All posts by Guo Heng Chin

Guo Heng started kitchen table Magic as a kid, during Urza's Destiny. He played intermittently and casually until Innistrad, where he began to grind the competitive circuit. It was then that he became hooked on the magical substance that is cardboard crack and it dawned upon him that Magic finance is a good way to subsidize his habit. Guo Heng started writing for MTGPrice in October 2014. A competitive grinder himself, he focuses on the mtgfinance of competitive Magic. Catch him on Twitter @theguoheng.
Finding Value

Gods Part II: The Born of the Gods Pantheon

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By: Guo Heng

A month-and-a-half ago, I wrote about the long-term potential of the Theros gods. Today we are going to cover the five gods in the set that comes after Theros, aptly named Born of the Gods.

The Theros block gods are financially interesting because they are splashy, unique cards exclusive to that block. They are popular in EDH, both as commanders and in main decks, and a couple of them rank among the most popular commanders in the format. The recent no-tuck ruling also bolstered the gods’ prospects as commanders.

In short, the gods are cards with immense casual appeal and are unlikely to be reprinted due to their quintessential  flavor and Theros block-exclusive Nyx-ified frame, ingredients for a rosy long-term growth recipe. I could not describe the gods better than Corbin (@chosler88) did in his column two weeks ago:

Either way, these are basically mini-Eldrazi that will see growth over time, even if it’s not the momentous growth that Emrakul and friends saw.

-Corbin Hosler

We have scryed what the future potentially holds for the Theros gods in the first part of this series, and today, we are going to take a look at the five gods in the Born of the Gods pantheon.

Ephara, God of the Polis

Ephara Price

Ephara, God of the Polis is the cheapest god among the Born of the Gods crew. Ephara’s ability is unassuming and requires a deck to be built around it, which narrows the number of decks that can run her as one of the 99.

However, Ephara does make up for her shortcomings by being a pretty fun commander to build around. Her draw-a-card ability triggers every upkeep, which allows for a slew of ways to exploit the ability, be it using flicker effects—a popular effect among the casual crowd—flash creatures, or token generators, like a fellow god in the Theros pantheon, Heliod, God of the Sun. Ephara also happens to be in a color identity with the highest number of wrath effects, which synergises well with her indestructibility and the fact that she is an enchantment. Check out Danny West and David McDarby’s deck tech and Versus video featuring Ephara on Star City Games from a while back to get an idea of the plethora of ways you could play around with Ephara’s ability.

Non-foil Epharas are a good pickup at $1.45, which is pretty close to bulk price for a Standard-legal mythic. The high multiplier on her foils, currently sitting at $13.01, points towards her EDH demand. I would probably wait until rotation or at least later in summer to pick up foil Epharas.

Karametra, God of the Harvest

Karametra Price Graph

Karametra, God of Harvests is unbelievably cheap at $2.02 for a second-set card with EDH and casual appeal. Creatures and ramp are popular strategies in EDH and Karametra embodies the best of both.

Non-foil Karametras are certainly a good pick-up at $2.02. Foils at $11.56 are a bit more steep, and as with Ephara, I would wait until the summer lull or rotation to pick up my copies. Foil Karametras have a moderate level of demand, reflected in her current spread of just 35 percent, unlike the 54 percent spread of foil Epharas.

Karametra has the potential to end up as one of the more expensive Born of the Gods gods in the long run. She is easy to build around and fits into a wide range of decks. Oh, Karametra is quite a fun commander to pilot, too.

Mogis, God of Slaughter

Mogis Price Graph

The price for Mogis, God of Slaughter baffles me. Mogis does not strikes me as a particularly popular commander, nor does he seem to fit in a large variety of decks. Yet, Mogis is tied with Xenagos, God of Revels for the most expensive god in the set, sitting at a price of $4.74 with a spread of just 30 percent!

Unless Mogis decks are more popular than I expected, I am honestly stumped as to why the card commands this price. I was expecting him to be at the very least cheaper than Karametra. At the moment, I would steer clear of picking up non-foils and foils ($14.60) and wait until rotation to see how Mogis’s future price fares.

Phenax, God of Deception

Phenax Price Graph

Phenax, God of Deception‘s reception within the EDH community was lukewarm. While milling is a popular casual mechanic, and Phenax is the God of Mill™, his ability requires a deck to be constructed in a way that would be absolutely powerless (walls can’t attack) without Phenax, but insane with Phenax on board. Granted, Phenax decks do get better with the removal of tuck (Phenax players were probably happy to hear that tuck is exiled from EDH rules), but he may be better off being in Lazav, Dimir Mastermind or The Mimeoplasm decks as Redditors in the r/EDH thread above suggested.

It seems that Phenax’s price of $3.95 is buoyed solely by casual demand, but the intensity of the demand is questionable with Phenax’s spread of 49 percent. I certainly don’t think Phenax is worth picking up right now. I am not even sure if he is a god you want to invest in for the long run come rotation.

Xenagos, God of the Revels

Xenagos Price Graph

Last but not least, we have the newest member of the pantheon, Xenagos, God of Revels. As I expected, Xenagos is one of the most expensive gods in the Born of the Gods pantheon, by which I mean he has a non-foil price of $4.63. Xenagod has an explosive ability that appeals to Timmies, Johnnies, and Spikes, is a powerful commander himself, and also works well in Prossh, Skyraider of Kher, and Atarka, World Render decks for one-turn-kills with commander damage. Putting all those together, it is not surprising that Xenagod is one of the most popular commander cards from Born of the Gods, second only to Courser of Kruphix. Xenagod’s EDH and casual demand is reflected in his foil price of $18.19, the most expensive among the Born of the Gods pantheon.

Again, non-foils are at $4.63 with a 38 percent spread as of writing. I think the window to pick Xenagod is not here yet. There is a chance that he may drop further closer to rotation, which would make him a very good pickup then. However, if he retains this price at rotation, just snap up whatever copies of Xenagod you can find at that time. He is the best Born of the Gods god in terms of EDH and casual appeal and I suspect he will be the most expensive of the pantheon a few years down the road. The rest of the Born of the Gods pantheon is playable (maybe except Phenax), but none has the wow factor Xenagod evokes.

The same approach applies to Xenagod foils, which have a spread of 34 percent at the moment.

TL;DR

In summary, I think both non-foil Ephara, God of the Polis and Karametra, God of Harvests are good pickups from right now until rotation. I am curious about the source of Mogis, God of Slaughter’s demand, which propped up his price to the level of the resoundingly popular Xenagos, God of Revels, and I would stay away from him for now, lest my specs get slaughtered. Phenax, God of Deception seems to be the least popular of the pantheon and that makes him an unattractive pickup. Xenagos, God of Revels seems destined to be the most expensive of the lot, but the window to pick up foil and non-foil copies has yet to arrive.

Echoing Corbin, I don’t think the gods’ prices will hit Eldrazi heights, but I am confident most of them will not remain below $10 in the long run—and some may even break the $20 mark on the back of EDH and casual demand.

Thank you for reading. Share your thoughts below or catch me on Twitter at @theguoheng.

ProTrader, Unlocked ProTrader

UNLOCKED PROTRADER: The Meta Report 9 – 14 May

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By: Guo Heng

Welcome back to another instalment of The Meta Report, where we track the evolution of the metagame week-by-week and its financial implications. This week we would only be taking a look at the Magic Online metagame as we’ve already had a look at last week’s sole paper event, Grand Prix Paris in the previous instalment of The Meta Report.

Without further ado, here’s the table for the most popular decks on Magic Online daily events over the past week.

The Magic Online Metagame for 9 May to 14 May

DeckTotal
Abzan Aggro38
Mono Red38
Esper Dragons34
GW Collected Company Megamorph27
Abzan Control24
Mardu Dragons23
Atarka Red20
Abzan Megamorph13
Jeskai Tokens12
GR Dragons8
GR Devotion8
GW Devotion7
UW Heroic6
Ojutai Bant Megamorph5
Temur Superfriends5
Abzan Reanimator4
Jeskai Aggro4
Grixis Dragons3
Mono Green Collected Company3
UB Control3
UW Control3
Abzan Rally2
GB Megamorph2
Mardu Midrange2
Mardu Aggro2
BR Dragons2
GW Megamorph2
Temur Midrange2
Sidisi Whip2
4 Color Collected Company2
RW Heroic2
Mono Black Aggro2
Abzan Warrior w/ Collected Company1
Sultai Rally with Purphoros1
Jund Dragons1
4 Color Dragons1
Mono Green Aggro1
GR Aggro1
BR Aggro1
Jeskai Tokens w/ Monastery Mentor1
UR Control1
GB Sacrifice1
Temur Aggro1
Jund Midrange1
Jund Whip1
UG Collected Company1
Bant Heroic1
RG Bees1
Caleb 4 Color Good Stuff1
BW Warriors0

The top dogs remained mostly unchanged from last week’s meta, with Abzan Aggro, Mono Red and Esper Dragons retaining their spot as the three most popular decks. However, this week saw Green White Collected Company Megamorph (a rather inelegant name for the Green White Aggro deck which utilizes the megamorph synergy in Den Protector and Deathmist Raptor and runs four copies of Collected Company) and Mardu Dragons gaining traction. As last week’s article pointed out, Mardu Dragons was well-positioned in the metagame and it is no surprise to see the deck nabbing a larger portion of the metagame last week. Mardu Dragon’s rise could also be attributed to it being one of the few tier one decks that is cheaper than the rest: you do not need Dragonlord Ojutai or Deathmist Raptor – two of the most expensive Dragons of Tarkir cards online (and on paper too) for Mardu Dragons.

Unfortunately the rise of Mardu Dragons has little financial implications as the components of the deck are either cheap or stagnating in price. Soulfire Grand Master experienced a slight bump over the last couple of days but her buylist price remained the same, pushing her spread to 56%. Nothing to see there.

On the other hand, Collected Company is solidifying its presence in Modern. The ongoing Magic Online Championships featured a Modern portion and Collected Company was the only Dragons card to make a splash in the 16-player Modern metagame. Twelve copies of Collected Company were found in three decks comprising of two archetypes:

Jasper De Jong Melira Not So Super Friends
Jasper De Jong Melira Not So Super Friends
Olle Rade's Elf Company
Olle Rade’s Elf Company

My call on Collected Company is still a sell call. I expect its price to remain at its current price of $9.65 or slightly dip in the face of Dragons of Tarkir redemptions hitting the market in a few days. Even if you decide to hold it, I don’t think you would stand to lose much if its price does not grow. I suspect Collected Company would retain a price of $8 – $10 for the next few months, especially with the swap to Modern PPTQs in June.

An old mythic that is seeing a bit of a resurgence in the metagame is Perilous Vault. The online meta last week saw Esper Dragons adopting a few copies of Perilous Vault to combat the persistent Deathmist Raptor and Den Protector synergy. With just a few months left in the meta, I am not expecting Perilous Vault to spike again, but it may be worth holding on to your copies to see if its adoption translates into paper, which could bump its price up by a few bucks as it is a core set mythic.

The Rise of Sarkhan?

Temur Ramp surfaced a couple of weeks when Andrew Cuneo brought the list to the Standard Super League. The deck appeared once or twice in the daily events in the two weeks following it. However, last week saw five copies of Temur Superfriends finish in the money in the daily events.  Below is a list from Magic Online streamer Bahra.

Bahra Temur Superfriends

Temur Ramp features a suite of nine Planeswalkers including a playset of Sarkhan Unbroken. Living up to his name, the new iteration of Sarkhan has yet to be broken. While Sarkhan Unbroken’s abilities will always be a two-for-one, his tricolor casting cost significantly restricted the type of decks that could run him. Temur Ramp, a midrangey Superfriends deck with ramp capabilities, seems to be the shell that fits Sarkhan Unbroken best in the current Standard metagame.  The only qualms I have with the deck is its flavor fail: Ugin would kill Sarkhan with his -X ability.

Sarkhan Unbroken Price

On a downward trajectory since the release of Dragons, Sarkhan Unbroken dipped below $10 briefly and is starting to climb although his buylist remained the same (spread of 38%). However, at $12.76, Sarkhan Unbroken looks to be a superb buy right now. Dragons of Tarkir drafts are going to be drastically reduced in a few weeks’ time and if Temur Ramp ramps up to tier one, Sarkhan could easily be a $20 card. I am putting a strong buy call on Sarkhan Unbroken.

The Last of the Dragonlords (To See Play)

While the most popular decks in the Magic Online metagame remained roughly the same as the previous week, a couple of decks featured a spicy new addition.

Dragonlord Dromoka in Abzan Megamorph
Vitorlima’s Abzan Megamorph
Dragonlord Dromoka in GW Devotion
Manwithplane251’s Green-White Devotion

Can you spot the new tech in those decks? Here’s one more list:

Dragonlord Dromoka in GW Devotion 2
Pokerswizard’s Green-White Devotion

Can you see it yet? I guess the picture gave it away. Dragonlord Dromoka is finally seeing some mainboard action. Up till last week, the only time she saw action was as a singleton in a sideboard of Robert Vaughn’s Abzan Megamorph deck which went 9-0 at Grand Prix Toronto.

Dragonlord Dromoka Price

Dragonlord Dromoka’s price has been on the uptick for a couple of weeks.  If Dragonlord Dromoka’s promotion from a sideboard singleton to two-to-three copies in the mainboard of Abzan Megamorph and Green-White Devotion translates into paper, she could very well demand a price tag of $15. While I am confident about Dromoka hitting $15 if the tech above does well on paper this weekend, I am not sure if she could hit $20, with the other Dragonlords, Deathmist Raptor, Collected Company and Narset Transcendent (whose price is also experiencing an uptick) soaking up the bulk of Dragons of Tarkir‘s set value.

Grand Prix Shanghai is going on as of writing and Japanese brewmaster, Makahito Mihara brought a sweet Dragon Megamorph brew that featured the megamorph synergy and a host of Dragonlords including two Dragonlord Dromoka in the mainboard. Mihara piloted that deck to 9-0 on day one but unfortunately, he fell short of top 8 by one or two wins (annoyingly while the top 8 has been announced, the results page has yet to show round 15).

I have been bullish on Dragonlord Dromoka’s ability to make her mark in Standard, and I remain so. She has a throng of useful abilities for just six mana. She is a card you would want to see in your hand against every single deck in the current metagame. Her lifelink and seven toughness makes her exceptional against the aggro decks, and makes her exceptionally difficult for decks without access to Valorous Stance, Abzan Charm or Hero’s Downfall to handle without losing card advantage. Her uncounterable clause and Grand Abolisher clause are useful against Esper Dragons, plus she blocks Dragonlord Ojutai favorably.

I am putting a trade for call for Dragonlord Dromoka. I tend to err on the conservative side in making calls in this column. While I am tempted to put a buy call on her due to her highly favorable position in the metagame right now (and a good chance of exploding into the metagame), $10 is a steep buy-in for a card whose most probably short-term ceiling is $15. Then again, there is a real possibility for Dromoka to hit $20 if she becomes prevalent in the metagame after the supply of Dragons dries up to a trickle in a few weeks’ time. She has a high spread of 50% at the moment, there is time to secure your spec copies in trade.

Oh and secure your own playset now if you plan on playing with Dragonlord Dromoka. Gone are her time below $10.

That is all for this week. Join me again next weekend for another instalment of The Meta Report. Do share your thoughts and questions in the comments section below or catch me on Twitter at @theguoheng.

 

ProTrader, Unlocked ProTrader

UNLOCKED PROTRADER: Foil Redemption Finance: The Numbers for KTK, FRF & DTK

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By: Guo Heng

With the full spoilers of Modern Masters 2015 unveiled last Friday, it seems criminal for an mtgfinance writer not to write about Modern Masters. Believe it or not, there is something else I am more excited about this week. Plus, my fellow MTGPrice writers wrote about Modern Masters extensively over the past few days. Jared Yost (@gildedgoblin) talked about the ups and downs of Modern Masters 2015, Travis Allen (@wizardbumpin) discussed the financial implications of the cards present in the set and listed a few cards to pick-up, Derek Madlem (@GoingMadlem) wrote about the potential impact of the set on individual reprints and yesterday Corbin Hosler (@chosler88) has some interesting things to say about adopting a next level approach to pinpointing which Modern staple could be the next Inkmoth Nexus.

I am excited because Dragons of Tarkir redemption has finally begun.

 

After last Wednesday’s Magic Online downtime, players could finally purchase redemption orders for Dragons of Tarkir sets. I have only hopped on the redemption bandwagon a few months back. The first set I ever redeemed was redeemed a Khans of Tarkir foil set to get my hands on foil fetchlands and shiny UR Delver components like Monastery Swiftspear and Treasure Cruise (this was prior to Treasure Cruise sinking under the weight of the banhammer in February). In March, I redeemed a foil set of Fate Reforged to get my copy of foil Ugin, the Spirit Dragon (whose price was adamantly high) and a plethora of EDH and Tiny Leaders generals and goodies.

And this Wednesday, I’ve placed a redemption order for a foil Dragons of Tarkir set to get my foil Dragonlords. After waiting for more than a month – a new set can only be redeemed a month after the set’s release on Magic Online – foil Dragonlords and a host of other DTK dragons would be flying to me in about ten days (on a FedEx plane of course).

Since I discovered the resoundingly large difference between digital and paper foil set prices, I’ve been using redemption to get my hands on eternal and EDH foils rather than hunting them down individually. It is a time-efficient method compared to procuring individual foils in trade or trying to snipe eBay auctions. But how much extra value do you gain from redeeming foil sets to get your expensive foils as opposed to trading for them or buying them straight from vendors? After all, when you redeem a foil set, you are paying for the other 200 or so cards in the set that is chaff (but shiny chaff).

FullSizeRender

In January, I advocated using redemption to get foil fetchlands on the cheap. Is that opportunity a one-off disparity between the intangible Magic Online foil market and the paper market? Or do we actually make a profit in foil redemption for the majority of sets?

Today’s article is going to crunch the numbers from the sets in the Khans of Tarkir block to answer those questions and give an idea of the value to be made, or lack of, from redeeming foil sets. This article will only cover foil redemption as the margin for redeeming non-foil sets are much smaller, especially after the handling price for redemption increased from $5 to $25 per set.

The Numbers

Price of Set in PaperTotal Buylist Price Price of Set on Magic OnlinePrice of Set on Magic Online Including Handling Fee
Dragons of Tarkir$762.62$445.84$332.00$357.00
Fate Reforged$577.58$224.35$210.00$235.00
Khans of Tarkir$766.44$362.13$461.00$486.00

The total price of the set in paper and total buylist price were calculated using MTGPrice’s browse set tool. The price of the set in paper is the total price of each foil in the set based on their fair trade price. The total buylist price is the total price of the best buylist price for each foil in the set.

The price of the set on Magic Online was calculated using Goatbot‘s prices where available, with any missing prices (Goatbots does not show the price of a card if the card is out of stock) filled in using MTGOWikiprice. If possible I prefer to assemble a complete set from a single bot or bot chain as the smallest denomination for Magic Online event tickets is 1 ticket ($1) and the remainder from any trades or purchases with bots that is smaller than 1 ticket will be kept on that bot or bot chain as bot credit. For example, if you buy a card priced at 22.42 tickets, you would be giving the bot 23 tickets and the bot would register the remaining difference of 0.58 tickets as bot credit, which would go towards future transactions with that bot or other bots in its chain. If you assemble your complete set using multiple bots, you could end up using more event tickets.

This price of the set on Magic Online column does not include the handling fee of $25 and shipping fee which is $2.99 if you are redeeming to an address within the United States and $29.99 if you are redeeming to an address outside the United States.

Is It Worth Redeeming for a Quick Flip?

Let’s assume we are redeeming sets off Magic Online and then buylisting every single card in the set, which is actually better off than selling the factory-sealed box on eBay. Recent completed sales for Fate Reforged and Khans of Tarkir foil sets sold for lower than the buylist total. I’ve compiled the vendor with the best buylist price for the expensive foils in the set and it appears that you would only need to buylist to two to three different vendors and at most four vendors to get the best buylist price for your foils. So at most I’d imagine the cost of packing and posting the foils to vendors to cost no more than $20.

Vendors

Redeemed cards come in a factory-sealed box and are usually in near-mint condition (or Marcel-mint), so grading should not be an issue. In theory at least. Of the three redemptions I’ve done, all the cards were in perfect condition, save for Ugin, whose left border was slightly worn, probably due to shipping. The rest of the cards in that box was surprisingly in pristine condition.

If you live in the United States:

Profit = Total buylist price – Price of set on Magic Online + Handling  + $2.99.

Dragons of Tarkir Profit: $85.85

Fate Reforged Profit: -$13.64

Khans of Tarkir Profit: -$126.86

If you live outside the United States:

Profit = Total buylist price – Price of set on Magic Online + Handling  + $29.99.

Dragons of Tarkir Profit: $58.85

Fate Reforged Profit: -$40.64

Khans of Tarkir Profit: -$153.86

Currently, it looks like the only foil set that will be profitable to redeem and flip is Dragons of Tarkir. Even so, most of the buylists are only buying a few copies of the higher end foils, so at most a redeem and flip could only be repeated a few times, unless you have an outlet to liquidate the cards at retail value, say if you own a shop.

What about keeping the foils in the set that are of interest to you and buylisting the rest to subsidize the cost of obtaining those cards that you keep? Let’s have a look at the individual sets to ascertain the value of doing so.

Khans of Tarkir Foil Redemption

Khans of Tarkir Foil RedemptionWhen my article about redeeming foils went up in January, a complete foil set of Khans of Tarkir could be assembled for $431. The price of putting together a foil Khans of Tarkir set has increased to $461 since then. The supply of Khans foils, especially the mythics dropped drastically after the switch to Dragons-Dragons-Fate draft on Magic Online. While researching this article, Goatbots ran out of the ten most expensive Khans mythic and I have to pull their prices from various other bots, though I rounded the figure up to get a closer approximation to that you have to pay shall you decide to assemble a full foil set of Khans right after reading this article. When I was assembling my foil Khans sets last December and this January, there were only a couple of mythics that cost more than 30 tickets. Today, there are nine mythics that cost more than 30 tickets, and two of them cost 40 and above.

Khans of Tarkir Foils

Besides the rise in cost to acquire foil Khans mythics on Magic Online, the buylist price for marquee cards that used to used to make up a good portion of the set’s total buylist price dropped significantly, notably the Planeswalkers. When my previous article advocating redeeming a foil set of Khans and selling the other money cards to subsidize the cost of the foil fetchlands went up in mid-January, Treasure Cruise was still legal in both Modern and Legacy, and besides contributing to the total buylist price its presence also propped up the buylist price for Monastery Swiftspear.

Assuming that you redeem a foil Khans set solely for the fetchlands and buylist the rest ($139.99), taking into account postage to the vendors ($20) you would be getting your foil fetches for $366.01. The total fair trade price for the fetches is only $317.15. It looks like the window to get foil fetches on the cheap via redemption has closed.

I am pretty new to redemption, having started only last December. This is the first time I am observing the price pattern of foil sets on Magic Online and one thing I’ve learned is that the best time to piece together your foil set online is when the set is both being drafted and paid out as prize. Although a set could be redeemed up to two years after the set rotates out of Standard, the window to get reasonably-priced foil sets is small, mainly due to the scarcity of foil mythics after the set stops being drafted and handed out as prize. This does not seem to apply to non-foil sets as non-foil Khans sets are still aplenty on Goatbots.

Fate Reforged Redemption

Fate Reforged Foil Redemption

While the price of a foil set of Fate Reforged on Magic Online has not changed much compared to its figures in mid-March when Fate Reforged first became redeemable (I recall paying just slightly more than 210 tickets for my foil set), the total buylist price for the foil set tanked. On 21 March, I posted in the ProTrader forums about getting a foil Ugin, the Spirit Dragon without having to pay his exorbitant foil price tag by redeeming foil Fate Reforged and selling off everything else. At that time, the total buylist price for a foil set of Fate Reforged was $301.17, and by redeeming and buylisting everything else except for Ugin, you could get your foil Ugin at a cost of $0.91, not including the postage cost for buylisting to vendors.

Unfortunately, the total buylist price for a foil set of Fate Reforged has dropped to a paltry $224.35 today. Nearly all foil Fate Reforged mythics and rares except for Ugin, the Spirit Dragon, Monastery Mentor and Tasigur, the Golden Fang tanked in April, probably due to the influx in supply from redemption. Those three cards retained their foil price on the back of eternal and casual demand. 
 Fate Reforged Foil Set

Is it still worth it redeeming a foil Fate Reforged set to get your hands on a foil Ugin whose is stubbornly retaining a price close to $100 three and a half months after Fate Reforged‘s release?

Redeeming a foil set of Fate Reforged will cost you $235, not including delivery. Buylisting the set without Ugin would rake you $158.11. Crossing off $20 for postage to vendors, you would be securing your foil Ugin at $96.89, which is the same as a foil Ugin’s fair trade price. If you live in the United States, add an extra $2.99 to the figure for redemption delivery. If you live outside the United States, pop on an extra $29.99 instead. You would be better off buying a foil Ugin regardless of where you reside.

However, if you are keeping the foil Ugin, Monastery Mentor and Tasigur, the figures look slightly better. The rest of the cards would buylist for $109.50 and taking into account the $20 for postage to vendors, you would be getting your foil Ugin, Mentor and Tasigur for $145.50, which is $33.32 cheaper than the total fair trade price for those three foils. Note that this figure is only worth it if you are living in the United States as the $29.99 redemption delivery would wipe out nearly all of the $33.32 in saved cost. To be fair, it’s quite a bit of effort too just to get those three foils at $33 cheaper than fair trade price (the extra delivery cost from buying those three cards from a vendor negates the extra $2.99 for redemption delivery within the United States).

To be honest, the trouble of going through redemption and buylisting just to save $33 on the trio of eternal playable Fate Reforged foils is probably not worth the effort for most people. I personally don’t recommend doing so. As for myself I kept all of my Fate Reforged foil set I redeemed the set to get my hands on foil EDH goodies, and if I were to sell or buylist off the remaining non-eternal, non-EDH playables, the sum I get is not worth the trouble. I prefer to keep them as my collection. After all, even unassuming uncommons like Temur Sabertooth could one day be broken in EDH.

Dragons of Tarkir Redemption

Dragons of Tarkir Foil Redemption

By the virtue of being a new set, the redemption math for Dragons is different from its predecessors. As shown in the earlier segment of this article, it is profitable to redeem and buylist all of the cards in the set, even after taking into consideration the $20 postage fee to vendors. Just to reiterate, I would not recommend doing so as the high value foil mythics are wanted by the vendors only in small quantities.

As Dragons of Tarkir a new set, the buylist price for foil Dragons of Tarkir mythics are still in the higher stages of its price cycle and foils of rares that recently spiked like Collected Company and Den Protector are still commanding a good price.

The profitable redemption process is a good opportunity to get foil EDH and casual golds on the cheap. While Dragons of Tarkir does not have that many eternal playables as Fate Reforged and Khans of Tarkir have to offer, Dragons is a set chock-full of EDH and casual goods. I would say Standard as well, but I tend to shy away from Standard foils.

Dragons of Tarkir Foil Set

If you are looking to redeem a foil set of Dragons just for the Dragonlords, you would be getting your foil Dragonlords for a total of $34.89 if you are living in the United States, and $61.89 if you are residing outside, both of which are significantly cheaper than the $171.42 total fair trade price for foils of all five Dragonlords.

Both figures are inclusive of the estimated $20 in postage cost to send the other buylist cards to vendors.

The figures are $107.38 for United States residents and $134.38 for non-United States residents if you keep both Planeswalkers as well, though I would advice against so. Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker and Sorin, Solemn Visitor are currently buylisting for under $10, and while I don’t think Narset Transcendent and Sarkhan Unbroken would be tanking to such lows due to Dragons destined to be opened way less than Khans, they certainly would not sustain their current buylist price of above $30. On the other hand, the Dragonlords are seeing Standard play and on top of their casual and EDH demand, I am confident their buylist price would not drop much.

It may be better to ditch the foil Planeswalkers and retain the foil uncommon eternal playables like Rending Volley, Anticipate and Silumgar’s Scorn together with the Dragonlords. EDH mythics like Clone Legion and the cycle of rare dragons may also be worth keeping.

Do note that if you plan on redeeming foil sets of Dragons, it may be prudent to do it soon, before buylist prices for foil Dragons starts to drop.

Redemption Window

A few pointers I’ve picked up from assembling my four redemptions on the optimal time to assemble your foil sets:

  • On Goatbots, it seems that foil sets of the latest set is cheapest a week or two after redemption becomes available and it seems to remain so for a couple of weeks as the new set is still being drafted. I acquired my Fate Reforged foil set for around 220 tickets but it is going for 200 tickets today. I’ve compiled the figures in the table above on Wednesday, and today (Friday) Goatbots is selling a foil Dragons set for just 319.99 tickets, compared to the 332 tickets listed in the table.
  • If you are looking to ship of some of the high value foils in the set to subsidize the foils you are interested in, keep in mind that the buylist price starts to tank a few weeks after redemption begins. The buylist price for foil Fate Reforged mythics started to tank from beginning to middle of April. Fate Reforged redemption begun in the middle of March.
  • Foil sets become increasingly expensive to assemble once the set stops being drafted on Magic Online (as in not the primary draft anymore. You can still draft Khans on Magic Online, but the majority will be drafting Dragons), due to the scarcity of foil mythics. I resented having to fog up 12 tickets for Ugin’s Nexus when I was assembling my foil Khans set. You’d be hard-pressed to find one for under 35 tickets today.

I hope that this article answers any questions you have regarding the value of redeeming foil sets on Magic Online. Feel free to share your thoughts or questions below or ping me on Twitter @theguoheng.

 

Finding Value

Game Day Promos, Part II

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By: Guo Heng

Last week, we went through the list of Game Day top eight promos from the beginning of the program up through Mirrodin Besieged. Today, we are going to look at the remaining Game Day top eight promos on the list.

For those who did not read last week’s article (which I highly recommend), the hype surrounding the top eight promo for Dragons of Tarkir Game Day events piqued my interest in reviewing the long-term value of Game Day top eight promos. After all, they are limited in supply, special, and some possess casual appeal. So I dug through the annals of Magic Game Day promos and checked the price of the foil full art promos that were awarded to Game Day top eight players.

New Phyrexia Game Day: Myr Superion

Myr Superion Full Art FoilThe metal Tarmogoyf‘s Game Day promo is cheap, with a TCGplayer-mid of $2.27. I wonder why nobody has broke Myr Superion in Modern. Imagine the card in a Grand Architect deck: turn-three Grand Architect, tap for a Myr Superion. The deck can even go infinite with the Grand Architect and Pili-Pala combo!

I am just kidding, by the way—that is a recipe for a junk deck (as opposed to Junk, as Abzan decks were called before there was Abzan).

Magic 2012 Game Day: Dungrove Elder

Dungrove Elder Game Day

If I recall correctly, Dungrove Elder was Corbin Hosler‘s pick of the week on an episode of Brainstorm Brewery a few weeks back. He touted it as a casual pick-up, and the price of Dungrove Elder concurred. It’s a card that sees no eternal play, yet its non-foils are $2.79.  Set foils are only $3.27 and the foil full-art has a TCGplayer-mid of $4.43. As Corbin pointed out, Dungrove Elder’s foil multiplier is rather low for a card with casual appeal. The full-art foil looks like it has room to grow.

Innistrad Game Day: Elite Inquisitor

Elite Inquisitor Game Day
More swag than substance.

Sometimes cards are bestowed a lofty name. Sometimes they live up to it. Sometimes they don’t. Elite Inquisitor is not elite at all in any format, unless it’s a custom format like humans versus werewolves. And FNMs could be whatever format we want it to be these days right?

Dark Ascension Game Day: Zombie Apocalypse

Brains...
Brains…

I was surprised that the foil full art Zombie Apocalypse is only worth a TCGplayer-mid of $3.06. It surely must be a staple in any zombie tribal EDH or casual deck? I had a look at my own copy, and it dawned on me that the last four words in its rules text made the card crap. It’s a shame. Volkan Baga‘s art was sweet.

Avacyn Restored Game Day: Killing Wave

Wizards' The Killing Joke
Wizards: The Killing Joke

Wizards of the Coast’s choices for Game Day top eight promos for Innistrad block is killing me. Another lamentable reward for making top eight at your local Game Day, Killing Wave is worth only a TCGplayer-mid of $3.77. A little higher than Elite Inquisitor, but nowhere close to some of the earlier promos that are actually worth something. Yet another sweet piece of art wasted.

Magic 2013: Magmaquake

Magmaquake Game Day

At this point, Wizards seemed to have decided that Game Day top eight promos deserve an exceptional piece of art, and I wholeheartedly commend Wizards for making that decision. My commendation does not extend to their card selection. If only artwork was a significant factor in card prices (compared to printing).

Return to Ravnica: Cryptborn Horror

Cryptborn Horror

Is it too mean to call it Crapborn Horror? Cryptborn Horror‘s bulk price has granted this the status of being one of the cheapest Game Day top eight promos ever.

Gatecrash: Firemane Avenger

Firemane Avenger Game Day

Finally, we get a card that has the potential to be worth something! Alas, though Firemane Avenger is an angel, her foil full-art promo only commands a TCGplayer-mid of $3.99. Perhaps her casual appeal is not as high as I expected it to be, but surely an angel who is a Lightning Helix on a stick and is in colors that generate a significant amount of tokens could command significant casual interest? Maybe I am thinking with my Spike cap on rather than my Johnny or Timmy cap.

Dragon’s Maze Game Day: Melek, Izzet Paragon

Melek, Izzet Paragon Game DayNow this is a Game Day top eight promo that I think is undervalued. The low price of the promo Melek, Izzet Paragon is every bit as baffling as his creature type. Melek is a very popular general, and I find it weird that the limited edition, foil full-art version of him commands just a TCGplayer-mid of $3.87. We are talking about a foil full-art general here. Unless there is something I am missing, like the discovery of a container full of Melek promos, I think that this card is a good pick-up.

Magic 2014 Game Day: Goblin Diplomats

Goblin Diplomats Game Day

Tom Cruise Oblivion Confused

It was as if Wizards was trolling Game Day players by choosing a card like Goblin Diplomats as the prize for the players who fought their way to the top eight of the Magic 2014 Game Day. The jeering goblin kind of rubbed that in. A foil full-art of an uncommon like, say, Young Pyromancer would have been a much better choice.

Theros Game Day: Nighthowler

Nighthowler Game Day

The Game Day Nighthowler has my vote for the most gorgeous Game Day promo. Too bad it’s not one of the expensive ones, with a TCGplayer-mid of $3.52.

In this case, I can understand WOTC’s logic in selecting Nighthowler as the top eight promo. Nighthowler saw a good amount of play  in Theros Block Constructed, and it’s a shame that the horsey horror did not manage to find a home in Standard. Nighthowler is quite a decent card.

Born of the Gods Game Day: Pain Seer

Pain Seer Game Day

The Pain Seer Game Day promo was the first one for which I went out of my way to obtain multiple copies. I played in multiple Game Days and traded for it, too. Pain Seer is no Dark Confidant, but it was a staple in Theros Block Constructed Mono-Black Aggro, which was a tier-1.5 deck, and I had high hopes for that deck to translate into Standard. Alas, the archetype did not end up performing, save for a brief appearance in the hands of Tomoharu Saito right before Dragons of Tarkir kicked in. Currently, Mono-Black Aggro occasionally graces the MTGO daily events as a super budget tier-two deck.

The Pain Seer Game Day promo has a TCGplayer-mid of $3.49. I am tempted to ascribe long-term value to Pain Seer’s promo as a pauper’s Dark Confidant (sometimes the cost of greatness is just too much to bear solely for EDH or Tiny Leaders), but having played with Pain Seer, I think he is a very different creature from The Great One.

Journey into Nyx Game Day: Dictate of Kruphix

Dictate of Kruphix Game Day

While not as popular as Dictate of Erebos, Dictate of Kruphix does see play in EDH as a Howling Mine that bestows the extra card on its controller first. The Game Day promo Dictate of Kruphix has a TCGplayer-mid of $3.01. I would not buy it, but I would not mind trading for a couple of copies at this price. Dictate of Kruphix has casual appeal and the promo version could see slow growth over the years.

Magic 2015 Game Day: Chief Engineer

Chief Engineer Game Day

I’m still waiting for Chief Engineer to make artifacts broken in Modern. In the meantime, I’ll just cast my turn-three Wurmcoil Engine off the Urzatron lands, as there’s less risk of getting my board scoured in the process. Chief Engineer’s Game Day promo is hovering at a TCGplayer-mid of $3.04, as it should be.

Khans of Tarkir Game Day: Utter End

Utter End Game Day Promo

Finally, we reach a Game Day promo that is worth more than $5, in this article at least (in part one, I went through quite a few promos that have a TCGplayer-mid higher than $10). Utter End sees play in Standard Abzan builds as a catch-all answer, which contributes to the promo’s price of $6.18 TCGplayer-mid.

Utter End also oozes casual appeal as a modern-day Vindicate (lands are no-go in this era of Magic design—apparently it feels bad to have your lands blown up). Utter End has the potential for long-term growth, especially the foil full-art version with limited supply.

I would not get in at $6, but would instead wait for its price to drop when Khans of Tarkir is about to rotate, at which point I could see getting multiple playsets. Have you seen the price of foil Vindicates? While Utter End could easily be reprinted, the Game Day foil full-art version is probably I’ll we’ll see of this version.

Fate Reforged Game Day: Supplant Form

Supplant Form Game Day

Supplant Form was not an exciting Game Day top eight promo, but I doubt many were gunning for the Supplant Form promo at the Fate Reforged Game Day. Supplant Form is a card that was geared towards the casual crowd and at a TCGplayer-mid of only $2.36, it may be worth trading for a few copies as long-term holds. Supplant Form is not a Mind Control effect, but it’s pretty close, and it’s instant speed.

Dragons of Tarkir Game Day: Thunderbreak Regent

Finally, we get to the Game Day promo that puts other Game Day promos to a shame. With a TCGplayer-mid of $21.98, the Game Day promo Thunderbreak Regent is the most expensive one to date. The red dragon regent is a heady combination of being both a dragon and a Standard staple.

It remains to be seen if Thunderbreak Regent  will make the cut in Modern. Nevertheless, I do not see the price of the Regent’s Game Day promo going down anytime soon. It’s too bad we could not redeem this promo off of Magic Online. I guess I will have to wait until Dragons of Tarkir rotates to pick up the remaining three copies required to complete my playset.

A Wrap

This concludes the Game Day Promos series. I hope you have found something useful from these articles, or at least found them interesting (or if you’re really lucky, you discovered that one of your old Game Day promos is worth more than you thought).

Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments section below, or catch me on Twitter at @theguoheng.