MTG Fast Finance is our weekly podcast covering the flurry of weekly financial activity in the world of Magic: The Gathering. MFF provides a fast, fun and useful sixty minute format. Follow along with our seasoned hosts as they walk you through this week’s big price movements, their picks of the week, metagame analysis and a rotating weekly topic.
Show Notes: Oct 14th, 2016
Segment 1: Top Movers of the Week
Note: Price movements reflect posted NM prices, and may not represent prices players have paid.
Disclosure: Travis and James may own speculative copies of the above cards.
Segment 3: Metagame Week in Review
The guys looked at the Modern MOCS Magic Online tournament (600+ players) last week, highlighting a relatively rare Sultai Mid-Range deck.
Segment 4: Topic of the Week
Travis and James talked over the various decks and cards likely to make an impact this weekend at Pro Tour: Kaladesh and concluded that Smuggler’s Copter and the plethora of aggro decks are likely to maintain their role as the dominant play style of the format. Panharmonicon, Metalwork Colossus and Electrostatic Pummeler called out as potential dark horse success stories.
James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.
Check out our Pro Tour preview over here, and join us for round to round coverage in live blog style below all day.
Round 4 (1st Round of Standard) started at 8pm EST/5pm PST, Friday, October 14th.
Round 4: Martin Muller (Temur Colossus) vs. Shota Yasooka (Grixis Control)
Right of the bat we have Muller bringing Metalwork Colossus to the forefront in a Temur brew that veers off from the UB varieties that have been in evidence on Magic Online this week. It is Yasooka that draws first blood however, taking Game 1 on the back of Torrential Gearhulk, which is already showing signs of a spike. Mueller strikes back in Game 2 to even things up. Yasooka takes Game 3 and puts Grixis Control on the map for this format, running four Thing In the Ice, a card that has been languishing in the $5 range.
Round 4: Jelger Wiegersma vs. Lee Shia Tian (Mardu Vehicles)
This brew is running elements of WR Vehicles with Depala and Copter, as well as Scrapheap Scrounger and Unlicensed Disintegration. Tian loses the first game, but takes the second one.
Off camera, Oliver Tiu has a turn 4 Emrakul in play off of Aetherworks Marvel.
Day 1 Metagame is reported by WoTC Coverage as follows:
Temur Aetherworks 17%
Black-Green Delirium 12%
Black-Red Aggro 8%
Red-Green Energy 7%
Red-White Vehicles 7%
Black-Red Madness 5%
Aetherworks Marvel is drying up at online retailers but we’ll have to see if Marvel can weather the storm of aggro decks that still seem to be out in force.
Deck Tech #1: Willy Edel w/ GR Pummeler
This deck, which aims to deliver 20+ double-strike damage as fast as possible, features the following relevant cards from a financial perspective:
Round 5 (Standard Rnd 2): Pierre Dagen (Blue-Red Spells) vs. Raphael Levy (Blue/Red Emerge)
Pierre Dagen is running a Dynavolt Tower deck. Levy is on a Blue-Red Emerge deck that eschews the green cards usually seen in similar decks in favor of more meta specifics answers and recursion from Advanced Stitchwing. Game 1 goes to the Hall of Famer, as Levy leverages recursive pressure and some burn spells to close it out.
In Game 2, Levy starts on two copies of Sanctun of Ugin. Dagen boards in Thing in the Ice and Niblis of Frost, to help with board control against the recursive plan of his opponent. Dagen is running Take Inventory, another first on camera this season. A Torrential Gearhulk later, and Levy packs it in to try and preserve his clock for Game 3.
Game 3 finds Levy in need of a mulligan, but he does manage to find his lands on the next hand. Levy gets Dagen down to just two life, but Dagen is able to use Niblis of Frost to stave off the final points of damage for several turns and takes the match.
Round 5 (Standard Rnd 2): Eric Froelich (GB Aggro) vs. Reid Duke (RW Vehicles)
This match is mostly showing off the aggressive decks that were expected coming into the tournament. Fairly telling that two names this big, that enjoy the benefits of testing with some of the world’s best teams, still chose to go this route. Under intense pressure, Reid takes Game 2, and evens things out to one game each.
Round 5 (Standard Rnd 2): Thomas Hendriks (Metalwork Colossus) vs. Carlos Romao (Jeskai Control)
Hendriks is running Thought-Knot Seer, Elder Deep Fiend, Metalwork Colossus, Skysovereign and various enabling artifacts. Carlos is on a fresh Jeskai brew, with Gideon, Ally of Zendikar, and Torrential Gearhulk. A key Void Shatter prevents an incoming Colossus, and acts as turning point for the game and we move to Game 3.
Deck Tech #2: Chris Botelho (Dynavolt Tower/Fevered Visions)
Dynavolt Tower back on camera in an impromptu deck tech with brewmaster Chris Botelho on a deck he hilariously calls “FTTF 4000“.
4x Dynavolt Tower
2x Harnessed Lightning
4x Glimmer of Genius
2x Fumigate
3x Consulate Surveillance
4x Fevered Visions
3x Radiant Flames
2x Lightning Axe
3x Anticipate
3x Declaration in Stone
2x Blessed Alliance
Dynavolt Tower is spiking on MTGO.
At the end of Round 5, here are the standings:
Round 6 (Standard Rnd 3): Pat Cox (Temur Aetherworks) vs. Brian Kibler (GR Energy)
LSV calls the Temur Aetherworks deck the most powerful deck in Standard, but notes that it is especially vulnerable to sideboard cards.
In Game 1, Cox manages to get Emrakul on the table early on and Kibler immediately scoops with no hope of answering the most dangerous threat in the format. In Game 2 however, Cox has trouble finding an Aetherworks Marvel and Kibler puts him on a fast clock with early aggro creatures, that lets him even it up. LSV notes that Kibler is running multiple copies of Ceremonious Rejection out of the board as a splash.
Game 3 Pat Cox uses Glint-Nest Crane to find the Aetherworks Marvel he needs to set up a win. Kibler has an aggro plan in action with Lathnu Hellion and company, but he is forced to let Cox search for a threat with his Marvel after forgetting to pay energy to keep his Hellion in play in a major punt. The Marvel activation fails to find a real threat, but Cox does get a green puzzleknot to boost his life and restock some energy. This sequence of events gives Pat enough time to take another swing with the Marvel, and this time he gets to choose between Emrakul or Ulamog. Cox goes with Emrakul, the Promised End and takes control of Kibler’s next turn as well as setting off a Kozilek’s Return from the yard. With no threats left, Brian is stuck without a way out, and yields the match.
We move over to this match mid-game. LSV notes that Watanabe is running Tamiyo, Field Researcher, but loses Kozilek’s Return based on his color preferences. Elsik is also running Dynavolt Tower as well as Nahiri into Torrential Gearhulk, flashing back Glimmer of Genius. These Jeskai lists also run multiple copies of both Wandering Fumarole, Needle Spires, and Spell Queller too. Elsik runs a value train and takes the game.
In Game 2, Yuuya boards into a more aggressive plan with Longtusk Cub and manages to take the game relatively easily. Game 3 sees Watanabe with Tamiyo, Field Researcher in play in the mid-game, facing down some creature lands and a Spell Queller. Yuuya tries for a Spell Queller, only to have it exiled by a Spell Queller from Zac. The Japanese player has an Aetherworks Marvel in play, but with no other relevant permanents left in play and opponent holding a grip of counter spells that can interact profitably with the Marvel. Yuuya elects to hard cast Emrakul, which hits a counter from Zac, shutting down the Eldrazi threat, but opening the door for Yuuya to mess with his opponent’s board state by taking control of his turn off the cast trigger. Watanabe does manage to burn a ton of cards in Zak’s hand and remove some threats, but creature land attacks the next turn still manage to drive home a win, putting Zac Elsik to 5-1.
Deck Tech #3: Raphael Levy (UR Emerge)
4x Cathartic Reunion
3x Fiery Temper
4x Lightning Axe
3x Tormenting Voice
4x Elder Deep-Fiend
4x Prized Amalgam
4x Kozilek’s Return
3x Wretched Griff
4x Advanced Stitchwing
4x Stitchwing Skaab
The deck can’t even cast Prized Amalgam from its’ own mana base, relying entirely on graveyard recursion to pop it back into play after discard. 3/4 flyers in the deck often match up well against Copter. Levy details why he likes the blue flyers over Haunted Dead, due to their ability to apply significant pressure in the air.
Round 7 (Standard Rnd 4): Carlos Romao (Jeskai Control) vs. Reid Duke (RW Vehicles)
Game 1, Reid has his first threat answered by Immolating Glare, but a Veteran Motorist gets a Smuggler’s Copter in soon after, and the beat rush is on. Romao has a surprise Dovin Baan, a card thought to align poorly against the copter, but it does have the option to shut off an existing crew member by reducing its power to zero. A Selfless Spirit from Reid does allow him to crew up the Copter and clear Dovin from the board. Romao manages to counter a Depala, but Reid still gets in for eight, dropping the Brazilian to eight, and Reid takes Game 1 on the next attack step after adding Fleetwheel Cruiser to the board. In the second game, Duke brings the beats in equivalent fashion, and Romao again loses an early Dovin Bann to a massive attack. A Fumigate clears some of the threats but it leaves behind two clues, a Gideon and a Fleetwheel Cruiser and the control decks falls on the next attack step. Duke moves to 6-1.
At a side table, Ari Lax takes control of a Grixis Zombies/Emerge deck via Emrakul, and pulls off a crazy sequence that shuffles dozens of cards back into Kentaro Yamamoto’s deck to deprive Yamamoto of future graveyard recursion options, leading to a quick scoop. Yamamoto does manage to take the match however on the back of two copies of Ceremonius Rejection in Game 3, putting him at 5-2.
In a BG Delirium semi-mirror between Kenji Tsumura and Eric Froelich sees Gonti, Lord of Luxury stealing a Kalitas, Lord of Ghet from Eric for solid value. The Froelich build features Catacomb Sifter, a card that most players have left aside. Both of these players at 6-0 coming into this round.
LSV calls out Aetherworks Marvel as the biggest splash of the tournament, an opinion underscored by the fact that the card is spiking over $20 at present.
Deck Tech #4: Christian Calcano (UW Spirits)
Spirits is still a thing in this evolving Standard meta.
2x Skywhaler’s SHop
1x Ceremonious Rejection
4x Smuggler’s Copter
4x Thraben Inspector
4x Selfless Spirit
4x Spell Queller
4x Reflector Mage
4x Gideon, Ally of Zendikar
3x Archangel Avacyn
2x Rattlechains
2x Negate
2x Stasis Snare
Calcano called out Gideon and Avacyn as excellent top of curve threats that are well adapted against the current meta. Deck is 3-1 in Standard at this point.
Round 8 (5th Round of Standard): Eric Froelich (BG Delierium) vs. Matteo Moure (Temur Aetherworks)
In Game 1 Matteo whiffs on a couple of Aetherworks Marvel activations, and is overrun by consistent pressure from Eric. Game 2, Matteo manages to Ulamog, removing Froelich’s lands and casting a Kozilek’s Return out of the yard to clear the board and earn a concession. On to Game 3. Eric gets to 8-0 as Matteo ends up with too many giant Eldrazi stuck in his hand without a way to cast them, and without a hit off his Marvel, after a mulligan.
Round 8 (5th Round of Standard): Shota Yasooka (Grixis Control) vs Valentin Mackl (Grixis Emerge Zombies)
Yasooka takes Game 1 with some Torrential Gearhulk/Unlicensed Disintegration action. Yasooka takes Game 2 as well, to go to 8-0, as one of the only undefeated players left on Day 1.
Round 8 (5th Round of Standard): Pierre Dagen (UR Spells) vs. Matt Costa (RW Vehicles)
Off camera these players trade a game each. In the final game Costa follows up a Veteran Motorist with Depala, with a Thing in the Ice on the other side of the board. Dagen is able to answer the threats with a combination of Niblis of Frost and some timely burn spells, and the French player goes to 8-1.
That ends Day 1, and we’ve seen a good mix of new and expected decks. Join us Sat evening for Day 2 Standard coverage.
James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.
The world’s most dangerous Magic: The Gathering players are once again coming together to kick off the 2016-2017 Pro Tour season in gorgeous Honolulu, Hawaii. After a couple of weeks of highly secretive testing, and more than a few drinks with little umbrellas, the top teams from around the world are locking in their decks and making plans to take home the trophy. With over $250,000 USD on the line, and the champion taking home $40,000, players will need to be both lucky and good while they prey that their team has read the meta-game correctly. Coming out of the first big Standard tournament of the season, SCG Indy two weeks ago, the pros were facing an incredibly aggressive format that featured the full 32 of 32 possible copies of Smuggler’s Copter in the Top 8. With Patrick Chapin joking that it’s a great format where you can “play any Copter deck you want”, the stage is set for a very odd meta that may include multiple deck styles and color combinations, with the caveat that they are all running the overpowered two-mana vehicle.
It is worth remembering however, that current Pro Tour stops all require that players succeed in a mixed schedule of booster draft (KLD – KLD – KLD) and constructed play (Standard in this case) with 3 rounds of draft Friday morning Hawaii time, followed by 5 rounds of Standard starting around 8pm EST/5pm PST, Friday.
For the MTG Finance community, the biggest question is whether the pros have been able to uncover a new archetype not previously on the radar of the masses. Of note, given the pacific time zone of this tournament, overnight speculation has the potential to be more successful than usual.
Will any of the pros find a way to unlock a new archetype with game against the known field of infinite thopters? Will an underplayed deck from the previous weeks results suddenly end up perfectly positioned after adding a few new pieces of tech? Will there be a chance to get in on a must-have card that shows early promise or will the hype train leave the bandwagon speculators out in the cold without buyers come Monday morning?
Cards to Watch
With many SOI/EMN cards already commanding high price tags, most of the speculation potential lies this weekend should reside in cards that have yet to make an impact.
Here are a few of the interesting cards on our radar this weekend:
Smuggler’s Copter: Here to Stay?
There is very little indication so far that Smuggler’s Copter is a flash in the pan. As a 3/3 flying looter, the card is simply too powerful to be left out of any deck that can crew it effectively, especially given that most colors only have a couple of instant speed solutions that they must have on hand to prevent the early value train from rolling across their skies. The fact that the sweepers in the format mostly operate at sorcery speed, as do the abilities of the planeswalkers, makes the card a tough to answer early threat that can show up in nearly any color combination this weekend. If a control deck manages to break out, it’s possible we might see 1-2 decks in the Top 8 that aren’t running this card, but otherwise, I’d expect it to be running rampant just like it was at SCG Indy.
Financially, if you got in on extra copies of the Copter anywhere under $10, you can likely garner $20 in trade or $15 cash for your copies at present, and get out with a smile. A fall set rare holding more than $5 is impressive, let alone $15, and an unexpectedly poor showing for the card would knock it back below $10 for certain. That being said, there are relatively limited amounts of inventory priced under $16 at present, and the market seems primed to make a move to $20 if the card settles in as a dominant Standard staple.
Interestingly, utter dominance of the card has a chance to lead to a banning, especially if it’s usage ends up consolidating under the banners of just a couple of stand out decks, or possibly, if the format dissolves to aggro Copter decks vs. the only control deck that can battle them. If the format stats diverse on the other hand, with many viable decks, and Copter as the shared staple between them, Wizards may leave well enough alone and avoid the issuance of a rare Standard banning. If banned in a month or two, this card drops to $2, so be aware of the risks of too much success here.
Current Price: $15
Predicted Price Monday: $15-20+
Odds to Top 8: 1 to 4
Chandra: Destined to Fail?
Will Chandra find a home this season?
Chandra has a lot to prove at this Pro Tour or her price rebellion may be over with. Originally held up as the stand out card of Kaladesh, this multi-talented planeswalker has failed to put up a strong performance, with even the WR Vehicles and Humans decks preferring to run Gideon, Ally of Zendikar in either the main or the board. In the world of Copter beatings, Chandra’s inability to control the board at sorcery speed or add board presence like Gideon or Nissa, may see her price drop hard towards $10 by next week. I have stayed well clear of this card so far, and would be outing any copies I had before the price party stops. On the outside chance that she makes Top 8 in an impressive and sustainable deck, her price could float back towards $40, but only if she were a main deck three or four of.
Current Price: $28
Predicted Price Monday: sub $20
Odds to Top 8: 6 to 1
Panharmonicon: Too Cute or The Real Deal?
Earlier this week, Saffron Olive over at MTGGoldfish ran an Against the Odds article that featured him playing a Panharmonicon deck that was absolutely devastating once it got rolling. The deck centered around it’s namesake artifact, doubling up on comes-into-play triggers on everything from Glint-Nest Crane, Filigree Familiar and Prophetic Prison to Reflector Mage, Verdurous Gearhulk and Cloudblazer. Panharmonicon spiked instantly on Magic Online, moving from 1tix to over 2 tix and providing 100% gains overnight. Paper copies have now spiked from $2.50 to nearly $10 and inventory levels are low across the board. Could this be the super secret tech of Pro Tour Kaladesh?
I wouldn’t get too excited about the possibility until it shows up on camera and does well. The games Saffron played earlier this week weren’t against the world’s best, and a four mana artifact may still be too clunky for a format this fast. That being said, paper copies of the card have spiked hard from $2.50 to close to $10, so people are clearly excited about the card.
Ultimately, Panharmonicon does exhibit one of my favorite speculation scenarios: a potentially undervalued Standard breakout that will be a great long term hold regardless based on casual and EDH demand. So far, I’ve purchased a few playsets at $10/set, and I’ll be happy to hold those if a crazy streamlined version of the Standard deck doesn’t appear at the Pro Tour or I don’t get a chance to out them over $30/set this weekend.
Current Price: $10
Predicted Price Monday: $6
Odds to Top 8: 3 to 1
Electrostatic Pummeler: A Push To Pummel?
Some of the early buzz heading into this Pro Tour is coming from a RG Energy deck that looks to pump the power on an Electrostatic Pummeler and add double strike to offer up a decent impression of Modern Infect. This deck is currently hovering under 3% of the MTGO meta, but with the right draws this may be the fastest way to deal twenty damage in the format. The card has spiked from $1 to $5 in the last few days, so it has plenty to live up to this weekend.
Current Price: $5
Predicted Price Monday: $4
Odds to Top 8: 3 to 1
Metalwork Colossus: Too Big to Battle?
Another deck that has been making in-roads in the online meta is a U/B deck that features four copies of Metalwork Colossus and three copies of Skysoverign, Consul Flagship, Foundry Inspector, Elder Deep-Fiend and Cultivator’s Caravan and a pile of incidental artifacts. The deck also finished 45th at SCG Indy two weeks ago, and with the Colossus still available at $1 in paper, while it has tripled up online might be a hint at a bigger future for this card.
Current Price: $1
Predicted Price Monday: $3
Odds to Top 8: 5 to 1
Gideon, Ally of Zendikar: The Real Chandra?
Gideon, Ally of Zendikar is showing up in multiple decks at present, including WR Vehicles, WR Humans, WG Aggro and even UW Control, and often as a 3 or 4-of. A case could be made, that should this powerful mythic planeswalker show up in the Top 8 in at least a couple of different decks, this card should be headed toward $25 or $30, trading off some value with Chandra, the falling star.
Current Price: $20
Monday Price: $20+
Odds to Top 8: 1 to 2
Aether Hub: The Little Uncommon That Could
Aether Hub is quietly one of the most purchased cards in Kaladesh, with the mana fixing land making appearances in the majority of decks in the field in a format with limited options for color fixing. An uncommon from a fall set setting up shop at $5 is nearly unheard of, but looking at the current online inventory levels, it’s possible that this card could finish the weekend even higher.
Current Price: $4
Monday Price: $6+
Odds to Top 8: 1 to 20 (ie inevitable)
Do you have an outsider pick? Share it in the comments!
Stay tuned for Round by Round MTGFinance coverage of Pro Tour: Kaladesh all weekend!
James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.
So I’m going to be the contarian voice with the Pro Tour in Hawaii: I don’t think there is a lot of money to be made by trying to stay ahead of the spikes and chasing the new hot tech.
Actually, let me rephrase that: I don’t think there’s a lot of extra money to be made this weekend.
The Pro Tour this weekend is going to showcase the best of the best playing for a lot of money. Teams of professional players have been huddling and practicing for some time, getting ready, debating pick orders, choosing sideboards, etc.
We will get to watch them, and we will see immediate effects on prices. The important thing to note, though, is that value is only to be gained in one of two ways:
Selling at a price before the price drops lower.
Buying at a price before the price increases.
So if you’ve got TCG loaded and you’re ready to buy at a moment’s notice, I want you to stop for a second. How many are you going to buy? And how many are you going to sell?
Chances are, unless you manage a storefront, you’re not going to buy too much. The question also begs, why are you buying? If you’re trying to acquire a supply of a card (let’s use Fumigate as an example) in order to sell it at a higher price, are you ready for the associated fees and shipping and the time problems?
At this point I want to refer you to Travis’s awesome piece from more than two years ago, and it still holds very true: “My Spec Quadrupled But I Only Made 75 Cents Each” because he does an excellent job detailing the problems of cashing in when you hit it big.
Travis doesn’t bring up PucaTrade, which gives you an approximation of retail value, but in real terms, you’re going to have a very hard time making big money on stuff you buy, especially if you’re buying a lot of something. PucaTrade allows you to send out things before they crash, but it’s not an exchange built for speed.
Now, I’m not all doom and gloom. Being quick to act means you can get things cheap that you’re going to play with, and that is something I’m all for. It is a really terrible feeling, being keenly aware that this $10 card was just $5 a couple of days ago. That’s real money because it’s saved. We also have the officially-named ‘fear of missing out’ which means that we are anxious about not being aware of an opportunity, of not getting in quick enough.
So for example, if a White-Blue control deck goes on camera and wipes the floor with a Smuggler’s Copter deck, and the WU player has 4x Fumigate, then lots of people are going to play follow the leader and pick up a set of Fumigate, which will climb the price. Let’s say it doubles and hits $5.
Being early to act can be worth the $10 you just saved on a playset of Fumigate. Good job!
What I do not want you to do is be the person who is buying Fumigate during the spike at $4 or so. It’s not topped out, but it’s slowing and you want to get your set before it hits a higher price. In this case, I’m going to tell you to calm down. Almost all of the cards that spike during the Pro Tour will travel back down. Cards have to see a lot of play, too.
Think Kozilek’s Return. That’s kept a price. But so many other cards don’t keep the heights they hit, and go right back to a good level, especially the brand-new cards from the set that’s still being opened. For instance, the darling of PT Eldritch Moon was Emrakul, the Promised End.
See that graph? It sure did spike in price for a couple of days…and then went back as more were opened. This is not a trend you want to be chasing.
It’s not impossible for you to make money this weekend. You will most likely gain value this weekend if you move fast on the cards that see a lot of play, but gaining value is not the hard part. The hard part is trying to make money off the continued climb. As Travis pointed out, you’re buying at a low retail price, but you’re probably not going to sell at a retail price.
So my advice to you this weekend is to sit back and watch. Don’t feel like you’re going to miss out. You can list those few cards on eBay. Avoid the fees, trade it away. Try to relax and enjoy the top 8 in Hawaii!
I don’t think you can gain enough value from high-speed trades and resales to make it worth your time. This puts me at odds with a lot of others, but it’s how I feel and I want you to take a deep breath and just enjoy the best in the world play this awesome game.
MAGIC: THE GATHERING FINANCE ARTICLES AND COMMUNITY
