Mastering Modern: Making Money on Modern in 2017 (Pt 1)

March 8, 2017 James Chillcott 6 Comments

It would be perfectly natural if after looking over the Modern Masters 2017 set list last week, you found yourself wondering “how am I going to make money on Modern this year?”. And while the surprisingly solid starting EV (Estimated Value) of MM17 boxes has set off the usual round of doomsaying with regards to the viability of Magic finance, the nimble minded among us should have relatively little trouble finding a way forward. After all, the set does have value well distributed between the mythics, rares and uncommons, but the print run is likely to torpedo the EV in the coming weeks, and plenty of relevant cards were left out.

That being said, last week I wrote that opportunities in Modern were likely to come from a few specific categories:

Recovering Reprints: Examples: LoTV, Tarmogoyf, Snapcaster Mage, Cavern of Souls
Recent Reprint Dodgers: Examples: Ancestral Visions, Inkmoth Nexus, Engineered Explosives, Grove of the Burnwillows, Mishra’s Bauble
Newly Useful Cards: Examples: Rite of Passage, Death’s Shadow, Amulet of Vigor, etc. (when they were new)

This week I’m going to kickoff a three-part series, starting with an examination of the cards from MM17 that are most likely to make us money if we get in at the lows.

Note: Crystal Commerce, the software many vendors use to manage their inventory has been causing issues with TCGPlayer inventory this week, so I am referencing Ebay BIN prices and StarCityGames.com pricing as well as TCG & MTGPrice Vendor Team prices posted for now to get a handle on price movements. Generally speaking you can expect prices to fall further once the set is actually released and we start the slog towards peak supply with sellers undercutting each other left and right.

First off, let’s review what’s on deck for reprint in the mythic slot in MM17, and how the week has treated the prices of these cards:

MM17 mythic pricing has already fallen off hard in the last week.

Last week I predicted that most MM17 mythics and rares were going to fall 20-50% heading into peak supply, and here we are just a week later with significant price declines already on the books. Here’s a quick price check I pulled together:

In just a week, the MM17 mythics have shown an average decline of 22%, and if we look back to Dec 1st/16 (when the market was already anticipating the inclusion of many of the Innistrad and Return to Ravnica staples), we see that the average decline has been 42%! That’s a pretty steep cliff if you were holding these cards in decks on the basis that you play with them.

For instance, if you owned a playset of ‘Goyf, LOTV, Cavern and Snapcaster, and held through the ramp up to the set, you’ve already cost yourself $350+! It’s going to be pretty tough to justify that inertia on the basis of getting access to some other staples you need for a deck or two at a cheaper price, but for a new Modern player things are certainly looking up.

And the thing is, we’re just getting started. Whether or not MM17 has been printed 1.25x, 1.5x or 2x the amount of MM15 we saw (which is still in the marketplace well below MSRP), prices today are still going to look optimistic vs. where they are likely to end up once the set starts getting opened. I expect a further 10-15% decline minimum on the mythics.

Now considering all of that, what might we be interested in targeting once market lows are reached? Well, generally speaking, we want to go after the cards that meet the following criteria (borrowed from my preliminary work on SpecScore):

multi-format all-star
playerd in multiple decks
low casting cost
low # of reprints
low chance of banning

Given all of that, my top pick at mythic out of MM17 so far is Cavern of Souls.

Cavern of Souls is the poster child for open ended synergy, benefiting decks that are tribal focused and either a) multi-color or b) in need of counter-spell defense. The card is nearly always played as a four-of, it sees play in multiple archetypes in Modern and Legacy, the card has legs in casual, the new art is sweet, the foils are likely to be stunning and it’s a card that some folks like me already offloaded and will be looking to pick back up. It’s also been confirmed that a strongly tribal themed set is in the pipeline (Azatlan?) and Cavern will certainly be useful once that appears. This is the first reprint for the card and I don’t think this card is likely to be a priority for MM19, though there are no certainties that far out.

Target Entry: $20-25
Future Exit: $40

Liliana of the Veil is the 14th most played card in Modern, and is often played as a two or three-of. This is her first non-promo reprint, but I could see her ending up in Modern Masters 2019 again, where they may have significantly less fresh meat for the grinder given the relative lack of new Modern relevant mythics from the last few years. LOTV is one of the most iconic cards of the last decade but I well remember picking her up at $55 in the winter of 2015, a price I think she can fall beneath in the next few months. I suspect $45-50 copies will be available and that they may recover to $65-70 in the next twelve months. Past that point MM19 casts a scary shadow, so the window will be tight to make the spec worthwhile, unless you need some to play with.

Target Entry: $50
Future Exit: $70 (with low certainty)

Tarmogoyf is now on its 3rd reprint in five years. There is no doubt the card is a powerhouse, but surely there is a limit to how many times something can be printed without tanking semi-permanently. On the other hand, ‘Goyf is the 5th most played card in Modern and the 6th most played creature in Legacy, is nearly always played as a 4-of, and is played in multiple archetypes providing resilience to meta shifts.

It is worth noting that the best green creature in Modern made it from $115 around Modern Masters (2013) to $200 before the 2nd reprinting in Modern Masters 2015 (which was a surprise at the time), but it’s been basically all downhill from there and finding the bottom this time is going to be tricky given how much inventory was already on hand heading into this latest printing. In the past vendors have tried to defend the price of this card with aggressive buy listing but that time is likely past. I fully expect copies to end up available between $50 and $60 at peak supply and truly I see this as an opportunity to own for play more than a great spec. If MM17’s print run ends up as deep as I fear it is, or if a fresh wave of inventory is made available to vendors later this year, I won’t be prioritizing this card beyond the personal playset I’ve held off on for years.

Target Entry: $60
Future Exit: $80 (with low certainty)

Snapcaster Mage was a bit of a surprise at mythic instead of rare, and as such, is more likely to show gains down the road. The card has a promo printing behind it and is the 19th most played card in Modern, showing up in 12% of decks and usually played as a 4-of. In Legacy it’s the 11th most played card, showing up in 25%+ of decks at an average of about three copies. Those are great stats, but this could easily show up in MM19, so the window is likely to be tight here as well. Currently selling at $35, I suspect you’ll get a shot at these closer to $25 and if you can get a couple of playsets near $100, I think you’ve got a solid chance exiting closer to $160 minus fees, especially if MM17 availability is scarce come the end of the year.

In contrast, 70% of the people I polled on Twitter preferred the original art, so I’m more likely to target those than the new version once we get to the lows.

Target Entry: $25
Future Exit: $40 (with a tight sales window)

Voice of Resurgence is just barely in the Top 40 creatures in Modern, but keep in mind that this card has already fallen $30 (75%) in the past year on modest play patterns and anticipation of this set. When the card is played it is often as a 3 or 4-of and W/G decks featuring this card alongside Renegade Rallier have been popping up lately. If blue-based control finally turns the corner in Modern, that would also help boost demand for this counterspell hoser.

Once Voice gets below $8 it will have my attention and at $5-6 I’ll definitely take action.

Target Entry: $6-8
Future Exit: $15+

Some of the other mythics feature a fairly limited demand profile and I strongly recommend exiting asap. Linvala, Keeper of Silence has already cratered from $45 to $20, and I think it could hit $10, as the play pattern in Modern is very shallow. Grislelbrand has some potential if he gets to $6, but his climb back up from the combined suppression of his GP promo and this printing may take a while. Most of the rest of the mythics already under $10 are equally unexciting, though if I’m pushed I would say that Craterhoof Behemoth near $10 (a strong EDH staple), Sphinx’s Revelation near $2 and Past in Flames at say $6/play set might get a bit of my spec flow when the time is right.

Now let’s see what’s happening with the relevant rares:

MM17 rares are displaying massive drops in price over the last week.

Digging deeper, if we look back to Dec 1st/16, the story is even darker.

Note: I used post-spike pricing for both Basilisk Collar and Death’s Shadow since their price 3 months ago wasn’t particularly relevant. I missed Cyclonic Rift in this list as well.

If you were holding a large Modern collection or a went deep on some of these cards as specs, you are unlikely to be pleased by what this chart is telling us. MM17 rares have shown an average decline of almost 55% over the last three months, with 35% of that in just the last week. Of course, if you are just getting into Modern and had little in the way of collection value to lose, you are going to get a shot at a very solid entry point on a pile of key staples. (In contrast however, many cards that dodged the reprint bullet are likely to spike this year.)

Keep in mind that these prices are pre-order period pricing, which tends to be significantly higher than the prices we are likely to see 3-6 weeks from now as peak supply on MM17 is achieved and Amonkhet starts to steal the focus (and the money) away from this set.

As with the mythics, deciding where to get in and what to get in on is largely a function of how deep the print run goes, but we can apply similar principles as above to select some likely targets.

The Zendikar Fetchlands

Anyone telling you that you should get in on these lands at current pricing needs their head examined. The price memory on these cards is going to be soft because despite their inflated value heading into this scenario, they were printed at rare. Had they been printed at mythic rare, they might have held closer to their old prices, but you’ll be better off if you erase past expectations and work with an eye to the future.

Like some of you, I’ve been awaiting an entry point on a few of these for personal use for at least a couple of years, but trust me, there isn’t a rush to jump on pre-orders. There are going to be an average of two of these things in every box of Modern Masters 2017 and there are going to be 10,000-20,000 boxes of this set sold in North America alone. That’s a minimum of 20,000 new fetches entering the market, or 4,000 play sets of each. That means 1,000 players each get a shot at a set, and despite the average drop off in value in the mid 40% range since December, I don’t think we’re done yet. As of today, StarCityGames wants $45 for a Scalding Tarn. That tells me that TCG NM Low is likely to be closer to $35, and that deals via social media are going to touch $120/set or lower. I consider this math to be conservative. If there’s more like 40,000 boxes sold, the lows will be lower.

As far as speculation targets, Scalding Tarns and Verdant Catacombs are most likely to continue their popularity regardless of the specific meta, but all of these are solid pickups if they get low enough and you have personal use for them. It’s worth reminding you here that Khans of Tarkir fetches have been mostly shallow gainers, though Polluted Deltas and Flooded Strands I bought at $10 are now closer to $15. Still, whether MM17 is 1.5x or 4x the print run of MM15, there’s still a big difference between a globally released fall set and an LGS only set with an MSRP of $10/pack that’s printed in just three languages. If the foiling in this set is as bad as MM15, original foils may be gainers, but they do have the hard ceiling of the Expedition versions capping their progress.

Without knowing just how much inventory is in the pipeline I’m not in a rush to get more than a personal play set. Let’s revisit options once we’ve got some pavement behind us before going deep here.

Target Entry:

Scalding Tarn: $20-25
Verdant Catacombs: $20-25
Misty Rainforest: $20
Arid Mesa: $15-20
Marsh Flats: $15-20

Future Exit:

Scalding Tarn: $40
Verdant Catacombs: $30+
Misty Rainforest: $30+
Arid Mesa: $25+
Marsh Flats: $25+

People were joking about Damnation not getting a reprint for so long that they lost sight of just how shallow the demand for this card actually is. It doesn’t rank in the Top 50 spells in Modern, let alone the Top 100 cards, and is most often played as a one or two of. There is some demand from EDH but in the end, this is a Wrath of God, and pricing on this class of cards has not been kind to reprints. SCG is currently looking for $35 on this card, but copies are already posted under $30, and I will be stunned if it’s doesn’t drop under $20 when all is said and done. In fact I feel strongly enough about this card dropping that I’m tempted to sell them now at $30, and fill those orders with copies I buy in a few weeks at $20 or less. If you need this card for a deck, grab one at lows, but I hate it as a spec.

Target Entry: $20
Future Exit: Don’t bet on it

On the one hand, Blood Moon is a devastating card that hammers reliance on non-basic lands in Modern so hard that it gets main decked in multiple decks. It’s in the Top 30 spells in the format, appearing in 13% of decks but only averages two copies in the decks that want it. It’s been four years since it last showed up in Modern Masters, after which it gained popularity and topped out over $50.

On the other hand it is on a short list of cards that many Modern players feel the format would be better off without and carries a slight chance of being banned. All in all if it gets low enough I’ll pick some up, but it’s not a priority.

Target Entry: $15
Future Exit: $25

Goblin Guide is one of the Top 25 most played creatures in Modern, but doesn’t have much demand beyond that. I consider the original art from Zendikar superior to the new art, but tastes may vary. The card is a staple creature in Zoo and Burn decks, and almost always played as a 4-of. Copies are already out there for $17 or so, so I expect that a $50 play set is almost certainly doable in the coming weeks. The lower it gets beyond that point, the more interested I get as the decks it fits in are some of the most common entry level decks in the format and the card has an essentially zero chance of being banned and a very low chance of falling out of the format permanently due to a meta shift. It’s worth noting here that at $12, even after a 100% gain in the last few weeks, Eidolon of the Great Revel might be the better pickup since supply has been draining and it is highly unlikely to show up before MM19.

Target Entry: $12.50
Future Exit: $20+

Most of the rest of the rares are going to be sunk for a long time, but very low pricing on Death’s Shadow, Abrupt Decay and Pyromancer’s Ascension might grab my attention. Other cards like Basilisk Collar, Scavenging Ooze and Stony Silence are either reprinted to irrelevance or corner case cards that can’t handle all the fresh supply.

In terms of uncommons, Path to Exile, Inquisition of Kozilek and Serum Visions have shown a resistance to reprintings in the past, but you can sit back and look for a deep low before making a move there and the returns are likely to be minor regardless.

When scouting for entry points on all of this, I recommend two specific periods of review. First, look to the week after release for the initial flurry of buying interest to be overcome by building inventory, leading to a serious race to the bottom, especially on the cards with weaker overall demand. Some people that bought in hard on boxes and cases on spoiler news will be panicking when they realize this is going to be a buyers rather than a sellers market, and deals will be had. The next period I would be targeting would be Amonkhet spoiler season through to the week after that sets’ release. I expect that set to be impressive, and even if it’s only average it is going to steal attention and wallets from MM17.

Join me next week when we follow up on the Modern cards that weren’t reprinted in MM17 that are already on the move or may do so down the road.

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

Jason Alt, Uncategorized

Angels and Giants

March 7, 2017 Jason Alt 5 Comments

Modern Masters 2017 is fully spoiled, and, may I just say, what in the actual @#$%?

Seriously. Seriously. Seriously.

I predicted the set would be crammed with value and that a lot of the cards I predicted would be in it would be in it. In reality, the set was crammed with value and a lot of the cards I predicted would be in it were in it PLUS Tarmogoyf. It’s kind of hard to even right now. What we can do is look at the set, understand that the EV is through the roof, supply is much higher than we’re used to seeing with a Modern Masters set (no one knows exactly how much so it’s going to be tough to predict exactly how much prices will fall and we don’t need to do that to know we should buy at the floor, anyway) and figure out which targets are juicy. For the purposes of this article, I’m going to try and isolate cards that are just predicated on EDH demand and let other people tell you what Modern and Legacy may or may not be able to affect. Modern has an actual metagame and changes to it and bannings affect entire decks. EDH bannings, an infrequent event, don’t invalidate a whole deck, merely a card. We’re looking at a stable, predictable format and we even have some historical data of EDH cards in Modern Masters sets. Let’s see what we see!

The first Modern Masters had a lot of EDH goodies in it, and some of them got smashed, especially at rare.

Adarkar Valkyrie

Valkyrie was about to recover and might well have done an OK job of it if not for a second reprinting in Commander 2014 a year later. Those two combined have made this a bulk rare basically in perpetuity. But not ever card was so unlucky.

Stonehewer Giant

This has gotten back to its pre-reprint price. You can thank a little buoying from the renewed interest in this kind of card with the printing of the Nahiri commander deck as well as it being a nice budget alternative to Stoneforge Mystic. There’s one thing we can check that can help shine some light on the subject.

There you have it. How much a card is played can also be a factor, with Giant justifying some of its price with nearly double the inclusion. While it’s a little disingenuous to directly compare a card reprinted once with a card reprinted twice (much more aggressively the second time) we have a good idea of the factors that can affect the price so we can tell if a card is an Angel or a Giant. In this context, Angel is a bad investment doomed to stagnate for years and make you no money and Giant is a card that promises robust recovery. Giants give us those sexy, U-shaped graphs we like to see.

Modern Masters 2017 is going to give us more copies of a given rare than Modern Masters… 2013? 1? What do we call it? I’m just going to call it “Modern Masters” the way everyone refers to “A New Hope” as “Star Wars” and the other sets I’ll refer to as Modern Masters 2015 and 2017.

Let’s look at a few cards and see if they are an Angel or a Giant.

Craterhoof Behemoth

I have hopes for this card. In a lot of ways, I feel like this is a worst-case scenario sort of card. What if they print so many packs of Modern Masters 2017 that we have as many mythics as we did of Modern Masters rares? Are there cards with similar levels of adoption printed at rare in Modern Masters that could show us that Craterhoof could recover?

Woodfall Primus

I feel like I don’t even need to put the arrow on June 2013 to show where it got reprinted – it’s very obvious. Worst-case scenario, we get so much Modern Masters 2017 that mythic is the new rare, we see Primus (4,939 EDHREC decks, to Craterhoof’s 6,779, both well above the 3,479 we saw with Stonehewer) recovering almost 100%. Craterhoof also has some Legacy implication (very minor) to help it. My hope is that Craterhoof flies under the radar a bit. Everyone will use splashier mythics like Tarmogoyf and Griselbrand and Linvala in their EV calculations and the lack of immediate demand might tank hoofy’s price a bit. I see this being a Giant under even the worst of circumstances and the more this falls, the more money we make. Will it ever be almost $30 again? I’m not sure. I think it could recover a lot more than people think, and given that it’s mythic, it’s hard to imagine there ever being enough supply to fully tank its price. Even the ugliest Modern Masters mythics don’t look that bad.

Vedalken Shackles

1,163 decks on EDHREC and an artificial spike from the Modern Blue Moon decks make this just about the ugliest Modern Masters mythic and there’s still hope of recovery. Craterhoof has much better bona fides than this. I’m very confident. I’d love to be fair and show the price graph of Comet Storm but, shoot, it got another reprinting and can’t tell us anything. Darn.

Zur the Enchanter

Compare Venser to a card that’s almost sure to get ground into powder. Coldsnap didn’t get opened a ton and cards like Arcum Daggson have demonstrated the ability to reach and hold some pretty lofty prices but Zur here is in for a big hit. While EDHREC numbers lie a bit (his 188 inclusions and 539 registrations as a commander [yes, it’s in more decks as a commander than inclusion] belie how popular he is in competitive and French Commander, formats where they rarely register on EDHREC but where their inclusions are even more likely to drive prices) I still think this is set to take a big hit. Being reprinted at non-mythic in a set where we’re nervous about mythics’ ability to regain ground before 2019 when we could see another reprinting is bad news bears for this card. It’s already having a tough time maintaining some of its earlier hype. I’d like to say its EDHREC numbers don’t matter because this would be a good example of counter-intuition if this were going to recover but I fear it can’t. Angel for sure.

Sphinx’s Revelation

This is going to get crushed into absolute powder. It’s going to be on fire for weeks, maybe months. Here’s the thing – I think this could end up getting down to bulk mythic status. Modern doesn’t use it a ton, Legacy at all, people who started playing in the last 4 years don’t even remember how dominant it was and no one seems to be aware that this is a pretty decent EDH card with 3,871 registered decks including it. It’s Oloro gold and Oloro is a top 5 commander of all time. When this gets pulverized, and it will if non-mythic rares like Blood Moon are to maintain any of their value, this is a very good pickup. I like this at its floor, which could end up being bulk. Being able to grab these greedily for cheap is a very attractive proposition. I think its EDH numbers are strong enough to maintain a price increase from oblivion and it’s basically no-risk if this ends up in bulk mythic territory. We have to see how low this goes, first (I don’t like buying these at $2, for example) but this has the ability to rebound from completely cratering and EDH demand is enough to do that. This is an X spell that draws cards and gains life – it’s even better in EDH than it was in Standard and it absolutely warped Standard. Giant here, provided it gets humbled enough before it begins its comeback.

Basilisk Collar

This card has had a very weird month. No sooner did people notice this was pretty keen in conjunction with Walking Ballista (the same way people made the connection with it and Inferno Titan in Standard) in Modern than it was announced as a reprint. Clearly this was a “Wow, and EDH card people love is $10? That’s not cool” reprint and not a “Let’s bring the price down because Walking Ballista spiked it too hard” because while they knew Ballista was coming, it’s unlikely they planned a Modern Masters 2017 inclusion based on a 30% increase from more Modern play. This is in 3,303 EDH decks currently and it’s stupid with commanders like Olivia Voldaren. Can this be $10 again? I think it’s possible that it can. I think this card is a good example of the concept of Hidden Demand that I talked about last week. People who weren’t super aware of this card until its Ballista application materialized will likely underestimate the power of EDH. I think the demand from EDH and its cheap price suddenly making it accessible to people who weren’t inclined to shell out $10 for a Gorgon Flail are going to surprise some people. I see a nice, U-shaped graph in this card’s future. It won’t be $13 and it might not even be $10, but if it ends up $7.50, you’re going to be glad you paid $3 for it.

Venser, Shaper Savant

I said last week that this was something that could show us some hidden EDH demand that could trick people who think its price increases are entirely predicated on use in Modern, and in a deck that no one is really using anymore at that. EDH demand is pretty robust and is in line with the numbers we arbitrarily decided were OK for other cards – 4,434 inclusions and 56 as a commander. That’s a lot of demand that people who see this as a fossil from a Blue Moon deck that’s no longer in vogue (look at how sluggishly Vedalken Shackles is limping along after its reprinting in Modern Masters at Mythic) won’t realize is there. At 4 times the inclusion rate of Shackles, Venser is far more than some mere Blue Moon card that no one needs anymore.

I think it’s done a nice job recovering from it FTV printing. That goofy spike to $50 on the graph throws the scale off and belies the fact that its modest-looking crawl starting in mid 2015 is actually a precipitous $10 increase. That’s a very robust recovery.

Will it recover as well from a Modern Masters non-mythic printing? It’s hard to say. However, I think that while it’s going to have a tough time recovering if we’re getting as much product as people seem to indicate, it’s also going to be overlooked. I think the lack of apparent demand from competitive players will relegate this to a lower “tier” initially and its price will take a bigger hit than something like Blood Moon. That being the case, you may be able to make as much money as you would have buying something more expensive at its floor even if this card doesn’t quite reach its previous price. That is to say it may grow at a rate that’s a smaller percentage of its previous price than something like Craterhoof, but it could fall at a greater rate, also, meaning in terms of real dollars you can make as much money buying in at the floor even if it doesn’t recover to the same percentage of its initial price. Is that sentence gibberish? Tell me in the comments if that sentence is gibberish.

I’m personally pretty jazzed for this set. I really hope everything just takes a pounding and prices end up slashed because we’ve seen that a lot of these cards can recover nicely. There are a few unknowns. Will the FTV printing of Venser combined with its Modern Masters 2017 printing be as detrimental to the price as the Commander 2014 plus Modern Masters printing were to Adarkar Valkyrie? Or will the robust demand and relatively small print run of the FTV be enough to negate it? Is Venser an Angel or Giant? I’m betting he’s a Giant and I am betting money on it. There are some other very attractive targets to invest in. Next-level investors are looking at cards that have upside not having been reprinted and while that’s smart and useful (Check out James’ column tomorrow), EDH demand is strong, predictable and quantifiable. What more could you ask for?

Thanks for reading!

Watchtower

The Watchtower 3/6/17

March 6, 2017 Travis Allen

By: Travis Allen
@wizardbumpin

Don’t miss this week’s installment of the MTG Fast Finance podcast, an on-topic, no-nonsense tour through the week’s most important changes in the Magic economy. And if you enjoy playing Magic, make sure to visit https://scry.land to find PPTQs, SCG Opens, and more events on an interactive map with worldwide coverage. Find Magic near you today.

I’d love to tell you about some cool new deck in Standard, I really would. Maybe a Mechanized Production list that took the MOCS by storm, or something showing up repeatedly in the MTGO constructed leagues. That would be great. But I can’t. The MOCS was as boring as can be, with almost everyone in the room playing Copycat or Mardu Vehicles. The most exotic deck there was Temur Marvelworks, which is hardly an unknown quantity. I guess we’re stuck waiting for Amonkhet to shake things up? That or the ban list announcement next Monday. Either way, Aether Revolt’s exploration period was short lived indeed.

Instead, we’ll look over at Modern again. With the Modern Masters 2017 spoiler now completely available, we know exactly what’s coming, and more specifically, what isn’t. The last few weeks I’ve featured several cards that I thought had good outlooks if they weren’t reprinted, and I don’t think any of them were. All of those perspectives still stand. We’ll get into a few more now.

Threads of Disloyalty

Price Today: $4.50
Possible Price: $15

Remember this card? Remember how it used to be $30? Well, it’s $4.50 now. When a card that used to be $30 is now $4.50, and there was no reprint or banning involved in the presence of the card in the metagame, that means we could reasonably return to the old high.

Somewhere between Born of the Gods and Journey to Nyx, Threads spiked hard, and has ridden a slow train downhill to the roughly $4.50 a copy you’ll pay today. It doesn’t show up all too often today, though it was still seeing play for months after the initial price spike. Does that rule it out as unplayable though? No, not at all. More than likely, people just sort of forgot about it after it stopped serving an immediate need in the format.

Imagine this against Death’s Shadow, for instance. Threads can steal their Tarmogoyfs, for one thing. It can also steal the eponymous card. And in the instance where your life is high enough that Death’s Shadow doesn’t stick around, hey, that’s cool. It acts as a pseudo-removal spell in that situation. People aren’t playing three mana removal spells in Modern too often, but a three mana control magic that can kill Death’s Shadow in a pinch is fine. And it’s not like people stopped playing Tarmogoyf, or Snapcaster Mage, or Arcbound Ravager, or Scavenging Ooze, or Dark Confidant, or Grim Flayer, or…

There’s not an immediate impetus to grab copies of Threads of Disloyalty. I don’t expect it to come roaring back into Modern this week. It’s worth keeping an eye on though, all the same. With no additional copies having been added to the market since the last time it was far into double digit territory, there’s no reason whatsoever to think that it couldn’t do it again. If this begins sneaking into 5-0 league lists at some point, it may be time to act.

Eldrazi Temple

Price Today: $7.50
Possible Price: $15

This may have made you money a year or so ago, and it could be time to double dip if so. If you missed the first time around, well, don’t make the same mistake twice.

Browsing Modern events, whether they’re 5-0 league lists, or GP top 32s, or SCG Opens, there always seems to be a few Eldrazi lists floating around. They’re mostly Bant builds these days, with the usual crew: Reshaper, Displacer, Smasher, Seer. In every list there’s four Eldrazi Temple; mini Mishra’s Workshops each. The alien menace hasn’t run over Modern or anything, but it’s definitely carved out a part of the metagame for itself.

There’s also the Eldrazi/Taxes hybrids floating around. Those play cards like Leonin Arbiter, both Thalias, and Chalice of the Void. They’re more about restraining your opponent’s resources while presenting a clock rather than running hasty 5/5s into people’s faces, but they still play at least eight Eldrazi, and as such, four Temples. This isn’t a fringe deck either; like the Eldrazi Aggro builds, this archetype has claimed a slice of the meta.

We’ve now got two different Modern decks each running a full playset of Eldrazi Temple, as well as your typical fringe usage in Legacy, cube, etc. It’s even in a good 1,500 EDH decks over on EDHREC.com. Supply on the Rise of the Eldrazi and Duel Deck printings is sparse, with maybe a couple of playsets between the two editions. MM2 supply is considerably deeper, but there’s still less than a page total on TCGPlayer. This means that while I’m not expecting an explosion in price in the immediate future, there’s few enough copies out there that we could certainly see this start to climb without too much public chatter necessary.

With the Cavern of Souls reprint bringing down the price barrier on the Eldrazi strategies, supply where it is, and Modern’s history of driving mana bases wild, there’s definitely reason to believe that we could be looking at $15+ Eldrazi Temples within 2017.

James Chillcott, Modern Masters, MTG Fast Finance, Travis Allen

MTG Fast Finance Podcast: Episode 57 (Mar 3/17)

March 3, 2017 James Chillcott 8 Comments

MTG Fast Finance is our weekly podcast covering the flurry of weekly financial activity in the world of Magic: The Gathering. MFF provides a fast, fun and useful sixty minute format. Follow along with our seasoned hosts as they walk you through this week’s big price movements, their picks of the week, metagame analysis and a rotating weekly topic.

Show Notes: Mar 3, 2017

Segment 1: Top Card Spikes of the Week

A pretty quiet week in card spikes…that is up until the MM17 reveals wrapped up Thursday and people started moving on cards that weren’t included. (Expect to see those here next week.)

Rite of Passage (Fifth Dawn, Rare)
Start: $0.50
Finish: $6.50
Gain: +$6.00 (+1200%)

Carpet of Flowers (Urza’s Saga, Uncommon)
Start: $3.50
Finish: $15.00
Gain: +$11.50 (+330%)

Tainted Pact (ODY, Rare)
Start: $2.00
Finish: $5.50
Gain: +$3.50 (+175%)

Falling Star (LEG, Rare)
Start: $6.50
Finish: $17.00
Gain: +$10.50 (+161%)

Eidolon of the Great Revel (JOU, Rare)
Start: $6.00
Finish: $12.00
Gain: +$6.00 (+100%)

James’ Picks:

Ancestral Vision (TSP, Rare)

The Call: Confidence Level 8: $35.00 to $60.00 (+25.00/71%) 12+ months)
Note: Source from Europe to snag at mentioned price

2. Karn Liberated (NPH, Mythic)

The Call: Confidence Level 8: $45.00 to $70.00 (+25.00/+55%, 0-6+ months)

3. Horizon Canopy (FS, Rare)

The Call: Confidence Level 8: $35.00 to $60.00 (+25.00/+71%, 0-12+ months)

Travis’ Picks:

Noble Hierarch (MM2, Rare)

The Call: Confidence Level 7: $45.00 to $70.00 (+25.00/+56%, 0-6+ months)

2. Inkmoth Nexus (MB, Rare)

The Call: Confidence Level 6: $20.00 to $40.00 (+20.00/+100%, 0-12+ months)

Disclosure: Travis and James may own speculative copies of the above cards.

Segment 3: Topic of the Week

James & Travis got deep on the exciting new Modern Masters 2017 release.

CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

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