PROTRADER: Fact Or Fiction – This Week’s Spikes

Another week has gone by and with it another handful of spiking cards are in the books.  This time, though, many of the recent jumps were catalyzed by a very definitive occasion: the recent ban and restricted announcement.  By now, everyone probably knows the changes but I’ll share it here for easy referencing.

B&R

It’s not remotely surprising to see Ancestral Vision, Sword of the Meek, and Thopter Foundry all jump on this news.  But these aren’t the only cards that saw significant appreciation last week.  Peripheral cards like Time Sieve and Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas also increased in price by over 100%.

And then, there are other cards that more than doubled since last week with no apparent cause.  This week I’m going to scrutinize some of the movers and shakers of the week, calling out whether I believe their new price will stick, go even higher, or fall back down to earth.  Each card will either have the right demand base or it won’t: it’s Fact or Fiction Week!

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expensive cards

ProTrader: Magic doesn’t have to be expensive.

PROTRADER: The Miracle and the Sleeper; Introducing HUFAs

Let’s start off by quickly acknowledging the B&R Announcement from Monday. Here is an excerpt from an article I wrote in January, a week or so before Pro Tour: Oath of the Gatewatch:

So why is this time different? The answer is Eye of Ugin. Between Oath and Battle for Zendikar, we suddenly have a respectable amount of colorless Eldrazi creatures along a much broader curve. Eye of Ugin, despite not actually tapping for mana, functions as an extremely powerful accelerant, with the additional ability to find your strongest threats late in the game. When used in conjunction with Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth, Eye of Ugin can tap for mana, making it the closest corollary to Mishra’s Workshop we’ve ever seen (it’s actually better when you are playing more than one creature a turn, but worse in the sense that it’s legendary). Eldrazi Temple similarly functions as a worse Eye of Ugin, providing copies five through eight…

…I also don’t expect this archetype to last another six months.”

All I’m going to say is that ProTraders have been having discussions about this series of events since BEFORE the deck actually broke out. Seems good to me.

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expensive cards

ProTrader: Magic doesn’t have to be expensive.

Coming Back to PucaTrade

Back in December, I wrote about how I was scared of PucaTrade. I was worried about how point buying influences this economy, and recently Travis wrote about what Puca is good for.

I am here, hat in hand, to say that I was wrong. PucaTrade is worth using.

However, it’s not as easy as the developers want to make it sound.

What they want you to believe is that you send off cards, and then you get the cards that you want. For many people, it is exactly that.

However, Puca also offers an interesting look into some of our buying and selling habits, as well as providing some fascinating insights.

So what are the ideas I’ve come around on?

#1: You can get expensive cards, it just won’t happen by itself.

James Chillcott and I had a great conversation on Twitter a few weeks back, about building a network on Puca and being the one who has points available for any card. I scoffed, wanting to keep my free account, but I broke down and got the upgrade to Uncommon so I could offer a bounty on the Gaea’s Cradle I wanted so badly.

Even with my name changed to “10% on Cradle!” I wasn’t getting what I wanted.

Then I saw on Twitter that someone had gotten a new Cradle and wanted to sell it. I asked if he was interested in selling it for points (it was not NM) and we agreed on a price. Done. Now my token deck is ready to rock again.

There’s a lot of people on Pucatrade offering bonuses for their wants, for Power, for foils, you name it. Having the points is very good, but doing the work and making those connections will pay off as well.

#2: Spikes are still handled badly.

In case you like your life under a rock, lots of cards had a spike in price this week after the Banned and Restricted announcement. Several cards on Puca were taken off of want lists by administrators, because the price went very high without a lot of warning.

The example I want to use is Time Sieve.

timesieve

 

Time Sieve is pretty amazing with the Thopter/Sword combo. Five mana gets you five life, five tokens, and an extra turn. Quite the loop and tough to deal with.

Naturally, this card has seen a spike this week, from being about $2, up to $20, and now about $13. PucaTrade, after several cycles of dealing with these spikes, has instituted a system where cards are flagged, and when they are flagged enough, they are not allowed to be traded anymore.

Their reasoning is like this: For every one person who says “2000 points to get a Time Sieve! Awesome!!” there are at least five people who had Time Sieve on their want list when it was 200 points, and did not want the card at the spiked price.

Yesterday, Thursday, I saw that someone had just added Time Sieve to their want list and I clicked to send it, only to have them request a cancellation two hours later because they didn’t want it at the current 1400-point price. Hellaciously annoying.

#3: No system for less-than-NM conditions or foreign languages.

This is more of a problem that you might think, especially considering the number of people who want older cards. It’s next to impossible to find Alpha or Beta cards in NM condition, just because of how things were. Playing in penny sleeves is awful, and I remember the summer when the first ‘black backs’ came out.

So on Pucatrade, someone has to be paying for Uncommon level or more, so that some points can be exchanged. I send a card, and when I get the points transferred, I have to send some points back. Or they send me the card outside of the official trade system, and I send them an agreed-upon number of points as a gift.

Same thing with foreign editions, or signed cards, etc. It’s not unmanageable, but it is sort of a pain.

#4: It’s a fantastic way to turn old cards into new cards!

I kid you not, I carried a playset of Flying Men around in my binder for years. Years! I knew one day I’d meet someone who wanted them.

Spoiler alert: I never did.

However, I did find lots of people on Puca who wanted the playset, or a Goblin General from Portal: Second Age, or my leftover Collective Voyage, or either of my Awakening Zone, or so on, and so forth…

I’ve gotten to turn those into the aforementioned Cradle, lots of EDH foils, and standard specs. Standard cards are incredibly easy to get with PucaPoints, I’ve been looking for a foil Future Sight Graven Cairns for three months now, but when I wanted playsets of Radiant Flames and Painful Truths, those were in my hands within a week.

Pro Tip for foiling out a Commander deck: Get your foil version, and then send the nonfoil out for more points.

#5: Patience, when getting or giving cards.

I don’t remember how long ago or which writer here said it, but they said that one of their screens at work had a Chrome tab on 30-second refresh, checking all day for cards to be sent. I remember reading that and having a lot of reactions, but the main one was, “I can’t check it all day! I can barely check once every 48 hours!”

You don’t need to maximize the refreshes that way, just log in once a day and check on what’s needed. Puca has gotten big enough that cards or points rarely languish.

Same thing with your wants. Have your want list, let it sit. Be patient. Make some connections. Ask people, talk to them. Puca does tell you how many people have a card on their Have list, though as far as I know, you can’t find those people directly.

I’d love to hear your experiences with Puca. Tell me the good and the bad. I’ve been on both sides of the fence, and I can absolutely see a day when I stop using it. I admit, I’ve spent a lot more on stamps than I ever thought I would, and I’ve even had to buy extra toploaders! So let’s hear your thoughts, here in the comments or over in the forums.

MTG Fast Finance Episode 12

by Travis Allen (@wizardbumpin) & James Chillcott (@mtgcritic)

MTG Fast Finance is a weekly podcast that tries to break down the flurry of financial activity in the world of Magic: The Gathering into a fast, fun and useful thirty minute format. Follow along with our seasoned hosts as they walk you through this week’s big price movements, their picks of the week, metagame analysis and a rotating weekly topic.

Show Notes: April 7th

Segment 1: Top Movers of the Week

Declaration in Stone  (Shadows Over Innistrad)
Start: $3.50
Finish: $9.00
Gain: +$5.50(+150%)

Ancestral Vision (Time Spiral)
Start: $20.00
Finish: $40.00
Gain: +$20.00(+100%)

Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas (Mirrodin Besieged)
Start: $15.00
Finish: $40.00
Gain: +$25.00(+166%)

Ulvenwald Hydra  (Shadows Over Innistrad)
Start: $3.50
Finish: $10.00
Gain: +$6.50(+185%)

Archangel of Tithes (Magic Origins)
Start: $6.00
Finish: $18.00
Gain: +$12.00(+200%)

Always Watching (Shadows Over Innistrad)
Start: $1.00
Finish: $4.00
Gain: +$3.00 (+300%)

Time Sieve (Alara Reborn)
Start: $3.00
Finish: $12.00
Gain: +$9.00(+300%)

Sword of the Meek (Future Sight)
Start: $5.00
Finish: $20.00
Gain: +$15.00(+300%)

Squandered Resources (Visions)
Start: $.75
Finish: $5.50
Gain: +$4.75(+633%)

Thopter Foundry (Alara Reborn)
Start: $.50
Finish: $10.00
Gain: +$9.50(+1900%)

Segment 2: Cards to Watch

James Picks:

  1. Secluded Glen Lorwyn, Confidence Level 7: $5 to $10 (+100%, 0-6 months)
  2. Bitterblossom Modern Masters 2, Confidence Level 6: $25 to $35 (+40%, 0-6 months)
  3. Jeskai Ascendancy Khans of Tarkir, Confidence Level 6: $.5 to $5+ (+900%, 12+ months
  4. Eye of Ugin Expeditions, Confidence Level 8: $70 to $150 (+115%, 12+ months)

Travis Picks:

  1. Spell Snare, Modern Masters, Confidence Level 7: $7 to $15 (+115%, 6-12 months)
  2. Darkslick Shores Scars of Mirrodin, Confidence Level 7: $8 to $15+ (+88%, 6-12 months)
  3. Krark-Clan Ironworks Fifth Dawn, Confidence Level 5: $4 to $15 (+275%, 12+ months)

Disclosure: Travis and James may own speculative copies of the above cards.

Segment 3: Modern Banned and Restricted List Update

Modern’s Banned and Restricted List was updated for Shadows Over Innistrad, and it was a doozy! Eye of Ugin departs as we welcome Ancestral Vision and Sword of the Meek. What do these changes have in store for Modern?

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

MAGIC: THE GATHERING FINANCE ARTICLES AND COMMUNITY