18 for ProTraders – Plan Your Specs

May 29, 2018 Travis Allen 2 Comments

Don’t miss this week’s installment of the MTG Fast Finance podcast, an on-topic, no-nonsense tour through the week’s most important changes in the Magic economy.

I don’t know about you guys, but I was glad to have a long weekend away from Magic. Putting everything aside for several days to sit out on a lake and never think about anything important is necessary occasionally. What’s less necessary is eating the entire 96 hours that you’re gone and making yourself sick constantly with all the garbage. That’s the real Magic finance, right there. Not making yourself sick on Memorial Day with brownies.

Ob Nixilis, Unshackled (Foil)

Price Today: $9
Possible Price: $15

Game Knights, the Commander focused video series put out by Josh Lee Kwai and Jimmy Wong, has become fairly popular, to the point that they’re able to influence card prices with the content produced (unintentionally, of course). Most recently an Atheros deck utilizing Shadowborn Apostle appeared on an episode, and now suddenly Athreos is one of the most-built decks on EDHREC this week. Let me know the next time you’re going to do this, Josh.

Browsing Athreos, Ob Nixlis (the Unshackled one) jumped out at me. Ob Nix is deliciously obnoxious in EDH, chunking players for a whopping ten damage every time they search. Opponents that aren’t dumb as bricks typically aren’t going to be losing much life to this, since they’re not going to be casting Rampant Growth if it costs two mana and ten life, but you do get to basically Mindlock Orb the table. Such an effect will vary between annoying and debilitating, depending on what strategy your opponents are employing.

Ol’ Shakleless came around in Magic 2015, and not since, which makes him about four years old now. That was before every card could show up as a prerelease promo, which means the only foil copies were pack foils. That foil supply has dried up fierce, and the few copies that are left will run you about $8 to $9. Once those last few copies get snapped up, we should see foils land comfortably in the $15 to $20 range.

Kambal, Consul of Allocation (Foil)

Price Today: $4
Possible Price: $15

Another nugget on the Athreos page is Kambal, Consul of Allocation. Kambal is especially juicy because he’s flying under the radar in two formats, not just one.

Obviously he’s useful in EDH; that’s how we found him. He clocks in at just a scoch under 5,000 EDH decks, which is a respectable volume, if not overwhelming. Needling players the table round for only three mana is something that all those Rhystic Study players will enjoy thoroughly when their deck doesn’t have access to blue. As long as players in EDH cast noncreature spells there will be room for Kambal in the format, so uh, he’s not going anywhere.

Meanwhile, Kambal has been doing work in Modern too. You’ll find him in sideboards in Humans, Mardu Pyromancer, Eldrazi Aggro, and various other brews. He’s something of a Eidolon of Great Revel, except not in red. For a deck that’s trying to get low to the ground and then make it difficult for opponents to get back in the game, Kambal is an excellent angle of attack. At worst he’s a three mana flag bearer that also drains your opponent for two, and that’s if the very first spell they cast is removal targeted at Kambal. Any other spell they cast first is gravy.

You’ll find a couple more copies than Ob Nixilis on the market, but we’re not talking about hundreds. There’s twenty or thirty floating around on TCG right now, which isn’t red alert levels of supply. It’s like, orange alert? It’s blackwatch plaid alert. It’s “people are going to keep picking these up for Modern and in a few months they’ll be over $10” alert.

Hostage Taker

Price Today: $2
Possible Price: $12

As we enter June (the month), we find ourselves hitting the nadir of Magic prices. Summer is always a slog for basically every price index in the game. People simply don’t think about or play as much Magic when it’s nice out. Friday nights people want to be grilling, at the beach, at the park, and generally somewhere other than humid, never-air-conditioned card stores. I’ve memories of sticking to tables trying to play in July and August and it was miserable.

Point being that cards that will hold double digit prices in the fall can be quite cheap right now, as everyone ignores them and goes off and does other things. Speaking of which, remember when Hostage Taker was $15 and one of the best cards in Standard? That may come to be true again! We don’t know yet. Hour of Devastation gods will be absent, of course, so exiling Scarab God won’t be as crucial, but that doesn’t mean she won’t have plenty of targets. Depending on what Ravnica brings us, the exile ability may be especially useful once more.

Prices on Hostage taker have cratered, thanks in part to a shifting metagame and the time of the year. Come this fall, if things break a specific way — that’s an if, by the way, not a when — prices could skyrocket north of $10. Keep an eye on Hostage Taker and any Ravnica leaks; Hostage Taker may once again have her time in the sun.

Travis Allen has been playing Magic: The Gathering since 1994, mostly in upstate New York. Ever since his first FNM he’s been trying to make playing Magic cheaper, and he first brought his perspective to MTGPrice in 2012. You can find his articles there weekly, as well as on the podcast MTG Fast Finance.

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Casual Fridays

The Floor on Masters 25

May 25, 2018 Cliff Daigle

I know we are all going crazy with excitement for Battlebond, whose full card list I believe drops this morning, but our most recent special set is much more on my mind.

You’re thinking that the packs are super-overpriced at $10 and you’re right, but there’s a deeper idea: We are so done opening Masters 25 that it’s time to assess what the bottom of the market is.

We don’t have a lot of hard data, but we have some strong anecdotal data. Boxes are still available for a close-to-distributor-cost of $150 shipped on eBay, off of an MSRP of $240. Currently, 13 of the 68 rares and mythics have a retail value of $10 or more, making the packs a terrible gamble. If you buy at the eBay price, you’re at $6 a pack, but that’s still only 18/68 which make your money back per pack. I don’t like those odds at all, a 26% chance. Yuck.

A much safer alternative is to look at where prices used to be and where they have gotten to, then figure out if that’s someplace to park value until it goes up. So let’s get to the cards!

One caveat, though. All of these are reprints and are not safe from showing up in a Commander deck or some other special set. If they get hit again, you’re going to have to be patient till it comes back, and that might take a long time indeed.

Thalia, Guardian of Thraben nonfoil ($11, was $21 at peak)

In a lot of ways Thalia is the poster child for what a special release reprint wants to do. She’s very commonly played, across Cube, Modern, and Legacy, and had only been a WMCQ promo since her original printing in 2012. Her stock had been super-high, but it’s dropped by half and I think now is the time to get in.

Her pedigree is above reproach, and the only question is how many copies of her are out there. She’s a three-or-four-of in Modern Humans, a deck that might not be Tier 1 by all definitions but it’s very popular to play and that’s good enough for me. I’m not terribly interested in the foils at around $20-$25, because there’s original foils and the super-awesome close-up version from the WMCQ.

This was exactly the printing she needed to make her price reasonable, and picking her up now in the $10 range means that in a year to 18 months, I’ll be looking to get out in the $20 range.

Eidolon of the Great Revel foil ($17, was $40 once)

Now this one carries a bit more risk, but hear me out. Eidolon’s surge in price, especially in foil, was 100% due to the combination of the 4-of inclusion in every flavor of Burn deck but also that Journey into Nyx was not opened in very large amounts, even by the standards of back then. Eidolon’s price has been trending downwards too, but the conditions are there for this to bounce back. It’s not in Legacy much but it’s a four-of in the deck that just won’t go away. I don’t think it’s going to ever spike, but I do think it’s worth getting at this price and waiting patiently. There isn’t going to be another foil printing for some time, and when Burn gets good again, you’ll be ready to sell for $35+.

Cascade Bluffs nonfoil ($7, was $30 once)

Quite frankly, I’m a fan of all of the filterlands. They are high on the list for the cards I want to have most in Commander games, because one land enables intensive mana costs. Rugged Prairie is besties with both Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker and True Conviction.

With all of the filters below $10, except Twilight Mire at $11 or so, now’s the time to buy the ones you need for your Commander decks and a few extras for the spec box/your future decks. The value is going to grow slowly on this, and they will likely reprint this in another five years, but there we are.

Foils are not a target for me, as the original foils are high in value and there’s also Expeditions to go chasing after.

Rest in Peace nonfoil ($5, was $9)

I’ve written about RIP before as a fantastic Commander card and one of the best sideboard options in Modern. Yes, it turns off your own graveyard shenanigans, but it hoses some very popular decks and strategies. It’s unconditional, cheap to cast, and has effects that are both immediate and long-term.

Yeah, you could have gotten this at under $2. Those days are gone though.

The foils have about a $10 gap between original Return to Ravnica and the Masters 25 version, and while I expect that gap to close, I think there’s more to be gained by going in on these at sub-$5 and then just waiting. It made $10 once before, and it’ll get back there thanks to Modern.

Eladamri’s Call ($3, was $11)

A reprint we haven’t seen since Planeshift, this card took a bath and while there’s a lot of inventory now…that won’t be the case forever. It’s already in 7500 Commander decks on EDHREC and it’s as good as you want it to be. An instant, puts into the hand instead of on top of the library as Worldly Tutor does, but it is two colors.

This sees enough play that I like getting in cheap. I don’t want to chase the foils here, as someone who wants foils is probably going to go drooling over the original border foil, and that’s as it should be.

Mikokoro, Center of the Sea ($3, was $14, A25 foils are $10)

Here’s another card that had a high price only due to the low stock. Saviors of Kamigawa was forever ago, and while this is only in 4500 Commaner decks it’s also a fun-of in the assorted flavors of Taking Turns decks in Modern. There’s a big gap on these, between the Masters 25 version and the originals, likely just due to price memory. No one who bought foils for $20 is going to sell them cheaper, they are going to wait. Same thing for the nonfoils, but a gap this bi9g won’t last forever. The card is underpriced, and you should buy a couple.

Bonus BattleBond Information: The coin-flipping cards are spiking as people realize that some people really, really, REALLY love flipping coins and now we have a legendary set of Partners who love flipping coins. One that hasn’t moved–yet–is Goblin Bomb, which is also on the reserved list. I haven’t bought any–I have a playset left over from when I had an actual coin-flipping deck in 1999–but there’s 45 copies on TCG as of Thursday night and they aren’t going to last long below $5, and I’d expect a spike to at least $10 is not $20, which is what you sell into because the Bomb only deals 20 damage. Quaint, no?

Cliff has been writing for MTGPrice for nearly five years now, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. He’s the official substitute teacher of MTG Fast Finance, and if you’re going to be at GP Vegas, look for the guy under the giant flashing ‘Cube Draft’ sign and he’ll have you drafting in no time!

Jason Alt, Unlocked ProTrader

Unlocked Pro Trader: Battle Boned

May 22, 2018 Jason Alt 4 Comments

Readers,

I have some good news for buyers and bad news for sellers regarding Battlebond. Some of the cards are about to tumble pretty hard in value. A lot of them will recover but the cards whose high price is more predicated on scarcity and not playability are going to lose some value. With a small portion of the set spoiled, I’m going to go through a few cards and try to put them into different classifications to help you evaluate what to do with cards as they’re spoiled, help you figure out what to buylist immediately so you don’t take a bath (though it’s probably too late for some stuff) and help you figure out what recovers and therefore you can probably hold. We can also look at good times to buy into reprinted cards to catch the full benefit of that U-shaped graph.

Battlebond looks nuts so far with a ton of cards that are not only good in Battlebond but, unlike Conspiracy’s draft-specific cards that are useless outside of a few lunatics’ cubes, they’re useful in EDH which means packs of Battlebond won’t be hot garbage the way packs of Conspiracy are. We’re not likely to see cards on the level of Expropriate and Leovold but I expect a lot of value to be in the set and more spread out. Let’s take a look at the classes of reprints.

Class 1 – Stifle

Stifle was riding high at $40. It was a staple in Legacy decks like Canadian Threshold which became a deck again with the printing of Delver of Secrets and people used it to stop everything from fetches cracking to Stoneforges fetching to a third thing in Legacy and since it’s from Scourge, it’s plenty old and there aren’t a ton of copies. With Eternal popular all around the globe, surely there was enough demand for Stifle to justify the $40 price tag and help the card recover after a reprinting in Conspiracy, a set basically no one bought.

Look at that graph. Not only did Stifle tank from $40 to like $5, it’s basically not recovering. It’s been almost 4 years to the day since Conspiracy 1 and Stifle has taken a permanent dirt nap. Class 1 cards are predicated on low supply but there isn’t enough demand outside of the kind of Eternal formats that aren’t really adding new players to justify the price going back up. EDH and Modern are growing, Legacy and Vintage are shrinking and that means that not all reprints are created equal.

Class 2 – Mirari’s Wake

I zoomed in to show the price right before Conspiracy’s reprinting and right before Commander 2017’s printing. Mirari’s Wake did a very good job recovering from the Conspiracy printing, which I think will be analogous to the Battlebond printing we’re about to see. Wake is EDH-playable and it needed another reprinting in Commander 2017 to get the price back down to post-Conspiracy levels and even with that, it’s starting to recover a little.

Class 2 cards are much healthier, and identifying which class a Battlebond card is will help us figure out what to trade out of and what to pick up and help keep us from flushing our money down the terlet by picking up a bunch of Stifles. Let’s look at what’s been reprinted so far. Next week when we have the full spoiler, I’ll do this again with the rest of the reprints.

Class 1.5 – Altar of Dementia

I’m calling this class 1.5 rather than class 3 because I want to make it clear that this will end up doing something between classes 1 and 2. It won’t sit there flat like Stifle did because all of its price was predicated on scarcity and a shrinking format like Legacy and it won’t recover super quickly because it’s an EDH staple and was reprinted at mythic (even if it was printed in a pre-mythic era). Cards that are printed at rare in Battlebond will have a tougher time recovering than stuff reprinted at mythic, irrespective of the demand profile.

Battlebond!

Doubling Season – Class 2

Doubling Season! This card has had quite a roller coaster.

The first Modern Masters printing what, 5 years ago brought it down and demand from EDH brought it back up and demand from boring Atraxa decks brought it WAY up. Doubling Season is going to recover and when we’re at peak supply of this set (basically when people stop drafting it) I think you go in hard. If they’re going to go 5 years between printings of Doubling Season, it’s a pretty safe pickup at its floor and being in a set with $4 booster packs like Conspiracy rather than a set with $10 boosters like Modern Masters will bring it down more than it was brought down before. I don’t know if this will ever be $100 again, but I think however low it goes, it will recover. EDH demand is huge for this card.

Land Tax – Class 1.5

This is a weird hybrid of Stifle and Mirari’s Wake and the price should end up somewhere between those two extremes. Land Tax is a card that’s pretty useful in EDH.

However, the huge price spike wasn’t predicated on that slow, steady EDH demand, it was predicated on its unbanning in Legacy which ended up not really mattering since no one plays Legacy anymore because apparently playing with Watery Grave and Hallowed Fountain will make people catch fire and die so they can’t play the format at all because they don’t have duals. Also, SCG stopped having Legacy events and since they were the only ones doing them, the format is shrinking. It’s still played, but it’s played like Arcade DDR or that weird Russian Roulette from The Deer Hunter, in small pockets of the country that not many people know about. Land Tax will recover more than Stifle did due to its inclusion in 10,000 EDH decks even at its current price of like $25 for a 4th edition copy. Land Tax will drop more than Mirari’s Wake did, most likely, because a lot of its current price is predicated on that huge spike and the associated price memory so even if it recovers a decent chunk of value, it won’t recover as much of a percentage of its current price. That really only means something if you’re holding them now and want them to recover to the price they are now. You will likely make a decent amount if you buy at the floor and let it recover. This only has about 2/3 of the demand Wake does and its price is predicated on a false spike and some scarcity but you can still make money buying at the floor, but it’s not a slam dunk Class 2 card, either.

True-Name Nemesis – Class 1

True-Name Nemesis is basically worthless in EDH despite having been printed in an EDH product. The card was designed to be used in Legacy and it was put in EDH product to help it sell, as if the Nekusar deck needed the help. Nekusar became a very popular commander and the Strix printing should be been sufficient, but if they were going to give people Legacy staples, why not give them all of the Legacy staples? Anyway, Battlebond printing this, even at mythic, basically dooms it to a life at its new price. Legacy demand really isn’t enough to cope with all of the new supply and that’s factoring in its recent price correction upward. I think the lack of demand outside of Legacy, which really isn’t getting played that much, means the current demand can’t really handle the new supply and I don’t expect this to recover. It may not be the same price for 5 years like Stifle but it’s not going to recover robustly enough to trifle with it when there are better choices in Battlebond.

One caveat is that foils of this are probably going to be pretty expensive, so bear that in mind.

Vigor – Class 1.5

Vigor is one of those cards that was a bulk rare for years until EDH came along and said “This is what we’re about and that mana cost is no object” and its price has reflected that. Even with that weird Garruk/Liliana deck printing, Vigor has maintained $20 for basically 5 years and flirted with $30 at one point. This is likely to tank quite a bit being reprinted at non-mythic rare but it’s going to recover some value. If you buy at the floor and sell when it stops growing, you’ll make money – it’s that simple. Vigor will recover.

Demand is not as robust as it is for other Class 2 cards, but it’s also a $20 card that was priced out of a lot of players’ decks. If it’s available for $5, even for a few months, this gets priced back into decks and players will become more enfranchised (the stated goal of reprints) which should help its demand profile. People who never dreamed of owning Vigor before join the demand pool, pushing it up. This demand still won’t be as robust as it will be for cards like Land Tax and it’s also being printed way more than those cards being printed at Mythic, so make sure this really hits bottom before you buy in and expect a bit of a longer wait. This is still a card I like as a pickup at its floor.

Diabolic Intent – Class 1.5

This was a goofy buy, predicated on there not being a smooth way to reprint this and it having dodged a bunch of Commander deck reprintings. Oops. It’s also played about as much as Vigor, which is to say half as much as Land Tax.

As much as I think the current price is predicated on false pretenses, I also think it has enough of a demand profile to recover in price after it tanks. Whether it’s pre-reprint price is predicated on false pretenses or not is irrelevant to its ability to recover after the reprinting. I think this will do better than Stifle because it’s played in a growing format, a cheaper price like $5 will enfranchise people who were priced out at the $28 Card Kingdom wanted for this card and this is similar in demand to Vigor which I think will recover. I also think this won’t do as well as a true Class 2 card like Wake since it’s being printed at rare. I think this makes you some money and I think you should trade off Class 1 cards for them if you can.

I think that’s all the news fit to print today. I expect a lot more high-impact reprints in this set and I expect it to sell well because it’s amazing and fun. I also have seen dealers are getting heavily allocated. Maybe that’s so they don’t run out and have no resupply like they saw for Unstable. Maybe it’s because they looked at Conspiracy sales numbers and don’t expect it to do well so they aren’t printing as much. Either way, low supply could mean prices recover a lot faster and/or tank less than anticipated. Either way, there’s free money to be made, so let’s make it. Until next time!

Watchtower

The Watchtower 5/21/18 for ProTraders – Plan Your Specs

May 21, 2018 Travis Allen 1 Comment

By: Travis Allen
@wizardbumpin

Don’t miss this week’s installment of the MTG Fast Finance podcast, an on-topic, no-nonsense tour through the week’s most important changes in the Magic economy.

In what may be the strangest announcement day so far, we heard nothing about any future Masters sets and nothing about Commander. We did get a single spoiler for Battlebond — which has full spoilers starting today — news that there’s a three set Ravnica block this fall (which we all knew already), and finally that China is getting its own Standard format. Huh? Announcement day should be exciting and build hype for things to come. I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that literally nothing here was set up to make people excited about the next six months of Magic.

History of Benalia

Price Today: $19
Possible Price: $40

Losing Masterpieces has had at least one benefit for our types; Standard prices aren’t flattened nearly as hard as they were over the last few years. No longer are high value bonus cards shackling singles prices to an average price closer to $50 or $60 a box. Now they can stretch up towards $80 and $90, which means the highest demand cards can really stretch. Just take a look at Karn and his $60 price tag.

While Karn has been the quickest and biggest winner, there’s still room for others. We’ve seen Teferi, Lyra, and History of Benalia pick up ground too. My suspicion today is that of those, History of Benalia still has room to grow, as odd as that may seem.

Looking through a variety of Standard results, you’ll see that nearly every deck with white in it is playing Benalia. And not just one or two either, typically all four. Walking around the floor of GP Toronto I saw the same thing; knight tokens galore. History of Benalia is shaping up to be one of the best cards in Standard. If you’re control, it provides another strong axis to attack on. If you’re aggro, it’s hard to find a better use of three mana. And if white midrange shows up, I expect it will be useful there as well.

Twenty dollars isn’t a cheap buy-in price for a Standard mythic. But we’re seeing that singles prices are very different in a post-Masterpieces world. When this October rolls around and 45% of decks are running a playset of Benalia, it’s not going to be $20.

Mycoloth (Foil)

Price Today: $6
Possible Price: $20

Dominaria brought with it several appealing new appealing new commanders, including the (literally) dank Slimefoot. The Saproling King, Slimefoot has given new life to an array of saproling-related cards that had otherwise languished in obscurity, Elvish Farmer chief among them. Then there’s Mycoloth.

Mycoloth is found in 10,500 EDHREC decks. That puts it in the top 50 or so most played green cards. Considering the competition, that’s impressive, especially since you probably didn’t realize how popular Mycoloth is. I sure didn’t. Not only is Mycoloth remarkably popular, but he (it) was popular long before Slimefoot made the scene. Which means we’ve got a strong base of popularity to start with, and now we’re throwing fuel on the fire.

You can find some — very few — foils around $6 right now. They’ll be gone in short order and then foils will post up in the $15 to $25 range, where they’ll sit until the return of devour, whenever that is. It’s not looking to happen anytime soon.

Grand Abolisher (Foil)

Price Today: $20
Possible Price: $50

While I didn’t realize Mycoloth was so popular, I knew Grand Abolisher is. Making everyone shut up while you take your turn is great in all decks, and especially so in others, where you’re able to execute your combos in relative peace. Nice Path to Exile you’ve got stranded in your hand, idiot!

While non-foil reprints have shown up three or four times now, there’s still only a single foil copy available; the Magic 2012 printing. Those came out in 2011, which means this June or July Grand Abolisher will turn seven years old. How time flies, eh? Since then, Grand Abolisher has ended up as the 11th most played white card in Commander. What a fun coincidence this year; born in 2011 and now he’s 11th.

There’s a handful of foils still floating around at $20, and given how old Abolisher is, and how popular he’s been for so long, we aren’t going to see any more flooding the market. These will continue to get snagged, and then the cards just going to be $40 or $50 and we’ll all just say “oh, ok.” So if you’re interested in abolishing at a great rate, don’t sleep on this guy.

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