The Watchtower 12/24/18 for ProTraders – Plan Your Specs

By: Travis Allen
@wizardbumpin


Don’t miss this week’s installment of the MTG Fast Finance podcast, an on-topic, no-nonsense tour through the week’s most important changes in the Magic economy.


Holiday tidings are upon us, and as the country spends the next 36 hours sharing their love with family and friends, we, the truly enlightened, are grinding Magic card value in front of our computers. Today we’ll hit a cross section, touching on Standard, Modern, and EDH. Buy some cards, then go eat a bunch of christmas cookies, drink egg nog, and fall asleep before the stomach ache sets in.

March of the Multitudes

Price Today: $5
Possible Price: $15

I’m poking my head into Standard again with the release of some Ravnica Allegiance spoilers. This time around the guilds are Orzhov, Gruul, Azorius, Rakdos, and Simic. Of the mechanics we’ve seen so far, Orzhov’s ‘afterlife’ is possibly the most competitive-aligned. Back in the second Ravnica era, there was a remarkably successful and popular deck by the name of Aristocrats. Lacking anything in common with the meta-joke told by comedians to each other, Aristocrats was a strategy that used Doomed Traveler, Falkenrath Aristocrat, and their ilk to value opponents out with plenty of 1/1s, small advantages, clever play, and fun interactions between creatures.

‘Afterlife’ is a codified version of this deck, essentially turning every single creature with the mechanic into a Doomed Traveller. Even if a true Aristocrats-style deck doesn’t materialize, the value generated by your creatures leaving behind a 1/1 is significant when utilized properly. March of the Multitudes favorably interacts with afterlife on two dimensions. On the one, afterlife ensures that you’re better able to keep bodies on the board to convoke into a large March. On the other, both March and afterlife create 1/1 tokens, meaning that both are going to be rewarded for the same payoffs, e.g. Divine Visitation.

March at $5 is just about as low as we’re going to see it in Standard. If an afterlife value engine emerges from Allegiance, and March is part of that, we could see prices double or even triple as the key mythic in the deck. Keep an eye out for forthcoming articles from pros, specifically Sam Black, to see if they combine the two.

Kitchen Finks (Foils)

Price Today: $4 ($35)
Possible Price: $8 ($80)

On the Modern side of things, Ultimate Masters brought quite a few reprints that will reward opportune investment. There’s price points all over the board here to capitalize on, and on the lower end of things, we have Kitchen Finks this week.

Now, if you know anything about Magic, I don’t need to explain Kitchen Finks to you. Other than perhaps Lightning Bolt and Birds of Paradise, I can’t think of a card that has been a more permanent staple of the format. Their usage waxes and wanes with the format, of course, but you’ll never lose money betting that you’ll find a few of them floating around the room of any Modern tournament.

With UMA come new pack foils, which are available for as low as $4 today. Looking in on other foil editions, we can see that’s quite low. MMA foils are fetching $8 to $9, and they rise from there, up to $30 or so for Shadowmoor foils. With Finks’ ubiquity, I see the UMA foils catching the MMA ones eventually. If you’ve ever wanted a foil set, grab your UMA ones now, because I suspect they’ll catch up to the MMA ones before long.

As an addendum, those box toppers are great looking, and liable to climb strongly from $35. If you can catch some of these on an eBay 15% off sale or something similar, I’m a fan. I suspect box toppers across the board are going to rise, and these are eminently playable, and cheap enough that one could chase the full set.

Bonus Round (Foil)

Price Today: $8
Possible Price: $20

Over in EDH, Niv Mizzet continues to be one of the most popular “not Atraxa or Muldrotha” commanders. As a general that encourages drawing cards and pinging people, there are some cool ways to build him, such as those that use Thousand-Year Storm. And while that’s a cool card, it’s not what we’re looking at today.

Rather, I’m checking in on Battlebond. Remember that set? All the way back from June of this year? Man it has been a long 2018. Yes, Battlebond was printed just six months ago, yet we’ve all collectively forgotten it exists. EDH hasn’t though, and they continue to make use of the cards found there. While scrolling through Niv Mizzet lists, I decided to check in on Bonus Round, and I see potential.

Bonus Round is, most importantly, a cool card. EDH has lots of cards. Many are cool, and many are utilitarian. The cool ones are more likely to find their way into decks, because when deciding if your deck should be efficient or it should be cool, you’re going to pick cool in EDH. Bonus Round sets up huge turns that do awesome things, and no self-respecting EDH player is going to forgo Bonus Round in any deck where it fits. Not when it provides so much potential.

You’ll find foils at $8 right now. There’s some on the market — some. It’s only been six months though. What’s this going to look like a year from now?


Travis Allen has  been playing Magic: The Gathering since 1994, mostly in upstate New York. Ever since his first FNM he’s been trying to make playing Magic cheaper, and he first brought his perspective to MTGPrice in 2012. You can find his articles there weekly, as well as on the podcast MTG Fast Finance.


 

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Mechanics Revealed!

One of the things that is pretty amazing about Wizards is their knack for keeping us going on the hype train. They have a dozen sets/releases/specials per year (Is it more? Less? I’m not sure anymore!) but we almost never have a chance to feel bored. Ready to take some time off and have the holidays? Here’s the mechanics from Ravnica Allegiance, just to wet your whistle and get you thinking.

Let me tell you, there’s some speculating to be done here.

I’m going to look at each of the guilds and their mechanics, and identify some picks that I think will have potential, given what we know. I’ve pulled some interesting targets out for Standard and for EDH as well.

The rest of this content is only visible to ProTrader members.

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expensive cards

ProTrader: Magic doesn’t have to be expensive.

 

Cliff has been writing for MTGPrice for five years now, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP (next up: Oakland in January!) and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Unlocked Pro Trader: A-A-AzoriUS

If you’re like me and you’re always looking for an excuse to reference Duran Duran tunes from the 80s, you’ll love the title to this article. If you’re like also me and love Magic cards that are new and are about to evolve their own brand new archetypes, or at least make people think they’re going to. I can delve more into the Simic later because I think it will matter but I think there’s a ton of hype surrounding a certain card that was spoiled today (Monday) and I think whether or not the deck amounts to anything, there is a ton of hype. The card, of course, not just because it’s the only commander spoiled so far this week but also because it’s the only Azorius card spoiled so far, is this bundle of joy.

Blue Gaddock Teeg, as she likes to be called, is about to make life pretty miserable. If you just leave her on the battlefield, she’s going to shut down Etali, Intet, Narset, Maelstrom Wanderer and a host of decks that use mana rocks to ramp. If you play with Armageddon and other white Land Destruction, you’ll make it so they can’t recover quickly enough to catch you. If you go even farther, well, you can make sure you’re the only one who plays a game of Magic and IO think that’s pretty nifty. Let’s take a look at all the ways we can do that.

Building This Weird Deck

People are brainstorming a ton right now, and none of what they’re discussing is at all kind. I don’t know how inclined everyone is to build such an antisocial deck and whether they’ll keep playing it for long, so let’s prepare to buy and sell into hype rather than hoping for long-term prospects.

As I said earlier, left to its own devices, Lavinia isn’t really an EDH card that much.

It’s a good point he’s making – a lot of the times, just Lavinia is like a tenth as effective as Gaddock Teeg. In order for Lavinia to be worth it, you’re going to need to really steer into building around her and you’re going to do some things that prevent other people from playing Magic. Add to that the fact that these sort of combos were already doable before Lavinia was printed, and I think the window on this stuff is pretty narrow, so let’s get in and get out. However, you never had a major combo piece in the command zone before and being able to play a combo piece without having to tutor for it, so that’s new. Also, the theorycrafting is all over reddit and twitter in a way it wasn’t before, so let’s look at what people would have to buy.

This is the most obvious card here and reddit is full of people saying “Well, just ordered a Well” which means someone made $0.35 on TCG Player (well, they made $2 because of the minimum, so that’s cool) but it will take quite a bit to move the needle on this. I think if a lot of people buy hard, people will have to pay a buck or two and the new price may stick. We’ve seen non-mythic rares from Mirrodin Besieged spike on less, but this is an expensive card that’s good in this one new deck and is also a horrible, antisocial card in similar combos in other decks and that made it $0.35, so bear all that in mind.

On a similar note, Omen Machine reduces their total playables to the cards that were in their hand when you cast Omen Machine. That can be a big problem for them but not for you, which is delightful. This is in the same boat as Knowledge Pool though maybe it’s 25% less obvious and that’s a problem for it since the supply is probably a little higher. These are both bulk rares and sometimes it takes more than the inkling of maybe making an EDH deck that people may or may not actually build to make it go anywhere, but I’m just giving you the information, you can decide what to do with it yourself.

Here is a card with a much better chance of doing something, in my opinion. It’s got a non-zero amount of play, is older and is just as dirty in the Lavinia deck because if they do play anything into the eye, they can’t play copies but you can. It’s not only a hoser, it makes all of your spells go crazy. It’s expensive, but your mana rocks work even if theirs don’t. I mean, their rocks work, but they can’t use them as ramp and if you start blowing their lands up, they won’t work anymore. You can add some cards like Null Rod or Stony Silence if you really want to hose them.  Is hosing them with Eye of the Storm not enough? There are lots more asymmetrical effects.

A real card with real other prospects about to get a bump from this dumb combo? Delightful! It’s down from its historic peak and could hit that amount again, this is honestly probably just a reminder to get Dream Halls because it’s on the Reserved List and isn’t coming off. You can cheat, they can’t cheat, it’s great. Keep Lavinia around and you can be the only one playing spells for cheap with Dream Halls, which could help you Enter the Infinite for the win while they can’t Force of Will, which happens sometimes in EDH. This is poised to do stuff and I think this is a good choice whether you’re looking at things to buy based on Lavinia or not.

It’s not just EDH

Other formats are getting in on the Lavinia fun, too, so why not at least look at what they’re saying?

The Spikes subreddit post was way less helpful than I had anticipated. It was mostly full of memes about how this hurts Tron, just like every card that comes out in every set that never really stops Tron.

Discouraged by not finding anything in the subreddit for serious players, I did my due diligence anyway and checked the general Magic sub, which is a lot like stumping your doctor with a health question and asking an actor who played a chiropractor in a commercial. Surprisingly, the tv bone crackers were onto something – a delightful synergy I missed.

Hey, if your Queller dies with Lavinia out, they don’t get their spell back. Fun. I am not sure which crazy hybrid of humans and spirits will run this doofy combo, but it’s a thing in EDH potentially but Modern-minded people cracked the code rather than EDH people and I read every dumb comment on that dumb thread in the EDH sub. It pays to read around – Magic players find combos in 6 minutes that playtesters couldn’t find in 6 months because of the sheer number of people all taking a whack at a problem.

They also found some synergy with other card I’m less impressed by.

Cute combo involving a very recent bulk rare? Meh. But if the deck is a deck, this is in that deck. I don’t think this can move the needle but I do think that it’s not worth keeping data from you. Make up your own mind.

Ultimately there will be some new archetypes based on new commanders, probably ones better than this card which seems optimized for 60 card formats. However, a non-zero number of people will at least buy a few cards intended to build this and we should be ready. They recorded it 4 months ago, but if someone played this on Game Knights, watch out. Based on Josh’s tweet, it probably wasn’t him, but you never know.

That’s all for me this week. I’ll write more when we know more. Until next time!

The Watchtower 12/17/18 for ProTraders – Plan Your Specs

By: Travis Allen
@wizardbumpin


Don’t miss this week’s installment of the MTG Fast Finance podcast, an on-topic, no-nonsense tour through the week’s most important changes in the Magic economy.


A week on and last week’s massive Pro Tour changes are still on the community’s collective lips. How will future qualifications work? What will the ability to get and stay on the train look like? At the same time, the Arena competitive queues have been announced to be best-of-1, which means no sideboarding. Many players, especially those familiar with high level play, are displeased. A great deal of skill comes from clever sideboarding.

On our side of things, it’s all about UMA right now. Supply is high, probably the highest it will ever be, so it’s time to start thinking about what we should be looking at.

Frantic Search (Foil)

Price Today: $1.50
Possible Price: $10

For the first time in a whopping 19 years, Frantic Search has been reprinted. Long a combo staple, and possibly the most busted of the “untap” cycle from Urza’s Legacy, it has many admirers. In 60-card formats it’s used to generate storm, churn through cards for a minimal price, and possibly even untap a land that produces more than one mana. In EDH (where you’ll find it in over 10,000 decks), it’s primarily used for the latter; untapping a Gaea’s Cradle and Cabal Coffers is just about the dumbest ritual you’ll find in Magic.

At this point in Magic’s timeline I’d wager that it’s the use in EDH that most demand comes from. Untapping lands is powerful, and digging for a specific type of card at any given time is always useful. That isn’t to say it doesn’t have purpose elsewhere though, of course. While it’s banned in Legacy and Pauper, it’s useful in Vintage, cube, and perhaps moreso than both, kitchen table. I certainly recall finding allure in the spell back when we only played in our college apartment, and I’m sure I wasn’t the only one. That type of demand doesn’t tend to push on foils much, but anything helps.

Perhaps most appealing here is that pack foils are $25 to $30, and the current UMA foils are a whole $1.50. I’m certainly not expecting a recently printed uncommon to hit the same price point as a 19-year-old original foil, there’s certainly room for growth. Supply is on the high side, but remember, we’re in the deepest it’s going to get.

Dark Depths (Box Topper)

Price Today: $125
Possible Price: $200

Now that we have the small ball out of the way, let’s talk about something with some heft.

Dark Depths is a cool card. We can all accept that. “Unfathomably large creature hidden in the mists” is just cool. It’s also popular. While not legal in Modern, it’s a core component of at least two Legacy strategies, shows up in Vintage, cube, and over 3,500 EDH decks. It’s also typically a four-of when played, since if you’re going through the effort of pulling it off, you need to make sure it’s happening.

There are several foil copies of Dark Depths with the release of UMA. We’ve got the pack foils, currently clocking in at around $260. We’ve got the FTV Lore copies, which cost a whopping $20, which everyone hates because the foiling on those sucks and they feel bad. Now we’ve got the two UMA copies too; the pack foil and the box topper. UMA packs will run you $55 or so. That’s not bad for a foil Dark Depths, but let’s be real, it’s just not as cool as the box topper. The box toppers have the same great new art, but borderless, it really explodes off the card. Realistically they’re going to be the most popular, and anyone that takes their Dark Depths seriously, which is exactly the type of person to make use of this card, is going to be looking to pick them up.

$120 is no small buy-in, but given the relative scarcity and overall distribution process, I’m expecting these to behave something like Inventions. Supply is relatively full right now, with seemingly high prices, but a few months from now it may be a bit shocking to see how many fewer there are and how much more they cost. I’d be surprised if Dark Depths doesn’t cruise upwards of $180, $190, or $200, and possibly more. It could be slow with the holidays just a week away, but come February things may start changing.


Demonic Tutor (Foil)

Price Today: $160
Possible Price: $250

Wizards has been surprisingly reluctant to roll out Demonic Tutor. Not counting the early Revised-era pritings (FBB, IE, CE, etc.), they put it in a very early Duel Deck. Then the reprint of that Duel Deck in the anthology series. And…that’s it. For a spell as popular as it is, you’d expect them to make it much more available. They haven’t, though. The release in UMA is the first “new” printing of it since 2009.

With the UMA release, we were also given the box topper. This is a big get. Up until now, the options for Demonic Tutor have been uninspiring. You can have the judge promo, which is dark and not particularly intriguing, for $260. Or the Beta version for well over $500. That’s really it. There’s a reason most copies you see cast are “Revised copy from a shoebox” quality.

UMA adds some much needed depth to the pool of options. Not only do you have the UMA pack foils at an approachable $60, you’ve got the topper at a current price of $160. Now, don’t get me wrong, that’s a steep buy-in. It’s going to be tough for most people to make a move that big. But it’s absolutely the coolest version of this card aside from possibly Beta, which is going to run you at least three times as much for anything that’s sleeve playable. If you want a cool Demonic Tutor, and don’t want to spend over $500, this is your best bet.

For arguably the second-most popular card in EDH, that Wizards has been absurdly stingy with reprinting, in the coolest version that has existed since 1993, $160 is probably going to look like  a good price in three to nine months. Seeing this climb to the current judge levels, or even higher, is certainly possible.


Travis Allen has  been playing Magic: The Gathering since 1994, mostly in upstate New York. Ever since his first FNM he’s been trying to make playing Magic cheaper, and he first brought his perspective to MTGPrice in 2012. You can find his articles there weekly, as well as on the podcast MTG Fast Finance.


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