ACCUMULATED KNOWLEDGE 2016 SNARKMAS SPECTACULAR!

ACCUMULATED KNOWLEDGE 2016 SNARKMAS SPECTACULAR!

Welcome back everyone to the annual Accumulated Knowledge Snarkmas Spectacular! The holiday season has arrived, and not a moment too soon. Quite frankly, 2016 can’t end soon enough- we are running out of likeable musicians and it was getting to the point where I wanted to move George Clinton to a bomb shelter to ride this thing out. So let’s bid farewell to this year together, as we look ahead to the ultra-nationalist hellscape that waits ahead with Snarkmas 2016.

This is going to be a “best-of [YEAR]” style article with my own brand of edgy but accessible humor, as well as some holiday treats and even some musical guests! Honestly, if you’ve made it this far you’re probably going to read the whole thing regardless, so let’s get started!

I’ve also made this article free for everyone, because pageviews are my lifeblood I’m a kind and generous hero! Hooray for me!

BEST NEW STAR WARS MOVIE

“Rogue One”- I have to shuffle around some of the categories from last year, but this one feels pretty safe to last for a few years. I promise I won’t spoil anything for you here, but this movie was really fun. There were definitely some bumps, and it’s not going to be anyone’s all-time favorite Star Wars movie (“The Empire Strikes Back”), but for Disney’s first foray into what are basically Extended Universe movies,it was a home run. Some of the Easter Eggs in the film were the right balance of fun and inconspicuous, others were much more blunt and jarring1.

CHRISTMAS MOVIE THAT YOU SHOULD WATCH

Rogue One. Then go back and watch “A New Hope”. Then hell, you might as well watch “Empire”… and “Jedi”. You can do “Force Awakens” if you want, or just save it for tomorrow. I’m pretty wiped.

Oh, uh… “Die Hard”. That counts, right? If not, then here is one of my favorite Muppet Christmas specials- I tried to get the John Denver one too, but the quality wasn’t great.

OVER-RATED CHRISTMAS MOVIE THAT YOU’LL PROBABLY END UP SITTING THROUGH THIS YEAR

A Christmas Story- This movie is like Christmas wallpaper. Or maybe better yet, it’s the evolution of those ‘Yule Log’ programs that nobody actually uses. A Christmas Story, as a film, is essentially just a collection of vignettes tied together by a very thin plot arc. It is, however, pretty relevant in 2016- an undereducated American white male thinks a gun will solve all of his problems, and projects that warped reality onto his religious beliefs. And it even manages to get in a pretty offensive racial stereotype right before the buzzer! The crazy part is that the cable network that has been pushing this movie for years (TBS? TNT? Whichever one doesn’t have basketball on) only started airing it so much because the rights to the movie were so cheap. Essentially, this became a holiday ‘go-to’ because literally nobody went there in the first place. Fortunately there will be football on this year, so watch that. Kudos to the NFL putting Bengals at Texans as the Christmas Eve late game, ensuring that everyone would rather go to sleep, thereby assuring Santa a quick turnaround. I would rather be beaten mercilessly by Kraumpus than watch that game.

Ralphie becomes radicalized through a series of social embarassments.

BEST NEW MAGIC-RELATED THING IN 2016

Masterpieces! They are really cool, instantaneously recognizable, and do a really good job of impacting the Standard market without creating a new rarity involving otherwise unobtainable cards. Standard is much better off now than it was prior to the Masterpiece era. I suspect it will take a while for people to internalize how these changes affected the ecosystem, but I definitely think everyone will be better off down the road.

WORST NEW MAGIC-RELATED THING IN 2016

Frontier! I have been pounding the table for a format to exist between Modern and Standard for a while now, and Frontier is an awful solution. The fatal flaw is built in at the foundation- it is non-rotating and tries to combat accessibility problems by picking a very recent starting point. The issue is that in ten years, Khans of Tarkir or M15 or whatever really doesn’t make much sense as a starting point for your format. Some important cards will be expensive, some effects will gradually over time become too good (think Wrath of God), and the format will take on a lot of the same issues as Modern. Extended, even as just a “double” or “triple Standard” makes more sense in prolonging the shelf-life of cards, rather than trying to preserve them forever.

Wow, don’t you miss playing with this card? Me neither.

SYNOPSIS OF 2016’S MTG FINANCE HALLMARK CHRISTMAS MOVIE

Jace is a workaholic mind mage who spends all of his time serving as the Living Guildpact for the plane of Ravnica- and then he met Chandra. Can this Manic Pixie Dream Arsonist teach him the true meaning of Christmas? Or at least the non-religious one, which is basically just “work less around the holidays”? The answer is a very low-budget “yes”.

MY BEST DECK OF 2016

It’s probably got to be the RG Energy deck. This award will be much more exciting next year, when it essentially becomes the best of my Game Day series for that year, but I don’t really remember what I was playing prior to Kaladesh. I think it was just a bunch of crappy Jund decks. Anyways, here’s the winner (and my primary template heading into Aether Revolt!).

SIGN THAT MAGIC IS GROWING LIKE CRAZY

So not to alarm anybody, but when I return in January our first topic is going to be bracing for the end of Magic’s boom phase (something that I covered briefly a few weeks back, although with an admittedly broader theme). It’s hard to say that Magic is in a bad spot right now, but I definitely think the growth is plateauing. Maybe the movie will help?

CARDS THAT YOU’LL WANT IN FIVE YEARS

One of the most painful things in Magic is looking at prices of cards that you used to own. Here are the cards that are around $5 or so that you’ll be kicking yourself for not holding onto in a half-decade (as well as a percentage degree of confidence):

Blooming Marsh (and the rest of the cycle): So Spirebluff Canal is about $8, and while the question may be “can the other lands hit $8?”, I think it’s actually “Can Canal hit $20?”. I think the answer to both of those is yes, and that the margins will eventually narrow between the color pairs. (85% confidence)

Haven of the Spirit Dragon: Cheap and relevant to an evergreen card type. Dragons are popular outside of EDH, and some kid always wants to build a Dragon deck. This is a clear 4x in any deck allowed to play more than one. (95%)

Mirrorpool: Not as wide in application, but good in almost any EDH deck. The only issue here in several years is visibility. (90%)

Aetherworks Marvel: Higher than my usual price ceiling, but because it makes AND consumes energy, it’s not required to be in an energy-focused deck. I think it’s just a matter of what ends up breaking this, and what format that pairing is in. (50%)

Saheeli Rai: This is a super cheap planeswalker in a popular color combo that already has some very convoluted combos. I don’t expect it to ever be a $40 card, it could be $15 or $20 if things break well. (33%)

Eldritch Evolution: This was a popular buy at $5, I like it even more at $2.50. (99%)

Collective Brutality: A good card in Modern, which was sort of like an older version of Frontier. (80%)

Atarka’s Command: Frontier staple. (95%)

Relentless Dead: Similar to Haven of the Spirit Dragon, this is a 4x must have in a very popular tribe. Unlike dragons, zombies has more conducive cost and sizing for competitive play. (80%)

HAPPY HOLIDAYS!

I know that the holidays mean different things to everyone, but I just want to wish you and yours the best, and say the words that everyone needs to hear at this time of year:

“May the Force be with you.”

See you in January!

Best,

Ross

1Ponda Baba, I’m literally looking at you.

PROTRADER: PucaPicks for 12/22/16

Before we get to some picks this week, I want to talk about Freytag’s article, Promoting Trades, because it’s so directly relevant to what many of us do. I’m already offering a 30% bonus on foils I want, and lots of other members are offering bonuses too.

That’s the key word: bonus. This isn’t necessary. It’s not a requirement. I am aware that some people like getting a bonus, so I offer it. I want these foils and giving a sweetener is just fine by me. But it is not a requirement. It’s extra. Most trades on the site don’t have a bonus.

Pucatrade is working hard to take points out of the system, and a fee for promoting trades that can be paid in points is going to further that goal. I cannot overstate how awesome it is that the fee for getting your needed Invention can be paid by sending some other member a pair of Saheeli Rai, or some such.

I also want to link a page I was sent via Twitter where some guys talk about their experiences, good and bad, on Pucatrade. I’ve certainly had ups and downs, and the short version is that as long as you are participating, trying to do things better, they will get better.

I would also really like to hear from you if you’ve been working Pucatrade over by sending out booster packs. It would seem to me that the postage is prohibitive, but considering that you can get boxes for about $90, that’s 250 points a pack and you can move them for 394 points. Arbitrage for the win!

Now, on to my picks! It being winter break, and with Aether Revolt spoilers due soon, we are at some delightfully low spots. Almost everything is a buy for me this week, in contrast to a couple weeks’ worth of sends.

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ProTrader: Magic doesn’t have to be expensive.

The Rule of Three

Three Magic players, a Vintage player, a Frontier player and an EDH player, were walking around the back of a convention hall and they found an old bottle in a trash can. They opened it and a genie appeared and said “For freeing me, I will grant each of you a wish.” The Frontier player said “I want to be in Canada with all of my Frontier playing buddies having a huge Frontier tournament.” The genie nodded and the Frontier player and all of his friends disappeared and they played a big, dumb Frontier tournament between the Japanese and Canadians. The Vintage player said “I want a big Vintage tournament with a Lotus as the prize.” The genie said “I can’t do that. Best I can do is a store tournament with a $10 buy-in and unlimited proxies. You’ll probably lose in the first round to someone who has never played Vintage before and made his deck on the back of basic lands with a Sharpie.” The Vintage player said “Are you kidding? That sounds amazing! That’s better than we normally get!” and the genie nodded and the Vintage player and all of his friends disappeared to play in a store tournament with, like, a foil Brainstorm from Conspiracy or some BS as first prize. The EDH player said “So, wait, all of the Frontier and Vintage players are completely gone from this tournament hall?” and the genie said “Yes, that is correct.” The EDH player thought a minute and then said “I wish for a pack of Dragon Shields.”

The rule of three is an important component of joke construction. You know, old-timey joke construction. Back when comics all wore bow ties and told street jokes. A lot of street jokes follow that same rule of three setup – the first two establish the rules and the third example breaks the rule for comedic effect. There’s also some weird rule of three thing for math that probably has to do with triangles or some garbage. I don’t know, I did trigonometry in middle school like everyone else. The point is, I spent a lot of time googling “rule of three” and trying to find a suitable street joke instead of starting this article right away and I didn’t even end up using one I found, I just changed that joke about minorities from The Boondock Saints to make it less racist but more offensive to nerds. There’s another rule of three for Magic, though. It involves cards with a CMC of three and it’s not a rule and I really just want to talk about Trophy Mage this week and this is my column so you can’t stop me. Why do I want to talk about Trophy Mage? I think Trophy Mage, and 3 CMC cards in general, are going to be pretty important when Aether Revolt comes out and I want to be ready.

Awww yiss, lookit dis mage.

Look at it.

CLOSER

TOO CLOSE.

Here’s the part you really need to look at.

That’s a sexy text box. A “sext box” if you will. Also, even if you won’t because, and I can’t stress this enough, this is my column. I make you people enough money that you will look at a nostril or a text box if I say so and you’ll start saying good cards have “sext boxes” because I made you a lot of money on Squandered Resources or whatever. Do you doubt that we should be looking at 3 CMC stuff? I have a few more reasons to believe we should be.

Yahenni’s Expertise references cards with CMC 3 or less as a bonus to playing this 4 CMC spell. I am sure CMC will matter in this set since multiple cards reference it (Scrap Trawler being another) but with multiple cards referencing 3 specifically and Trophy Mage looking like a pretty saucy tutor (People play Trinket Mage in EDH and that gets like 3 relevant cards), I want to look at the 3 CMC artifacts that are easier to tutor for and which ones could have some upside. I also want to get a jump on thinking about CMC stuff in EDH before Aether Revolt gets spoiled any more.

Scrap Trawler probably gets its own, entire article at some point. EDH moves very slowly so we can pencil it in for next week or even 2017, frankly. Make no mistake, though, Trawler is going to buoy some prices for real. It’s got a ton of combo potential, and it existing in a format with cards like Goblin Welder means there are likely a ton of shenanigans possible. Junk Diver is an important card and this is way better since you can sac any artifact to get the party started as long as Trawler is in play. Give me a week or two to really good deep on implications of this card and we’ll have a sweet purchase party with all of the money you’re going to get for Christmas and Hanukkah or Festivus or whatever. 2017 is going to be a much better year than 2016 so why not invest in it? We’ll come back to Trawler soon enough, and by that I mean “weeks before the prices actually start to move.”

What do I like in the “3 drop artifact” category?

I almost want to keep a running list of every card I looked at and discarded as a potential spec after deciding there wasn’t anything to be gained from buying based on its current pricing trends. I did a gatherer search for 3 CMC artifacts and there are a ton of targets but a lot of them have a big, glaring reason not to buy in. If you think of a 3 CMC card and think “Why not this one?” there is likely a reason that I thought was compelling. I’m not saying don’t ask me to explain my logic, but I am saying I don’t want to read comments that imply I’m too dumb to think Basalt Monolith is worth talking about as opposed to me looking at it and ruling it out. We’re talking about specs, not cards that are good in EDH that you can grab with Trophy Mage. Who cares how good a card is if it’s $1 and is going to get reprinted every 2 years until it’s powder?

This hasn’t been blasted by reprints, ground into powder or… summoned too much… by reprints. Anyway, this is a combo piece that works insanely well with Scrap Trawler specifically. This can kill people if you have ways to make tokens, etc. I don’t need to tell you how good this card is and how it’s an important piece of murder combos. Being able to tutor for it might not give it upside, but it might and this card looks healthy regardless. It could be reprinted conceivably, but they have skipped a lot of good opportunities to do so and this could easily hit $5 in a year or two with no increased play. I think it will see increased play, though, so we don’t need to look far to see Fifth Dawn uncommons that can tell use how high this could go.

Curio is very well-positioned right now. It’s got great potential, the Masterpiece seems to signal a reprint may be a long way off and Trophy Mage loves to be returned to your hand and recast to find more cards. This seems like a great buy right now. This is bound to go up soon, regardless of whether Trophy Mage is the only card in the set that really interacts with it (I don’t know if people are casting a bad Damnation in EDH just to get a free 3-drop artifact).

Do we salivate because this is recovering very nicely from a reprinting or do we stay away because it’s due for a reprinting? They have demonstrated a real willingness to print this before and could again. In the mean time, its price trend is encouraging and it’s a very good pillow fort card that could go well in the new pillowfort deck helmed by Kynaios and Tiro which happens to have blue in it. I don’t hate this, but I am a little worried about another reprint blowing our doors off.

I don’t know if I want to pay $15 for this, but MTG Deals has 14 copies of this for $1 above buylist. That seems like a slam dunk. This is a stupid card that you can make work to your advantage by imprinting a snow-covered land so only you get the extra mana. Being able to tutor for it as early as turn 1 and having a body left behind is appealing. I like this a lot at $9. Don’t be a little piggy and buy all 14 yourself, though.

You can get a Conspiracy copy for like $1.50. Not bad for a card that The Gitrog Monster made spike to $10. Considering Conspiracy 2: Conspiratorial Boogaloo boxes are the $80 that is basically a store’s cost and no one seems keen on busting them, we are at peak supply and have hit a valley on price. Now is the time to get so greedy that you put the horn to shame.

Mana Web is basically the only thing on planet Earth that had a good 2016.

Mimic Vat is growing nicely and I think it’s got upside regardless of whether it sees increased play. That said, it surely should see more play. This couples very well with sac effects and so does Scrap Trawler. I think this gets played in enough EDH decks that it’s a good candidate. It’s mostly played in Trostani, which is brutal since you get double tokens and gain life when you use this and Trostani. Imagine that with Acidic Slime or something. Other decks are starting to catch on and use this, too and it’s already rising. Being able to tutor for this in a non-Trostani deck is appealing.

Narset made this card very appealing initially. It hasn’t done much since, but this has a ton of potential and is never going to get any cheaper. I like this as a pick-up, even now.

Oh, hai. Member me? I’m selling out everywhere. Kydele is still dumb and this card is still dumb with it. Fetchable with a blue creature, you say? Sign me up.

Everything I said about this card is true of Umbral Mantle, also.

Making the last alimony payment to the woman I married on a drunken dare at the first GP Las Vegas is reminding me how long it has been since Modern Masters. I think this could start recovering. There is also a non-zero chance that people play some blue deck in Modern that runs this and it shoots up again. This is a very good card, and it’s at a very good price, in my view.

I think this is a pretty good place to start looking. Obviously we might not see a ton of cards that interact with cards of this specific CMC, but we could. Imagine a card that says when you play a 3 CMC spell, you untap a permanent. Maybe you draw a card when you play a 3 CMC spell. Maybe a blue spells that counters a spell, bounces a permanent or draws a card that lets you play a 3 CMC spell for free just like what’s-his-nuts’ expertise does. There are ways that 3 CMC stuff can have even more upside. I like Trophy Mage an awful lot and I am going to get as many of the promo foils as I can.

Next week we may have more spoilers to talk about and there is also a ton of Scrap Trawler shenanigans to discuss. They made Scrap Trawler the Buy a Box promo so clearly they have faith in it, also. That does it for me this week. Tune in next time!

PROTRADER: The Watchtower 12/19/16

By: Travis Allen
@wizardbumpin


Don’t miss this week’s installment of the MTG Fast Finance podcast, an on-topic, no-nonsense tour through the week’s most important changes in the Magic economy. And watch this YouTube channel to keep up to date with Cartel Aristocrats, a fun and informative webcast with several other finance personalities!


SCG’s 2016 Player’s Championship is in the books, with Joe Lossett having hefted the trophy up by Sunday evening. It was a three ring circus, with players competing in Standard, Modern, and Legacy. Despite battlegrounds in all three formats, we’re only looking at Standard in today’s roundup. Legacy isn’t worth looking at because prices are fairly stagnant these days without enough events to drum up dramatic shifts, and Modern didn’t have a lot going on we hadn’t already seen plenty of before. Add in that we’re just leaving the Modern PPTQ season and Modern Masters 2017 is slated for release in just three months time, and you can see why we shouldn’t expect much growth in that field with a handful of exceptions in the near future.

Did you catch that, by the way? Modern Masters 2017 officially releases March 17th. That’s three months before GP Vegas, which the last two times has been held much closer in time to the set’s release. Instead, we’re now going to see Modern Masters hitting shelves eight weeks after Aether Revolt’s official release. If spoiler season starts two weeks before MM3, it will be a short six weeks between it and Aether Revolt.

Verdurous Gearhulk

Price Last Week: $7
Price Today: $7
Possible Price: $15

Early on in spoiler season people began getting excited about Verdurous Gearhulk, and this peaked just as the set released, with prices at nearly $20. It showed up in several Standard decks at the time, but the play pattern wasn’t strong enough to sustain those numbers at the time. Since then, the price has slowly eroded to around $7 to $8.

We saw several players pack full sets of Verdurous Gearhulk at the PC this weekend, serving as a reminder that the card still exists, and still packs a punch. Standard looks fairly set right now between UW Flash, GB Spider Lava Axe, and Marvelworks, but that doesn’t mean Revolt won’t shake things up enough to make room for Verdurous. If it does, he could end up a consistent four-of in a third of the format. Should that come to fruition, a double up isn’t out of the question at all.

Torrential Gearhulk

Price Last Week: $12
Price Today: $12
Possible Price: $25

The premium mythic slot of Kaladesh is currently held by Chandra, Torch of Defiance, but it’s a tenuous grasp at best. Torrential Gearhulk remains one of the strongest cards in Standard, and its range of replayable spells is about to be widened by Aether Revolt. Like its Verdurous brethren, Torrential Gearhulk is a powerful, potentially format-defining mythic that’s just waiting for an opportunity to take over. I can’t guarantee you that Aether Revolt will bring that to bear, but I can guarantee you that it’s possible.

Weeks after Kaladesh’s release saw Torrential jump into the $30 range, so we know there’s strong expectations around this one. An opening weekend that sees it come out strong could rapidly push the price well above $20, and it could feasibly become the Primeval Titan or Sphinx’s Revelation of its respective format. Keep an eye on how things begin to shake out during spoiler season soon. One or two good instants could make a world of difference.

Spirebluff Canal

Price Last Week: $6
Price Today: $6
Possible Price: $13

We haven’t talked about lands much in Standard lately. Not since Khans of Tarkir was still in Standard anyways, when it was all about fetches and battle lands. When the UR fastland was spoiled a ways back I advocated keeping an eye on it, as the pedigree of UR lands is remarkable. It saw an uptick shortly after Kaladesh’s release towards $10, and has been settling since. After this weekend, I’m wondering if it’s getting close to the floor.

Spirebluff showed up in quite a few Standard decklists, and was in every Grixis Modern deck to boot. With 21 months of Standard legality left, it seems almost guaranteed that this will break double digits at some point. Remember that the most useful Temples back in Theros Standard did that regularly. Inventions certainly change the equation here, so it’s difficult to put too fine a point on it though. So far we really only have Battle for Zendikar to look at as a template, but that set has behaved so significantly different than Kaladesh at every point that it’s almost useless as a reference. We’re left to work on the assumption that a fall set can still support a $10+ land. At this point, if any of them are going to, Spirebluff is probably the best positioned.


 

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