Category Archives: Casual Fridays

The Worth of a Symbol

With Double Masters lighting up our world and about three weeks to go until Zendikar Rising previews, I want to take a breath and think about Mystery Booster cards. Not just the Convention playtest cards, since people have gone crazy on the high end of those, but the foils that barely had a chance to shine. Some of these are very nicely priced compared to their original, and price gaps are worth examining.

Scourge of the Throne ($9 for MB foil vs. $75 for Conspiracy foil) – I originally stumbled across this price gap when I was looking for a foil version of this card for my Ur-Dragon deck, and my jaw dropped. Sure, original Conspiracy was forever ago and this is a foil mythic from a tiny set, but my goodness. I respect anyone who wants to get the original, but I’m pretty content to pick up the new foil, and a few extras. There’s 100+ NM foils for the MB version, but less than ten for the foils from Conspiracy. I don’t think anyone will lower their CNS prices, for the record. Mythic dragons will always have my attention, especially in foil when there’s no EA to chase. One of the best pickups right now.

Minamo, School at Water’s Edge ($8 MBF vs. $70 for Champions of Kamigawa foil) – Seven thousand Commander decks, and that likely should be higher. It’s an almost-no-cost upgrade over an island to give your Commander vigilance when you want it, and is capable of a whole lot more. It’s not just a legendary permanent you control, you can give the gift of an untap when needed too. This is far too large a price gap to hold forever, and represent a wonderful long-term spec.

Karrthus, Tyrant of Jund ($13 for Double Masters foil vs. $45 for Alara Reborn foil) – It’s no $60 gap but it’s a big gap for a sweet sweet Dragon. Kaarthus’s price has come down a lot since the beginning of the year, but it’s still a notable gap. It’s nice to have the haste enabler, but stealing the Dragons at the table can be amazing game in Commander. For comparison’s sake, Maelstrom Nexus has a similar gap in foil, from $5 to $27.

Boreal Druid ($2 MBF vs. $22 Coldsnap foil) – Snow mana is a big deal, especially now that we have some awesome accessories for snow shenanigans in Commander. Having early snow mana means a lot, in the face of the Astrolabe ban it’s a winner in most decks. There’s a limited number of one-mana accelerators, and this shows up in a lot of cubes just for this reason. Herald of Leshrac, a rare from the same set, has a $1/$13 split, if you need a reference for how commonly Boreal Druid is used.

Intruder Alarm ($6 MBF vs. $60 8th edition foil) – I think the original Stronghold art is superior, but your choice is a binary one if you’re looking for a foil. The question is, do you want to combo off with a $50 price gap? This is especially appealing due to the combo implications. This tends to spike when sweet legends come out, or a new Commander combo is unlocked. Now you can get the cheapest version possible in the face of the next spike.

Reki, the History of Kamigawa ($3 MBF vs. $34 Saviors of Kamigawa) – Reki isn’t used extensively in Commander, but there are Legendary-themed decks that love this effect. I especially love cast triggers, and this is cheap enough to cast and then follow-up with a legend.

Gilder Bairn ($1 MBF vs. $20 for Shadowmoor) – This is only in about 1000 Commander decks online, but the effect is one of the only ways to double up on any permanent. A lot of effects since then won’t touch planeswalkers (Vorel of the Hull Clade) and that’s why this uncommon is $20. Remember that the Mystery Booster collation comes from whole sheets of 121 cards, so the Bairn is as likely to be in a pack as Scourge of the Throne. The printed rarity doesn’t matter: you’re getting one in every 121 packs (slightly over 5 boxes). Yes, there’s 100 copies on TCG right now, but we’re not opening any more Mystery Retail. Who wants to draft that when there’s Double Masters, or Zendikar 3, or some other set yet to be released?

Teferi’s Puzzle Box ($7 MBF vs. $200 7th foil vs. $34 8th foil vs. $63 9th foil) – Speaking of combo enablers, there’s been a lot of stuff that works really well with the Box, things like Nekusar, the Mindrazer. Every time, these get a little more pricey. The original in Visions can’t have a foil, and now you can buy in at the cheapest version. It’s also the most common one, but with only 137 vendors and none with a huge amount, there’s a lot of room to grow. It’s the same art as the 8th Edition foil, so that’s your price comparison.

Braid of Fire ($8 MBF vs. $40 Coldsnap foil) – Finally, let’s look at a card that spiked towards the end of last year and then came back down. Remember, when this came out, mana burn was a thing and you could suffer for having this. Now there’s no drawback, you just need someplace to put the mana. I have confidence in the abilities of Commander players to pull this off, especially with less vendors for this card than the others on this list when looking at TCG. The regular nonfoil is $11, and that’s all due to being in a weird third set that came out during a totally different block.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Double the Buying

No, no, I mean Box Toppers.

We’ve had a LOT of price movement on these, and it’s made a lot of my predictions look pretty terrible. I’m not one to hide when I’m wrong, but this seems to be an instance of there being a lot more product and a lot of people who are trying to take profits quickly.

This is good for anyone who wants to get these for themselves, and also good for those who want long term value. Let’s get into it.

The first thing that you might notice is that the foil BTs and the nonfoil BTs often have a real discrepancy in price, but with the nonfoil being more expensive. This is because every VIP pack gives you two foil box toppers (one definitely rare, the second has a 66% chance of being mythic) and every box of Double Masters comes with two nonfoil toppers at what I think is the same ratio. 

A lot of the rare BTs have a higher price for nonfoils than foils, because there’s less Double Masters boxes being opened right now than VIP packs. Vendors are chasing the profit from VIP packs, opening them in quantity and trying to extract maximum value. 

If you’ve ordered VIP packs ahead of time (as I have) then you might be wondering what to do. I am not going to be cracking them and trying to cash in right away. Too many vendors are too ahead of us, and if you don’t hit the big ones, then you’re going to miss out on some value. If you open a foil Force of Will, then you’re going to get paid anyway, but there’s going to be a lot of people trying to cash in ASAP.

I don’t think you should be one of those people. I’m holding my packs, and I anticipate holding them for a while. I am doubtful that there will be much of a second wave of VIP, because that would step on Zendikar Rising sales (presumably of Collector Boosters, but who knows) but I do anticipate an announcement of more VIP, even if it’s not accompanied by a lot of product.

I don’t think you should be selling this weekend–I think you should be buying instead. Some of these box toppers, in foil and nonfoil, are are ridiculous prices, and there’s some regular versions to consider too. Prices have been hit hard, and in the rush to make what profit one can, there’s a lot of things on the board that represent a chance to increase in value.

First, the Box Toppers I really like, and keep in mind that prices may drop by a few percent this weekend as people rush to find the floor. It may go even lower next weekend, as regular folks get their preorders in hand and try to cash out. I’m comfortable with the prices I’m listing.

Fatal Push ($20 nonfoil/$15 foil) – The inverted prices are notable, and I wish I could say that you ought to lock in on one or the other. This is a pick that says ‘I have confidence that paper events will return, and Modern will be big again!’ and if you aren’t confident in that statement then skip to the next one. I do feel good about Modern events eventually returning, and Push is one of the premier spells in that format. 

Academy Ruins ($24/$22) – A price difference that is barely there, but is present nonetheless. This is one of one of the most puzzling prices out there, and one that deserves attention. The original in Time Spiral is about this price, as is the Modern Masters 2013 reprint. There’s no reason that this gorgeous borderless version, done by a true master in John Avon, should have a price near to the other ones. This is the immediate upgrade for your Cube, and in 13,000 Commander decks. Breya is about to be built a whole bunch, too. Grab your personal copies now, and your spec copies as well.

Phyrexian Metamorph ($12 for either) – It’s in 15,000 decks, and has a promo from when it came out. It’s also one of the best cards you can ask for in blue decks, copying mana rocks, busted enters-play abilities, or game-ending legends. I’m inclined to pick up foils, because Commander players love foils, but being at the same price means that there’s that many less of the nonfoils. 

Wurmcoil Engine ($27 for either) – One of the best creatures ever, this price seems out of line with the basic versions that are available. I’ll grant you that the art is not my favorite, but there’s no reason for this to be $5-$7 more than the Commander Anthology version. The Invention is at about $100, and this Box Topper won’t be threatening that price. This is the mythic that I think has the most room to grow, because there’s significantly less of each Box Topper mythic than each rare. 

Now for a couple of non-Box-Toppers worth paying attention to.

Doubling Season ($40 for the regular nonfoil, $65 for Box Topper foil and nonfoil) – Let’s go to the graph, shall we?

Note the drop when this was a mythic in Battlebond, and the recovery not long after. Reprint season is when you want to get your copies cheap, and I don’t think $40 is the floor here. Any version is going to be a winner, but I’m really hoping that this one can drop to $30 or less once people get their boxes and try to cash in. Doubling Season always recovers. It’s too good, too much a staple.

Skithiryx, the Blight Dragon ($18 nonfoil/$35 foil) – Considering that the original from New Phyrexia has never been reprinted, the price on the OG is a respectable $40. Being a mythic will slow the fall, but there hasn’t been an injection of new copies for a long, long time. There is farther to go before it hits the floor, and I’m hoping that it’s below $10, so I can lock in some long-term gains.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Delicious Toppings, Part 2

Here we go with part 2 of all the Box Toppers, and we know them all now! Very spicy list indeed.

Avacyn, Angel of Hope – $240 – This feels pretty high, even though this art is awesome plus some. Sorin killed Avacyn, so now she has this ghostly look to her. Very cool. She is in 13k decks online, but I’d expect this to settle down a bit, definitely under $200, possibly in the $150 range.

Stoneforge Mystic – $70 – This feels low, but this also has a lot of factors. Not every white deck wants the equipment theme, but Stoneforge and her best buddy Batterskull are Cube staples and Legacy stalwarts. I hope that this drops lower so that I can buy several, but my inclination is that this is about the right price.

Brainstorm – $50 – This definitely feels too low for a card that’s in 30% of all blue decks online, and is frequently a four-of in Legacy. If your Cube skips on fetches, then it skips this too, though. The art is up there on the ‘awesomely-weird-o-meter’ and while it’s a rare, not a mythic, I think this will inch upwards a little as people have to buy several.

Force of Will – $350 – Here we are, the big winner for prices. It’s a big price, too, and up there with the judge foil in terms of price. It’s not as common in Commander, only ten percent of blue decks registered one, but while I expect the price will fall slightly in the rush of stuff getting opened, I think it’ll settle right there at $300ish.

Fatal Push – $33 – This is going to nearly be the least expensive of the Toppers when all is said and done. It’s a wonderful removal spell in Modern, and sees some Legacy play. It is decent in Cube, though quickly outclassed, and sees very little Commander play. I think it’ll fall a buck or two farther, but $30 will be the floor here.

Thoughtseize – $110 – If you recall, there was a point in 2013 when this was nearly $100.

Since then, we had reprints in Theros and Iconic Masters, which have kept this price reasonable. This is very good, as it’s one of the backbone spells of Modern, and sees conversely less play in Commander. This price is about even with the Amonket Invocation, and that feels off. This will go upwards in price a little, but not break $130.

Toxic Deluge – (no price yet, previewed too recently) – With Eternal Masters foils at about $80-$90, and this being one of the ‘yes, absolutely, everything is dead’ spells in Commander, in 28k decks, I like this to be about $100 and stay there. 

Blood Moon – $80 – Let’s have another graph, because Blood Moon is another example of a card that’s needed repeated reprints to stay accessible:

Yes, for the longest time, Blood Moon was a $50 Chronicles card, which is an amazing sentence if you lived through the amazingly large quantity printed at the time. It’s an iconic sideboard card, and something that decks have tried to cheat into play early with Simian Spirit Guide and other fun methods. The Invocation is $90, and while I like this art a lot more, there’s a greater quantity of this out there. It should stabilize in the $80-$100 range, but that might spike hard when we get back to Modern tournaments in person and the metagame calls for them.

Goblin Guide – $40 – If you’re gonna play it, you’ll play the set, but the metagame for burn has shifted to the one-mana Prowess creatures who can hit even harder than this. The right price.

Meddling Mage – $30 – This is a popular card in Humans decks where it’s legal, but still very niche and probably the cheapest foil Box Topper. I won’t be shocked to see this at $25. Remember that there’s $20 Expeditions out there.

Batterskull – $70 – This is mythic, so that helps. No one plays more than two copies of this, and a singleton is common enough. It’s in a tiny percentage of Commander decks, too, so I feel like this has a little farther to fall once we get past the initial rush.

Chrome Mox – $110 – The big problem here is the Invention version, which looks stunning. The new one evokes a digital feeling in me, but the art, while sweet, is the hangup. The EMA foil is $80, the Invention $160, and this is in the right range, smack between them.

Expedition Map – $25 – This has already fallen from the $40 it was at early on, and I think that’s an error. I find myself hoping that it falls farther, so that I can buy a lot of them. $20 for gorgeous art on a card that is a four-of in Tron builds and is in an additional 25k EDH decks online? Sign me up. It also helps that this is the only alternate frame available.

Lightning Greaves – $60 – I LOVE this art. I will respect if you think the Invention is more awesome, and that version is definitely rarer, but Greaves is so good that it’s only been in a booster twice: Mirrodin and Mystery Booster. It is a broken card, being in 30% of ALL DECKS on EDHREC, just about 120,000. There is a real demand for this card, and I expect it’ll go up by at least $20, and be close in price to the Invention.

Mana Crypt – $180 – So within a fairly short time, we got the EMA version, the Mystery Booster, and now this. We’d already had a judge foil and an Invention, and this is tempting. It’s a mythic, and it’s not like the market is saturated with the assorted promo versions. Players pick these up and they stay safely in decks. I expect this to dip at first, and then rise a little, into the $230-$250 range.

Mox Opal – $75 – This feels too low for this version. Is it that much worse than the Invention at $175 or so? Granted, the Invention is pure hotness and prettier than most anything, but this is also super sweet. It’s in 12k Commander decks online, but is banned in Modern. I feel like this will come up a little in price, but there might be a chance to buy in at $60 or even $50 when the first waves of VIP hit and that’s pure value.

Sword of Body and Mind – $50 – The Invention is $60, and this will be a lot more common than that. It’ll come down to $40, and maybe lower. It’s just not that good, sad to say.

Sword of Feast and Famine – $110 – This sees a lot more Commander play, given the untap trigger, and the Invention being about $70 more bears that out. I would expect this to dip a little but gain it back, being a mythic and in sufficient Cubes/Commander decks.

Sword of Fire and Ice – $110 – Honestly, this comes down to art preference. The card is very good in any deck that attacks, giving you a free Shock and a free card, but you get to pick what art you want. The Invention is about $130, the judge foil with the old border foiling about $15 more, but this new Box Topper art is pretty amazing too. About $100 sounds right here.

Sword of Light and Shadow – $130 – This is too high, but it was very recently previewed. The Invention is about $100, the judge foil $50. This should settle about $70.

Sword of War and Peace – $60 – Another that’s too high, even with having badass art. Inventions are $70, and I would expect to see this dip down to $50 or so.

Wurmcoil Engine – $38 – It’s dropped a few bucks since being previewed early, and I can see why some are turned off by the ‘Predator-Face’ art. Regular versions are about $20, and foil Box Toppers feel like they should be a bit higher. It’s a mythic, so there won’t be too many copies out there.

Academy Ruins – $45 – It’s in 12,000 Commander decks online and is a Cube staple with Mindslaver, and this is the first alternate art/frame treatment. This feels low, to be honest. I’d expect to see this at more like $60 before too long. 

Urza’s Mine/Power Plant/Tower – $35 each – These aren’t big in Commander or Cube, but Tron has been a tier deck in Modern for some time, and these are needed in playsets. Originals from Antiquities go for $7 or less, but we can’t rule out the collectors who are going to enjoy the panorama for all three and the Karn Liberated. These might fall a little farther but $30 should be the floor. The foils from 7th and 8th edition go for a whole lot, but that’s pure scarcity.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Delicious Toppings, Part 1

We know 26 of the 40 Box Toppers, and we know a lot of the rares. It’s pretty likely that three of the remaining Toppers are the other three Swords, so let’s look at some pricing and comparisons, to see where these prices might go.

Now, we have prices on some of these, but it takes a seller with a lot of confidence to pre-sell these, especially in foil. Keep in mind that the VIP boosters are the ONLY way to get foil versions of the box toppers. I’m going to list the current low price for a foil on TCG as of Thursday night, and get some comparisons where I can. Not everything has a price yet, so be kind.

For most of these, there’s going to be a dip as soon as the VIP packs arrive and people rush to crack the value. Given the relatively small amount out there, though, I expect prices to recover at a decent pace. One more wrinkle to consider is that, according to the official Magic Twitter, “All borderless showcase cards with a rare expansion symbol will appear twice as frequently as those with a mythic rare expansion symbol. This is true of box toppers in #MTG2XM booster boxes as well as the premium foils of these cards in VIP Edition.”

So the slots for the toppers will have a 1/3 chance of being a mythic, and 2/3 of being rare. Even more math!

Karn Liberated ($108) – We have the Ultimate Masters Box Topper to compare to, and that’s right about $100, so the big question is, do you like the art? The Karn face is meme-ing all over the Magic community, and Mark Tedin has owned it, making it his Facebook profile pic:

Jokes aside, $100 seems totally reasonable for this foil. You’ve got your pick of art, with Jason Chan’s take being both iconic and powerful. It’s worth remembering that the people who like this are going to want to collect the matching Urza lands, which we’ll get back to.

Jace, the Mind Sculptor ($170) – Worldwake foils are at a cool $500, with Mythic Edition checking in at $175. That’s the only version that doesn’t use the original art, but now we get the original with a sweet frame. I think this is too closely priced to the Mythic price, and I’ll expect this JTMS to inch a little higher, likely to about $250. I don’t think you want to preorder yet, but there should be fewer of this than the Mythic Edition.

Council’s Judgment ($90) – As compared to the $70 Conspiracy foil, this seems perfectly reasonable. That was from a small set, and not opened a lot because people didn’t like the format. Keep in mind, too, that’s a release from 2014. As such, I think this is going to fall a bit from $90, and end up below the pack foil. Yes, it’s a way to get rid of True-Name Nemesis in Legacy, but there’s not the same level of demand as there is for Jace or some of these others, being in only 3800 decks on EDHREC.

Cyclonic Rift ($85) – The original foil is $60 or so, but this is new art and a new frame for one of the most annoyingly iconic Commander cards around. There’s no defense. Protection, hexproof, or shroud, it doesn’t matter. It’s been a rare twice and gotten a Commander reprint, and is in 91k decks online. That is an enormous amount of bouncing. Given all of that, I think $85 is too low for the foils, and it’ll stabilize about $120.

Phyrexian Metamorph ($50) – The pack foil is $15, so this seems like a big jump over that. Being in 15,000 decks online helps push this price upward. It’ll come down some from $50, but I’m expecting it to rebound nicely into the $60 range.

Dark Confidant ($100) – As a mythic, it’ll have a higher price than the rares, but $100 seems high, given the number of times it’s been reprinted. The Judge foil, using the original art and an old border, can be had for $125, so keeping this at $100 seems a tad high. Not too many people want this card, so a correction down into the $80 range is likely.

Sneak Attack ($60) – Given a judge foil of $40 and that this is a mythic, this is in the right range. It’s got a Legacy deck, but not a lot of Commander pull, so I’d expect it to go a touch lower.

Crop Rotation ($43) – Until Double Masters, there was only one foil: the original from Urza’s Legacy, the first set with foils. It was a common, even! About 20,000 people play this in their Commander decks online, and it’s a four-of in Legacy Lands, so there’s going to be a fair level of demand. Even with that, I think this is about the floor for foil box toppers from this set and it’s a decent price for now.

Doubling Season ($120) – This is $30 more than the original pack foil, and that feels off to me. It’s rare but possible for the new version to be pricier than the pack foil, but this has been printed a bunch of times, yet always climbs back up to $40. The nonfoil being $90 is definitely too high, but this one should fall back to the $90 or so of the original. It’s cute art, but not quite as iconic, and won’t command a premium.

Exploration ($90) – Okay, now this one is weird. Right now, the foil and the nonfoil box topper are within five bucks of each other. We can infer that one of two things is going on: Either the nonfoil is horribly overpriced, or the foils are horribly underpriced. My inclination is to say that the nonfoils are overpriced, because these foil, while absolutely gorgeous, are not going to be $150ish. More likely is that the foil comes down a little and the nonfoil comes down a lot.

Noble Hierarch ($90) – This is too high. The Judge foil with the old border, a lot more iconic than this frame, can be had in NM for about $15 more. The Ultimate Box Topper is a $60 foil. While it’s new art and a new treatment, it’s not enough for such a price jump.

Atraxa, Praetors’ Voice ($120) – This is a hard prediction to make. On one hand, the original Atraxa was Commander-only, and was $35 despite being reprinted in Commander Anthology 2. This is new art, and it’s been four years since the reprint. I’m going to guess that this foil stays in the $100 range, between the people who are upgrading from old Atraxa and also the ones who pick this up and then build a Commander deck around her. This is the #2 all time commander on EDHREC, so that’s the list of staples I’ll be keeping an eye on.

Kaalia of the Vast ($120) – In a lot of ways, the same pattern as Atraxa, only older. Kaalia was an original Commander, way back in 2011, and then reprinted in the first Anthology. She’s farther down the list than Atraxa, and encourages a different deckbuild. She also leaves out the two best colors in Commander, with no UG shenanigans. I don’t think she can hold this price, and I’d expect her to come down to about $80.

Next week I’ll finish the list!

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.