRF pack), they are both also at peak supply. Also keep in mind the huge effect that Draft has on card supply. Assuming equal number of drafts fired from last fall to now (which is almost certainly not accurate, but let’s roll with it), we have roughly this proportion of each of the sets in this block:

  • Khans of Tarkir: 55% (3x drafted in the fall, 2x drafted in the winter)
  • Fate Reforged: 22% (1x drafted in the winter, 1x drafted in the spring)
  • Dragons of Tarkir: 22% (2x drafted in the spring)

For context, that means that if one million Siege Rhinos were opened in drafts, there would only be 400,000 Tasigurs. And since Tasigur is a rare and mythics appear at a rate of one-in-eight, there would only be 50,000 mythics from FRK or DTK, compared to 125,000 of each mythics from KTK. Keep in mind that these numbers are all purely hypothetical—Wizards does not provide sales data to us plebs—but using these rough proportions can show you just how stark the difference in supply is from a fall-set rare compared to a spring-set mythic: in this case, a ration of 20 to one.

With all this in mind, let’s take a look at the mythics from Fate Reforged today. We’ll hit Dragons of Tarkir next week for you completionists out there.

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ProTrader: Magic doesn’t have to be expensive.

Danny Brown, ProTrader

PROTRADER: The Mythics of Khans of Tarkir

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We’re just a couple months from Battle for Zendikar, and we’re about to see some major spikes coming on cards we’d all but forgotten about. This fact is indisputable—it’s which cards that are going to see an increase that can (and should) be argued.

Khans of Tarkir is an interesting spot with its prices. With a cycle of fetch lands in the set, the price of everything else is depressed. However, the number of drafts of Khans (and thus boxes opened) is about to sharply decrease. Since last fall, Khans singles have been priced roughly to balance the MSRP of a booster box—if singles go too high, vendors will just open boxes themselves; if singles go too low, nobody buys boxes. Once Battle for Zendikar hits, though, Khans singles will fall more in line with the reality of Standard demand (among other formats), and cards that we previously took for granted are going to get pricey.

Today, we’ll be taking a close look at the 15 mythics from Khans of Tarkir. These have remarkably depressed prices, as illustrated by the most expensive one being Sorin, Solemn Visitor—which has a Fair Trade Price of only $7.85. There’s opportunity here. Let’s find it.

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expensive cards

ProTrader: Magic doesn’t have to be expensive.

Danny Brown, ProTrader

PROTRADER: Making Magic More Convenient for You and Your Customers

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A common trope in the Magic community these days is that of players quitting (or threatening to quit) Magic Online in favor of Hearthstone. There seems to be universal recognition that Hearthstone is an inferior game, and although the client for HS is better than MTGO, it’s not perfect by any means, as anyone who has played Blizzard’s game a fair amount can tell you.

What, then, is causing this constant stream of players threatening to quit Magic Online in favor of a lesser game? Anyone who has played Magic Online for an extended period can answer this one: convenience and time commitment. Hearthstone allows players to jump in, get playing within minutes, and spend as little or as much time as they want on the game. Magic Online, on the other hand, requires a minimum time commitment of at least two hours for anything other than two-player queues, which have been historically poor value—and you’ll probably have to sell some cards to get some tickets to buy some packs in order to get the best price on your entry fee.

People love convenience. They’ll always take the path of least resistance, even if it means moving to a lower-tier product. Adapting to this knowledge can help you better serve your customers and better attract players to sell you cards. You can also takes steps to save Future You™ time, making your life more convenient.

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ProTrader: Magic doesn’t have to be expensive.

 

Danny Brown, ProTrader

PROTRADER: Why the Pro Tour Results Don’t Matter As Much As You Think

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For our purposes as financiers, the results of this Pro Tour don’t matter that much. Granted, if you were holding a whole bunch of copies of Abbot of Keral Keep or Demonic Pact, they certainly matter in the short term, and as Sigmund illustrated yesterday, you should definitely be cashing in on these specs sooner rather than later.

But in the grand scheme of things, here’s the situation: half the cards in the format are going to rotate in less than two months. Basing your decisions as a financier on what happened last weekend is short-sighted at best, but we should absolutely take a look at the top Standard decks to see if anything will remain largely intact post-rotation.

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expensive cards

ProTrader: Magic doesn’t have to be expensive.