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Going Mad – The Good Guys

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By: Derek Madlem

Last week I might have come across a little hard on the #mtgfinance. Judging by the feedback I received, the zeitgeist was right there with me for most of what I said … and I received A LOT of feedback, more than any article I’ve ever written.

People associate a lot of bad things with #mtgfinance, even the use of the #mtgfinance hashtag has become a punchline to most people. Though to be fair, what hashtag has anyone ever taken seriously? #thanksObama

So now with everyone who tweets about the price of cards being evil we can all just agree that anyone that considers themselves a Magic financier is probably a terrible person right? After all, they’re out there just ripping off orphans, sharking trades from naive single mothers, and stealing Black Lotuses from the elderly using elaborate e-mail scams right?

The Retail Level

In the distant past there was a time when no Standard legal card was ever worth more than $20, it just didn’t happen. When you opened a pack of 4th Edition the best you could hope for was a Shivan Dragon because it was the most valuable card in the set at $20, with Royal Assassin right behind it at $18. Meanwhile, there were no “dollar rares” … even Chaoslace was $3, just go ahead and give that one a read.

ChaoslaceCards were hard to find, there were no internet stores…hell, there wasn’t really even an internet. It was years later when I convinced my mom to order a box of Tempest from an online store … she had to FAX HER CREDIT CARD INFO … things have come a long way since then.

When people began to approach selling cards as a business rather than a hobby, things revolutionized. Most cards got cheaper. As more and more people entered the fray, competition and innovation increased. The Chaoslaces of the world became what they should be – bulk. But some cards crept up in price. I missed the middle years of Magic, I was absent for everything that occurred from Invasion through Time Spiral block, but you know what I saw when I came back to the game?

Cryptic Command – $20
Bitterblossom – $20
Ajani Goldmane – $20

The best rares still didn’t seem to break through that $20 ceiling. But then we were introduced to Mythic Rares and everything was ruined. I mean seriously, it’s a Magic card … who would pay more than $20 for a stupid piece of cardboard?

As it turns out, a lot of people. Around this time there were a lot of people quitting because Magic was “getting too expensive.” At the  same time the game was experiencing a Groundswell of new players.

GroundswellDid these players come out of the woodwork because they were secretly waiting for a more expensive game to play? Obviously not. I’m going to put this next part in bold letters because it’s really important.

Tying up more of a set’s aggregate value in a few cards made running a game store easier.

Game stores are popping up everywhere and one of the main drivers of their success is selling Magic singles. Higher prices on popular cards creates opportunity for entrepreneurs. Think about this for a second: most stores made more profit selling a playset of Goblin Rabblemasters than they did selling a box of M15 … this is the reality of running a modern game store.

You know what provides you with all those tables at your local game store? I’ll give you a hint, it’s not the dollar rares or booster pack sales; it’s Baneslayer Angel and Bonfire of the Damned and Jace, the Mind Sculptor. It’s players like you buying cards like these that are creating a place for you and your friends a place to meet up and battle with Magic cards.

Supply and Supply

In my last article I drummed up the artificial creation of demand for certain cards. You know what else the Magic finance community does for you? They create supply as well. Whaaaaaaaat?

The “scrappers” of the finance community are out there aggressively digging through 5,000 count boxes pulling out the gems you need and they’re selling them by the fist full to online retailers, vendors at events, and local game stores. These people keep prices down by keeping the supply flowing into the hands of people that need the cards. With cards as mundane as Gitaxian Probe already hovering around $3, you can imagine what the price would be if the supply were cut in half.

It’s not just about picking bulk, these guys are combing the local game stores that lack an online presence and buying up staples and putting them back into circulation so that you can find them. They’re out there flipping through the binders and boxes of the most casual of players to pluck out these diamonds in the rough.

Scary StoreThey’re going into places like this to find cards, so you don’t have to. Those binder grinders are providing inventory for local game stores and online retailers alike to sell. You have to keep in mind that when a store runs out of Goblin Rabblemasters they can’t just order more from the distributor, they have to buy them second hand.

News Team Assemble!

“You heard it here first, the #mtgfinance crowd is not all bad … full story at 11”

One of the biggest benefits the #mtgfinance community has brought to the people is a dissemination of information. As more and more people provide regular content about the financial workings of the Magic economy, the average reader becomes more educated. While it sucks for the old-school sharks that made a fortune trading with the blissfully ignorant, the bulk of the Magic population is better served by being well-informed.

A genre that may have begun as articles about value trading has evolved into much much more. We have writers bringing over real-world finance lessons and explaining complicated concepts in simple terms. We have weekly reports on what we’re buying and selling to promote transparency.

We’ve got writers “attacking the format” from a variety of different angles – casual, Standard, Modern, eternal formats, Commander, Tiny Leaders, and the list goes on and on. I know that I sure don’t care to learn the worldwide metagame for EDH, I play against the same four or five people…but if I read what others are saying about popular EDH cards, then I have a more informed perspective.

All of these content creators are providing current and trending news on the cards you want and the cards you own. They’re boiling down complex concepts and interactions into 140 characters. They’re publishing 2,000 word manifestos on the inner workings of Tiny Leaders. They’re putting in the work analyzing and interpreting trends so you can focus your free time on what makes Magic so magical – playing the game.

As the volume of finance content created increases, the public becomes more informed and we have fewer people throwing away hundreds of dollars on sure-to-fail preorders. As the general public becomes more informed buyers we’ll see a decrease in those outrageous preorder prices and we’ll more quickly discover the cards that have real motivators for demand.

Most importantly we’ll hear less of that guy at our local game store making bold predictions on mundane cards because his audience will be informed enough to shut him up.

Technology

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w9ERiI1epI4

I agree, I love technology. You know what drives technology and innovation? Money. Take a look at all of the sweet offerings you have at your fingertips because of this whole #mtgfinance thing. Sites like MTGPrice and QuietSpeculation have cobbled together an assortment of tools to make your lives easier.

Buylist automation and collection tracking are just the tip of the iceberg as far as features we have at our disposal for under a few bucks a month.

We have portable access to pricing through apps and there are numerous “fair trade” apps that will make sure that you don’t leave a single penny on the trade table. All of this technology was created because of the #mtgfinance community. You may not think yourself a financier, but if you’ve ever looked up the price of a card then you’re a part of the community as a whole.

Maybe Not So Bad

Magic finance isn’t all about called shots, buyouts, and spec targets, it’s about understanding the underlying principles. We can read articles to find out the “why” instead of just looking up the “what” of a price.

We have access to a variety of resources that all popped up around this little community. Historic pricing data aggregated from dozens of sources? Yeah, we’ve got access to that. Daily gain / loss reports in our e-mail inbox? Yeah, we’ve got access to that. How many of you remember the old days when you had to log into starcitygames.com the night before you went to FNM to look up the prices of all your cards so that you were on point at the trade tables? Now we’ve got access to up to the minute pricing on our phones from a variety of sources.

We’re living in a world with no $3 Chaoslaces, and I have a hard time saying that’s a bad thing. The next time you hear someone mention MTG finance, remember the good things this community does for all of us regardless of our level of participation.

Until next time, you can find me on twitter @GoingMadlem or you can find me at GP Atlantic City working at the Aether Games booth, stop by and say hello.

 

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WEEKLY MTGPRICE.COM MOVERS: May 3/15

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By James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

5 Winners of the Week

Dragons of Tarkir continues to shake up standard, but the hype is real for Modern Masters 2015 and the upcoming release is moving prices as well. Let’s have a look at what’s up with the Magic cards that are moving and shaking this week:

1. Dragonlord Ojutai (DTK, Mythic): $29.74 to $37.29 (+25%)

Dragonlord Ojutai is as close it’s likely peak as I’m willing to risk, and with the ever changing nature of the current Standard meta, I’m all about getting out of this fantastic spec at a healthy 450%+ profit.

Format(s):Standard/Modern/Casual/EDH

Verdict: Sell

2. Spell Snare (Modern Masters, Uncommon): $4.47 to $5.47 (+22%)

I don’t have good info on whether this is in Modern Masters 2015, but my instincts say that it won’t be. Apparently, others agree, as the card has started climbing. If you can find some lying around at earlier pricing, it’s not a terrible idea to jump in on a strong counterspell with legs in Modern and Tiny Leaders. My personal preference would be to make the play on foils here.

Verdict: Trade/Buy

Format(s): Modern/Tiny Leaders

Verdict: Sell

3. Dragonlord Dromoka (DTK, Mythic): $7.66 to $9.06 (18%)

Just when you thought it wasn’t possible for another DTK Dragonlord to make it to center stage, here we are with the big lug gaining momentum as a reasonable threat against Esper Dragons and other counter heavy decks. The ability to shut down opponent’s spell on your own turn can really help swing a game in your favor, as can the cards’ Baneslayer Angel mode in combat. The metagame coming out of the weekend didn’t feature many copies, so I’d be comfortable selling/trading into the minor hype bump and then looking to buy in around $5 or $10-12 foils later this summer. All of the Dragonlords have future casual appeal, and a few are good enough for EDH, so there are plenty of reasons to pick a good entry point on these soaring hype lizards.

Format(s): Standard/Casual/EDH

Verdict: Sell/Trade

4. Fleecemane Lion (DTK, Mythic): $2.73 to $3.10 (14%)

Fleecemane is the most popular aggressive creature in multiple green based aggro and mid-range decks and likely deserves this late game bump heading towards rotation and obscurity. The time will never be better to unload these, as rapid metagame shifts could lead it in the dust.

Format(s): Standard/Tiny Leaders

Verdict: Sell/Trade

5. Blood Moon (Modern Masters, Rare): $17.80 to $20.19 (+13%)

Just as speculation is running rampant on a Modern Masters 2015 reprint, Blood Moon finds itself waxing in importance for Modern. This is an interesting tension, as a reprint should send the card down towards $15, while a no-show in the set could see it climb above $30 in all versions.

Format(s): Modern

Verdict: Sell

 

3 Top Losers of the Week

1. Glittering Wish: $9.40 to $7.05 (-25%)

Folks (including myself) were nattering about this card earlier this year, pegging it to do new and exciting things in Modern, but that play pattern hasn’t appeared, so the card is falling back once again. I’ve always liked this card around $5, and I will be acquiring if it falls back a bit further. The power level of tutors simply cannot be denied, and I believe that a deck will eventually emerge that puts this to work.

Format(s): Modern/Tiny Leaders

Verdict: Buy at $5

2. Narset, Transcendent: $30.19 to $25.23 (16%)

I’ve been avoiding this chiquita like the plague as she seemed destined for a fall from the very beginning when she was pre-ordering for $50. Anyone who dove in on this underplayed (yet powerful) planeswalker up front has lost half their investment already, and I fully expect Narset to fade towards $15 before long on lack of play. That being said, a few great proactive spells are possibly all she needs to get back in the saddle, even if it doesn’t come together for several months. Dragons of Tarkir doesn’t rotate until fall 2016, so her moment may still be coming.

Verdict: Sell/Trade

3. Shorecrasher Elemental: $4.02 to $4.76 (+16%)

With so many cards in Dragons of Tarkir hitting peak value on reasonably high levels of play, any remaining rares and mythics that aren’t pulling their weight at the top tables have to fall back to balance the EV of the set. Like Narset, this fantastic Blue Devotion enabler hasn’t live up to the hype. The catch however, is that a thirty-two creature blue devotion deck just made Top 4 of the SCG open, running green generating lands to cast some epic end of turn Collected Companies and turn on Thassa when opponent’s least expect it. There isn’t a lot of time left for this strategy to come forward in the metagame, but a great 2-drop in Magic: Origins in July could be all we need to push it over the top heading into the fall rotation. As such, I like this card anywhere under $4, looking to exit around $7-8 if it finds it’s way.

Verdict: Buy/Trade

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

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Going Mad, Uncategorized

Going Mad – The Observer Effect

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By: Derek Madlem

If you haven’t caught on by now, I’m not your typical #MTGFinance guy. I don’t like graphs or pie charts and I don’t look at the daily gain / loss reports that are generated by various sites. I’ll confess that I don’t even read most of what my compatriots have written outside of Twitter. I often wonder how I ended up writing a weekly column dedicated to Magic finance when I take such an adversarial stance against the concept in general.

The Good Fight

But now I’m on the inside and I like to tell myself that I’m fighting the good fight … dismantling this Diabolic Machine from the inside.Diabolic MachineYou can see me there (sans beard) getting ready to thrust my sword into the evil gears that turn continuously powering this machine of destruction.

Don’t get me wrong, some of what we write about is useful. The basic economics put in Magic terms is hugely beneficial for people’s understandings of card prices and the how and why of their movement.  Understanding supply, demand, and price elasticity goes a long way into understanding how price spikes work. This is great stuff to know.

The finance community has come along way from the weekly articles where Medina taught us different ways to convince a stranger that their cards were worth less than his. But we still do a lot of things that I question.

The Observer Effect

The observer effect is a scientific principle that basically says you can’t measure something without effecting the results of that measurement.

For example, a mercury thermometer can’t take your temperature without absorbing some of the heat your body produces, thus altering your body’s temperature. Another example would be Jane Goodall studying chimpanzees in their natural habitat … you know what doesn’t occur naturally in their habitat? Jane Goodalls. By merely being there to observe, she altered the behavior of those she was observing.

While sometimes the effect of observation is going to be on the impossibly low end of the spectrum, like taking the temperature of the ocean. Other times it’s going to have a direct impact on the results, like you’d see in your psychologists office.

Where am I going with this and does it have to do with Magic cards?

BecvarOne of things you’ll see us Magic financiers do is send out Tweets like this one. We’ll suggest a card publicly because we’re an altruistic bunch and our only interest is to help others. We’re just thinking of the greater good and want everyone to make money. It’s our little way of paying our followers back for making us into the proto-gods that we’ve become in this cottage industry.*

*this paragraph contains copious amounts of sarcasm

Now first I have to admit that I pick Nick for this because we’ve had this debate a number of times and I’ve determined through repeated observations in the wild that he is an absolute monster and most who know him will back this up. He’s also (usually) a good sport when it comes to this sort of dissenting discourse.

Nick, whether intentionally or unintentionally, is having an impact on the demand for Hero of Iroas simply by talking about Hero of Iroas.

Hypothesis: by making a public observation of a card’s value, we’re affecting the price of that card.

The Morality of Intent

This is where things get murky for me, and where the debate has gone off the rails for everyone that I’ve ever attempted to have it with.

Why are we tweeting out or writing about this information? For some of us, it’s what we get paid to do. Providing you with insights on card value is what we’re getting paid to do, it’s why we’re here at all.

For others, it’s about building a brand … I don’t know what exactly that brand is selling, but branding is important you know!

Others still just want to be right, in public. We want that “I listened to this guy and made $100, you should listen to him too” endorsement. We want that credibility and to be considered an expert in our chosen field.

Sleight of HandUltimately it’s a performance, a magic trick we perform so that we can revel in the applause. It’s not enough to simply buy some cards and then tell people how much money we made buying those cards, we have to put on the show. And like any good magician, the audience is manipulated into seeing what the performer wants.

“Whoa whoa whoa, that’s sounding kind of accusatory”
-concerned reader somewhere

The Bandwagon

One of the most noticeable effects we’ve seen the last couple of years is the bandwagon effect in #mtgfinance. It starts with a card being mentioned, then the price starts to move, and then the next thing you know the silent masses buy out the card and relist it at ridiculous prices. But what happens when the buyout isn’t complete? The price comes crashing back down to reality because Bob’s Card Shack is still selling Bösium Strip for $3.

The reality of the bandwagon is that the more people that jump on, the more effective it is. If I invest in some cards and then convince you to invest in those same cards, I’ve created a ripple. If I convince you and 1,000 other people to invest in those cards, that ripple becomes something more.

Goblin RabblemasterSo what’s the difference between one guy buying out a 1,000 copies of a card and 50 people buying 20 copies each? When one guy relists his cards to sell at a higher price he’s just that crazy guy on TCG that sells things for way too much, but when 50 people relist at higher prices … it just might stick.

The Defense

I’ve asked numerous people why they tweet out “hot tips” if they aren’t trying to get more people to buy in and they’ve given me a variety of answers. Let’s look at a few of those ideas.

“I really think they’re a good investment” – if buying three was a good investment, why not buy six? Why not buy twelve? If you are 100% confident in an investment, why not keep your mouth shut and buy all available copies? Don’t have enough to buy all of them? Why not keep quiet and buy some copies now and go back for the rest when you can? After all, you’re going to make some serious bank right?

If you’re not 100% certain it’s a good investment, how sure are you? Should you be recommending people buy in on a card that you’re only 60% sure of? Are you trying to turn a 60% into a 70 or 80%? Who are you trying to convince that your target is a good spec? Yourself or the general public?

“I’m already going to make enough money off this spec” – Wut?

The idea that you can make “enough money” off of a spec target that you’re buying only to make money is kind of ridiculous.

“I don’t really think my tweet will have an impact” – then why are you tweeting about it? This is akin to the argument about mana weaving before shuffling your deck, either it does something and you’re technically cheating or it does nothing and you’re wasting your time.

Truth in Advertising

When I tweet about a card that I think is a good buy, it’s because I’m not 100% certain (I’m rarely more than 99% sure of anything). If I was ever 100% certain about a spec target, I would silently buy out the entire internet.

I want you to buy in too. I know that the more people who know/realize/believe a card is a good buy the more likely it is to become a good buy.  The more people on the bandwagon, the more profitable it gets.

I want to have credibility. I want to be famous. I want to be an authority on Magic finance. I want people to come to me with opportunities to work for them, I want a large network that provides me more of these opportunities. I want to see my phone lighting up with praise and testimonials.

I want to be honest. I want to be the change I want to see in the world. I want more people to be aware and honest about the things the Magic finance community does. If for no other reason than to avoid being implicated in a global pricing conspiracy orchestrated by a shadowy card Illuminati.

Observation Effect

This is where I restate my premise for dramatic effect and summarize the things I’ve said in a slightly different way.

Making observations on card prices absolutely has an effect on card prices. You know why the price of price of a Revised edition Ironclaw Orcs hasn’t really changed in twenty years? Because nobody cares. As soon as we start caring about a card and making others care about a card, we have an impact on it.

That impact varies from person to person. I could write about a card every week for a month and it would likely have less impact than Chas Andres or Gerry Thompson writing about it once. Some people are starting avalanches while others only have the clout to check the temperature of the ocean, but both are impacting the things they observe.

Command Tower

Let me make one thing clear – I’m not accusing or condemning anyone other than Becvar. If this article causes my peers to think before they speak and my readers to think before they act then I’ll have accomplished a lot.

Whether we choose to acknowledge, deny, or embrace it; all of our observations are impacting the cards we observe. Act accordingly.

For more hot card tips you can find me on Twitter: @GoingMadlem

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The Most Expensive Dragons

3 Comments

By Guo Heng

Today’s article is going to start off by picking up where last week’s article left off before delving into this article’s main topic – the most expensive dragons in Magic’s history – which was inspired by the first segment of this article. I wrote in-depth about Ugin, the Spirit Dragon‘s financial fate last week, and a reader wanted to know more about the future of the Ugin’s Fate alternate art Ugin, which I left out.

Ugin, the Spirit Dragon, by Chris Rahn.
Ugin, the Spirit Dragon, by Chris Rahn.

I did not discuss the alternate art Ugin in my analysis last week as the article was already approaching 3,600 words and I thought there would not be too many people interested in reading about the finance of an extremely rare card. After all, how many people out there owns one?  Turns out I was wrong. There were indeed readers interested in the financial fate of the coveted Ugin’s Fate promo alternate art Ugin, which we shall refer to as ‘Blue Ugin’ from now on, as Ugin looks like he was in cahoots with Heisenberg in Chris Rahn’s art.

Let me start by saying that I had the chance to buy Blue Ugin for $50, but I passed it on. I thought $50 was the ceiling for Blue Ugin. Its not even foil, which lowered its collectibility and price in my eyes. I thought Commander players would prefer to run shiny Ugins in their decks (back then, I assumed Ugin’s eternal play demand – foils- would solely come from the Commander crowd).

I was so wrong.

Apparently a card’s scarcity was a more powerful price driver than I had imagined. Blue Ugin shot up all the way to $200 on eBay following Fate Reforged’s prerelease weekend. In retrospect, it was resoundingly obvious: Blue Ugin was a rare combination of an iconic card and extreme scarcity, and players and collectors were willing to pay Tarmogoyf price for it. Blue Ugin has now settled at $180 on StarCityGames, and around $130 to $150 on eBay as of writing.

I guess I overlooked the fact that the supply of Blue Ugins in the world would be capped at the number of Blue Ugins that were opened over the prerelease weekend.

Or is it?

Judge Foil Blue Ugin?

Here comes the wild card in determining the long-term potential of Blue Ugin. In my previous article, I established that the price of Ugin, the Spirit Dragon is unlikely to tank much as he is one of those rare few cards that has appeal in every single format except for Vintage (for now). Check out the article for my explanation and supporting evidence on how I arrived at that conclusion.

Which means the price of Blue Ugins can only go upward from here, assuming the assumption that the last Blue Ugin was opened on Fate Reforged’s prerelease weekend. However, I am beginning to think it may not be so.

To reiterate what I’ve touched on last week, it makes business sense for Wizards to reuse Chris Rahn’s art for another printing of Ugin, but I doubt Wizards would recycle Chris Rahn’s art for a Duel Deck reprint. Wizards are well aware of the secondary market and they do respect the fact that players and collectors paid a hefty sum for their cards (Good guy Wizards).

I am of opinion that the biggest risk to the price of Blue Ugins is a judge foil reprint. I proposed last week that we would most likely see Blue Ugin as a judge foil within the next few years, rather than a widely accessible reprint. Judge foils have always been used as an avenue to release highly sought after Commander and eternal staples in alternate art form and Ugin definitely fits the bill for a Judge foil reprint. Plus I can’t be the only one who thinks Chris Rahn’s art would look absolutely impressive in foil.

What would a judge foil reprint do to Blue Ugin’s price? I think the current non-foil version would definitely lose some of its allure and price. Blue Ugin commands a higher price than set foil Ugin as Blue Ugin is currently the rarer version. A judge foil reprint would eclipse that and it would garner aesthetic points for being in foil. You know, from Metalworker players who want to foil out their Ugins.

How much would the price of Blue Ugin drop? It’s hard to say for sure, but we can make a deduction based on a few assumptions. First off, we know that the supply of non-foil Blue Ugin from Ugin’s Fate packs would remain the same. There will be a small number of new Blue Ugins entering the market from unopened Ugin’s Fate booster packs being opened some time in the future. For the purpose of our deduction, we can consider that very sight bump in supply to be insignificant.

Secondly, we can assume that the supply of Blue Ugin is likely to be lower than that of the set foil Ugin. Fate Reforged is being drafted for half-a-year, and foil sets are being redeemed off Magic Online. Putting those two assumptions together, it is safe to conclude that the price of Blue Ugin would unlikely drop any lower than set foil Ugin, which is currently at $97, even in the scenario where Blue Ugin is reprinted as a judge foil, based on the merit that Blue Ugins are scarcer.

If we do indeed see a Blue Ugin judge foil in the future, we can assume that the non-foil Blue Ugin would still be more expensive than a set foil Ugin, but at a lower margin than the extra $30 – $50 it is currently enjoying. I am confident that the price of set foil Ugins would go on a gradual upward trajectory like that of the foil Eldrazis. Which means by the time we see a Blue Ugin judge foil, a set foil Ugin could be worth $120 – $130 and even if a non-foil Blue Ugin were to be worth a mere $10 – $20 more, Blue Ugins would probably still command a price range of $130 – $150. Which is it’s current price.

If you happen to own a Blue Ugin, I don’t think they will drop in price, even in the scenario of a judge foil reprint, due to Ugin’s long-term appreciation making up for lost value from reprint. However, if the judge foil reprint does not happen, congratulations, you have just bought a piece of Magic history that could very well have no ceiling in the long-run.

Magic history? While writing about the price of Blue Ugin, being a dragon aficionado and collector, I pondered about where Blue Ugin would rank among the most expensive dragons in Magic’s twenty-two year history. Which led me to dig through the price of all the dragons ever printed in Magic.

Here are the seven most expensive dragons in Magic.

7. Nicol Bolas From the Vaults: Dragons Foil, $46.40

Back in the old days.
Back in the old days.

It is slightly ironic that Ugin’s archnemesis, Nicol Bolas follows Ugin on the list of most expensive dragons, although here we see Nicol Bolas in his younger, svelter, pre-planeswalker-spark Elder Dragon body.

Nicol Bolas is the only dragon on this list whose price I am unable to explain. All his other printings, including the Time Spiral foil are not worth much. Nicol Bolas  has been hovering around $50 for years and he is not exactly popular as a commander. Maybe it’s D. Alexander Gregory’s new art in which Bolas was described as one who looks like he works out at the gym after a hard day of charring souls and crushing cities.

6. Scion of the Ur-Dragon Foil, $74.01

It’s the Scion of Err… Dragon.

Scion of the Ur-Dragon has always enjoyed a high foil multiplier, being the sole go-to commander for five-color dragons. Scion foils were hovering around the $30s for years on the back of Commander demand. Foil Scion spiked to $50 at the end of last year in anticipation of the influx of dragons from Dragons of Tarkir and once more to $70 in the middle of March this year.

Scion of Ur-Dragon is pretty insane with the addition of the young versions of the Dragonlords from Fate Reforged that grant your dragons a trigger when they attack. An alpha strike with Ojutai, Soul of Winter and a Scion mimicking Nicol Bolas is good times. Don’t get me started on Atarka, World Render.

5. Foil Scourge of the Throne, $91.97

Scourge of Commander

Scourge of the Throne spiked in early March from $7 to $15 and its foil went from $60 to $90. As with Scion of the Ur-Dragon, Scourge of the Throne’s price was driven solely by Commander demand, explaining its high foil price.

Scourge seems to be designed with Commander in mind. It has a splashy effect that is viable in no other format but Commander, and Scourge allows you to dabble in the politics of Commander games (unlike say, Thundermaw Hellkite who just Hulk smashes an unfortunate opponent).

Conspiracy is a set chock-full of Commander and eternal-playable cards, as is prevalent from the huge foil multiplier the set’s most expensive cards command. While the set’s print run was not limited, it is fading further and further away into the recesses of time. Conspiracy was well received and there are rumors about the possibility of Conspiracy 2 next year.

4. Niv-Mizzet, the Firemind 2006 Champs Foil, $129.99

Wizards have a thing with promos. Players love them, and Wizards loves handing them out as event prizes or participation promos.  Most of the time they are worth little, but they are some the most beautiful cards to see the light of day. Sometimes they are worth quite a little. Occasionally we stumble upon one that is worth a fortune.

The full art foil Champs promo Niv-Mizzet, the Firemind is in the later category.

The most fabulous dragon in Ravnica.
The most fabulous dragon in Ravnica.

Foil full art Niv-Mizzet was given out to the winners of Champs in 2006. It’s easy to see why Niz-Mizzet is worth so much. Todd Lockwood’s art is drop-dead gorgeous, Niv-Mizzet is a fun (or broken) commander, and Niv-Mizzet is one of the coolest dragons in Magic lore.

The only downside is the removal of Niz-Mizzet’s flavor text. The Guildpact version of Niv-Mizzet had one of the coolest flavor text in any Magic card. The one from the From the Vaults: Dragons version is pretty witty too.

3. Blue Ugin, $165.00 – $179.99

Give me all your money, said Ugin.
Give me all your money, said Ugin.

Near-mint copies of Blue Ugin could be found on TCGPlayer from $165 and StarCityGames is doing him for $179.99. eBay listings were closing at $130 – $150 as of writing. I’ve ranked Blue Ugin based on his retail price here as the other dragons were ranked similarly.

2. Zodiac Dragon, $263.99

The only Zodiac that was worth anything. Well, a lot.

Zodiac Dragon comes from the extremely difficult to find Portal Three Kingdoms set which was sold only in the Asian market. Home to inordinately expensive Legacy key pieces like Imperial Recruiter and Imperial Seal, and Commander high-end cards like Ravages of War and Capture of Jingzhou, Portal Three Kingdoms boasts one of the highest total set price among all Magic sets. Zodiac Dragon was one of the 12 Zodiac creature cycle, all of which are worth nought except for Zodiac Dragon.

Zodiac Dragon sees no play in any format, and the dragon’s stats are considered disappointing in this age of Magic. Zodiac Dragon nevertheless commands a price tag higher than that of Tarmogoyf courtesy of being one of the rarest dragons in Magic. And that art. Is the dragon flying or running?

1. Alpha Shivan Dragon, $1599.99

The mintiest of them all.
The mintiest of them all.

I was surprised that the most expensive dragon you could buy was not Zodiac Dragon, but rather a near-mint BGS 9 Alpha Shivan Dragon from StarCityGames.

An Alpha Shivan Dragon is veritable piece of Magic history. It was the first dragon in Magic. It shaped the way red turned out to be in the color pie, as Richard Garfield recalled in booklet found in From the Vaults: Dragons:

The biggest effect of Shivan Dragon on how the Magic game turned out may be that it’s the biggest reason red has flying. Of course, Magic had to have a dragon, and what with the fire and the destruction and the traditional mountain home, it was a shoo-in for red. But it also had to fly, and red was the magic of earth – the least likely element to get airborne. This was wrestled with for a while, and eventually we decided that big fliers in red were okay. But without Shivan Dragon leading the way, perhaps fliers in red would be as rare as direct damage in blue!

And Shivan Dragon was one of the first chase rares in Magic. It was rumoured to be worth as much as a Black Lotus during the early days of Magic ($25). A big portion of the price of the Shivan Dragon above stems from the fact that it is a BGS-graded Alpha card. An near-mint ungraded one is just $999.99, and would still top the table of most expensive dragons in Magic.

The Priceless One

One more thing.

It’s a challenge both to cast, and pronounce the dragon’s name.

Shichifukujin Dragon was not on the most expensive list because it is one of a kind. As in there is only one Shichifukujin Dragon in the world, and as with unique object like these, they are priceless.

Shichifukujin Dragon was created to commemorate the opening of the DCI Tournament Centre in Tokyo and I believe it is still hanging there. Mark Rosewater regaled the story of how Shichifukujin Dragon came into existence in an article written ten years ago. Below is an excerpt from Mark’s article:

To commemorate the opening of the DCI Tournament Center, Wizards was asked if they could design and draw (just as I designed both cards, Chris Rush illustrated both of them – back then he was a full-time Wizards employee) a card called Shichifukujin Dragon. Shichifukujin is the name of the Seven Deities of Good Fortune in Japanese mythology. The card was very symbolic as it was supposed to bring good luck to the DCI Tournament Center. Chris Rush drew a lovely picture. And just as it was about to go off to press, it occurred to someone, “Hmm, perhaps it might be cool to put actual rules text on the card.”

So they came to me. They needed a cool mechanic that matched the name and art. Oh, and I had an hour. As the art had to be a seven-headed dragon, I looked for a mechanic that played into the card’s seven-headedness. That is where I came up with the idea of the seven +1/+1 counters. Somehow seven heads got me thinking of hydras and I came up with the idea that it could grow new heads. But to do so it had to make itself more vulnerable for some duration of time. As I played around with the card I came up with the idea of losing two +1/+1 counters to get three… at the end of the turn. I quickly had the rules text templated (by a trained professional – I know better than to get involved in templating) and handed off the card.

There you go. The most expensive dragons in Magic’s history. If you know of any dragons I’ve missed after painstakingly browsing through every card in Gatherer with ‘dragon’ in its name or text and checking its price, do share with me in the comments below, or catch me on Twitter @theguoheng. Do drop a comment below too, or tweet to me if you just want to share you love of dragons.