Setting Up Day 2

After 8 surprising rounds on Friday, including three rounds of draft and five rounds of Modern, a metagame mix of established decks and exciting new archetypes has emerged to dazzle and amaze. Affinity (13%), Burn (13%) and Infect (13%), archetypes expected to show up here in force, have in fact landed in quantity.

So far however, the top table hype has largely been dominated by the presence of several surprising builds of Eldrazi Aggro strategies (as I correctly predicted before the tournament) that have set aside the BW control builds from earlier this season in favor of highly aggressive builds including cards such as Endless One, Eldrazi Mimic and Matter Reshaper.

At the end of Day 1, only two players stood alone at 8-0, having 3-0’d their drafts and boasting a perfect 5-0 record in Modern.  New Zealand native Jason Chung drove home the power of Blood Moon, in his updated version of Blue Moon, a UR control deck running many of the cards from the now defunct Splinter Twin archetype along with main deck Blood Moons aimed at shutting down the many decks trying to get too fancy with their land base. Standing shoulder to shoulder with Chung is US based player Jiachen Tao and his insanely innovative UR Eldrazi Aggro build. While running the expected core of Reality Smasher and Thought-Knot Seer, Tao also ran multiple copies of Eldrazi Skyspawner, Drowner of Hope and Vile Aggregate to go wide and hit hard as the situation demanded. The coverage team seemed stunned as the “draft deck” continued to mow down one opponent after the other and many of the deck brewers among us will be hard pressed to not root for Tao to continue his streak as the day progresses.

The financial stories of the weekend thus far mostly revolve around the stampede to buy out cards from the various Eldrazi decks that have floated consistently to the top tables.

All of the following cards have enjoyed significant spikes in the last two days.

A common theme here is undervalued Eldrazi rares from the BFZ block, many of which most people overlooked as being Modern playable. Chalice of the Void, a major player in the Delver/Treasure Cruise era of 2014, now finds itself back on centre stage as a key piece of tech in the Channel Fireball version of the Eldrazi Aggro deck, often using Simian Spirit Guide to lock opponents out of the game with early Chalice or faster Eldrazi beats.

Often in need of reliable lands that produce colorless and colored mana, the ascendant Eldrazi are also pushing prices on older pain lands up on the basis that they are suddenly Modern playable dual lands.

Death’s Shadow aggro was the deck of choice for several key European players, but the total number of pilots is relatively low and selling into the hype now is the safest move if you are holding copies and looking for a good exit point.

• Chalice of the Void: $20 to $40 (+100%)
• Endless One: $1 to $2.50 (+250%)
• Endless One (Foil): $3 to $20 (+700%)
• Eldrazi Mimic: $1.50 to $4.50 (+300%)
• Eldrazi Mimic (Foil): $4 to $16 (+300%)
• Death’s Shadow: $4 to $10 (+250%)
• Death’s Shadow (Foil): $10 to $40+ (+400%)
• Sulferous Springs (10th): $3 to $8 (+267%)

Wow, that’s a lot of massive spikes to come out of a single Modern tournament! Clearly, the Splinter Twin/Summer Bloom bans are having the desired impact.

I suspect that it will take several more tournaments before the ideal Eldrazi build becomes clear, but the power level of the archetype, largely derived from Eye of Ugin, is now undeniable in Modern. Non-foil versions of the cards du jour like Endless One, Mimic and Death’s Shadow are likely fine to sell into this hype train, though a solid Top 8 appearance for these cards could potentially yield further gains, especially on foils.

Follow along with us as we stalk the final 5 rounds of Modern play before the cut to Top 8.

Round 12

In Game, Yuyaa’s combo plan goes off as planned, and we’re off to Game 3. Game 3 sees LSV cast a pair of Thought-Knot Seers to empty Watanabe’s hand of relevant combo pieces, and LSV moves to 10-2 with the CFB Eldrazi aggro build centered around Chalice of the Void, Simian Spirit Guide and Eldrazi Mimic.

Owen Turtenwald (Infect) vs Frank Karsten (Affinity)

These guys are both at 8-3 heading into this round and took a game a piece off camera. In Game 3, Owen manages to slip in for a huge eight poison damage and puts exits the round at 9-3. Infect looking like a reasonable contender for a Top 8 slot, while Karsten is likely out of contention.

Martin Muller (Death’s Shadow Aggro) vs. Patrick Dickmann (Affinity)

The Europeans split the first two games as well, with both players at 8-3 so far. In Game 3 Muller manages to land a Stony Silence (a card that enjoyed a recent spike) and limits the action from the Affinity deck, but Dickmann manages to put it away regardless with some aerial attacks. Mulle falls to 8-4 and Dickmann takes an Affinity deck to 9-3.

At the end of this round the tournament is led by Frank LePore, running his own version of Eldrazi at 11-1.

UR Eldrazi Deck Tech

Jiachen Tao explains that the deck just kept winning in testing. Deck went 19-1 on Day 1! 4x of all of Eldrazi Mimic, Eldrazi Obligator, TKS, Reality Smasher. Drowner of Hope, Eldrazi Skyspawner, Endless One, Vile Aggregate. Runiation Guide x 2.

3x Dismember, 3x Cavern of Souls, 4x Eldrazi Temple, Eye of Ugin x4, Gemstone Caverns x1. Scalding Tarn x4 . Tao calls Vile Aggregate a new modern staple (!) and better than Tarmogoyf (!!) in the context of their deck.

Round 13:

Ivan Floch (Eldrazi) vs. William Jensen (Infect)

Flock enters this round at 10-2, while Jensen is at 9-3. Floch quickly takes Game 1, and Jensen gets another bad hand Game 2 to lose the match. Flock goes to 11-2 and seems likely to put an Eldrazi deck in the Top 8.

Frank Lepore (Eldrazi) vs. Andrew Brown (Eldrazi)

Frank leads the pack at 11-1. His Eldrazi build runs Wasteland Strangler, Matter Reshaper and World Breaker as per some earlier builds. Brown is on the UR Eldrazi build. In Game 1 Eldrazi Obligator grabs Worldbreaker and swings for the win, as I quickly nab 10 foil copies of Obligator and marvel at the insanity of this deck and how badly most of us are at evaluating Modern playable cards.Brown takes a quick second game as well, and puts the UR Eldrazi build in first place, with a strong chance of making Top 8.

Bart Lewandowski (Abzan Company) vs. Matej Zatlkaj (Death’s Shadow Aggro)

Both of these players at 9-3. This could determine whether Death’s Shadow or Collected Company get some Top 8 camera time. Zatlkaj goes down to 9-4 and it seems likely that Abzan Company makes Top 8.

Mike Sigrist on Eldrazi also likely to make Top 8 with Eldrazi.

Deck Tech #2: Death’s Shadow Zoo

Fabrizio Anteri describing how they modified the core zoo creature base to accomodate Death’s Shadow and increase % of hands that provide Turn 3 kills. Death’s Shadow is run of a 4-of. Thoughtseize x3 main. Street Wraith x4 makes the jump from Living End to help reduce your life total fast enough. 3x Become Immense, 4x Temur Battle Rage also in the deck and possibly highlight that these foils are under-priced at present since they keep showing up in various Modern aggro builds. Also running 4x Mishra’s Bauble. Lands are made up of a pile of shock and fetch lands to ensure low enough life totals to make use of Death’s Shadow.

Round 14:

LSV (CFB Eldrazi) vs. Frank LePore ( Black Eldrazi)

LSV lives out my theoretical magical x-mas land as he drops double Mimic off of Eye on Turn 1, follows up with a Thought-Knot Seer, and destroys Frank on Turn 3. In Game 2 LSV keeps a threat light hand, and Lepore jumps out in front with Mimic, Reshaper and Thought Knot Seer to own the beat down and even things up. Both players playing for Top 8.

Game 3 is one of the best on camera of the entire tournament with LSV geting Frank down to 1 before a board stall kept tension for several turns, finally being broken by the combination of an Oblivion Sower and a Gut Shot off the to guarantee LSV his next Pro Tour Top 8!

Jiachen Tao (UR Eldrazi) vs. Samuel Pardee (CFB Eldrazi)

Triple Eldrazi Skyspawner from Tao off two islands and a Shivan Reef, puts Pardee on the back foot early in the first game. An Obligator seals the game on the next turn.

Off camera Shuhei Nakumura goes to 12-2 on Eldrazi, putting another monster brew in the Top 8. Ivan Floch also goes to X-2 with Eldrazi, beating Infect. Half of the Top 8 likely to be Eldrazi.

Round 15

Jiachen Tao (UR Eldrazi) vs. Kentaro Yamamoto (Through the Breach)

This UR Eldrazi deck went 19-1 in Day 1 between its various players. Yamamoto’s deck features Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy, which could be noteable if this deck makes Top 8 since Jace is seeking prominent homes in the format. Game 1 is won on the back of a newly played Ruination Guide, allowing Tao to get in for a pile of damage. In Game 2 a timely Stubborn Denial stops the first combo attempt from Yamamato, but a Faithless Looting leads to a Goryo’s Vengeance and into Emrakul to wipe the board and the Japanese players takes the game to force a tie breaker. In Game 3 a Thought-Knot Seer off the top takes out a critical Through the Breach and the UR Eldrazi deck goes to 12-3 and makes Top 8 for sure.

Off camera LSV loses to Patrick Dickmann, putting both at 12-3. Paul Cheon finds a Galvanic Blast off the top to put himself in Top 16 for a very solid finish.

Dech Tech: Eldrazi CFB

• 4 Reality Smasher
• 4 Thought-Knot Seer (“best card in deck”)
• 4 Matter Reshaper(“like Kitchen Finks”)
• 4 Eldrazi Mimic
• 4 Simian Spirit Guide
• 4 Endless One
• 2 Spellskite
• 4 Chalice of the Void
• 4 Dismember
• 2 Ratchet Bomb
• 4 Eye of Ugin
• 4 Eldrazi Temple
• 4 Blinkmoth Nexus
• 3 Mutavault
• 4 Ghost Quarter
• 3 Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth
• 2 Wastes

Our Top 8 is so far set to include:

• Shuhei Nakamura (Eldrazi)
• Ivan Floch (Eldrazi)
• LSV (Eldrazi)
• Jiachen Tao (UR Eldrazi)
• Pascal Maynard ( Affinity)
• Andrew Brown (UR Eldrazi)
• Frank Lepore (Eldrazi)
• Patrick Dickmann (Affinity)

With that, the financial signals are clear. The Eldrazi cards are likely to hold their spike for a while, but upside on the more expensive ones and foils may be held back for feat of a banning on Eye of Ugin.  The UR Eldrazi decks still looks underrated financially, as many of the key foils have not moved much today.

Join us tomorrow for one of the best Top 8s of all time based on talent, and one of the least diverse in terms of archetype.

The stage is set for three days of amazing Magic: The Gathering duels. With the recent banning of both Splinter Twin and Summer Bloom, we are in position to experience a brand new meta-game with over a dozen viable archetypes. After weeks of secretive testing, the top Magic teams on the planet have gathered for another epic battle between top Magic: The Gathering pros from across the globe. Over $250,000 USD is up for grabs, with the winner taking home a hefty $40,000 after three days of intense competition in Atlanta, USA.

As you may recall the Pro Tour now features a mix of booster draft (Oath-Oath-BFZ) and constructed formats (Modern in this case) with 3 rounds of draft Friday morning, followed by 5 rounds of Standard starting around 1-2pm EST.

For the MTG Finance community, the question of the day is which decks will rise to dominance in the post-banning Modern field. At the last two StarCityGames Modern Classic tournaments the top 8 included a relatively predictable field of Infect, Burn , Tron, Affinity, Jund and Scapeshift and multiple instances of Merfolk but it remains to be seen whether any of the major pro teams have managed to hold back an especially spicy brew that could establish a position of dominance this weekend.

Could the plethora of new Eldrazi deck enablers from Oath of the Gatewatch take some version of that deck to the top tables on the back of overpowered mana acceleration? Will an underplayed deck from the previous metagame suddenly end up perfectly postioned? Will there be a chance to get in on a must-have card that shows early promise or will the hype train leave the bandwagon speculators out in the cold without buyers come Monday morning?

So far the Expedition lands in Oath of the Gatewatch have failed to suppress mythic and rare prices in that set to the extent that occured with Battle for Zendikar. We also have a Standard rotation on the horizon in April, so any cards from Khans of Tarkir/Fate Reforged may be slow to respond to camera time. Perhaps more opportunity lies with any remaining Modern staples that have so far failed to hit a spike during the January buying frenzy last month.

Many of the top teams have been in stealth mode for the last couple of weeks, furtively holed up in hotels and AirBnB pads, attempting to break a format open that has is as diverse and open as it’s ever been.

Pre-Game Top 8 Contenders

The early weeks of the new Modern format have demonstrated a fairly diverse set of Tier 1 strategies that have a chance to take the trophy this weekend:

Aggro

• Infect
• Affinity
• Temur Delver/UR Delver
• Zoo Burn
• Boggles
• Merfolk
• Eldrazi Aggro (unproven, but likely to show up on power level)

Mid-Range/Control

• Jund
• Tron
• Eldrazi Mid-Range
• BW Tokens
• Abzan Company
• Grixis Control
• Lantern Control

 

Combo

• Scapeshift
• Goryo’s Vengeance
• Ad Nayseum
• Storm

With all of the intensive team testing this week there’s also the distinct possibility that this weekend will mark the debut of a sweet new brew, with my bet being on either an Eldrazi Aggro strategy or an updated combo deck using new pieces from Oath of the Gatewatch. With the Modern rounds starting before most of us are home from work, the stage is set for first mover advantage if an unexpected deck jumps out to an early lead in the hands of a reliable pilot. Which deck are you rooting for?

Cards to Watch

With many Modern staples already having experience large price spikes in the last month, most of the speculation potential lies with relatively new or long shot Modern staples. Here are a few of the interesting cards on our radar this weekend:

Inkmoth Nexus: Poised to Poison

Already on the receiving end of a spike this week, this single printing Infect 4-of from the deck that won the last major Modern tournament has relatively few copies available under $40. With a reprinting unlikely prior to Modern Masters 2017, there is definitely room for this card to top $50 on the strength of further Top 8 appearances. Noble Hiearch, a previously $80 card, could also be set for gains as a 4-of in Infect, with the MM2 foils being particularly low.

Odds to Top 8: 4 to 1

The Oath Eldrazi Gang: Eldrazi Mimic, Thought-Knot Seer, Reality Smasher

B/W Eldrazi had already proven to be a viable archetype in Modern before the release of Oath of the Gatewatch, largely on the back of the broken combo of Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth and Eye of Ugin allowing for the generation of the equivalent of four mana on the second turn. The downside to that strategy was a vulnerability to get stalled out before hitting Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger mana. Now however, the Eldrazi pilots have a plethora of options in the 2 to 5 casting cost range, including some incredibly efficiently creatures with built in card advantage. Will a new Eldrazi brew manage to take a top slot and prove the longevity of the archetype? Could Eye of Ugin be too good for the format? Let’s see how it all plays out.

Odds to Top 8: 5 to 1

Respect the Fish: Harbinger of the Tides

Merfolk has quietly been putting up big results all season in Modern despite being dismissed by many players as Tier 2. At the SCG Classic in Atlanta two weeks ago, Merfolk finished 2nd, 3rd and 12th, which is as close to dominant as any deck ever gets in Modern.

Meanwhile, Harbinger of the Tides has largely been untouched by the recent Modern spikes, despite being a constant 4-of in the deck. This resistance to price movement is likely sourced from a combination of price repression from Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy being the same set (Origins) and the fact that the card is limited to use in Merfolk alone, but a great result this weekend could finally mark this card as a Modern staple and result in solid price appreciation.

Side note: Keep an eye on Spreading Seas this weekend, as a key Merfolk common with a single printing, capable of demonstrating gains alongside Harbinger.

Odds to Top 8: 8 to 1

Jace, Vrin’s Prodigy: A Modern Player

  

Once an underestimated $10 pre-order, Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy has now blown through the ceiling for a Standard legal mythic, spiking above $80 before falling back to $65 recently. An ever-present Standard staple and a card that sees play all the way back to vintage, Jace has largely been absent at the top tables of Modern other than in Grixis control builds championed by the likes of Patrick Chapin. At $90-100, foils are currently displaying a multiplier well below the usual 2x for a multi-format staple, but any significant camera time for this card at the biggest Modern tournament of the year could push the price tag up over $150.

Odds to Top 8: 20 to 1

Here are some other interestingly cheap cards, that could spike hard on unexpected strong play this weekend:

• Descendant’s Path: This previously ignored rare from Avacyn Restored has long been in the same long-shots group as cards like Seance. Some buzz on social media this week speculating on a Conduit of Ruin/Path/Emrakul combo in an Eldrazi brew has led interested parties to buy out the card online. With no results of any kind, this one is likely to fall back to earth quickly, but any camera time at all might secure the current gains?
• Jeskai Ascendancy: This formerly dominant Standard player has been sidelined for months at below $1, but recently gained new combo pieces in Oath of the Gatewatch that could inspire an enterprising pro to try and combo off in Modern.  Odds 20 to 1

Stay tuned for Round by Round MTGFinance coverage of Pro Tour: Oath of the Gatewatch all weekend!

Round 4: Christian Calcano (Jund) vs. Ben Stark (Mardu Mid-Range)

Ben Stark’s opening hand includes Ajani Vengeant, Shambling Vent, Abbot of Keral Keep, Lightning Bolt and Path to Exile, showing off a brand new archtype. Both Abbot and Vent have big upside if they are further entrenched as Modern staples. After some back and forth Ben Stark takes Game 1 after a flurry of removal takes out Calcano’s threats. In Game 2, Calcano dies to his own double-draw off two Dark Confidants. Stark goes to 1-0.

Off camera, a Death’s Shadow apparently just double striked someone to death. Spicy!

Matej Zatlkaj (Death’s Shadow Aggro) vs. Shota Yasooka (Affinity)

We enter the match with the players matched at one game a piece.  Shota Yasooka has Thought-Knot Seer in after sideboarding, a first on camera for Affinity. Stony Silence comes down a few turns in and injures the aggression for Shota.

Alejandro Cesa (Zoo Burn) vs. Bartlomie Lewandowski (Abzan Company)

These players trade off a game a piece. Anafenza, Foremost combo takes Game 3 for Batlomie.

Off camera, a Mono Black Eldrazi list with 3x Pack Rat, and 4x Endbringer (!) just took match 1 and will be on camera next round. This underestimated Eldrazi is just $1 for foils at present, but has three versions in circulation holding it back.

Round 5: Luis Scott-Vargas (Eldrazi) vs. Eric Froehlich (Kiki-Chord)

These players take a game each, with LSV running 4x Endless One, 4x Eldrazi Mimic, 4x Thought-Knot Seer. TKS into Mimic into Endless One puts the match away quickly, and LSV takes it.

After Chalice of the Void shut down an opponent on Turn 1 out of Shuhei’s Eldrazi build, a spike is on for the card, along with several key Eldrazi pieces. Eldrazi on the move include Eldrazi Mimic and Endless One. Pack Rats have doubled in price on MTGO in the last hour.

Dech Tech 1: Affinity w/ Frank Karsten

Fairly standard review of a known Tier 1 deck here.

Ben Stark is 5-0, having won 2 rounds with his Mardu Aggro/Control build.

Round 6:

Thiago Saporito (Eldrazi) vs. Jason Chung (Blue Moon)

Thiago also running 4x Mimic and 4x Endless One as well. Batterskull takes Game 2 for Chung. Jason Chung takes Game 3 as well to win the match.

Ondrej Strasky (Eldrazi) vs. Paulo Vitor Damo Da Rosa (Eldrazi)

Players trade a game a piece. Matter Reshaper on camera.

UR Eldrazi Skyspawner just took down Frank Karsten playing Affinity!

Round 7: 

Raymond Perez, Jr (Infect) vs. Martin Muller (Death’s Shadow Aggro)

Death’s Shadow build back on camera in the hands of Martin Muller, featuring the namesake card as well as Temur Battle Rage, a card whose foils are still available at $3 despite showing up in numerous aggro Modern decks. Infect manages to steal Game 1 on an uber-pumped Dryad Arbor, slipping in non-poison damage with Muller’s shields down. Muller takes the match on the back of Death’s Shadow, Goblin Guide, Become Immense and Lightning Bolt.

Jason Chung (Blue Moon) vs. Alex Majlaton (Affinity)

Chung puts multiple copies of Pia & Kiran Nalaar into play and takes control of the match. Alex shows off the usefulness of Sea Gate Wreckage in colorless decks in Game 2. Chung manages to take Game 3 as well despite the repeated card draw from Alex.

Off-camera Ben Stark goes to 6-1 with his Mardua aggro control build.

Round 8

Jiachen Tao (UR Eldrazi) vs. Bartolie Lewandowski (Abzan Company)

The UR Eldrazi deck features Ruination Guide, Drowner of Hope, Eldrazi Skyspawner , Vile Aggregate and Eldrazi Obligator in multiples! The Abzan Company deck is running Liliana, Heretical Healer. Gavony Township ends up winning through a large board stall, and Lewandowski takes Game 1. In Game 2 a flurry of Vile Aggregates and Skyspawner beatings push the Abzan Company to the brink and beyond and the match is tied. Another board stall in Game 3 is broken up via the combination of Dismember and Vile Aggregate and UR Eldrazi goes to 8-0!!!

LSV Deck  Discussion: Eldrazi Mid-Range

LSV claims that the Eldrazi deck may be the best Pro Tour deck since Caw-Blade.

Day 1 Wrap-Up

Only Jiachen Tao (UR Eldrazi) and Jason Chung (Blue Moon) are 8-0 at end of Day 1! Martin Muller is 7-1 on Death’s Shadow. Lewandowski at 7-1 on Abzan Company. PVD at 7-1, alog with Frank Lepore, William Jensen, LSV (Eldrazi), Paul Cheon (Eldrazi) and Andrew Brown.

The stage is set for an exciting Day 2.

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.