Grinder Finance – How Vegas saved Tarmogoyf

I was writing an article about the Pro Tour and cards to watch but that’s kind boring.  We got the Grand Prix schedule for next year (you can find it here) and it’s great!  There’s one very big event next year much like last year.  Grand Prix Las Vegas will likely be the largest Magic event of the year.  Maybe of all time, topping the previous Grand Prix Las Vegas.  But probably most notably, is this GP Vegas is not format “TBD”.  It’s not even limited.  It’s unlikely there will be any limited release product to headline that weekend.  And that’s great!

Wait were you expecting me to complain that they’re not using that weekend to hold a sealed Modern Masters 2017 Grand Prix?  It’s actually the best possible scenario if there is a limited print run set (like Modern Masters and Eternal Masters) that it doesn’t go to a huge limited Grand Prix.  What has happened in the past and will continue to happen in the future is large portions of the print run can be bought up by vendors and keep prices high on cards that would otherwise stagnate and fall.  Grand Prix Las Vegas 2015 saved Tarmogoyf from that fate.

tarmogoyf

Look at this price graph.  Tarmogoyf is consistently going down and the buylist price is a miserable $70.  All of a sudden the buylist price spikes and by June 1st it looks like Tarmogoyf bottomed out for a day.  It’s pretty easy to see what happened here.  I have some pictures on my phone from that weekend.

hotlist 1

This sign (which wasn’t even the first one they put out) “saved” the price of Tarmogoyf. When there is a huge room with tons of vendors looking to compete to buy cards on a weekend you best believe they will match each other.  This store’s buy prices were so far and away the best that everyone had to increase their buylist prices to even get a sniff of someone selling them cards.  Sure some stores like Coolstuff probably kept it low and just bought their more casual bread and butter cards but a lot of vendors don’t operate that way.

This also puts a strain on the supply on other online sites because people see these buylist numbers and gain a new appreciation for the value of their cards.  There is definitely a level of consumer confidence in the price of a Tarmogoyf that makes them reluctant to sell them for lower buylist prices.  If Joe Schmoe was thinking of selling the Goyf he cracked in his one pack of Modern Masters 2015 online because he saw vendors are paying $125 for it then it causes the prices of other Tarmogoyfs to increase.  It’s the rising tide lifts all ships effect.

hotlist 2

Later in the weekend they moved down to a slightly more sane $115 – which is still more than you can pay to buy a Tarmogoyf 15 months later!  But the real question now, when you can find Tarmogoyf for $110 on aggregate sites like TCGPlayer, is this still too expensive?  Had a large portion of the available Tarmogoyfs not been opened in Las Vegas what would the price look like?   Maybe it would be like the new Force of Will.  While there is not great data yet due to it’s age, I can say for a fact that Force of Will is trending upward despite an infusion of supply.  It’s possible once again that a store has propped up the low supply artificially raising the floor or perhaps people underestimated how many are actually in circulation.  I’m not sure which it is but I can guarantee it would be light years worse if GP Columbus (the same weekend as the release of Eternal Masters) was an limited print run limited Grand Prix.

Going Forward

I do believe there will be a Modern Masters 2017 and some other weird summer set to sandwich a standard booster set.  I have a feeling it worked out too well for Wizards of the Coast this year not to do it again.  What will be in it?  I suppose that’s anyone’s guess but I’m expecting a return of Sir Tarmogoyfington III as well as a plethora of reprints from Innistrad block.  Liliana of the Veil, Snapcaster Mage, Craterhoof Behemoth, etc are likely to all be mythic rares.  We will likely get this announcement during one of the two yearly announcements (during the release of Kaladesh and the unnamed block following).

Eldritch Moon

Pro Tour Eldritch Moon

I don’t think the sky is falling and I do believe we will find a deck that consistently beats Bant Company.  What that deck is, I do not know but someone will figure it out.  I expect it to be the brain child of Matt Nass and Sam Black but we will see what happens.  At this point most of the cards in Eldritch Moon have already seen huge decreases in price.  I would recommend picking up anything you might want to play before the Pro Tour and then wait until the middle of September to get the rest.  Right before Kaladesh spoilers will be the best time to get in.

PROTRADER: Recently Printed Eternal Staples

Last weekend I was browsing the All Time Highs and All Time Lows list on MTG Stocks when a frequently played card stood out to me – not because of it’s recent high, but rather due to the fact that it is hitting all-time lows.

Seize

Thoughtseize is the ninth most played card in Modern, according to the same website.  It’s also 37th in Legacy, for some consolation demand.  Yet despite its ubiquitous utility in these two formats, the card simply cannot gain traction from a pricing standpoint.  When Theros rotated out of Standard, Thoughtseize’s eternal playability motivated players to keep their copies for future utility.  As a result, the black sorcery’s price held up fairly well throughout the release of Battle for Zendikar.

Then, when Oath of the Gatewatch departed standard, things got ugly.  Now the card sells at an all-time low on TCG Player, with buy lists topping out with a meager $8 – a far cry from its $17.50 peak back in 2014.  What’s the rationale for this selloff?  Does this signal the end of the age-old strategy of holding rotating cards for inevitable returns?  This week I’ll explore some driving forces behind recent Eternal playable cards to try and get to the bottom of this phenomenon.

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ProTrader: Magic doesn’t have to be expensive.

MTG Fast Finance: Episode 26

MTG Fast Finance is a weekly podcast that tries to break down the flurry of financial activity in the world of Magic: The Gathering into a fast, fun and useful thirty minute format. Follow along with our seasoned hosts as they walk you through this week’s big price movements, their picks of the week, metagame analysis and a rotating weekly topic.

Show Notes: July 30th, 2016

Segment 1: Top Movers of the Week

Selfless Spirit">Selfless Spirit (Eldritch Moon)
Start: $2.75
Finish: $5.00
Gain: +$2.25 (+80%)

Dakmor Salvage">Dakmor Salvage (Future Sight)
Start: $1.00
Finish: $2.00
Gain: +$1.00 (+100%)

Desert Twister">Desert Twister (Arabian Nights)
Start: $7.50
Finish: $16.00
Gain: +$8.50 (+115%)

Fortune Thief">Fortune Thief (Time Spiral)
Start: $1.00
Finish: $2.25
Gain: +$1.25 (+125%)

Statecraft">Statecraft (Mercadian Masques)
Start: $1.00
Finish: $4.00
Gain: +$3.00 (+300%)

Soldevi Excavations">Soldevi Excavations (Aliiances)
Start: $1.00
Finish: $6.00
Gain: +$5.00 (+500%)

Timerian Fiends">Timerian Fiends (Homelands)
Start: $0.50
Finish: $9.00
Gain: +$8.50 (+1,700%)

Segment 2: Cards to Watch

James Picks:

  1. Dark Confidant (Modern Masters 2015) Confidence Level 7: $32 to $45 (+40%, 6-12+ months)
  2. Kozilek, the Great Distortion (Oath of the Gatewatch) Confidence Level 7: $4 to $10 (+150%, 12+ months)

Travis Picks:

  1. Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger">Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger, Battle for Zendikar, Confidence Level 8: $11 to $20 (+80%, 0-12+ months)
  2. Sigil of the Empty Throne">Sigil of the Empty Throne, Magic Origins, Confidence Level 7: $0.25 to $3 (+1100%, 12+ months)

Disclosure: Travis and James may own speculative copies of the above cards.

Segment 3: Metagame Week in Review

SCG Columbus was the first weekend of Eldritch Moon Standard. Bant Company crushed the metagame, representing over 33% of all decks on day two. Where can we look for opportunities in this seemingly lopsided metagame?

Segment 4: Topic of the Week

This week we learned that Eldritch Moon boxes are mappable. What does that mean, and what will the ramifications be?


Stuff You Should Never Buy Again

This week, I want to share something personal with you:

treasure chest

This is a paper chest filled with greeting cards my wife and daughters and I have been adding to for a few years now. Anniversaries, wedding cards, kids’ birthdays, you name it.

We give this chest to my toddlers when they need an indoor activity. When we are cleaning up, I check the price tags and I cringe to think how much money people have spent on these, and conversely, how much I’ve spent on cards for others.

In Magic, there are lots of things to spend money on. Some of them are avoidable. Some aren’t. Let’s go over some of the things you should never buy again.

I want to be clear that if you’re into collecting some of these things, that’s awesome. I’m glad you’re finding a fun niche related to this game, but I’m focusing on what you need to play.

#1: Single Booster Packs

Listen, I’m with you. Holding that pack, thinking about what it could be, anticipating that sweet foil, come on, come on, jump to the rare…(crap). Feel free to fill in the name of any card worth less than a dollar for crap in the previous sentence.

Buying loose boosters at your store is at best scratching a lottery ticket. I’ve written about this before and the odds are never in your favor. Not even this premiere week. You want a card? Buy that card. Buy the playset. It’ll cost less. Even in foil.

This is even true for the uncommons you want. If you buy a box of a set, odds are that you’re not going to get four of a certain uncommon. Drove me batty when that stuff would happen.

Buying loose boosters online is even worse. Mapping packs is a thing. Weighing packs to extract foils is a thing. Peeking through the plastic at pre-Ice Age packs, to pluck out rares, is a thing. Stop buying boosters!

#2: Life pads

I get it. Writing your life total on the match slip is so very unrefined, like you’re struggling for scraps. Also, it’s a small space and you can’t take notes on what happens, cards to look out for, all sorts of things.

You know what you need? A fifty-cent spiral notebook from the grocery store. A small legal pad. Or better yet, one of the huge stack of life pads that vendors give away at big events. One Grand Prix will take care of your needs for years.

I’m not going to link them, but if you spend $12 on a paper pad that nicely bound or $30 on an e-writer, I’m going to know you’re someone with more money than sense. A life pad that can break?? Come on.

#3: Dice

I’m all for sweet dice. I’ve got a couple of Iron Dice here someplace that I can’t put in a bin with other dice because the Iron ones crack the plastic of the others.

Know what else I have? Multiple bags of plastic dice and assorted counters/beads/stones.

And this is after I used to spend a lot of energy tracking down places that would buy old spindowns! Used to be a lot of profit in that, but not anymore.

You need a few dice and a couple of stones. That’s it. Tokens are all over the place, scoop some up after a draft. People leave dice on the floor or on the table all the time. If you spend money on dice, you’re buying tiny art pieces, and that’s cool, but all you need is five D6 and you’re good for 99% of games, unless you play Commander games that get out of hand.

#4: Playmats

Now this is going to piss some of you off. You’ve got playmats that were awesome prizes, that have favored art, or just carry significance. And I’m with you: I’m quite fond of my MTGPrice playmat.

Know what I’m not so fond of? My stack of GP mats. I kept the first couple, and then I realized that I was never going to use them, and I started selling them at the events, which has been great for me. Haven’t regretted a moment of it.

Is there a market where people buy and sell these mats? Absolutely. The art on a mat can make a big difference to its value, such as the two GP Vegas mats.

I’m all for buying the mat you want. And that’s it.

Every extra mat you have is just something you need to store and/or move. Don’t keep them. I’ve yet to see one rip from just being used, even if you fold it instead of roll it.

#5: Fancy deck boxes

I appreciate the art and craftsmanship of Etsy, I really do. There are some amazingly awesome things that you can get for dice, or decks, or even your whole cube.

I have to tell you, I’m hard on my Magic stuff. Boxes get put in the backpack, other things land on them, I squish it when I don’t take off my backpack when sitting on the bus…and so on. Perhaps you’re someone who takes better care of your things than I do, and if you sit down with me, unfold three trays and have everything immaculately organized, I might ask how much it was.

Mostly, you’ll be like the rest of us and have a stack of different things and be mostly put together, and be able to do so for far less money. Deck boxes are useful but replaceable for cheap, on the rare instances that they break. These are also often giveaways at a GP or other event, and if you want to personalize them, I suggest a layer of primer first.

 

 

Look, I’m not trying to make you feel bad about stuff you’ve bought that brings you joy. You’ll notice I left off binders and backpacks/bags from this list, because you’ll find what you need quite easily. Sleeves as well–I turn mine over frequently.

What I want to stop you from doing is spending money on stuff you don’t need to spend money on. Spend your money on all sorts of cards, just don’t go buying accessories that aren’t as needed.

MAGIC: THE GATHERING FINANCE ARTICLES AND COMMUNITY