Pro Tour Shadows Over Innistrad (Draft/Modern): Standard Day 1

April 22, 2016 James Chillcott 4 Comments

Check out our Pro Tour preview over here, and join us for round to round coverage in live blog style below all day.

Round 8: Brad Nelson, on G/R Goggles, is the only other undefeated player at 8-0. Pyromancer’s Goggles could easily climb if this deck makes Top 8, having demonstrated usefulness in multiple shells. Could end up over $15, supply is low.

Round 8: LSV (BG Aristocrats) vs. Valentin Mackl (Bant Company)

In game 1, LSV only hits a Catacomb Sifter on his first Collected Company, but does manage to get a Nantuko Husk in play the turn after. Zullaport Cutthroat joins the team while Mackl fields a bevy of his value creatures to try and create the pressure necessary to keep Luis off of his combo. A mid-game Westvale Abbey activation gets the dangerous demon With many portions of this deck under $1, Cryptolith Rite and Liliana, Heretical Healer may absorb the spike potential.

Game 2 finds a similar board state, with LSV’s deck outpacing the board presence of the Bant Company deck. With Mackl’s relative lack of removal, LSV is free to pursue his flood and sacrifice plans, and Mackl falls to the only 8-0 record of the day.

Michael Majors (U/W Humans) vs. Christian Calcano (Bant Company)

The players split the first two games. In Game 3 Majors has three copies of Always Watching on the table, making his army of white creatures fairly menacing to Calcano on 4 life, despite the presence of both Nissa and Jace in planeswalker mode and set of reasonable blockers. Calcano manages to stabalize, and as time is called he finds a Tragic Arrogance off the top to clear out the board, including two of the Always Watching copies. Calcano keeps a Lumbering Falls, a Sylvan Advocate and his Nissa, Sage Animist vs. a Thraben Inspector and a single Always Watching. Swinging in Calcano thinks he has it, but Avacyn off the top for Majors leads to a definitive block and Majors is able to take the game on the crack back! Majors goes to 7-1.

Deck Tech #4: Adam Jensen (Mardu Control)

This deck is running four copies of Goblin Dark Dwellers to leverage the many removal spells, Read the Bones and Transgress the Mind.

Round 7: LSV (BG Aristocrats) vs. Jeremy Dezani (Abzan Company)

LSV’s deck uses Cryptolith Rite to good effect, being able to tap his creatures for mana, and then sacrifice them to double up. Sexy. Both sides are also on Collected Company, which may well be the card of the tournament. LSV goes over the top on Turn 5 (!) with Ormendahl off of Westvale Abbey and Dezani packs it in for Game 1. In Game 2 LSV swarms the board again and is able to sac his board to Natuko Husk with two copies of Zulaport Cutthroat in play to take the match.

Justin Cohen (BG Aristocrats) vs. Katsuhiro Mori (Bant Company) is our second feature match this round.

Brad Nelson (RG Goggle Ramp) vs. Christian Calcano (Bant Company)

Nelson takes Game 1 off camera. In Game 2 Nelson gets a Dragonlord Atarka on the table, cleans up the board and starts attacking. During the next combat, Nelson casts Fall of the Titans twice (!) off the Pyromancer’s Goggles, surged for a ton and takes the match, moving to 7-0.

Samuel Tharmaratnam (Mardu Control) vs. Kentaro Yamamoto (Bant Company)

Here we have our first appearance on camera of Nahiri, the Harbinger on camera, alongside Livala, the Preserver out of Samuel’s deck. As we come into the match, the players are tied 1-1. Linvala goes toe to toe with a mid-game Avacyn, the board goes clear, and Samuel follows through with a Chandra, Flamecaller and a Goblin Dark Dwellers to reverse the pressure. An awakened Ruinous Path kills Yamamoto’s remaining creature and Tharmaratnam goes to 6-1.

After Round 6, only Dezani, Sochurek, Nelson, Mackl, LSV and Calcano are at 6-0.

Deck Tech #2: Eduardo Sajgalik: Demonic Tentacles

Brand new deck archetype on display using Crush of Tentacles, Demonic Pact and Dark Petition and a bunch of kill spells to control the board and grind out the opponent’s life. Also runs 4 copies of Oath of Jace. Dark Petition has already popped, but keep an eye on Demonic Pact.

Round 6: Valentin Mackl (Bant Company) vs. Shota Yasooka (Esper Dragons)

Coming into the weekend Bant Company was definitely the deck to beat, with a list that applies pressure and grinds with the best of them. Yasooka is on Esper Dragons in an attempt to control the aggro decks, and dictate the pace of the mid to late game. Sylvan Advocate and Avacyn doing the expected level of work. Shota notables include Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy, Ob Nixilis Reignited, Dragonlord Ojutai and Languish.

In Game 1 a timely Dromoka’s Command puts Shota on the back foot, and he falls to the onslaught of violence from Den Protector and Sylvan Advocate.

In Game 2 Yasooka uses Dragonlord Silumgar to steal a buff Tireless Tracker and beats face in a tempo swing that sees Mackl fold his hand a couple of turns later. Game 3 shows off the power of both builds, with Mackl leveraging Reflector Mage, Avacyn, Nissa and Sylvan Advocate to keep Yasooka on the defensive. Nissa buffs the team, and makes Languish ineffectual from Yasooka. The game grinds on, but an incorrect flip trigger on Avacyn ends up leading to an overwhelming game state in favor of Mackl, who moves to 6-0.

Round 6: LSV (BG Aristocrats) vs. Jon Finkel (BG Ramp)

LSV jumps out to an early start and takes Game 1 from one of the greats of the game. In Game 2, Finkel has trouble finding action and LSV goes to 6-0 to start the tournament.

Deck Tech: Craig Wescoe on Mono White Humans

Wescoe breaks down the desire for multiple buff options in the deck, explaining the shift to three copies of Anafenza, King-Tree Spirit to complement the full four copies of Always Watching. Also running four copies of Declaration of Stone.

Dark Petition is also being bought out, having spiked over $8 from $1.50. Will be interesting to see if it can hold that level by generating top table results this weekend. As a potential Modern, Legacy and Vintage card, foils are still available under $10.

Round 5: Seth Mansfield (Esper Control) vs. Jon Finkel (GB Ramp)

Johnny Magic takes game 1 on the back of Nissa’s Renewal, referring to the card as the current Sphinx’s Revelation, a card that similarly drew cards and gained life a few years back. Mansfield’s deck includes Narset Transcendent and Sphinx of the Final Word. Various cards from the Finkel deck are already spiking on Magic Online, including Tireless Tracker, Dark Petition, The Gitrog Monster, Traverse the Ulvenwald and World Breaker. Look for similar moves in paper if the deck proves its value deeper in the tournament.

Team Eureka is on a GR ramp brew with Pyromancer’s Goggles.

Seasons Past is being bought out as Finkel takes Game 2 and the match.

Off camera Brad Nelson on GR Ramp closes out a game by doing over twenty damage with Fall of the Titans in the presence of a Pyromancer’s Goggles.

Shota Yasooka (Esper Dragons) takes down his opponent on GB Aristocrats.

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

Casual Fridays

Money in the Box?

April 22, 2016 Cliff Daigle 5 Comments

Well, Shadows over Innistrad is here, and while I have been wrong about a lot of things, I want to look at one of my most cherished ideas and see if that’s even applicable this time around: Not opening packs/boxes.

There’s 59 rares and 18 mythics, and that counts the double-faced cards. There’s not any strong or official information out there regarding the relative rarity of the double-faced mythics as opposed to regular mythics, but since two of the three double-face mythics are two of the three most expensive cards in the set, maybe there’s something to that.

It’s time look at some cold numbers.

Here’s all the cards currently that have a Fair Trade Price over $2.50. I’m using that as a general cutoff, that means the box price is $90. I know you can beat that price, but that is a pretty optimistic box price.

Just in case you’re curious, though, I’ll note when we pass the MSRP of $4 and when we get to $3, which puts a box at $108, a better price than stores will give yet slightly higher than TCG.

Card Name and Fair Trade Price

Archangel Avacyn $57.49

Sorin, Grim Nemesis $23.99

Arlinn Kord $23.64

Declaration in Stone $17.99

Jace, Unraveler of Secrets ">Jace, Unraveler of Secrets $13.73

Westvale Abbey $12.73

Thing in the Ice $12.35

Relentless Dead $12.05

Olivia, Mobilized for War $11.85

Nahiri, the Harbinger $11.60

The Gitrog Monster $8.23

Tireless Tracker $7.23

Thalia’s Lieutenant $6.98

Mindwrack Demon $5.64

Ulvenwald Hydra $5.64

Anguished Unmaking $5.58

Startled Awake $5.14

Foreboding Ruins ">Foreboding Ruins $4.53

Sigarda, Heron’s Grace $4.38

Traverse the Ulvenwald $4.19

Port Town $4.17

Under MSRP

Only 21 cards at $4 or more, two weeks into the set. Now let’s see what’s under MSRP in value.

Game Trail ">Game Trail $3.98

Always Watching $3.97

Fortified Village ">Fortified Village $3.97

Goldnight Castigator $3.73

Sin Prodder ">Sin Prodder $3.60

Cryptolith Rite ">Cryptolith Rite $3.59

Choked Estuary $3.51

Descend upon the Sinful $3.04

Eight more cards have the average value of a pack. So if you happen to win a cheap eBay auction or something and get your box for $90, there’s an additional pair of cards that are worth the price of a pack:

Drownyard Temple ">Drownyard Temple $2.73

To the Slaughter $2.51

At the most optimistic price, you have a 31/77 chance of making the value of a pack. That’s 40%. Ouch. Not great but not awful? Would you push all-in on a 60/40 hand?

If you get your packs at the TCG price of $108 or so, then you have a 29/77 chance, and that’s a slight decrease to 37%, and at the full MSRP on boosters, it drops further to 27%.

Further Explanation

There’s a couple of flaws with my admittedly basic methodology, and it’s worth addressing them.

First of all, I don’t have any way to account for foils. That’s a random event and a nice bonus, but nothing that can be counted on. For every box with a foil Archangel Avacyn, there’s another box with no foil rare at all. If you get it, great! If you don’t, well, better luck next time.

Second, the distribution of double-faced cards is a little wonky, and you can have a double-faced mythic and a double-face uncommon in the same pack. That’s a weird way to go about collating the boosters but hey, that’s not my job. If this is the price we pay to no longer have box mapping be a thing, I’m all in favor of it.

With that said, though, I have to say that the value is just not there for me. Opening a box is a rush, one I know well. Pack after pack of potential, of going slowly to drag out the anticipation or just tearing into it all in a flurry of Mylar. It’s a great feeling…until it’s gone.

I am obligated to point out that not all mythics are equal. Three of them (Seasons Past, Geralf’s Masterpiece, and Wolf of Devil’s Breach) don’t even make this list. That’s not a surprise in the abstract, as we all know mythics can be powerful and yet still inexpensive, but with so little time in retail stores and draft settings…that’s a lot of value gone and fast.

We have a potential spike in front of us, though, with the Pro Tour starting today.This will begin the dance of ‘who will follow through with orders?’ and ‘I can’t sell this fast enough!’ and the popular ‘oh god the card spiked and I had it on my want list…’ and that’s all an extra layer of price complexity. What cards will be popular? Who will run the table with an unforeseen and effective metagame call?
Still, the advice remains solid: Don’t buy packs. Don’t buy boxes. Don’t buy cases. At this point, you’re going to be lucky to open even equivalent value.

Corbin Hosler

PROTRADER: Catching up on a Busy Week of Finance

April 20, 2016 Corbin Hosler 7 Comments

Things just don’t slow down, do they?

Not only do we have the Pro Tour fast approaching, with (hopefully) less Bant Company making the rounds, but there was also a triple Grand Prix weekend, some big Standard movers and even some rather big Modern news you may have missed.

This is one of the busier times in Magic finance, and the interesting part is that it hasn’t always been this way. In fact, the spring-to-summer part of the year is typically a big lull that I’ve termed in the past the “dead zone” of Magic finance thanks to a Standard format being settled and not much else going on as everyone enjoyed the nice weather rather than slinging magical cards.

It turns out the new block structure may be changing that. There’s been no shortage of interest in Standard since Shadows over Innistrad released, and the Modern unbans have shaken up that format as well.

So on the eve of the Pro Tour, where do things stand?

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Conjured Currency, Douglas Johnson

Natural Crit

April 20, 2016 Douglas Johnson

Hey there, you! I recently reached out on Twitter asking for article ideas, because I’m at a bit of a loss for words. Final exams are coming up, so I’m trying to juggle the whole “school” thing with staying on top of the Magic finance market for your benefit. I appreciate all of my readers who sent me great ideas, so I’m going to splurge this week and try on touch on a little bit of everything instead of saving these up for multiple article ideas like a rational human being. If I end up hitting my head against the computer next week on the night of my deadline, I’m sure I can just fart out another piece of god-tier penmanship about how I should be swimming in Mayor of Avabruck right now if I knew anything about this game. Let’s roll.

The Little Boar that Could

So this little piece of ham is something I’ve been wanting to write about for a while, because it’s just so innocuous at first glance. Is it Modern legal? Nope. Legacy playable? Not even close. Commander appeal? Basically none. The trick here is that it’s actually legal in the Magic Online Pauper league, where it’s printed as a common and sees a little bit of play in Green Stompy lists. There was a Reddit thread on the mtgfinance subreddit about a week and a half ago that gave some excellent insight into why a card like this can appear to be at $7, so I’ll just link that here instead of paraphrasing and regurgitating it up here. /u/another-reddit-guy had some excellent insight into a format that none of the rest of us “financiers” really pay any attention to, and its’ absolutely worth keeping your finger on the pulse of the trends in Pauper if you want to make sure that the next Brindle Shoat doesn’t slip through while you pick bulk.

However, a slight bump in pauper popularity obviously isn’t enough to cause this kind of increase in price. Supply is absolutely a factor, and we can talk quickly about just how low that number is for Planechase. You know that stupid joke I always repeat when mentioning the scarcity of a card? I say that there were basically six packs of Coldsnap or whatever opened, so the supply is extremely low and easy to dry up if even a small spark of demand appears for the card. That holds especially true for all of the cards from Planechase and Planechase 2012, where even the uncommons can be treated as super mythics considering how low the print run was.

Even Amazon has no idea what that card is. That’s not to say Amazon is the hotbed where all the Pauper aficionados buy their “battle boxes” (a new term I learned recently), but you know that supply is a barren desert when there’s a combined total of less than a dozen copies on eBay, SCG, TCGplayer, Coolstuff, Amazon, Cardshark, and Channelfireball combined. Normally I just say “Oh, wait until people start pulling these from their bulk and listing them online, the price will settle at a degree between the pre-spike price and the post-spike price.” This time, I’m not sure there are enough of these in bulk to satisfy that growing Pauper demand. If you’re in the market for these to build your battle box, I’d still avoid paying anything over $4 though.

MTGTop8Shoat — This is how much play the little boar sees, at most. Yes, that’s enough.

Planeswalking Segue

So if an uncommon that sees play as a two of can hit $7, surely the planes from the same set are equally as popular…. right? Well, not exactly. I mentioned this week on Cartel Aristocrats that you should probably go through any of your old oversized Commanders or Planechase cards, and see if any of them are worth anything. After doing a b it of digging, it looks like the real money is in the 2009 and promo planes, not so much the 2012 versions. While this information probably won’t be relevant for the next few collections you buy (I think I’ve only bought three or four collections in my life that had Planechase planes or Archenemy schemes), it’s definitely something that should encourage you to go through your own old stuff if you’ve been playing since these were released. The same goes for the 2011 Commander oversized cards; Kaalia goes for around $8-10 for the supersized version!

So you ran into your basement, pulled out twenty Stairs to Infinity, and you want to turn them into crisp dollar bills. I understand. I was in your situation not too long ago. While I was doing some cleaning last year, I found a pile of schemes and planes from my days as a casual player, and decided to buylist them all to save myself some trouble. While you can technically sell them on eBay or TCGplayer, I can’t speak for how quickly they’ll actually sell. There’s also the added trouble of shipping single oversized cards; They obviously don’t fit into a regular toploader, so you’d have to get creative with the packaging to make sure the card doesn’t get damaged in transit. I had success selling all of mine to ChannelFireball, as they paid the best prices out of all the stores I looked at.

While we’re on the topic of supplies, I’d like to talk very quickly about spindown dice; the kind you get From a Vault of Some Kind, or perhaps a week before a set releases. In my experience, I saw a lot of people throw these away at the last prerelease I went to. I know because I threw mine away, forgetting that it even came with the box. Whoooops. Anyway, that’s okay. The D20 spindowns that come with the prereleases now aren’t really worth anything; most buylists will pick them up for 25 cents each, so don’t feel bad if you can’t find them.

The real fun comes if you have any of these lying around that are from pre-Innistrad era. Most of the spindowns that you see in the picture are $4 or $5 if you check on SCG or Coolstuffinc, except for a couple that I mispriced (can you guess which ones?). I ended up getting around $40 for this lot when I sold them on Twitter, which was a nice buffer to the collection that these came in around a month ago. If you’re an old timer and were around for the “good old days” of Magic (or so I’ve heard, I was like eight years old at the time), you can sell the spindowns from Apocalypse, Onslaught, or Judgment for around $25.

Just another side note about shipping before I take off for the week; Ship spindowns in a PWE at your own risk. While I’ve talked to a few friends about their experiences mailing dice in envelopes, they’ve had mixed results. Some post offices will be comfortable mailing it as a non-machinable letter with just a stamp or two, but my local USPS made me ship it as a small package so I ate $2.50 shipping a single one of these at $5. Gross. Thankfully I was able to ship the rest to a single individual and save a ton on shipping, so find that one guy in your local area who wants to catch ’em all.

Until next week!

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