Core sets, especially given the current Magic calendar, are in a weird place. By design, they are a spot to reprint stuff that needs reprinting, and also represent the sets with the shortest amount of time in Standard.
Core 2020 isn’t quite lackluster, but after the combination of War of the Spark into Modern Horizons, it sure feels like a letdown. Despite what you might be thinking, the set isn’t terrible in terms of total value: right now, the value of one of each of all the cards is not that different from where Core 2019 was at the same point last summer.
What I want to do today is look at how the cards from 2019 did in their Standard lifetimes, and see what applies from that set to this set, so we can decide what’s a good buy as Commander 2019 and Thrones of Eldraine previews begin to suck up our attention.
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Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.
Yes, we’re going to have a fall set named Thrones of Eldraine, and apparently, all the Faeries cards in existence are getting bought up. That’s the most recent news.
Two days before that, though, we got word via a product information page that the four decks will focus on mechanics, rather than tribes. That product information page has been changed, so this is unofficial, and I’m keeping that in mind as I think about what I want to buy in anticipation.
The mechanics are flashback, madness, populate, and madness. We don’t know the colors of each, which is a shame, but a little work with Scryfall and we can see where the most likely color overlaps are and go from there.
In a way, I’m really glad that Eldraine was previewed right now (instead of the plan on Saturday) because now most people are caught up on Faeries and the Commander themes aren’t as obvious now.
One caveat about my method: I’m going for the number of cards that actually have the mechanic, not popular enablers. (e.g. Burning Vengeance, one of the best reasons to be on Flashback cards, won’t be on this count)
Madness
Populate
Flashback
Morph
White
2
5
16
28
Blue
7
0
24
52
Black
24
0
20
27
Red
16
0
30
29
Green
2
2
24
36
Multicolor
1 (BR)
6 (all GW)
0
7 + 4 colorless
By these numbers, it looks like BR Madness, GW Populate, RUG Flashback, and UG Morph.
Wizards isn’t confined by this data when it comes to Commander. In fact, this probably isn’t right at all, because black is only represented once. Flashback and Morph have a significant presence in all five colors, so I fully expect something wacky there. It’s been a while since we got four-colors, and maybe we’re getting new Partner commanders? We will find out soon, but even with this basic data, there’s a few picks I’m making.
Foil Avacyn’s Judgment ($0.50): Because Madness requires a setup card (some way to discard it on demand) you’re almost always operating from behind. You really, really want some way to make up for what you’re losing, and this is one of the best X-for-1 cards out there. This feels like an excellent card to be included in the deck itself, which means I want to have some foils at my disposal.
Foil Welcome to the Fold ($1): Also at about $1, supply is a bit shallower on this one which means it’s more likely to go up. All the reasons from Avacyn’s Judgment apply here, though there’s less chance of Blue being in the Madness deck. Lower supply does mean that people have bought more of this over the years, and it’s not hard to see why. Drawback is that this card is awful when not done for its madness cost.
Foil From Under the Floorboards ($0.50): Completing the cycle here is another sub-$1 foil, and this is a backbreaker of a card if you can do it at instant speed, then it’s your turn and you untap. A shame that you can’t ambush blockers, but it’s still very good and at this price, very low risk.
Foil Dralnu, Lich Lord ($10): As of this writing, there’s no NM foils available on TCG, and only 30 foils overall. Supply on a Time Spiral foil rare was never really extensive, but EDHREC shows this as a pretty unpopular card. I’m leery of it too, but when the decks are spoiled, and the Flashback deck is at least Dimir colors, this will go up just because it has the word on it. It’ll come back down in price pretty quick as people realize the inherent drawbacks, but I’m just trying to keep you ahead of the trend.
Mind over Matter ($20): This is easy money. First of all, it’s a Reserved List card, so it’s pretty unlikely to go down in value. Second, it’s a combo enabler all over the place. It’s an instant kill with Niv-Mizzet, the Firemind, and there’s a bunch of creatures that let you draw your whole deck with this out. Third, it’s awesome for Madness (because you discard) and Flashback (because you discard) at instant speed with zero mana invested. Just a little attention and this will go through the roof. Doubling up seems like a safe bet, but it might go all the way to $60 depending on the Commanders and cards that get revealed.
Foil Deathmist Raptor ($4): There aren’t a lot of value engines in a Morph deck, but a lot of them are in green. It’s nigh impossible not to get this back over and over again, and while we don’t know for sure what the colors are for the decks, this is a mythic from a smaller-run set and is unlikely to lose value over time. If the morph deck has green, this will jump to $10, perhaps $15, and you want to be able to sell into that hype.
Foil Ixidron (Now about $20): This was a lot less a week ago. Don’t buy into it now. It’s got a long history of being one of the most annoying cards at the Commander table, since it turns off almost every other creature. If the Morph deck is blue, this will be in the deck but there’s no profit to be made buying in at $20.
Foil Mischievous Quanar ($6): This hasn’t spiked yet, and that’s good for us. It requires a ton of mana but it’s a reusable effect and is a lot of fun. This is an old-border foil, supply is low, and it’s already in the Commander decks that want to do the copying thing.
Foil Obscuring Aether ($0.75): If you think the Morph deck is green, this is a great pickup. Three mana for a 2/2 always feels a little bad, and this enables turn two Morph plays.
Foil Weaver of Lies ($2): the buyout has begun on this card, but if you get in soon, you’ll find some NM foils still around. Again, this presumes the deck is blue, but there’s not a lot of ways to turn creatures face down and re-use their abilities.
Foil Mastery of the Unseen ($1): It’s white, but manifest and morph play well together.
Foil Secret Plans ($0.50): If you’re willing to bet on UG in the Morph deck, there’s nothing you want more. I’m not comfortable going that far, but this is going to hit $5 if the Commander is the right colors.
Foil Olivia, Mobilized for War ($5): BR seems like a pretty safe bet for the Madness deck, and Olivia v.2 gives a pretty great way to discard for value. Note that it’s any creature coming into play, so a token will trigger her ability.
Pack Rat ($2/$5): I’m in on the foil if you can, but if this isn’t in the Madness deck it’s going to pop. There’s generations of players who don’t know how absurd this card is, and perhaps it’s your turn to show them.
Skirge Familiar ($3): There’s no foils of this available, and the cost is pretty high at five mana. This enables a few different combos, and is a potential reprint in the Commander deck, but I will keep a close eye on this.
Tortured Existence ($1.50): If you’ve never seen this card loop things you hate to see looped, well, you’re in for it now. The problem is that if it’s reprinted, there’s no foils of this. Also, it requires the madness card to be a creature card. I wouldn’t get a ton, given those constraints.
Foil Altar of the Lost ($0.35): No matter the colors of the deck, this will see consideration if the deck is this focused. Plus it’s super cheap, a trait that always makes me feel better about a spec.
Foil Increasing Confusion ($3): This is already three bucks because people love mill strategies, and this is a neat flashback card too. Increasing Ambition is too costly for my taste, and the rest of the cycle is underpowered.
Foil Metallurgic Summonings ($5): If the flashback deck is spells-based, as seems likely, this is one of the best ways to get amazing value from spells you’re playing. Note it cards about converted mana cost, not what you paid, so Lingering Souls when flashed back would get you a 3/3.
Foil Secrets of the Dead ($5): This is already a $5 foil because there’s a lot of ways to enable it, and it’s a very strong candidate to be in a Flashback-based deck. I expect the foil to double, and if the card isn’t in the set, the nonfoil will go from fifty cents up to a couple dollars.
Foil Budoka Gardener ($8): Populate makes one copy of a token. I won’t be shocked to see a spell that has multiple instances of Populate on it, but we want to have big creature tokens for it to copy. This card is absurd early and late, and if it isn’t in the deck, the nonfoil could pop a bit too.
Foil Oviya Pashiri, Sage Lifecrafter ($1.50): Again, she’s good early and late, and I mostly prefer for the X/X tokens to be static rather than constantly changing. (e.g. Voice of Resurgence’s token)
FTV: Lore Phyrexian Processor ($2): Yes, it’s ugly FTV foiling but this is the only foil version available. There’s a lot of risk in a card like this (Unless you’re clever and have Trostani or Angelic Chorus out) but if you’re looking for big tokens, this’ll get you there.
Foil Wurmcalling ($2): Finally, a card near and dear to my own heart. It’s overcosted as compared to other X-sized token spells like the one-shot Slime Molding, but it’s repeatable and requires a counterspell to be dealt with permanently.
Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.
Time was, prices didn’t go anywhere until after the prerelease, and people got frantic to have four copies of the new card in time for the first weekend of new Standard legality. Prices didn’t change much because people didn’t have the chance to find out what was good via testing or gameplay.
That’s no longer the case. Both Magic Arena and Magic Online have had Core Set 2020 be legal for Standard brewing all of this week, and even with a holiday in the way, there’s some very interesting early returns…
Before we get to what’s gone up or down in price, a rule I have is that I will trade everything that I open away at a prerelease if someone wants it. Almost everything in this set is going to lose value, and in some cases, a lot of value. I know that trading them now, at the moment of smallest supply, is a real winner, especially for people who just want to get that card for a Commander deck because they need the new hotness!
Omnath, Locus of the Roil (Was $7, now about $10)
Omnath v3 is quite a lot of value for four mana, but people are really going haywire over what Risen Reef represents, and with very good reason. Risen Reef’s text translates to “When this or another Elemental comes into play, draw a card. If that card was a land, put it onto the field tapped.”
I realize a lot of you haven’t played with the first card that has this text: Coiling Oracle. Rest assured, this is a very powerful ability, and very much worth building around. Omnath gives two different bonuses to decks that are heavy on Elementals or on having lots of land, and fits very well as a follow-up to the Reef. Draw a card, ping something for two. Yikes indeed for a turn four play.
A rise this fast before the first paper games are played indicates that a lot of people are buying up copies, though we don’t know the optimal number yet it’s a mythic and IF the deck is real, I won’t be shocked at $15. I wasn’t interested at $7, and even less so at $10. There’s going to be some level of demand, but not enough to push Omnath much higher than $15.
Along those lines: Risen Reef has, well, risen to being $3. Please, keep a playset for yourself if you want but I’m shipping copies out as fast as I get them. It might get back up to $3 later, but it’s about to fall pretty hard.
Chandra, Acolyte of Flame (Was $5, now about $8)
If the Reef stays in play, this version of Chandra is a backbreaking followup. Two tokens means that at worst, you’re drawing two and playing those lands immediately.I am highly doubtful that this rare will stay this high in price, and again, I’m an immediate seller if I open any in prerelease events. I love the range of abilities on this planeswalker, and being only three mana is a very nice touch.
Chandra, Awakened Inferno (Now $18, was $14)
That emblem is a plus ability and people are going to have a tricky time adjusting to this super-powerful planeswalker. Jumping $2 in a week is heady stuff for a six-mana card in this environment, but it’s incredibly flexible and capable of solving almost any problem she may encounter. This is more expensive than I’d prefer, but it’s still going to be the chase mythic and the face of the set. Marketing will play a factor here, I think.
Leyline of Abundance (Now $5, was $2)
Lest we forget, we are still in the time of Llanowar Elf, and their triple-cousin of Llanowar Tribe. This Leyline is capable of being completely bonkers with the right combination of mana dorks, and we also have Nissa, Who Shakes the World! That’s a lot of additional mana and the question always degenerates to “what am I going to do with a boatload of mana?”
My favorite answer is currently Hydroid Krasis, but you fill in your big-mana card of choice, or just use the built-in mana sink to get the team bigger and bigger.
Lotus Field (Now $13, was about $16)
This has taken a real beating, having once presold above $20 and now tanking fast. People just aren’t playing it as much as hoped for. It’s good with a lot of different cards and Commander strategies. Unfortunately, even having protection from the opponent’s effect doesn’t seem to make up for the cost of two lands leaving play. As I’ve said, I’d really like for these to get cheap, and they are well on their way.
Lots of cards have fallen by a dollar or two as Arena and MTGO players start to define the metagame, and even with the rises and falls, there’s one Elemental I’m especially paying attention to:
Yarok, the Desecrated (Now $8, was $13)
If Risen Reef is good, how about doing it twice? There’s lots of ways to abuse this, but with Sultai already being popular, I think we’re going to see some lists running a couple of these plus a Muldrotha or two on ‘help you get out of the graveyard and start busting heads’ is going to be a frightening team.
Foils of Muldrotha are already Commander-expensive, but if you have a stomach for risk, Muldrotha might pay off well. Problem is, Muldrotha rotates out of Standard this fall. Being the commander is definitely not the way to get your card to be expensive, but the two Sultai are going to go together like peanut and jelly for a couple of months.
Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.
There’s a disturbing trend at work right now in the Core Set, and maybe it’s for the best after the wild rides we’ve been experiencing: This core set has booster pack card currently being sold above $20.
The caveat here is that some of the Planeswalker Deck specials are above that over on TCG, but they are an exception. Leyline of the Void, a $60 card two weeks ago, is being presold for $17 and that’s before anyone has opened a pack of this set. Ouch.
To put that in perspective, there’s currently two cards from Core Set 2019 which are more than $20, and that set was released a year ago. It’s been quite some time since we had a set so full of unexciting and cheap cards, lacking headliners or chase cards.
What’s this mean for us? A couple of things, and you should get your wallets ready.
The rest of this content is only visible to ProTrader members.
Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.
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