The Watchtower 7/23/18 for ProTraders – Plan Your Specs

By: Travis Allen
@wizardbumpin


Don’t miss this week’s installment of the MTG Fast Finance podcast, an on-topic, no-nonsense tour through the week’s most important changes in the Magic economy.


There are not many weeks that are as exciting for the Magic market as Commander preview week. Standard preview weeks are fun and exciting of course, but they don’t move too many needles outside of that format, and it’s not a particularly profitable format at that. Commander previews though? Hoo boy. Here’s an example: Varchild, Betrayer of Kjeldor. She’s got the odd ability to create tokens under your opponent’s control, and then even odder ability to take them all when she leaves play. (Most odd of all is that they’re 1/1 survivor tokens. Probably not finding those in that new minifig run Hasbro is putting out.) A card like Varchild is going to draw attention to all sorts of cards that otherwise have gone unnoticed.

A lot of cards are going to get bought up this week. If you’re quick on the draw and have a good read on what people will find popular, you can clean up over the next few days. Even if you aren’t paying attention, some of the stuff in your bulk box may suddenly be worth pulling out.

Temporal Mastery (Foil)

Price Today: $17
Possible Price: $35

I said last week that the Esper ‘top of library’ deck was the most curious, and with the reveal of all four commanders, I still think that, although in a slightly different way. Each of the other three — Jund’s Lord Windgrace, Bant’s Estrid, the Masked, and Izzet’s Saheeli, the Gifted track closely to their ascribed theme. It’s not to say that they won’t be popular, but rather, looking at them, we can see what the deck inside is (mostly) doing. It’s fairly spelled out. Aminatou, however, is still somewhat of a mystery.

We can read the text on the card, and see what she does, but extrapolating that through the rest of the deck falls flat. Her +1 allows you to swap the top card of your library with one in your hand, which of course is what’s behind me talking about Temporal Mastery here. Following that is a generic blink effect, which on its surface, doesn’t do much with the top of your library. What’s going on there? (Aside from being an infinite combo with Felidar Guardian, and an easy turn-four win if you toss Altar of the Brood in there.) Finally her ultimate is one of the most curious in the game’s history, which picks has every player pick up all their nonland permanents and pass them one seat to the left or right. What? (Also: Teferi’s Protection lol). Reading through Aminatou, it’s still tough to understand what’s happening in the 99.

Anyways, Temporal Mastery. There’s no more obvious auto-include if you’ve got Aminatou as your general. Putting cards from your hand on top of your library is the entire reason to play miracles in your deck. I would have picked some others too, but you’ll notice that basically every rare or mythic miracle has been reprinted enough to make sure there’s no real slam dunks in there. Devastation Tide foils are the closest, but eh.

Temporal Mastery though — about $17 or $18 for Modern Masters 2017 foils right now, and not many out there. It’s an already reasonably popular card that sees action in a variety of places, and now we’re getting a commander that demands you use this card. Supply should dry up fairly soon.


Eldrazi Conscription

Price Today: $12
Possible Price: $20

Bant’s commander is Estrid, the Masked, and as promised, she’s all about enchantments. Truth be told, Estrid doesn’t do much Eldrazi Conscription on the face. Sure you can untap whatever creature it’s on, but like, whatever. Conscription itself doesn’t make untapping the creature particularly thrilling in the way that something like Burning Anger would. (Which you can’t play in this deck.) Her minus ability doesn’t do a lot with this either. And really, even her ultimate only interacts with it inasmuch as it does for all other enchantments.

Still, that’s all beside the point. Here’s what matters. There’s a new commander that wants you to play with enchantments, and as far as auras go, Eldrazi Conscription is as big and bad as it gets. (Bonus mid-paragraph pick: foil Sovereigns of Lost Alara.) Your dude is huge, you get annihilator triggers, they trample, it’s the whole package. The only thing that’s going to be annoying is that there’s rarely going to be a creature on the battlefield that’s more of a target than the one that’s been Conscripted.

And that’s where the Estrid, and the deck’s theme comes in. There’s going to be plenty of support in this deck for returning enchantments from the graveyard, cheating them into play, and in general getting as much use out of them as you can. Just like graveyard reanimation means you see the best creature at the table over and over again, a deck built around enchantments is going to mean you see the best enchantment over and over again. Thus, your support for Eldrazi Conscription.

Someone bought a foil copy from me recently which is what got me thinking about this card. It’s a little tough to tell you to buy in at $25, which is where the foils are, mostly because even if they hit $50 or $60, they’ll move slowly. (Still, probably not terrible.) I like the non-foils more, since everyone that plays this deck will want a copy, and even if they only go from $12 to $20, that’s still a healthy move, and you’ll sell a lot more non-foils than foils. All of this with the caveat that it doesn’t show up in the Estrid deck of course, which may certainly come to pass.


Splendid Reclamation (Foil)

Price Today: $4
Possible Price: $10

Over on the Jund side of things, Lord Windgrace dumps lands into your graveyard in exchange for drawing more cards. A couple of +2s and suddenly you’ve got an entire extra mana base in the yard and you’re almost at ultimate. Fire off a Splendid Reclamation and you’re getting a huge boost in mana production at the low cost of having drawn a bunch of spare cards.

We don’t have to work hard to figure out that Reclamation is good; it’s in over 6,000 decks on EDHREC at the moment. It’s one of the most popular cards in The Gitrog Monster, a commander with a similar engine. You’ll find it in various other places too, although it’s certainly at its best in the frog horror deck.

Eldritch Moon product was sparser than some of the other sets that year, in part based on when it was released, popularity of Standard at that time, etc. Other cards from the set, e.g. Collective Brutality, have done quite well. As far as sets go, it’s more fertile ground than most other recent releases for valuable cards.

With Lord Windgrace coming in a month or so and a new batch of players on the Jund land lifestyle, there will be another pile of players looking to pick up Reclamations. Foils at $4 are going to dry up with no new line of supply, and we should see them land comfortably around $10 sometime later this year.


Travis Allen has  been playing Magic: The Gathering since 1994, mostly in upstate New York. Ever since his first FNM he’s been trying to make playing Magic cheaper, and he first brought his perspective to MTGPrice in 2012. You can find his articles there weekly, as well as on the podcast MTG Fast Finance.



[/hide]

Brainstorm Brewery #299 Wood Chipper Challenge

 

Jason (@jasonEalt), DJ (@Rose0fThorns), and Corbin (@Chosler88) prepare their minds and bodies for the oncoming one chip challenge. They also talk about some magic cards and stuff like Commander 2018, Battle Bond misses, Master 25 pickups and the future potential rise of maverick in legacy.

Design a new theme for part of the cast http://bit.ly/FTVemails

Brainstorm Brewery is proudly sponsored by Squatty Potty. Let the number #1 MtG Finance podcast help you go #2. Visit www.squattypotty.com/BSB to get yours today!

Make sure to check us out on Youtube for hidden easter eggs and facial reactions  https://www.youtube.com/user/BrainstormBrewery

  • Send us your clips!

  • Nap time with Corbin

  • Michigan isn’t Michigan

  • Chip Hype

  • Battle Bummer

  • Death and Taxes

  • Breaking Bulk

  • Commander 2018

  • Emails

  • Pick of the Week

  • Send us your emails!

  • Support our Patreon!

  • Need to contact us? Hit up BrainstormBrew@gmail.com

 

Dominaria at max supply

The Core Set is in our hands, and so far it’s playing out like a Core Set should, not heavy on synergies and such but still relatively fun, at least in the beginning.

With the focus shifting away from Dominaria, it’s time to look at this awesome set and figure out what we are picking up now that supply is at its maximum. We might get a little more coming in, if people get burned out on drafting M19, but that wouldn’t be enough to move the needle.

I’m trying to keep the focus on non-Standard uses for cards, as the timeline for Standard spikes is kind of rough–you have to hit it big and get rid of it pretty fast.

To the cards!

 

Gilded Lotus ($3 regular/$9 foil): For the sake of comparisons, here’s the other prices of this card:

Set Regular Foil
Magic 2013 $6.50 $16
FTV: Twenty n/a $13
Mirrodin $9 $40

See a disconnect? I’ll give you that Dominaria was opened more than the other sets combined. I’ll also be happy to give Mirrodin the premium of being the first printing, or that FTV foils are ugly as sin.

My counterpoint is that the card is the #20 artifact on EDHREC, and is in nearly forty thousand listed decks. That doesn’t even cover the sheer number of people who put this into their casual decks, either.

Put it all together and you have a card that is underpriced in foil and nonfoil, and while I think foils are the safer bet, I wouldn’t take issue with you buying a stack of nonfoils and just being patient.

Weatherlight ($1.50/$8): With a foil multiplier that large, it’s a sign that people are buying up foils faster than they are the nonfoils. And why not, since it’s a mythic? I think what’s going on here is that people are using casual decks to tell the story of the Weatherlight (don’t ask me who the Commander is. Jodah? Has to be five-color.) and this is a necessary piece. The card is not very powerful, which is why it’s cheap, but a foil multiplier of six (as opposed to the 2-3x I’m expecting) means the demand is real.

The Antiquities War (75¢/$5): This is popping up in some artifact-based builds in Standard that are only good until rotation, but again, look at the foil multiplier here. People are snapping this up in foil a lot faster than the nonfoil.

Frankly, this is true for most of the Sagas, with Song of Freyalise almost the biggest at about 7x, and the rest at about 5x, with the exception of Standard-popular History of Benalia at only 2x.

Special mention: Foils of The Eldest Reborn have a multiplier of about THIRTY-SIX. Nonfoils are a quarter, foils go for $9. I don’t know how much growth is possible on that particular one, but the card is mega-sweet in Commander, and the art is ridiculous. So much so that I bought a huge print for my classroom!

More EDH decks than Mox Amber!

The data tell us to buy foil Sagas now. I’d stay away from History for now, but dive into the others gladly. They are niche, sure, but remember that niche decks can be among the most fun to build. There’s long-term money to be made here. Foil Sagas seem super-safe, as they are unlikely to be added to a Masters set soon.

Oath of Teferi (50¢/$4): Buy all the foils you can at this price. I’m not even kidding–this is a lock because it’s arguably better than The Chain Veil. It’s not a mythic, true, and the Veil is from a while ago, but this card is probably the one that the superfriends decks want most in the opener. You can even get this in the four for $10 range, and that’s just a gift to your future self. Doesn’t that delightful person deserve the gift of some $15 foils? Buy now, put away, and thank me later.

Karn’s Temporal Sundering (50¢/$5): The Legendary Sorceries are mostly unappealing, given their constraints, but extra turns cards are something that players are always going to want, especially because new ones tend to exile themselves. Picking up relatively cheap foils now is a winner, because this has a bright future.

Mox Amber ($10/$40): Six weeks ago, I said that I’d be in at $10/$30, and we are here. I am a fan of this at $10. I would like the foils to be a little more reasonably priced, but it turns out that a surprising number of people like playing this in Commander. I’m not among them, but I respect the effect that it’s having. You’re unlikely to have this hit in Standard, but Modern is eventually going to break this card.

It’s a unique ability, and thankfully decks will want four.

Lyra Dawnbringer ($13/$30): For a card that started out ridiculously strong and who tops an impressive tribal curve (Resplendent-Shalai-Lyra), she’s fallen quite a distance. There’s some risks here: She might never be good in Standard again, and the other Constructed formats are not homes for her. She might be in a Challenger deck in the spring. She’s only got a year till she rotates.

There is a world in which she spikes to $30 or $40 again, but it’s more likely that she stays in the $15 range and you never make any money. The worst feeling is buying at $15, seeing her bump to $20 and knowing that you’ll have a really hard time making that $5 a copy back. I would stay away from Lyra, even seeing what she’s fallen to.

 

 

Cliff has been writing for MTGPrice for five years now, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. He’s the official substitute teacher of MTG Fast Finance, and if you’re going to be at GP Sacramento, look for the guy under the giant flashing ‘Cube Draft’ sign and he’ll have you drafting in no time!

Unlocked Pro Trader: Kitty Cats 2018

Hey guys. It’s National emoji day and if I knew how to make emojis I’d do a bunch of them right here. If I knew how to make the gray boxes that made it look like I tried to do a bunch of emojis and failed, I would do that, too. I sort of wish I knew how to do the kittycat emoki, though, because as soon as they announced the four themes for Commander 2018 decks, the internet found its kittycats for the year 2018, and that kittycat’s name is “Enchantress.”

What’s A “Good” Spike?

I think there are two major classifications of spikes – let’s call them simply “good” and “bad” so you know how you’re supposed to feel about them. A “bad” spike is one that feels forced – it’s a bunch of dudes on Reddit all getting together to buy Catacomb Dragon because it’s on the Reserved List. The justification for it is always ex post facto as if they thought about how to make the case for it after they bought it. You’ll notice them calling it an “EDH staple” and if you mention EDHREC, there’s always an excuse; EDHREC doesn’t get competitive EDH data, no one uses the site anymore (what does that even mean?), it’s good in their deck so that means it’s a staple. If the person making the case for the card seems allergic to data and has two anecdotes for every data point you come up with, stay away. “Forced” or “bad” spikes have a familiar graph shape.

A precipitous climb followed by a meteoric descent. Usually the price ends up somewhere between where it started and where it peaked, but lately these dumb spikes haven’t panned out very well and the card goes back down to where it started – usually because the people behind the buyouts are used to being able to buy out TCG Player and letting everyone else think they’re geniuses for buying out Cardshark.

So what characterizes a “good” spike? I think that a good one has two major components.

This Heading Break Is Where I’m Blocking Off The Rest Of The Article So Only Pro Traders Can Read It At First

I think the two characteristics of any good spike are sustainability and predictability. A good spike looks less like a spike and more like a plateau because the new price is agreed upon as the right price. This comes from organic demand. The card actually is an  EDH staple, spiking as the result of a new deck being viable and not the result of dickery and wishful thinking.

Notice how even though the price went down a bit, it went back up over time and the overall trend is in an upward direction? Do you think  Reparations will trend in a similar manner? Hard to say – Reserved List cards have nothing pushing their price down per se besides a race to the bottom as dealers who sell by being the lowest available price leapfrog each other trying to be the first to sell their copies of a useless card off. You didn’t have to dump your copies of The Chain Veil as soon as they spiked – you had time to try and get the best price and the card is now worth more than its initial spike price. In fact, current buylist is nearly at that amount. The sustainability of The Chain Veil is what makes it a “good” spike – Superfriends, Atraxa, the combo with Teferi and speculation that Commander 2018 will be Planeswalker-helmed decks because of one mention of the word “Planeswalker” in the Commander 2018 press release have all driven this card to where it is. Imagine that, a card that’s not even on the Reserved List going up in price! I didn’t even know we did those anymore.

The second aspect is predictability. Could we have possibly predicted that The Chain Veil would go up in price? Of course we could have – and we did.  We have mentioned that card several times over the past 4 years and every time it was more expensive than the last time we mentioned it. It was a solid albeit a niche card when it was printed but the Teferi combo and the prevalence of Atrxa Superfriends decks created the perfect environment for it to go up. Superfriends existing as a concept was enough for me to mention it was a spec and all we have to do was wait for conditions to exist for it to be indispensible in a deck everyone wanted. Atraxa gave us that. if it hadn’t been for Atraxa, The Chain Veil would be worth less than it is now but it still would be worth more than it was every time we talked about it in this column, and that’s the important thing. That’s a card that is both sustainable given its demand from a number of different decks as well as predictable given its unique and powerful effect. I like “good” spike candidates because there is no sense of urgency to dump them before people realize they shouldn’t be paying $9 for freaking Aelopile, no matter whether or not “no one is sitting on a stack of these, guise.”

We Saw The “Bad” Spikes

Commander 2018 is giving us another chance to shake our heads at Team Kittycat. Not all of their buys are as bad as Waiting in the Weeds but they are as obvious. I don’t think Serra’s Sanctum is going to go back down from over $100, for example but that’s because it’s a Reserved List card, had some Legacy and EDH demand before (I called it at $30 when the Daxos deck was printed and that didn’t do much for its price although a few people made some money). Idyllic Tutor, though, seems like a bit of a Kittycat to me. It’s in quite a few decks on EDHREC, mostly Voltron decks, but its recent interest seems as much predicated on its text box containing the word “Enchantment” than on an understanding of the format. Remember, Waiting in the Weeds was a stupid buy because it was bought out before we even knew what the decks would be like and it turns out none of the 3 commanders really benefit all that much from having a bunch of cat tokens. I’m not saying an Enchantress deck won’t benefit from a tutor, it will, I’m saying anything else we buy at this juncture is purely speculative, may look stupid later and isn’t quite the slam dunk we think it is. I mean, unless you think one of the 3 commanders in C18 is going to be “sacrifice your enchantments” themed, Femeref Enchantress is probably a bad pickup or a kittycat if you will. An “obvious” spec that doesn’t actually work with the deck is a kittycat and I think we’re about to see some more kittycats go up.

What Do We Like Instead?

I’m glad I pretended you asked.  I think there are some cards that haven’t gone up yet that could based on Commander 2018. We know it’s Bant Enchantress, so my approach for researching this was look at pages of cards rather than pages of commanders. I don’t know how much you use EDHREC, so I’m going to hold your hand a bit here if that’s OK. Since I already have Idyllic Tutor pulled up from checking how many decks it’s in, this is as good a place as any to start.

Here’s the page I’m on.

Its starts by giving us a list of Commanders and you can tell quite a bit about what kind of card Idyllic Tutor can be in EDH. Oloro decks use it, Uril decks use it and Zedruu decks use it. What are the odds Oloro decks are searching for Bear Umbra, Zedruu decks are searching for Phyrexian Arena or Uril decks are searching for Transcendence? The card is used for three different kinds of cards in those decks. Since we don’t know what any of the commanders do, it’s hard to know how we’ll use Idyllic Tutor but we can get a sense of what kinds of enchantments might be good with other Enchantments. This is where we weigh reprint risk versus power and make our decisions based on that.

Scroll down more, past the top Commanders, New Cards and Reprinted Cards. “Signature Cards” is what we want. Not all of them pair with Idyllic Tutor well (Path to Exile? What?) but they are correlated in that a deck with Idyllic Tutor is very, very likely to run them also (like Path to Exile). Idyllic Tutor has the highest synergy with Idyllic Tutor, appearing in 100% of decks that contain Idyllic Tutor (lol, I’m sure the way to fix this is so hard it’s not worth it and will break every time they invent a new kind of commander like the “pair with” ones from Battlebond which broke the site’s code for a long time) but we see Enlightened Tutor which probably won’t get reprinted and goes in the same decks. I bet Replenish isn’t reprinted and since it’s on the Reserved List it already went up – same as Academy Rector. Team obvious has already been through the list, starting as soon as they got the word about the archetypes. Sterling Grove, though, isn’t on the RL.

Sterling Grove

Reprint risk – Moderate

Power – High

Grove originally went up from a buck or two when it was announced that Theros would be enchantment-based. Grove didn’t really pan out as that good a pairing with… anything from Theros per se. It was vaguely good but Theros mostly made a lot of cards vaguely better rather than making one or two super good.

Grove is very useful in my current Bant Enchantress deck but I am trying to use data to make my evaluations rather than use anecdotes about my specific build. If this isn’t reprinted, it has a bunch of decks where it will be good. Whether you’re Voltron, Pillow fort or some weird hybrid (my deck uses Control Magic effects and the Enchantress triggers are to keep your hand full of answers), you’ll benefit from Grove and it hasn’t really moved much on the news but rather how good it is.

Scroll down to the “Enchantments” section to see the Enchantments that are used most often in decks with Idyllic Tutor.

Starfield of Nyx

Reprint risk – Moderate

Power level – High

This is another card that just shines in the deck. It’s a win condition, it nullifies some of their targeted removal (they have to deal with Greater Auramancy or Privileged Position before they can kill this and you just bring it back). I don’t know what else to say.  If this isn’t in the deck, I bet it goes up.

Copy Enchantment

Reprint Risk – Low

Power Level – High

They don’t tend to put this sort of card in the precons which could mean it’s mostly insulated from reprint risk on the basis of me not seeing them reprint cards like Sculpting Steel in the artifact deck, for example. Mirage Mirror seems more likely to be reprinted, for example. This is a narrow card and if it’s not in Commander 2018, it basically never gets reprinted. If you do buy these and it’s in the precon, just double down and buy as many copies as you can at the new price until your average cost is down to a non-embarrassing amount and then every copy will go back up. This has great growth numbers and it’s not like a Bant Enchantress deck running around will hurt that. I still think you are safe and I think even though an $8+ buy-in is high, I think the ceiling is pretty high, too. I still get these in bulk, also, so that’s a thing – people don’t know this is a card so its growth has been sneaky and secret and if that doesn’t reflect sustainability, I don’t know what does.

There are a few more pieces of higher-hanging fruit that Team Kittycat missed but I think my time next week will be better spent looking at one of the other 3 archetypes. Spoilers start Monday and that will give us a better idea of what we’re looking at. Until next time!

MAGIC: THE GATHERING FINANCE ARTICLES AND COMMUNITY