Unlocked Pro Trader: Hanna are you OK? Are you OK Hanna?

I was going to continue the “Things I learned” miniseries this week since it was a hit last week but today’s article in an emergency article and I want to get it out as quickly as possible since time is of the essence for some of these picks. I am mostly going to focus on one new card and the financial consequences of such. I mentioned Hanna in the title because that’s a deck I can see jamming this new combo, but Brago can’t be ruled or, nor can Grand Arbiter Augustin or Lavinia or any number of UW commanders. OK, let’s stop talking about talking about it and talk about it already.

Solemnity is a card that’s going to impact a lot. In Standard, it’s going to make it miserable to play Walking Ballista and that snek that gives stuff counters and… look, Standard is lame, I don’t care about the names of Standard cards. Here’s what could be a thing based on this card.

Decree of Silence

This card is under a buck and foils are around $7. This is the first card I thought of when I read Solemnity, so naturally this is where I am directing people first. The foil has more potential to pop, but Scourge is in pretty low supply and this card has real potential. A few decks were running it already, which is also good because people who brewed with it before will be aware of its power. I used to use Hex Parasite to remove counters but this is way better.  This is perhaps the best combo with Solemnity, but is far from the only one.

Phyrexian Unlife

Not requiring any blue, this card is even more flexible making damage turn into counters which can’t be applied to you. It’s not that much of a chore to pair Solemnity with blue cards, especially since a lot of the decks that want this combo will be Azorius. People ran Rest in Peace and Energy Field, for example, and the tutors to get that combo and the counters to protect it make Azorius the place to be. However, other color combinations love stupid combos like this and now they have one they can play. Phyrexian Unlife is basically hitting a second spike so expect fewer loose copies than usual.

Celestial Convergence

This is another Mono-White pick that I think is saucy. If you have Solemnity out, the player with the highest life total wins the game when you cast this. Hot damn. Decks were running this before, a little, but it’s a lot easier to cheat with cards that come into play with 0 counters and accumulate them rather than the other way around. Too many cumulative upkeep counters on Mystic Remora? Brago that $^#&. Since we couldn’t do that with this (Brago loads it up with counters, which is not cool) people weren’t bothering as much. This is a card that hasn’t spiked before so expect a lot of copies in dollar boxes at the LGS. This will take longer to climb than second spike cards like Phyrexian Unlife, so don’t fee like you missed the boat if other cards dry up faster.

Glacial Chasm

Speaking of Cumulative Upkeep counters, this card can’t get those anymore. Great googily moogily, do we have a lot of ways to not take any damage! Suddenly Azor’s Elecutors and Luminarch Ascension are looking even sexier. I like this already since The Gitrog Monster is a deck and they just printed a Crucible of Worlds with feet. This was good before, it’s extra good now. Solemnity is going to get us more advantage than Mystic Remora. Speaking of Mystic Remora,

Mystic Remora

Of all the cards with a Cumulative Upkeep, this was getting the most play before. This gets a lot better with Solemnity, obviously, so combine how it’s starting to creep up a bit with how good it is when it’s a Rhystic Study that no one pays mana for and you have a recipe for a pretty good card advantage stew. It’s stupid that all of these cards are in the same colors. Either they’re blue like Mystic Remora, or they’re white like

Sustaining Spirit

This is as risky as Phyrexian Unlife, basically requiring you to got to 0 life before this kicks in, you still don’t die and that’s good. This can lead to hilarious games with you dead and fighting counterspell wars over enchantment removal. Being dead to Krosan Grip is risky and this deck will be fun.

Elephant Grass

This card used to be fair. It’s worth less than a dollar as a fair card. What could this be worth as an unfair card? It’s Ghostly Prison with upside for a mana with Solemnity out, and that’s not bad for a card that’s already playable.

There are several decks likely to jam Solemnity shenanigans in them, and those cards have upside, too, if Solemnity decks take off.

Enlightened Tutor

Not that this was ever not a good pickup, but this could be a better pickup soon. It’s down from its historic high and this could be just the push it needs to make you glad you bought at the floor.

Plea for Guidance

Search for Solemnity and any combo piece? K. I’m down.

Hanna, Ship’s Navigator Judge Foil

This could be at its floor. If this starts to tail upward based on hype from Solemnity and its myriad cheaty combos, Hanna could be a buy at its current price. Watch it to see if it stays flat or heads down a bit more, though. I think it’s worth waiting a bit and paying a little extra for some assurance that the card is on the way up. This is the deck most likely to run Solemnity, although a lot of the cards likely to be in the new build are already run by Brago. Brago’s worth nothing, but hte EDHREC pages for both Hanna and Brago are required reading. There are a ton more specs on those pages.

I’m sure people are going to discover a ton more combos with Solemnity over the next day or two, so keep an eye on twitter for clues. If you’re a Pro Trader, congratulations on getting this a few days early – that could make all the difference on hot specs like these. Thanks for reading. Until next time!

MTG Fast Finance Podcast: Episode 72 (June 16th/17)

MTG Fast Finance is our weekly podcast covering the flurry of weekly financial activity in the world of Magic: The Gathering. MFF provides a fast, fun and useful sixty minute format. Follow along with our seasoned hosts as they walk you through this week’s big price movements, their picks of the week, metagame analysis and a rotating weekly topic.

Show Notes: June 16, 2017

Segment 1: Top Card Spikes of the Week

Faerie Macabre

Faerie Macabre (Shadowmoor, Foil Common)
Start: $1.00
Finish: $15.00
Gain: +$14.00 (+1400%)

Condemn (DIS, Foil Uncommon)
Start: $12.00
Finish: $30.00
Gain: +$15.00 (+150%)

Street Wraith (FS, Foil Common)
Start: $30.00
Finish: $60.00
Gain: +30.00 (+100%)

Aladdin’s Ring (ARN, Rare)
Start: $6.00
Finish: $12.00
Gain: +6.00 (+100%)

Ghost Quarter (DIS, Foil Uncommon)
Start: $35.00
Finish: $55.00
Gain: +$20.00 (+57%)

Crystalline Crawler (C16, Rare)
Start: $4.00
Finish: $6.00
Gain: +$2.00 (+50%)

Saprazzan Cove (MM, Foil Rare)
Start: $6.00
Finish: $8.00
Gain: +$2.00 (+33%)

Segment 2: Picks of the Week

James’ Picks:

Unearth

  1. Unearth (UZD, Foil Common)
  • The Call: Confidence Level 8: $12.00 to $25.00 (+3.00/108%) 0-12+ months)

2. Mystical Tutor (EMA, Foil Rare)

  • The Call: Confidence Level 7: $15.00 to $25.00 (+10.00/+67%, 12+ months)

3. Aether Revolt Booster Box (Russian)

  • The Call: Confidence Level 8: $95.00 to $150.00 (+55.00/+58%, 12+ months)

Cliff’s Picks:

Duskwatch Recruiter

  1. Condemn (MPR, Uncommon)
  • The Call: Confidence Level 9: $6.50 to $13.00 (+6.50/+100%, 0-6+ months)

2. Rishkar, Peema Renegade (Aether Revolt, Rare)

  • The Call: Confidence Level 8: $2.00 to $6.00 (+4.00/+200%, 0-12+ months)

Disclosure: Cliff and James may own, or intend to own, speculative copies of the above cards.

Segment 3: Metagame Week in Review

The guys touched on the results from the SCG Modern Open in Charlotte.

Segment 4: Topic of the Week

James & Travis discussed the 25th anniversary release schedule and all the latest previews and leaks.

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

UNLOCKED: The Watchtower 6/19/17

By: Travis Allen
@wizardbumpin


Don’t miss this week’s installment of the MTG Fast Finance podcast, an on-topic, no-nonsense tour through the week’s most important changes in the Magic economy. And if you enjoy playing Magic, make sure to visit https://scry.land to find PPTQs, SCG Opens, and more events on an interactive map with worldwide coverage. Find Magic near you today.


Man, #GPVegas, right? I’m on about four hours of sleep right now, and I’d imagine anyone else that attended is in the same boat. Some Invocations were spoiled. Inventions Engineered Explosives was bought out. The Modern GP had a wacky top eight. Everyone who knew what they were doing spent way too much money on food and loved it. But man this Monday sucks.

Leonin Arbiter (Foil)

Price Today: $10
Possible Price: $20

Inexplicably, there were two Hatebears decks in the top eight of Vegas. I’m not exactly clear on how that happened. Nevertheless, here we are. Hatebears has been a permanent fixture in the tier 2.5 bracket of Modern, and this weekend we saw that even mediocre decks can occasionally overperform.

There’s certainly a subset of players that enjoy this strategy, and that will continue to be true so long as you can attempt to tax and needle players out of the game. People were doing this with Maverick in Legacy six years ago, and the strategy is still around and kicking today.

Leonin Arbiter is a permanent fixture in Modern D&T, and while normally I wouldn’t be keen on cards from a semi-niche strategy like this, Arbiter has now gone quite awhile without a reprint, and I wouldn’t say Wizards is gunning to print him again. He could show up in Iconic Masters or Masters 25 of course, but it would be one of those “well I guess” reprints, rather than a “we need to put this somewhere.”

There are a few foils at $10, and putting two copies into the top of Vegas is likely to inspire more people to move into the deck, as it’s a sort of validation of the strategy’s competency and competitiveness. I’m not sure that’s true, mind you, but it will read that way to some. In any case, $10 for foil staple in a tier two-ish deck that’s now pushing seven years old isn’t a bad pickup. Sales of just a few playsets would put this firmly in the $20 range.


Dictate of Kruphix (Game Day)

Price Today: $4
Possible Price: $12

I’d say there were two exciting things to see in the Modern GP, and UB Taking Turns was one of them. It was certainly a wild list, with specific quantities that appear to be tested. Does that mean it’s actually a good deck, rather than just someone that got lucky at the wrong tables in Vegas? Maybe. The tools for some sort of turbofog list are basically all there, and it’s a strategy that has been successful in other formats multiple times. Death’s Shadow existed for years without anyone discovering it; the same could be true here.

Whenever a deck like this pops up on the radar, a small rush of players look to pick it up. Time Warp and Temporal Mastery would typically be the cards most poised to jump in price, but there’s suppressing factors. Mastery was just reprinted in MM3, and while it’s been longer for Warp, there are still four printings out there with well over 200 copies available. Part the Waterveil was just printed and has a huge stock. Exhaustion has 1,000 printings. (Although I went looking for 9th Edition foils, and I cannot find a single copy anywhere at any price.) Howling Mine is the same. I figured normal Dictates would be a good place to start, but there are 250 copies on TCG alone. Maybe eventually, but that day is not today, and it’s the type of card Wizards will reprint off-cycle.

I had forgotten there was a Game Day promo of Dictate though, and it’s sweet looking. A quick check sees just 24 vendors on TCG with copies. That’s a number I like to see. Over on EDHREC Dictate shows up in over 4,000 decks, which puts it on the list of most popular EDH cards in the last year. That’s another number I like to see.

Copies are available right around $4, and UB Taking Turns or not, that number is going to rise eventually. This Modern deck is only going to expedite that.


Chief Engineer (Game Day)

Price Today: $1.75
Possible Price: $8

UB Taking Turns was the first interesting thing at the Modern GP; “Blue Steel” is the other one. Zac Elsik, with such credits as Lantern Control and Nourshing Shoal Goryo’s, showed up with a Grand Architect aggro deck. He did not design it, mind you — please don’t yell at me in the comments that he stole the idea — he just tweaked it, and performed reasonably well with it, with a final finish of 11-4. (With three losses to Eldrazi Tron, apparently.)

Grand Architect is certainly where you may want to look first, but the time for that was a few weeks (or years) ago. At this point, that ship has sailed. Lodestone Golem has too many printings and too little demand. Master of Etherium is already pricey. Smuggler’s Copter is too new. Chief Engineer was printed in Commander 2016. But — just like Dictate of Kruphix — I forgot there was a game day promo of this guy.

With over 2,000 EDH decks running Chief Engineer, there’s clearly demand. For reference, there are 2,200 Breya decks in the REC file. He should also be an auto-include in just about any deck with an artifact theme. And, again, cool looking Game Day promo that’s never showing up again.

You can snag these for around $2 right now, less if you get lucky. There aren’t too many out there though. Most major vendors are out of stock or low supply, and TCG is down to 50 sellers. That’s not miniscule, but it’s not a large reserve either. I’m not expecting a sudden buyout on this unless the deck top eights another SCG Open or Grand Prix in the near future, but pressure on supply will definitely be constant, and there’s no more copies coming.


Travis Allen has  been playing Magic: The Gathering since 1994, mostly in upstate New York. Ever since his first FNM he’s been trying to make playing Magic cheaper, and he first brought his perspective to MTGPrice in 2012. You can find his articles there weekly, as well as on the podcast MTG Fast Finance.


UNLOCKED PROTRADER: What We Learned (so far!)

So I think we need to be honest: while a lot of the attention and coverage is on the triple Grand Prix in Vegas and all the associated silliness, there’s a lot still going on, especially as this is Announcements Week!

I’m not here to remind you of what’s happened. If you have a Twitter account, if you even glance at the Magic subreddit, if you engage at all the you’ll read this and not need me to tell you the base news, but there are some things worth taking away from all the stuff that’s gone on.

I’m going to be referring to this site quite often for the next year or so: the ‘Coming Soon’ page. This is a list of what’s coming out and when, though some specific dates aren’t on there, it’s at least a month/year listing.

Financially speaking, there’s a whole lot of things to be aware of. It’ll be up to you about what action to take.

The Masters Sets

We’ve had expensive times in Magic before. I don’t think we’ve had anything to compare to this, though. In one 12-month period, we will have had Modern Masters 2017, Iconic Masters, and 25th Anniversary Masters, or Masters 25 as they are calling it, and I devoutly hope a better name comes along before then. I get that it has to say ‘Masters’ in there someplace, to continue the naming convention, but wow that makes for awkward branding.

Those three sets represent 747 reprinted cards, in just one year. There might be some overlap, there might not.

Why we care: Reprint risk has been at an all-time high lately, and this is a pure minefield. Something like Conspiracy would at least have some new cards, but this is all reprints and all will likely have the one-foil-per-pack setup we’ve gotten used to.

I don’t know what they are going to print and speculation is rampant. We’ve had a lot of reprints covered in the Masterpiece series (more on that in a second) but right now, I’m taking stock of what I’ve accumulated and if the value has appreciated enough, I’m going to look at moving it. This many reprints in this short of time is a minefield, and I want to minimize what’s going to hurt. I don’t think you can escape, if you have a lot of cards you’re holding long-term.

 

From the Vault: Transform

One of the things that’s come up over the years is the logistical difficulties of printing double-faced cards, and how safe those are from being reprinted. I wonder if anyone thought this would be the solution to a problem that doesn’t exist. There’s only 92 cards that are completely double-sided, and 59 of those are from the last two years. Will they have fixed the terrible appearance of FTV? Will these somehow curl on both sides?

Why we care: The quick consensus seems to be that Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy is going to be the expensive card of the set, and Delver of Secrets seems like an easy inclusion…and then what? I freely admit that I’d been quietly picking up foils of Archangel Avacyn, and that seems likely to take a hit. Are we going to get the Arilinn Kord reprint we didn’t need? There’s not a lot of value in double-faced cards, and what value there is, is about to take a major hit.

I think a Meld pairing is going to be included, but which? I think Hanweir, the Writhing Township is most likely the choice but who knows? Will we get the full Delver trilogy? Will they do something wild, like turn the Kamigawa flip cards into full transform cards? Who knows. Would we even care? I highly doubt the prices of old flip cards would budge if new double-sided versions were premiered this way.

 

The third Un-set: Unstable

I’m exceptionally torn about this. On one hand, playing with either of the first two silver-bordered sets was an amazingly enjoyable experience. On the other, I think I would pay full price to draft this…twice? Three times, tops? We have a recent example of how this model doesn’t always work: Conspiracy: Take the Crown. It’s a lot of fun, a unique draft experience, it’s got its share of valuable cards, and yet you can still get boxes dirt cheap.

Why we care: The basic lands. When we get around to opening these packs, we are going to expect some sort of unique land design. I don’t think they can match, much less excel, the standard set by Unhinged’s minimalist approach or the beauty of John Avon’s work. I do think these will look…nice. Pretty, even. But they will need to carry all of the value, since none of these cards will be worth anything else. Foils will likely not carry much weight either, as you can’t put these in Commander decks. How many thousands of Unstable cubes will need to be created for this to be valuable?

 

The beginning of single-set blocks and the return of Core sets

This might be the biggest news of all, aside from the leaked cards. We’ve had things sort of like this before, such as a standalone third set (Rise of the Eldrazi, Avacyn Restored) or the big-big-small model of Return to Ravnica block, but this is going to be interesting. Sets will be opened for three months and that’s it. No more 6:2:1 of the three-set block, or the 3:1 ratio of two-set blocks. This is one and done. Supply will be pretty clear at that point. We also get Core sets back, which means reprint mania!

Why we care: I like the single-set model because I don’t have to worry about that trickle of packs during the second set. For example, as we go into Hour of Devastation, does the small amount of Amonkhet being opened mean the price of Anointed Procession will keep trending downwards? Core sets will likely be on the modern model of some reprints and some new cards, keeping the set interesting while providing a place to reprint stuff that might not have fit, flavor-wise, into some other block. Think of Stifle or Inquistion of Kozilek in Conspiracy 2.

 

The Ixalan Leaks

So someone who’s working on test prints for Ixalan (the set is three months away, the cards should pretty much be set in their wording, barring emergencies) decided to snap a couple of photos and spread the word. This is wrong and bad but not something that we can ignore.

Why we care: We’re about to get a new tribal-based block, with some interesting color shifts. Merfolk in green. Vampires in white! DINOSAURS! We are also about to get tribal Commander decks in August, so if stuff avoids reprints in that set and this, it’s got nowhere to go but up.

The Commander decks worry me, because, again, that’s a lot of reprints. Foils are probably safe, but only if they couldn’t possibly be in Ixalan. Something like Obelisk of Urd, where the nonfoil is an easy inclusion into a Commander product, but the keyword is ruling it out of Ixalan.

 

Masterpieces becoming rarer

Someone at Wizards must have said, “Holy crap, we’re already down to printing Divert as a super-mythic alternate frame chase card? We need to throttle back.” So Masterpieces will be back, just not in every single set. FTV: Masterpiece is probably just a couple of years away.

Why we care: Standard will be a little more expensive now without chase cards goosing the value of the product. I think this is the worst side effect of a good change. We’re too used to this, and it’s in our best interest to have this be something we are excited for, a bonus, instead of an expectation.

 

Cliff is an avid kitchen table player who’s loving the Drake Haven deck in FNM. He’s been at this since late 1994 and doesn’t appreciate being called iconic, though he’s extremely likely to build a foil Unstable cube. Find him on Twitter @WordOfCommander.

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