By: Cliff Daigle

Today marks the 52nd article I’ve had published here. That’s a year’s worth of content, without skipping a beat!

I thought about reviewing all of them, as Mark Rosewater does yearly, but when I started to, it got a little daunting for a casual reader. So instead, I’d like to give you five specific recommendations from this past year.

#1 and #2: Trade it All and Don’t Buy Packs

http://blog.mtgprice.com/2013/07/12/prerelease–keep–or–trade/

http://blog.mtgprice.com/2013/07/19/the–case–for–singles–in–m14/

These two articles are my first, and they hold up well, except for making me feel very sad about the trade I made and the beginning of Gatecrash, where I sent away a Polluted Delta for a sack of magic beans.

Still, the advice is solid: Trade everything as soon as you open it, and don’t buy packs when you want certain singles. Following those two pieces of advice will be a lot of the added value your collection gains over time.

#18 – The Value of Being Social

http://blog.mtgprice.com/2013/11/08/the–value–of–being–social/

While the focus here at MTGPrice is the finances, you can look at the social aspect in order to gain value and information. In this case, it’s free stuff! A stack of foil lands, altered cards, and a unique factor of having the EDH Rules Committee sign it all. It’s no wonder that this didn’t get to me until nine months after the contest ended.

#30 – Lessons from Owen

http://blog.mtgprice.com/2014/01/24/five–things–owen–taught–me–in–one–match/

This particular match had me laughing for days. A friend of mine, hearing the story after the GP, said “This is worse than the dream where you go to school with no pants, it’s like you had less down there than a Ken doll.”

I try hard to make mistakes into lessons. We all screw up. When we do, we should try and see what happened, what went wrong, so we don’t do that twice.

I’ve been wishing people “Good Luck” ever since and meaning it.

#32 – Small Set Economics 6:2:1

http://blog.mtgprice.com/2014/02/07/small–set–economics/

There is a good chance that this article is my best of the past year. We all know that the later sets are smaller, but doing the math made that sort of scary. I feel very good about the predictions for the Temples, especially the two of Journey Into Nyx.

While I mentioned it, it seems that Conspiracy is not affecting the drafts too much, the effect might be close to that of Modern Masters last year. Not a lot of stores were able to do more than one or two MM drafts, and while I found Conspiracy to be a blast in the drafting process, a lot of people are turned off from the one-pod, one-round aspect.

If your store is running Conspiracy events regularly, leave a comment or shoot me a tweet at @WordOfCommander and let me know. We’re trying to gain some idea of how much is being opened.

#48 – The Foil Gap

http://blog.mtgprice.com/2014/05/30/the–foil–gap/

I’ve looked high and low for a consistent way to tell when something has casual appeal. I know what I like, what I’d want to play with, but I’m not perfect.

This method is good for showing appeal to groups that want something a little more special. Mostly, that’s casual players, but anyone who’s pimping out a deck will want a foil or a foreign foil. Note Abrupt Decay, as that’s going to get a reprint in the next year in a special product, but new foils won’t come along quite that fast.

Next week, I’ll be going over some of my predictions, to see where I’ve done well and where I’ve stumbled, and why. Informative, and humbling!

By: Cliff Daigle

A while back, I shared with you some trades from my Deckbox history. Today, I want to revisit some more trades I’ve made.

My purpose here is to tell you what you can get if you get out at the height of value and pick up things that are currently undervalued. That is how I keep increasing the value of my collection, even while taking value out for EDH decks and other life expenses.

Again, at the time, these trades were about even, based on TCG’s mid price.

October 1, 2013

My: 4x Jace, Architect of Thought
Their: 3x Cavern of Souls, 4x Abrupt Decay, Deathrite Shaman

Remember when Jace hit $30? He was getting buylisted for $20 at his peak, but that peak was very, very short. You could have gotten him for about $8 in trade before summer, and not long after Theros came out, Jace spiked HARD.

If you were following certain people on Twitter (Travis Allen, et al.) then you could have seen people tweeting about the stacks of Jaces they had picked up for just this occasion. I could have sold my playset for $80, but instead I swung for the fences and went with this trade…and it’s hit. Cavern is a good bet to be reprinted, so I’m game to trade it away now that it’s nearly $20. Abrupt Decay has gone up a few bucks, Deathrite went down a couple, but those Jaces? Mega-ouch.

Amusingly, the weekend I did this trade, it was accepted on a Friday, and Jace was valued around $21. By that Monday he was $30 and I was annoyed that I hadn’t gotten more in trade.

This spike and the subsequent fall of Jace, Architect of Thought is why I’m so eager to trade for underpriced Planeswalkers now.

Current valuations: $22 vs. $114

November 21, 2013

My: Blood Crypt, Overgrown Tomb, 2x Temple Garden, 3x Stomping Ground
Their: 2x HP Plateau

Neither of these Plateaus turned out to be fakes, and considering their condition, that’s no surprise. It would have taken a lot of work to get them into such condition. They don’t look too bad in sleeves, and one went into an EDH deck, the other got traded at FNM for a fetchland.

With this trade, I want to reiterate something I and others have said: If you get a chance to trade in-print Standard for Reserved List cards, even in bad condition, even giving up 10%-20% in value, take it. It’s rare to find someone who’s willing to trade old for new, and when it’s ‘never get printed again’ old, grab it.

Current valuations: $62 vs. $80 ($40 for HP Plateau)

December 13,  2013

My: Hallowed Fountain, Stomping Ground
Their: Foil Prophet of Kruphix, Foil Temple of Deceit

During Return to Ravnica block I aggressively traded for shocklands. Their value wasn’t going to go down, and they are used everywhere, making them excellent trade fodder. I’m already up a little on this trade, but the foil Prophet is going to start climbing soon, as the shiny version of one of the best casual cards ever.

Current valuation: $17 vs. $21

January 13, 2014

My: Shardless Agent and Xira Arien (SP)
Their: 8x Prophet of Kruphix, 3x Rise of the Dark Realms (1 Japanese), 4x Thespian’s Stage (1 Japanese)

I know I’ve said it in multiple columns and on Twitter: Prophet is casual gold. In the past few months, it’s gone from under $2 to about $3, and that’s while it’s being opened. It’s not hard to see this as a $5 or more card by Christmas, especially if the rumors are true and Tarkir block is wedge-based. (Blue-Green-Red would be a wedge, such as Animar, Soul of Elements or Riku of Two Reflections.)

The only thing standing in the way of this being $10 in 18 months is the possibility of getting banned in Commander. I don’t see that happening, based on comparisons to Seedborn Muse, Winding Canyons, etc. It is possible, though. I’ve got 50 copies, and I expect to move around half when they hit $5.

Rise of the Dark Realms is something else you should be getting out of peoples’ trade binders. Especially as it makes a sweet combo with the recently-spoiled In Garruk’s Wake. Get to nine mana, wipe the board, and then get it all back the next turn.

Current valuations: $19 vs. $39

April 24, 2014

My: Armada Wurm, 3x Drowned Catacomb, Exquisite Blood, Glacial Fortress, Hinterland Harbor, Loxodon Warhammer (10E), 3x Mutilate (M13), Price of Progress (EXO), Thassa, God of the Sea
Their: 5x Aurelia, the Warleader, 2x Nighthowler (Game Day Promo), Prophet of Kruphix, Young Pyromancer (foil)

I’ve also spoken of my belief that Aurelia is a long-term growth prospect. This is one of the trades I’ve made to have a spare dozen of the angel. I hated trading away Thassa, because that’s only going to go up, but I have still increased my value. I’m pretty sure that Young Pyromancer is going to get reprinted, but it’s unlikely that the supplemental set it’s in will include foils. I’m going to hold this one until it’s at least $20.

Current valuations: $40 vs. $52

By: Cliff Daigle

Magic has hit the sweet spot in terms of how often its flagship, expert-level, story-filled expansions come out. We get three sets a year of varying size and draft format.

We know that the rotation out of Standard in September will offer us some tempting targets in trade, but here at the end of June, we face a different schedule: the end of a block being opened in Sealed and Draft. Theros block is pretty much gone, with Magic 2015 a month away and Conspiracy being an absolute blast to draft. 

I refer you to the 6:2:1 model I posted about a few weeks ago. Even that small amount is about to be done, and that means supply is at its highest. Granted, there will be some players who crack boxes looking for singles, or retail stores that do the same, and there’s still redemptions online (until MTGO shuts down, I suppose) so the supply may creep upward a little, but not significantly.

The more money cards there are in a set, the more likely it is to be opened for the value of the singles, though this late in a set’s life, that’s a terrible and unprofitable plan under almost any circumstance. Better to spend a known amount of money and get exactly what you want, rather than open 36 packs and not even get a set of a certain uncommon.

So with this knowledge in mind, let’s look at what we should be trading for over the next few weeks. Theros block cards that have nowhere to go but up.

The Temples – Any temple under $5 is worth trading for. I will not be surprised if the UW Temple ends up in some Modern control lists, because free card selection is that good. Whatever the next block brings, there will be multicolor decks and the free scry has been shown to be worth it in Standard. I have trouble thinking that any temple will be under $10 around thanksgiving. Maybe the least popular of them all? Five dollars in trade right now will even be worth it in a year, because these are very good in the casual format of your choice

Thassa, God of the Sea – All of the Gods have reached a floor as the supply gets to its greatest point. Now, as cards are put into casual decks (and not traded away) that supply will get small and the price will start to go up. Thassa is the most likely to hit, because it’s the easiest to cast, has a free effect that’s very useful, and has already seen Standard and Modern play. I really like picking up any of the multicolor Gods that are under $5, as small set mythics they are going to go up in a spike or in gradual terms.

Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver – If Jace, Architect of Thought taught us anything, it is to pick up planeswalkers when they are cheap. Ashiok gives an inevitable way to end a game in any format, and remember, it wasn’t that long ago that Nephalia Drownyard was used as a finisher for control decks. I like picking this up around $8.

Elspeth, Sun’s Champion – If you even think you might be playing with her in the next year, pick these up now. At $20-$25 there is no lower price for her. She’s just too good, offering protection from creatures big and small. It’s not hard to imagine her hitting $30 or more in nine months, like Domri Rade did.

Xenagos, the Reveler – Notice a trend here? This is a card I’d trade for based on the casual appeal too, because that +1 ability is a multicolor Gaea’s Cradle. A free stream of hasty attackers is usually a good thing, and it won’t take much to make it break $15 before too long.

Anger of the Gods – $2 for a cheap and thoroughly effective sweeper? Yes please. I will not be surprised if this starts seeing more Modern play, due to the need to exile things like Kitchen Finks.

Hero’s Downfall – $7 for what is basically Murder, with some added and very useful flexibility. It seems high, I know, but unless they print this effect even cheaper, this is as good as it gets. Dreadbore doesn’t see as much play, and I expect Downfall to break $10 during Tarkir block.

Mistcutter Hydra – Regular or foil!! Doesn’t matter at all. This is the sideboard tech of choice in many Standard and Legacy lists. Can’t be countered, hasty, protection from blue. Checks every box for being a control player’s nightmare, as they always have to have a plan in place if/when this gets played. I would trade for these now, and trade away the nonfoils in a year, and keep the foils for longer. Nowhere to go but up!

Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx – I’ve preached this before and now this is at $5. It’s a shame that I don’t like to buy cards, because this is a steal now. Pick up as many of these as you can and just be patient. Even if they don’t go up during Tarkir block, the casual power of this card                                                              will allow it to increase over time.

Thoughtseize – Best disruption spell ever, now at its lowest price. If you can find them for trade, snap them up. Rarity is irrelevant here, we’ve seen how big the Modern demand is and this card was the most-needed reprint. Remember, it was $80 for a moment before being spoiled.

Courser of Kruphix – Yes, it’s $15 now for a rare. It has a backbreaking effect against aggressive or midrange or control decks. It gives card advantage, lifegain, and a cheap-yet-hard-to-kill body. This is going to be a big deal for the remainder of its life in Standard. $20 or $25 is not out of the question.

Mana Confluence – It’s down to nearly $10 and that is too low. The supply is too low, just for the casual demand. I would pick up as many of these as I could, $15-$20 sounds right to me, though that could go higher if the Modern combo decks start using this.

Master of the Feast – Three extra draws to get the right spell. They are dead otherwise, and this is a low-risk pickup right now. I wouldn’t mind having a couple of extra playsets, in case something combos well with it in Tarkir.

By: Cliff Daigle

We have the full spoiler, and it’s a doozy!

Sure, there are some splashy mythics and some high-dollar cards, as well as reports that Conspiracy will be a more limited set than we believe. Wizards is notoriously tight-lipped when it comes to numbers, but it seems likely that we’ll get a big burst at first, followed by a second wave not long after. They know Conspiracy is competing with Journey into Nyx, I don’t believe they want it competing with Magic 2015 in mid-July.

Conspiracy appears to be a small event, this might well be the trial balloon. Is there a market for a product like this? It might be the closest Wizards gets to an official paper Cube product. Just like with Modern Masters, there’s value when things are unique. If you can get a box anywhere near MSRP, grab it and put it away. We’ve seen what sealed product can do over time and while it takes time to appreciate, it’s a very safe investment.

This weekend, there are release events for the set, often as draft-till-you-drop-or-we-run-out sort of things. I always love serial drafting, and in a set that’s designed to tweak the draft experience, this is going to be a lot of fun. And afterwards, the second level of fun with the leftover cards: trading.

So what should you be trading for at events this weekend?

Conspiracy-Watermarked Foils

This covers everything from the Cogwork Spy to the Deal Broker, as well as the Conspiracies themselves. Any of these cards I’m going to be chasing HARD in foil. I strongly believe this is a long-term growth set of cards, because the effect is so unique and it’s going to be quite a while before they get printed again, especially in foil.

Marchesa, the Black Rose deserves special mention here. Multiplayer games are won by those whose resources are resilient, and Marchesa gives a very strong layer of resistance to mass removal. I think she’s going to see a lot of EDH and casual multiplayer play, and I would go after foils of her.

I think that there is a lot of growth potential in the rare Conspiracies, too. Worldknit says “Draft me, and then take the best card in each pack, regardless of color!” Getting a second opening hand with Backup Plan is truly amazing. Many Cubers are going to want most, if not all, of the Conspiracies. Some of the hidden agenda cards are going to be less sought-after, but Cubers are often completionists. Go ahead and have a full set ready for them to get from you.

Also for Cubers are the cards like Cogwork Librarian that alter how drafts proceed. I will be picking these up in foil and non-foil, the regular version will not be going for much right now but there is nowhere to go but up. My example is Shadowborn Apostle. Sure, it’s a common, but when a large supply is needed from a short-run set, dollar commons are not unheard of. I’ll be chasing just about all of these types of cards in either version, from the commons to the rares. I dearly love Deal Broker, and I wish I could play seventeen of them.

First- or Second-Run Foils

 

Exploration and Wood Sage get their first foil treatments, and Exploration especially as part of a Legacy deck will be a sought-after foil. I wouldn’t go too crazy, but keep in mind that Conspiracy is not going to be opened very often, so the supply of foil rares is going to be low. Those who have high-end Legacy decks will be unfazed, so I’d max out around $60-$80 in value.

This set offers the sweet Terese Nielsen art of Swords to Plowshares in foil, and this is a card I’d love to have in a shiny form. You’re allowed to ask for at least $60 in trade and offer even more. The new art on Rout is notable, but I wouldn’t expect many people to upgrade an already-foil to this version. Don’t overdo it. Stifle is a card that needed a reprint for Legacy and here it is, in foil or non. It’s a good pickup as the price falls, and then will regain value in the coming months.

Foil Hydra Omnivore is going to be an interesting price to follow. There will be a small supply of this in foil, and it’s currently a $5-$10 card because we love our multi-headed beasties. I’d trade for the new ones at $5 as a long term prospect. Altar of Dementia is not going to keep its price, but the foil will be something else. It’s never been foil before and it’s a great finisher in token decks. Trade for all the Reflecting Pool you can, in foil or not. It’s just too good.

Happy Drafting!